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Trumps candidacy relies on the power of fear. It could be the only way for him
to win.
P
eople are scared, Donald Trump said recently, and he was not wrong.
Fear is in the air, and fear is surging. Americans are more afraid today
than they have been in a long time: Polls show majorities of Americans
worried about being victims of terrorism and crime, numbers that have surged
over the past year to highs not seen for more than a decade. Every week seems to
bring a new large- or small-scale terrorist attack, at home or abroad. Mass
shootings form a constant drumbeat. Protests have shut down large cities
repeatedly, and some have turned violent. Overall crime rates may be down, but
a sense of disorder is constant.
F
ear and anger are often cited in tandem as the sources of Trumps
particular political appeal, so frequently paired that they become a
refrain: fear-and-anger, anger-and-fear. But fear is not the same as
anger; it is a unique political force. Its ebbs and ows through American political
history have pulled on elections, reordering and destabilizing the electoral
landscape.
Notes of uplift were few and far between in the convention speech, and
commentators were duly shocked by its dark tone. (The conservative writer Reed
Galen called Trumps convention a fear-fueled acid trip.) Trump summons
fear in the conventional way, by describing in concrete terms the threats
Americans face. But he also, in a more unusual maneuver, summons fear in the
abstract: Theres something going on, folks.
If the normal categories hold in this electionthe patterns of turnout, the states
in play, the partisan and demographic dividesit is almost impossible for Trump
to prevail. The current polls show him losing in just such a predictable way,
dogged by his oenses against various groups. But fear, history shows, has the
power to jar voters out of their normal categories.
Trump paints a fearful picture, and events validate his vision. This is what
happened in the Republican primary: When back-to-back terror attacks hit Paris
in November and San Bernardino in December, he pointed to them as proof that
his warnings about Muslims were justied, and voters ocked to him, boosting
and solidifying his polling lead in the nal stretch before primary voting began.
Trumps standing in the polls rose about 7 percentage points in the aftermath of
the attacks, buoying him to the level it would take to win primary contests.
Now, Trump is again leaning into voters unease. So far, it doesnt seem to be
working, but events could yet change the equation; this is why many pundits and
political scientists believe a large-scale terrorist attack on the eve of the election
would redound to Trumps electoral favorby validating the fearful vision he has
espoused.
You know what, darling? Youre not going to be scared
anymore. Theyre going to be scared.
I used to y a lot, but now I dont get on an airplane unless I have to, Pat
Garverick, a retired tech worker, told me at a recent Trump rally in Northern
Virginia. Theres that little voice in the back of your head that says, Is this safe?
I try to stay away from crowds. There are so many people trying to hurt us or stir
up violence.
Not all the Trump supporters I have asked in recent months say they feel afraid.
One woman told me, Im not scared; Im pissed o. Others cited less
immediate fears: They say they are afraid for their country or their childrens
future. But many cited a visceral sense of insecurity. I am terried, conded
Jonnianne Ridzelski, who I met at a Trump rally in Alabama in April. She had,
she said, been making preparations for disaster, including stocking up on canned
food.
What, exactly, was she afraid of? She couldnt say, and that was perhaps the most
frightening thing of all. I dont know whats going to happen, she said.
While anger makes people aggressive, prone to lash out, fear makes them cower
from the unfamiliar and seek refuge and comfort. Trump channels peoples
anger, but he salves their fear with promises of protection, toughness, strength.
It is a feedback loop: He stirs up peoples latent fears, then oers himself as the
only solution.
You know what, darling? Trump replied. Youre not going to be scared
anymore. Theyre going to be scared.
T
o the seasoned political practitioner, fear is a handy tool. Fear is
easy, Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican ad maker, told me
recently. Fear is the simplest emotion to tweak in a campaign ad. You
associate your opponent with terror, with fear, with crime, with causing pain and
uncertainty.
Fear-based appeals hit people on a primitive level, Wilson said. When people
are under stress, the hind brain takes over, he said. Trump, Wilson believes, has
expertly manipulated many peoples latent fear of the other. Fear of Mexicans,
fear of the Chinese, fear of African AmericansDonald Trump has very
deliberately stoked it and inamed it and made it a centerpiece of his
campaign, he told me.
A majority of Americans now worry that they or their families will be victims of
terrorism, up from a third less than two years ago, according to a survey by the
Public Religion Research Institute. Nearly two-thirds worry about being victims
of violent crime. Another poll, by Gallup, found that concern about crime and
violence is at its highest level in 15 years.
Trump supporters are more concerned than most. According to data provided by
the Public Religion Research Institute, 65 percent of Trump supporters feared
being victims of terrorism, versus 51 percent of all Americans. Three-fourths of
Trump supporters feared being victims of crime, versus 63 percent overall.
Trump supporters also disproportionately feared foreign inuence: 83 percent
said the American way of life needed to be protected from it, versus 55 percent
overall. Two-thirds of Trump supporters also worried that they or a family
member would become unemployed, but this was not much dierent than the
63 percent of non-Trump supporters who had the same concern. Economic
anxiety, while widespread in America today, is not a distinguishing characteristic
of Trump supporters; other anxieties are.
But it is not only conservatives who are susceptible to fear. Almost all of us exist
somewhere on the continuum between the extremes of totally averse to the
unfamiliar and totally enthusiastic about the unknown. Experiments nd that
everyones political views become more conservative when they are provoked to
become more fearful. In one study, liberal subjects who had just been
confronted with a threat immediately reported more conservative views on
abortion, capital punishment, and gay rights.
Shenker makes the case that the world is changing these days more quickly than
any of us are inherently equipped to handle. The modern condition of life is
pretty much an assault on our brains, she told me. Were experiencing change
and ambiguity at a rate unprecedented in human history. Think about how long
it took to get from the agricultural revolution to the industrial revolution. And
now all of a sudden the climate is changing, women are becoming men, Im
talking to you on a little sliver of plastic and metal. We have change in every
dimension faster than our brains have evolved to deal with it. In studying
Trump voters on behalf of MoveOn.org, Shenker found that they responded
strongly to the idea that he would bring order and control to a chaotic world.
Gadarian, the political scientist, said, When people feel anxious, they want to
be protected. Trumps policies, she pointed out, are a literal answer to this
desire: protectionist economics; a wall that physically protects the country from
outsiders. How do you overcome the threat of terror, of crime, of immigration?
You say, We will protect the country by building a wall.
H
ere is a case study in the power of fear in politics. Immigration reform
has seemed ripe for bipartisan compromise ever since George W.
Bush tried to pass it in during his second term. Majorities of voters
consistently say they support allowing undocumented immigrants to become
citizens and oppose mass deportation. Yet the policy has been derailed by
intense, concentrated, visceral opposition. Meanwhile, the reaction to mass
migration has upended the politics of virtually every European nation, from
Brexit to France to Scandinavia.
Frank Sharry, a proponent of immigration reform who heads the group Americas
Voice, has worked on the issue since the 1980s, but the rise of Trump forced him
to revise his understanding. What had always seemed to him like a policy dispute
now strikes him as something more profound and primal, he told me.
Ten years ago, when [John] McCain and [Ted] Kennedy were working together
on comprehensive immigration reform and George W. Bush supported it, I really
thought this was a rational policy disagreement that was headed toward a logical
compromise, Sharry told me recently. Now, I see it as deeply cultural. Its
racially charged, its tribalism, its us-vs.-them. Its a referendum on the face of
globalization, on a moment of demographic and cultural change.
F
ear as a political force comes and goes, ebbing and owing in American
history. Politicians have always played to it: Lyndon B. Johnsons
Daisy ad envisioned a Barry Goldwater presidency leading to nuclear
war; Richard Nixon emphasized law and order as a counterweight to the riots
of 1968; fears of crimewith racial overtonesproduced the Willie Horton ad
in 1988 and the lock-em-up mania of the 1990s. Ronald Reagans 1984 Bear
adThere is a bear in the woods Isnt it smart to be as strong as the bear?
was echoed by a 2004 George W. Bush ad featuring prowling wolves.
People need to displace and project their anxieties, their concerns about their
own lives and the lives of people they care about, onto some other, he said.
Often they are susceptible to politicians who tell them that the wrong kinds of
people are responsible for threatening them or their loved ones.
From colonial times to the early 19th century, the pervasive, virulent fear was of
Catholics, who were seen as inferior, unassimilable, and in thrall to a foreign
dictator (the Pope). The mass immigration of Irish Catholics in the 1830s and
1840s ratcheted up the panic and convulsed American politics, with the Whig
Party collapsing and the anti-Catholic nativist Know-Nothing Party briey
becoming Americas second-largest political party.
After the Civil War, a new inux of Italians, Slavs, and Jews from Southern and
Eastern Europe prompted a new nativist upsurge. By the 1920s, the Ku Klux
Klan had millions of members. But in the 1930s and 1940s, this wave of
nativism largely subsided. What happened? I argue that the nativists won,
Bennett told me. New federal legislation in the early 1920s closed the golden
door and shut o the spigot of migrants.
Many have argued that fear and nativism in politics are driven by peoples
economic insecurity, as struggling members of the majority nd themselves in
competition with immigrants for jobs and wages. But Bennett does not believe
that to be the case. Nativism, he notes, was relatively low during the Great
Depression, and rises in nativist sentiment havent generally correlated with
periods of economic strain. Rather, they have correlated with large-scale
increases in foreign immigration, which natives tend to view as a threat to the
nations safety and culture. (Recent studies have also found a strong correlation
between increases in anti-immigrant sentiment and increases in immigration.)
Its not desperation that makes people turn on the otherits diversity.
Another form of fear also runs through American politics in the 20th century: the
fear of foreign ideology, from anarchism to fascism to Marxism, that solidied
into the Cold War fear of communism. Bennett believes that Trump has
combined the fear of foreign ideology with fear of foreign immigration in a novel
way, with his twin emphases on Islamist terror and Mexican migrants. This, he
says, may be why Trump has done better than many fear-fueled politicians.
I asked Bennett if he believed appeals to fear had the power to realign American
politics. These fear-based movements have tended to be conned to the fringe,
not take over major political parties, he said. But the fact that Trump is the
Republican nominee makes him wonder whether that historical pattern still
holds. This is whats making me so nervous, he said. I dont think we know.
T
here is a nal punch line to the analysis of Trump as the candidate of
fear. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, is now campaigning on a fear-
based appeal of her ownthe fear of Trump.
But Shenker told me that she worries that the Clinton campaign has not done
enough to oer a positive vision as an alternative to Trumps alarmism. Every
time Clinton says, Trump is dangerous, what people are hearing is, The world
is dangerous, its dangerous, its dangerous, she told me. It just plays into the
message of chaos. And the more chaotic the world feels, the more people may
look to Trump for comfort.
MOLLY BALL is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where she covers U.S. politics.