SCENARIO

PLANNING: developing a shared understanding of the influences

on the economic development of the East of England
 SCENARIO PLANNING:

DEVELOPING A SHARED UNDERSTANDING OF THE INFLUENCES ON

THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST OF ENGLAND

Table of contents

1 Overview of the scenario planning process

1.1 Background to process 3

1.2 Purpose of scenarios 3

2 Driver development and analysis

2.1 Overview of driver development 5

2.2 Social drivers 6

2.3 Technological drivers 13

2.4 Economic drivers 14

2.5 Environmental drivers 20

2.6 Political drivers 22

2.7 Organisational drivers 25

2.8 Drivers analysis & prioritisation 27

3 Scenario development and testing

3.1 Scenario axes 28

3.2 Using scenarios 29

3.3 Scenario transcripts - summary 30

4 Strategy development and action planning

4.1 Risk and opportunities 32

4.2 Strategic imperatives and preferences 33

4.3 Developing the regional economic strategy 36

5 Appendices

5.1 Scenario transcripts - full 50

5.2 List of organisations that attended workshops 58

1 OVERVIEW OF THE
SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS

1.1 Background to process 1.2 Purpose of scenarios

The East of England Development Agency (EEDA), with the
support of the East of England Regional Assembly (EERA),
has used a scenario planning approach to help inform the
review of the regional economic strategy for the East of
England. The process was been highly participative. It was
based around a series of workshops, held across the
region. Through these events, more than 50 organisations
have made an active contribution to the development of the
regional economic strategy. Appendix 5.2 lists the
organisations that attended these workshops.
Collectively, this process has helped build understanding of
the key drivers that could impact on the regions economic
development. These were then used as the basis for
building a set of diverse but plausible possible future
scenarios for the region. The scenarios were subsequently
explored and their implications for the region analysed to
help identify the key issues for the regional economic
strategy.
Scenarios are plausible and coherent stories of the future.
They are not predictions or forecasts. They have been
described as, a vehicle for envisioning where the world
could go so that we can learn in time to do something
different.1
The purpose of scenario development is to increase the
range of possible thoughts an organisation or group of
people can have about the future. This enables it to
develop a shared language about threats and possibilities
and to rehearse responses to change. In turn, this
increases speed and flexibility of response when the
environment does change.
The purpose of the exercise is not to predict the future, for
that is impossible without knowing all of the variables, but
to explore a number of wide ranging possible futures and
assess their implications for an organisation, or in this
case, the East of England.

The approach used by The Henley Centre, the consultancy

that assisted EEDA with the scenario planning exercise, is
based on current thinking about how organisations learn.
Stakeholders are involved from the first stage of the
process assembling and reviewing the drivers through
to the development of the scenarios and the assessment of
their implications.

The project was in three key phases, with workshops taking

place at each stage:

driver development and analysis

scenario development and testing

strategy development and action planning

This report gives an overview of each stage of the scenario

planning process, and how this process had helped the
development of a revised economic strategy for the region.

1
Schwartz, P. (1998): The art of the long view, (p 163), Wiley, Chichester
Page 4 Overview of the scenario planning process

Developing scenarios:

enables the region to identify what can be called
strategic imperatives (strategic issues which are
common across all or the majority of the scenarios and
which therefore should be addressed regardless of
which future scenario is most valuable or most
achievable)
finally, they enable the region over time to future-
proof its strategy, by assessing it against the
underlying drivers of the sustainable economic
development of the region. When changes occur in the
drivers, it should be better prepared and able to modify
its strategy accordingly.

enables the region to identify the risks and

opportunities associated with each of the scenarios,
giving a better understanding of which issues may
hinder a particular strategy, and prevent its
development, or identify areas where there are
potential opportunities to be taken

on the back of such analysis, they enable the region to

assess its strategic preferences. The scenarios
represent possible futures for the region. Some of
those futures are more hazardous than others.
Reviewing the scenarios means that stakeholders in
the region are more aware of the extent to which they
could influence the outcome of more positive/easy
scenarios and more negative/difficult ones. Testing
these against core competences allows identification of
priority areas or objectives for future strategy

The more divergent the scenarios - the greater the scope for exploration and challenging conventional wisdom

Explore,
rehearse But the scenarios
and test are still only a tool
to help to get
to the policy

Predict and
provide

Source: The Henley Centre, 2004

2 DRIVER DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS
2.1 Overview of driver development
The scenario planning exercise began in September 2003
with initial research into the issues and context of the
region, in order to assemble a set of key drivers and issues
for the region.
Drivers are defined as major forces or trends that will
shape the future environment within which the region
operates. Issues are typically structural issues which affect
the regions ability to respond to the drivers. Drivers and
issues were included which the region has little or no
influence or control over, as well as some that it can
influence to some degree.
The research into drivers and issues included:
analysis of existing regional research and insight,
including relevant strategies and policy papers
additional desk research, including that provided to
EEDA and The Henley Centre by third parties
interviews with a small number of key stakeholders in
the region
interrogation of The Henley Centres Knowledge Bank
of trends data, both qualitative and quantitative,
including changes in citizen and consumer attitudes
and behaviour as well as macro shifts in socio-
economic and technological trends.
This research enabled a pack of almost 50 key drivers and
issues to be assembled, which were felt to have a
potentially significant impact on the region and its long
term economic development.
Whilst accepting that drivers will cut across many
categories, for ease of comprehension, they are set out in
the following section under the STEEPO categories:
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Organisational
The drivers presented on the following pages are a
synthesis of the different opinions and issues identified in
the initial research stage. They are described broadly as
they were presented in the workshops and do not
necessarily represent the views of EEDA or The Henley
Centre.
Page 6 Driver development and analysis

2.2 Social drivers

Polarised society - Rich-poor poverty gap widening

Income inequalities between the rich and poor have Distribution of Household Income in East of England, 2001
increased in the developed world in the last 20 years.
Across the UK, top managers pay rises continue to be
well in excess of the average and income is continuing
to rise faster in better-off areas.

Looking forward to the next ten years, it is widely

believed that the rich will continue to get richer due to
skill requirements in the growing knowledge-based
economy. This has been described as the 30-40-30
society, with the top 30 per cent seeing earnings rise as
their scarce skills are sought out by employers and the
bottom 30 per cent experiencing increased job
insecurity and falling real wages.2

Research by the Observatories Social Exclusion

Partnership (OSEP) has shown that there is a wide gap
between wealthy and poor neighbourhoods in the East
of England and this gap continues to widen.3

Source: Social exclusion in the

East of England, OSEP, 2001

Polarised region - Spatial polarisation of poverty in the East of England

The widening gap in income levels between the rich Ward ranking based on the Index of
and poor is particularly acute in some parts of the Multiple Deprivation, 2000
region. While unemployment in the East of England is
one of the lowest in the country and regional GDP per
head is higher than the national average, these Cromer

regional statistics fail to give an accurate picture of the

scale of deprivation in some areas. King's Lynn

Norwich
The Index of Multiple Deprivation 2000 highlights the Great Yarmouth
Peterborough
significant variation levels within the region eg. Great
Lowestoft

Yarmouth is ranked as the fifth most deprived district in Thetford

Ely

the country. Huntington

Bury St Edmunds
Deprivation often occurs in pockets smaller than Cambridge

the size of wards, meaning that areas in need of Bedford

Ipswich

additional funding do not register under Felixstowe

government measurements. Stevenage Stansted Colchester

Harwich

Luton

Research by OSEP has shown that spatial Hertford

Harlow
Clacton

St Albans Chelmsford 19 - 2964 botto

characteristics such as location and transport 19 - 2964 bottom 20%
2965 - 4413
Watford 2965 - 44134414 - 5732
infrastructure can heavily influence social exclusion Basildon 4414 - 57325733 - 7101
Southend 5733 - 71017102 - 8414
and thus the spatial polarisation of poverty.4 7102 - 8414

Source: Index of Multiple Deprivation 2000, DETR

ESRI UK (Ltd), Ordnance Survey
Crown Copyright, Bartholomew
2
The State Were In, Will Hutton, Random House, 1996
3, 4
Social exclusion in the East of England, OSEP, 2003
Driver development and analysis Page 7

Population growth

World population is forecast to continue growing rapidly Change in population between 1991 and 2001
over the next two decades. However, all the expected
growth is set to occur in the developing world.
According to the UN, the UK population is expected to
be relatively stable over the next twenty years.

The population growth rate for the East of England has

been well above the national average of 2.6 per cent,
but it has been unevenly distributed.

The Government has earmarked Milton KeynesSouth

Midlands, London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough
and the Thames Gateway as key Growth Areas for
accelerated housing development.

Regional planning guidance for East Anglia and South Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics
East proposed an additional 204,400 dwellings in
Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, and an additional
235,800 dwellings in Bedfordshire, Essex and
Hertfordshire between 1995 and 2016.

It has been suggested that the amount of required new

housing equates to the formation of two cities the size
of Bristol.

Ageing population

According to the Performance and Innovation Unit, the Proportion of houses with pensioners living alone
UK population will age in the future.5 This is confirmed
by Population Ageing Associates who state that the
projected changes over the next two decades for the
75-84 and 85+ age group in the East of England are
over 30 per cent and around 40 per cent respectively.6

The regions ageing population currently has a

geographic bias towards the coast. For example, the
coastal local authorities of Tendring and North Norfolk
are ranked within the top 10 local authority districts for
people aged 65 and over.7 Such high levels of retirement
accentuate economic inactivity within these areas.

The population of young working people is likely to

decrease over the next two decades; this would result
in fewer workers to support an increased number of
older people. Pension fund shortfalls and lack of saving
will also create pressure on individuals to retire later.

The Government has pledged to support later

retirement and has created a Public Service Agreement
target to increase the employment rates of people aged
50 and over. One such policy initiative is the New Deal
for over 50s, which is intended to help unemployed over
Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics
50s into work and could potentially support the regions
ESRI UK (Ltd), Ordnance Survey
skills gaps. Crown Copyright, Bartholomew

5
Short Survey of Published Material on Key UK Trends: 2001-2011, Performance and Innovation Unit, 2001
6
Implications of an ageing population for the sustainable development of the East of England, Population Ageing Associates, 2003
7
Regional Social Strategy: A strategy to improve the opportunites of everyone living and working in the region Consultation Draft, EERA, 2003
Page 8 Driver development and analysis

Regional migration - Out migration of young people

The East of England benefits from a net
in-migration of 20,000 per annum. Most migrants come
from London looking for a lower cost of living whilst
8
continuing to work in London and do not therefore
contribute to the regional work-based GDP.
Although commuters from the East of England
contribute in the region of 10 billion to the London
economy, these commuters can nevertheless
contribute to the local economy by spending their
earnings in the region.
In addition, there is a large out-migration of the 15-24
age group from the East of England. The region is a net
exporter of graduates, and the percentage of graduates
staying in the region is below the national average. This
is a particularly worrying issue as this group is
important for the continued vitality of the region by
bringing in new ideas and economic innovation.9
Percentage of First Degree Students remaining in region
for study (excludes distance learning) 2000/01

Net migration flows for the East of England,

by age, 2002 (000s)

Source: Region in Figures: East of England winter Source: Student Records,

2003 edition, Office for National Statistics Higher Education Statistics Agency

Building local social capital

Regional social capital creates community networks,
which can encourage sustainable locally led
regeneration. The East of England scores highly on
social support indicators, for example 66 per cent of
people aged 16 or over reported having five or more
people they could turn to in a crisis above the
national average of 58 per cent.10
These support networks are valuable in helping people
to try something new, the results of which can help the
regional economy, for example through small business
generation. In addition social capital can lead to new
forms of social enterprise, which can provide services
In addition to urban areas, formal and informal
networks could also be a significant issue for rural
parts of this region, enabling market towns and rural
communities to work together more effectively.
The EU Local Social Capital Pilot programme found the
following benefits were reported by beneficiaries of social
capital building project grants 2002
Percentage reporting:
Improved employability confidence 50-70%

and employment opportunities where gaps exist in the Improved skill levels 45-70%
local economy.
Established a new business 40-85%
The regional social economy is large and growing or found employment
larger, with a current annual turnover in the East of
England of around 3bn.11 Source: EU Local Social Capital Pilot Programme

8,9
East of England Framework for Regional Employment and Skills Action (FRESA), EEDA, 2003
10
Peoples perceptions of their neighbourhood and community involvement: Results from the social capital module of the General Households Survey 2000,
Office for National Statistics, 2002
11
Mapping the social economy in the East of England, The Guild, 2001
Driver development and analysis Page 9

Household fragmentation

Surveys forecast that the average size of the UK Number of households and average household size in
household (2.34 people) will fall to 2.24 by 2011 whilst Great Britain, 1951-2001
the number of one-person households will increase.12

Household surveys have shown that there has been a

decrease in the number of traditional households in the
East of England. From 1971 to 1996, married couple
households fell from 11.2 to 10.2 million and are
predicted to fall to 9.4 million in 2011.

Single person households are predicted to increase

from 30 per cent of total households in 2001 to 33 per
cent in 2011, whilst multi-person households are
predicted to increase by over 30 per cent from 1996 to
2011.13
Source: Projections of Households in England 2021,
Rising housing requirements will increase demands on
Department of Transport, Local Government and the
services and related infrastructure, whilst also creating
Regions, 1999
a higher demand for consumables.

Ethnic and cultural diversity

The UK has seen steady growth in its ethnic minority Distribution of ethnic groups within region, per cent
population in the last decade. However, proportions of
almost all minority populations in the East are below
the UK average and are growing at a slower rate 4
per cent of the regional population, compared to 8 per
cent nationally.14

There is an extremely uneven distribution of ethnic

minorities throughout the region ranging from around 2
per cent in Essex to 9 per cent in Bedfordshire.15

Ethnic and cultural diversity can provide a context for

innovation. On the other hand, there are concerns that
language barriers often result in enclosed groups that
are isolated from society at large such as the Indian
population in Luton and migrant farm workers.

Language barriers can also impact on employment

prospects; for example unemployment rates among
minority ethnic groups in the East of England are over
twice that of the rest of the population, reflecting the
national picture.14
Source: Region in Figures: East of England winter
2003 edition, Office for National Statistics

12
Britain in 2010, Richard Scase, 2000
13
Projections of Households in England 2021, Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions, 1999
14
Region in Figures: East of England, winter edition 2003, Office for National Statistics
15
FRESA Background Paper: Labour Market Analysis Annex A, EEDA, 2002
Page 10 Driver development and analysis

Attracting the creative class

To achieve competitive success, the region needs to Whilst the regions proximity to London gives easy
attract a talented, creative workforce to support all access to world-class cultural events and locations,
sectors. Current research suggests that diversity (of many feel the region does not have a metropolitan
culture, backgrounds and lifestyles) is likely to lead to feel. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the East of
innovation and economic success.16 England is still perceived by some as traditional, self
satisfied and conservative in outlook.
Todays talented and creative people can be encouraged
to relocate, but many have high expectations of the
places where they choose to live. These requirements
include a high quality of public space and facilities,
heritage and culture, as well as a more tolerant liberal
and outward looking community.

Rural isolation and networks

Population densities vary widely throughout the East of Regional population densities
England, from 440 people per square kilometre in
Bedfordshire to 143 in the rural areas of Norfolk (the
national average is 376).17

The region has a quarter of the UKs market towns,

but relatively few major city conurbations. Connectivity
between towns and satellite villages is poor.

Many rural areas were assessed as having high

deprivation and weak economic performance in a
recent DTZ study about regional priorities.18

Continued rural population decline will threaten the

viability of some remoter rural communities, while the
population is increasing in urban areas some of which
could already be considered overdeveloped.

Where there is movement from urban to rural areas,

there will be a greater pressure on infrastructure and
housing in rural areas and a greater need for
connectivity between county towns. In addition, the
region could experience increased tension between
urban and rural areas. Source: England Rural Development Programme:
East of England Chapter, Section 1.3.1 (Defra)

16
The Rise of the Creative Class: And How Its Transforming Work, Leisure Community and Everyday Life, Richard Florida, 2002
17
East of England Rural Development Programme: East of England Chapter, Section 1.3.1, Defra
18
Urban and Rural Prioritisation in the East of England, DTZ Pieda Consulting, 2002
Driver development and analysis Page 11

Tourism and cultural regeneration

A rising number of people are taking holidays in various Percentage of regional area designated as National
regions of the UK. Park/Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty

Excluding Cambridge, the East of England does not

have the kind of iconic attraction necessary to attract
high levels of tourist attention, although the Norfolk
Broads was highlighted as one of the strengths of the
region in a recent MORI poll.19

Tracts of abandoned rural landscape may provide

opportunities for tourism. For example, the Norfolk and
Suffolk coastline provides a good regional resource for
deep breaks. However, there are fears that planned
increases in housing and infrastructure may erode the
quality of landscape in some areas.

Strategic collaboration between regions may be

required to successfully exploit the full potential for Source: Regional Trends 38,
tourist opportunities (eg. the London Olympic bid). Office for National Statistics, 2004

Building homes not just houses - Development of housing, public space, and facilities

The East of England has one of the fastest growing Housing affordability in East of England (yellow and light
populations amongst the English regions. blue areas indicate those with likely affordability problems)

House prices have been rising steeply in recent years;

affordable housing and the provision of support
services remain key issues in many areas of the region.
Affordability is also a problem in some urban hotspots
for key workers.

New towns and the expansion of existing areas are

often focused upon the provision of high density
housing, without attending to the wider social aspects
such as improving support services, infrastructure,
public spaces and a sense of belonging.

Source: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister

Communities Plan, 2001

19
Perceptions of the East of England, MORI, 2000
Page 12 Driver development and analysis

Changing attitudes towards work

At a total UK level, average earnings are rising but job
satisfaction has fallen by 8 per cent in the last decade.
The Whats in it for me? attitude is now about more
than money, and expectations of non-pay related
rewards have grown, especially among graduates.
Changes to working practices are becoming much
more contentious, and workplace negotiations are
moving from command to contract. This is linked to
certain trends, such as the rise of weekend work,
part-time/temporary work, and overall, the greater
emphasis on service industries within the UK economy.

People lead ever busier lives, with 45 per cent

agreeing: I am so tired in the evenings; I often dont
have the energy to do much. People are accordingly
For which of these would you say a job is important to you?
seeking to renegotiate their work-life balance.20

Percentage of UK citizens who are satisfied

Source: Working in Britain PSI/LSE, 2000 Source: Working in Britain PSI/LSE, 2000

Public transport provision

In small rural communities, public transport can be
crucial for maintaining links to other areas capable of
providing the services and employment that are lacking
in the immediate area.
Poor public transportation creates social exclusion and
can contribute towards a sense of apathy and inertia
with regard to seeking employment or education that is
provided elsewhere.
People in the East of England are among the lowest
users of public transport as the main mode of
transport to work.21 This is partly because connections
between key market towns and east-west routes need
to be improved.
There is a perception that public transport in the region
is of bad quality, with congested and unreliable rail
links to London and elsewhere, and with sporadic and
infrequent bus services.

20
Planning for Consumer Change, The Henley Centre, 2000
21
Regional Trends 38, Office for National Statistics
Driver development and analysis Page 13

2.3 Technological drivers

Technological complexity - Technical skills in short supply

Increasing technological capability often leads to higher Percentage of Total Employee Jobs in the High and
complexity. For example, 15 years after its launch, Medium High Technology Sectors
Microsoft Word used 74 times more lines of
programming. Coupled with an increasing dependence
on technology, this has led to a shortage of skilled IT
workers able to manage/operate the necessary
systems.

The effect of a UK-wide technological skills gap has

been the placing of a premium on these skills.

The East of England may have a high number of

so-called technological specialists, but informal
feedback suggests that there is still a shortfall at the
high and medium end of the technology sector, where
regional demand outstrips supply. Source: Business in Britain survey, Lloyds TSB, 2001

Network society

In both social and economic spheres, interactive ICT take up in East of England (percentage of all businesses)
technology is opening up a world of connectivity and
convenience. Good high-tech infrastructure will enable
the region to be a competitive global player and
improve productivity levels.

Currently, a low demand for and understanding of

broadband in some parts of the East of England region
makes this area commercially unattractive to suppliers.
However, the rollout of broadband is likely to progress
in the long-term, and the key challenge will be to
ensure that development of ICT skills keep pace.

Source: East of England Regional ICT Benchmarking

Study, East of England Development Agency, 2003
Page Driver development and analysis

2.4 Economic drivers

Increasing globalisation of trade

Globalisation is a major influencing factor of the future It is recognised that the advancement of globalisation
economic and social environment in which the East of and EU enlargement cannot necessarily be influenced
England will be operating. directly at a regional level, but the region can play a
role in adapting to global changes and influencing the
Removing barriers to free trade and moving further into
local impacts of globalisation.
a global market place opens up new markets for East
of England companies, but also increases competition
in key sectors for trade and inward investment.

Globalisation of the labour market

Globalisation of the labour market is already having a As with the globalisation of trade, it is recognised that
direct impact on employment in the UK and the region, the advancement of this trend cannot necessarily be
especially seen in terms of outsourcing/relocation of influenced directly at a regional level, but the region
call centres and other service sector jobs. can play a role in adapting to global changes and
influencing the impact of globalisation.
In the East of England, call centres, customer service,
manufacturing, financial, IT and other business
services are significant areas of employment which
could potentially move elsewhere.

The Cambridge Phenomenon - Cambridges relationship with the East of England

The East of England has fewer large cities than other
regions. However, Cambridge is internationally
renowned and a recent poll identified the city as a key
strength of the region. It has been suggested by some,
though, that there is an institutional over-emphasis
on Cambridge.22
The paradox is that, despite plans for further
expansion, Cambridge already shows signs of
over-development. Yet, compared to driving cities of
other regions, Cambridge seems underpowered rather
than overpowered.

The recent Cambridge Phenomenon report outlined

three scenarios for Greater Cambridge, with varying
growth rates for the hi-tech sector but it also identified
barriers to the city fulfilling its potential.23

22
Perceptions of the East of England, MORI, 2000
23
The Cambridge Phenomenon - Fulfilling the Potential, Greater Cambridge Partnership, 2003
Driver development and analysis Page 15

Growth of the service and knowledge sector - The so called soft economy

In line with the trend in many western economies over Percentage of employee jobs by industry
the past 30 years, there has been a clear structural
change in the UK economy, away from employment
in manufacturing and towards employment in the
service sector.

There has been a 35 per cent decline in employees

working in manufacturing since 1985 but the
percentage of employees working in services has
increased 30 per cent over same period.

This shift to a service and knowledge based economy

has a strong impact on the East of England as a whole,
affecting almost every other aspect of it. Whist this
trend can be advantageous given the regions R&D and
knowledge base, the growth of the knowledge economy Source: Labour Market Survey, March 2003
is also associated with the emergence of the dual
labour market with knowledge jobs and lower level jobs
created simultaneously.

Increasing importance of knowledge specialists

Increasingly, the UKs economy revolves around In today's knowledge economy, which is based on
creating, sharing and using knowledge and information innovation, know-how, content and brands, it is the ability
to create wealth and improve peoples quality of life.24 to create, protect and exploit intellectual property that sets
a company apart and allows it to trade successfully.25
The East of England has a particularly strong
knowledge heritage. Competition for knowledge
specialists is set to grow, and companies and regions
will have to work harder to provide specialists with
incentives to stay.

There is already a shortage of people with higher level

qualifications in the region as the percentage of
economically active adults qualified to NVQ level 4 and
above (graduate level) is below the national average.

24
UK competitiveness: Moving to the Next Stage - DTI Economics Paper no 3, DTI, 2003
25
Harvard Business Review, Financial Times, November 2001
Page 16 Driver development and analysis

Consumers debt levels are rising

Debt levels are rising in all UK regions 43 per Current levels of spending may also be unsustainable,
cent agree with the statement: I am happy to have and could be reduced in future due to high levels of
short-term debt to allow me to buy the things I want.26 consumer debt.

Consumer borrowing has tripled in the last 10 years.

This may not be sustainable and could impact on
the long-term nature of peoples finances and
economic growth.

The decline of the R & D base?

The East of England region has a strong R&D base with Expenditure on R & D as a percentage of
the highest private sector R&D expenditure as a regional GVA, 1999
percentage of GVA amongst the English regions.

There are internationally-recognised research facilities

within the region's universities and a range of non-
university research establishments.

However, the regions current strong performance in

R&D is reliant on certain areas and companies.
Furthermore, the region appears to have difficulty
translating innovative R&D investment and business
ideas into large, successful indigenous companies.

Source: Regional Trends 36, Office for National Statistics

Encouraging entrepreneurship and enterprise

The East of England has relatively high levels of Patents granted, by region, 2000
entrepreneurship, but a recent SBS survey27 highlighted
a lack of would be entrepreneurs.

R&D results are not always translated into sustainable

business growth within the East of England, indicating
that the region needs to do more to grow, exploit and
develop its existing innovation capital.

Entrepreneurship and enterprise are important not only

for the growth of new businesses, but also for the
growth of aspiration across all levels and sectors in
the region.
Source: The Patent Office Annual Facts and Figures,
The Patent Office, 2000

26
Planning for Consumer Change, The Henley Centre
27
Household Survey of Entrepreneurship, Small Business Service, 2001
Driver development and analysis Page 17

Business composition & life cycle

The structure of the East of Englands business Percentage of employment by size of business
community is dominated by a large proportion of SMEs,
which broadly reflects the national picture.

Large businesses that operate in the region are often

not actually based here, so the region has little
influence on business decisions. However, large
companies can play an important role as centres of
knowledge.

The correct balance of larger and smaller businesses

to the region is necessary. It is also important that
business support is aligned with the existing structure
and that it cater for the needs of all types of
companies.

Source: SME Statistics, 2001, Small Business Service

Relationship with London Economic effects

The East of England has a relationship of high Much of this wealth makes it way back into the region
inter-dependency with London. in terms of consumer spending. However, the
expansion of London puts pressure on infrastructure
A significant proportion of those that live in the East of
development in East of England.
England commute elsewhere for work, and those who
commute to London contribute in the region of 10
billion to the London economy. This represents around
10 per cent of wealth created by those who live in the
region and can be as much as 25 per cent in some
sub-regions.

Low numbers entering higher education

More students are entering further and higher Percentage of young people aged 21 qualified to
education than ever before across the UK. at least NVQ level 3

The East of England closely follows national patterns of

educational qualification levels before 16, but is below
average at NVQ levels 3 and 4, and the region has a
relatively small higher education base.

14.7 per cent of the working age population in the East

have a degree or equivalent, compared with a national
average of 15.8 per cent (spring 2002).

This reduction in potential numbers of educated

professionals and technicians may be problematic for
the exploitation of new and emerging sectors,
especially in the knowledge economy.
Source: Regional Trends 37, Office for National Statistics
Page 18 Driver development and analysis

Skills gaps in the workforce

The East of England has a relatively strong Skill shortage vacancies as a percentage of total
performance in pre-16 education. However, there is a employment, 2001
worrying drop-off in performance in post-compulsory
education, with particularly low participation in higher
education.

The regions labour market shows signs of

mismatches between demand for and supply of
skills, with unemployment existing alongside
hard-to-fill vacancies.

6 per cent of employers in the region report skills

gaps within their current workforce, with larger Source: Employers skills survey 2001, Department
establishments in particular experiencing this difficulty.28 for Educations and Skills

Changes in land based industries

Employment in the agriculture, forestry and fishing Rural industry: employment in tourism, agriculture and
sectors represent 2.5 per cent of the working food processing (dark = higher density of employment)
population in the East of England (the national average
is 1.8 per cent). However, in certain rural areas (eg.
North Norfolk), this sector makes up 8.3 per cent of
total employment.29

Farming incomes are in long term decline, especially

as many farms have no successor. But it remains a key
industry along with food processing in the region.

The region receives 25 per cent of UK arable Common

Agricultural Policy receipts, so CAP reforms could have
a significant impact on the region.30

Tourism, recreational activities, the increased use of

bio-fuels and value-added food production provide
areas of potential expansion.

Source: East of England Rural Development Programme

1999, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Gateways to the sky

The number of air passengers continued to rise
throughout 2002 and 2003, and the trend is predicted to
continue in the future.
Both of the largest airports in the East of England
(Luton and Stansted) are also undergoing rapid
expansion and further development.
Airport infrastructure could create new dynamism and
reinforce the international status of key parts of the
region, bringing new investment and growth from
improved international connectivity.
However, growth in air travel can bring about negative
environmental effects.

28
FRESA Background Paper: Labour Market Analysis Annex A, EEDA, 2002
29
East of England Rural Development Programme 1999, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
30
An analysis of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy Mid Term Review Proposals on the East of England Region,
East of England Development Agency, 2003
Driver development and analysis Page 19

Gateways to the sea

The East of England has three significant container Major transport routes and gateways in the East of England
ports: Felixstowe, Harwich and Ipswich. Felixstowe Airport

handles 40 per cent of the UKs container trade. Seaport

Motorways

Passenger traffic is also predicted to increase and Major 'A' roads

A148

A140
Kings Lynn
many of the regions ports are planning developments Railways
A47 Great
Yarmouth

to increase capacity over the next few years.31 Norwich

A10 Lowestoft
A11 A143
A1(M) A141

A14 A12

A428

Ipswich
A1

M11
Felixstowe
M1 Stansted Harwich
A120
Luton

A414
M25

Southend

Shellhaven

Tilbury

Source: EEDA, 2004 ESRI (UK) Ltd, Ordnance

Survey Crown Copyright, Bartholomew

Surface transport infrastructure and UK connectivity

Although the south area of the East of England region Regional share of UK Treasury expenditure on transport
is well connected to the rest of the country, with vital between 1996-2002
connections to the M11 corridor, overall the region
suffers from lack of east to west transport routes, and
a lack of connectivity to other major UK road and rail
transport routes.

In addition, key local issues, such as the congestion on

the A14, remain significant barriers to developing
economic connectivity throughout the region.

A lack of transport connectivity also exacerbates the

feeling of exclusion for rural and coastal areas despite
the advance of broadband/ICT infrastructure.

Source: Realising our potential, HM Treasury, October 2002

Room to grow - Availability of business land

There is a widely recognised need to provide land for
business development and growth throughout the
region, but there are very few brownfield sites available
for further development.
Potential business developments are often crowded
out by the higher prices that housing developments
command.
Local areas often demonstrate a NIMBY attitude to
this issue, refusing proposals for new development
involving local land.
Much land in the region is green belt or designated
protected land (eg. it is prime agricultural land, MOD
owned or a Site of Specific Scientific Interest).32

31
South East England, London and East of England Regional Ports Study: Final Report, South East and Anglian Ports Local Authority Group, 2003
32
Regional Economic Strategy sub-regional study, Bone Wells, 2002
Page Driver development and analysis

2.5 Environmental drivers

Quality of life - Advantages of the regional environment

The East of England has qualitative advantages in Thinking about the future, how would you describe
terms of its built and natural environment, and a your view of quality of life in this part of the country in
number of other quality of life indicators. the years to come?

Quality of life is often a crucial influence in attracting

those with the right skills and entrepreneurial spirit to
the region, as well as influencing the growth of the
tourist sector.

Source: Survey of Public Attitudes to Quality of Life and to

the Environment: 2002, Defra

Environmental technologies

European and government regulations will increasingly
put pressure on businesses to operate in more
environmentally friendly ways.
Globally, the environmental technology industry is
forecast to grow each year as consumer demand for
environmentally friendly technologies increases.
While recognising that other countries are also
increasing their activities in this field, the development
of environmental technologies could be a crucial
growth area for the East of England, and there is
potential for the region to become a centre of
excellence and world leader based on its strong R&D
base and high level of expertise in this area.
Driver development and analysis Page 21

Waste

The Government aims to reduce industrial and Household waste recycled or composted per person
commercial waste landfill to 85 per cent of 1998 levels in 2001/2
by 2005. The number of landfill sites is now declining,
while the costs of using landfills are rising.
Manufacturing industries are facing rising waste
management costs.

The East has one of the highest rates of recycling in

UK. However, the East of England is a substantial
recipient of waste from London and the South East,
with significant negative implications for quality of life
in certain areas.

Despite a regional waste management strategy now in

place, manufacturing industries are likely to be heavily
impacted by the rising waste management costs.

Source: Regional Quality of Life Counts 2002, Defra

Waste issues are closely related to those of renewable
energy sources.

Climate change

UK climate change is predicted to be particularly
significant in the East of England.
Water shortages may become a real issue for the
region, while increased storm intensity will have
significant implications for flood events and coastal
processes. Low-lying coastal regions are likely to be
affected by increases in sea and freshwater flooding
and coastal erosion.
The region is likely to experience hotter, drier summers
and wilder winters. Higher temperatures may result in
more severe crop damage due to increases in insect
and fungal populations.33
Climate change has already had an impact, with a 0.5
degree Celsius temperature rise in the last 150 years,
and a rise in flash floods.34

33
East of England Rural Development Programme, 1999, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
34
Regional Quality of Life Counts, 2002, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Page Driver development and analysis

2.6 Political drivers

EU enlargement - Impact and benefits uncertain of expansion to the East

Expansion of the European Union seems certain to take However, expansion also increases access to new
place for political reasons only the timing and scale is markets, adding a further 100 million consumers to the
in doubt. scope of the single market.

Central Europes cost base is much lower than the
UKs, and this is likely to increase competition in
traditional sectors and markets, particularly
manufacturing, engineering, agriculture and food
processing.
Enlargement is expected to bring about five million
migrants to Western Europe by 2020.
A potentially negative implication of enlargement is that
it is likely to reduce the share of EU Objective 2 and 3
structural funds that is allocated to the East of England.

Development of the Euro-zone

The Britain in Europe campaigns sponsored report
calculated the opportunity costs of not joining the
Euro-zone at 120bn over two decades from lost
investment and lost trade.
However, recent polls suggest that two-thirds would
vote against joining in a UK referendum; the Swedish
no vote may reinforce these views.
Increases in imports/exports could also have an impact
upon the role of the ports in the East of England.
On the other hand, Euro-zone economies have not
performed well since their inception. The wider
benefits are not yet clear and it remains uncertain
whether a single EU monetary and financial policy will
suit all EU regions.35

UK exporters could benefit from being inside the

Euro-zone, while staying outside could harm chances
of attracting inward investment.

Regional devolution

The precise nature of regional government is still a Do you want a referendum about establishing an elected
subject of debate. Although there has already been regional assembly in your region?
created a Scottish parliament, Welsh and Northern
Irish Assemblies, the concept is not actively supported
by all political parties.

There is little public support for a referendum on an

elected regional assembly in the East of England.
The weakness of its regional identity and brand
perhaps make this unlikely to change in the near
future. However, the success or failure of the first
English Regional Assemblies, and Scotch & Welsh
experience could affect public opinion in the region.

Some regional stakeholders feel that more time should

be given to allow existing, evolving partnerships to
mature under present arrangements.
Source: Your Region, Your Say: Annex C Data tables,
Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 2003

35
Eurobarometer 58, December 2002, BBC Opinion polls
Driver development and analysis Page 23

Regional identity

Unlike other regions, the East of England is a relatively Which regional name do you most associate yourself with?
recent invention.

People often feel more affiliation to areas that

are a sub-area of the region (eg. East Anglia) or
that are larger than regional boundaries (eg. the
wider south east).

There is particularly low recognition of Hertfordshire

and Bedfordshire as forming part of the East of
England. This is often exacerbated by media
transmission areas. For example, Three Counties Radio
(Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire)
cuts across governmental regions.

The lack of any large-scale, flagship, aspirational

developments, such as the Eden Project, deprives people
of a potential focus for regional pride and identity.
Source: Perceptions of the East of England, MORI, 2003

Intra-regional rivalry

Despite efforts on the part of regional partners, there Others see the East of England as too small or
remains a perception that fierce local rivalries and underpowered to compete on its own, and they would
competition exist within and between East of England view co-operation with other regions or sub-regions as
sub-regions. Disparate economic interests, difficulties the key to their own future success.
and aspirations of different areas are also central to
Such rivalries further inhibit the promotion of the East
this perception.
of England as a coherent region, and make clear and
The aspirations of particular towns and cities to focused leadership difficult to achieve.
establish themselves in their own right, and the lack of
a clear unifying regional identity, further exacerbates
the issue.

Regional leadership and engagement required to deliver change

Regional leadership in the widest sense, which
includes the private, public and third sector should be
a catalyst for the East of England.
Responsibility for economic development has shifted
from a national to a regional focus.
Regional leadership is particularly important in terms
of providing a clear regional focus on key issues in
order to overcome local rivalries, promote
collaboration, and raise aspirations.
Page Driver development and analysis

Evolution of partnerships in public service delivery

The Government believes that public/private The presence of big company headquarters in the
partnerships could inject an innovative and greater southeast would increase the viability of this
entrepreneurial approach into public services. strategy within the East of England.

However, concerns remain about the privatisation of

public services, with the public remaining sceptical and
willing investors being hard to find.

EEDA has a small budget and receives less public

money than most other regions. There is an incentive to
find alternative sources of funding and support to
achieve objectives, as recognised in some of the
sub-regional strategies and action plans.

National priorities on regional spending - Too successful for your own good?

The current round of government PSAs places a heavy Single Programme budgets, 2002/03
focus on closing regional performance gaps.

The East of England has been consistently near the

bottom of the pile in terms of public expenditure per
head of population, as shown by a recent study
sponsored by the Government.36 The perception of the
region as high performing means that it often loses out
on discretionary funds for economic development and
regeneration. For example, the EEDA has the smallest
single pot budget.

There is an identified need to persuade national

government to build on existing UK strengths/centres
Source: DTI 15 May 2002
of excellence. In addition, there is a need to use
existing resources better in the East of England.

The future impact of the Lyons Review of the public

sector is still unclear.

36
Identifying the flow of domestic and European expenditure into the English regions, Nuffield College Oxford, September 2003
Driver development and analysis Page 25

2.7 Organisational drivers

Changing workforce structure

The workforce is becoming more diverse: by 2010, less Social class of working age population, 2002
than 20 per cent of the workforce will be comprised of
white males under 45 in full-time work.37

Different skills are also coming to the fore as the

service sector becomes the majority area of
employment.

Professional and managerial jobs are predicted to

increase by 15 per cent to 2010.37

Despite this growing diversity, the perception remains

that there are a number of barriers to participation of
different groups at different levels. Equal opportunities
provision needs to be addressed in terms of people Source: Regional Trends 37, Office for National Statistics
with disabilities, minority groups and the gay
community. The disabled are twice as likely to be
unemployed in the region.

Women in the workforce - Working towards economic and social equality

The UK workforce now has an equal share of men Gender distribution of UK workforce
and women.

Nationally, womens earning potential has grown from

around 61 per cent of a man's hourly rate in 1970 to 83
per cent today.

The average womans wage in the East of England is

just 74 per cent of the average for men. Recent surveys
also highlighted relatively low numbers of female
entrepreneurs in the region.38

The number of UK women returning to work within a

year of having a child rose from 24 per cent in 1979 to
67 per cent in 1999. The growing importance of women
in the workplace puts greater emphasis on the Source: Labour Force Survey, 2002,
provision of childcare and other facilities. Office for National Statistics

37
Labour Force Survey, 2002, Office for National Statistics
38
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: United Kingdom 2002, London Business School
Page
The rising importance of flexible businesses - Flexible business processes, services & organisations
New types of flexible businesses are very important to
the regions economy, given existing assets and global
competition in more traditional areas of business.
Rising to this challenge would be a big part of the
regions response to globalisation.
Changing shape of organisations - Fragmentation and structural diversity
Many sizeable enterprises today are comprised of
smaller organisational and technological units. The
trend towards outsourcing is driven by a need to cut
costs, harness best expertise, and sharpen focus on
the central business.
There is a trend towards IT and financial outsourcing in
big organisations, and an increasing use of business
consultancy.
There is some speculation about the death of
traditional big organisations and related top-down
hierarchical employer/workforce relationships.
39
Regional Economic Propects: East of England Profile, Cambridge Econometrics
40
Harvard Business Review, Financial Times, November 2001
Driver development and analysis
Shorter product and service lifecycles as well as more
flexible workforce and manufacturing processes are
required to encourage higher turnover and cope with
demands of variety and just in time delivery across a
range of sectors and markets.39
Employees are seen as partners in enterprise,
especially those who have specialists skills and can
change employer more easily. One view is that
management's role is therefore changing to one of
facilitator/trainer rather than controller/supervisor in
many areas.40
Companies no longer rely on hierarchy and command as
prime sources of direction and control. They have responded
to turbulence and fluctuations in demand by empowering
employees, establishing cross-functional teams and
taskforces, outsourcing non-core functions and focusing on
processes rather than product lines.40
Driver development and analysis Page 27

2.8 Drivers analysis and prioritisation

The drivers assembled through the initial research were Entrepreneurship and enterprise
presented at two stakeholder workshops. The purpose of Gaps in the skills base
the workshops was to determine which drivers people felt
Growing importance of the service and knowledge
would have the biggest impact (whether positive or
sector
negative) on the regions economic development over the
next 15-20 years. Workshop participants were asked to rate Importance of knowledge specialists
each driver for its relative importance. Surface transport infrastructure and connectivity

Network society and hi speed data connections

Over the two workshops a fair degree of consensus was
reached about those drivers deemed to be most important in
determining the future economic development of the region.
To these were added a small number of additional drivers
which seemed to be highly contentious in the discussions
and were therefore felt to be highly uncertain in terms of
their outcome or impact. The final set of prioritised drivers,
in no particular order, is listed to the right:
Gateways to the sea and Gateways to the sky
Globalisation of labour and Globalisation of trade
Importance of flexible businesses
R&D base
Business composition and life cycle
Relationship with London

Polarised region and Polarised society

Building Homes not houses

Quality of life (including built and natural environment)

Environmental technologies

Regional leadership
3 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING
3.1 Scenario axes
The priority drivers were assessed in terms of their relative
impact on the other short listed drivers. This dependency
analysis identified:
Those drivers that are dominant and therefore have a
major impact in terms of affecting change;
Those drivers that are dependent and therefore are
relatively uncertain in their impact, as they tend to
follow change.
The drivers that are both relatively dominant/important and
also relatively dependent/uncertain give greatest scope for
creating divergent possible futures. The dependency
matrix resulting from this analysis is shown Figure 1:
Figure 1
The drivers that emerged from this analysis as being both
relatively dominant and relatively dependent (those in the
top right quadrant, shaded in the above table) were then
clustered and synthesised to generate two axes or
dimensions to create a framework on which the scenarios
could be developed. The two axes that developed were
based on the key clusters of linked issues that emerged
from this process:
Relative pace and quality of infrastructure development,
picking up issues relating to the development of
international gateways, high speed data connections,
and the relative connectivity of the region, both internally
and with other parts of the UK and international
markets. The poles of this axis were labelled as
minimal growth of infrastructure, representing a state
where only current or planned infrastructure
developments were completed, with little or no major
improvements to road and rail networks, and
development constrained to existing Brownfield land,
with minor improvements to international gateways; and
rapid growth in infrastructure a state where the focus
of national transport policy had shifted in emphasis and
major improvements to both international gateways,
road and rail networks were in place, with implications
for use of some green-belt land.
The relative balance of the regions economic focus,
picking up issues around development of new
technologies, the R&D base, pace and detail of
globalisation, skills development, rise of the knowledge
economy and changing nature of manufacturing and
associated skills, workforce and cultural issues. One
end of this axis was labelled exporting ideas with the
primary focus and expertise in the region being in new
research, ideas and knowledge generation in the region,
without necessarily leading to indigenous business
growth, with goods and services based on these ideas
tending to be made elsewhere. The opposite extreme of
this axis was labelled building businesses intended to
represent a state where the regions economic focus was
more based in building businesses and adding value
through innovations in business processes and high
management skills, and not necessarily so dependent on
new product or service ideas.
Based on these two axes, short scenarios or potential
futures were developed for each of the four possibilities
using combinations of the extremes of each scenario axis
(see figure 2). It was recognised that parts of each of these
scenarios could play out at different times in different parts
of the region. The real future probably lies in some
combination of these wide ranging possibilities.
Scenario development and testing Page 29

Figure 2 Rapid Growth

in Infrastructure

Scenario 1: Scenario 2;
Rapid growth in infrastructure; Rapid growth in infrastructure;
Building businesses Exporting ideas

Building Exporting
businesses ideas

Scenario 3: Scenario 4;
Minimal growth in Minimal growth in
infrastructure; infrastructure;
Building businesses Exporting Ideas

Minimal growth
in infrastructure

3.2 Using scenarios

There is always a temptation to regard scenarios as a set

of discrete, mutually exclusive, future options from which
an organisation can choose its destiny. This is rarely the
case. In an area such as regional economic development it
is clear that each of the scenarios represents a future that
can co-exist with others, perhaps with different scenarios
occurring in different parts of the region or playing out at
different times across the region. In addition, there are
forces outside the regions control which will impact on the
future and which may drive it away from its desired future.

An initial set of draft scenarios was developed and

presented at the first of two stakeholder workshops.
The purpose of the first workshop was very much to test
and further develop the draft scenarios. The scenarios
were refined, following the first workshop. Summaries of
the final scenarios are provided in section 3.3 and the final
versions of the full narrative for each scenario are provided
in Appendix 5.2. It should be noted that the names given to
the scenarios are just designed to help people remember
them. Use of shorthand names is referenced in the
scenarios literature as being essential if the scenarios are
to become part of a live strategic conversation between an
organisation and its internal and external stakeholders.
Page 30
3.3 Scenario transcripts - summary
Who wants to be a millionaire? - Rapid growth in infrastructure, building businesses
This scenario had attractions in terms of maximising
economic growth, promoting a new coherent regional
identity, bringing new jobs and higher salaries, and also
higher aspirations to the region, along with the potential
for new opportunities in coastal communities. However, it
had a number of negative consequences in terms of social
and environmental sustainability, There was debate for
example about whether such high and rapid growth would
increase social polarisation between the haves and the
have-nots in society, or whether this wealth creation
would in fact provide opportunities for social inclusion.
There was however consensus that this scenario could
increase the potential development of green field sites for
business, social and transport infrastructure, and loss of
affordable housing and associated community in rural
areas. It appeared that the key preconditions for this
scenario to be achieved and seen in a positive light by the
region were a strong sense of regional identity and
Going for Gold - Rapid growth in infrastructure, exporting ideas
This was a scenario which had major advantages in terms
of reinforcing the regions reputation as an international
centre for innovation and knowledge, and increasing the
growth around its international gateways. Some felt this
scenario would lead to a two tier labour market, with
knowledge workers thriving but, with globalisation meaning
that products would be designed here, built elsewhere, a
lack of suitable jobs for many in the region. Major
polarisation in society could result if the R&D base did not
lead to spin off manufacturing and engineering activity,
particularly for those in the south and west of the region.
Although some areas in the north of the region may remain
relatively unspoilt and retain potential for tourism, relative
rural isolation was thought likely to increase under this
scenario. Equally inhabitants of major urban conurbations
may not benefit, with house prices likely to spiral, as they
became little more than dormitory towns for the knowledge
workers and London commuters. Major polarisation would
result from this, both between and within local
Scenario development and testing
leadership, a new focus for national policy (especially in
relation to transport) and a rigorous and proactive future
planning framework, determining which areas of the region
would be used for residential development, which for
business developments and where future transport
infrastructure would be located. The growth, and expansion
of the commuter belt across the region was also raised in
this scenario. Other issues included the potential pressure
on public services and the fact that this scenario relied on
a healthy global economy and the retention of continued
foreign investment in the region. The scenario presented
the biggest change for the region, presenting the greatest
challenges, but also potentially the greatest opportunities
in terms of regional economic development.
communities. It could lead to an extremely undesirable two
tier labour and housing market whereby knowledge
workers, the majority of them arriving from outside the
region, thrived and bought good quality housing, leaving
the low skilled priced out of the housing market and with
little option but to find work in low-level service sector
professions. There may be little to keep young people in the
region in this scenario. There were split views on how
desirable and sustainable the scenario was, with differing
views in differing parts of the region. Some did not feel the
economic growth would benefit the majority of the
indigenous population of the region, and growth would be
vulnerable to changes in the global market and
competition from other regions. Others felt the prospect of
business and universities working together represented the
best way forward, building on the regions unique selling
point (USP), but all recognised that to succeed the regions
knowledge would need to be top of the class, as there
would be no prizes for coming second.
Scenario development and testing
The Crystal Maze - Minimal growth in infrastructure, building businesses
This was seen by many as a slower growth scenario than
others, and for many a scenario which reflected the current
status quo in some parts of the region, with no really big
business, and rising congestion remaining key factors. For
many people, many of the existing problems in the region
would remain unresolved in this future which a number
described as a do nothing scenario. Some felt it was not a
desirable end state but perhaps a more sustainable and
achievable staging post on the way to reaping benefits in
a more attractive alternative over the longer term, due to
the investments made in skills leading to new indigenous
business growth. Regional identity was weaker in this
scenario with external perceptions of the region, both
nationally and internationally, unchanged. The north of the
region and rural and coastal communities would remain
isolated in terms of travel and young people would move
away, but they would increasingly become attractive homes
and second offices (facilitated by ICT), for small creative
businesses. The quality of the environment was largely
retained, with potential benefits for tourism, but questions
University Challenge - Minimal growth in infrastructure, exporting ideas
This scenario was considered by many to be the closest to
the current status quo. Some felt it to be the closest to the
basic planning assumptions made when developing the
current strategy for the region. It was also considered by
most to be the best in terms of preserving the natural
beauty of the landscape and environment in the region. It is
therefore somewhat surprising that it was considered by
the majority of stakeholders to be the least attractive of any
of the four scenarios for the region as a whole. Strengths
were seen in the growth of new universities, or the merger
of/collaboration between existing ones, to create more
regional centres of excellence. However, the relative lack of
new business growth and focus on a few higher
educational establishments caused many to raise issues
concerning the lack of local skills and entrepreneurial
talent in the region, as well as stressing the importance of
improving local road and rail infrastructure. There was
thought to be a high quality of life for those in the region
who could afford it under this scenario, but this was by no
means extended to all, with major shortages of well paid
jobs, affordable housing and social infrastructure in key
Page 31
remained about where jobs would come from without a
major influx of new entrepreneurial talent and improved
transport and social infrastructure in the region. Without
these improvements in road and rail networks, and greater
provision of health, education and affordable housing in
many areas, economic stagnation and the outward
migration of young people were seen as major risks.
Growth was felt to be limited to tourism and leisure
opportunities in the north east of the region (which many
thought would effectively become a playground for the rest
of the region), some creative micro businesses succeeding
in less populated areas of the region, and new employment
related to current plans for airport and port expansion.
However, there were question marks about employment
opportunities in the main urban areas. Despite claims of
lower polarisation there were concerns that the region
could go backwards and simply become a thoroughfare and
commuter belt for the main population centres to its south
and west.
areas. In many ways it was thought this would represent a
future in which the region would be attempting to live on
landscape tourism and university spin offs alone, perhaps
with the gradual introduction of a few new lifestyle
businesses established by those migrating from London
and elsewhere.
It must be emphasised that the scenarios that emerged
from this process do not represent the policy views of
either The Henley Centre or EEDA. Nor do they represent
mutually exclusive alternative choices or opposing visions
that the region could adopt. They are simply intended to be
a series of divergent but plausible possible views about
how the future might play out in the East of England in the
period to 2020.
4 STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT AND
ACTION PLANNING

4.1 Risk and opportunities

In the final scenario development workshop, which took The outcome of these discussions are summarised in the
place in December 2003, stakeholders were asked for their table below.
initial views on the risks and opportunities for the region
under each of the scenarios.

Table 1: Risks and opportunities framework

Who wants to be a millionaire? - Rapid growth in infrastructure. Building Businesses

Risks: Opportunities:

Disruption caused by pace of change Regional Planning Guidance (RPG) 14 provides

Hard to achieve in timescale opportunity for clear firm proactive planning
Need for regional focus, blocked by local infighting and framework
parochialism Builds on current position internationally and
Unlikely without changes in national policy and funding geographically

Environmental degradation Creates a can do philosophy and raises aspirations

Asset stripping of rural areas Integrated transport solutions

Market doesnt respond to new levels of skills and Could lead to stronger regional identity and recognition
infrastructure common vision and brand

Loss of regional USP/quality of life Wealth creation

Polarisation Sustainable industries

Lack of social and cultural infrastructure Growth could help to facilitate social inclusion

Overloading of public services

Loss of local autonomy

Going for Gold - Rapid growth in infrastructure. Exporting ideas

Risks: Opportunities:

Highly competitive scenario, vulnerable to external International Gateways

market forces and reliant on continued inward Collaboration between Universities and business
investment R&D spin offs
Extreme polarisation and two tier labour market Builds on regional brand and USP
Some spatial areas not benefiting from change (non Infrastructure development
R&D areas have too far to go to catch up) Unlocks indigenous talent
Environmental damage Proximity to London
Designed here built elsewhere Builds on locational advantages
Infrastructure makes region a thoroughfare Possible location for institute of product development,
Lack of core business and management skills between ideas and production for mass markets
Lack of entrepreneurs
Isolation and gentrification of rural areas
Loss of young people
Strategy development and action planning Page 33

The Crystal Maze - Minimal growth in infrastructure. Building Businesses

Risks: Opportunities:

Lack of growth or stagnation in GDP Strong environmental benefits

Rise in unemployment Tourism
Overheating and congestion in and around key Creative industries
urban areas Up-skilling and investing in people
Could create new tranches of economically inactive, Local autonomy and specialisms
particularly in rural areas and among the elderly SME growth / clusters
Lack of regional identity and USP Sustainable businesses
Poor quality of social and business infrastructure Automotive industry including Formula One
Unsustainable without transport infrastructure
Ageing population / workforce

University Challenge - Minimal growth in infrastructure. Exporting ideas

Risks: Opportunities:

Possible brain drain Quality of life and the natural environment

Lack of infrastructure reduces comparative advantage Universities merging and collaborating for mutual
Big employers move away benefit
Loss of distribution and manufacturing International gateways
Lack of skills Tourism
Higher unemployment Lifestyle businesses
Lack of sub-regional identity for many Continued strength of knowledge and ideas
Rural isolation increases Cambridge brand
Loss of young people

4.2 Strategic imperatives and preferences

From the discussion of the individual risks and

opportunities contained in each of the scenarios,
a number of strategic risks or imperatives and strategic
opportunities or preferences were identified.

Strategic imperatives: Strategic preferences:

reduce polarisation and raising aspirations
attract and retain young people, talent and skills
improve ICT infrastructure and skills
improve the regions skills base
improve transport infrastructure
increase house and related social infrastructure
identify, develop and promote key sectors
develop and exploit the regions R&D and knowledge
develop the regions tourism and leisure offer
build and enhance the regions global reputation
Page 34
More details on those imperatives and preferences that
emerged are set out below.
Reducing polarisation and raising aspirations
This was seen as a key objective, as polarisation was
viewed as increasing in all of the scenarios, albeit in
slightly different ways in each. Different views were
expressed as to whether the regional economic strategy
should focus on encouraging economic entrepreneurship
alone, as some felt that this would encourage social
cohesion. However, this idea that growth could itself
facilitate opportunities for social cohesion was contested by
many who felt that a more direct interventionist approach
would be required to address issues of social exclusion and
polarisation in parts of the region. Improving social
infrastructure and cultivating regional social capital were
seen as a crucial part of any economic strategy if it was not
to increase the polarisation of some parts of the region.
These were also crucial to improving the confidence of
those living in those communities, allowing them to
become less risk averse, raise their aspirations and
potentially increase the entrepreneurship shown in these
communities, and bring more economic activity into the
formal, rather than informal, economy.
Attracting and retaining young people, talent
and skills
The young (especially graduates) were seen as a crucial
group of people for the region to retain and develop. The
regions population is increasingly ageing, and some of the
scenarios suggested larger numbers of skilled young
people leaving, rather than staying, in the region. This was
seen as a particular issue for the north and east of the
region, where rural and coastal areas were increasingly
being viewed as retirement communities with pockets of
deprivation which were almost no-go zones for young
talent. The high cost of housing, lack of large cities and
lack of large employers offering potentially exciting career
opportunities in the region was seen as a limiting factor.
The need for a University in Suffolk was also mentioned in
the scenario development sessions. There was also a
question mark about whether the region was sufficiently
attractive for young entrepreneurs, who may have a
different interpretation of quality of life from that presented
by much of the region, which lacked any real core cities.
One or two participants suggested the region was too
boring to attract these potential entrepreneurs.
Improving ICT infrastructure and skills
Most people felt that plans to address current issues
relating to broadband access would be resolved over the
long term, but should remain a priority for the region until
Strategy development and action planning
they were. This was especially important for rural areas,
where ICT could create new opportunities, although some
felt ICT provision would inevitably always be better in urban
areas. Others were slightly nervous about the region
remaining reliant on central provision of ICT. All recognised
the region would face new ICT problems in the future as
the level and type of communications evolved over time,
and felt therefore that more of a focus should be given to
ICT skills, given that the new economy was likely to dictate
that these would be required for almost all types of future
employment. Skills and infrastructure should be developed
in parallel in order to be effective. A view was also
expressed that advances in ICT could potentially help to
recreate a sense of community in rural areas.
Improving the regions skills base
This was a priority that was mentioned throughout the
discussions, given the nature of the importance of human
capital in the future economy. Particular gaps that needed
to be addressed were IT skills, core business management
skills and high level technical skills. Shortages of key
workers were also mentioned (plumbers, construction
workers etc), in relation to a number of the scenarios.
The lack of entrepreneurs was also an issue, linked to the
aspirations of people in the region. This lack of aspiration
was seen as a key blocker on the development of new
skills. There was also a particular skills issue in relation to
the ageing population in parts of the region, who were felt
by some participants to be less able or willing to reskill or
be retrained.
Improving transport infrastructure
The development of improved transport and ICT
infrastructure was identified as a key uncertainty and used
as an axis for scenario development. The views expressed
in the workshop emphasised the importance of improving
transport links within and between parts of the region, and
between the region and the rest of Europe and the global
economy. The Government White Paper announcement of
the planned new runway at Stansted and expansion plans
for Luton airport was also welcomed by most of those
participating in the workshops, as this was seen as a
crucial precondition if the region was to make the most of
its knowledge base and geographical position as a gateway
to Europe. It was also felt that a number of small
improvements to road and rail networks, particularly
eastwest connections, would be beneficial over the longer
term, focussing on improving the internal connectivity in
the region, and external connectivity of the region to other
parts of the UK.
Strategy development and action planning
New innovative, and environmentally sustainable solutions
to local community transport issues were also required,
particularly in and around the key towns and cities and in
isolated parts of the north and east of the region, if the
natural beauty of the regions environment was to be
maintained against the likely increase in population and
related commuting patterns. Public/private partnerships
were suggested as an approach to this issue. Others felt
the creation of a new dedicated transport corridor in the
region would be an alternative approach, made possible
through the new spatial strategy perhaps. However, it is
also important to note that a significant number of people,
while acknowledging the sub-optimal state of regional
infrastructure, still felt that the region could do a lot
without major large-scale improvements. Others felt that
without these improvements the region would continue to
be a thoroughfare for through traffic. The potential for
developing new economic growth hubs around expanded
gateways and also improving the regions tourism offer
were mentioned as important.
Increasing housing and related social
infrastructure
Under each of the scenarios, London was seen as a
significant influence. One important result of this, and a
number of other factors, was an expectation that the
population of the region would significantly increase and
pressures for affordable housing and related infrastructure
in and around key urban areas would rise as a result. In
certain scenarios the need for new forms of affordable
housing and associated services in rural areas would also
increase. Housing was seen as the main priority but this in
turn would increase the need to improve the spatial
distribution and provision of related social infrastructure
(schools, local transport, health services etc). Overall there
was a view that the region was unwise to rely on central
government investment in this area and new forms of
innovative partnership between public, private and
voluntary sector would be required. The need to get the
right things in the right places was a key theme, with RPG
14 giving the region a real opportunity to do this for the
first time, linking houses with jobs and transport
infrastructure.
Identifying and promoting key sectors
Many people felt that the region was well placed to take
advantage of opportunities emerging in a number of key
sectors. However, it was noted that other regions and
countries would also be looking to take these
opportunities, and therefore the time window for
opportunity was short. One such example highlighted in the
scenario development sessions was environmental and
energy technologies, with the extended possibility of
Page 35
creating hubs and clusters of new sustainable businesses.
It was felt that the region had a great opportunity to build
on existing strengths to make the most of its existing
natural resources, improving resource productivity within
the region and become a global leader in this area.
However, the region would have to move fast to take the
opportunity or it would risk not only losing out on the
comparative advantage many felt it currently had, but also
become a net importer of these technologies from
elsewhere.
Other areas mentioned as a strength and offering future
potential for growth included plant and biosciences,
biotechnology, and a more general move to creating
sustainable housing, transport solutions and other
infrastructure in the region, in an attempt to make the
region the green capital of Europe. This tied in with a
number of related thoughts about the quality of life
available in the region being one of its USPs. In all areas,
the discussion emphasised the need for the region to take
action fast (today not tomorrow) to exploit the potential in
these areas, or others would step into the breach and the
region would lose out.
Developing and exploiting the regions
knowledge base
It was felt the region had a number of high profile R&D
headquarters and research establishments, but should
look to build further strength in this area as well as trying
to further exploit its current knowledge and research base.
It was also felt more work was needed to ensure regional
decision makers fully understood the motives of current
establishments located in the region to ensure they would
remain in the future. There seemed to be three strands to
this objective ensuring current research establishments
and investments stayed in the region; promoting greater
collaboration between (public and private sector) research
establishments, universities and business in order to
facilitate new indigenous business growth; and trying to
attract more research establishments to the region to
add further strength and stability to the regions
knowledge pool.
Developing the regions tourism and
leisure offer
This was seen as a growth sector across the whole of the
UK economy, resulting from shifting consumer trends, a
more affluent society, and a resultant increase in the
number of different choices and tastes for leisure and
tourist activities. It was felt more should be made of the
existing heritage and cultural assets in the region, not just
to attract more tourists but also for the positive impact this
had in terms of emphasising the benefits of the region to
Page 36
potential residents, investors and entrepreneurs. Some felt
efforts should also be made to extend the seasons in the
region, by building up a whole calendar year of events,
festivals, attractions etc. However, there was also some
recognition of the need to improve the shape of the regions
tourism offer and create a new modern offer that would
appeal to a different, younger demographic looking for
different experiences. This was not only seen as important
as a growth sector but also because it went hand in hand
with maintaining and improving the natural environment,
cultural assets and overall quality of life in the region,
which in turn had a positive affect on current residents, in
terms of retaining them and raising their aspirations.
Building and enhancing the regions global
reputation
It was felt by many that the region was not good at selling
itself, or promoting the many strengths and assets it had.
For some the region was too self satisfied. Some felt this
was a question of packaging and marketing the regions
current assets more as an international brand. However,
there was some opposition to the creation of a false
identity. This was linked to a weak sense of regional
identity in the region and low recognition among residents
of what region they live in.
There was a greater degree of support for the idea of
establishing a greater national profile for the region,
backed by improved regional leadership to enable the
region to punch its weight among the other English regions
in terms of investment from and influence on national
government. Many felt that the current government did not
recognise the value of the region to the UK economy, or the
threats it faced from global competition.
There was significant support for the view that identity
should be built on the basis of sub-regional strengths, but
promoted at a regional level. Some fears were expressed
that this approach might lead to the promotion of a
distinctly average region. It was felt that the regions USP
on a European and global scale was its technical skills,
knowledge and services. A culture of being outward
looking was seen as just as important as brand and
reputation.
Strategy development and action planning
Other points made in discussion
Other concerns and risks worth noting from the workshop
discussions included the lack of public sector resources
available to the region, the lack of levers available to the
region, and the feeling that the region would not act quickly
enough to take the decisive action required to exploit
potential opportunities. There was also some concern that
the region did not have a USP that it could push in the
global market, other than Cambridge University. The lack
of entrepreneurs and business managers was a key issue
throughout, and mentioned under many of the headings
above. Some felt this re-emphasised the need for the
region to come together to punch its weight at national and
international level, while others felt this reinforced the
need, at this point, to take the possible opportunity to make
the region the green/environmental technology capital of
Europe, a role model for truly sustainable communities.
Others felt the regions quality of life was the USP and this,
above all else, should not be lost in the strategy.
4.3 Developing the regional economic strategy
Building on the work emerging from the scenario planning
process, EEDA produced a consultation document on the
high level issues facing the region at the end of January.
This document was entitled Sharing the challenge playing
your part in reviewing the regional economic strategy.
The consultation document set out a draft vision, set of
strategic goals and underpinning priorities and asked for
views on their relevance and appropriateness for the region.
Table 2 sets out the relationship between the imperatives
and opportunities identified in the scenario planning
workshops and how these were translated into specific
goals for the sharing the challenge document.
Strategy development and action planning Page 37

Table 2: Imperatives, preferences and goals

Imperatives and preferences Goals identified in sharing the challenge document

Reducing polarisation and raising Significantly seduce deprivation in disadvantaged communities and neighbourhoods
aspirations

Improving transport infrastructure Ensure the region benefits from the development of international gateways, national
and regional transport corridors

Increasing the provision of housing and Grow sustainable communities in the regions Growth Areas that make a major
related social infrastructure economic and social contribution to regional success

This imperative is also linked to the goal - Enhance the regions qualities as an
attractive place to live, work and visit

Improving the regions skills base Develop the regions skills base necessary to deliver economic, social and
environmental opportunities

Improving ICT infrastructure and skills Achieve accessible high-speed data connections infrastructure with increasing levels
of take up and usage

Retaining and attracting young people This is reflected in several goals:

Develop the regions skills base necessary to deliver on economic, social and
environmental opportunities

Enhance the regions qualities as an attractive place to live work and visit

Reduce deprivation in the disadvantaged communities and neighbourhoods

Developing and exploiting the regions Enhance the regions role as a global leader for science and technology research
knowledge and R&D base and development

Identifying, developing and promoting key This is closely linked to

sectors
Build a strong entrepreneurial culture with growth in both the quantity and
productivity of business and enterprise across the region

There are also links to

Develop the role of the East of England in the national and global economy

Enhance the East of Englands role as a global leader for science and technology
research and development

Energy and environmental technologies covered under:

Develop the opportunities for the sustainable management of the regions

environmental and energy assets

Developing the regions tourism and Enhance the regions qualities as an attractive place to live, work and visit
leisure offer

Building and developing the regions global Develop the role of the East of England in the national and global economy
reputation
 Strategy development and action planning

The sharing the challenge document played a central role
in three action planning workshops in February, acting as
the backdrop for discussion. Workshop participants were
asked to test the draft vision, goals and priorities identified
in the document before identifying key underpinning
actions for inclusion in the final strategy document.
The following summarises the key discussion points from
the workshops.
The vision
The sharing the challenge consultation document
suggested that the existing vision, as stated in the existing
regional economic strategy should remain. This was:
To make the East of England a world class economy,
renowned for its knowledge base, the creativity and
enterprise of its people and the quality of life of all who live
and work here.
In discussion a number of points were made. In particular
it was felt that the vision needed to be updated and
refreshed to reflect the learning from the earlier scenario
workshops. For example;
a number of people felt that the current vision placed
too much emphasis on the knowledge base of the
region at the expense of the emphasis on building
businesses that had emerged from the workshops
some felt that the vision was not sufficiently specific to
the region, and did not recognise the diversity of the
region
others felt that the quality of life in the region, and the
need to preserve this as a valuable asset in the future
should be emphasised more in the vision
some felt that the vision should say more about how
the regions aspirations would be delivered although
others felt this was the purpose of the underpinning
strategic goals and actions
a number of people also felt the vision was too long.

During the workshops, participants were asked to assess

whether this captured the essence of the learning from the Draft goals
scenario discussion and in particular the desired vision that
seem to be supported from the scenario development
The sharing the challenge high level issues document set
workshops during the earlier phase, which emphasised a
out a suggested set of ten strategic goals, loosely grouped
future focus on a position in the scenario thinking space
together within four pillars. A summary of the key points
defined by a little more infrastructure and a greater
made in discussion is set out below, beginning with general
emphasis on building businesses rather than exporting
comments on the goals and then moving on to discuss the
ideas, as set out in figure 2.
specific thrust and underpinning actions of each of the
draft strategic goals.

Figure 2: Vision from scenario workshops

Rapid growth
in infrastructure

Building Exporting
businesses ideas

Minimal growth
in infrastructure
Strategy development and action planning
General comments
There was a fair degree of consensus about the general
thrust and direction of the high level issues document and
strategic goals contained within the sharing the challenge
document.
A number of people stated that there were too many
strategic goals in the document, reflecting a perception
that no choices had been made and a general lack of
prioritisation within the strategy. This was felt to be
particularly important given the relatively scarce amount of
resource available to public sector bodies in the region,
particularly EEDA, to assist in the delivery of the strategy.
A number of people felt that the strategy should distinguish
between those things that the region could do for itself,
and those things that it could only influence through
effective lobbying of others such as national government.
Other comments which were common across the
workshops included the need for the strategy to focus on
issues that were specific to the region, whilst also not
ignoring those issues which are common to all regions. In
a similar vein, a number of people felt that the document
did not sufficiently reflect the diversity of the region and the
sub-regional issues that had emerged from earlier
discussion of the scenarios; there would be different
priorities in different parts of the region.
Page 39
In terms of suggested omissions from the document, a
number of people suggested that there may be some value
in more explicit mention of demographic change as an
issue that needed to be further analysed and addressed as
a priority. This included issues relating to the regions
proximity to London, the location of Growth Areas in the
region, the need to attract and retain a higher proportion of
skilled young people, and related issues around the ageing
population in some parts of the region.
Other comments suggested that the document:
should do more in terms of looking at ways to draw
funding into the region
should look at things more from an economic
development point of view, thereby enabling choices to
be based on the benefit of carrying out the proposed
actions
a number of people also said that they found the pillars
under which the goals had been grouped in the
document unhelpful, as they were felt to be an artificial
division that drew attention away from the choices
about strategic priorities that should be the focal point
of the strategy.

GOAL: Develop the regions skills base necessary to deliver on economic, social and
environmental opportunities
General comments
A number of people felt that more explicit mention should be
made of the need to increase aspirations among the regions
population, and promote a learning culture across the region.
Without improvement in skills and culture a number of the
other strategic goals would not be delivered. There was also a
suggestion that the goal needed to focus specifically on
improving and retaining the skills of young people in the region.
There was also some debate about whether the focus of the
skills base should be to deliver on social, environmental and
economic opportunities or whether it should be more about
matching skills provision more explicitly to the needs of
employers and the region as a whole. There was also
discussion about how far this objective could be achieved
by regional action alone. Some national policies and
frameworks were seen as obstacles to delivery because
national targets and policies did not always necessarily reflect
the need for flexibility to reflect regional priorities.
The majority of participants in the first two workshops felt that
ICT skills should be added to this goal, rather than included as
a separate goal in its own right. It was also felt that the goal
should reflect the fact that the skills base was an issue for all
employers, whether they are in the private public or voluntary
sector.
Priorities and actions
The three workshops proposed a series of underpinning
priorities and actions to deliver this goal, reflecting their
general views on the importance of this goal. These included:
continue to support the priorities identified within the
Framework for Regional Employment and Skills Action
(FRESA), once the current review has been completed, but
focussing on those with key economic implications
build aspirations & expectations amongst employers and
individuals
make current learning support structures more effective
maintain an understanding of changes in the regional
economy & likely impact on skills needs, and emphasise
the need for greater partnership between skills providers
and all employers to deliver the skills that they need
improve links with programmes to tackle deprivation
shift the focus from those registered as unemployed to
attracting economically inactive groups (eg. women,
ethic minorities, people with disabilities) back
into the workforce
take into account the skills needs of not-for-profit/voluntary
and community organisations
Strategy development and action planning
focus more on raising the skills of those currently in
business or full time employment, eg. by promoting the use
of continuing professional development plans by
employees, or by targeting literacy and numeracy training
on those in work
change the way that vocational qualifications are valued vis
a vis academic qualifications, eg. greater business
involvement in schools to promote vocational routes/trades
build regional skills partnerships and sector skills plans
improve basic skills particularly for business and those
needed for life in general, eg. by introducing union learning
reps
lobby for skills targets and frameworks that reflect regional
needs more than national ideas
develop environmental skills to mitigate environmental
inputs and promote resource efficiency
emphasise skills that benefit learners in their own
community matching skills & needs locally
encourage provision of skills to remote areas/deprived
communities through distance learning
enable the transfer of knowledge development between
higher education and businesses to build growth
build the kind of skills & expertise to deliver renaissance
and regeneration, including skills in community
engagement.
The key priorities emerging across the workshops seemed to
be related to establishing the skills requirements, both now
and in the future, that local employers had or would have and
work more closely in partnership with employers to ensure that
their needs were met. A number of key skills shortages were
identified, particularly in relation to basic adult skills. There
seemed to be a clear view that more training needed to be
done to provide vocational skills as well as developing
programmes aimed at upskilling those who were in
employment. There was also a need to include business skills
more in the education system, including potential initiatives
aimed at partnering businesses with schools. There was also a
clear view that there should be a vocal lobby of national
government on this issue, with a view to increasing local and
regional autonomy of the skills agenda.
A number of people felt that the FRESA was the key framework
for taking much of this action forward, but that the regional
economic strategy should give greater emphasis to those
priorities and actions with distinct economic implications.
Strategy development and action planning
GOAL: Build a strong entrepreneurial culture with growth in both the quantity and productivity of
business and enterprise across the region
General comments
A number of participants felt that this goal was too heavily
weighted to business start ups, rather than focussing more
on retention and growth of existing businesses, which was
seen as a key issue for the region. There was also a need
to focus on retaining existing inward investment in the
region as well as the region looking to grow its own.
In addition to building a strong entrepreneurial culture it
was also felt that this objective should give more emphasis
to the development of the business infrastructure,
including development of the physical environment to
support business growth (eg. through the provision of
business premises and flexible use of the planning system)
and advice and other support from business support
agencies.
It was also felt the development of key sectors and clusters
deserved more emphasis as did the wider need for
entrepreneurs in all parts of the region, including the
public and voluntary sector.
Priorities and actions
Reflecting the importance attached to this goal through the
workshop discussions, a number of specific priorities and
actions were proposed, as follows.
facilitate access to high quality business advice and
support, by building a more coherent and effective
business support infrastructure and build awareness
of it among small businesses in the region
work with government and agencies to reduce overlap
in support structures, for example by rationalise
network of business support to make it more business
friendly, delivering to their needs
work with public and private sector to improve business
development and exchange of experience eg. by
creating forums for businesses to network
develop a clear cluster development strategy
grow social enterprise initiatives and encourage
entrepreneurship in under-represented communities
support and develop educational innovation around
entrepreneurship in schools and universities, including
mentoring programmes and changes to the university
curriculum to focus more on business/commerce
ensure supply of business premises to better meet
specific regional needs
ensure supply of appropriately skilled workers
Page 41
identify and remove barriers to business start up and
growth (eg. red tape)
increase partnerships between academic
organisations, private and public sector with the
public sector performing a brokerage role
recognise and cherish the contribution made by
services in the regional economy.
A number of suggestions here repeated those made
elsewhere in relation to gaps in the skills base and the
need to focus more education on business skills from a
younger age in schools and also universities. However
there was also a good deal of support for actions aimed at
improving the quality and provision of business support
activities in the region and rationalising some of the
delivery of these functions. There was also consistent
mention of the need for improved provision of business
premises across the region, and need to create new
forums or networks between businesses to exchange ideas
and experiences.
Other suggestions included the need for a clear cluster
development strategy in the region and wider promotion of
initiatives aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship in
deprived areas of the region and those in under-
represented communities, such as those related to
improving regional social capital and social enterprises
Looking ahead it is also worth noting that the great
majority of these actions were thought to be the
responsibility of EEDA, in many cases brokering a
partnership approach in collaboration with business
support providers.
There was also some discussion around the issue of
reducing bureaucracy and red tape. Whilst recognising that
businesses would also want to simplify regulation and
bureaucracy, some felt that there needed to be an
appropriate amount of regulation in place, both to preserve
the basics for the workforce such as health and safety. It
was also mentioned that there is a body of evidence to
suggest that early adopters of new regulations can steal a
march on their competitors, using it a source of innovation
and competitive advantage.
 Strategy development and action planning

GOAL: Enhance the regions role as a global leader for science and technology research and development

General comments

There were differing views about this goal across the three encourage chicks to fly the nest finance to
workshops. One workshop considered it to be less of a encourage independence
priority for the region. Others felt that although this was encourage high value/prototype manufacturing
important the focus should be less on the global reputation
take proactive action to retain R&D in region and
for leading edge science and technology, and more about
encourage big companies to place research projects
exploiting the regions knowledge and science base to build
within the region (policy needs to think beyond
businesses and transfer the benefits to the wider economy
EEDAs borders)
of the region. This reflected the learning from the earlier
raise business aspirations
scenario discussions.
use regions star corporate performers
Although there was a strong feeling that the region was not take skills needs of voluntary organisations
currently getting the most from its science and technology into account.
research and development base, most agreed it was a
strength that the region should build on, and one of the few
A strong theme running through many of these actions was
things that the region had an international reputation for,
the need to promote more exchange and partnership
making it part of the regions USP that distinguished it
between business, commerce, academia and R&D
from other parts of the country.
providers, with the public sector playing a facilitation and
brokerage role. This included the need to promote a
There was also some discussion about the concept of
business element in secondary and higher education to
wider innovation and the opportunities created when
promote entrepreneurship and business skills alongside
mature industries move up the value chain. Many felt that
the acquisition of R&D knowledge, and the provision of
innovation should be given greater emphasis in this goal,
enterprise hubs and incubator facilities. In this respect,
widening the concept beyond the narrow view of science
there was a strong link between this goal, and the previous
and technology.
goal on enterprise.

There was clearly also a strong feeling that more proactive

Priorities and actions effort was required to secure current levels of inward
investment in the region, as well as looking to attract new
Priorities and actions identified in the three workshops investors. This included moves to lobby national
were as follows: government to recognise the regions excellence in R&D
and its value to the national economy.
lobby to preserve our excellence in science
and research
increase partnerships between academics, public and
private sectors with the public sector to perform
brokerage function and create firm links between
Further Education (FE), Higher Education (HE) and
business, eg. place a firm business component in
degree courses
develop a framework, or forum to develop a policy for
greater dispersal of knowledge
develop a more joined up strategy to promote
innovation exchange, eg. by building business and R&D
networks and exchanges
improve/increase HE provision
agree and promote growth of Ipswich/Cambridge
corridor
create enterprise hubs, incubators for innovation and
high level business support
Strategy development and action planning Page 43

GOAL: Grow sustainable communities in the regions Growth Areas that make a major economic and social
contribution to regional success

General comments

This goal provoked a wide divergence of views among bring forward and protect employment sites and increase
workshop participants. Some felt that that the wording of the growth of mixed use developments
goal gave undue emphasis to the regions designated Growth increase number of demonstration projects and spread
Areas, at the expense of a wider definition of sustainable best practise across region
communities in the region, pointing out that this was the only
cut through administrative boundaries to make them
goal that had a distinct geographical element to it. Others felt
more appropriate to local needs
that the Growth Areas were the designated priorities for the
maximise economic and social effect of growth areas and
region and were concerned that a broader scope would result
actively managing their impact in the region as a whole
in insufficient focus on them. Some felt that the two issues
were being mixed into one strategic goal unnecessarily. support local needs delivery by local services
improve the tourism, heritage and cultural offer to meet
Others felt that environmental issues needed to be given demands of visitors and residents
greater emphasis within this goal, related to ensuring that make the most of tourism and leisure opportunities and
there was truly sustainable growth in the Growth Areas the quality of the built and natural environment
reflecting the need for sustainable construction, social
increase vitality and sustainability of rural areas.
infrastructure and improving quality of life in these areas
without damaging the environment.
A key priority identified was the provision of affordable,
sustainably constructed (something that many felt should be
Overall it was hard to reach agreement on whether the goal
applied to all new housing in the region) housing, particularly
should be broadened out to cover all parts of the region
for key workers in and around the Growth Areas, where the
(sustainable communities everywhere), merging in wider
provision of housing and related social infrastructure would
quality of life issues (an attractive place to live, work, visit) or
be crucial and should be supplemented by subsequent
kept as a separate goal. As the goal gets broader it tended to
development of cultural developments. There was a
become a bit of a catch all for everything, rather than
widespread consensus that the energy and wider
focussing on the regions approach to growth in the Growth
environmental impact of development of the Growth Areas
Areas and growth in the rest of the region.
should be minimised where possible. There was a similar
theme in relation to transport in these areas with a desire to
There was also recognition that the new RPG and related
promote local, sustainable transport solutions. Similarly
regional spatial strategy needed to be tied in with this goal,
some felt the local delivery of local services would be crucial
as they would set the spatial framework for the region.
in terms of minimising environmental impacts and promoting
long term economic and social sustainability. In more
Some found the term sustainable communities misleading
general terms the discussion showed a great deal of support
as this has become the term used by national government
for the need to manage the growth of these communities
for specific growth areas.
very carefully to ensure they make a positive impact on the
region, rather than simply becoming dormitories for the
South East and a drain on resources in the East of England.
Priorities and actions

reduce commuting get people to their jobs in a

sustainable manner
improve strategic transport infrastructure, through
integrated local transport design requiring careful
planning design and then delivery
encourage new business to grow in the region rather
than focussing on inward investment
attract new skills into area, and particularly address
skills shortages in the construction industry
ensure provision of appropriate and sustainable housing
harness development whilst minimising environmental
impact
 Strategy development and action planning

GOAL: Enhance the regions qualities as an attractive place to live, work and visit

General comments

There were mixed views on this goal. Some felt that proactively support and mentor young people in work at
although it was crucial to preserve, maintain and enhance the beginning of their careers and provide other
the quality of life in the region, this was something that opportunities for them to network and bring vitality to
would happen as a result of other things and therefore their lives, eg. by investing in sports facilities to retain
should be considered as part of the underpinning actions young people and improve opportunities for leisure
under other goals, rather than being a goal in itself. For improve HE offer in East of England to retain graduates
others there was a concern that quality of life would be
pursue a cohesive social and environmental strategy
ignored if it was not explicitly mentioned as a goal in its
which enables distinctiveness to be managed and
own right. A third view emerged suggesting that quality
developed, eg. by preserving the local qualities of the
of life would fit better within the vision for the region, as it
region to develop the overall qualities of the region and
was hard to identify precise actions to achieve the goal,
ensuring the regional economic strategy connects and
other than ensuring other actions took quality of life
complements with the published environmental
considerations into account. The slight majority view was
strategy
that this would sit better as part of the vision and
deliver FE courses to non-vocational careers to
something that other actions should be proofed against
enrich lives.
through the sustainability appraisal mechanism. Specific
social infrastructure issues could be covered under other
goals if a decision were taken to drop this goal The actions above seemed to confirm that it is hard to
define precise actions that are specific to this goal and not
If this was to stay as a goal a number of participants covered by the others. In particular there seemed to be a
thought the current goal to be too bland. In particular it good deal of support for the concept of sustainability
should focus more on the regions tourism, cultural and proofing the overall strategy and related actions and
heritage assets, and the need to attract and retain more projects, and preserve precious natural environmental
young people. Points were made about different people features and increase biodiversity by linking into the
defining their quality of life in different ways reflecting published environmental strategy.
the need for cultural diversity in a modern society and a
suggestion that the goal be refocused around the vitality of
the region and ability to retrain and attract key people.
Some also felt the goal needed to make a more explicit link
between the economic development justifications for the
importance of quality of life, linked to the region being an
attractive place to invest. Others felt this was a rather
narrow view of the concept and goal.

Priorities and actions

The key priorities and actions identified in the first two

workshops were as follows (the third workshop felt that
this goal could be covered by making sustainability proofing
more explicit as an action in relation to the other goals,
and moving social infrastructure issues to the goals related
to deprived communities and Growth Areas):

increase levels of biodiversity to develop character

and tourism
sustainability proofing: suggestions were made to proof
the strategy as a whole but also specifically to proof all
projects with a value of 50,000 before approval
Strategy development and action planning Page 45

GOAL: Significantly reduce deprivation in disadvantaged communities and neighbourhoods

General comments

A general theme of comments on this strategic goal was offer more support to vulnerable individuals during
that it did not give sufficient emphasis to the specifics of career development (eg. mentoring)
the region and particularly the fact that deprivation does re-invest wealth of region into deprived areas via jobs
not exist solely in the bottom 10 per cent of wards in the etc, focussing on attracting new businesses into
region because of the dispersed nature of deprivation in deprived wards, and championing businesses that have
the region. A number of people felt that more explicit been successful in deprived areas
mention should be made of the economic costs of
increase bridging & bonding social capital for
deprivation and discrimination in society, and the benefits
employment and social reasons, recognising the
of addressing them.
inter-relationship between the two
tackle dysfunctional families whilst still at school
Some felt that the regional economic strategy should more
explicitly emphasise the role of diversity as a stimuli to find a motivational/aspirational trigger to encourage
innovation and creativity, and the importance of raising people to want to acquire new skills, and encourage
levels of self esteem, confidence and basic life skills entrepreneurship in under-represented communities.
among certain communities.
There was a dichotomy of views about whether intervention
A number of connections and linkages were made between in deprived areas should focus on reducing disparities
discussions around this goal and those in relation to through improving education and health care, regional
Growth Areas, sustainable communities, skills and social capital and other initiatives (eg. mentoring) aimed at
entrepreneurial culture. Most felt this goal was more raising aspirations, or through more direct intervention to
about people than places given the circumstances give positive discrimination in terms of employment
of the region. opportunities, attracting new businesses and promoting
new business growth. Each workshop identified a mixed
approach to the issue, but all reflected both the economic
Priorities and actions and social benefits of promoting a proactive approach to
addressing discrimination. There was also an emphasis on
Priority actions identified in discussion were as follows: what works among the actions proposed, with one
workshop being very clear that what works in Luton wont
work in Norfolk representing a very clear statement about
support employees in widening participation,
the distinct nature of the communities and the problems
addressing issues of discrimination (related to
faced in different parts of the region.
disabilities and ethic minorities) and flexible working
arrangements to increase diversity of workforce
build the capacity of voluntary and community groups
to create social capital
use mainstream funding to mainstream successful
pilots
enable inter-agency working perhaps through cross
agency social capital fund or similar
have a significant target on reducing poverty
in the region
source 20 per cent of procurements from local and
social enterprises
flexible employment/skills training
invest in infrastructure (especially in rural areas)
health, education, social, and look to develop health
improvement plans for communities to achieve at least
an equality of access to services across the region
move from geographic towards socio-demographic
perspective

GOAL: Ensure the region benefits from the development of international gateways, national and
regional transport corridors
General comments
The most consistent comment about this goal was that it
was too passive. More emphasis should be given to getting
the maximum from the potential development of gateways
and transport infrastructure, with a particular emphasis on
regional leadership and lobbying of national government by
demonstrating the case for improvements in transport
infrastructure. Airports and ports were seen as gateways
that could be further developed as hubs of economic
activity if the public and private sector worked together to
leverage funding an issue that many felt deserved more
emphasis in the wording of the goal and associated
priorities.
There was also some debate about whether this goal
should focus more on the big infrastructure projects
nationally and regionally or whether it should include
more on local transport solutions. The majority view
seemed to be that the latter would fit better in the goal
about sustainable communities assuming this is expanded
to cover more than the Growth Areas, while this goal
should be primarily about the larger flagship
infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of
international gateways and major road improvements.
Overall this strategic goal received a high level of support,
although some suggested that it could potentially be the
most controversial goal within the strategy, given the
potential environmental impact.
Priorities and actions
Not surprisingly given the earlier discussions about the
lack of decent infrastructure and the opportunities it could
provide in future, the workshops identified a wide range of
priority actions, as follows:
identify the infrastructure improvements that will
deliver the greatest economic benefit to the region.
Examine ways to speed up the delivery of these
improvements, but with sensitivity to social and
environmental consequences
create a vision for transport and gateways which links
regional, sub-regional, national stakeholders and
private sector
build strategic leadership to develop potential of
gateways to see through deeper understanding of the
markets
build an inclusive strategy for East of England which
includes freight as well as people transport
Strategy development and action planning
mitigate environmental impact of this goal by focussing
on land use integration and promoting innovative
mechanism
understand and deal with transport impact of the
housing development in the region
need to put infrastructure around ports before
development of facility is complete
transport priorities: Take the Regional Transport
Strategy as starting point, choice for employment
location, reduce out commuting, reduce need for travel
assess impact of London commuting and how choice of
employment locations link with proximity to London
new funding mechanisms for transport public, private
partnership, innovative mechanisms too
explore/support cluster development at key gateways to
increase added value and economic activity in the
region
identify and maximise added regional value from
port/airport activities hinterland development, skills
training, business infrastructure
EEDA and planning authorities to develop better
relationships with transport gateway operators, and co-
operation with other national and international
operators
use infrastructure to support existing industries (eg.
tourism), both physical and virtual
need to create economic conditions prior to gateways
development
There was a great deal of emphasis within the actions
about exploiting the gateways that the region has (including
those which are planned to expand in the future),
particularly by developing clearer relationships between
gateway operators, local businessmen and planning
authorities. Further lobbying and facilitation of improved
partnerships to develop innovative funding packages and
local transport solutions was also suggested.
There was also an emphasis on proactive planning the
development of infrastructure in order not only to maximise
the economic benefits, but also minimise the possible
environmental damage that could result from new
developments.
Strategy development and action planning Page 47

GOAL: Achieve accessible high-speed data connections infrastructure with increasing levels of take
up and usage

General comments

The first two workshops both felt that this should not be a
priority goal for the strategy. It was felt this goal as
currently drafted would not differentiate the region, and
that our current view of high speed data connections may
not be the most relevant for future technologies, thereby
making the wording of the goal seem very narrow.
Nevertheless high speed data connections were seen as an
essential part of the regions infrastructure, particularly for
rural areas, but not a means in itself.
make public sector broadband networks available in
areas of market failure to support village networks
ensure that economic benefits of broadband are
realised by encouraging applications/content and the
acquisition of relevant skills
make sure that the infrastructure in the region keeps
pace with the demands of new applications and
technologies
facilitate links with other providers

Most people felt ICT was important, but did not necessarily lobby government.
need to stay as a stand-alone goal. It was felt it would be
There seemed to be three themes or groups of actions
better featuring as a cross-cutting issue. There was also a
proposed. Firstly the need to lobby government and work
sense that the wording of the goal should be expanded to
with broadband providers to expand the infrastructure
cover the potential impact of newly emerging technologies.
across the whole region was proposed. Secondly the need
Most agreed that the emphasis on broadband was too narrow
to raise the awareness among local businesses of the
given the timescale and pace of technological advance.
opportunities offered by new technologies was emphasised.
Finally there was felt to be a need to raise ICT skills and
For most this was a goal that could be dropped with
awareness among the general population.
relevant actions being fed into other goals relating to skills
and infrastructure. However those who felt it should
remain pointed to the fact that this goal hit a number of
key government priorities eg. rural isolation, sustainable
development, reducing congestion and increasing e-
commerce and e-government. There was certainly strong
feeling from some in the third workshop that ICT elements
should be brought together under one goal rather than risk
them getting ignored as a cross cutting issue.

Priorities and actions

increase numbers of businesses/employees receiving

high level ICT skills training
public and private sector collaboration to promote
benefits of ICT use amongst consumers and
businesses
increase numbers of business and individuals engaged
in use of e-learning
development of ICT infrastructure/accessibility eg.
work with communities for BT provision
build skills awareness and training amongst users and
potential users (including socially excluded groups) to
increase basic levels of IT literacy across the region,
eg. by ensuring local training providers provide suitable
ICT training (have a regional training target)
understand and invest in new technologies
co-ordination and industry standards
establish special programmes to ensure rural and
remote areas access
 Strategy development and action planning

GOAL: Develop opportunities for the sustainable management of the regions environmental and
energy assets

General comments

A number of people felt that this goal was currently too
woolly and needed a harder edge, reflecting the need for
more proactive promotion of the energy and environmental
technology sectors in the region. There was some
confusion about whether the goal referred just to
environmental and energy technologies, or wider
environmental and energy assets (such as biodiversity and
protected habitats). Some were slightly concerned about
the loss of the focus on the natural environment but the
majority felt that this could be dealt with under other goals
or dealt with as a sustainability proofing issue that cut
across all the goals.
There was also a suggestion from some that the goal was
too sector specific. However from others there was a
strong feeling that this represented one of the few factors
which separated the region from other parts of the UK
given its natural comparative advantage in this area.
enable rural diversification through changes in
planning
support increases in rural productivity through
opportunities in environmental assets
support biodiversity and understand environmental
impact of economic development
focus on organisation opportunities and supply side
issues
The first workshop focussed on the development of the
sector as a key part of the growth of the region,
recommending a number of specific actions which would
help promote the sector in a proactive manner that would
benefit the region and make the most of its natural assets in
this area in line with the principles of improved resource
productivity. The final workshop outlined a mixture of actions,
most of which were concerned with promoting a wider view
of environmental sustainability throughout the region.

Discussion around these issues seemed to crystallise with

a view that the goal should be reworded to reflect the
principles of resource productivity, with some suggesting
the region could become a carbon neutral region over the
long term.

Priorities and actions

develop an offshore wind centre (in and

around Lowestoft)
develop a bio-ethanol plant
promote more grown fuel crops in region
foster partnerships at a regional level to develop a
strategic framework for the development of a policy
within which the relevant agencies can develop the
sector as a key part of the regions economic
development strategy
place sustainable construction at heart of
developments in growth area to promote truly
sustainable communities
work with private sector to promote resource efficiency
create examples of good practice in
resource productivity
understand the impact of the use of resources
(research a baseline)
support the development of environmental goods
and services (to create critical mass of providers
in the region
Strategy development and action planning Page 49

GOAL: Develop the role of the East of England in the national and global economy

General comments

Some people felt this could be a goal to drop from the list, develop a communications/marketing strategy for their
but others felt it as one of the most important, perhaps region, for lobbying/influencing not branding
reflecting the fact that it was seen as something that EEDA develop more sophisticated arguments (for use
and the region could actually deliver on in a fairly short in lobbying) that address the specific issues of this
timescale which would have a significant impact. Certainly region (eg. deprivation is more dispersed than in
lobbying for the region with a single voice, to national other regions)
government, the EU and to potential UK and international
more emphasis/stronger lobbying role in relation to
investors and markets was seen as a key factor in
national government policy, eg. on things such as the
delivering the other goals.
Lyons Review
work more closely with neighbouring regions as part of
A number of people felt that the goal did not reflect the
a Greater South East, ensuring better alignment with
regions USP, though others stressed that selling the
other regional strategies
region artificially as a single brand would be unwise. There
was a felling that the region was a collection of brands. avoid spreading actions too thinly focus on doing a
Some made a distinction between promoting the region few big things better.
through an effective marketing and communications
There seem to be three groups of priority actions identified
campaign and cohesive lobbying and representation for the
here. Firstly the development of a proactive promotions and
region at a national and international level. Crucially many
marketing communications strategy for the region was
saw the crucial goal as effective representation of the
proposed, to cover both UK and international markets.
regions interest at a national level in order to effect policy
Secondly there is support for a more cohesive and
development and obtain a larger resource to support the
proactive voice at regional level to lobby and influence
growth of the region.
national government and the EU on issues of key concern,
including the development of more sophisticated
A number of people suggested that the goal should better
arguments about the strengths, weaknesses and
reflect the need to work effectively with other UK regions,
requirements of the region in relation to national policy,
particularly London and the South East. There was
and more co-ordination of MEPs lobbying efforts in
certainly felt to be a need to increase looking out and
Europe. Thirdly, there is widespread support for a more
bringing learning in from relationships with other regions
outward looking and collaborative region, working in
and parts of the world.
partnership with neighbouring regions and aligning
strategies for mutual benefit.

Priorities and actions

Only a few specific actions were identified under this goal,

perhaps reflecting the mixed degrees of support for the
goal and the fact that it was seen as a slightly different type
of goal, which related more to delivery of the other key
goals rather than necessarily being an end in itself. The
third workshop, with EEDA representatives, did not discuss
this goal in detail, agreeing with comments made at the
earlier workshops that the goal was slightly different from
the others in that it related to a delivery mechanism for
achieving other goals. Nevertheless there was some
consistency about the key actions identified in the first two
workshops, which were as follows:

stronger, more co-ordinated influencing role within the

EU to include more co-ordinated messages and
briefing MEPs, hopefully promoting more cohesive
action on lobbying/influencing policy making at national
EU level (policy determines funding)
5 APPENDICES
5.1 Scenario transcripts - full
Scenario 1: Who wants to be a Millionaire
Building businesses, rapid growth in transport and ICT infrastructure
Over the last 15 years, the East of Englands identity has
been completely reinvented. Long known for its quaint
sea-side towns, the detached intellectual rigour of
Cambridge University and expansive rural landscape, the
region in 2020 is seen as one of the economic hotbeds of
Europe, beginning to overtaking the South East in many
league tables of economic performance.
There have been two key elements to this dramatic change
in fortune. First of all, an ambitious programme of transport
infrastructure development has improved the quality of
access to many key areas of the East of England. Air travel is
a key driver, with infrastructure plans including the further
development of Stansted, a planned second runway at Luton
by 2025, and significant support for some smaller airports
both of which have significant increases in traffic. In fact,
Easyjet and Ryanair have both agreed a deal with Norwich
airport which will see numerous flights to key cities
throughout Europe on a regular basis. Many roads including
the heavily congested A14 have been widened, and
augmented by a series of new links stretching east-west
across the region. This is not only true of road a series of
dedicated rail links now connect the larger conurbations
with significant towns and cities throughout the country.
These investments have been accompanied by the
embedding of ICT throughout the region broadband
connections are no longer an exciting innovation, but a part
of everyday life for both businesses and the home.
The second key change is the increased sense of
entrepreneurialism palpable throughout the region. This
may be partly due to the increased connectivity of the region,
but it has also been facilitated by increased interactions
between the intellectual heartlands of the region and
businesses in their hinterlands, perhaps personified by the
flagship development of the sparkling new and modern
bridge of ideas between Harwich and Felixstowe.
The bio-tech community in Norwich has provided some
exciting business propositions, and whilst little new pure
research is being conducted, a new company producing
functional foods has had huge success and is now a key
employer in the region. On the coast, the improvements in
road and rail transport have led to a renaissance in
container traffic. However, there are indications that this is
now starting to plateau, calling into question further
development proposals for Shellhaven. Such activity has
been met with great enthusiasm by the newly elected
regional government, who have put into a place a series of
initiatives aimed not only at encouraging and nurturing new
businesses to grow, particularly in the urban areas like
Luton and Bedford previously dominated by traditional forms
of manufacturing, but also by marketing the regions
strengths, brand and vision nationally and internationally.
This atmosphere of innovation seems to be infectious, and
new and successful companies are sprouting up in
Bedfordshire, Essex, on the coast and around the
universities. Collaboration with London and the South East is
a key part of the strategy, promoting the regions role and
assets as part of the wider national economy, and reaping
the rewards of the attention received from national
government as a result.
In itself, this success has attracted the attentions of bigger
international companies, and many global and European
companies looking for space for head offices are relocating
to the region, finding the likes of Bedford, Stevenage and St
Albans close enough to London to keep financiers happy, but
far enough away to offer their employees families good
quality of life and decent services. Where larger businesses
plant themselves, smaller suppliers are following and
locating in the surrounding area. There is huge growth in the
Oxford - Cambridge arc, which has spin off benefits for
small distribution businesses in Hertfordshire and
Bedfordshire.
Appendices
The Thames Gateway, once an embarrassing adjunct to the
region, is fast becoming a jewel in its crown in many ways
emblematic of this newfound success in a truly 21st century
economic environment: well connected by road, rail and the
new high-speed maglev train to London, and with high level
ICT connections incorporated into its new housing and
business structures, it is providing a fertile area for
blossoming entrepreneurs to cultivate their businesses in
easy reach of London and, via Stansted and Luton, the
principal cities of Europe.
However, the path isnt entirely smooth. Some of the
proposed roads and related development of new business
parks were the subject of tenacious environmental
campaigners, while others were largely disregarded. In
addition to a fairly militant fringe, a more general feeling is
spreading throughout the region that some of the natural
beauty of the region has been lost. Despite a fairly
aggressive policy of maintaining large areas of unspoilt
natural beauty such as the Broads, vast swathes of land
have been swallowed up by roads, business parks and
housing developments required by the regions burgeoning
economy. Some hotspots have become heavily polluted and
congested. Bedfordshire, Essex and Hertfordshire
increasingly feel like parts of outer London, with the
continuing growth of the commuter belt spreading rapidly
outwards from the capital. Just as worryingly, it appears the
speed of growth has taken many by surprise and the related
social infrastructure in many areas is struggling to keep up.
Quality of life is not what it used to be in some parts of these
areas, with the growth of gated communities to keep the
have-nots out perhaps best illustrated by rumours that
Woburn Abbey will soon be sold off and converted into luxury
executive housing and a health farm. The local press
recently ran with a headline of Welcome to Londons newest
Borough with a picture of Luton station and a new housing
development nearby.
There is also concern about the fate of Cambridge. Whilst
both Cambridge and Norwich were once seem as leaders in
their field, this has slid somewhat in recent years. As large
international firms have come in and poached many leading
research scientists, there is a feeling that genuine R&D is
being supplanted by the exploitation of existing ideas for new
business opportunities. Cambridge as a whole seems to be
labouring under this accusation that it is no longer a centre
of excellence but a lackey of big business. Fears about the
sustainability of such a position are increasingly being
expressed by the Cambridge Evening News, although
rumours that it will soon be renamed Glaxo-Wellbeing
University will surely prove unfounded.
Page 51
The effects upon social polarisation are complex. In many
urban areas, economic and social polarisation are declining
as new jobs are created, providing opportunities for social
inclusion. This has been accompanied by a greater
engagement among sections of the population that used to
feel disenfranchised and ignored. However, the picture is not
entirely rosy: pockets of deprivation in the towns still exist,
and the proximity of extreme wealth and deprivation is
causing some tension in the major urban conurbations.
Furthermore, the development of businesses around a
number of hubs has worsened the rural-urban divide, made
worse by the continuing decline in farming and the resulting
downturn in the traditional food processing sector. Most
have switched to local marketing, guaranteeing quicker
times from farm to market than ever before, and focussing
on the premium products sector, which is growing as a
result of new wealth coming to the urban areas and
suburbs. Less are employed in this more technical and fast
moving food sector, but some of the more business like
farmers can still make a decent living. However, the
stewardship of the land remain a problem in some rural
areas, with fears that green field land will become dustbowls
with the onset of climate change, new developments, and
older farmers deserting their land. In these rural areas,
social division has dramatically increased. Rural towns are
not so much isolated but rather increasingly gentrified, as
they have become homes for the rich and affluent in society
who commute to the major towns nearby or buy second
homes as country retreats. The increased accessibility has
had a particularly noticeable effect on the seaside towns,
which are now almost entirely populated by affluent workers
in new executive style developments, and ageing retirement
communities. Less affluent families and low skilled workers
have been pushed out of their home communities, and this
is beginning to cause significant problems around social
identity and rising crime in some areas.
Even the state of rural tourism is changing, with more focus
on flagship facilities and attractions, bringing new money
into the region, but placing it in the hands of the few. Some
areas with high quality attractions do well, but other
traditional market towns no longer have the pulling power
for visitors they once did.
Page 52
Scenario 2: Going for Gold
Exporting ideas, rapid growth in transport and ICT infrastructure.
The East of England is one of Europes most renowned
centres of research and development, a global knowledge
hub which is talked of enviously across the continent.
Leading pharmaceutical companies have expanded their
R&D capacity, and other global companies have put down
research roots. The focus on ideas and innovation has
provided an important platform from which to differentiate
the region and help build a strong identity. The regions
brand has helped to attract large numbers of highly skilled
workers into the region, as well as numerous wide-ranging
investment programmes.
The development of such a prestigious reputation has
come at a price, however. The highly competitive nature of
the ideas market means that it is imperative to remain at
the cutting edge of innovation. In recent years, some have
started to question the long-term feasibility and
sustainability of an economy based exclusively on ideas and
innovation. Some firms are already deciding to relocate
their R&D outside the region in order to be closer to their
manufacturing base, prompting The Norwich Evening Post
to run an article arguing that the lack of a comprehensive
approach encompassing both business innovation and R&D
was putting the region at a severe disadvantage. Even with
the recently announced expansion of Norwich International
airport, due to problems concerning the planned expansion
of Luton, and the promise that Norfolk never looked
closer, the region just isnt attracting the business growth
that was hoped for.
Despite these concerns, the East of England has enjoyed
near-full employment for the last few years, mainly as a
result of the many new, high-skill jobs that have been
created as a result of the burgeoning R&D sector, and
knock on demand for local shops and services. Average
incomes across the region have increased but an
unfortunate side effect has been the creation of a dual
labour market in the region, with increasing levels of
polarization between high and low skill worker. Many of the
high skilled jobs are occupied by those coming into the
region. The links between the US and the burgeoning film
and TV industry in East Anglia and Hertfordshire is one of
the regions success stories, but most of the benefit has
gone to creative directors and producers moving or
commuting from London. There have been some side-
effects on the nearby towns and cities, with the growth of
stylish retail shopping centres, caf culture and other
services, providing employment for those nearby.
Appendices
The main cities and towns are becoming less and less
unique in character, and despite the rising trend for retail,
it seems spending is not increasing the happiness and well
being of everyone in the region.
Many of those coming into the area for research, or quality
of life reasons can command globally competitive salaries,
enabling them to buy most of the good quality housing. The
communities in which these highly skilled workers live are
changing too, especially in rural areas, many of which are
littered with socalled virtual villages where knowledge
workers increasingly working part of the week from home.
The communities are much more transient as many of
these workers tend to live in an area for a short period of
time, then move on elsewhere. The sense of community is
dissipating in many areas, despite an increase in the
number of people spending time working from home
during the week. Another change is the decreasing
numbers of young people: more and more young people
are leaving the region in order to get on to the property
ladder elsewhere.
Supply of new homes has become a controversial issue. A
lack of skilled construction workers means some house-
building plans have been delayed, or in one high profile
case near Cambridge, cancelled. National and regional
agencies have been criticized for over-emphasising the
importance of intangible skills in the knowledge economy
leading to shortages of workers in other key areas, such as
construction and health care. An increasing reliance on
overseas workers to fill these skills gaps has lead to
instances of social unrest in Great Yarmouth and other
deprived areas. While migrant Portuguese agricultural
workers were much in evidence 15 years ago, most
plumbers, builders and taxi drivers in some parts of the
region are now from Central and Eastern Europe.
Similarly there is growing press coverage concerning a
planned repeat of the so-called Town vs Gown riots at this
years graduation ceremonies in the university towns.
Cranfield Universitys class of 2019 found themselves
pelted with tomatoes and flour as the Universitys new
campus was said to provide better accommodation than
many locals enjoyed. Press reports suggest that
Cambridge, Luton and Hatfield are set for similar protests
this year from local residents, linked as much to
employment opportunities as housing shortages.
Appendices Page 53

Quality of infrastructure is now a strong selling point for
the East of England. Stansted and Luton have been an
important part of this, with many more air routes flying into
the airport, as well as an increase in surface transport
links within the region and beyond. The regions ports have
grown in importance as international gateways, but without
being connected to the rest of the region; the trucks roll
across from the North and the West, but do little for the
East of England, apart from distribution firms in the
surrounding areas.
However, the development of the regions transport
infrastructure has been a hard fight, and new housing and
business developments have made the area a magnet for
environmental campaigners. Individuals in the region have
quickly realized that they can only influence public policy
through collaboration with others, either by joining existing
organizations, or more frequently by forming transient,
single issue groups which increasingly employ shock
tactics in order to garner publicity for their cause. The
social impact of the environmental protests has been
mixed. Whilst in some areas protests have acted as a
catalyst, helping to foster a strong sense of local
community, in other localities the protests have had quite
the opposite effect: creating antagonism between local
communities and the land owners who are profiting from
development.
The foundation of the regions success in exporting ideas
has been the strong partnerships that organizations such
as EEDA and EERA have consciously sought to develop
between the public and private sectors, and the higher
education establishments. The universities have benefited
most obviously from the strategic focus on R&D. Many of
the regions universities now rank amongst the best in the
country, topping the league tables to attract the most able
candidates, and able to charge the highest student fees,
but others lag behind, focussing on producing high
volumes of graduates, rather than new innovations and
ideas. Continuous development in innovation and ideas
means continuous investment is vital. Some HE institutions
are following UEAs lead of the University of East Anglia and
setting up intellectual capital funds. Suffolk has finally got
its university a unique private/public initiative in which a
leading UK telecoms company opened up much of
Martlesham to create a technology centre which
specialized only in higher degrees. The influential
Committee of Vice Chancellors has been instrumental in
creating awareness of the value of the East of Englands
research capability in the City. Investment finance hasnt
been a problem. The same hi-speed rail connections that
link Cambridge and the City of London mean that Europe,
too is closer at hand.

The simultaneous development of the regions IT

infrastructure has enabled increasing numbers of workers
to work from home. Although few do this on a full time
basis, there is a significant drop in road traffic levels in and
around the major urban centres and smaller market
towns. Improved physical and IT infrastructures have
meant that the workforce is now more evenly distributed
around the region, which has alleviated many of the space
and traffic problems which were previously a problem in
many urban localities.

However, improved infrastructure has not had an entirely

beneficial impact on the region. Whilst the rural parts of
the region are no longer so isolated, there is concern that
the quality of life has declined as a direct result. Many
areas have simply become thoroughfares for goods and
people travelling between the rest of the UK and
continental Europe with all the pollution that entails.
Furthermore, the growth in infrastructure has made the
areas closest to London increasingly attractive to
commuters, further exacerbating housing problems.
Page 54
Scenario 3: The Crystal Maze
Building businesses, minimal growth in transport and ICT infrastructure
The region has got something right. After years of
complaints about gaps in commercial and managerial
skills, it has invested heavily in developing these, at all
levels of the educational sector from secondary school
onwards. Despite some initial concern from parts of the
education sector, who feared that lifelong skills were being
traded for the short-term needs of the employment
market, it has quickly become clear that there isnt a
trade-off.
Equally there have been an increasing emphasis on
building a strong regional identity based around cultural
regeneration and a small number of flagship
developments, with a view to raising aspirations in the
region and making the region more attractive to those from
outside. Key city centres have been modernised. Luton and
Peterborough are now thriving retail metropolises which
attract many shoppers from London and the South East,
while Cambridges thriving arts scene is popular with
young and old alike.
The result has been a steady growth in skills and
aspirations in the region, which has improved the size, and
effectiveness, of the regions SMEs, and given rise to a
significant number of smaller micro businesses. Those
who have found ways to connect themselves with the
regions existing gateways and the growth of hubs around
North London, Cambridge and Milton Keynes tend to do
better, as do the emerging leagues of smaller micro
businesses who manage to tap into and grow from some of
the ideas coming out of the university sector.
However, the relatively poor quality of infrastructure in
most areas, and failed attempts to improve road, rail and
air links mean that larger companies mostly stay away.
There are a few exceptions - the south and west of the
region, where the infrastructure has long been in place,
has done relatively well, spurred on a by a new generation
of middle managers and entrepreneurs who have moved
out of London to enjoy the quality of life and new levels of
venture capital and business support afforded to local
businesses by regional agencies. Some traditional niche
sectors continue to do well, such as the automotive
industry including Formula One.
However, even the growth of SMEs and micro businesses
has been stifled in recent years. Despite the relative skilled
workforce many of the most successful SMEs look to move
elsewhere in order to expand their business.
Appendices
Similar patterns seem set to follow for the micro firms,
many of whom are looking to sell their ideas to the highest
bidder and move onto something new, or try to merge with
other small firms working in the same sector in order to
achieve critical mass and service larger companies on a
national or international scale. Alongside the lack of
infrastructure, the lack of larger companies in the region is
a key factor in this relocation of small firms who are
anxious to get closer to their customers. Skills shortages
are not a problem, except in some areas last weeks
press front page announced Doctor lands Plumb Job,
referring to a PHD student from Cambridge who had
recently trained to become a plumber and was now looking
to establish a co-operative of like minded self employed
tradesman in the region.
Many in the key urban areas say little has changed in the
last twenty years and the recent government report on The
State of the Regions suggest they are right. Statistical
indicators in relation to GDP, employment, housing,
congestion, health, and quality of life indicators etc, in
almost all parts of the region, whether it be Bedfordshire,
Essex or Norfolk look the same as they were at the turn of
the century. Research shows that internal and external
perceptions of the region are also unchanged. Such a
situation seems tolerable for some local residents, but the
exception is young people who seem to be heading either
North and South in search of excitement and opportunity,
unimpressed by the retail parks and service jobs that seem
to dominate local employment opportunities for school
leavers.
The population is increasingly ageing, and many of them
feel disengaged in the new economy and SMEs that
emerge. Most are left out of the upskilling initiatives which
have tended to focus in investing in youth for the future
(many of whom are leaving to find work elsewhere). Most of
those who are working beyond the traditional retirement
age are in low paid service sector jobs, many of them
working in the growing health sector in the region.
However, reports of so called saga louts have been a
recent feature in some areas of the local press, as many
elderly feel devalued and disenchanted with the
opportunities available to them in the employment market.
The surprise package is the development around some of
the port towns. Some of them, notably those in the South of
the region thrive, as they have the infrastructure in place,
and in the last five years seem to have taken on a life of
their own as European companies invest there, and visitor
numbers increase. Others, in the North of the region are
Appendices Page 55

struggling by comparison, in the light of creaking
infrastructure and land use restrictions.
Another success story is the promising developments in
new renewable energy technologies and other types of
sustainable business. Wind farms off the east coast are
now an accepted site, bringing new employment and
growth to the region during what has otherwise been a
fairly stagnant period. Farm land is increasingly being
turned to alternative uses, either small plots used for
growing premium products, or other produce sold in local
food markets (a growth market due to congestion in the
region and across much of the UK), or biofuels, another
growth sector. The region is beginning to develop a
reputation as a role model for sustainable production,
including locally sustainable transport solutions,
something it has pursued as a method for dealing with the
environmental damage caused by congestion and lack of
major infrastructure.
Although SMEs hadnt been the vision for the region at the
turn of the century, there are undoubted benefits. The lack
of transport investment means that the regions
countryside and landscape are left relatively unspoilt. Rural
and coastal tourism are on the increase, particularly in the
unspoilt countryside and market towns of the North and
East of the region, as more and more urban dwellers look
to escape for weekends away. The related service sector
has also faired well, although the planned improvement to
the east coast mainline will mean London dwellers can get
to Yorkshire and Northumbria as quickly as they can to
East Anglia.
Broadband access is universal, but it has sparked the
arrival of city workers at weekends for short breaks and
conferences, rather than major new business growth which
benefits the local economy. Many local schools are under
threat, and the health sector is a growth sector,
particularly in the North of the region. Many former rural
primary schools are being bought up and developed into
local health care centres, part of the government drive for
locally delivered services, although some are bought up by
the private sector. While many of the young go south to get
a job, there is a migration of the elderly in the opposite
direction.
Higher skilled people are more inventive in using ICT to
compensate for growing transport congestion, often
opening up new market opportunities online. Diffusion of
this technical expertise has given additional energy to the
leisure and tourism sector, which also finds itself reaching
new customers virtually, creating opportunities for a
virtuous cycle of new investment, more affluent visitors,
and higher margins.
Cambridge, on the other hand, does not do so well. The
boom years of the 90s and the phenomenon seem very
distant as the local economy over-heats. It is hard to afford
to live anywhere close to the city, except in new high
density housing complexes, (and congestion makes it
impossible to work in Cambridge and live further away).

Rural depopulation is on the increase. While population in

the region generally is on the increase at all age ranges,
the rural villages and towns are increasingly home to
retirement communities, as the old are attracted by the
pace of life, the only young families around are those who
have made their fortune in the City of London and enjoy the
change of pace of their second homes at the weekends.

Norfolk and Suffolk are increasingly being described as the

regions executive playground, with local press covering the
possibility of a resort casino opening somewhere in East
Anglia (Great Yarmouth is the favourite), further building
the vision that some US citizens have of parts of the region
such as Hertfordshire and East Anglia slowly becoming
small extensions of Hollywood.
Page 56
Scenario 4: University Challenge
Exporting ideas, minimal improvements in transport and ICT infrastructure
The national and European competition for those with
business management skills has intensified; and the East of
England, which has always suffered from gaps in this area,
has lost out. Its Business Link has been too fragmented
across the region to compete when other areas developed
their business super-hubs. At the same time, the region
has lost out in the battle for new transport infrastructure.
The Thames Gateway has been developed, along with the
roads which connects it. But the M11 is a mass of gridlock,
despite ever steeper tolls, and the regions rail links are as
slow as ever, with the exception of the high speed East Coast
link connecting Edinburgh to Stratford (via Peterborough)
and the Channel tunnel. Stansteds long-awaited additional
runway has stalled in a morass of protest and litigation.
The areas that prosper are those which have been able to
connect innovation with some degree of entrepreneurialism.
Cambridge is still a world class asset and brand which
attracts the best brains from around the world (although
decreasingly from the UK). In Norwich, UEA has become a
hub for research into new and renewable energy
technologies. Colchester, drawing on the strengths of the
University in Social Sciences, is a European leader in social
entrepreneurship. The new University of Suffolk has finally
given the region a knowledge base to match its maritime
sector. As it establishes itself, there are signs of an
emerging R&D corridor along the A14 to Ipswich. Not all of
this innovation has been driven by the academic sector. As
the pharmaceuticals sector becomes less dependent on the
long patent model and moves increasingly into the well-
being sector, so its innovation model has become more like
the games and software sector, and Hertfordshire has
evolved as a new pharmaceuticals centre, one of the
European leaders.
Generally, though, the lack of large firms in the region has
put a brake on the economic potential. The problem is that
the evolution of these knowledge businesses isnt
sustainable. They fizz and grow, and then are acquired for
their patents or move elsewhere, often to London. The skills
base has repeatedly been found wanting when it comes to
long-term development, despite repeated efforts by regional
economic and skills agencies to remedy this. One sector
which has done well has been the venture capital sector. The
financial connections which initially existed around
Cambridge expanded across the region, benefiting from the
easy access to their City colleagues. This proved to be a
mixed blessing, however: the inevitable pressure from VCs
for early exit strategies tended to enrich entrepreneurs at
the expense of the region, even if some of those
Appendices
entrepreneurs stayed in the region and ploughed their gains
back into new ventures.
Without investment in transport infrastructure, the ICT has
to work harder. Although the fibre provision in the region is
no better than elsewhere in the UK, a social technology
team originally sponsored by a leading telecoms firm and
the University of Essex has pioneered a wave of technologies
which gives rural areas and market towns fast access to
data. While large businesses stay away, cottage industries
do well; niche businesses delivering specialist services and
premium craft products to London and elsewhere. Such
businesses, sometimes sneered at as lifestyle hobbies for
the partners of people commuting to London to the south or
the new Milton Keynes conurbation to the North West,
nonetheless do something to mitigate rural deprivation in
the region. Farming has continued to decline, split between
hobbyists and small organic or alternative crop providers
on the one hand, and ever more capital intensive agri-
businesses on the other. Land use inevitably starts to
change, with some reverting to the traditionally diverse
landscape, which benefited tourism and also improved
perceptions of the quality of life for those who lived in the
area. The RSPB, already a significant regional employer, has
just opened a new research centre in north Norfolk, and a
new wetland reserve is created in Suffolk. Biodiversity and
the natural environment is a big winner, with the
combination of exclusively blue flag beaches along the east
coast of the region, new taxes on air travel, and rapid
climate change springing a steady growth in landscape
tourism in the east of the region.
Other land has been converted to energy crops and biofuels,
with the growth of a new East Anglian faming co-operative
promoting their sustainable energy products under the from
field to furnace brand. Transport infrastructure wasnt
everything, observe the protagonists of this new rural
economy. In a knowledge economy where the service sector
continued to expand remorselessly, point of view is said to
be the most valuable asset you can have.
If the British population is generally ageing, then the East of
England is ageing faster. The region has long since suffered
an outflow of younger people in their early twenties, and the
lack of city life in most of the region means that this trend
has not changed. But the low impact development means
that the region was the sort of place that increasing
numbers of families move to later in life, helped by more
flexible working patterns which mean that those who would
once have been daily commuters tend now to work from
home some of the time. The coastal areas are increasingly
Appendices Page 57

the preserve of older people, alongside the holidaymakers, smaller hi-tech led businesses, but some parts of the region
some more retired than others, with parts of Norfolk known have been losing jobs at the rate of 7,000 a year, and these
by the local press as Gods waiting room. The resulting hi-tech innovation companies are not filling the gaps in
pressures on public services and the voluntary sector are urban communities like Dunstable and Luton, increasing
apparent from the lack of key service workers. Suffolks local seen as part of the commuter belt for Milton Keynes and
press recently ran a report on a key worker caravan site Greater London rather than part of the East of Englands
outside Ipswich where migrant service workers were staying future growth potential.
while searching for affordable housing in the area. Similar
stories have been heard elsewhere in the region. If economic growth is slow and patchy, at least the
environmental impact of the regions development is low.
Even here there was polarisation: some parts of the region The regions turbines export power (an increasingly
are dominated by retirement caravans which are the sign of valuable commodity) to London and to the Netherlands.
ageing poor, scraping by on whats left of the state pension; Nevertheless, the East of England has the last laugh at the
others are far more desirable and even quite affluent, expense of those critics who have accused it of lacking
populated by articulate members of the post-68 generation ambition. In 2017, in the face of impending ecological
who are still active and engaged. In the former areas, social catastrophe in Europe, the EU introduced a radical
services are stretched and abuse scandals surface regularly environmental directive with tough new environmental
in the local press. Polarisation is also a feature of the assessment and compliance conditions. As the Regional
innovation centres; the affluence of the knowledge sector is Assemblys leaders assessed the effect of the measures on
matched by the relative poverty of those employed in the the regions economy, they realised that the structural
burgeoning service sector which struggles by on the effect on the East of Englands economy of complying with
minimum wage, and can barely afford to live within striking the new measures would be the least disruptive of any
distance of the town centres, a challenge to planners. region in England. The region is self sufficient in energy,
and water, unlike many of its neighbours, is top of many
Congestion and new tax regimes discourage car use, but it green league tables and predicts that if it can get new
still takes an age to travel from Bedford to Luton in the transport systems to work it will be the first CO2 emissions
rush-hour. The regions conurbations are not attracting neutral region in Europe.
investment with the congestion, including bumper to
bumper traffic on the key road routes in the south-west of
the region, discouraging investment or any potential tourism
benefit from increased numbers of people passing through
the airports. The south and west of the region is increasing a
thoroughfare through which many people pass but few stop
to visit or do business in. manufacturing is all but gone in
the region the major players in the automotive industry
have withdrawn and located elsewhere, frustrated by the
lack of skills investment in the local workforce and creaking
transport infrastructure. Travel links benefit the visitors, but
do little for the local community or business. Some Luton
residents say it will soon be quicker for them to the US than
get to Bedford by car in the rush hour. Some local
authorities have looked into encouraging or providing new
sustainable forms of public transport, but with little
agreement across the region, most plans dont get beyond
the thinking stage another sign of the lack of regional
leadership, or ability of the region to punch its weight in
policy discussions at regional and national level. Pockets of
deprivation in the inner urban areas go unnoticed, and the
large employers in key urban areas are all but gone.
Employment is a major issue in some parts of the region
where traditional manufacturing and engineering have gone.
Some jobs have come from University spin off activity, and
Page 58 Appendices

5.2 Organisations attending the workshops

EEDA and The Henley Centre would like to thank all those
organisations that attended one or more of the scenario
workshops:

Arts Council England East East of England Tourist Board

Association of Colleges in the Eastern Region English Heritage

Association of Universities in the East of England English Nature

Babergh District Council English Partnerships

Band & Brown Communications Essex County Council

Bedford Borough Council Essex Economic Partnership

Bedfordshire & Luton Economic Development Partnership Federation of Small Businesses

Bedfordshire County Council Forest Heath Council

Business Link Cambridge Government Office for the East of England

Business Link Essex Greater Cambridge Partnership

Business Link Hertfordshire Greater Peterborough Partnership

Business Link Norfolk Harlow District Council

Cambridge Chamber of Commerce Haven Gateway

Cambridge City Council Hertfordshire County Council

Cambridgeshire County Council Hertfordshire Prosperity Forum

Cambridgeshire Lifelong Learning Partnership Hutchison Port International

Centre for e-business in Construction Institute of Directors

Chamber Business Ipswich Borough Council

Community & Voluntary Forum for the East of England Job Centre Plus

Council for the Protection of Rural England Kings Lynn Borough Council

Cranfield University Learning and Skills Council Bedfordshire

Department of Health Learning and Skills Council Essex

East of England Churches Network Learning and Skills Council Hertfordshire

East of England Energy Group Learning and Skills Council Norfolk

East of England Faiths Council Learning and Skills Council Suffolk

East of England Funding Forum Living East

East of England Learning Skills Council Luton Borough Council

East of England Public Health Group Mid-Anglia Engineering Employers Association

East of England Regional Assembly Mid-Bedfordshire District Council

Appendices Page 59

Minority Ethnic Network Eastern Region Suffolk College

National Farmers Union Suffolk County Council

Norfolk County Council Suffolk Development Agency

Norfolk, Suffolk & Cambridgeshire Strategic Thames Gateway South Essex Partnership
Health Authority
The Countryside Agency
Peterborough City Council
The Environment Agency
Race Equality Council - Bedfordshire
The House Builders Federation
Regional Rural Affairs Forum
Thurrock Council
Renewable East
UK Trade and Investment
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Bedfordshire
University of Cambridge
Rural Action East
University of East Anglia
Shaping the Future Norfolk
University of Hertfordshire
Small Business Service, Eastern Region
University of Luton
Southern & Eastern Region Trade Unions Congress
Waveney Chamber of Commerce
St. Edmundsbury Borough Council
Waveney District Council
Star FM
The Henley Centre
11-33 St John Street
London
EC1M 4PJ
w: www.henleycentre.com The Henley Centre

East of England Development Agency

The Business Centre, Station Road,
Histon, Cambridge CB4 9LQ
t: 0845 456 9200
f: 01223 713940
e: resreview@eeda.org.uk
w: www.eeda.org.uk

1
Schwartz, P. (1998): The art of the long view, (p 163), Wiley, Chichester