CRIMES DATASET ANALYSIS

The crimes dataset had following columns:

Column Description
1 ID ID of crime
Date of crime
2 Date occurrence
3 Primary.Type Type of crime
Location.Descrip Location of
4 tion crime
Has an arrest be
5 Arrest recorded
I further created following variables:
Year of arrest ; Only date of arrest; Month of arrest; Day of arrest; Hour of crime
Our aim is to find whether crimes increase on Friday when date is 13 th. So ignoring
the fact that a large portion of crimes comes from some 11 out of 35 types of
crimes present, we would assume all types of crimes as equally bad and it dont
matter to us that some type of crime increases and some type not on Friday the
13th.

Location can also be eliminated from our analysis because what matters to us is
whether crime increases on Friday the 13th or not. (No matter where it takes place.)

We are left with year, date, month, day and hour of arrest.

Total Number of crimes recorded: 6155248

Total number of days : 5726 days

Average number of crimes taking place in a day : 1075 crimes per day

Lets plot number of crimes on each day.

Clearly the maximum number of crimes occurs on Friday : 927269

Number of Friday occurred : 818

That means on average, 1133 crimes take place in a day if the day is Friday. Greater
than daily average of 1075 crimes

Lets plot number of crimes on each date:

200632 crimes taken place on 13th of a month. And there are total 188 times 13th
has occurred, establishing the fact that, on average 1067 crimes take place if the
date is 13th.
Lets now look at these plots :
These plots throw light on variation of number of crimes with both day and date of
crime.

It had happened 28 times when Friday and 13 th of a month has occurred both on
same day and 31586 crimes have been recorded, that means, on average 1128
crimes occur on 13th the Friday. Greater than the average daily of 1075 crimes.

Hence from the data, it can be concluded :

There are more crimes on Friday than any other day.

But on 13th of a month, there are less crimes than daily average.

BUT on 13th the Friday, there are on average 53 more crimes than any normal day.

ESTABLISHING THE FACT THAT there are more chances of happening crime if the
day is Friday the 13th.

ACCIDENTS DATASET ANALYSIS

The accidents dataset had following columns:

Column Description
Police deparment where
Police_Force accident occarded
Number_of_Vehicle
s No of Vehicles involved
Number_of_Casualt No of Casualities
ies involved
Date Day of occarance
Day_of_Week Day in the week
Time Time of occarance
Road_Type Road Type
Speed_limit Speed Limit
Light conditions
Light_Conditions recorded
Weather_Condition Weather conditions
s recorded
Road_Surface_Con
ditions Road Surface conditions
Urban_or_Rural_Are
a Urbal or rural
I further created following variables:
Year ; Only date ; Month ; Day ; Hour of accident.
Proceeding the way similar to previous one :

Total Number of accidents recorded: 2746531

Total number of days: 5485 days

Average number of accidents taking place in a day: 501 per day

Clearly the maximum number of accidents occurs on Friday : 453778

Number of Friday occurred : 782

That means on average, 580 accidents take place in a day if the day is Friday.
Greater than daily average of 1075 accidents.

Lets plot number of accidents on each date:

91266 accidents taken place on 13th of a month. And there are total 181 times 13th
has occurred, establishing the fact that, on average 504 accidents taken place if the
date is 13th.

Lets now look at these plots :

These plots throw light on variation of number of crimes with both day and date of
crime.

It had happened 25 times when Friday and 13 th of a month has occurred both on
same day and 14310 accidents have been recorded, that means, on average 572
accidents occur on 13th the Friday. Greater than the average daily of 501 accidents.

Hence from the data, it can be concluded :

There are more accidents on Friday than any other day.

But on 13th of a month, there is almost same number of accidents as that of daily
average.

BUT on 13th the Friday, there are on average 71 more accidents than any normal
day.

ESTABLISHING THE FACT THAT there are more chances of accident if the day is
Friday the 13th.
STOCKS DATASET ANALYSIS
The variables present are :

Column Description
1 Date Day
2 Open Opening quote
3 High Highest quote of the day
4 Low Lowest quote of the day
5 Close Closing quote
6 Volume Volume of Stocks traded
Adjusted for stock splits dividents . Not relevant
7 Adj Close for index scores

Volume has most of values 0 in sensex dataset. So it would be safe to remove it

from analysis. Moreover I created following variables : "Year" "Month"
"Dateonly" "Dayofweek"

Returns defined as: ( todays close yesterdays close )/(yesterdays close)

Behavior defined as: (todays Close-todays Open)

Direction defined as: 1 if behavior is positive 0 if behavior is negative

Moving average defined as: mean of last three days close price (To smooth the
price curve and to avoid some sudden fluctuations)

Difference defined as: (Close-Moving average)/(moving average)

SENSEX DATSET :
Average daily returns 0.0005192405

Average daily returns when date is 13: 0.000604735

Average daily returns when day is Friday: 0.0005449374

Average daily returns when day is Friday date is 13: 0.002397001

Average daily difference: 0.0004127634

Average daily difference when date is 13: -0.000283953

Average daily difference when day is Friday: 0.0003481663

Average daily difference when day is Friday and date is 13: 0.001860172

When date is 13, avg returns is more than daily returns but when day is Friday avg
return is less than (almost equal)daily returns, when day is Friday and date is 13 :
avg return is more than daily returns.

When date is 13, avg difference is less than daily difference but when day is Friday
avg difference is less than daily difference, when day is Friday and date is 13 : avg
difference is far more than daily difference.

SNP 500 DATSET :

Average daily returns: 4.147793e-06

Average daily returns when date is 13: 0.001725106

Average daily returns when day is Friday: -0.0004081913

Average daily returns when day is Friday date is 13: 0.0006015464

Average daily difference : 9.434344e-05

Average daily difference when date is 13: 0.000987808

Average daily difference when day is Friday: -8.0066e-05

Average daily difference when day is Friday and date is 13: 0.0005573601

When date is 13, avg returns is more than daily returns but when day is Friday avg
return is less than daily returns, when day is Friday and date is 13 : avg return is
more than daily returns.

When date is 13, avg difference is more than daily difference but when day is Friday
avg difference is less than daily difference, when day is Friday and date is 13 : avg
difference is more than daily difference.

Surprisingly, the above analysis of both datasets tells daily returns on Friday the 13 th
increases than avg daily returns.

This is just opposite of our assumption that returns may decreases on Friday the
13th.