PERIODO ao 1 ao 2 ao 3 ao 4 promedio

1 218 225 234 256 233.25

2 247 254 265 283 262.25
3 243 255 264 289 262.75
4 292 299 327 356 318.5
Promedio 269.1875
Factor Estacional
0.8664964012
0.9742280009
0.9760854423
1.1831901556
alfa = beta = gamma = 0.2

Suavizado con ajuste de

tendencia

Trimestre Demanda Suavizado simple St Gt

0 246.5 1.75
1 218 218.00 242.2 0.54
2 247 218.00 243.59 0.71
3 243 223.80 244.04 0.66
4 292 227.64 254.16 2.55
5 225 240.51 250.37 1.28
6 254 237.41 252.12 1.38
7 255 240.73 253.80 1.44
8 299 243.58 263.99 3.19
9 234 254.67 260.54 1.86
10 265 250.53 262.92 1.96
11 264 253.43 264.71 1.93
12 327 255.54 278.71 4.34
13 256 269.83 277.64 3.26
14 283 267.07 281.32 3.35
15 289 270.25 285.53 3.52
16 356 274.00 302.44 6.20
17 290.40 246.91 -6.15

Demanda
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
do con ajuste de Suavizado con ajuste de tendencia y
endencia Estacionalidad

Ft St Gt Ct Ft Fact.
Estacionales
246.5 1.75
248.25 248.92 1.88 0.87 215.11 0.8664964012
242.74 251.35 1.99 0.98 244.34 0.9742280009
244.30 252.46 1.82 0.97 247.28 0.9760854423
244.70 252.78 1.52 1.18 300.86 1.1831901556
256.71 255.26 1.71 0.87 220.82
251.65 257.63 1.84 0.98 250.79
253.50 259.97 1.94 0.97 252.56
255.23 260.31 1.62 1.17 308.43
267.17 263.28 1.89 0.87 228.14
262.40 266.34 2.12 0.98 259.32
264.88 268.93 2.22 0.98 261.71
266.63 272.73 2.53 1.18 317.72
283.05 278.76 3.23 0.88 240.73
280.90 283.27 3.49 0.98 276.72
284.67 288.61 3.86 0.98 279.94
289.05 294.46 4.26 1.18 344.30
308.64 238.97 -7.69 0.71 263.86

14 16 18
Trimestre Demanda Desestacionalizado Tendencia Variacion
0
1 218 0.8664964 251.5878885316 242.6932 8.8946885
2 247 0.974228 253.5340800763 246.2264 7.3076801
3 243 0.9760854 248.9536156042 249.7596 -0.805984
4 292 1.1831902 246.7904238619 253.2928 -6.502376
5 225 0.8664964 259.6663987138 256.826 2.8403987
6 254 0.974228 260.7192564347 260.3592 0.3600564
7 255 0.9760854 261.247621313 263.8924 -2.644779
8 299 1.1831902 252.7066326531 267.4256 -14.71897
9 234 0.8664964 270.0530546624 270.9588 -0.905745
10 265 0.974228 272.0102478551 274.492 -2.481752
11 264 0.9760854 270.4681255947 278.0252 -7.557074
12 327 1.1831902 276.3714678179 281.5584 -5.186932
13 256 0.8664964 295.4426580922 285.0916 10.351058
14 283 0.974228 290.4864156339 288.6248 1.8616156
15 289 0.9760854 296.0806374881 292.158 3.9226375
16 356 1.1831902 300.8814756672 295.6912 5.1902757
17 259.277 0.8664964 299.2244 299.2244 0

380 Chart Title

330

280 f(x) = 3.5331677838x + 239.1555738381

230

180

130

80

30

-200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Ultimo dato Promedio movil (2)

------ ------ ------ ------

251.58789 245.10397 ------ ------
253.53408 247.47092 252.56098 246.5211
248.95362 294.55947 251.24385 297.26925
246.79042 213.84301 247.87202 214.78021
259.6664 252.97428 253.22841 246.70221
260.71926 254.48427 260.19283 253.97043
261.24762 309.10561 260.98344 308.79304
252.70663 218.96939 256.97713 222.66976
270.05305 263.09325 261.37984 254.64356
272.01025 265.50524 271.03165 264.55005
270.46813 320.01522 271.23919 320.92754
276.37147 239.47488 273.4198 236.91727
295.44266 287.82851 285.90706 278.53867
290.48642 283.53956 292.96454 285.95842
296.08064 350.3197 293.28353 347.01018
300.88148 260.71272 298.48106 258.63276

12 14 16 18