Sie sind auf Seite 1von 22

FinanceandtheGoodSociety

RobertJ.Shiller
YaleUniversity

ASOBANCARIA,Cartagena,Colombia
June6,2013
FinanceandtheGoodSociety,
2012
MoIvaIonforthisBook
Startedbooktwoyearsago,formystudents,at
Yaleandaroundtheworld
OpenYalecourse,FinancialMarkets,
hNp://oyc.yale.edu/economics/shiller
Thenancialcrisiswasaspur,foritmadepeople
angryatnanceandIwastrainingyoungpeople
togointonance
CatherineRampell:25%ofUSstudents
graduaIngfromelitecollegeswentintonance
upto2006
Isthattoomany?
ModernCivilizaIonIsBuilton
FinanceandRelatedInsItuIons
ThewordnancecomesfromtheLaInword
nismeaningendorgoal
AllhumanacIviIesneedtobenanced
ThereisliNleofsignicanceanyonecando
withoutnancing
OrganizaIonsmustlivelongerthanpeopleto
achievetheirgoals
ModernnancealignsincenIves,with
awarenessofhumanpsychology(behavioral
nance)
DemocraIzaIonofFinance
RelatedtoAcemogluandRobinson s
inclusiveinsItuIons
Finance,bankingandinsurancemustbeforall
thepeople
Finance,bankingandinsurancemusttake
accountofthegeneralpopulaIon,recognizing
theirpsychologicalfoiblesandvulnerabilityto
manipulaIon
TheMiracleofFinancialCapitalism
SpectaculareconomicgrowthinChina,India,
Brazil,Colombia,andotheremerging
economiesovermostoftheworld
ColombianeconomicliberalizaIon
Ibelieveovertheworldthisisduetothe
arrivalofnancialcapitalismandassociated
insItuIons
Ownershiprights,divisionintoshares,
incenIvecontracts,riskmanagement,price
discovery,allowpeopletodobusiness
RealGDPGrowthColombiaand
USA,20012012
TheFinancialCrisis
Startedin2007a^ertwinbubblesinhousing
marketandstockmarket.
DespiteregulaIonstoprotectpublic,
salespeopleconvincedhomeownerstoput
theirenIrelifesavingsatrisk.
Financialsystemwassystemicallyfragile,
neededbailingout.
InspiraIonofArabSpringbroughtonOccupy
WallStreetMovement
TheImportanceofBubbles
PeoplearedrivenbyAnimalSpirits
Futureisunknown,unknowable
Socialpsychology,epidemics
Bubblesareinincreasingfrequencyina
moderneconomy
Thepriceofsuccess
ComparingColombian&USAReal
HomePrices,1988=100
ComparingColombian&USA
InaIonRates19892013
ComparingColombian&USA90
DayCerIcateofDepositRates
USARealHomePrices,BuildingCosts,
PopulaIonandInterestRates
18902012IV

GoogleTrends:WebSearchesfor Housing
Bubble peakAug2005
U.S.TenYearExpectaIons
And30YearMortgageRate(Case
ShillerThompsonBPEA2013
U.S.HousingStartsandPermitstoBuild
SingleFamilyHomes19592013(US
Census)
ComparingRealStockPrices
Colombia(IGBC)andUSA(S&P500)
RealS&PStockPricesandEarnings,
January1871toApril2013
CyclicallyAdjustedPriceEarnings
andNominalLongRate18812013
Epilogue:Wealth,Power
andHumanValues
ThereissIllaproblemrelatedtoconspiracy,
castelikebehavior
ThehistorictrendtowardsdemocraIzaIonof
nancehasalreadyreducedthisbehavior
substanIally
Financialtechnologyisnotnecessarilyrelated
tosuchbehavior
FurtherprogresstowardsdemocraIzaIonof
nancecanlessentheseconcerns
PastDemocraIzaIonofFinance
FrenchRevoluIon1789launchedland
reformsinmanycountries
NewYorkSecuriIesLaw1811
Savingsbankmovementearly19thcentury
SecuriIesandExchangeCommission1934
InvestmentCompanyAct1940
Socialimpactbonds2010
BenetcorporaIon2010
Crowdfunding(JOBSAct2012)
FutureDemocraIzaIonofFinance
ThedemocraIzaIonofnanceproceeds
slowlythroughIme
ExperimentaIonisessenIal
ExperimentaIonmustrespectlocalculture
andinsItuIons
Goodideas,oncediscovered,arecopiedall
overtheworld
Wemustbewillingtoexperimentwithnew
nancialformsthatbroadenthescopeof
nance,beneIngtheenIreworld

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen