Solar Radiation Analysis

and Plant Performance

Prasun Kumar Das
Assistant Director,
NIWE
FIVE DAY W ORKSHOP ON
SOLAR PV PLANT OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE FOR NTPC OFFICERS AND ENGINEERS
GERMI, 21.11.2016
Decision Making
 Solar Resource Information
Site selection
Feasibility
Project planning, design optimisation
Performance assessment and monitoring
Operation and energy market
Site Selection & Feasibility

Decision about the site and technology
(site screening, comparing alternatives)

Uncertainty is higher in the complex geographies:
Urban areas, coastal zone, deserts, islands
Mountains and high latitudes: snow, ice, high altitudes
In regions with turbidity
Data Requirement

Representative, continuous and homogeneous long-term
annual and monthly averages data
4
 Project planning, design optimisation
Needs

Detailed solar resource analysis

Yield and performance ratio over the economic lifetime

Uncertainty (return of investment)

Seasonal and interannual variability
Required services
Bankable data for engineering tools optimally based
on site adaptation of solar data (correlation of ground
and satellite-derived data)
Beside solar parameters, also other data are needed: meteo
(air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction)
and high-resolution terrain. 5
Performance assessment and monitoring
Operation and energy market
Needs

Assessment of performance ratio and electricity production
after commissioning

Confirmation of the expected long-term production

Daily monitoring and early warning

Long-term performance assessment
Data Requirements

High quality data
Ground measurements
Satellite-based data

From the most recent time (last 6-12 months)

Low Errors, low uncertainty

Cross-correlated data 6
Solar Spectrum
Attenuation
 Earth Movement
Different Terminology
Radiation measurement
Radiation measurement
Technology Available for measurement
Sensor's Spectral Response
Daily graph
Daily graph
 Aerosol and Visibility
Major factors influencing DNI and GHI

Cloud

Aerosol

Water Vapour
Clouds Aerosols Water vapour
10%
(up to
DNI 0 to 100% 50%) 3 to 4%
2 to 3%
(up to
GHI 0 to 80% 12%) 0.5 to 1%
 Aerosol and Visibility
0.1 - 0.5 change of AOD
=
40% decrease of DNI
Water vapor:
change in DNI 3 to 4%
Solar Radiation Database

IMD

SRRA

NASA

NREL

Solar GIS

DLR

Meteronom

3 Tier
 Satellite vs Ground
Type of data Advantage Disadvantage
Ground based
accurate, site-specific
costly equipment,
measurements
high temporal resolution difficult to maintain

limited availability of
long-term data
Satellite
good availability of long-
less accurate
derived data term data
low time resolution &

most of the regions of the missing ground-truth
world
Solar Radiation Resource Assessment
 Data Quality Pyramid
Data
Quality Control
Calibration
Measurements
Site selection & Installation
Instrument Selection
SRRA Network
Phase I 51
Phase II 60
MEDA 04
AMS 04
Total 121
 Typical SRRA Station
SRRA QC Data Flow
SRRA Level 1
Raw Data
QC tests
Physical limits (radiation+ ambient air parameters)
Limits based on rare observation (radiation+
ambient air parameters)
Limits of a clean & dry clear sky condition
(radiation)
Coherence between measurements (radiation)
Tracking Error (radiation)
Flagging
report/data
SRRA Level 2 reports/data
product
QCd data generator products(monthly, annual,)
QC Summary Sheets - Irradiance
QC Quick Look - K-spaces
I0: Solar Constant (1367 W/m)
: Eccentricity Correction
z: Solar zenith angle
Comparison of different database
Solar Atlas
 Inter Annual Variability

Inter-annual variability is in the range between 2 % to 3 % for GHI and 4 % to 8 % for
DNI

This would be an advantage for financing solar plants as consequently yields should
also show low year to year variability
Seasonal Variability : GHI
 Seasonal Variability : DNI
Regional Applicability of Ground Measurements
Regional Applicability of Ground Measurements
Regional Applicability of Ground Measurements
Regional Applicability of Ground Measurements
Source of Yield Uncertainty

Solar Resource

Simulation

Plant Losses

Transposition Factor

Degradation
Transposition Factor
Diffuse Fraction Model
 Diffuse Sky Model
Clear Sky Cloudy Sky Intermediate Sky
Isotropic Model Non-Isotropic Model

Liu Jordan Model
Perez Model

Klutcher Model

Hay Model
Isotropic approximation only acceptable if at all for cloudy skies!
Yield Uncertainty: P50, P90

P-measures represent a value that is exceeded by XX % of the
population of a data set.

P70 or P90 values are a common practice in the financial world,
and widely applied for PV and wind energy projects. Thus, P-
values of solar radiation are provided to judge the reliability of the
solar resource of a project.

P50 refers to 50% of the years exceeding the value. Accordingly,
the P70 (P90) value defines the DNI, which is exceeded in 70%
(90%) of the years.

Accordingly, the value related to P90 / P70 for a given site are
lower compared to P50, which represents the long-term average.
 Performance Ratio

The performance ratio of a PV power plant as essential criteria to assess the
performance of a PV system

It is defined as ratio of actual and theoretical possible energy output of the PV
plant

The measuring gauge used for the determination of the irradiation must have
the same orientation as the PV modules
Under real operating conditions, performance ratio of the
plants will always be below 100%.
Higher daily PR of above 95% indicates

Soiling error

Radiation sensor in shade

Increase in Plant Capacity
Performance Ratio
 Performance Ratio
Capacity Utilization Factor

Capacity Utilization Factor describes a comparison of the actual produced energy to
a theoretical maximum energy production.

The theoretical maximum is calculated under the assumption of a continuous
operation of the PV power plant at full capacity
 Month wise CUF for PHASE I (NSM)
Month Batch I CUF (%) Batch I CUF (%)
Batch-I have lot of
variation from CUF- 11.57
January 11.71 17.95 % to 21.27 % and average
CUF is 14.89 %.
February 14.44 20.67
March 16.49 22.54
This variation is due to
the fact that projects are
April 17.44 22.67 installed in thirteen States.
May 21.27 22.63

There is no such
June 16.30 22.68 variation of CUF in Batch
II. Minimum CUF is 17.95
July 12.87 19.90
% in the month of January.
August 13.97 20.48 Average CUF is 20.92 %.
September 15.74 21.50

Under Batch II,
October 14.53 20.71 maximum solar power
projects have been
November 12.33 19.90 installed in the state of
Decemr be11.57 18.49 Rajasthan and show CUF
of more than 20 %.
Annual 14.89 20.92
January 2014 to December 2014 Source: MNRE
State Wise Performance : CUF (%)
State Crystalline Thin Film
January 2014 to December 2014
Batch I
Andhra Pradesh 17.81 19.78
C.G. 18.99 -
Haryana 13.99 14.63
Jharkhand 15.22 15.64
Karnataka 17.59 -
Madhya Pradesh 18.36 15.67
Maharashtra 17.73 -
Odisha 13.77 17.94
Punjub 16.67 16.01
Rajasthan 20.85 17.78
Tamil Nadu 16.87 17.01
Uttar Pradesh 17.49 12.27
Uttarakhand 15.67 15.61
Batch II
Rajasthan 20.96 21.70
Maharashtra - 15.25
Andhra Pradesh - 21.31 Source: MNRE