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Sector Textil y Confecciones: Principales Mercados

Mercado Setiembre 2012


Estados Unidos 54
Venezuela 53
Brasil 12
Colombia 8
Ecuador 11
Otros 45
Total 183
FUENTE: SUNAT. Elaboracin:PROMPERU

PRINCIPALES DESTINOS DE EXPORT

25% 30%

6%
4%
7%
29%

IMPORTACIONES EE.UU EN MILLONES DE DOLARES

PAISES 2010
MEXICO 1758.9
HONDURAS 1473.3
EL SALVADOR 960.3
GUATEMALA 857.1
HONG KONG 828.8
CHINA 721.3
PERU 672.7
OTROS 10204.3
TOTAL 17476.7
FUENTE: COMTRADE
ELABORACION: PROPIA
10204.3

FIBRAS NATURALES

PAIS PARTICIPACION(%)
ESTADOS UNIDOS 44%
VENEZUELA 27%
BRASIL 5% % EXPORTACION DE PREND
ARGENTINA 3%
COLOMBIA 2%
ALEMANIA 2%
CHILE 2%
ITALIA 2%
MEXICO 2%
REINO UNIDO 1%
3
OTROS 10%
TOTAL 100% 5

TIPOS DE CONSUMIDORES

TIPO A

TIPO B

TIPO C
SEGMENTO
ALTO
MEDIO-ALTO
MEDIO
MEDO-BAJO
BAJO

3166.6666666667
til y Confecciones: Principales Mercados
(millones de dlares)
Var.%Setiembre 12/11
7.5
31.5
13.3
-25.0
87
-10.7
8.5
ROMPERU

PRINCIPALES DESTINOS DE EXPORTACION DE PRENDAS DE V

25% 30% Estados

6%
4%
7% Colomb
29%

ES DE DOLARES

%
10.1%
Grfico: Pricipales Proveedores de EE.UU
8.4%
5.5%
4.9%
MEXICO HONDURAS 4.7%
EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONG KONG CHINA PERU OTR
4.1%
3.8%
58.4%
10% 8%
100.0%
5%
5%
58%
5%

4% 4%
5%
5%
58%
5%

4% 4%

44
27
% EXPORTACION DE PRENDAS DE VESTIR ELABORAD 5
3
2% 2
2% 2
10% 2
2% 1%
2
2% 44% 2
2%
1
3%
10
5% 27%
100

CLASES DE CONCEPTOS
Calidad: 100% alpaca
Diseo: vanguardista
Precio: US$ 80 aprox.
Calidad: 80% alpaca y 20% oveja
Diseo: clsico
Precio: US$ 65 aprox.
Calidad: 65% alpaca y 35% oveja
Diseo: simple
Precio: US$ 40 aprox.
CARACTERSTICA
Poblacin con el ms alto nivel de vida e ingesos del pas.
Poblacin con nivel de vida e ingresos ligeramente altos.
Poblacin con ingresos que les permiten vivir con algunas comodidades.
Poblacin con ingresos que les permiten suplir necesidaes fundamentales.
Poblacin cuyos ingresos no alcanzan a suplir sus necesidades bsicas.
Ene-Set 2012 Porcentaje
480 30%
500 29%
76 7%
70 4%
69 6%
396 25%
1591 100%

RENDAS DE VESTIR

Estados Unidos Venezuela Brasil

Colombia Ecuador Otros

s de EE.UU

NG CHINA PERU OTROS


R ELABORADAS CON FIBRAS NATURALES
ESTADOS UNIDOS
VENEZUELA
BRASIL
ARGENTINA
COLOMBIA
44% ALEMANIA
CHILE
ITALIA
MEXICO
REINO UNIDO
OTROS
% TOTAL
13
17
25
20
25
100
VENEZUELA IMPORTACIONES EN MILLONES DE DOLARES

PAISES 2010 % 2011 %


ESTADOS UNIDOS 10846 25.9% 11847 26.3%
COLOMBIA 5661 13.5% 6765 15.0%
CHINA 4018 9.6% 4221 9.4%
BRASIL 3928 9.4% 4072 9.0%
MEXICO 2129 5.1% 2097 4.6%
ALEMANIA 1038 2.5% 1360 3.0%
CHILE 817 1.9% 1154 2.6%
ITALIA 979 2.3% 1114 2.5%
ARGENTINA 1101 2.6% 1084 2.4%
PANAMA 1025 2.4% 980 2.2%
PERU 700 1.7% 916 2.0%
ESPAA 860 2.1% 895 2.0%
OTROS 8809 21.0% 8625 19.1%
TOTAL 41911 100% 45130 100%
FUENTE: EMBAJADA DE PERU EN VENEZUELA
ELABORACION: PROPIA
2010
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
VARIACION(%)
9.2%
19.5%
5.1%
3.7%
-1.5%
31.0%
41.2%
13.8%
-1.5%
-4.4%
30.9%
4.1%
-2.1%
7.7%

2011

Chart Title
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
CUADRO: IMPORTACIONES BTRASIL
(dlares)
PAISES 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CHINA 75400366 109059593 147333153 219790470 415953975
BANGLADESH 9776697 25573365 33568338 48989066 76330482
PERU 1125392 9185581 15480817 36343854 71712994
INDIA 3490448 8821555 8588272 27064815 28143465
ARGENTINA 9398184 13285876 14509869 16458521 22523354
INDONESIA 6187613 8446586 11625033 14009404 22059959
HONG KONG 9074386 8471917 7934938 11715527 23309066
TAILANDIA 2873279 5090477 9344324 8764984 13039466
VIETNAM 1491282 4444755 4800664 7064005 13241329
CAMBOYA 2742190 4304813 7386658 6274496 13818783
OTROS 46069985 51129015 43836501 61586264 95018659
TOTAL 167629822 247813533 304408567 458061406 795151532

450000000

400000000

350000000

300000000

250000000

200000000

150000000

100000000

50000000

0
BANGLADESH
2012
329558063
68551308
34234191
16071857
11933440
18048835
11895615
6273558
13001132
6953213
57225951
573747163
PRODUCTO BRUTO INTERNO POR SECTORES PRODUCTIVOS
(Variaciones porcentuales)
SECTORES 2001 2002
Agropecuario 0.6 6.1
- Agrcola -2.1 6.5
- Pecuario 0.8 3.8
Pesca -11.1 6.1
Minera e hidrocarburos 9.9 12.0
- Minera metlica 10.9 13.0
- Hidrocarburos -2.0 0.7
Manufactura 0.7 5.7
- De procesamiento de recursos primarios -1.7 4.8
- No primaria 1.4 5.9
Electricidad y agua 1.6 5.5
Construccin -6.5 7.7
Comercio 0.9 3.3
Otros servicios -0.5 4.0
PRODUCTO BRUTO INTERNO 0.2 5.0
Fuente: INEI y BCRP.
Elaboracin: Gerencia Central de Estudios Econmicos.

LINEA DE PRODUCTOS % VENTAS VENTA


Alimentos, frutas y verduras 31.1 31.1
Prod. Textiles y calzado 22.3 22.3
Aparatos, art. Y equipos de uso domstico 17.1 17.1
Art. Farmacuticos y cosmticos 7.1 7.1 6
Bebidas y Tabaco 6.2 6.2 7%
MueblEs 3.5 3.5
Otros 12.7 12.7
TOTAL 100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3.0 -1.4 5.4 8.4 3.2 7.2 2.3 4.3
1.4 -1.8 4.2 8.4 2.0 7.4 0.9 4.2
3.0 3.0 6.9 8.2 5.3 6.0 4.4 4.4 Gr
-10.3 30.7 3.2 2.4 6.9 6.3 -7.9 -16.4
5.5 5.3 8.4 1.4 2.7 7.6 0.6 -0.1 12.0
6.3 5.1 7.3 1.1 1.7 7.3 -1.4 -4.9
-4.3 7.1 23.4 5.7 6.5 10.3 16.1 29.5 10.0
3.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 11.1 9.1 -7.2 13.6
3.2 8.0 3.9 4.1 -2.7 7.6 0.0 -2.3 8.0
3.7 7.2 8.5 8.5 14.0 8.9 -8.5 16.9
3.7 4.5 5.6 6.9 8.4 7.8 1.2 7.7 6.0 5.0
4.5 4.7 8.4 14.8 16.6 16.5 6.1 17.4
4.0
2.4 6.2 6.2 11.7 9.7 13.0 -0.4 9.7
4.8 4.8 6.8 6.8 9.0 9.1 3.1 8.0
2.0
4.0 5.0 6.8 7.7 8.9 9.8 0.9 8.8 0.2
0.0
2001 2002

VENTAS POR LINEAS DE PRODUCTOS (2011)


Alimentos, frutas y verduras
13%
4% Prod. Textiles y calzado
31%
6%
Aparatos, art. Y equipos de uso
7% domstico

17% Art. Farmacuticos y cosmtico


22%
Bebidas y Tabaco

MueblEs

Otros
Grfico 1.1: Producto Bruto Interno 2001-2010 (Variacin Porcentu
12.0

9.8
10.0
8.9 8.8
7.7
8.0
6.8

6.0 5.0 5.0


4.0
4.0

2.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(2011)
entos, frutas y verduras

Textiles y calzado

atos, art. Y equipos de uso


stico

armacuticos y cosmticos

das y Tabaco

blEs
0 (Variacin Porcentual)

8
8.8

0.9

08 2009 2010
AO TASA DE INFLACION (%)
2001 1.5 Grfico 1.1: Evo
2002 0.2
7
2003 2.3
6
2004 3.8
2005 1.6 5
3.8
2006 2.1 4
2007 1.8 3 2.3
2008 5.8 2 1.5
2009 2.9 1 0.2
2010 1.5 0
2011 4.6 2001 2002 2003 2004

EN MILES DE US $

PAIS 2001 2002


ESTADOS UNIDOS 380,919.77 403,681.57
VENEZUELA 36,095.45 35,651.30
CHILE 28,627.28 25,760.57
ECUADOR 22,845.71 20,957.40
ESPAA 26,454.27 19,646.60
ITALIA 18,059.87 17,458.24
REINO UNIDO 13,986.67 17,292.83
JAPON 12,363.90 14,295.06
BOLIVIA 17,507.82 13,630.92
COLOMBIA 14,927.72 13,454.86
ALEMANIA 12,038.81 13,324.69
MEXICO 9,752.82 11,704.78
OTROS 46,197.24 52,559.89
TOTAL 639,777.33 659,418.71
Grfico 1.1: Evolucin de la Tasa de Inflacin 2001-2010 (variacin % anual)

5.8
4.6
3.8
2.9
2.3 2.1
1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5

0.2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


406,015.44
27,805.11
9,928.19
4,809.41
12,122.88
16,230.15
7,153.14
9,574.92
13,805.44
11,507.67
7,654.92
9,173.08
51,891.23
587,671.58
riacin % anual)

2009 2010
MOPNEDA NACIONAL
AOS
ACTIVA (TAMN) PASIVA (TIPMN)
2001 23.0 5.1
2002 20.7 3.6
2003 22.3 2.5
2004 25.4 2.5
2005 23.6 2.6
2006 23.1 3.2
2007 22.3 3.3
2008 23.0 3.8
2009 19.7 1.6
2010 18.7 1.8
2011 18.7 2.5
Fuente: Superintendencia de Banca, Seguros y AFP y BCRP.
Elaboracin: Gerencia Central de Estudios Econmicos.

REMUNERACION MINIMA VITAL http://data.ccpaqp.org.pe/info_al_di

DISPOSITIVO VIGENCIA
D.U. N 12-2000 Del 10.03.2000 al 14.09.2003
D.U. N 22-2003 Del 15.09.2003 al 31.12.2005
D.S N 016-2005-TR Del 01.01.2006 al 30.09.2007
D.S N 022-2007-TR Del 01.10.2007 al 31.12.2007
D.S N 022-2007-TR Del 01.01.2008 al 30.11.2010
D.S N 011-2010-TR Del 01.12.2010 al 31.01.2011
D.S N 011-2010-TR Del 01.02.2011 al 14.08.2011
D.S N 011-2011-TR Del 15.08.2011 al 31.05.2012
D.S. N 007-2012-TR Del 01.06.2012 en adelante
MONEDA EXTRANJERA
ACTIVA (TAMEX) PASIVA (TIPMEX)
10.2 2.2
10.2 1.3
9.3 1.0
9.3 1.2
10.2 1.8
10.7 2.1
10.3 2.4
10.7 2.0
8.7 1
8.6 0.8
8.6 0.7

paqp.org.pe/info_al_dia/indicadores_vncmtos/il_evoluc_rmv.html

EMPLEADOS (mensual)
S/. 410.00
S/. 460.00
S/. 500.00
S/. 530.00
S/. 550.00
S/. 580.00
S/.600.00
S/.675.00
S/.750.00
BANCARIO INFORMAL
AOS
COMPRA VENTA COMPRA
2001 3.51 3.51 3.50
2002 3.52 3.52 3.51
2003 3.48 3.48 3.47
2004 3.41 3.41 3.41
2005 3.30 3.30 3.29
2006 3.27 3.28 3.27
2007 3.13 3.13 3.12
2008 2.93 2.92 2.92
2009 3.01 3.01 3.01
2010 2.83 2.83 2.82
2011 2.75 2.76 2.75

POBLACION -2.2003544321

AO POBLACION
2001 27,483,860
2002 27,949,640 Grfico 1.1: POBLAC
2003 28,409,900 31,000,000
2004 27,544,300
30,000,000
2005 27,925,630
2006 28,302,600 29,000,000
2007 28,674,760 28,000,000
2008 29,180,900 27,000,000
2009 29,546,960
26,000,000
2010 29,907,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200
2011 29,248,940
POBLA

TASA DE CRECIMIENTO

AO TASA (%)
2001 1.7 Grfico 1.1: TASA DE CREC
2002 1.7
1.8
2003 1.6
1.6
2004 1.4 1.7 1.7
1.4 1.6
2005 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4
2006 1.3 1.0
2007 1.3 0.8
2008 1.3 0.6
2009 1.2 0.4
2010 1.2 0.2
2011 1.0 0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
TASA DE C
0.4
0.2
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
TASA DE C

SEGN SEXO

AO TOTAL HOMBRES MUJERES


2001 27,484 13,331 14,153
2002 27,950 13,461 14,489
2003 28,410 14,713 13,697
2004 27,544 13,655 13889
2005 27,926 14,317 13,609
2006 28,303 14,593 13,710
2007 28,675 14,480 14,195
2008 29,181 14,780 14,401
2009 29,547 14,915 14,632
2010 29,907 15,091 14,816
2011 29,249 14,270 14,979

http://www1.ine
i.gob.pe/biblioin
eipub/bancopub
/Est/Lib0005/CA
P-51.htm

POBLACION X DEPART
DEPARTAMENTOS 2001
COSTA
773701 Callao 849575
649332 Ica 725206
1465970 La Libertad 1541694
1093051 Lambayeque 1168925
7475495 Lima 7551319
147374 Moquegua 223278
1545771 Piura 1621695
277188 Tacna 353112
193840 Tumbes 269764
SIERRA
1067282 Ancash 1143206
425367 Apurmac 501291
1072958 Arequipa 1148880
521155 Ayacucho 597079
1411942 Cajamarca 1487833
1158142 Cusco 1234066
429645 Huancavelica 505519
776727 Hunuco 852651
1190488 Junn 1266402
247872 Pasco 323796
1199398 Puno 1275322
SELVA
406060 Amazonas 481934
880471 Loreto 956345
84383 Madre Dios 85092
743668 San Martin 819592
424410 Ucayali 500284
27,483,860 29,248,940 TOTAL 27483860
INFORMAL
VENTA http://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/index.asp?sFrecuencia=M
3.51
3.52
3.48
3.41
3.29
3.28
3.13
2.93
3.01
2.83
2.76

Grfico 1.1: POBLACION TOTAL 2001-2011

01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
POBLACION TOTAL

1.1: TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL 2001-2011

1.6
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
1.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL

2006 2011 %
54.59%
868819 960996 3.29%
719000 744422 2.55%
1621126 1703426 5.82%
1209399 1302641 4.45%
8257406 8771928 29.99%
163381 170962 0.58%
1690442 1708510 5.84% 60.00%
322308 357086 1.22%
50.00%
239053 246211 0.84%
34.58% 40.00%
1197892 1162397 3.97%
452577 469464 1.61% 30.00%
1197059 1257045 4.30%
20.00%

10.00%
40.00%

30.00%

20.00%
535715 537256 1.84%
1527046 1378145 4.71% 10.00%
1227068 1194445 4.08%
462573 472177 1.61% 0.00%
COSTA SIERRA
863981 925654 3.16%
1260947 1126316 3.85% % POBLACION TOTAL
263823 261429 0.89%
1290819 1328986 4.54%
10.84%
453522 480936 1.64%
993607 1067581 3.65%
100417 108618 0.37%
880092 1007850 3.45%
499775 504459 1.72%
28,302,600 29248940 100.00%

0
recuencia=M
SIERRA SELVA

% POBLACION TOTAL
AO DEVALUACION Grfico 1.1: Devaluacin de la m
2001 -2.3 (variaci
2002 2.3 600%
2003 -1.5
2004 -5.2 400%
2005 4.5 2.3
200%
2006 -6.8
2007 -6.3
0%
2008 4.8
2009 -8 -1.
-200% -2.3
2010 -2.8 %
2011 3.8 -400%

-600%

-800%

-1000%
2001 2002 2003

BALANZA COMERCIAL EN MILES DE MILLONES DE US


AOS EXPORTACIONES IMPORTACIONES
2001 7.0 7.2
2002 7.7 7.4
2003 9.0 8.3
2004 12.8 9.8
2005 17.4 12.1
2006 23.8 14.9
2007 27.9 19.6
2008 31.5 28.4
2009 26.9 21.0
2010 33.6 26.4
2011 35.4 28.3

40.0
Grfico 1.1: Balanza Comercial en Miles de Millones de US$
35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-5.0

Exportaciones Importaciones Bal

RIESGO PAIS
PAISES RIESGO
ARGENTINA 365
VENEZUELA 277
BRASIL 165
URUGUAY 102
COLOMBIA 102
PERU 96
MEXICO 94

Indicador de Bonos de Mercados Emergentes


Grfico 1.1: Devaluacin de la moneda peruana respecto al US$
(variacin % anual)
600%

4.5 4.8
400%

200% 2.3

0%

-1.5
-200% -2.3
%
-400%
-5.2
-600% -6.3
-6.8
-800%

-1000%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20

MILES DE MILLONES DE US$ http://elcolumnista.perublog.net/2010/04/19/p

BALANZA COMERCIAL
-0.2
0.3
0.7
3.0
5.3
8.9
8.3
3.1
5.9
7.2
7.1

a Comercial en Miles de Millones de US$


3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Exportaciones Importaciones Balanza Comercial

Grfico 1.1: Riesgo Pas para Latinoamerica Ao 201


400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
ARGENTINA VENEZUELA BRASIL URUGUAY COLOMBIA PERU MEXICO
4.8
3.8

-2.8

-6.3

-8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

ta.perublog.net/2010/04/19/por-qu-invertir-en-el-per-por-su-ubicaci-n-ge-gr-fica/
2011

oamerica Ao 2011

MBIA PERU MEXICO


CODIGO HTS 61101020
Chompas, pullovers y articulos similares tejidos o a crochet de lana o pelo fino de animal excluyendo

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
Hong Kong 237,787 306,894 312,392 261,610 284,551
Italy 85,868 91,121 101,794 110,531 122,822
Thailand 8,198 36,316 78,040 68,268 105,539
China 45,543 66,697 53,969 33,110 35,601
Australia 7,372 14,818 14,203 27,855 29,290
United Kingdom 22,148 35,285 29,578 21,752 10,679
Philippines 4,952 9,906 6,834 15,832 13,867
Cambodia 0 887 7,998 5,323 8,755
Mexico 52 277 819 1,065 1,775
Sri Lanka 4,345 2,965 6,029 2,278 7,771
Macao 9,493 11,439 11,599 9,130 12,049
India 7,651 17,304 33,011 12,930 10,596
Madagascar 1,387 843 2,377 3,881 4,246
Indonesia 4,168 4,540 3,405 5,306 3,583
Taiwan 1,650 4,728 5,854 4,125 7,721
Japan 348 381 1,835 2,167 2,801
Korea 2,615 3,480 5,676 6,495 8,060
Ireland 3,325 7,006 5,583 4,636 5,113
Malaysia 3,975 5,664 4,977 4,046 5,196
Peru 4,123 4,500 5,000 5,302 3,951
Bangladesh 478 1,115 12,049 5,348 11,058
Mauritius 4,285 7,189 12,130 5,503 3,493
Uruguay 4,628 4,834 5,256 4,328 5,394

Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos

A PARTIR DEL 20
CODIGO HTS 61101100
Chompas, pullovers y articulos similares tejidos o a crochet de lana o pelo fino de animal excluyendo

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
China 34,324 26,837 21,473 272,651 334,214
Italy 105,858 84,574 72,934 57,071 60,722
Hong Kong 257,808 210,640 220,213 46,893 29,130
Mexico 9,383 10,618 12,129 7,729 8,951
Ireland 7,593 6,073 4,842 5,697 5,992
Peru 3,140 2,940 2,670 3,716 4,049
United Kingdom 11,904 15,535 14,295 4,302 3,680
Madagascar 463 2,567 3,195 731 2,717
Bangladesh 6,122 10,470 300 1,857 2,472
France 2,854 2,589 2,657 2,663 2,288
Norway 3,670 3,037 2,796 1,994 2,119
Turkey 3,362 794 904 1,184 1,790
Romania 232 729 3,038 1,631 1,789
Jordan 362 192 100 1,256 1,757
Thailand 46,609 50,725 42,598 4,343 1,621
Uruguay 2,650 2,286 2,759 2,020 1,562
Portugal 406 349 658 898 1,436
Switzerland 110 135 697 1,137 1,308
Bolivia 1,211 1,105 857 1,309 1,149
Japan 3,887 6,278 16,074 843 1,053
Macao 6,467 6,984 6,346 2,707 1,026
Indonesia 4,296 5,959 5,960 1,627 808
Taiwan 4,598 3,379 6,600 421 774
Canada 2,146 4,102 745 589 681
India 6,007 2,989 3,338 635 671
525,462 461,886 448,178 425,904 473,759
Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos

CODIGO HTS 61101900


Chompas, pullovers y articulos similares tejidos o a crochet de lana o pelo fino de animal excluyendo

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
China 820 894 2,283 22,643 30,888
Italy 11,657 2,581 6,136 4,917 4,934
Peru 964 1,460 2,602 3,821 2,966
Hong Kong 8,575 6,871 19,903 5,182 1,124
United Kingdom 1,555 143 467 390 456
Korea 105 490 802 430 442
Macao 547 140 360 132 428
Bolivia 161 166 110 178 269
France 175 44 265 147 236
Uruguay 1,475 630 706 305 203
Spain 7 11 6 107 152
Belgium 32 30 80 65 148
Ireland 15 17 342 490 116
India 150 126 144 251 113
Nepal 1 13 33 34 100
Ecuador 60 18 63 62 99
Austria 56 16 37 89 91
Norway 97 2 2 3 90
Turkey 86 65 189 123 81
Thailand 812 865 2,020 687 55
Madagascar 50 273 0 89 54
Indonesia 15 6 1,056 27 49
Japan 120 39 1,731 37 48
Mauritius 185 251 212 125 33
Germany 43 21 54 11 24
Tunisia 66 50 0 15 24
Portugal 48 2 15 179 19
27,877 15,224 39,618 40,539 43,242
Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos
no de animal excluyendo cashemira

2006

285,925
135,849
95,846
41,007
36,368
24,219
17,997
12,428
12,087
10,771
10,411
9,999
9,075
7,144
6,251
5,975
5,552
5,521
5,006
4,968
4,091
4,088
3,733

s Estados Unidos

PARTIR DEL 2002, LA 61101020, CAMBIO Y SE DIVIDIO EN 2


no de animal excluyendo cashemira

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


4,104 4,400 5,272 7,537 7,015
s Estados Unidos

no de animal excluyendo cashemira


s Estados Unidos
SE DIVIDIO EN 2
CODIGO HTS 61102010
Chompas, pullovers y artculos similares tejidos o a crochet de algodn con 36% de otras fibras

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
China 164 227 427 871 1,324
Pakistan 269 324 481 323 521
Hong Kong 486 318 314 307 469
Indonesia 16 179 87 158 51
Dominican Rep 344 9 27 49 1
Italy 740 831 757 607 380
Peru 279 390 668 659 499
India 241 582 276 292 105
Mexico 82 6,915 11,184 3,007 578
Macao 700 194 267 185 418
Taiwan 520 104 55 45 0
United Kingdom 135 120 81 208 213
Portugal 18 57 41 23 73
Colombia 13 14 13 166 79
Thailand 28 72 89 113 58
Nicaragua 0 0 0 0 0
Turkey 19 245 30 15 110
Canada 2,598 2,135 785 345 253
Cambodia 0 0 70 23 158
Bulgaria 40 49 4 1 13
Jordan 355 0 268 145 0
France 239 91 85 194 73
Greece 20 14 7 46 37
Vietnam 0 147 180 134 57
Bangladesh 144 193 29 130 91
Honduras 69 268 30 66 59
Germany 24 23 66 18 6
Tunisia 4 0 0 0 1
El Salvador 0 8 0 699 4
Romania 0 0 0 8 0
Norway 13 2 14 30 4
Netherlands 6 3 0 19 19
Belgium 15 11 8 8 7
Ecuador 8 6 9 6 7
Japan 2 6 16 34 10
Korea 227 37 142 162 39
Spain 21 12 16 10 32
Poland 26 0 0 0 0
Austria 8 2 0 12 11
Brazil 1 1 0 103 4
Philippines 303 25 89 102 0
United Arab Em 0 0 0 63 0
Lithuania 2 1 7 0 27
Sweden 14 6 0 7 2
Costa Rica 13 0 0 0 0
Nepal 2 45 30 4 16
Ireland 22 9 5 6 31
Denmark 26 1 2 13 7
Israel 572 188 84 30 66
Morocco 6 1 6 18 1
Sri Lanka 150 129 0 21 255
Bolivia 293 31 30 2 10
9,277 14,025 16,779 9,487 6,179
Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos
6% de otras fibras

2010 2011

2,819 2,294
86 649
410 593
326 556
0 487
239 378
338 286
386 180
1,812 160
155 143
49 117
101 72
20 71
8 70
68 63
37 55
63 51
130 50
27 45
0 41
0 30
24 27
2 27
242 27
118 22
0 21
10 21
1 18
1,089 18
0 17
1 11
0 10
11 10
9 10
10 9
150 9
3 9
10 8
1 7
3 5
247 5
0 4
55 4
4 4
0 4
8 4
14 3
8 3
1 3
33 3
0 2
15 1
9,143 6,717
s Estados Unidos
CODIGO HTS 61169100
Guantes tejidos de lana o pelo fino de animal

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
China 10,189 8,709 10,917 13,984 13,762
Philippines 1,690 1,463 1,276 1,854 1,339
Italy 501 475 574 725 462
Haiti 218 176 202 254 181
Nepal 71 68 50 71 62
United Kingdom 427 161 167 243 321
Bolivia 52 206 222 102 148
Peru 100 120 107 87 115
Korea 35 11 45 142 36
Canada 164 123 94 102 82
Sri Lanka 82 30 27 50 5
Taiwan 231 488 169 153 117
Hong Kong 6 16 140 61 12
Uruguay 2 6 76 1 0
Pakistan 54 25 20 57 13
Croatia 0 0 0 6 62
Japan 14 12 12 12 14
France 30 32 44 24 75
Sweden 16 41 16 58 2
Ireland 12 37 16 12 8
Mongolia 0 0 2 6 1
Turkey 0 1 0 1 3
Germany 0 5 4 1 1
India 0 14 37 23 7
New Zealand 1 5 8 9 5
Vietnam 0 1 1 76 95
Morocco 0 3 5 2 0
Finland 0 0 0 0 1
Macao 92 0 1 1 0
Lithuania 0 0 0 5 0
Ecuador 2 2 5 3 0

Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos
2010 2011

8,732 10,408
1,288 1,273
526 694
263 462
84 273
437 273
277 267
127 195
87 91
59 53
63 49
115 47
30 46
1 38
10 30
46 25
20 25
38 22
0 17
8 17
5 5
2 5
3 4
3 3
15 3
32 2
0 2
2 2
1 1
1 1
0 1

s Estados Unidos
CODIGO HTS 61171010
Chales, chalinas, mantillas y otros tejidos o a crochet con lana o pelo fino de animal

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


PAIS
EN MILES DE DOLARES
China 23,033 19,052 28,363 49,502 37,281
Italy 5,421 3,393 3,344 3,491 3,441
United Kingdom 1,556 1,735 1,841 2,940 3,530
Philippines 3,479 1,990 2,605 2,392 1,803
Peru 188 202 230 364 494
Ireland 209 338 385 278 227
Nepal 61 114 155 123 140
Germany 146 128 276 176 269
Bolivia 28 68 92 144 130
France 176 264 141 216 262
India 268 427 205 459 358
Hong Kong 3,103 1,571 1,053 1,821 823
Japan 29 42 80 51 89
Uruguay 26 19 583 70 133
Croatia 0 2 1 64 109
Taiwan 174 166 267 1,047 32
Korea 50 144 87 52 31
Mauritius 0 30 173 67 120
Romania 0 0 1 1 46
Canada 132 94 70 84 94
Turkey 1 1 4 19 28
Belgium 12 18 66 51 29
Mongolia 2 32 32 161 20
Bulgaria 0 0 42 0 0
Mexico 190 5 52 15 6
South Africa 0 0 9 15 13
Norway 19 26 40 24 13
Denmark 0 7 1 2 3
Netherlands 1 3 0 1 0
Austria 40 25 19 26 32
Ecuador 57 13 18 25 37
Madagascar 0 73 123 71 1
Morocco 0 35 51 9 5
Pakistan 6 0 1 3 3
Portugal 0 1 3 9 2
New Zealand 9 8 9 9 13

Fuente: Data obtenida del Departamento de Comercio y Tesoro de los Estados Unidos
2010 2011

26,857 25,696
3,561 4,343
5,121 3,103
1,757 1,693
515 534
383 510
180 384
316 301
231 276
205 261
221 253
535 183
123 137
279 93
114 92
75 86
90 71
110 55
8 48
58 44
23 43
13 38
13 32
0 30
115 30
11 25
16 12
1 11
0 11
22 11
6 10
22 9
4 9
1 8
7 6
9 6

Estados Unidos
CODIGO HTS 61101020
Chompas, chalecos, pullovers y articulos similares tejidos o a crochet de lana o pelo fino de animal ex
Datos historicos de las Importaciones del Per para consumo

Cuadro 1.3 HTS 61101020


Ao FOB US$ x 1000
1995 2166
1996 1760
1997 2284
1998 2431
1999 3590
2000 3539
2001 4123
2002 4500
2003 5000
2004 5302
2005 3951
2006 4968
2007 4104
2008 4400
2009 5272
2010 7537
2011 7015

Fuente: Datos histricos en base a aduanas de los Estados Unidos de Norteamrica

Cuadro 1.4 - Clculo de regresin lineal HTS: 61101020

Ao X Yi Xi XiYi
US$ x 1000
1995 1 2166 1 2166
1996 2 1760 2 3520
1997 3 2284 3 6852
1998 4 2431 4 9724
1999 5 3590 5 17950
2000 6 3539 6 21234
2001 7 4123 7 28861
2002 8 4500 8 36000
2003 9 5000 9 45000
2004 10 5302 10 53020
2005 11 3951 11 43461
2006 12 4968 12 59616
2007 13 4104 13 53352
2008 14 4400 14 61600
2009 15 5272 15 79080
2010 16 7537 16 120592
2011 17 7015 17 119255

Suma 71942 153 761283


Promedio 4232 9

Y = 1,721.48 +

Elaboracion: Propia

Cuadro No. 1.5 - Regresin logartmica HTS:61101020

Ao X Yi = LN(Yi) Xi XiYi

1995 1 7.68 0 0
1996 2 7.47 0.69 5.18
1997 3 7.73 1.1 8.5
1998 4 7.80 1.39 10.81
1999 5 8.19 1.61 13.17
2000 6 8.17 1.79 14.64
2001 7 8.32 1.95 16.2
2002 8 8.41 2.08 17.49
2003 9 8.52 2.2 18.71
2004 10 8.58 2.3 19.75
2005 11 8.28 2.4 19.86
2006 12 8.51 2.48 21.15
2007 13 8.32 2.56 21.34
2008 14 8.39 2.64 22.14
2009 15 8.57 2.71 23.21
2010 16 8.93 2.77 24.75
2011 17 8.86 2.83 25.09

Suma 140.73 33.51 281.99


Promedio 8.28 1.97

Y* = 7.3762 +

==> Y = 1598 +

Cuadro 1.6 Proyeccin de datos histricos HTS: 61101020 en miles de US$


Ao X Yi Ys lineal Ys Log

1995 1 2166 2000.41 1598


1996 2 1760 2279.35 2194.4
1997 3 2284 2558.28 2641.73
1998 4 2431 2837.21 3013.39
1999 5 3590 3116.15 3337.31
2000 6 3539 3395.08 3627.66
2001 7 4123 3674.01 3892.77
2002 8 4500 3952.95 4138.03
2003 9 5000 4231.88 4367.16
2004 10 5302 4510.82 4582.85
2005 11 3951 4789.75 4787.13
2006 12 4968 5068.68 4981.56
2007 13 4104 5347.62 5167.39
2008 14 4400 5626.55 5345.62
2009 15 5272 5905.49 5517.06
2010 16 7537 6184.42 5682.41
2011 17 7015 6463.35 5842.24
2012 18 6742.29 5997.05
2013 19 7021.22 6147.26
2014 20 7300.15 6293.24
2015 21 7579.09 6435.32
2016 22 7858.02 6573.76
2017 23 8136.96 6708.84
2018 24 8415.89 6840.76
2019 25 8694.82 6969.74
2020 26 8973.76 7095.95
de lana o pelo fino de animal excluyendo cashemira

Norteamrica

xi = yi =
Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi

1 -8 -2066 64 16528 2000


4 -7 -2472 49 17304 2279
9 -6 -1948 36 11688 2558
16 -5 -1801 25 9005 2837
25 -4 -642 16 2568 3116
36 -3 -693 9 2079 3395
49 -2 -109 4 218 3674
64 -1 268 1 -268 3953
81 0 768 0 0 4232
100 1 1070 1 1070 4511
121 2 -281 4 -562 4790
144 3 736 9 2208 5069
169 4 -128 16 -512 5348
196 5 168 25 840 5627
225 6 1040 36 6240 5905
256 7 3305 49 23135 6184
289 8 2783 64 22264 6463

1785 408 113805

278.93 X r2 = 0.783

xi = yi =
Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi

0.00 -1.97 -0.60 3.88 1.18 7.38


0.48 -1.28 -0.81 1.64 1.03 7.69
1.21 -0.87 -0.55 0.76 0.48 7.88
1.93 -0.58 -0.48 0.34 0.28 8.01
2.59 -0.36 -0.09 0.13 0.03 8.11
3.20 -0.18 -0.11 0.03 0.02 8.2
3.80 -0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 8.27
4.33 0.11 0.13 0.01 0.01 8.33
4.84 0.23 0.24 0.05 0.05 8.38
5.29 0.33 0.30 0.11 0.10 8.43
5.76 0.43 0.00 0.18 0.00 8.47
6.15 0.51 0.23 0.26 0.12 8.51
6.55 0.59 0.04 0.35 0.02 8.55
6.97 0.67 0.11 0.45 0.07 8.58
7.34 0.74 0.29 0.55 0.21 8.62
7.67 0.80 0.65 0.64 0.52 8.64
8.01 0.86 0.58 0.74 0.50 8.67

76.17 10.12 4.63 140.72

0.4576 X* r2 = 0.807

X 0.4576

miles de US$
ei =
Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

166 331245 4267870


-519 -1183768 6110202
-274 -701683 3794246
-406 -1152514 3243177
474 1476595 412013
144 488617 480086
449 1649579 11855
547 2162466 71887
768 3250584 590005
791 3568885 1145152
-839 -4017403 78895
-101 -510334 541869
-1244 -6650392 16354
-1227 -6901255 28264
-633 -3741038 1081845
1353 8364927 10923803
552 3565490 7745744

40543267

ei =
Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

0.3 2.2 0.36


-0.22 -1.7 0.65
-0.15 -1.2 0.3
-0.21 -1.7 0.23
0.07 0.6 0.01
-0.02 -0.2 0.01
0.06 0.5 0
0.08 0.7 0.02
0.14 1.2 0.06
0.15 1.3 0.09
-0.19 -1.6 0
0 0.0 0.05
-0.23 -2.0 0
-0.19 -1.6 0.01
-0.05 -0.4 0.09
0.28 2.4 0.42
0.18 1.6 0.33

0.0 2.63
CODIGO HTS: 61102010

Chompas, pullovers y artculos similares tejidos o a crochet de algodn con 36% de otras fibras

Datos histricos de las Importaciones del Per para Consumo

Ao FOB US$ x 1000


1995 34
1996 12
1997 31
1998 20
1999 39
2000 68
2001 79
2002 91
2003 171
2004 289
2005 279
2006 390
2007 668
2008 659
2009 499
2010 338
2011 286

FUENTE: Datos historicos en base a aduanas Estados Unidos


www.dataweb.usitc.gov

Anexo 18 Regresin lineal HTS:61102010

Ao X Yi Xi
US$ x 1000
1995 1 34.00 1.00
1996 2 12.00 2.00
1997 3 31.00 3.00
1998 4 20.00 4.00
1999 5 39.00 5.00
2000 6 68.00 6.00
2001 7 79.00 7.00
2002 8 91.00 8.00
2003 9 171.00 9.00
2004 10 289.00 10.00
2005 11 279.00 11.00
2006 12 390.00 12.00
2007 13 668.00 13.00
2008 14 659.00 14.00
2009 15 499.00 15.00
2010 16 338.00 16.00
2011 17 286.00 17.00

Suma 3,953 153


Promedio 232.5294117647 9

Y = -84.70

Elaboracin: Propia

Anexo 19 Regresin logaritmica HTS:61102010

Ao X Yi = LN(Yi) Xi

1995 1 3.53 0.00


1996 2 2.48 0.69
1997 3 3.43 1.10
1998 4 3.00 1.39
1999 5 3.66 1.61
2000 6 4.22 1.79
2001 7 4.37 1.95
2002 8 4.51 2.08
2003 9 5.14 2.20
2004 10 5.67 2.30
2005 11 5.63 2.40
2006 12 5.97 2.48
2007 13 6.50 2.56
2008 14 6.49 2.64
2009 15 6.21 2.71
2010 16 5.82 2.77
2011 17 5.66 2.83

Suma 82.30 33.51


Promedio 4.84 1.97

Y* = 2.0651

==> Y = 8.27

Elaboracin: Propia
CONCLUSION: LA REGRESION LOGARITMICA REPRESENTA LA MEJOR PROYECCION POR TENER UN MEJOR
COEFICIENTE DE DETERMINACION r2

Anexo 20 Proyeccin de datos histricos HTS:6102010

Ao X Yi Ys lineal
x1000 US$
1995 1 34 -49.45
1996 2 12 -14.20
1997 3 31 21.04
1998 4 20 56.29
1999 5 39 91.54
2000 6 68 126.79
2001 7 79 162.03
2002 8 91 197.28
2003 9 171 232.53
2004 10 289 267.78
2005 11 279 303.02
2006 12 390 338.27
2007 13 668 373.52
2008 14 659 408.77
2009 15 499 444.01
2010 16 338 479.26
2011 17 286 514.51
2012 18 549.76
2013 19 585.00
2014 20 620.25
2015 21 655.50
2016 22 690.75
2017 23 726.00
2018 24 761.24
2019 25 796.49
2020 26 831.74
Elaboracin: Propia
odn con 36% de otras fibras

xi = yi =
XiYi Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2

34.00 1.00 -8 -198.53 64.00


24.00 4.00 -7 -220.53 49.00
93.00 9.00 -6 -201.53 36.00
80.00 16.00 -5 -212.53 25.00
195.00 25.00 -4 -193.53 16.00
408.00 36.00 -3 -164.53 9.00
553.00 49.00 -2 -153.53 4.00
728.00 64.00 -1 -141.53 1.00
1539.00 81.00 0 -61.53 0.00
2890.00 100.00 1 56.47 1.00
3069.00 121.00 2 46.47 4.00
4680.00 144.00 3 157.47 9.00
8684.00 169.00 4 435.47 16.00
9226.00 196.00 5 426.47 25.00
7485.00 225.00 6 266.47 36.00
5408.00 256.00 7 105.47 49.00
4862.00 289.00 8 53.47 64.00

49958 1785 408

+ 35.25 X r2 =

xi = yi =
XiYi Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2

0.00 0.00 -1.97088667 -1.31 3.88


1.72 0.48 -1.27773949 -2.36 1.63
3.77 1.21 -0.87227438 -1.41 0.76
4.15 1.92 -0.58459231 -1.85 0.34
5.90 2.59 -0.36144876 -1.18 0.13
7.56 3.21 -0.1791272 -0.62 0.03
8.50 3.79 -0.02497652 -0.47 0.00
9.38 4.32 0.10855487 -0.33 0.01
11.30 4.83 0.2263379 0.30 0.05
13.05 5.30 0.33169842 0.83 0.11
13.50 5.75 0.4270086 0.79 0.18
14.83 6.17 0.51401998 1.13 0.26
16.68 6.58 0.59406268 1.66 0.35
17.13 6.96 0.66817066 1.65 0.45
16.82 7.33 0.73716353 1.37 0.54
16.14 7.69 0.80170205 0.98 0.64
16.02 8.03 0.86232667 0.82 0.74

176.47 76.17 10.13

+ 1.4084 X* r2 =

* X 1.4084
OYECCION POR TENER UN MEJOR

Ys Log
x1000 US$
8.27
21.95
38.86
58.27
79.79
103.15
128.16
154.68
182.59
211.80
242.22
273.80
306.48
340.19
374.91
410.58
447.18
484.67 484.67
523.02 523.02
562.20 562.02
602.19 602.19
642.97 642.97
684.51 684.51
726.79 726.79
769.80 769.80
813.52 813.52
ei =
xi.yi Ysi Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

1588.24 -49.45 83.45 -4126.73 39413.93


1543.71 -14.20 26.20 -372.18 48633.22
1209.18 21.04 9.96 209.51 40614.10
1062.65 56.29 -36.29 -2042.92 45168.75
774.12 91.54 -52.54 -4809.40 37453.63
493.59 126.79 -58.79 -7453.38 27069.93
307.06 162.03 -83.03 -13454.41 23571.28
141.53 197.28 -106.28 -20967.48 20030.57
0.00 232.53 -61.53 -14307.40 3785.87
56.47 267.78 21.22 5683.04 3188.93
92.94 303.02 -24.02 -7280.02 2159.52
472.41 338.27 51.73 17498.12 24796.99
1741.88 373.52 294.48 109994.20 189634.63
2132.35 408.77 250.23 102286.97 181877.16
1598.82 444.01 54.99 24414.28 71006.57
738.29 479.26 -141.26 -67701.67 11124.04
427.76 514.51 -228.51 -117570.53 2859.10

14381 772388.235294

0.6563

ei =
xi.yi Ysi Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

2.59 2.07 1.46 3.02 1.73


3.01 3.04 -0.56 -1.69 5.55
1.23 3.61 -0.18 -0.64 1.98
1.08 4.02 -1.02 -4.11 3.40
0.43 4.33 -0.67 -2.90 1.39
0.11 4.59 -0.37 -1.69 0.39
0.01 4.81 -0.44 -2.10 0.22
-0.04 4.99 -0.48 -2.41 0.11
0.07 5.16 -0.02 -0.09 0.09
0.27 5.31 0.36 1.90 0.68
0.34 5.44 0.19 1.03 0.62
0.58 5.56 0.40 2.23 1.27
0.99 5.68 0.83 4.69 2.77
1.10 5.78 0.71 4.10 2.72
1.01 5.88 0.33 1.96 1.88
0.79 5.97 -0.15 -0.88 0.96
0.70 6.06 -0.40 -2.42 0.66

14.27 82.30 0.0000 22.92

0.8769
CODIGO HTS 61169100
Guantes tejidos de lana o pelo fino de animal

Datos histricos de las Importaciones del Per para Consumo

Ao FOB US$ x 1000


1995 23
1996 8
1997 11
1998 50
1999 16
2000 34
2001 41
2002 46
2003 61
2004 75
2005 100
2006 120
2007 107
2008 87
2009 115
2010 127
2011 195

www.dataweb.usitc.gov

Anexo 22 Regresin lineal HTS 61169100

Ao X Yi ( US$) Xi XiYi

1995 1 23 1 23
1996 2 8 2 16
1997 3 11 3 33
1998 4 50 4 200
1999 5 16 5 80
2000 6 34 6 204
2001 7 41 7 287
2002 8 46 8 368
2003 9 61 9 549
2004 10 75 10 750
2005 11 100 11 1100
2006 12 120 12 1440
2007 13 107 13 1391
2008 14 87 14 1218
2009 15 115 15 1725
2010 16 127 16 2032
2011 17 195 17 3315

Suma 1,216 153 14731


Promedio 71.5294117647 9

Y = -12.01 +

Elaboracin: Propia

Anexo 23 Regresin logaritmica HTS:61169100

Ao X Yi = LN(Yi) Xi XiYi

1995 1 3.14 0.00 0.00


1996 2 2.08 0.69 1.44
1997 3 2.40 1.10 2.63
1998 4 3.91 1.39 5.42
1999 5 2.77 1.61 4.46
2000 6 3.53 1.79 6.32
2001 7 3.71 1.95 7.23
2002 8 3.83 2.08 7.96
2003 9 4.11 2.20 9.03
2004 10 4.32 2.30 9.94
2005 11 4.61 2.40 11.04
2006 12 4.79 2.48 11.90
2007 13 4.67 2.56 11.99
2008 14 4.67 2.64 12.33
2009 15 4.47 2.71 12.09
2010 16 4.47 2.77 12.38
2011 17 4.47 2.83 12.65

Suma 65.93 33.51 138.83


Promedio 3.88 1.97

Y* = 2.1498 +

==> Y = 8.58 *
Elaboracin: Propia
CONCLUSION: LA REGRESION LINEAL REPRESENTA LA MEJOR PROYECCION POR TENER UN MEJOR
COEFICIENTE DE DETERMINACION r2. POR CONSIDERACIONES DE RESTRICCION DE MERCADO
VOY A CONSIDERAR LA REGRESION LOGARITMICA PARA FINES DE PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA.

Anexo 24 Proyeccin de datos histricos HTS:61169100

Ao X Yi Ys lineal Ys Log

1995 1 23 -2.73 8.58


1996 2 8 6.56 15.76
1997 3 11 15.84 22.49
1998 4 50 25.12 28.94
1999 5 16 34.40 35.19
2000 6 34 43.68 41.30
2001 7 41 52.97 47.27
2002 8 46 62.25 53.15
2003 9 61 71.53 58.93
2004 10 75 80.81 64.64
2005 11 100 90.09 70.27
2006 12 120 99.38 75.84
2007 13 107 108.66 81.36
2008 14 87 117.94 86.82
2009 15 115 127.22 92.24
2010 16 127 136.50 97.61
2011 17 195 145.78 102.94
2012 18 155.07 108.23
2013 19 164.35 113.49
2014 20 173.63 118.71
2015 21 182.91 123.90
2016 22 192.19 129.06
2017 23 201.48 134.19
2018 24 210.76 139.29
2019 25 220.04 144.37
2020 26 229.32 149.42

Elaboracin: Propia
23
8
11
50
16
34
41
46
61
75
100
120
107
87
115

127

xi = yi =
Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi

1 -8 -49 64 388 -3
4 -7 -64 49 445 7
9 -6 -61 36 363 16
16 -5 -22 25 108 25
25 -4 -56 16 222 34
36 -3 -38 9 113 44
49 -2 -31 4 61 53
64 -1 -26 1 26 62
81 0 -11 0 0 72
100 1 3 1 3 81
121 2 28 4 57 90
144 3 48 9 145 99
169 4 35 16 142 109
196 5 15 25 77 118
225 6 43 36 261 127
256 7 55 49 388 137
289 8 123 64 988 146

1785 408 3787

9.28 X r2 = 0.8452

xi = yi =
Xi2 Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi

0.00 -1.97088667 -0.74 3.88 1.46 2.15


0.48 -1.27773949 -1.80 1.63 2.30 2.76
1.21 -0.87227438 -1.48 0.76 1.29 3.11
1.92 -0.58459231 0.03 0.34 -0.02 3.37
2.59 -0.36144876 -1.11 0.13 0.40 3.56
3.21 -0.1791272 -0.35 0.03 0.06 3.72
3.79 -0.02497652 -0.16 0.00 0.00 3.86
4.32 0.10855487 -0.05 0.01 -0.01 3.97
4.83 0.2263379 0.23 0.05 0.05 4.08
5.30 0.33169842 0.44 0.11 0.15 4.17
5.75 0.4270086 0.73 0.18 0.31 4.25
6.17 0.51401998 0.91 0.26 0.47 4.33
6.58 0.59406268 0.79 0.35 0.47 4.40
6.96 0.66817066 0.79 0.45 0.53 4.46
7.33 0.73716353 0.59 0.54 0.43 4.52
7.69 0.80170205 0.59 0.64 0.47 4.58
8.03 0.86232667 0.59 0.74 0.51 4.63

76.17 10.13 8.89 65.93

0.8770 X* r2 = 0.6922

X 0.8770
ON POR TENER UN MEJOR
CCION DE MERCADO
CCION DE LA DEMANDA.
ei =
Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

26 -70 2355
1 9 4036
-5 -77 3664
25 625 464
-18 -633 3084
-10 -423 1408
-12 -634 932
-16 -1011 652
-11 -753 111
-6 -470 12
10 893 811
21 2050 2349
-2 -180 1258
-31 -3649 239
-12 -1555 1890
-10 -1297 3077
49 7175 15245

41586.2353

ei =
Yi - Ysi Ysi.ei yi2

0.99 2.12 0.55


-0.68 -1.87 3.24
-0.72 -2.23 2.19
0.55 1.84 0.00
-0.79 -2.81 1.22
-0.19 -0.72 0.12
-0.14 -0.55 0.03
-0.14 -0.58 0.00
0.03 0.14 0.05
0.15 0.62 0.19
0.35 1.50 0.53
0.46 1.98 0.83
0.27 1.20 0.63
0.21 0.93 0.63
-0.06 -0.27 0.35
-0.12 -0.53 0.35
-0.17 -0.78 0.35

0.0000 11.26

2.1494
CODIGO HTS 61171010
Chales, chalinas, mantillas y otros tejidos o a crochet con lana o pelo fino de animal

Datos histricos de las Importaciones del Per para Consumo

Ao FOB US$ x 1000


1995 8
1996 70
1997 10
1998 18
1999 20
2000 37
2001 64
2002 104
2003 138
2004 175
2005 188
2006 202
2007 230
2008 364
2009 494
2010 515
2011 534

FUENTE: Datos historicos en base a aduanas Estados Unidos


www.dataweb.usitc.gov

Anexo 26 Regresin lineal HTS:61171010

Ao X Yi ( US$) Xi XiYi Xi2

1995 1 8 1 8 1
1996 2 70 2 140 4
1997 3 10 3 30 9
1998 4 18 4 72 16
1999 5 20 5 100 25
2000 6 37 6 222 36
2001 7 64 7 448 49
2002 8 104 8 832 64
2003 9 138 9 1242 81
2004 10 175 10 1750 100
2005 11 188 11 2068 121
2006 12 202 12 2424 144
2007 13 230 13 2990 169
2008 14 364 14 5096 196
2009 15 494 15 7410 225
2010 16 515 16 8240 256
2011 17 534 17 9078 289

Suma 3,171 153 42150 1785


Promedio 186.5294117647 9

Y = -113.71 + 33.36

Elaboracin: Propia

Anexo 27 Regresin logaritmica HTS:61171010

Ao X Yi = LN(Yi) Xi XiYi Xi2

1995 1 2.08 0.00 0.00 0.00


1996 2 4.25 0.69 2.94 0.48
1997 3 2.30 1.10 2.53 1.21
1998 4 2.89 1.39 4.01 1.92
1999 5 3.00 1.61 4.82 2.59
2000 6 3.61 1.79 6.47 3.21
2001 7 4.16 1.95 8.09 3.79
2002 8 4.64 2.08 9.66 4.32
2003 9 4.93 2.20 10.83 4.83
2004 10 5.16 2.30 11.89 5.30
2005 11 5.24 2.40 12.56 5.75
2006 12 5.31 2.48 13.19 6.17
2007 13 5.44 2.56 13.95 6.58
2008 14 5.90 2.64 15.56 6.96
2009 15 6.20 2.71 16.80 7.33
2010 16 6.24 2.77 17.31 7.69
2011 17 6.28 2.83 17.79 8.03

Suma 77.63 33.51 168.40 76.17


Promedio 4.57 1.97

Y* = 1.5701 + 1.5203

==> Y = 4.81 * X
Elaboracin: Propia
CONCLUSION: LA REGRESION LINEAL REPRESENTA LA MEJOR PROYECCION POR TENER UN MEJOR
COEFICIENTE DE DETERMINACION r2

Anexo 28 Proyeccin de datos histricos HTS:61171010

Ao X Yi Ys lineal Ys Log

1995 1 8 -80.35 4.81


1996 2 70 -46.99 13.80
1997 3 10 -13.63 25.56
1998 4 18 19.73 39.58
1999 5 20 53.09 55.57
2000 6 37 86.45 73.31
2001 7 64 119.81 92.68
2002 8 104 153.17 113.54
2003 9 138 186.53 135.80
2004 10 175 219.89 159.40
2005 11 188 253.25 184.25
2006 12 202 286.61 210.31
2007 13 230 319.97 237.52
2008 14 364 353.33 265.85
2009 15 494 386.69 295.25
2010 16 515 420.05 325.69
2011 17 534 453.41 357.14
2012 18 486.77 389.56 846.77
2013 19 520.13 422.93 520.13
2014 20 553.49 457.24 553.49
2015 21 586.85 492.44 586.85
2016 22 620.21 528.53 620.21
2017 23 653.57 565.48 653.57
2018 24 686.93 603.28 686.93
2019 25 720.29 641.91 720.29
2020 26 753.65 681.35 753.65

Elaboracin: Propia
xi = yi = ei =
Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi Yi - Ysi

-8 -179 64 1428 -80 88


-7 -117 49 816 -47 117
-6 -177 36 1059 -14 24
-5 -169 25 843 20 -2
-4 -167 16 666 53 -33
-3 -150 9 449 86 -49
-2 -123 4 245 120 -56
-1 -83 1 83 153 -49
0 -49 0 0 187 -49
1 -12 1 -12 220 -45
2 1 4 3 253 -65
3 15 9 46 287 -85
4 43 16 174 320 -90
5 177 25 887 353 11
6 307 36 1845 387 107
7 328 49 2299 420 95
8 347 64 2780 453 81

408 13611

X r2 = 0.8468

xi = yi = ei =
Xi - Xp Yi - Yp xi2 xi.yi Ysi Yi - Ysi

-1.97088667 -2.49 3.88 4.90 1.57 0.51


-1.27773949 -0.32 1.63 0.41 2.62 1.62
-0.87227438 -2.26 0.76 1.97 3.24 -0.94
-0.58459231 -1.68 0.34 0.98 3.68 -0.79
-0.36144876 -1.57 0.13 0.57 4.02 -1.02
-0.1791272 -0.96 0.03 0.17 4.29 -0.68
-0.02497652 -0.41 0.00 0.01 4.53 -0.37
0.10855487 0.08 0.01 0.01 4.73 -0.09
0.2263379 0.36 0.05 0.08 4.91 0.02
0.33169842 0.60 0.11 0.20 5.07 0.09
0.4270086 0.67 0.18 0.29 5.22 0.02
0.51401998 0.74 0.26 0.38 5.35 -0.04
0.59406268 0.87 0.35 0.52 5.47 -0.03
0.66817066 1.33 0.45 0.89 5.58 0.31
0.73716353 1.64 0.54 1.21 5.69 0.52
0.80170205 1.68 0.64 1.35 5.79 0.46
0.86232667 1.71 0.74 1.48 5.88 0.40

10.13 15.40 77.63

X* r2 = 0.7749

1.5203
UN MEJOR
Ysi.ei yi2

-7099 31873
-5498 13579
-322 31163
-34 28402
-1757 27732
-4275 22359
-6686 15013
-7531 6811
-9052 2355
-9871 133
-16525 2
-24250 239
-28788 1890
3770 31496
41495 94538
39883 107893
36540 120736

536214.235

Ysi.ei yi2

0.80 6.19
4.26 0.10
-3.04 5.13
-2.90 2.81
-4.10 2.47
-2.93 0.91
-1.67 0.17
-0.41 0.01
0.08 0.13
0.48 0.36
0.11 0.45
-0.21 0.55
-0.17 0.76
1.76 1.77
2.93 2.68
2.65 2.81
2.37 2.94

0.0000 30.22

1.5707