MEB Eng

Charting
Thailands Economy
MONTHLY
September 2015
ISSN: 2286-6132
ChartingThailandsEconomyMonthlyBrief,September2015
PublicationDate:September3rd,2015
Numberofpages:69
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ChartingASEAN.
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ASKTHEEDITOR
ChartingASEANteamconsistsofeditors,analysts,andresearchers.Foranyquestionsand About This Report
commentsaboutthisreport,youcancontactthechiefeditordirectlyat This report is designed to chart out the economic
editor@chartingasean.com. outlook of Thailand on a monthly basis. It is ideal
for corporate management, investors as well as
anyone interested in the second largest economy
in ASEAN.
ChartingASEAN 2
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CONTENTSUMMARY
ThailandGDPgrewonly2.8%in2Q15,aratherslowpacecomparedtolastquarter
Tourismwasbyfarthemaindriverofgrowthontheexpenditureside
Servicewasthemaindriver,whileagricultureandmanufacturingwerethemain
drags
Growth
Manufacturingproductioncontinuestolagbehindlastyearslevel
PrivateconsumptionlagsbehindlastyearslevelwhileandPrivateInvestmentrecovered
ImportdeclinedfasterthanExport.Touristarrivalsgrewimpressively.
Unemploymentdecreasedandstayedbelow1%
Policyinterestrateremainsonthedownwardtrendtoboostgrowth
Businesses,IndustriesaswellasConsumersweremorepessimisticinJuly
Consensusgrowthforecastisnow3.03.5%for2015and4.1%for2016
ThaieconomyisstillindeflationstateinAugust,withbothCPIandPPIloweredthan
theywereayearago
Banksloanisstillgrowing,althoughslowly,andliquidityisslightlysqueezed.Banks
Stability
capitalratiodecreasedbutstillremainedhigh.NPLincreased.
Budgetdeficitin2015hassofardoubledthoseoflastyear.Publicdebtalsoincreased Reading This Report
butnottooworryingyet This report is designed to be read like a
PositiveBalanceofPaymentsofarin2015,thankstotradesurplus.Externaldebthas corporate presentation. Readers can easily
beendecreasing.THBdepreciatedmorethan1%inAugust. follow the content point by point with detailed
charts for each point. Explanation for chart(s) is
provided on the right side bar of each page.
ChartingASEAN 5
Slowerpaceofgrowthin2Q15
Chart1.05 HistoricalRealGDPgrowthrate
Annualgrowth,percent
Last5Quarters Real GDP growth
7.5% 7.3% This chart gives the long-term perspective of
7.2% the historical GDP growth of Thailand. It
also gives the latest annual growth during
6.3%
the last four quarters. It shows the real
5.4% growth, which already excludes the effect
5.0% from inflation. GDP calculations are
prepared by Office of The National
4.2% Economic and Social Development Board
and released quarterly.
3.0%
2.8% 2.8% Historical growth for the Thai
2.1% economy
1.7% The cumulative annual growth rate between
2003-2014 was 3.4%. During the last 10
0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% years, only one year (2009) that registered a
negative growth. Growth in 2010 and 2012
were exceptionally high, representing the V-
shape recovery from the global sub-prime
debt and the countrys flood crisis
-0.7% respectively. Thailand GDP grew only 2.8%
in 2Q15.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate ChartingASEAN 6

Source: NESDB; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Servicewasthemaindriverin2Q15,whileagricultureand
manufacturingwerethemaindragsontheeconomy
Chart1.06a Realgrowthbysector,2Q15 Chart1.06b Sectoralcontributions,2Q15

YearonYearpercentagechange ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth
Source of Growth Production
Hotel&Res 18.7 GDP 2.8 side
Construction 17.3 Transport 0.8 Chart A shows the real growth rate of value
added from each production sector. Chart B
Financial 8.6 Hotel&Res 0.8
shows each sectors contribution to the
Transport 8.6 Financial 0.6 overall GDP growth. The contribution from
each sector must add up to the overall
Othersocial 6.3 Trading 0.5
growth. GDP calculations are prepared by
Health&Social 5.5 Construction 0.5 Office of The National Economic and Social
Development Board and released quarterly.
PrivateHH 5.5 RealEstate 0.2
Trading 3.7 Othersocial 0.1
GDP 2.8 Utilities 0.1 Most contributing sectors for the
Thai economy in 2Q15
Utilities 2.7 Health&Social 0.1 Chart A says that Hotel & Restaurant have
RealEstate 2.5 Education 0.1 grown most from 2Q14 to 2Q15, while
Agriculture dropped the most. Chart B looks
Education 2.2 PublicAdmin 0.1
at the contributions to total growth from all
PublicAdmin 1.3 PrivateHH 0.0 sectors. Most sectors contributed positively
to 2Q15 growth, except Agriculture,
Manufacture -0.7 Fishing 0.0
Manufacturing and Mining.
Fishing -1.6 Mining -0.1
Mining -3.9 Manufacture -0.2
Agriculture -6.3 Agriculture -0.3
Statdiff -0.5
ChartingASEAN 7
Tourismwasbyfarthemaindriverofgrowthin2Q15
Chart1.08a Realgrowthbyexpenditure,2Q15 Chart1.08b ExpenditureContributions,2Q15

YearonYearpercentagechange ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth
X(services) 25.1 GDP 2.8 Source of Growth Expenditure

side
Chart A shows the real growth rate of each
G 4.6 X(services) 3.3
expenditure. Chart B shows each
expenditures contribution to the overall
GDP 2.8 Discrpncy 3.0 GDP growth. The contribution from each
sector must add up to the overall GDP
growth. GDP calculations are prepared by
I(capital) 2.5 C 0.8
Office of The National Economic and Social
Development Board and released quarterly.
I 1.9 G 0.8
Growth drivers for the Thai
C 1.5 I(capital) 0.6 economy in 2Q15
Chart A shows that Tourism (X of services)
grew the most in 2Q15. Chart B shows that
M(services) -0.2 M(goods) 0.1 it also contributed the most to the overall
growth in 2Q15. Decreasing in export of
M(goods) -0.3 M(services) 0.0 goods was the main drag on the overall
growth.
X(goods) -4.0 I(Inventory) -0.2
X(goods) -2.5
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory
G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services ChartingASEAN 8
MPIBeyondTraining
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ContactUs:
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Pat.mpibeyond@gmail.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 10
Chart1.10 ManufacturingProductionIndex
(2000=100) MonthlyAverage
200.0
180.0
Manufacturing Production Index
(MPI)
160.0
Manufacturing Production Index is a
194.2 2014 composite index calculated by the Office of
182.9 Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry.
174.6 177.6 181.6 175.7 140.0 2015 The composite includes all industries and
170.0 167.7
161.1 weighted by their value added. The year
152.1 120.0 2000 is used as the base year and the figure
is released monthly.
100.0
Latest development
80.0 Manufacturing production decreased more
5% year-on-year in July 2015, continuing to
lag behind last years level.
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 11
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Mostsectorshadtheirproductiondecreasedfromayearago
Chart1.11a YonYchangeinMPIbysector Chart1.11b MonMchangeinMPIbysector

July2015,percent July2015,percent
Petroleum 29.2 Chemical 13.3
Chemical 9.6 Electrical 10.0
Vehicles 6.1 Electronic 8.8
Paper 3.7 Vehicles 8.5 MPI by sectors
Chart A shows the year-on-year change in
Metalproducts 3.0 Metalproducts 7.6
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by
Food&Bev 2.1 Apparel 5.8 sector, that is comparing the MPI for the
Tobacco 2.0 Precisioninstru 5.1 latest month with the MPI for the same
Furniture -0.2 Food&Bev 3.2 month of the previous year. Chart B shows
the month-on-month change in MPI by
Apparel -2.4 Paper 2.9 sector, that is comparing the MPI for the
Rubber&Plastic -2.5 Leather 2.6 latest month with the MPI for the previous
Machineries -2.8 Furniture 2.6 month.
Mineral -4.3 Rubber&Plastic 2.0
Latest development
Woodproducts -4.6 BasicMat 1.6
Most sectors had their production decreased
Precisioninstru -5.7 Petroleum 0.4 from a year ago.
Leather -5.8 Mineral -3.2
Electrical -6.5 Textiles -3.4
Textiles -6.9 Woodproducts -8.4
BasicMat -7.7 Officeautomate -10.3
TransportEquip -11.0 Machineries -10.5
Electronic -17.8 Tobacco -12.2
Officeautomate -27.6 TransportEquip -14.1
ChartingASEAN 12
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
HighercapacityutilizationrateinJuly
Chart1.12a OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Chart1.12b Capacityutilizationratebysector

Percent July2015,percent
70%
Rubber&Plastic 89%
Electronic 83% Capacity Utilization rate
68%
Textiles 80% Capacity utilization rate is a composite index
66% Woodproducts 79% of the capacity utilization rate of all major
Electrical 78% industries. The index is prepared by the
Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of
64% Furniture 74%
Industry and released monthly. Chart A
BasicMat 69% shows the composite Capacity Utilization
62% Metalproducts 68% rate in the last 6 months. Chart B shows the
Leather 66% Capacity Utilization rate of the last month by
60% industries.
Officeautomate 64%
Normal
Food&Bev 59%
58%
Latest development
Precisioninstru 49% Seasonally adjusted Capacity utilization rate
Seasonally
adjusted Paper 48% has stabilized at 58.7% in July. Rubber and
56% Plastic has the highest utilization rate at 89
Chemical 47%
while Apparel has the lowest at 26%.
Vehicles 46%
54%
TransportEquip 45%
Machineries 43%
52%
Mineral 42%
50% Petroleum 39%
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Tobacco 31%
Apparel 26%
ChartingASEAN 13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
ThailandsMPInegativegrowthof5%wasthesecondloweston
thelist
Chart1.13 ManufacturingProductionIndex
Latest,percentchangeonyearago
VietnamAug 9.0
ChinaJul 6.0
IndonesiaJun 5.8
Change in MPI in the world
MalaysiaJun 4.4 Year-on-year change in Manufacturing
PakistanJun 3.9 Production Index from the latest period
across major economies. The chart shows
IndiaJun 3.8 the current state of manufacturing
AustraliaQ1 2.8 production in the world. The figures are
compiled by The Economist magazine.
JapanJun 2.3
USJul 1.3 Latest development
7 out of 18 major economies had negative
EuroAreaJun 1.2 MPI growth during the last period reported.
SouthKoreaJun 1.2 Thailands negative growth of -5% was the
second lowest on the list.
HongKongQ1 -1.6
TaiwanJul -3.0
BrazilJun -3.2
PhilippinesJun -3.6
RussiaJul -4.6
ThailandJul -5.3
SingaporeJul -6.1
ChartingASEAN 14
Source: The Economist Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 15
Privateconsumptioninoverallislaggingbehindlastyearslevel
despitebigsurgeintouristspending
Chart1.14a CompositePrivateConsumptionIndex Chart1.14b YonYchange

(2010=100) Jul2015vs2014,percent
125.0 Composite Private Consumption
Index
A composite index representing private
120.0 Nonresident 53.1
consumption conditions. It comprises of 5
2014 components including Non-durables Index,
115.0 Semi-durables Index, Durables Index,
Services 8.6 Services Index, and Non-residents
expenditure Index. Prepared by the Bank of
110.0
2015 Thailand using 2010 as the base year and is
released monthly and each component was
105.0 Nondurables 4.0 seasonally adjusted. Chart A shows the
Composite Index movement over the latest
2 years. Chart B shows the annual change
100.0
of each component.
Semidurables 0.1
95.0 Latest development
Private consumption in overall is lagging
90.0 CompositeIndex -2.1
behind last years level despite big surge in
tourist spending.
85.0
Durables -13.0
80.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 16
Source: Bank of Thailand Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
PrivateInvestmentstartedtopickupandhasbeenabovelast
yearslevel
Chart1.15a PrivateInvestmentIndex Chart1.15b YonYchange

(2010=100) Jun2015vs2014,percent
Composite Private Investment
121.0
Index
A composite index representing private
DomesticMachinerysales*
13.8 investment conditions. It is constructed from
120.0 (2010prices,Baht)
5 components including Construction Area
2014 Permitted in Municipal Zone (9-month
moving average), Construction Material
119.0 CompositeIndex 0.5 Sales Index (3-month moving average),
Imports of Capital Goods at 2010 Prices,
2015 Domestic Machinery Sales at 2010 Prices,
118.0 ConstructionArea Domestic Car Sales Index for investment (3-
0.4
permitted(sqm) month moving average.). The index is
prepared by the Bank of Thailand, using
117.0 2010 as the base year. Chart A shows the
ConstructionMaterialSales Composite Index movement over the latest
-0.2
Index 2 years. Chart B shows the annual change
116.0
of each component.
ImportofCapitalGoods
(2010prices,Baht)
-6.0 Latest development
115.0
Private Investment started to pick up and
has been above last years level.
DomesticCommercialCar
-12.8
SalesIndex
114.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Note:(*)figuresare1monthdelayed ChartingASEAN 17
FDIvalueincreased57%inthefirst6monthsof2015
Chart5.14 ForeignDirectInvestment
MillionUSD
MonthlycumulativeFDI* Foreign Direct Investment
14,000 Foreign direct investment (FDI) reflects the
lasting interests of Non-residents of an
14,416 economy in a resident entity. A direct
2014 investor may invest in equity capital, lending
12,000
12,899 12,728 to affiliates, or reinvested earnings.
Investment in equity is treated as a direct
investment when the direct investors own 10
10,000 per cent or more of the voting shares for an
enterprise or the equivalent for an
unincorporated enterprise. Data is compiled
9,112 8,000 by BOT. The left chart shows the annual
8,547
figures. The right chart shows the
cumulative monthly figures for the current
6,000 year and the year before.
2015
Latest development
4,853 4,000 FDI value increased 57% in the first 6
months of 2015.
2,474 2,000
0
08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY J F M A M J J A S O N D
(*) Preliminary figures ChartingASEAN 18

Source: BOT Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOIsnetapplicationalmostdoubledin2014,butforthefirst5
monthsof2015,ithasalmostbeenwipedout
Chart5.15 BOInetapplicationofforeigndirectinvestment*
BillionBaht
BOI net application
Value is derived from total investment of all
projects which have foreign equity
1,023 participation (shown by registered capital
amount) of one particular nation or the sum
of all foreign registered capital from more
than two nations of at least 10%. The chart
shows the value of BOI net application for
projects defined as FDI.
648
Latest development
525 BOIs net application almost doubled in
2014, but for the first 5 months of 2015, it
396
has almost been wiped out, registering only
230
THB 14 billion.
236
14
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2014/5M 2015/5M
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

ChartingASEAN 19
Source: Board of Investment Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDIfromJapan,thebiggestsource,hasdeclinedsharplyin2014
Chart5.16 BOInetapplicationofFDI*breakdownbycountrygroup
Percentoftotal
11%
Others 27% 4%
21%
25%
34%
10% 2% BOI net application by country
6%
USA 2% 7% BOI net application of foreign direct
ANIEs 7% 10% 13% 1% investment projects breakdown by country.
10% FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has
ASEAN 8%
7% 7% declined sharply in 2014.
21%
Europe 7%
10%
2%
5%
17%
58% 54%
Japan 49%
38%
29%
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2015/5M

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
ChartingASEAN 20
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Propertyindicatorshavelargelydeclinedsofarthisyear
Chart1.16a YonYchange Chart1.16b MonMchange

First6 monthsof2015vsthoseof2014,percent JunvsMay2015,percent
Condounitregistered 13.0 -19.5

Key property indicators
Chart A compares key property indicators
during this year to the current month to
those in the same period of the previous
Newhousingunit year. Chart B compares key property
-2.9 -38.2
indicators in the current month to those of
the previous month.
Latest development
Property indicators have largely declined so
Constr.Areainmunicipal -9.1 5.6 far this year.
Valueoflandtransaction -10.8 17.2
ChartingASEAN 21
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 22
Improvedtradebalancesofarin2015isthecaseofimport
decliningmorethanexport
Chart5.03a Tradebalance*inTHB Chart5.03b Tradebalance*inUSD

First7months,BillionBaht First7months,BillionUSD
5,000 140
Trade balance
4,500 Foreign trade statistics refer to transactions
120 involving movements of goods out of or into
4,000 the Kingdom of Thailand over a specific time
100 period. It is not equal to the one shown on
3,500
the Balance of Payment chart due to a few
3,000
adjustments. The charts show the
2014 80 breakdown of Trade Balance into Export
2,500 and Import.
2015
-3.4% -7.4% 60 -4.7% -8.6%
2,000 Latest development
Improved trade balance in both THB and
1,500 40 USD terms in the first 7 months of 2015.
This is the case of import declining more
1,000 than export.
20
500
0 0
-500
Export Import = Trade -20
balance Export Import = Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments
(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion ChartingASEAN 23
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingAsean analysis
Exportdeclined3.4%inthefirst4monthsof2015,with
Petroleum,ChemicalsandAgriculturethemaindrags
Chart5.05a YTDannualchangeinExportinBaht Chart5.05b Sectoralcontributions
First7monthsof2015vsthoseof2014,percent Contributionstototalexportgrowth
Totalexport -3.4 Totalexport -3.4
Opticalinstru 12.4 Automotive 0.3
Jewellery 6.4 Machinery 0.2
Photoinstru 3.7 Jewellery 0.2 YTD change in Export by product
Machinery 2.9 Opticalinstru 0.1 The left chart shows the year-to-date
Othermanufacturing 2.5 Othermanufacturing 0.1 change in Baht term of export value by
Automotive Photoinstru product group. The right chart shows each
2.4 0.0
groups contribution to the total export
Forestry 0.9 Metal 0.0
growth.
Metal 0.2 Forestry 0.0
Electrical 0.1 Electrical 0.0
Latest development
Electronics -0.5 Footware 0.0 Export, in THB, decreased 3.4% in the first 7
Agroproducts -3.5 Reexports 0.0 months of 2015. The increase in Automotive
Apparels -5.9 Furniture 0.0 and Machinery export were the growth
Footware -6.7 Electronics -0.1 drivers while Petroleum, Chemicals and
Agriculture -6.7 Toiletries -0.1 Agriculture were the main drags to total
Toiletries -7.0 Aircrafts -0.1 export growth.
Furniture -8.9 Fishery -0.1
Aircrafts -9.0 Apparels -0.2
Petrochemical -9.6 Mining -0.3
Otherexport -14.3 Otherexport -0.3
Fishery -14.4 Agroproducts -0.4
Petroleum -19.2 Agriculture -0.5
Chemicals -20.3 Petrochemical -0.6
Reexports -27.7 Chemicals -0.8
Mining -52.0 Petroleum -0.9
ChartingASEAN 24
NAFTAistheonlygrowingmarketsforThaiexportsofarin2015
Chart5.07a Exportbycountry Chart5.07b ChangeinExport

PercentoftotalexportinTHBterm InTHBterm,First7monthsof2015vsthoseof2014
100% = 6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3 (Trillion)

NAFTA 7.2% Export destinations
The left chart shows Export value (in Baht
Restof 18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5 term) broken down by country of destination.
theworld
ASEAN -3.3% The right chart shows change in export
MiddleEast 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2 value to each destination.
10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.6
Japan
Restoftheworld -3.5% Latest development
10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3 NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai
EU 11.3
export in the first 6 months of 2015. Middle
11.4 11.5 12.0 East was the hardest hit market with export
NAFTA 11.7 11.1 Japan -5.7%
declining 14% from a year ago.
EastAsia 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3

20.4 EU -6.2%
exJapan
EastAsiaexJapan -7.0%
ASEAN 23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1
MiddleEast -13.8%
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ChartingASEAN 25
BigdecreaseinImportsofarin2015duemainlytodecreasein
fuelimport
Chart5.09a YTDannualchangeinImportinBaht Chart5.09b Sectoralcontributions

First7monthsof2015vsthoseof2014,percent Contributionstototalimportgrowth
Totalimport -7.4 Totalimport -7.4 YTD change in Import by product

class
The left chart shows the year-to-date
change (in Baht term) of import value by
Others 7.7 Others 0.6
product group. The right chart shows each
groups contribution to the total import
growth.
Consumergoods 5.0 Consumergoods 0.4
Latest development
Import has decreased 7% in the first 7
months of 2015, due mainly to the decrease
IntermediateNonfuel -0.2 IntermediateNonfuel -0.1 in Fuel import.
Capitalgoods -4.2 Capitalgoods -1.0
IntermediateFuel -33.3 IntermediateFuel -7.3
ChartingASEAN 26
Intermediategoodshasgainedmoresharethisyear
Chart5.08 Importbyeconomicclassification
PercentoftotalimportinBahtterm
100% = 5.9 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.4 4.0 (Trillion)
Others 10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2 8.1 8.8 Import composition

Import value (in Baht term) breakdown by
economic classification into Consumer
Capitalgoods 20.9 24.2 25.1 goods, Intermediate goods, Capital goods
21.3 24.4 23.3 and Others.
Latest development
Intermediate is the major class in Thailands
import, implying major portion of import is for
Intermediate 38.3 reproduction. It has gained more share so
NonFuel 44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7 40.7
far this year.
20.8 20.8 15.8

Intermediate Fuel 17.4 18.9 18.9
Consumergoods 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.6
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7MO
ChartingASEAN 27
Touristarrivalsbouncedbackinthe7months,increasing30%
fromlastyearslevel
Chart5.18 InternationalTouristArrivals
Millionvisits Monthlyarrivals
Millionvisits
3.0
2015
CAGR 26.5
Tourist arrivals
10.6% 24.8 2.5 Number of the international tourist arrivals
into Thailand. Prepared by Department of
22.4
Tourism using data from Immigration
Bureau, Police Department.
2.0
19.2
2014
1.5 Tourist arrivals bounced back in the 7
14.5 14.1 months, increasing 30% from last years
level.
11.7 11.5
1.0
10.0
0.5
0.0
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 28
Source: Department of Tourism Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
ChinaandMalaysiahavebeenthetwohighestgrowingmarkets
fortouristsin2015
Chart5.19a Chart5.19b
InternationalTouristArrivals 10HighestChangeinInternationalTouristArrivals
bycountryofnationality bycountryofnationality
Percentoftotal First7monthsof2015vsthoseof2014,Thousands
Restof China 2,458.2 Tourist arrivals by nationality

15.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9
Chart A shows the composition of
world
4.4 4.5 international tourist arrivals by their
4.8 Malaysia 765.8
Americas 5.3 5.0 nationalities grouped by region. Chart B
shows the top 10 highest change in arrivals
HongKong 191.8 by country and the percent of total arrival
23.8 24.8
25.3 change.
26.5
Europe 27.9 Taiwan 155.2
Latest development
Structure of tourist nationalities has changed
Korea 141.6
a bit over the years. East Asia has been the
largest group in the last six years and the
Vietnam 131.6 figure is increasing every year. China and
Malaysia have been the two highest growing
Singapore 131.3 markets for tourists in 2015.
59.9 58.8
East 53.8 56.0
51.2
Asia Japan 112.1
India 95.2
USA 57.6
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ChartingASEAN 29
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 30
Unemploymentratedecreasedto0.8%inJune
Chart2.08 Unemploymentrate Unemployment rate

Percent Unemployment rate calculated from labor
MonthlyAverage Force Survey conducted and compiled by
the National Statistical Office (NSO).
1.40
Unemployment rate equals unemployed
persons divided by total labor force.
1.83
Unemployed persons is defined as persons
1.20 with the age of 15 years and over who
during the week in which the survey is
1.51 2015 conducted, do not work, have no job,
1.49
1.00 business enterprise or farm of their own.
1.38 1.38 Persons in this category include those who
are looking for a job, applying for a job or
0.80 waiting to be called to work during the past
30 days prior to the interview date and those
1.04 who are not looking for work during the past
30 days prior to the interview date, but are
0.60
0.84 otherwise available for work during the 7
days prior to the interview date. Total labor
0.72 2014
0.68 0.66 force comprises current labor force and
0.40 seasonally inactive labor force.
Latest development
0.20 Unemployment rate decreased to 0.8% in
June.
0.00
05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 31
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandsunemploymentrateislowestcomparingtoother
leadingeconomies
Chart2.09 Unemploymentrate
Latest,percent
ThailandJun 0.8
SingaporeQ2 2.0
MalaysiaJun 3.1
HongKongJul 3.3
Unemployment rates in the world
A comparison of unemployment rates across
JapanJul 3.3 different countries (economies) compiled by
Vietnam2014 3.4 The Economist magazine.
TaiwanJul 3.7 Latest development

SouthKoreaJul 3.7 Thailands unemployment rate is the lowest
among leading economies. Euro area still
ChinaQ2 4.0
has the highest unemployment rate,
India2013 4.9 followed by Brazil.
USJul 5.3
RussiaJul 5.3
IndonesiaQ1 5.8
Pakistan2014 6.0
AustraliaJul 6.3
PhilippinesQ2 6.4
BrazilJul 7.5
EuroAreaJun 11.1
ChartingASEAN 32
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 33
NochangeininterestratesinthemarketinAugust
Chart3.01a BOTspolicyrate Chart3.01b BIBORovernightrate

2.50% 2.50%
2.25% 2.25% Interest rates

Chart A shows the Bank of Thailands policy
2.00% 2.00% rate (1-day repo rate) over the last 12
months. Chart B shows the Inter bank
1.75% 1.75% overnight rate over the last 12 months. Chart
C shows the minimum and maximum of the
1.50% 1.50% saving deposit rate over the last 12 months.
Chart D shows the minimum and maximum
1.25% 1.25%
Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-14 Aug-15 of commercial banks MLR over the last 12
months.
Latest development
Chart3.01c Savingdepositrate* Chart3.01d CommercialbankMLR* No change in interest rates in the market in
August. Its worth noting that the BOTs
10.00% 10.00% policy rate is at 1.50%, which is quite low.
Max This could limit the option to further
7.50% 7.50% stimulate growth through monetary policy
(by lowering interest rate further).
Min
5.00% 5.00%
Max
2.50% 2.50%
Min
0.00% 0.00%
Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-14 Aug-15
Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbranches ChartingASEAN 34
Governmentspendinginthefirst7monthsof2015increased12%
Chart MonthlycumulativeFiscalexpenditure
BillionBaht
2500
Government Spending
2000 2014 The current government is trying to boost
the economy by fiscal spending. In the first 7
months of 2015, government spending
increased 12% from the same period last
1500
year. While the effectiveness of such
program is still in doubt, we see bigger
spending from the government in the
calendar year of 2015.
1000
500
2015
0
D J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 35
Source:BankofThailand;ChartingAseananalysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 36
BusinessesandIndustriesweremorepessimisticinJuly
Chart1.18a BusinessSentimentIndex* Chart1.18b ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex**

Business and Thai Industries
100 200 Sentiment Indices
Chart A shows Business Sentiment Index
has been compiled with BOT survey data of
1,500 businesses. Index = 50 indicates that
business sentiment remains stable. Index >
Better Better 50 indicates that business sentiment has
improved. Index < 50 indicates that business
sentiment has worsened. Chart B shows
Thai Industries Sentiment Index, from The
Federation of Thai Industries survey of more
50 100 than 1,000 industrial enterprises. Index =
52.4
49.4 50.3 49.1
46.4 100 indicates that industries sentiment
45.2 88.9 87.7 86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0 remains stable. Index > 100 indicates that
industries sentiment has improved. Index <
100 indicates that industries sentiment has
Worse Worse worsened.
Latest development
Businesses and Industries were more
pessimistic in July 2015. Business
0 0
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sentiment Index dropped to 46.4 and the
Thai Industries Sentiment Index dropped to
Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: 83.0.
Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable
Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved
Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened
ChartingASEAN 37
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
ConsumerConfidencenosedivedinJuly
Chart1.17 ConsumerConfidenceIndex
100 100 100

Overall Onjob Onfutureincome
Consumer Confidence Index

Prepared by Ministry of Commerce through
monthly consumer survey nationwide. The
index ranges from 0 to 100. 50 means
consumer confidence is equal to those of
the prior month. Over 50 means consumer
Better Better Better
confidence is better than those of the prior
50 50 50 month. Under 50 means consumer
Worse Worse Worse confidence is worse than those of the prior
month.
Latest development
Consumer Confidence nosedived in July
with overall Consumer confidence index
dropping deep to 33.7.
0 0 0
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15
Note:(*)Theindexrangesfrom0to100
50meansconsumerconfidenceisequaltothoseofthepriormonth
Over50meansconsumerconfidenceisbetterthanthoseofthepriormonth
Under50meansconsumerconfidenceisworsethanthoseofthepriormonth
ChartingASEAN 38
Source: Ministry of Commerce Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 39
GDPgrowthprojectionsarelikelytobereviseddownfurtherafter
theBangkokbomb
Chart1.03a RealGDPgrowthprojections Chart1.03b RealGDPgrowthprojections

For2015,Annualpercentagechange For2016,Annualpercentagechange
6.00 6.00
Real GDP growth projections
Real GDP growth projections from Bank of
5.50 5.50 Thailand, National Economic and Social
Development Board (NESDB), Fiscal Policy
Office (FPO) and the weekly poll conducted
5.00 5.00 by the Economist magazine. The charts also
show growth projections as of past dates,
4.50 4.50
which highlight any significant change in
The Economist
poll projections from each of the forecasters.
NESDB The changes in projections normally reflect
4.00 4.00 the economic outlook as seen by each
The Economist
poll forecaster.
FPO BOT
3.50 3.50 Growth projections for the Thai
economy
3.00 3.00 FPO revised down its projected growth for
BOT 2015 to 3.0%. Consensus growth forecast is
now 3.0-3.5% for 2015 and 4.1% for 2016.
2.50 2.50
2.00 2.00
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15
Forecast as of, month ending Forecast as of, month ending
ChartingASEAN 40
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
GrowthforThailandisprojectedtobearoundthemiddleofthe
pack
Chart1.04a RealGDPgrowthprojections Chart1.04b RealGDPgrowthprojections

2015,Annual%change,asofAug31st 2015 2016,Annual%change,asofAug31st 2015
India 7.6 India 7.8

China 6.9 China 6.7 International real GDP growth
Philippines 6.6 Vietnam 6.5 projections
Real GDP growth projection consensus for
Vietnam 6.3 Philippines 6.4 major economies in the world as a result of
Pakistan 5.7 Malaysia 5.6 a weekly survey by the Economist
Malaysia 5.5 Indonesia 5.5 magazine. It offers a good comparison
across economies in the world.
Indonesia 4.9 Pakistan 4.7
Thailand 3.5 Thailand 4.1 Growth outlook for the Thai
Taiwan 3.4 SouthKorea 3.3 economy
Singapore 3.1 Singapore 3.2 According to the Economist poll, Thailands
GDP growth is expected to be 3.5% for 2015
SouthKorea 2.8 Australia 2.8 and 4.1% for 2016, around the middle when
Australia 2.4 Taiwan 2.7 compared to other major and emerging
economies.
US 2.4 US 2.7
HongKong 2.3 HongKong 2.1
EuroArea 1.4 EuroArea 1.7
Japan 0.9 Japan 1.6
Brazil -1.7 Brazil 0.6
Russia -3.6 Russia 0.4
ChartingASEAN 41
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 42
ThaieconomyisstillindeflationstateinAugust
Chart3.07a YoYchangeinCPI Chart3.07b YoYchangeinCPIbyproduct

Percent Aug2015,percent
1.50% Veg&fruit 8.5
Tobacco&alcohol 2.0
Consumer Price Index
Foodawayfromhome 1.8
CPI is the general price level of goods and
1.00%
Recreation&Education 1.3 services purchased by consumers.
Core* Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic
Medicalcare 0.7 Indices, Ministry of Commerce. Available in
0.50% various definitions and by product groups.
Preparedfoodathome 0.7 Change in CPI is normally used as main
indicator for inflation.
Apparelandfootware 0.5
0.00%
Rice 0.3 Latest development
In August 2015, Core inflation was slightly
Seasoning 0.3 lower while Headline CPI was still lower
-0.50% than a year ago, suggesting a deflation.
Housing&furnishing 0.3
Nonalcoholicbeverage 0.3
-1.00%
Meat -0.7
Headline Eggs&milk -2.6

-1.50%
Transport&Commu -7.6
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Energy -17.0
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy ChartingASEAN 43
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
AlongwithTaiwanandSingapore,Thailandisindeflationstate
Chart3.08 ConsumerPriceIndex
Annualpercentagechange
Latest 2015*
RussiaJul 15.6 14.8

BrazilJul 9.6 8.7
IndonesiaAug 7.2 6.3
IndiaJul 3.8 5.4
MalaysiaJul 3.3 2.6 Inflation in the world
HongKongJul 2.5 3.1 Change in Consumer Price Index across
major economies in the world. Also the
PakistanJul 1.8 4.1 projected CPI change for the full year by the
ChinaJul 1.6 1.5 Economist poll.
AustraliaQ2 1.5 1.7 Latest development

PhilippinesJul 0.8 2.6 Along with Taiwan and Singapore, Thailand
is in deflation state.
SouthKoreaAug 0.7 1.0
VietnamAug 0.6 2.8
JapanJul 0.3 0.7
EuroAreaAug 0.2 0.2
USJul 0.2 0.4
SingaporeJul -0.4 0.4
TaiwanJul -0.7 0.2
ThailandAug -1.2 0.8
Note: (*) The Economist Poll ChartingASEAN 44

Deepdeflationattheproducerlevel
Chart3.09a YoYchangeinPPI Chart3.09b YoYchangeinPPIbyproduct

Percent Aug2015,percent
Crop 5.9
3.0%
Pulp&paper 1.5
Textile 0.4
2.0% Producer Price Index
Nonmetallicmineral 0.3 Inflation at the producer level is measured
1.0% Mechinery 0.1 by a change in Producer Price Index.
Mechinery 0.1 Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic
Indices, Ministry of Commerce. The chart
0.0% Forestry 0.0 shows the changes of the overall PPI and
Leather&footware -0.1 also the PPI of each industry.
-1.0% Wood -0.1
Othermanugoods -0.2
Latest development
-2.0% Producer price level dropped from a year
Metal -0.4 ago, resulting in deflation. In August, the PPI
Food -0.5 dropped 3.8% from a year ago. PPI of
-3.0%
Energy -1.1 Petroleum products dropped 30.6%.
-4.0%
Electricalequip -2.2
Chemical -3.5
-5.0% Livestocks -3.8

Basicmetals -4.1
-6.0% Rubber&plastic -4.4
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Fishing -5.4
Petroleumproducts -30.6
ChartingASEAN 45
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 46
Banksloanisstillgrowingandliquidityisslightlysqueezed
Chart3.02a CommercialBanksLoan
THBbillion
11,600
11,400
11,200
Banks Loan and Loan-to-deposit
11,000 ratio
M-o-M Y-o-Y Commercial banks take deposits and give
10,800
+0.5% +4.6% out loans. Chart A shows the outstanding
10,600 loan by commercial banks in Thailand. Chart
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 B shows the commercial banks loan to
deposit ratio, a liquidity indicators in the
banking system.
Chart3.02b CommercialBanksLoan/Deposit*ratio
Percent Latest development
Banks loan increased 0.5% in June 2015.
100% Liquidity in the system remained abundant
97.7% 97.8% despite the Loan-to-Deposit ratio increasing
97.2%
96.4% 96.5% to 96.5%.
95.7% 95.7% 95.4%
94.9% 94.8% 94.5% 94.5%
95%
90%
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
ChartingASEAN 47
GrossNPLcontinuedtoriseinbothabsolutevalueand
percentageoftotalloaninthe2Q15
Chart3.03a TotalFinancialInstitutionsGrossNPLsOutstanding
BillionBaht
Non-performing loan
458 401 Gross NPLs: the outstanding amount of
380
317 270 267 278 299 312 loans classified as substandard, doubtful,
256
doubtful of loss, and loss. The chart shows
Gross Non-performing loan from all
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 Financial Institutions in Thailand, both in the
absolute and percentage of total terms.
Chart3.03b TotalFinancialInstitutionsGrossNPLsOutstanding Latest development

PercentageofTotalLoans Gross NPL continued to rise in 2Q15. The
absolute value increased from THB 299
billion to THB 312 billion or 2.29% to 2.38%
of the total loan.
7.31%
5.29% 4.85%
3.60%
2.75% 2.29% 2.38%
2.26% 2.16% 2.16%
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
ChartingASEAN 48
BankscapitalratiodecreasedslightlyinJunebutstillremained
high
Chart3.04 Capitalratioofallcommercialbanks*
%ofriskassets,atyearend MonthEnd
17.5%
16.1% 16.2%
15.8% 15.7% Capital ratio of all commercial
14.9% 14.8% 17.0% banks
14.0% 2015 Capital funds of commercial banks mean
13.9%
13.3% stockholders equity. Risk assets mean
2014
12.4% summary of all risk-weighted assets
16.5%
including contingent liabilities converted into
assets and weighted by risk ratio. The
higher the ratio the safer and more stability
16.0% in the banking system.
Latest development
Banks capital ratio decreased slightly to
15.5% 16.6% in June but still remained high.
15.0%
14.5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 J F M A M J J A S O N D
Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbranches ChartingASEAN 49
Thailandsrealinterestrateisaround1%
Chart3.05 Realinterestrates
Percent,asofAug31st 2015
3Mriskfreeinterestrates Expected2015inflation* = Realinterestrates

Brazil 14.2 8.7 5.5
Russia 12.5 14.8 -2.3
Indonesia 7.5 6.3 1.2 Real interest rates in the world
Chart shows one way to calculate real
India 7.4 5.4 2.0 interest rates across different currencies and
Pakistan economies in the world. Todays Real
7.0 4.1 2.9
interest rates = Nominal interest rates
Vietnam 4.6 2.8 1.8 (represented here by 3-month risk free
interest rates) expected inflation.
Malaysia 3.7 2.6 1.1
China 3.1 1.5 1.6 Latest development
There are quite a few countries with
Australia 2.3 1.7 0.6
negative real interest rates. Countries with
Philippines 1.8 2.6 -0.8 negative real interest rates seems to have
low nominal interest rates to begin with.
Thailand 1.7 0.8 0.9 Thailands real interest rate is around 1%.
SouthKorea 1.6 1.0 0.6
Taiwan 0.9 0.2 0.7
HongKong 0.4 3.1 -2.7
US 0.3 0.4 -0.1
Japan 0.1 0.7 -0.6
EuroArea 0.0 0.2 -0.2
SETindexdecreased4%inAugustamidanotherroundofbig
foreignsellout
Chart3.06a MonthlyperformanceofSETindex Chart3.06c ChangesinceDec31st 2014
Percentchangefrompriormonth,atmonthend Percent,asofAug26th 2015
France(CAC40) 5.3%
1.4%
0.6% Japan(Nikkei225) 5.3%
Pakistan(KSE) 4.4%
Germany(DAX) 2.0% Stock market performance
-2.0%
Chart A shows the monthly performance of
-4.3% -4.0% EuroArea(FTSEEuro100) 1.8% the SET index. Chart B shows the
-5.1%
China(SSEB,$terms) -0.8% performance, change in the index level, of
US(NAScomp) -0.8% key stock markets in the world, since the
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 end of last year.
SKorea(KOSPI) -1.1%
Australia(AllOrd.) -3.9% Latest development
US(S&P500) -5.8% SET index decreased 4% in August amid
Chart3.06b Cumulativenetforeignfundflow India(BSE) -6.5%
another round of big foreign sell out. Along
SET&MAI,BillionBaht,Monthend with other markets in the region and the
US(DJIA) -8.6% world, SET has declined heavily year-to-
UK(FTSE100) -8.9% date.
0.0
China(SSEA) -9.5%
-20.0
Malaysia(KLSE) -10.3%
-40.0 HK(HangSeng) -10.7%
-60.0 Thailand(SET) -11.9%
-80.0 Singapore(STI) -14.6%

Taiwan(TWI) -17.1%
-100.0
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15 Indonesia(JSX) -18.9%
ChartingASEAN 51
Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingAsean analysis Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capturing The Vietnam Growth Opportunity
Download the presentation Contact Information

FinAdvice Department Private Fund
http://goo.gl/6FZNS9 Tel 02-635-1700 ext. 757, 771, 777
pfadmin@phillip.co.th , fa@phillip.co.th
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 53
HighergovernmentdeficitaspercentageofGDPin2014
Chart4.1 GovernmentbudgetandcashbalanceaspercentageofnominalGDP
Percent Budget balance vs GDP
Overall Cash balances are the sum of
Budget cash balance budget and non budget cash balances.
Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) Budget cash balances are the government
revenues net of the government
expenditures. Non budget cash balances
include changes in governmental agencies
deposit accounts and net positions of
1.4%
1.1% governments revolving funds. The chart
shows both Overall Cash balances and
Budget cash balances as percentage of
nominal GDP.
-0.3% Latest development

-0.5%-0.6% Government budget and cash balances
-0.7%
-0.9% have been in deficit in 7 of the last 10 years.
-1.1%-1.1%
The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5
-1.7% years have been huge. The worst deficits in
-2.0% -2.0% relative to GDP were in 2009 (calendar
-2.2%
-2.4%-2.5% year), with budget deficit of 4%. Huge
-2.6%
government budget deficit in 2012, only
slightly better than in 2009. Higher budget
-3.6% and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in
-4.0% -4.1% 2014.
-4.4%
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ChartingASEAN 54
Budgetdeficitin2015hassofardoubledthoseoflastyear
Chart4.2 Governmentbudgetbalance
BillionBaht
MonthlycumulativeBudgetbalance
(BillionBaht)
50.0 Budget balance
2,075 2,158 2,076 Budget balances are the government
1,902 revenues net of the government
Revenue 1,751 0.0 expenditures. The left chart shows
1,455 1,498 1,484
1,390 government revenue, government
1,241 expenditure and budget balance (line). The
-50.0 right chart shows monthly cumulative of
budget balance of the last two years.
110
-36 -75 -27 -100.0
-174 -100 Latest development
Budget -267 -296
-364 -414 2014 Government budget balances have been in
balance
-150.0 deficit in 9 of the last 10 years. The
magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years
2015 have been huge. The worst deficits in
-1,277 -1,280 -200.0 absolute term were in 2012 (calendar year),
with budget deficit of 414 Billion Baht. In
-1,629 -1,598
2014, Budget deficit increased from 2013.
Expenditure -1,849 -1,825
-1,930 -250.0 Budget deficit in 2015 has so far doubled
those of last year.
-2,424 -2,371
-2,489 -300.0
-350.0
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY J F M A M J J A S O N D
ChartingASEAN 55
Sizablebudgetandcashdeficitinthefirst7months
Chart4.3 Governmentcashbalance
BillionBaht
Budget cash balance
Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) Budget and Cash balance
Overall Cash balances are the sum of
110 budget and non budget cash balances.
88 Budget cash balances are the government
revenues net of the government
expenditures. Non budget cash balances
include changes in governmental agencies
deposit accounts and net positions of
-27 governments revolving funds. The chart
-36 -45
shows both Overall Cash balances and
-75 Budget cash balances in absolute term.
-100 -96 -95 -97
-144 -148 Latest development

-174 2012 saw the biggest budget and cash
deficit in THB term. Apart from 2010, Budget
-242 cash balance and Overall cash balance are
-266 -267 typically in line with each other. Sizable
-296 -305 budget and cash deficit in the first 7 months.
-364
-401
-414
-466
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY '15/7mo
ChartingASEAN 56
Thailandsbudgetdeficitisexpectedtobearound2%ofGDP
Chart4.4 GovernmentBudgetbalanceaspercentageofGDP
2015*,percent
SouthKorea 0.4
HongKong 0.0 Budget balance in the world
Singapore -0.7 Consensus projection of Government
budget balance as percentage of GDP
Taiwan -1.1
across major countries in the world for the
Philippines -1.9 current year. The data is compiled by the
Indonesia -2.0 Economist poll.
Thailand -2.0
Latest development
EuroArea -2.1 Most governments in the world are expected
Australia -2.4 to have budget deficits in 2013, except
South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and
US -2.6
Russia. The magnitude of the expected
China -2.7 budget deficits are greatest in US and
Russia -2.8 Japan, the leading economies in the world.
Thailand budget deficit is expected to be
India -4.1 around 2% of GDP.
Malaysia -4.1
Vietnam -4.2
Pakistan -5.1
Brazil -5.8
Japan -6.8

AslightincreaseinPublicdebtsofarin2015
Chart4.5a CompositionofPublicdebt Chart4.5b CompositionofPublicdebt

THBTrillion AspercentageofnominalGDP
6.0 45% Composition of Public debt
Public debt includes direct government debt,
40% Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss, Debt
Prefunding, Non-Financial State Enterprise
5.0
Debt, Special Financial Institutions
Publicdebtfrom 35% Guaranteed Debt, and others. Chart A
Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises shows the level of debt in THB. Chart B
4.0
StateEnterprises 30% shows the level as percentage of nominal
GDP.
25%
BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss Latest development
3.0 BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss
&Prefundingdebt Public debt as percentage of GDP increased
&Prefundingdebt 20%
significantly since 2009 then dropped
slightly in 2011 before increasing again.
2.0 15% Public debt increased in absolute term and
relative to GDP in 2012 and 2013, due
DirectGovernmentdebt 10% largely to direct government debt. A slight
DirectGovernmentdebt increase in Public debt so far in 2015, at
1.0
THB 5.7 trillion, or 42% of GDP. Majority of
5% the public debt is domestic based.
0.0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15
Externaldebt
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%
aspercentoftotal
ChartingASEAN 58
Source: Public Debt Management Office Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandspublicdebtisnothighcomparedtointernational
standard
Chart4.6 Publicdebtintheworld
PercentageofGDP,2014est. Intl ruleof
thumb
1Japan 228 39Unitedstates 71 <60%of
2Zimbabwe 181 40Croatia 70 GDP
3Greece 175 43Israel 67
4Lebanon 142 48Uruguay 65
5Italy 134 50Pakistan 64 Public debt in the world
6Jamaica 132 56Brazil 59 Public debt as percentage of nominal GDP,
7Portugal 131 63Malaysia data is compiled by CIA.
54
8Cyprus 119 67India 51
9Ireland 119 71Thailand
Latest development
49
High public debt ratio in most developed
10Grenada 110 72Philippines 48
countries. Thailands public debt ratio, at
11Singapore 107 78Laos 46 49% of GDP in 2014, is below international
12Belgium 102 80Vietnam 46 rule of thumb of 60%. Japan has the highest
13Eritrea 101 93Mexico 41 public debt level compared to GDP, at
14Barbados 101 96Sweden 40 228%. Majority of countries with high public
15Spain 98 101Argentina 38 debt level comes from Europe, leading by
16France 96 103SouthKorea 37 Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.
17Iceland 94 105Hongkong 37
18Egypt 94 108Turkey 37
19Puertorico 94 126Nepal 30
20Canada 93 129Norway 30
21Bhutan 92 133Indonesia 24
22Jordan 90 137China 22
23Antiguaandbarbuda 89 147Russia 13
24UK 87 149Nigeria 12
25Caboverde 86 164Saudiarabia 2
ChartingASEAN 59
Source: CIA fact book Copyright ChartingASEAN. All rights reserved. www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENTSUMMARY
drags
Growth
theywereayearago
Stability
ChartingASEAN 60
PositiveBalanceofPaymentsofarin2015,thankstotrade
surplus
TradeBalance(F.O.B) Balance of payment
decomposition
29.8 Balance of Payments is a summary of
Chart5.01 BalanceofPaymentdecomposition 24.6 economic transactions between residents and
nonresidents that takes place during a specific
BillionUSD 17.0 18.0
time period. Balance of Payments include
Trade balance, Net services income &
6.0 6.7
transfers, Capital and financial account and
Net errors & omissions. Trade balance refers
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo to net export (export less import) of goods. Net
Services are the net result of foreign trade
31.3
Netserviceincome&transfer related to services, defined as the net export
(export less import) of services. Income
consists of compensation of employees,
investment income, and donation and grant.
-3.5
-8.1 -7.5 Capital Account encompasses receipts and
-9.1 -10.4 payments pertaining to (1) transfers in cash or
+ -19.7 in kind, and (2) acquisition and disposal of
non-produced, non-financial assets. Financial
5.3 5.6 Account refers to net flows of financial
1.2 transactions between residents and
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo nonresidents. Net errors & omissions reflects
the discrepancy between the overall balance
-1.2
-5.0
NetCapitalMovement+errorsandomissions and the sum of each sub-account of the
balance of payments.
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo
6.7 Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015
of USD 5.6 billion, thanks to trade surplus.
-7.7 -2.6
-8.9
-15.4
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

ChartingASEAN 61
StrongAsianexportenginesreflectinginhugecurrentaccount
surplus
Chart5.02 CurrentAccountbalance
As%of2015GDP* Last12months,USDBillion
SingaporeQ2 21.3% 69.5

Current Account Balance
TaiwanQ2 12.8% 72.8 Current Account represents the net sum of
SouthKoreaJun 7.6% 102.2
trade in goods and services, primary income
and secondary income. The left chart shows
RussiaQ2 5.0% 68.7 the consensus projection of 2012 Current
PhilippinesMar 4.1% 14.5 Account Balance as percentage of GDP by
the Economist poll. The right chart shows
MalaysiaQ2 3.4% 8.8 last 12-month Current Account Balance of
ChinaQ2 3.0% 291.4 major economies in the world, in absolute
dollar term
HongKongQ1 2.8% 5.9
Vietnam2013 2.7% 9.5 Latest development
Countries that are expected to have huge
JapanJun 2.6% 97.1 Current Account surplus are mostly from
EuroAreaJun 2.5% 317.6 Emerging Asian economies. US is still
expected to be net spenders. Thailands
ThailandQ1 2.4% 16.1
Current Account balance in 2015 is
PakistanQ2 -0.6% -2.2 expected to be 2.4% of GDP.
IndiaQ1 -1.2% -27.5
USQ1 -2.6% -406.4
IndonesiaQ2 -2.6% -21.6
AustraliaQ1 -3.1% -41.9
BrazilJul -4.1% -89.4

Externaldebtdecreasedslightlysofarin2015
Chart5.10a ExternalDebtLevel
BillionUSD
External Debt
External debt refers to the remaining
130.7 139.9 140.7 138.0 outstanding portion of liabilities (excluding
100.6 104.3 equity) which residents have over
69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3
nonresidents of an economy. Prepared by
the Bank of Thailand and released quarterly.
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q Chart A shows external debt level in USD
term. Chart B shows external debt level as
percentage of GDP.
Chart5.10b ExternalDebtas%ofGDP Latest development

External debt level decreased slightly to
USD 138 Billion at the end of 1Q15.
External debt as percentage of GDP
decreased slightly to 33.7%.
38.5% 38.0% 38.2%
35.4% 35.2% 33.7% 34.5% 33.7%
31.4% 28.8%
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
ChartingASEAN 63
Externaldebtstructurehascontinuedtoshifttowardmorelong
termdebt
Chart5.11a Externaldebtbreakdown Chart5.11b Externaldebtbreakdown

Privatevs Public LongTermvs ShortTerm
Private Long term

Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities Short term
External debt composition

Breakdown of external debt. Chart A shows
16% 18% 18% 18%
20% the external debt breakdown by borrowers.
Chart B shows the external debt breakdown
43% 40% 39% by maturity.
45% 44%
Latest development
External debt structure has continued to shift
toward more long-term debt, which lowers
the risk of not having enough foreign
exchange to service external debt.
84% 82% 82% 82%
80%
57% 60% 61%

55% 56%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q
ChartingASEAN 64
Capabilitytorepayexternaldebtimprovedslightlysofarin2015
Chart5.12a Internationalreserves Chart5.12b Debtserviceratio*

As%ofSTexternaldebt Percent
External Debt repayment
capability
A look at the countrys capabilities of
370% servicing the external debt. Chart A shows
340% the countrys international reserves as
4.9% percentage of short-term external debt.
312% 4.7% 4.7%
292% Chart B shows the external debt service
279% 277% 4.2% ratio (Debt service payment / Export of
4.0% goods and services).
3.4%
Latest development
International reserves (as % of ST external
debt) is still at healthy level (292%). Debt
service ratio increased to 4.9% in 1Q15. All
in all, capability to repay external debt is not
yet a concern at the moment.
10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/1Q 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/1Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services ChartingASEAN 65
NetInternationalreservesdecreasedslightlyin2015butstill
consideredexcessive
Chart5.13a Internationalreserveslevel*
Attheendofperiod,BillionUSD
International reserves
International reserve assets refer to external
assets that are held or controlled by central
bank and are readily available for immediate
uses, for instance, in financing payment
191.7 206.4 205.8 190.2 180.2
154.1 174.6 imbalances or in implementing exchange
106.5 118.0 rate policy. The figures also include the net
73.9 forward position (future assets/liabilities
arising from currency forward contracts
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jul-15 between BOT and the market). Chart A
shows international reserves level in US$
term. Chart B shows as number of months
Chart5.13b Internationalreservesasnumberofmonthsofimport** that it can finance import.
Latest development
International reserves in US$ term have
13.8
12.6 been decreasing since its peak in 2011. So
10.8 far in 2015, the reserves decreased slightly
9.9 9.5 9.7 but the number of months that it can finance
9.1 9.1
7.9 import remained at 9.7 months, which is
6.9
considered excessive.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jul-15
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position

(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months ChartingASEAN 66
THBdepreciated1.4%inAugust
Chart5.17a NominalEffectiveExchangeRate Chart5.17b YoYchangeinFXrate*

2007=100 Percentagechangeinavg.sellingrateasofAug31st 2015
MYR8.7172 18.1
Exchange rates
114.0
Bahtappreciates AUD26.0602 15.7 Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER)
112.0 has been constructed from the weighted
MXN2.1507 14.0 average of bilateral exchange rates of the
baht vis--vis Thailands 23 major trading
110.0 IDR2.7164 8.5
partners and trade competitors. The weight
108.0 EUR40.6272 4.4 of each currency varies according to how
MoM important the country is as a trading partner
JPY29.908 4.0 and trade competitor. An increase in NEER
1.4% 106.0
KRW0.0305 3.6
refers to an appreciation. Chart B shows the
104.0 year-on-year change of average selling
SGD25.6825 0.6 rates of selected currencies.
YoY
102.0
+2.0% INR0.5759 -1.9
Bahtdepreciates Latest development
100.0 TWD1.1134 -3.6 Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 decreased 1.4% in August. Over the last 12
GBP55.7311 -4.3 months THB appreciated 2% against key
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against PHP0.7816 -4.7
currencies.
those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers
VND0.0016 -6.3
USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per
100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, CNY5.6752 -7.3
MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso,
USD36.0277 -10.9
IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,
KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, Baht depreciates Baht appreciates
MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
ChartingASEAN 67
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ChartingASEAN All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced,
without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingASEAN.
The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but
cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and
recommendations that ChartingASEAN delivers will be based on information
gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy
we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingASEAN can accept
no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may
subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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Charting

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate ChartingASEAN 6

Chart1.06a Realgrowthbysector,2Q15 Chart1.06b Sectoralcontributions,2Q15

Chart1.08a Realgrowthbyexpenditure,2Q15 Chart1.08b ExpenditureContributions,2Q15

X(services) 25.1 GDP 2.8 Source of Growth Expenditure

Chart1.11a YonYchangeinMPIbysector Chart1.11b MonMchangeinMPIbysector

Chart1.12a OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Chart1.12b Capacityutilizationratebysector

Chart1.14a CompositePrivateConsumptionIndex Chart1.14b YonYchange

Chart1.15a PrivateInvestmentIndex Chart1.15b YonYchange

(*) Preliminary figures ChartingASEAN 18

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2014/5M 2015/5M

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2015/5M

Chart1.16a YonYchange Chart1.16b MonMchange

Condounitregistered 13.0 -19.5

Valueoflandtransaction -10.8 17.2

Chart5.03a Tradebalance*inTHB Chart5.03b Tradebalance*inUSD

Chart5.07a Exportbycountry Chart5.07b ChangeinExport

100% = 6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3 (Trillion)

EastAsia 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3

Chart5.09a YTDannualchangeinImportinBaht Chart5.09b Sectoralcontributions

Totalimport -7.4 Totalimport -7.4 YTD change in Import by product

Capitalgoods -4.2 Capitalgoods -1.0

IntermediateFuel -33.3 IntermediateFuel -7.3

100% = 5.9 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.4 4.0 (Trillion)

Others 10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2 8.1 8.8 Import composition

20.8 20.8 15.8

Consumergoods 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.6

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7MO

Restof China 2,458.2 Tourist arrivals by nationality

Chart2.08 Unemploymentrate Unemployment rate

TaiwanJul 3.7 Latest development

Chart3.01a BOTspolicyrate Chart3.01b BIBORovernightrate

2.25% 2.25% Interest rates

Chart1.18a BusinessSentimentIndex* Chart1.18b ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex**

100 100 100

Consumer Confidence Index

Chart1.03a RealGDPgrowthprojections Chart1.03b RealGDPgrowthprojections

Chart1.04a RealGDPgrowthprojections Chart1.04b RealGDPgrowthprojections

India 7.6 India 7.8

Chart3.07a YoYchangeinCPI Chart3.07b YoYchangeinCPIbyproduct

1.50% Veg&fruit 8.5

Headline Eggs&milk -2.6

RussiaJul 15.6 14.8

AustraliaQ2 1.5 1.7 Latest development

Note: (*) The Economist Poll ChartingASEAN 44

Chart3.09a YoYchangeinPPI Chart3.09b YoYchangeinPPIbyproduct

-5.0% Livestocks -3.8

Chart3.03b TotalFinancialInstitutionsGrossNPLsOutstanding Latest development

3Mriskfreeinterestrates Expected2015inflation* = Realinterestrates

-80.0 Singapore(STI) -14.6%

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-0.3% Latest development

-144 -148 Latest development

Note: (*) The Economist Poll ChartingASEAN 57

Chart4.5a CompositionofPublicdebt Chart4.5b CompositionofPublicdebt

10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/7mo

SingaporeQ2 21.3% 69.5

Note: (*) The Economist Poll ChartingASEAN 62

Chart5.10b ExternalDebtas%ofGDP Latest development

Chart5.11a Externaldebtbreakdown Chart5.11b Externaldebtbreakdown

Private Long term

External debt composition

Chart5.03a TradebalanceinTHB Chart5.03b TradebalanceinUSD