Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
in a capital-intensive company
Visit @ Technische Universitt Mnchen
Munich, January 16th, 2013
Dominik Asam
CFO, Infineon Technologies AG
Agenda
Infineon at a glance
Wrap-up
The Company
#2 #1 #1
Renesas 14% Infineon 12% Infineon 25%
2% 30%
1%
10%
0%
1997 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 `12 2013e
-10%
-1% ToMM
-2% -30%
-3%
-50%
-4%
Red line: WSTS
-5% Orange line: IHS iSuppli -70%
ToMM: Total semiconductor market revenue (US-Dollar based) without Memory & Microprocessor.
Real GDP: Inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product of all countries of the world; total of local values converted with in each case current
US-$ exchange rates. World real GDP is from chain-weighted index. Year-over-year growth rates.
Source: IHS Global Insight (15 November 2012); WSTS (16 November 2012); IHS iSuppli, Interim Q4 2012 AMFT Update (7 November 2012).
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 5
We address the market with our
four business divisions
Industrial Power
Automotive
Control
ATV IPC
1,660m 728m
CCS PMM
457m 929m
Chip Card Power Management
& Security OOS+ & Multimarket
C&E*
130m
48% 44%
36% 38%
11% 12%
5% 6%
therein: 27% 23% therein: 17% 17%
Americas Germany China
Japan
Asia / Pacific
Europe, Middle East,
Africa (EMEA)
FY 2011 FY 2012
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 7
More than half our global staff are based in
Asia/Pacific
Employees by country
USA
491 employees
181 East Coast
310 West Coast
Europe Asia/Pacific
12,427 employees 13,740 employees
73 Great Britain 1871 Singapore
2988 Austria 2297 Indonesia
8408 Germany 209 India
79 Portugal 7600 Malaysia
34 France 1423 China
94 Italy 20 Hongkong
179 Romania 116 Japan
24 Sweden 87 Korea
541 Hungary 108 Taiwan
As of FY 2012 7 Other Europe 9 Australia
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 8
Finance employees support
our operations worldwide
7 Great Britain 17
16
8 Netherlands
15 18
9 Sweden
10 USA
11 Singapore 12
13
12 Malaysia
13 Indonesia 11
14 China1)
19
15 Hong Kong
16 India
17 South Korea
18 Taiwan
19 Australia
20 Japan
As of FY 2012
1) China without Hong Kong
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 9
Own production capacities are key
to our differentiation strategy
Warstein Singapore
Frontend (wafer processing in clean room) Backend (assembly, packaging and testing of individual chips)
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 10
Infineon's challenges are reflected
in recent years' figures
Infineon at a glance
Wrap-up
Financials
Financials
Ensure Sustainable
Profitable Growth
Customers
Customer value
Processes
Constantly Become
Leaner and Faster
Enablers
People
Foster Leadership Excellence
Have the Right
and Build a Strong
Competencies in Place
High Performance Culture
FCF ROCE
Segment
Result
Current revenue
Capital expenditure = Depreciation
base
Segment Result
ROCE before tax = margin
= SR margin x
ROCE
(1 15% tax)
Infineon at a glance
Wrap-up
Downturn Recession
887 890
453 ~ 470
~400 428
336 364
325
115
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Guidance Guidance
* Investments in property, plant and equipment and in intangible assets; all figures in million
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 23
Investment decisions difficult due to long lead
times before start of production
Investment decision
Equipment 1
Equipment 2 16%
Equipment 3
Equipment 4
> 12 m
Equipment 5
Equipment 6
Equipment 7
Equipment
Equipment
8
9
32%
Equipment 10 >7m
Equipment 11
Equipment 12
Equipment 13
Equipment 14
Equipment 15
Equipment 16
Equipment 17
Equipment
Equipment
18
19 52%
Equipment 20 <7m
Equipment 21
Equipment 22 Preparation Period (Hook-up Ready for production)
Equipment 23 Lead Time + Preparation Time (Weeks)
Equipment 24
Equipment 25
Weeks
16
Past quarterly forecasts (FCs) were
14 Yr1 26%
Mid-term
12 Yr2
normalized (LOW: -1; HIGH: +1) and
10 compared with actual figures
8
6
Accuracy of mid-term FCs (Year 1 2):
4
2 Unreliable with extreme deviations
0
Only 26% of actuals were within the fore-
-1.5-1
-1-0.5
-1.5-2
<-6
-5..-6
-4..-5
-3..-4
-2-3
5..6
00.5
0.51
11.5
1.52
2..3
3..4
4..5
-0.50
16
bell shaped distribution more accurate
35%
Long-term
14 Yr3
12 Yr4 than mid-term FCs
10 Yr5
8 Explanation: long-term FCs converge with
6
62% 3% long-term trends, less event-driven
4
2 BUT: Too optimistic since 62% of all
0 actuals were below LOW-value, typical
spreads are 2x higher than LOW and
<-6
-5..-6
-4..-5
-3..-4
-2-3
2..3
3..4
4..5
5..6
-0.50
-1.5-2
-1.5-1
-1-0.5
00.5
0.51
11.5
1.52
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY14
FY14
FY15
FY15
FY15
FY16
FY16
FY16
FY16
FY12
FY13
FY14
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Internal rate of return:
75%
Cash-out for investments (discounted)
Cash-in from expected extra revenue (discounted) Investment in capacity
Cumulated net cash flow (discounted) attractive
FY12
FY12
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY14
FY14
FY15
FY15
FY15
FY16
FY16
FY16
FY12
FY13
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
18 quarters
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Internal rate of return:
25%
Cash-out for investments (discounted)
Investment in capacity
Cash-in from expected extra revenue (discounted)
less attractive, idle
Cumulated net cash flow (discounted) capital employed!
A B
5 15 5 15
?
10 30
Revenue
How well do you think you can judge more complex dependencies?
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 29
Applying Monte Carlo simulation to an
investment decision
Comparing current capacity with the most probable MID demand forecast from
the static three scenario planning (LOW-MID-HIGH), new capacity is needed not
before FY18
But: Is the MID scenario actually to happen? Historical indications:
Long-term MID demand FC on average 10% higher than actual demand,
fluctuating with a standard deviation of 21% due to market volatility
Unknown current market cycle phase poses additional uncertainty
MID level
100%
? 90%
Total demand
Probability
Residual 8"
(long-term market trend) NEW AREA
needed demand and cycle
1,600
1600000
capacity buffer development
Total demand FY14
(w/o noise) Like MID scenario,
Total demand MCS suggests with
1,100
1100000
(w/ noise)
30% 69% 50% probability
layer
additional capacity
Probability
Total demand NEW AREA
(short-term fluct.)
needed
need in FY18
8" equiv.
Demand (in thousand
600
600000 trigger point for
Capacity buffer FY16
investment FY16
BUT: with 30%
100
100000
0 50% 50% probability additional
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11Q13Q15Q17Q19Q21Q23Q25Q27Q29Q31Q33Q35Q37Q39
capacity needed
Probability
Infineon at a glance
Wrap-up
Q&A
Customers
Industrial uninterruptable power supplies; electric drive control for
Power Control industrial applications; industrial vehicles; traction; home
appliances.