Conclusions

While there is no scientific method for weighing the balance of the drivers and constraints
detailed in this report, it is clear that an expansion of nuclear energy worldwide to 2030 faces
considerable barriers that will outweigh the drivers. The profoundly unfavourable economics
of nuclear power are the single most important constraint and these are worsening rather
than improving, especially as a result of the recent global financial and economic turmoil.
Private investors are wary of the high risk, while cash-strapped governments are unlikely to
provide sufficient subsidies to make even the first new build economic. Developing countries
will, by and large, simply be priced out of the nuclear energy market. The pricing of carbon
through taxes and/or a cap-andtrade mechanism will improve the economics of new nuclear
build compared with coal and gas, but will also favour less risky alternatives like
conservation, energy efficiency, carbon sequestration efforts and renewables. Nuclear will
simply not be nimble enough to make much of a difference in tackling climate change.
The nuclear waste issue, unresolved almost 60 years after commercial nuclear electricity was
first generated, remains in the public consciousness as a lingering concern. The nuclear sector
also continues to face public unease about safety and security, notwithstanding
recent increased support for nuclear. Governments must themselves consider the implications
of widespread, increased use of nuclear energy for global governance of nuclear safety,
security and nonproliferation, as considered in the rest of this report. It is thus likely that the
nuclear energy revival to 2030 will be confined to existing nuclear energy producers
in East and South Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and India); Europe (Finland, France,
Russia and the UK); and the Americas (Brazil and the US). One or two additional
European states, such as Italy and Poland, may adopt or return to nuclear energy. At most a
handful of developing states, those with oil wealth and command economies, may be able to
embark on a modest program of one or two reactors. The most likely candidates in this
category appear to be Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Kazakhstan, the UAE and Vietnam,
although all face significant challenges in achieving their goals.In terms of technology, most
new build in the coming two decades is likely to be third-generation light water reactors,
using technology that is expected to be more efficient, safer and more proliferation-resistant,
but not revolutionary. Nuclear power will continue to prove most useful for baseload
electricity in countries with extensive, established grids. But demand for energy efficiency is
leading to a fundamental rethinking of how electricity is generated and distributed that is
not favourable to nuclear. Large nuclear plants will continue to be infeasible for most
developing states with small or fragile electricity systems. Generation IV systems will not be
ready in time, and nuclear fusion is simply out of the question. In short, despite some
powerful drivers and clear advantages, a revival of nuclear energy faces too many barriers
compared to other means of generating electricity for it to capture a growing market share by
2030. For the vast majority of aspiring states, nuclear energy will remain as elusive as ever.