Me 582 Class Intro

ME582 Reliability EngineeringIntroduction
ME 582
Spring 2006
Jim Breneman
Ken Devins
Dave McDermott
Jim Breneman
weibullman@comcast.net
jeb 1
Course outline
Jim January 25, 2006: Introduction and course outline, Probability Background
Jim February 1, 2006: Probability & Reliability distributions(Binomial, Poisson)
Jim February 8, 2006: Reliability distributions (Exponential, Weibull)
Jim February 15,2006: Reliability Distributions continuedWeibull
Jim February 22,2006: Reliability Modelingparallel, series, redundant, standby systems
Dave March 1, 2006: FME(C)A
Ken March 8, 2006: Reliability Program Planning/Reliability Allocations and Predictions
Dave March 15, 2006: Reliability Development and Qualification Testing ,including FRACAS(1st Problem set
due)
March 22,, 2006 : Spring Break
Jim March 29, 20065: Monte Carlo simulation (Project outline due)
Ken April 5 , 2006: Reliability/Cost/Warranty modeling

Jim April 12,2006 : Taguchi DOX and the link to Quality Engineering
Dave April 19, 2006: System Safety Analysis and link to Reliability (Fault Tree Analysis, Hazard analysis)
Ken April 26, 2006 : Maintainability & Human reliability (2nd Problem set due)
All May 3 , 2006: Presentation of projects Last day for project turn-in
All May 10,, 2006: Presentation of projects Last day for project turn-in
-
Jim Breneman
jeb 2 Text: Practical Reliability Engineering, Patrick OConnor, 4thEd
Course Requirements
Class Grade: A: 90-100
B: 80-89
C: 70-79
D:<70
Two sets of problem submittals during the semester, plus Final project.
Each set of problems counts 33%, Final project counts 34%.
Each project will be turned in NLT May 10,, 2006. In addition to project writeup, there will be a 15 minute
presentation of the project by each student, followed by questions/discussion.
Final Project: A significant use of reliability techniques demonstrating a grasp of material in the course The
Project outline is due March 291.
If a student does not have a project one will be assigned.
Presentation of Project Outline(Powerpoint--20 minutes maximum):

1. Title (with ME582 and students name & date)
2. Description of Project/Background (~2 slides)
3. Description of methods
4. Description of analysis (as many slides as necessary)
5. Conclusions
Each non-presenting student will have comment cards to judge:

1. Clarity of problem statement
2. Explanation of results
3. Completeness of results
Jim Breneman
jeb 3
Background...
Everyone has a personal concept of reliability.

We think of our automobile & home appliances as being
dependable, trustworthy, consistent, ... and we mentally
assign some degree of reliance to them.
More formally, reliability engineering is the assurance
science that provides engineering proof of ability for
continued performance of the engineered product.
This includes in conceptual design, full scale design,
manufacturing, test, production and field support.-
Jim Breneman
jeb 4
Where Reliability Engineering came from...
During the expansion of the aircraft industry after WW I the fact that
an aircraft engine might fail was partly instrumental in the
development of the multi-engined aircraft.
In the 1930s reliability (or unreliability) was expressed in terms of an
average number of failures per unit time or as a mean failure rate for
an aircraft.
Mathematical reliability modeling began in the 1940s in Germany
during the development of the V-1 rocket.. Since the the first rockets
were 100% UNRELIABLE the German mathematician Robert Lsser
developed the concept that a series system reliability was equal to the
product of its component reliabilities. Hence the reliability of the
individual components must be much higher than the system
reliability.
A1 A2 A3 A4 AN
where Reliabilitysys=A1xA2xA3xA4x. xAN

Jim Breneman
jeb 5
Where Reliability Engineering came from, continued
In the US during the 1940s improving reliability became an extension of

quality. Better design, stronger materials, harder and smoother wear
surfaces, advanced inspection instruments were used to extend the useful
life of the part or assembly. Other advances included the beginning of
Design for maintenance accessibility, and most notably management
interest and enthusiasm in developing sampling plans for inspection,
control charts for high production machine tools, supplier quality
levels as well as supplier incentives for the delivery of higher quality
complex products.
60% of the airborne equipment shipped to Far East in WWII arrived
damaged; 50% of the spares and equipment in storage became
unserviceable before usage.
60-75% of radio vacuum tubes in communications equipment at this time
were failing sparking the development of solid-state electronics.
Jim Breneman
jeb 6
In the 1950s:
increased importance of safety especially in aerospace & nuclear fields.
(in 1950 DOD established an Ad Hoc Group on Reliability; later made
permanent as the Advisory Group on the Reliability of Electronic
Equipment (AGREE))
began to use failure rate, life expectancy, design adequacy, success
prediction
during Korean War DOD found that it cost $2 per year to maintain every
$1 in electronics hence wiser to design for reliability than to repair
equipment after failure.
began to study human error reliability
RAND Corporation produces study that summarizes statistical theories
and techniques applicable to reliability and leads RCA to establish an
organized program for the reliability discipline.
(Nov 1954) 1st National Symposium on Reliability and Quality Control
was held and published proceedings.
Jim Breneman
jeb 7
In the 1950s(continued):
(July 1955) IEEE(then IRE) initiated the Reliability & Quality Control Society
First commercial textbook on reliability published by McGraw-Hill.
(Reliability Factors for Ground Electronic Equipment, Keith Henney, editor, 1956)
(Nov 1956) RCA publishes 1st report on failure rates and reliability data.
(Jan 1957) USAF issues 1st military reliability spec.
(Aug 1957) Bell Aircraft Corporation, Space Flight Division, issues on of the
1st reliability handbooks in aerospace industry.
(1958) 28% of all US satellite launchings were successful (today this is >93%)
(1959) US passenger car warranties were for 90 days or 4000 miles. Today
these warranties are typically for 7 years or 70,000 mile, some longer.
(Oct 1959) the interagency Data Exchange Program (IDEP) established. This
was later extended to Government-industries Data Exchange Program
(GIDEP).
Modular electronic replacement starts.
Jim Breneman
jeb 8
Progress made in tube reliability:
two tubes were combined in one envelope
tubes were made smaller, with fewer internal connections
some tubes soldered in place getting rid of unreliable connections.
Germanium transistors starting emerging (but with their own reliability problems
current leakage with temperature, reliability drop off with higher temperature).
Hermetically sealed relays (hence no air contamination)
Waloddi Weibulls hallmark paper(1951)
(Weibull, Waloddi, A Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability, Journal
of Applied Mechanics, 1951.)
Jim Breneman
jeb 9
In the 1960s:
based on man-rated rocket development, as well as ICBM development,
effort was applied to both component and system level functional testing.
Excellent records kept of each failure and thorough investigations made to
correct deficiencies. (modern day FRACAS).
System analysis utilizing reliability block diagrams.. Which led to the
development of Fault Tree Analysis(originated by H.A. Watson of Bell
labs in 1961).
Techniques of FMECA, Weibull analysis coming into use..
Human performance database started.
First textbook combining statistics and reliability engineering.
(D.N. Chorafas, Statistical Processes and Reliability Engineering, 1960)
(1961) Igor Bazovsky publishes first comprehensive textbook on
reliability engineering.
(Igor Bazovsky, Reliability Theory and Practice, Prentice-Hall, 1961)
(1963) University of Arizona (Tucson) initiates reliability engineering
courses.
Jim Breneman
jeb 10
in electronics:
use of semiconductors in the automobile engine compartment(generators
converted to alternators)
silicon integrated device technology
NASA publication Reliability Abstracts and Technical Reviews
Mil-Hdbk-217, Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment
Jim Breneman
jeb 11
In the 1970s:
Reliability & Safety trade studies done as part of a new design
field failure analyses performed to aid in the fix of field problems.
Sensitivity analyses, risk-cost-benefit analyses
IEEE initiates the IEEE Reliability Society
MIL-STD-217D Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment issued
Sept 1978.
Jim Breneman
jeb 12
In the 1980s:
MIL-STD-217E Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment issued
Oct 1986.
Draft of MIL-STD-781D Reliability Design Quantification and
Production Acceptance Test issued Aug 1983.
DOD & NASA emphasis on Safety, Reliability, Maintainability & Quality
Assurance (after Challenger).
Taguchi design of experiments
computerization of Fault Tree technique on PC platforms.
Auto industry (under intense competition from Japan) cuts back in
reliability, maintainability area to save $$.
Combined reliability, maintainability, cost computer models developed.
Computing capability:
PC reliability was higher, price kept going down, capacity kept going up
Emphasis on Human reliability after Three Mile Island (1979)
Jim Breneman
jeb 13
In the 1990s:
Auto industry , realizing the link of reliability with warranty costs,
reestablishes reliability discipline(Ford, GM, Chrysler).
Software reliability recognized
IEEE subcommittee formed 1990
Bell labs adopted Software reliability best practices(1992)
Reliability, maintainability, safety and quality become integrated into
design process (Integrated Product Development).
Computing capability:
PC reliability was higher, price kept going down, capacity kept going up
Maintainability is increasing
Field data still (as always) a mess.
Jim Breneman
jeb 14
Todays mantra: better, faster, cheaper
Project
Management
Experience
Design
Technology verification
readiness x Unproven team
level(TRL) 1 to 3 x Test only
Lower x
xStrong lessons
learned activity Lower
risk x
5 to 6
risk
Proven team
Existing
x x x Analysis & test
Single string
Complexity x
Redundant
component x Lowest xS B
x
COTS
x EEE parts
level test Risk
x x Independent V&V
Component level test(s) x
SMA oversight
x SMA insight x Embedded verification

& validation
Supplier ISO
9000 only
x Test only
x
Fully integrated x Pig in a poke
testing only x Software
Safety &
Mission verification &
Integration Assurance validation Jim Breneman
jeb 15 and Test Involvement
Reliability Education major schools
USAF Institute of Technology- initiated Masters degree in System
Reliability Engineering 1962.
US Naval post-graduate school- began teaching product assurance
courses in 1960
University of Arizona- initiated reliability courses in 1963, Masters
program in 1969, PhD in ME with Reliability Engineering option.
University of Maryland- began offering MS and PhD in Reliability
Engineering in1989.
Rutgers- has a Quality & Reliability Engineering option in Industrial &
Systems Engineering Dept.
New Jersey Institute of Technology offers a MS in Assurance Sciences
in the IE dept.
George Washington University- Institute for Reliability & Risk
Analysis in the School of Engineering
Jim Breneman
jeb 16
Reasons for Reliability Engineering
Competition customer demand, driven by customer perception,

NOT company marketing.
Need to reduce cost(particularly warranty cost), reduce manpower
Complexity of most products:
Number of Individual component reliability
critical 99.00% 99.90% 99.99% 99.999%
components System Reliability
10 90.44% 99.00% 99.90% 99.99%
100 36.60% 90.48% 99.00% 99.90%
250 8.11% 77.87% 97.53% 99.75%
500 0.66% 60.64% 95.12% 99.50%
1,000 0.00% 36.77% 90.48% 99.00%
10,000 0.00% 0.00% 36.79% 90.48%
100,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.79%
Jim Breneman
jeb 17
Differences between Reliability & Quality Control
Reliability Quality Control
deals with behavior of failure rate deals with % out of spec, %
1 over a period of time defective at ONE point in time
deals with all periods of a part or deals primarily with the

2 component's existence manufacturing stage of a product
deals with conversion of design
deals with design concepts and drawings and specs into parts,
3 methodologies components, etc.
Assures design of high optimum assures that reliability is not
reliability and monitors all degraded during manufacture &
4 aspects of product life cycle assembly
assures that manufacturing
processes result in a uniform
5 product
Jim Breneman
jeb 18
Products increase in complexity with time
The farm tractor - an actual example of increase in product
complexity with time.
Number of Tractor # of tractors
Farm Tractor critical reliability per failing per year
model year components year* per 1000 tractors
1935 1,200 88.70% 113
1960 2,250 79.90% 201
1970 2,400 78.70% 213
1980 2,600 77.10% 229
1990 2,900 74.80% 252
* assuming critical components are in

series, and an average component
reliability is 99.9%
To prevent this degradation in system performance
component reliability must be increased!!
Jim Breneman
jeb 19
Example of Automobile subsystem reliability effect on
system reliability
Setting the reliability goal for a car = missing one round
trip in two years (40 miles one way).. 14,000 miles per
year, or 350 trips in 1 year, 700 trips in two years, with one
missed trip... 700 1
RTarget = = 0.9986
700
Predicted Reliability
reliability observed
Number of Apportioned Attainable after design on
subsystem Subsystem reliability reliability improvement prototypes
1 Engine 0.99963 0.99960 0.99972 0.99957
Chassis,
suspension,
2 drive line 0.99970 0.99935 0.99975 0.99972
3 Transmission 0.99935 0.99910 0.99968 0.99967
4 Electrical 0.99992 0.99875 0.99995 0.99994
Total Car Reliability 0.99860 0.99680 0.99910 0.99890
Jim Breneman
jeb 20
The fundamental Reliability Bathtub curve
Debugging, burn-in Wear-out /

run-in, break-in, Constant Failure rate or hazard
or chance failure region Increasing Rate
Infant Mortality Region
Region
FAILURE RATE ()
Life to beginning of wear-out

Useful life
OPERATING TIME
Jim Breneman
jeb 21
Early failure causes decreasing failure rate
FAILURE RATE ()
Region

Useful life
OPERATING TIME
Poor manufacturing techniques, including processes, handling, and assembly practices
Poor quality control
Poor workmanship
Insufficient burn-in
Insufficient break-in
Insufficient debugging
Substandard materials
Substandard parts
Replacing failed components with nonscreened ones.
Parts that failed in storage (improper storage,packaging or transportation)
Parts failing when energized for the 1st time
Contamination
Human error
Improper installation
Improper start-up Jim Breneman
jeb 22
Chance failure causes constant failure rate
FAILURE RATE ()
Region

Useful life
OPERATING TIME
Interference or overlap of designed in strength and experienced stress
Insufficient safety factors
Occurrence of higher than expected random loads
Occurrence of lower than expected random strength.
Defects that escape best inspection techniques
Human errors in usage
Misapplication
Abuse
Unexplainable causes
Act of God failures due to storms, lightning, earthquakes, floods, etc.
Jim Breneman
jeb 23
Wear-out failure causes increasing failure rate
FAILURE RATE ()
Region

Useful life
OPERATING TIME
Aging
Wear (Stress rupture)
Degradation in strength
Fatigue (LCF, HCF, TMF)
Creep
Corrosion
Mechanical. Electrical. Chemical or hydraulic deterioration
Replacement of failed parts by partially aged ones
Short design life
Jim Breneman
jeb 24
Failure cause distribution for Electronic Systems
Systems Management
4%
Software
9% Parts
22%
Wearout
9%
Design
9%
No defect
20%
Induced
12%
Manufacturing
15%
Jim Breneman
jeb 25
Software Reliability
Jim Breneman
jeb 26
Failure cause distribution for Mechanical Systems
Hmmm, a good
project for someone!
Is it business/system dependent?
Jim Breneman
jeb 27
Short bibliography
+ Ascher, H., Repairable Systems Reliability: Modeling, Inference, Misconceptions and Their Causes
+ Barlow, R.E. Engineering Rel iability
+ Barlow, R.E., & Proshan, F, Mathematical Theory of Reliability
+ Bengtsson, G., Risk Analysis and Safety Rationale
+ Blanchard, B.S., Maintainabi lity: A Key To Effective Serviceability and Maintenance Management
+ Dovich, R.A., Reliability Statistics
+ Ireson, W. G., Handbook of Reliability Engineering and Management
+ Kapur, K.C., & Lamberson, L.R., Reliability in Engineering Design
+ Kececioglu, D., Reliability Engineering Handbook, Vol. 1 & 2
+ Krishnamoorthi, K. , Reliability Methods for Engineers
+ Lewis,E.E., Introduction to Reliability Engineering
+ Nelson, W., Applied L ife Data Analysis
+ O'Connor, P.D.T., Practical Reliability Engineering
+ Pecht, M., Product Reliability, Maintainability and Supportability Handbook
+ Rao, S., Reliability-Based Design
+ Ramakumar,R., Engineering Reliability
+ Shooman, M.L., Software Engineering: Design, Reliability, and Management
Jim Breneman
jeb 28

Me 582 Class Intro

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Me 582 Class Intro

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

ME582 Reliability EngineeringIntroduction

Jim February 1, 2006: Probability & Reliability distributions(Binomial, Poisson)

Jim February 8, 2006: Reliability distributions (Exponential, Weibull)

Jim February 15,2006: Reliability Distributions continuedWeibull

Jim February 22,2006: Reliability Modelingparallel, series, redundant, standby systems

Dave March 1, 2006: FME(C)A

Ken March 8, 2006: Reliability Program Planning/Reliability Allocations and Predictions

March 22,, 2006 : Spring Break

Ken April 5 , 2006: Reliability/Cost/Warranty modeling

Presentation of Project Outline(Powerpoint--20 minutes maximum):

Each non-presenting student will have comment cards to judge:

Everyone has a personal concept of reliability.

where Reliabilitysys=A1xA2xA3xA4x. xAN

In the US during the 1940s improving reliability became an extension of

x SMA insight x Embedded verification

Competition customer demand, driven by customer perception,

deals with all periods of a part or deals primarily with the

* assuming critical components are in

Debugging, burn-in Wear-out /

Life to beginning of wear-out

Life to beginning of wear-out

Life to beginning of wear-out

Life to beginning of wear-out

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen