Semiconductor Industry Evolution:

The Moores Law and New Trends

Gordon Moore and the original graph

representing Moores law

http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/
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Versions of Moores law
Moore's law describes a
long-term trend in the
history of computing
hardware. Since the
invention of the
integrated circuit in
1958, the number of
transistors that can be
placed on an integrated
circuit has increased
exponentially, doubling
approximately every two
years. 2
Micro-processor evolution

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Versions of Moores law

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Versions of Moores law

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 Versions of Moores law

Density at minimum cost per transistor. It is not

about just the density of transistors that can be
achieved, but about the density of transistors at
which the cost per transistor is the lowest. As more
transistors are put on a chip, the cost to make each
transistor decreases, but the chance that the chip will
not work due to a defect increases. In 1965, Moore
examined the density of transistors at which cost is
minimized, and observed that, as transistors were
made smaller through advances in photolithography,
this number would increase at "a rate of roughly a
factor of two per year". 6
 Versions of Moores law

Cost per transistor. As the size of transistors has

decreased, the cost per transistor has decreased as
well. However, the manufacturing cost per unit area
has only increased over time, since materials and
energy expenditures per unit area have only
increased with each successive technology node.

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 Versions of Moores law

Computing performance per unit cost. Also, as the size

of transistors shrinks, the speed at which they operate
increases. It is also common to cite Moore's law to refer
to the rapidly continuing advance in computing
performance per unit cost, because increase in
transistor count is also a rough measure of computer
processing performance. On this basis, the performance
of computers per unit costor more colloquially, "bang
per buck"doubles every 24 months.

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 Versions of Moores law
Manufacturing Costs and Moore's Second Law

As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the

cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an
opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have
increased steadily with each new generation of chips.
Rising manufacturing costs are an important
consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law. This had
led to the formulation of "Moore's second law," which is
that the capital cost of a semiconductor fab also increases
exponentially over time.

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 Versions of Moores law
(cont.)

Materials required for advancing technology (e.g.,

photoresists and other polymers and industrial
chemicals) are derived from natural resources such as
petroleum and so are affected by the cost and supply of
these resources. Nevertheless, photoresist costs are
coming down through more efficient delivery, though
shortage risks remain.

The cost to tape-out a chip at 90 nm is at least

US$1,000,000, and exceeds US$3,000,000 for 65 nm.
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Versions of Moores law

Moore's Law shown a) as the

traditional time-based
progression, and b) as a
learning curve, plotting
minimum feature size versus
cumulative area of silicon
produced by the industry on a
log-log scale. Projections from
various roadmaps are
included.

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Semiconductor Memory Evolution

12
Year
New Trends: SOI and Strained Si

20 nm thick layer
of silicon-on-
insulator (SOI)
fully depleted
structures.

Source - IBM
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New Trends: Double Gates FET

IBM 14
New Trends: Multi-bridge FET

Samsung Electronics Ltd. (2005) 15

New Trends: Fin-FET

Freescale Semiconductors

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CMOS Technology and New
Materials

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Transistor performance:
Si vs III-Vs

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Transistor future development

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Transistor speed: Increasing
Electron Mobility

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MODFET Depletion and
Enhancement

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Transistor speed, power and
performance

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Transistor speed: A MOSFET vs
Quantum Well Transistor

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The Next Step: Quantum Devices

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