Tayko Case (Logistic Regression and Multiple Linear Regression)

DATE OF SUBMISSION-01-01-2017

Tayko Case

Logistic Regression to choose Prospective Buyers:

Dataset given is already been partitioned into Training (800), Validation (700), and Test
(500) samples.
Data from the Tayko case is presented and model is trained for the training and test samples
(1300).
Validation data is later on used to estimate how well the model is trained.
Results obtained:
For Training
Pred-0 Pred-1
Actual-0 554 123
Actual-1 101 522

For Training
Accurac
Correct 1076 y 83%
Wrong 224

For Validation
Pred-0 Pred-1
Actual-0 249 74
Actual-1 75 302

For Validation
Accurac
Correct 551 y 79%
Wrong 149

This freshly-developed model then can be applied to the real-world data and results are
obtained,

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC)

A standard technique for summarizing classifier performance over a range of trade-offs
between true positive (TP) and false positive (FP) error rates.
ROC is a plot of sensitivity, that is the ability of the model to predict an event correctly.

ROC curve obtained:

 ROC
700
600
500
400
True Positive 300
200
100
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

False Positive

Lift Curve for Logistic Regression Model:

T_Lift
700
600
500
400

Successes 300
200
100
0

Attempts

Multiple linear regression to predict spending of each buyer:

Multiple Linear Regression Results: -
Regression Output (done on Training Dataset)
 o Adjusted R Square: 57%
o Significance F is very less

Lift Curve Done on Expected Spending

Here, first adjustment for the probability is done, then predicted spending is
multiplied as per MLR and expected spending is obtained. Then sorting is done
on expected spending.
Comparing with no-model case gives lift. Plotting it against number of customers
gives lift curve.