Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
21 May 2015
Prepared by Douglas- Westwood
Calvin Ling
www.dw-1.com
Established 1990
London, Aberdeen, Houston,
Singapore
Activity & Service Lines
Business strategy & advisory
offshore power
Commercial due-diligence
Market research & analysis
Published market studies
Large, Diversified Client Base
>1,020 projects, >450 clients
>72 countries, >230 sectors
Clients include the top-10:
onshore LNG
Oil & Gas Companies LNG
Oilfield Services
Investment Banks
Private Equity firms
Government Agencies
11/03/2015
downstream renewables
Leading Commercial Advisor for OFS M&A
Excellent report, very comprehensive and well laid out Vestas (Denmark)
Douglas-Westwood are the sector study experts Woodside (Australia
Douglas-Westwood Limited 2011
Client Base Is Varied Across Offshore Stakeholders
Our client base is mixed, but mainly focused on analytical and commercial services
Majors
E&P
OEM &
Service
Providers
Construction
Macro-Economic Environment
Onshore Pipeline Overview
Subsea Pipeline Overview
Conclusions
Macro-Economic Environment
Onshore Pipeline Overview
Subsea Pipeline Overview
Conclusions
11/11/2011
11/21/2012
10/04/2013
10/17/2014
12/19/2014
3/04/2011
5/06/2011
7/08/2011
9/09/2011
1/13/2012
3/16/2012
5/18/2012
7/20/2012
9/21/2012
1/25/2013
3/28/2013
5/31/2013
8/02/2013
2/07/2014
4/11/2014
6/13/2014
8/15/2014
2/20/2015
(67%).
11/11/2011
11/21/2012
10/04/2013
12/06/2013
10/17/2014
12/19/2014
3/04/2011
5/06/2011
7/08/2011
9/09/2011
1/13/2012
3/16/2012
5/18/2012
7/20/2012
9/21/2012
1/25/2013
3/28/2013
5/31/2013
8/02/2013
2/07/2014
4/11/2014
6/13/2014
8/15/2014
2/20/2015
The Oil Story Impact on Offshore Sanctioning
20
Saudi Arabia Onshore Oil Breakeven Price
0
Sep-2005
Jan-2007
Sep-2007
Sep-2009
Sep-2011
Sep-2013
Sep-2015
Sep-2017
Sep-2019
Jan-2005
May-2006
May-2008
Jan-2009
May-2016
May-2010
Jan-2011
May-2012
Jan-2013
May-2014
Jan-2015
Jan-2017
May-2018
Jan-2019
Brent Oil Price & Various Sanctioning Thresholds
Industry response
10
Oil prices must rise to protect producer economies
Brent $66.57
18 May 2015
Will Saudi keep its nerve and wait for US shale production to
fall?
Will other NOCs cut back?
Will OPEC survive?
source: Deutsche Bank Oct 2014
11
The longer prices stay down, the steeper the recovery will be
OPECs El-Badri: $200 oil possible if no one invests
12
Where is the offshore industry heading?
2015-20 Spend by Region Many offshore projects are long term and
Western rarely cancelled post-FID
Europe Africa
15% 13%
North
America
Asia
25%
Momentum following several years of high oil
17% prices 2011-mid 2014 will carry the industry
through a flat period of spend to 2017
Middle
East
7%
Latin Eastern
America Europe
Australasia Recovery 2018 onwards
5%
16% & FSU
600
2%
400 Flat
$billions
300
200
100
-
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Douglas-Westwood, Jan 2015
13
100% 6,000
mtoe
90% Oil 2020-2035
42% 5,000
80%
70%
51%
4,000
60%
50% 3,000
40% Gas 2020-2035
2,000
30%
20%
Power Transport Industry 1,000
10%
0% -
1990 2035 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
The combination of increased energy efficiency throughout OECD states and growing
economies in Asia is driving demand for power generation at the expense of transportation.
Natural gas is becoming an increasingly popular fuel for power generation offering a relatively
safe (compared to nuclear); cheap (compared to oil); and clean (compared to coal) energy
source.
Demand for natural gas to increase by 55% over the next 20 years...
Macro-Economic Environment
Onshore Pipeline Overview
Subsea Pipeline Overview
Conclusions
Most of the pipeline would require internal lining to insulate them from the corrosive process
medium.
Exotic materials such as duplex and super duplex stainless steel are also becoming more
common.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2008 2011 2014 2017
DW expect the gas-focus trend to sustain over the forecast period given the move
towards gas in the global energy supply mix.
The share of gas pipeline will generally stay above 60% of annual installation length
Gas pipelines will maintain their dominant position over liquid pipelines due to the
move towards gas in the global energy supply mix.
The shift towards larger diameter pipelines implies an increase in expenditure per
added km.
Asian Onshore Pipeline: Key Markets and Trends
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2008 2011 2014 2017
Asia is expected to have a sustained level of pipeline development over next 5 years.
We expect a shift towards larger diameter ranges, which will cause expenditure per
km to increase by 9% compared to the previous period.
Macro-Economic Environment
Onshore Pipeline Overview
Subsea Pipeline Overview
Conclusions
Subsea Hardware: Supply Chain Map
Operators: The customer group
for production hardware & SURF
related engineering, procurement
and construction (EPC) services.
The subsea pipelines industry is impacted by a small number of major projects which
are dependent upon various political and economic factors which make the sector
unstable. There will inevitably be delay or cancellation of some projects.
The pipeline market will grow again in 2018 and 2019 with the anticipated start of the
456km Gendalo- Gehem, the 400km Sepat pipelines, and a number of other projects.
The subsea market expenditure in Asia is moving into deeper waters bulk still shallow.
Developments in water depths <250m set to see a decline in share of Capex from 79% to
54% between the past and the future five years.
Current backlogs and small amounts of wellhead installations will drive KM demand for
pipelines / flowlines from 2015 2017.
Expected market improvement beyond 2018 will drive additional platform installation and
gas activities increase in pipeline / flowline demand.
Subsea Pipeline/Flowline Capex: Malaysia
1.40
Capex - Pipeline
Pipelines: $3.5bn; Flowline:
Capex - Flowline $1.4bn (2015-2019).
1.20
1.80
Capex - Pipeline
1.60 Capex - Flowline
1.40
Expenditure ($bn)
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
The potential start of installation on the long delayed East Natuna field will account
for most of offshore installation in Indonesia (2019). In total the two different East
Natuna pipelines will have a length of 1800km.
New gas fields in Indonesia to drive offshore pipeline installations beyond 2016.
Subsea/Trunkline Capex: Australia
2.50
Capex - Pipeline
Capex - Flowline
2.00
Expenditure ($bn)
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Macro-Economic Environment
Onshore Pipeline Overview
Subsea Pipeline Overview
Conclusions
Observations and Conclusions
Macro-economic Environment:
Long term fundamentals of the oil & gas industry remain highly robust.
Key industry risks include rising costs and manpower.
Onshore Pipeline Outlook :
Increasing gasification is shaping the long term demand profile for pipelines. With an
anticipated 35% increase in global energy demand over the next twenty years, natural gas
is expected to account for 26% of total energy consumption by 2030.
Rapid demand growth in Asia is also providing new markets for Russian oil & gas. With
traditional importers in the West expected to curb their energy demand requirements major
new projects such as Russia South Korea connector are in prospect.
Growing demand for larger diameter pipes will compete with the OCTG sector for steel
production capacity.
Geopolitics still remains a key threat to transnational projects.
Subsea Pipeline Outlook:
Subsea pipeline expenditure to dominate Asian, Australasian, Eastern European & FSU
and Middle Eastern markets.
Spend decline from a high this year (backlogs) before more limited activity is seen until
2019, echoing the rest of the market. This is driven by a few large offshore pipeline
projects, and several smaller tie-back pipelines.
Thank you
Calvin.ling@douglaswestwood.com