Religious Research Association, Inc.

Church Growth (And Decline) in a Southern City

Author(s): C. Kirk Hadaway
Source: Review of Religious Research, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Jun., 1982), pp. 372-386
Published by: Religious Research Association, Inc.
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372

CHURCH GROWTH (AND DECLINE)

IN A SOUTHERN CITY
C. KIRK HADAWAY
CenterforUrban
ChurchStudies
Review
ofReligious Vol.23,No. 4 (June1982).
Research,
This studyexaminesthe influence of the urbansettingon the
numerical growth and declineof churches in a southern
city.Using
a typologyof urbanlocation developed byDouglasWalrath, thepaper
showshowgreatly churches are influencedbytheirenvironments. In
one typeof environment noneof thechurches weregrowing, butin
othersettingsall of thechurches wereeithergrowing or at leaston
plateaus.The sourceof thisinfluence appearsto be foundin the
basicstructure of mainline Protestant churches in America.These
tendto be conservative, neighborhood-based and are
organizations
composed of entrenched socialgroups.As such,theyresistchange
whenchangeis necessary and in mostcasesare notonlyaffected by
theirsettings
butare largely controlledbythem.
In additionto demonstrating themassive impactof churchlocation
on growth anddecline, thepurpose of thestudywasalso to illustrate
a case studytechnique forarea studyand churchplanning.
Churches areprofoundly affectedbytheirsettings.To be sure,theymay
grow or decline
in nearlyany urban but
location, in someareasthepossi-
bilitiesforgrowth or declineareclearlybetter(or worse)thanin others.
It is also truethatgoodlocations forgrowth maychangeintopoorloca-
tions,becauseurbanenvironments are notstatic.As housingages or is
revitalized,and as residentsage,moveaway,and are replacedby new-
comers,the entirecharacter of a neighborhood mayundergoa drastic
alteration. Thesechangesnecessarily the churchbecausetheyre-
affect
flectchangesthatare occurring in the population pool fromwhichit
drawsitsmembers. Churches, however, generallytryto ignoretheinflu-
encesof theirsettings andmakeplansforgrowth builton a viewof their
parishas it oncewas (Jonesand Wilson,1974: 41, 45, 107). Thisten-
dencymaypartially stemfromignorance of majortrendsaffecting the
city,butitis alsofosteredbythepublication ofinnumerable books,articles,
and manualson churchgrowth and church planning thatgivelittleor no
attention to theeffectof a church's context.The purposeof thisanalysis
is to helpbalancethisone-sided approachto church planning and also to
provide additional
understanding ofhowthechurch is affectedbyitsdemo-
graphic setting.
The foundation oftherelationship between thechurch anditssurround-
ingenvironment is ratherobvious.The churchexistsas a congregation,
andthecongregation mustbe drawnfromneighborhoods closeenoughto
thechurch to makeit feasibleforresidentsto participatein churchactiv-
itiesona regularbasis.
At one timethe potentialparishof the churchwas quite small since
membershad to eitherwalk or use othermodesof transportationconsid-
erablyless convenient
for long distancecommutingthan the automobile.
However,todaymanypeople are quite willingto drivethree,five,ten or

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 373

evenmoremilesto attendthechurchof theirchoice. Yet thelong-distance

commuteof over fivemilesto churchis not the normamongProtestants
in America. Most stillpreferto attendchurchesthatare fairlyclose (the
mediandistanceappearsto be betweenone and threemiles[Price,1980;
GeneralAssemblyMissionsCouncil, 1976]). Afterall, attendanceat a
specificchurchis notmandatory, so mostAmericansdo notcommutenear-
ly as farto churchas theydo to theirjobs. The exceptions, of course,are
providedby those churchesthat offersomethingunique-such as large
and beautifulfacilities, an exceptionalpreacher,or specializedministries-
thatare organizedarounda specialpurpose.1For the mostpartchurches
are stilllocallybased organizations, dependent fortheirmembership on the
neighborboods thatsurround them.
The dependencyon surrounding neighborhoods causes churcheslargely
to mirrorthepopulationgrowthpatterns occurring in theseareas. As more
possibleconstituents become available throughthe construction of new
housing,thechurcheswillalmostinevitably grow. The reverseis truewhen
populationdeclineoccurs(Douglass and Brunner,1935; Hadaway,1981),
and in manycases the declinein membership maybeginpriorto an actual
decline in population. Membershipgrowthbringswith it satisfaction,
optimism, and the sort of positivefeelingthatnewcomersfindattractive
(see Van Valey et al., 1979). Yet whenthereare few newcomersavail-
able because the populationhas stabilized,churchgrowthtypicallyslows.
Rarelywill the membership recognizethat the easy growthof previous
years was not due to the pastor and to theirown efforts, so they are
likelyto becomedemoralizedand dissatisfied. The once active,optimistic
church can easily become the introspective, stagnantchurch. Such a
churchis not only unattractive to new residents, manyof the members
may leave to finda more "dynamic" church. Before long,seriousmem-
bership decline maydevelop.
In additionto the problemsbroughton when populationgrowthends,
churchesalso tendto suffer whenthesocial composition of theirneighbor-
hoods beginsto change. Churchesfindit increasingly difficultto replace
memberswho move away, and the "fit"of the congregation to its sur-
roundingneighborhoods becomesless and less close (see Walrath,1979:
260). These tendenciesall relateto the factthatwhena churchinitially
formsit becomesstructured aroundthe class character, values,and actual
residentsof the neighborhoods it serves (Schaller,1975:51-56; 1979:78-
81). Yet the development of thisstructure is not intrinsically
problematic.
In fact,the churchneeds an identity, close-knit friendship groups,and in-
formalrulesof dressand behavior,since theseelementsall contribute to
its stabilityand senseof unity.However,as Schaller(1978:36, 37) notes,
manyof the factorsthatprovideunityand identityfor the churchmay
helpexcludenewcomers.
Whennew residents are not of the same social class or stagein the life
cycle or do not sharethe same values and lifstyles as the memberswho
makeup thecore of thechurch,thesenewcomers mayfeelthatthepresent
structure and orientation of the churchsimplydo not meet theirneeds.
The membership, on the otherhand,who feel verycomfortable withthe
church,are notlikelyto changein orderto accommodate thenew residents,

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374

because theydo not understand why the newcomersshouldfeel uncom-

fortable.And, even if new residents feltthe churchcould possiblyoffer
themsomething, theymay not be acceptedby long-time membersbecause
of prejudicetowardtheirage group,lifestyle, social class or simplybe-
cause the bondswithininformal friendship groupsare so strongthatnew-
comershave greatdifficultybreakingthrough(see Schaller,1979:80-81).
These problemsare magnifiedgreatlywhen the neighborhoods are
changingveryrapidly,such as whenracial transition occurs. If a pattern
of "whiteflight"develops,churchand SundaySchool class rolls tendto
dwindlequickly,but the memberswho remainin nearbyneighborhoods
or who commuteback to thechurchstillclingto theirimageof thechurch
as it once was. Potentialnewcomersare now of anotherrace and the
barriersbetween"we" and "they"(Greeley,1972:229-30) become even
greater.Radical changein the identity of the churchand new avenuesof
entryfornewcomersare essentialif a declineis ever to be halted. Yet
mostchurchesdo not reactin time;theydwindleand die or simplymove
to new neighborhoods whereracialtransition is not yeta problem.
In summary, because the churchis a conservative, neighborhood-based
organizationcomposedof entrenched social groups,it tendsto be not only
affectedbut largelycontrolledby its contextand the changesthat occur
withinit. The degreeof thiscontrolneeds to be betterunderstood, and
we hope to show how the impactvariesin its strength and consequences
withina variety
ofchurchsettings.

A TYPOLOGICAL APPROACH
There are manypossibleapproachesto the problemaddressedin this
paper. Several recentstudies (Hadaway, 1981; McKinney,1979; and
Roof et al., 1979) have used correlation/regressiontechniquesin orderto
estimatethe overallvariancein churchmembership changeexplainedby
differentsets of demographic indicators.While extremely valuable,such
studiesgiveonlytheglobalviewand do notclearlyshowhowtheimpactof
the demographic environment variesamongdifferent areas of the city,nor
do theyshowwhycertainchurchesfail to fitthe predominant pattern.In
orderto gainadditionalinsight intotherelationship betweenchurchgrowth
and thelocal contextit is necessaryto firstpartitionthe cityintoits major
typesof environments. Each area can thenbe considered in depthin terms
of churchmembership trendsand majordemographic characteristics.
Fortunately, Walrath(1977; 1979) has alreadyconstructed an excellent,
easily adapted typologyof the major churchenvironments. The set of
twelvetypeswas developedfrompreviousworkin socialecologyand social
and is verysimilar(thoughsomewhatmore elaboratein its
stratification
totalnumberof types)to earliermodelsof urbandevelopment, such as the
concentriczone model (Park and Burgess,1925; Burgess,1929). Nine
of the twelvetypesreferto metropolitan areas, beginning withthe mid-
townlocation(centralbusinessdistrict)and endingwithfringesettlements
that are "formerrural settlements that have recentlybeen overrunby
metropolitan expansion"(Walrath,1979:255). Beyondthe fringesettle-
mentsis what Walrathcalls the nonmetropolitan region. Here the last

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 375

threetypesare found-independent cities,ruralvillages,and ruralsettle-

ments. A more completediscussionof Walrath'stypescan be foundin
Understanding Church Growth and Decline (Walrath, 1979), Small
ChurchesAre Beautiful(Walrath,1977) and in severalreportspublished
by the Synodof Albany,ReformedChurchin America(Walrath,1969;
1974).
WhileWalrath'stypology was developedand testedamongchurchesin
upstateNew York, it should have much widerutility,at least in those
citieswithdefinable urbancenters.2In thepresentstudywe have employed
the typologyin a much different region,the South,and in a citywhere
churchdeclineis not the rule,as it was in Albany,New York. Our data
are on SouthernBaptistchurcheslocatedin ShelbyCounty,Tennessee.
The methodsemployedin thisstudyare quite simple. Addresseswere
obtainedfor all of the SouthernBaptistchurcheslocatedin Memphisand
in thesurrounding countryside of ShelbyCounty.Each of the 120 church-
es was visitedindividually; photographs weretakenof the churchand the
characteristichousingnearby. In addition, detaileddescriptionsweremade
of thesetting surrounding each churchand thesedescriptions supplemented
by 1970 and 1980 censusdata on the tractswherethe churcheswerelo-
cated.
In orderto construct our measureof membership growth, residentmem-
bershipfigures werecollectedon each churchfrom1970 to 1980. Various
procedureswerepossible,but we decidedto developa three-category ordi-
nal scale to represent membership change. Each churchwas classifiedas
growing,on a plateau,or declining.This made it possibleto represent
clearlyour membership data in a cross-tabular form againstWalrath's
typologyof churchlocationsand also alloweduse of all of the yearsfor
whichdata were collected.Ratherthanmeasuring membership changeas
the difference betweentwo fixedpointsin time,we were able to look for
trends.Thus, if a churchhad declinedseverelybetween1970 and 1972
but had grownsteadilyeach yearsincethattime,we classifiedthe church
as growing, even if its membership in 1980 was less thanits membership
in 1970. Likewise,churchesthat had grownin the firstfew years of
measurement but had leveled offin later years were classifiedas on a
plateau,ratherthan as growingchurches.Also, verynew churchescould
be included,even thoughdata were onlyavailableforthe past fewyears.
Some borderline cases were somewhatdifficult to classifyusingthistech-
nique, but in most cases it was readilyapparenthow to code each church.
We feel the resultingclassification is quite accurateon the whole and
adequatelyrepresents thepresentdirection of the church.Of 118 churches
for whichgood data are available,38 are growing, 40 are on a plateau,
and40 aredeclining.3
We have used Walrath'stypologyto show the percentageof churches
growing,plateaued,or decliningin different urbanenvironments and em-
ployedour detaileddescriptions of the churchesand theirsettings to show
why areas differso greatlyin the likelihoodof havinggrowingchurches.
Also, the information on churchsettings was used to explainpartiallywhy
certainchurchesvarydrastically fromtheoverallpatternin theirparticular
typeofenvironment.

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376

RESULTS
An OverallView
Memphis,Tennessee,like otherlargecitiesin the UnitedStates,has ex-
periencedrapid suburbanexpansionover the past 25 yearsand has had
maintaininga viable centralbusinessdistrict.In fact,
great difficulty
Memphishad more problemsthan most cities in tryingto keep its
downtownalive, and, despiteseveralrevitalizationprojects,4few people
of any race ventureintodowntownat night.Duringthe day the central
businessdistrictis fairlybusy,but whiteshoppersare almostnonexistent.
The few whitesto be seen downtowncan be foundprimarily in govern-
mentbuildingsclusteredat thenorthend of town.
Anotherimportant thatMemphisshareswithothercities,
characteristic
especiallythosein theSouthand East, is itsverylargepopulationof blacks
(around42 percentof thecountypopulation).Typically, fewneighborhoods
are integrated,
so the citycan be accuratelydividedintoblack areas and
whiteareas (see Van Valey et al., 1977:833). The map presentedin
Figure1 indicatesthe majorareas of black concentrationin Memphis.
Because of theoveralldeclinein downtown Memphisand thelargecon-
centrationof blacks around the centralbusinessdistrict,no Southern
Baptistchurchesare to be foundin Walrath'smidtownlocationand only
twoare presentin theinnercity. It is onlyas we moveintotheinner-urban
neighborhoods that we begin to findlarge numbersof SouthernBaptist
churches.As shownin Table 1, 87 percentof thesechurchesare declining
and none are growing, so it is likelythatmanydowntown and inner-city
SouthernBaptistchurcheshave long since eitherrelocatedor actually
died.5
The overalltrendin Table 1 is quite apparent.Growthis extremely
unlikelyin theolderneighborhoods closestto downtownand thenbecomes
progressivelymore likely as we move toward the suburbanfringe. In
fact,wherenewhousingis presently noneof thechurches
beingconstructed,
are decliningand thelargemajorityare growing.Clearly,in Memphisthe
impactof urbanlocationon churchgrowthis massiveand almostdetermi-
nisticwithinthemetropolitanarea.
Fartherout, in thoseregionsbeyondfringevillages,populationgrowth
is more unevenand distanceto downtownbecomesless of a factorin
predictingchurchgrowth.Few areas are reallygood for growthand few
areas are so bad thatdeclineis inevitable.As a result,the churchesin
Walrath'slast fourcategoriesare fairlyevenlydividedbetweenthosethat
aregrowing andthosethatareon a plateau.

CityLocations(Nonsuburban)
The firstfourcategoriesin Table 1 fall withinwhatwe will call city
locations. In Memphisthisis the area withinthe Interstate 240 beltway
thatsurrounds thecity.
As was indicatedearlier,SouthernBaptistchurchesare no longerpresent
withinthe midtownlocation (or the centralbusinessdistrict). In fact,

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 377

Figure 1

LOCATIONSIN SHELBYCOUNTY
TYPES OF URBAN

oo
%..... 110

L%

Locations
City Locations Fringe

1. Midtown 8. Fringe Village Predominantly Black

2. Inner City 9. Fringe Settlement Areas in 1970
4. Urban Neighborhood
Inner Urban
3. iOutnner Neighborhood Areas
4. Outer Urban Neighborhood Rac of Extensive
T i
Racial Transition
Suburban Locations Nonmetropolitan (White to Black)
1970 - 1980
5. City Suburb 10. Independent City
6. Metropolitan Suburb 11. Rural Village
7. Fringe Suburb 12. Rural Settlement

Memphishas veryfew churchesof the "old firstchurch"type (see Jones

and Wilson,1974) leftin downtown.Mostof thelarge,old, statelychurch-
es are located at least a mile east of downtownon major transportation
arteries.In additionto the poor conditionof downtownand the lack of
white neighborhoods closeby,an importantreason for the absence of
SouthernBaptistchurchesin thisarea is therelatively
poor highwaysystem
in Memphis. Unlike many citieswhere downtownchurchescan remain
viable throughinterstate highwaysconverging on the centralbusinessdis-
trict,downtownMemphishas been largelyinaccessiblebecause of a series

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378

Table1
CHURCH BYURBAN
GROWTH LOCATION

(3) (4) (6) (7) (g) (10)

Inner- Outer- (5) (12)
ural
(2) Rura
(1) Inner Urban Urban City Metro- o-
(7) (8) ringe Inde-
Fringe Fringe Settle- pendent Rural Settle
Midtown City Neigh- Neigh- Suburb politan Village Settle-
borhood borhood Suburb Suburb Village ment City ment
(N=2) (N-15) (N-6) (N=5)
(N=O) (N-15) (N=24) (N-=17) (N=19) (N=6) (N=5) (N-4)

. in percent. .

Growing 0.0 50.0 0.0 12.5 11.8 42.1 73.3 83.3 50.0 40.0 40.0 25.0
Plateau 0.0 0.0 13.3 45.8 52.9 21.1 26.7 16.7 16.7 40.0 60.0 75.0

Declining 0.0 50.0 86.7 41.7 35.3 36.8 0.0 0.0 33.3 20.0 0.0 0.0

100.0 1 100
00.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 00000.0 1 00.0 100.0 100.0

= -.52, P<.001
Gamma
If onlyTypes1-8 are included,Gamma-.64, P<.001

of lawsuitsthathaltedinterstate construction.It has been onlyin the past

few yearsthat alternaterouteshave been constructed, but it is stillnot
easy to reachdowntown from manycity and suburban locations.
In theinnercityof Memphisthereare onlytwoSouthern Baptistchurch-
es and bothare reallyon the borderline betweenthe inner-city and inner-
urban neighborhoods. Much of the innercityis dilapidated,large tracts
have been leveledby urbanrenewal,and-as can be seen in Figure 1-
it is almosttotallyblack in population,so we would expectthe Southern
Baptistchurchesin thisarea to be declining.One churchis, but the other,
Bellevue Baptist,is not. The growingcongregation, however,is not a
typicalSouthern Baptistchurch.
BellevueBaptist,althoughlocatedover a milefromdowntown, in some
waysapproximates an "old firstchurch."It is extremely large,witha total
membership of nearly11,000,and is pastoredby AdrianRogers,an un-
usuallygiftedpreacherwho was Presidentof the SouthernBaptistConven-
tionin 1979. In addition,Bellevue'sextensiveeducationaland recreational
facilitiesare far superiorto thoseof all but a few churchesin the entire
city. Bellevueis also locatedamongsmallofficebuildings, businesses,hos-
pitals,and schools ratherthan in the midstof dilapidatedhousing-so
peoplefeel safe attending the church,even at night.Its primaryproblem
is thatfew memberslive anywherenear the building.Bellevuedrawsits
membersfromall over the cityand to do so it mustprovidesomething
unique. That something is primarily the pastor,who led the churchfrom
its previousplateauto rapid growthalmostimmediately upon his arrival.
The otherchurchin the innercitydroppedin membership from1,200
to 600 in ten years. It is locatedin an increasingly dilapidatedneighbor-
hood that is experiencing racial transitionand is nearlysurroundedby
areasthatareover90 percent black.
Beyond the inner citty are the inner-urbanneighborhoods,where 87
percentof the SouthernBaptistchurchesare declining,13 percentare
plateaued,and none are growing.This area contains15 SouthernBaptist
churchesand roughlycorresponds to the "zone of workingmen'shomes"

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 379

in the concentric zone model of urbandevelopment.Nearlyall of these

churchesare locatedon majorthoroughfares in the city;manyare large,
with half havingover 1,000 residentmembers.Being quite visibleand
accessible,such churchestendto draw theirmembersfroma fairlywide
area. The problem,however,is thatthearea is notwide enoughto include
any neighborhoods wherepopulationgrowthis occurring.In fact,many
of the censustractsin inner-urban neighborhoods actuallydeclinedrather
severely in populationbetween1970 and 1980,withtheaverageloss around
18 percent.Also, racial transition has begun arounda numberof these
churches,especially those located near the large bands of black concen-
trationthatborderthe centerof Memphisto thenorthand the south(see
Figure1). For instance,the percentwhitedroppedby 77 percentin one
census tract and 50 percentin anotherbetween1970 and 1980. The
churchesin each tractare declining, severalseverely.
The two "exceptions" to the declinein thisregionare not reallyexcep-
tionssince both are onlynow plateauedafterdecliningin previousyears.
One churchhas about 1,000 membersand is on a back streetin a census
tractthatdeclined17 percentin populationbetween1970 and 1980. Many
of its membersdrivein fromthe suburbsand it is considering relocating.
The otheris a new church(startedin 1968) withonly100 members, most
of whom are older,longtimeresidentsof this community.The church
began when anotherSouthernBaptistchurchin this area moved to the
suburbs(it was in the interstate right-of-way). Ratherthanjoiningother
churches, the remnant of members stillin this area decidedto starta new
church.It remainsstable,but withan agingmembership declinemay not
be faraway.
The regionof outer-urban neighborhoods is the final "city" location.
Here nearly90 percentof the churchesare eitherplateauedor declining,
but membership growthis at least possible,thoughnot likely. Population
declinehas onlyrecently becomea problem,but in severalareas extensive
racialtransitionhas led to theclosingof churches.
The 24 churchesin thislarge area of Memphisare spreadamongthree
relativelydistinctregions.First,thereare nine located rathercloselyto-
gether in the workingclass neighborhoods thatcomprisethenorthern third
of area 4 (see Figure1). Most of thesechurchesare on smallside streets
and all save one are under1,000 in membership. Populationdecline,the
naturaltendency of neighborhoods to becomemoreheterogeneous in popu-
lation as theyage (Schaller,1975:51-56), and a possibleoversupplyof
churchesare the most problematic factorsin this area. However,racial
transition has also slowlybegun to occur in the westernedge of these
neighborhoods; one churchalreadyhas declinedto the point that the
was
building recently sold to a black congregation.
In the southernsectionof area 4, nine otherSouthernBaptistchurches
are locatedin a regionof similarlower-middle and middleclass housing.
Here racial transition has been even more rapid as blacks have moved
steadilyoutwardfromthe innercityalong a band of similarland-use(see
Figure 1). Blockbusting combinedwithalmosthysterical whiteflightled
to neighborhoods becoming90 percentblack in as littleas threeor four
years. As a result,severalverylargechurchessuffered seriousmembership

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380

declinesand finallymoved fartherout, sellingtheirbuildingsto black

congregations.
In themiddlepartof area 4, mostof thechurchesare quitelarge (over
1,000 membership), based churches.All but one are on major
regionally
sectionof Memphis
and noneare growing.This is an affluent
thoroughfares
whereSouthernBaptistchurchesare not the norm,and, althoughthese
theyprobablyare losingout to
have good facilities,
regionalcongregations
largerand newerchurcheslocatednear interstatehighwaysat the edge of
thesuburbs.

SuburbanLocations
Citysuburbsare oldersuburbanareas whererapidgrowthusuallybegan
in the 1940s and continuedat least intothe late 1950s. In Memphisthis
typeof development is locatedprimarilyin threeareas,and each is across
major geographical barriersfromwhatwe have called citylocations.To
the north,and on the otherside of the WolfRiverand Interstate 240, is
the suburbof Frayser.And to the south,also acrossthe 1-240loop, are
twootheroldersuburbs.
In the citysuburbsof Memphischurchesare predominantly on stable
plateausratherthangrowingor declining.This trendlikelyrelatesto the
rapid populationgrowthof these suburbsand its relativelysudden end
whenland fornew housingwas no longeravailable(Zikmund,1975). In
nearlyall citiessuburbandevelopment has tendedto be extremely rapid
(see Fava, 1975:11-13), and in mostcases much more so thanwas the
development of citylocations.New churcheshave been startedalmostas
quicklyas newneighborhoods emergeand mosthave grownveryfast. Yet
when populationgrowthends it does so suddenly;just as suddenlythe
suburbanchurchescease to grow. Few churchesrealize that previous
growthwas due primarily to demographic factors,so theytend to turn
inwardand blame themselves or theirpastors. Ratherthan beginning to
trulyreach out to the unchurched people in theircommunitiesmany of
the suburbanchurchesin Memphisand elsewherefail to regaintheirear-
lier optimismand vitalityand thuslanguishat plateaulevelsbeforeeven-
tuallydeclining.
This scenariofitsFrayserand the easterncity suburbsouth of town.
However,as can be seen in Figure 1, the citysuburbdirectlysouthof
downtownhas experiencedextensiveracial transition.Obviously,racial
transitionis no longera challengefor only "city"churchesin Memphis,
Atlanta,Washington, D.C., and othercitieswitha largeblack component.
Black suburbanization is a major trendof much greatersignificance, at
least today,than is the so-called"back-to-the-city"movementof whites6
(see Spain, Reid and Long, 1980; Birch,1975). In this particularcity
suburb,one largeSouthernBaptistchurchis decliningseverelyand several
otherchurcheshave alreadyrelocatedto newerwhitesuburbs.
Metropolitansuburbsare relativelynew suburbanareas where rapid
growthbeganin the 1950s and continuedintothe 1960s and early1970s.
In Memphis15 of the 19 metropolitan suburbanchurchesare locatedin
the two ratherdenselypopulatedsuburbssouthof town.
Populationgrowthhas onlyrecentlyended in area six, whichis newer

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 381

than the city suburbsand, as can be seen in Figure 1, bordersfringe

suburbswhererapidpopulationgrowthis stilloccurring.Racial transition
has notyetbecomea seriousproblemexceptin Whitehaven, whereseveral
churchesare decliningbadly and a few have alreadymoved. In general,
otherpartsof area six remainfairlyhomogeneousand stablein popula-
tion.
Largelybecause of populationgrowthin the 1970s the churchesin
metropolitan suburbsare muchmorelikelyto have grownthan thosein
citysuburbs,especiallythoselocated closestto areas wherenew housing
is stillbeingconstructed (regionseven). Oddlyenough,however,an equal
percentage in areas fiveand six are declining.Most of thesechurchesare
in Whitehaven, where racial change has been more extensive,but they
also seem to be affectedby anothersuburbanproblem--thetendencyto
overbuildlarge regionally oriented(as opposedto neighborhood-oriented)
churches.Massivepopulationgrowthfueledthebuildingprogramsof these
congregations, and each builtlargefacilitiesin highlyvisiblelocationson
major transportation arteries.For a while membership growthwas as
rapid as populationexpansion,but in the 1970s both finallycame to a
halt.
As is oftenthe case, one churchin Whitehaven has emergedfrom"the
pack" as an institutionally
exceptional church that not only has avoided
declinein thisstagnantsuburbbut has maintained rapidgrowth.Over the
past decade BroadwayBaptisthas increasedfrom2,000 to 3,700 in mem-
bership.Two otherchurchesin themetropolitan suburbshave also doubled
or almostdoubledin membership since 1970,buteach is in a muchbetter
environment than is Broadway. Located on transportation arteriesto
nearbyareas wherepopulationgrowthcontinues, the two churchesshould
be able to sustaintheirrapidrateof growth.
As we move to the fringesuburbs,the churchenvironment changes
completely.Here new housingis currently being built and population
growthis enormous.This categorycomprisestotallynew subdivisions but
excludes small towns that are being surroundedby new housing. In
Memphisthesenew suburbsare beingbuilton all threesides of the city;
in all areas churchgrowthis therule. Seventy-three percentof the church-
es are growing, 27 percentare plateaued,and none are declining.
Six of the elevengrowingchurchesare new,havingbeen formedfrom
thelate 1960s to 1978. Some have alreadybuiltfairlyimpressive buildings
while two othersare housed in very temporary-appearing structures of
corrugatedsteel. In additionto the new churches,two of the rapidly
growingcongregations movedfromlocationsin the cityto the fringesub-
urbsand constructed verylargebuildings.The finalthreeare olderchurch-
es locatedon formerly ruralroads. Each of thesemade the difficult step
of acceptingnewcomersand becomingactivegrowingchurches.
Of the four fringesuburbanchurchesthat are plateaued,two moved
frominner-urban neighborhoods and have not adjustedwell enough to
theirnew settings to grow (see Schaller,1979:80). The othertwo are in
neighborhoods wherepopulationgrowthis onlyrecently past.Theyreached
theirplateaus early,possiblybecause theywere too dependenton new
residents comingto them,ratherthanviceversa.

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382

MetropolitanFringeLocations
The metropolitanfringe,whichdoes not includefringesuburbs,is com-
posed of formerly that have been
rural towns,villages,and settlements
engulfedby the expandingmetropolitan regionover the past ten years.
Here populationgrowthhas been fairlyrapid but,in mostcases, greatly
influencedby the pre-existing of the
structureand social characteristics
town.
The firstof the two typesin thiscategoryare fringevillages,whichare
somewhatlargerthanfringesettlements. Two of thesevillagesexiston the
peripheryof Memphis;both are incorporated.Populationgrowthhas
been fairlyrapid, and suburbandevelopments now surroundthe still
existing"downtowns."Becausepopulationgrowthhas been substantial but
also rathergradualand sustained,the churchesin the fringevillagesare
nearlyall experiencing healthygrowth.Two of the growingchurchesare
verynew and are locatedin new suburbanneighborhoods ratherthanin
the villagecenter.Anotherchurchwas formedin the early 1960s,years
beforethe mostrecentneighborhoods were built,and has grownsteadily
to its currentmembership of around 500. The othertwo growingchurches
and the one thatis on a plateauare veryold churches.The formertwo
have evidentlyadjustedquite well to the influxof newcomers,and the
churchlocated at the villagecenterof Germantown has builtlarge new
forworshipservicesand SundaySchool. The thirdchurch,which
facilities
is locatedin a villagecenter,has not grownin yearsand remainsa stable,
somber-appearing churchthat has failed to capitalizeon the population
growth aroundit.

Fringesettlementsare formerly quite smallvillagesthatare slowlybe-

comingpart of the largermetropolitan area. In Memphis,population
growtharoundthesevillagesis spotty,and,as a result,growingmembership
is theexception.Some churchesin such areashave the optionof accepting
new "suburban"newcomers, but a few othersare so small and ruralthat
theyreallydo not have thisoption. The threegrowingchurchesare all
veryold congregations in the centerof "town." EllendaleBaptist,one of
thesechurches,is a classicexampleof a previously ruralchurchthathas
made the difficult
adjustment to rapidpopulationgrowth.It is construct-
ing a large new sanctuaryand has grownfrom360 membersto 750 in
onlysixyears.
The one churchthatis plateauedis locatedon whatwas once a rural
away fromthe settlement
road. It is a very small, older congregation
centerand appearstoo muchlike an old-fashioned,ruralchurchto attract
themiddleand uppermiddleclass newcomers.The twodecliningchurches
are in even worse situations.Both are verysmall,nondescript,
cheaply
constructed,rural-appearingchurcheslocated on what is now a major
highwaythataccessesrelatively high-pricedhomes and condominium de-
velopments.These churchesseem verymuch out of place; each has de-
clinedabout70 percentin membership duringthe 1970s.

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 383

NonmetropolitanRegion
Like manyothercountiesthatmakeup SMSAs, Shelbycountyis quite
largeand containsnumeroustownsand villagesthatrelateonlyminimally
to the Memphismetropolitan area, are practicallyindependent, and are
surroundedby sparselypopulatedruralenvironments. Churchgrowthis
not at all predictablein such settingsand is largelydetermined by factors
uniqueto theparticular town.
Two fairlylarge independent citiesexist,one at the far northof the
countyand the other at the far east. thenorthern
In Millington, city,little
recentpopulationgrowthhas occurred;as a result,only one of its three
churchesis presently growing.This particular churchis quitelarge (1,000
members),attractive, and locatednear the centerof townin a prominent
and visiblesetting.A secondchurchis fairlynew,is located at the edge
of town,and has reacheda plateau. It is relatively but it is also
attractive,
small and its locationwould be an advantageonly if populationgrowth
was occurring nearby,whichit is not. The thirdchurchis almostout of
townon a majorroadneara verylargeNaval base. This smallruralchurch
has not been keptup well,appearsto be decliningand is, havingdropped
from150 members to 53 in tenyears.
the cityin theeast,has been growingin population.Of the
Collierville,
two churcheshere,one is near the centerof townin whatlooks like an
inner-urban neighborhood. It is on a plateauwitharound1,000 members,
even thoughit probablyis the mostattractive SouthernBaptistchurchin
ShelbyCounty. Possiblyits side streetlocationin the centerof thiscity
does notmakeit visibleand accessibleenoughto new residents.The other
churchin thiscityis a formermissionof the first.It is quitenew,grow-
ing,and is locatedin the midstof thiscity'sgrowingsuburbs.
In rural villageswe begin to findolder small-town churches,ranging
in size from90 to justbelow400 in membership. These smallcommunities
have not benefited frompopulationgrowthoccurringaroundthe metro-
politancenter;in fact,manyhave been decliningin populationforyears.
The churches, however,whichare all locatedin or nearthevillagecenters,
are largelystable in theirmemberships.Declines of earlieryears have
largelybottomedout,and a fewchurcheshave been able to overcometheir
relativelystagnantsettingswitha vital institutional life.
Churchesin ruralsettlements are verysimilarto thosein ruralvillages.
The primarydifference is that churchesin rural settlements are located
along countryroads outsidethe small villagesthat dot the countryside.
One older church,whichhas recentlybuilt a new building,is growing
probablybecause some new residentsare movingin, but also becausethe
pastorand the churchare makinga deliberateeffort to reach theircom-
munity.The otherthreechurcheshave longbeen on stableplateaus.

CONCLUSIONS
Churchgrowthand declineare of greatconcernto churchand denomi-
nationalleaderstoday. This concerndoes not typically
stemfroma worry
that the growthof some "superchurch," such as Bellevue Baptist in
Memphis,is unauthentic, but ratherthatmany,and in some cases most,

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384

of a denomination'surban churchesare decliningseriously. There is clearly

a need for greaterunderstandingof why some churches decline and others
grow, and there are many approaches to the problem. In this study we
have tried to,show how it is possible to look at an urban area in terms of
its constituentenvironments,and how each type of settinghas a different
impact on the numerical growthand decline of churches.
Using Memphis as an example, we showed that church growthis quite
unlikely in the downtown,inner city, and even in older establishedneigh-
borho~ods.However, as we move outwardfrom the city to the suburbs and
to areas where new housing is currentlybeing constructed,membership
growthbecomes progressivelymore likely. These findingsunderscore the
tremendousimpact of urban location on the church,an impact that cannot
be ignored if church planningis to,be realistic. As was seen in Memphis
even in the case of a growingdenomination,there were areas where none
of the churches were growing and there were also areas where none of
the churches were declining. Clearly, a church on a plateau in an inner-
urban neighborhoodmust be treateddifferently than a church on a plateau
in a fringevillage. Both are atypical,of course, but one is unusual because
it is not growingand the other because it is not declining.
The question that must arise in responseto this researchis simply,"What
can church leaders do once they accept the influence of environmental
pressures on the church?" Obviously, one response is to educate pastors
about the currentpressuresin their settingsand what they may expect in
the future. This would possiblyalleviate some of the self-blamethat pastors
of declining churches often feel, but there is also the hidden danger of a
prophecy. It would be very possible for a healthychurch to
self-fulfilling
"give up" in the face of a potentiallyhostile environmentbecause its
leaders believed decline was inevitable. Another response concerns the
justificationfor preserving declining city churches, such as "Old First
Church," with heavy infusionsof denominationalfunds. This is primarily
a question of denominationalprioritiesand really cannot be answered by
this research. However, from a practical standpoint,there would seem to
be littlevalue in maintainingan "outpost in the ghetto"unless the primary
purpose of the effortwas to make the church an indigenous part of the
local community. This is really the only strategythat holds a possibility
for long-termsuccess. Otherwise,churches either will continue to, decline
or must relocate to "better" areas of town. This latter response always
seems somewhat cowardly but is very frequentlytaken and often results
in a rebirthof sorts for the church. The problem, of course, is to find a
new location that is not already "overchurched,"that is growingin popu-
lation, and that is convenientto a large enough proportionof the current
membership. Many churches relocate only a few miles in order to remain
near most of their members,but, given the speed of racial transitionin
many cities,they often move again withina very short time.
It is obviously disturbingfor leaders to see the church so directlyin-
fluenced, if not controlled, by environmentalpressures. After all, these
are "churches of Jesus Christ," not service stations. It should be realized
that these findingsdo not reflecton the viabilityof the faith nor even on

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 385

the particulardenomination;rather,they reflecta possible weakness in the

organizationalstructureof the local church as it has evolved in this reli-
giously pluralistic (and competitive) society. Our churches are neighbor-
hood-based voluntaryorganizationsand are organized as if their surround-
ing environmentswere stable in population. In the city they are not stable,
and churches located in areas of transitionsufferaccordingly. This trend
will continue until the basic organizationalstructureof the church changes,
the cities become stable, or the United States adopts a state religion. At
this point none of these prospectsseem very likely.

NOTES
1. Anothertype of churchthat draws its membersfrom long distancesis
what Schaller (1975) calls the ex-neighborhood church. Former residentsof
surrounding neighborhoods have moved to suburbanareas far fromthe church
but still commuteback for church services. As Wagner (1979a:284) notes,
"It becomes an island of one kind of people in the midstof a community of
anotherkind of people." This church,however,does not escape the influence
of community transitionforlong,and usuallywithinfiveyears (Wagner,1979b:
30) it dies or relocates.
2. Walrath'stypologyand the models on which it is based would seem to
have less utilityin urban centersthatare essentiallyinterlocking multiplenuclei
(Harris and Ullman, 1945). The Los Angeles Metropolitanarea is probably
thebestexampleof suchan urbancenter.
3. Two churchesmoved fromcityto suburbanlocationsseveralyears before
the end of our measurement period. In both cases it was not possibleto estab-
lish a trendat theirnew locationnor did it seem legitimateto treatthem as
havingremainedat theirold location. For thisreason theywere droppedfrom
the analysis.
4. Like otherlargecities,Memphishas placed conventionfacilitiesnear down-
town and has made an uncovered"mall" of main street. The success of such
attemptsin trulyrevitalizing downtownhas been minimalthus far.
5. Walrath(1979:260) notesthatthe lack of "mainline,predominantly white,
Protestant" congregations in the innercityis typicaland thatmostdied, merged,
or relocatedbeforeWorldWar II.
6. Since 1970 therehas been an increasein black-to-white housingtransition
in centralcities,reflecting a "back-to-the-city"movementto some degree.How-
ever, whiteto black transitionis still more commonand the percentblack in
centralcitiesincreasedfrom20.5 percentin 1970 to 22.4 percentin 1977 (U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 1978). In traditionally white suburbs,on the other
hand,as Spain et al. (1980) note,the numberof blacks replacingwhitesis also
higherand the percentblack in the suburbshas increasedfrom4.6 percentin
1970 to 5.6 percentin 1977.

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