Variational Cloud Analysis Report

Steve Weygandt, Ming Hu, Terra ladwig

NOAA ESRL GSD for FAA AWRP MDE
1. Introduction

This report summarizes the work toward a variational cloud analysis capability being
built within the GSI framework and for use within the RAP and HRRR analysis systems.
Despite the importance of clouds to many atmospheric processes, clouds are generally still
poorly represented in the initial conditions of the state-of-the-art numerical models. This results
in major limitations for short-term weather prediction, particularly for extreme events that can be
uniquely sensitive to moist dynamical processes in cloudy regions. Satellite observations affected
by clouds and precipitation are often discarded, which means that potentially valuable data are
lost. Indeed, the assimilation of such data requires overcoming difficult challenges such as the
accuracy of the radiative transfer models in cloudy conditions, the correction for biases, the
estimation of background and observation errors, the ability to handle strong non-linearities, and
the adaptation for non-Gaussian error distributions and multiple spatiotemporal time scales.
The approach under development focuses on updating the model microphysical
parameters such as cloud liquid water and ice mixing ratios. These are three-dimensional
numerical model fields and the proposed data assimilation algorithm will include them in the
analysis control variable. This approach differs from that currently employed in global models at
operational NWP centers such as NCEP or ECMWF that focus on the assimilation of radiances
affected by both cloud/non-precipitating hydrometeors and precipitation-related
hydrometeors. The procedure assimilates cloud base observations from surface METAR stations
and the cloud top observations from geostationary satellite.

Tasks completed include:

Used current subroutines to ingest cloud-top pressure/temperature and ceilometer-estimated

cloud ceiling height and cloud fraction

Added the cloud water+ice mixing ratio as control variable in variational cloud analysis:
The cloud water+ice mixing ratio was used as control variable because the cloud
observations from METAR cloud ceiling and satellite cloud top only contain information
on the total cloud. The GSI code was changed to use the cloud water+ice mixing ratio as
control variable in variational analysis and the code was added to get cloud water
water+ice analysis increment and add those increments back to the background cloud
water and ice mixing ratio fields.
To test this new control variable, the innovation of cloud water+ice observation was
generated using the analysis results of the GSD non-var cloud analysis as proxy
observations (pseudo-cloud-observations). Then the background error covariance for
cloud was configured to make analysis result close fit to the pseudo-cloud-observations.
The test using variational cloud analysis generated very similar results as the GSD non-
var cloud analysis. (Fig. 1)
Figure 1. Analysis increment for cloud water mixing ratio at model level 4 from non-VAR cloud (LEFT
panel) and from new developed var cloud analysis (RIGHT panel)

The new observation operator for METAR cloud ceiling was developed to generate the
innovations in terms of the cloud water + cloud ice (total cloud) mixing ratio based on
location of the cloud ceiling.
This operator was tested with single HRRR case. To make the impact of METAR cloud
base clear, the background error variance for total cloud was set to a very large number
and the impact scale was set very short. Fig. 2 shows analysis increments of cloud water
mixing ratio (kg/kg) from using METAR ceilometer from non-var and var cloud analysis.
The cloud building and clear and their values are quit similar in comparing the no-var and
var cloud analysis, except the var-cloud analysis shows very short impact scale.

Figure 2. Analysis increments of cloud water mixing ratio (kg/kg) from using METAR ceilometer observations in a
HRRR case. The level is HRRR model level 6, which is about 0.5-km AGL. The range of display is from -0.0002
kg/kg to 0.0002 kg/kg. Left panel is no-var cloud analysis; right panel is var-cloud analysis.
 Similar to the operator for the METAR cloud ceiling, another new observation operator for
satellite cloud top products was developed to generate the innovations in terms of the cloud
water + cloud ice (total cloud) mixing ratio based on location of the cloud top.
The same case was used to test this new operator and the results are shown in Fig.3. We
can see the clouds are built or cleared at similar areas in non-var and var cloud analysis.
The analysis increment from var cloud analysis is smoother and covers a little larger area.
This is because the cloud top observations from the satellite data have very high
resolution and cover most analysis grid points.

Figure 3. Analysis increments of cloud water mixing ratio (kg/kg) from using satellite cloud top products in a HRRR
case. The level is HRRR model level 15, which is about 3.7-km AGL. The range of display is from -0.0002 kg/kg to
0.0001 kg/kg. Left panel is no-var cloud analysis; right panel is var-cloud analysis.

Experiments were conducted to test the cloud analysis when both METAR cloud ceiling and
satellite cloud top products are used.
Initial results from these tests using both cloud observations reveal smaller analysis
increments associated with METAR observations (fig.4). We are investigating the cause
of these small increments and performing tests with different observation error values,
with satellite observations limited to upper-levels, METAR observations limited low
levels, and single observation tests.
 Figure 4. Cloud water increments in model level 6 from the existing non-var cloud analysis and the
new variational analysis. Upper panel is from the GSD non-var cloud analhysis and the low panel are
from var-cloud analysis with both METAR and satellite observations.

The main difference between the METAR and satellite observations is the observation
density. To compensate for this difference we choose a larger observation error for the
satellite observations. In the future, we are considering ways to thin the satellite
observations without losing important small-scale data content. The observation error
increase allowed both the observation types to have comparable increment magnitudes.
The locations of the increments generally match the existing cloud analysis increments,
however there are some important differences. The variational analysis has notable
larger negative increments (e.g. TX/OK panhandle and Eastern Pacific Ocean) (fig. 4,
 low panel). One potential explanation for the larger areas and magnitudes of the negative
increments is that negative innovations can be computed for each model vertical level
compared to only a small number vertical levels for the positive innovations. We plan to
investigate the analysis differences in more detail by plotting and examining the available
observations compared to the background.

We are testing the observation impact scales to determine an appropriate scale for cloud
information. For example, the same test case as shown above with a larger impact scale
produces smoother increments (fig.5).

Figure 5. Cloud water increments in model level 6 from the new variational analysis.

NCAR developed GENBE to generate the background error covariance for hydrometers
using both NMC method and ensemble method. We are installing this new GENBE to get
new BE including the cloud and balance between cloud and moisture. We had a meeting
with the GENBE developers (8/18/16) and discussed proper execution of this tool. We
need to modify the code to add cloud water and cloud ice so that we can compute cloud
total background error covariances. We are currently testing the code as is with an
example set of RAP data. We plan to meet with the NCAR scientist again to review
results.

The code development was conducted with VLAB GIT and will merge the new code on
top of the current EMC trunk for commit.
 Plan for completing the task:

A significant amount of time has been spent developing and testing the new function for global
non-var cloud analysis and var-cloud analysis. We will continue this work as follows:

1. Commit code to read global satellite cloud top products and to add non-var cloud analysis
driver for GFS.
2. Variational cloud assimilation code:
Modify the code to enable the use of ensemble information for cloud fields for hybrid
assimilation.
Run the GEN_BE 2.0 code from NCAR to create background errors for cloud fields and
the cross correlations.
Retrospective tests for the var-cloud analysis using RAP system to evaluate the impact of
the new var-cloud analysis
Further tuning of observation errors, background errors, and correlation length scales
Submit the code to review and commit the code back to GSI trunk