National Economic University

Statistics Assignment

Group:
Nguyen Cong Thanh Hang - Advanced Accounting 57
Doan Ngoc Mai - Advanced Accounting 57
Hoang Ha Phuong - Advanced Accounting 57
Nguyen Thu Uyen - Advanced Accounting 57
Case study 1:

1) There are 100 observations in the sample, thus the frequency equal percent
frequency distribution.

Percent frequency of items purchased

35

30 29
27
25

20 Percent frequency

15
10 10
10 9
7
6
5
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 or more

Items Percentage
Purchased Frequency
1 29
2 27
3 10
4 10
5 9
6 7
7 2
8 or More 6
 Percentage
Net Sales ($) Frequency
0-24.99 9
25-49.99 30
50-74.99 25
75-99.99 10
100-124.99 12
125-149.99 4
Method of Payment
Over 150 Percentage Frequency
10
American
Total Express 100 2
Discover 4
MasterCard 14
Proprietary Card 70
Visa 10
Total 100

Gender Percentage Frequency

Male 7
Female 93
Total 100

Marital
Status Percentage Frequency
Single 16
Married 84
Total 100

Age Percentage Frequency

20-29 10
30-39 30
40-49 33
50-59 16
60-69 7
 70-79 4
Total 100

Customer
Type Percentage Frequency
Regular 30
Promotional 70
Total 100

We have: a regular Pelican's customers will most likely be:

A married female aged between 30-49

Customer of National Clothing Chain, using Proprietary Card to purchase items
Purchasing 1-3 items in the range total valued $ 10.00-$ 75.00
Highly likely to respond to promotions

2. A bar or pie chart showing the number of customer purchases attributable to the
method of payment.

The number of customer purchases attributable to the method of payment.

80
70
70
60
50
40
30 Number of customer
20 14
10
10 2 4
0
3. A cross tabulation of type of customer versus Gender. Make comments.
100
93
90

80
70
70

60

50 Regular/ Male
Promotional/ Female
40
30
30

20

10 7

0
Type of Customer Gender

Comments:

The overwhelming majority of customers are female.

The overwhelming majority of customer types are promotional.

4. A scatter diagram to explore the relationship between net sales and customer age.
Produce covariance and correlation matrix to support the scatter diagram
Case study 2:
1. Use the sales forecasters prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that
can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its
mean and standard deviation.

We have: =20 000

10 000< X <30 000
1=P )

Z Z < Z / 2
1 =P - /2 < )

10 000 30 000
0.9=P ( <Z< )
And

Then,
z / 2=z 0.05=1.645
= 0.1;
Thus,
x 30 00020 000
Z /2= = =1.645

30 00020 000
= =6079.027
1.645

0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
2. Compute the probability of stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of
management team.
15 000
1500020 000
(
P ( X >15 000 )=P Z >
6079.027 )
=P ( Z >0.82 )=0.7939

18 000
1800020 000
(
P ( X >18 000 )=P Z >
6079.027 )
=P ( Z >0.33 )=0.6293

24 000
24 00020 000
(
P ( X >24 000 ) =P Z>
6079.027 )
=P ( Z >0.65 )=0.2578

28 000
28 00020 000
(
P ( X >28 000 )=P Z >
6079.027 )
=P ( Z >1.32 )=0.0934

3. Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by management team
under three scenarios: Worst case in which sales =10000 units, most likely case in which
sales =20000 units and best case in which sales = 30000 units.
10 000
If the order quantity = 15 000, the profit = 10 000.$24 + 5 000.$5 15 000.$16 = $25
000
If the order quantity = 18 000, the profit = 10 000.$24 + 8 000.$5 18 000.$16 = - $8
000
If the order quantity = 24 000, the profit = 10 000.$24 + 14 000.$5 24 000.$16 = -
$74 000
If the order quantity = 28 000, the profit= 10 000.$24 + 18 000.$5 28 000.$16 = -
$118 000

20 000
If the order quantity = 15 000, the profit = 15 000.$24 15 000.$16= $120 000
If the order quantity = 18 000, the profit = 18 000.$24 18 000.$16 = $144 000
If the order quantity = 24 000, the profit = 20 000.$24 + 4 000.$5 24 000.$16 =
$116 000
If the order quantity = 28 000, the profit = 20 000.$24 + 8 000.$5 28 000.$16 = $72
000
 30 000
If the order quantity = 15 000, the profit = 15 000.$24 15 000.$16= $120 000
If the order quantity = 18 000, the profit = 18 000.$24 18 000.$16 = $144 000
If the order quantity = 24 000, the profit = 24 000.$24 24 000.$16 = $192 000
If the order quantity = 28 000, the profit = 28 000.$24 28 000.$16 = $224 000

4. One of Specialtys managers felt that the profit potential was so great that the order
quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any
stock-outs. What quantity should be order under this policy, and what is the projected
profit under the three sales scenarios.

K20 000
(
P ( X < K )=P Z <
6079.027 )
=0.7

K 20 000
=0.525
6079.027

K=23 191

In which sales = 10 000, the profit = 10 000.$24 + 13 191.$5 23 191.$16 = - $65

101
In which sales = 20 000, the profit = 20 000.$24 + 3 191.$5 23 191.$16 = $ 124
899
In which sales = 30 000, the profit = 23 191.$24 23 191.$16 = $139 146

5. Provide your own recommendation for an order quantity and note the associated profit
projections. Provide the rationale for your recommendation.

To maximize the expected profit, we need to focus on the loss of profit in the event a
stock out does take place. For every toy left over, Specialty will end up losing 11$. And
following the previous analysis, we find the probabilities of demand being larger or equal
15 000 units and 18 000 units are very high to 80% and 63%. Therefore, the loss of profit
will become larger if the ordering quantity becomes farer from the demand of 15 000
units or 18 000 units.
Additionally, a single-period inventory model recommends an order quantity that
maximizes expected profit based on the following formula:

cu
P ( Demand <Q )=
c u +c o
 c u= price per unit cost per unit=$ 24$ 16=$ 8
Where
c o=cost per unitinventory price per unit=$ 16$ 5=$ 11

So,
8
P ( Demand <Q )= =0.421
8+11

Q 20 000
Z= =0.2
6079.027

Q =18784

In which sales = 10 000, the profit = 10 000.$24 + 8 784.$5 18 784.$16 = - $16 624
In which sales = 20 000, the profit = 18 784.$24 18 784.$16 = $150 272
In which sales = 30 000, the profit = 18 784.$24 18 784.$16 = $150 272

Based on the information in the case, we recommend a quantity that maximizes expected
profit of Weather Teddy. From the calculation above, we can see that if the company
orders 18 784 units, the expected profit will be largest out of the four quantities, which is
$150 272.
Case study 3:
1. Formulate and present the rationale for the hypothesis test that Par could use to
compare the driving distances of the current and new golf balls.

We specify a hypothesis test with

x y
H0: =
versus the alternative that
x y
H1:
x y
Where is the population mean driving distance of new balls and is the
population mean driving distance of current models. A significance level of = 0.05
would be used for this test.
Current New
2. Analyze the Mean 270,275 267,5 data to provide
the hypothesis 76,6147 97,9487 testing
conclusion. What Variance 4 2 is the p-value for
the test? What is Observations 40 40 your
recommendation 87,2817 for Par, Inc.?
Pooled Variance 3
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0
Degree of freedom 78
1,32836
t Stat 2
0,09396
P(T<=t) one-tail 6
1,66462
t Critical one-tail 5
0,18793
P(T<=t) two-tail 2
1,99084
t Critical two-tail 7
From the table, we can easily see that the sample means driving distance of both current
balls and new balls are quite equal. Hence, we estimate that new balls and current balls
have the same driving distances. Following the data, we have:
p-value (one tail) = 0.0939
p-value (two tails) = 0.187
= 0.05
Since 0.0939 > 0.05 and 0.187 > 0.05, we do not reject H0. Therefore, new balls have
driving distance that is comparable to that of the current balls. My recommendation to
Par, Inc. is to put new coating for the golf balls to production and can confidently
launches the new models into the market to increase their market share.

3. Provide descriptive statistical summaries of the data for each model

Current

Mean 270,275
1,38396
Standard Error 8
Median 270
Mode 272
Standard 8,75298
Deviation 5
Sample 76,6147
Variance 4
-
Kurtosis 0,76259
0,30616
Skewness 9
Range 34
Minimum 255
Maximum 289
Descriptive statistical Sum 10811 summaries of the data for
current balls Count 40
 New

Mean 267,5
Standard Error 1,564838
Median 265
Mode 263
Standard
Deviation 9,896904
Descriptive statistical Sample summaries of the data for
new balls Variance 97,94872
Kurtosis -0,51459
4. What is the 95% Skewness 0,23981 confidence interval for the
population mean of each Range 39 model, and what is the 95%
CI for the difference Minimum 250 between the means of the
two populations? Maximum 289
Current balls Sum 10700
Count 40
s s
y t n1, / 2 y y +t n1, / 2
- n < < n
We have:
s
y =270.275 ; =1.384 t =t =z =1.96
n ; n1, / 2 39,0.025 0.025

Then,
y
270.275 1.96(1.384) < < 270.275 + 1.96(1.384)
y
267.562 < < 272.987
y
The confidence interval for the population mean of current balls is 267.562 < <
272.987.
New balls
 s s
x t n1, / 2 x x + t n1, /2
- n < < n
We have:
s
x =267.5 ; =1.384 t =t =z =1.96
n ; n1, / 2 39, 0.025 0.025

Then,
x
267.5 1.96(1.384) < < 267.5 + 1.96(1.384)
x
264.787 < < 270.213
x
The confidence interval for the population mean of current balls is 264.787 < <
270.213
The different between the mean of two population

( x y )t n +n 2, /2
x y
s2p s 2p
+
nx ny < x y
< ( x
y
) +t n +n 2, / 2
x y
s2p s2p
+
nx ny

We have:
x y =2.775 ;
s 2p s 2p
+ =2.089 ; t n +n 2, / 2=t 78,0.025 =z 0.025 =1.96
nx n y
x y

Then,
2.7751.96 ( 2.089 ) < x y <2.775+ 1.96(2.089)

6.869< x y <1.319

The confidence interval for the different between two population means is
6.869< x y <1.319

5. Do you see a need for the larger sample sizes and more testing with the golf balls?
Discuss.
I do not believe we need to larger sample sizes. If we had a larger sample size, the
standard deviations become smaller and it would bring the point values closer together.
The population mean of driving distance of new ball becomes closer to that of current
ball and the result of null hypothesis test is not change.