Caltrain Electrification Costs $I.

5 Billion
More Taxpayer Dollars Than Latest Diesels

Atherton Rail Committee

December 6 ,2016
Updated February 22, 2017
by

Jack Ringham
 Locomotive History
1830s: First U S Railroads, Coal burning steam powered
1890s EMUs first used in England
1900s: Electric locomotives begin replacing steam
- Objections to smoke & fumes, especially in cities and tunnels
- High fixed costs: 3rd rail or overhead wires, power sub-stations
- Only affordable for High use freight & passenger lines
- Commuter trains share tracks of electrified parent & pay no fixed cost
1930s: Diesel locomotives arrive. Fast growth after WW II
Remaining Steam railroads & commuter lines start switch to Diesel
1960s: Last steam locomotives finally retired
2015: Advanced technology Tier 4 Diesel locomotives introduced
85 % less emissions, 45 % increased horsepower, 12%Fuel Savings,
Noise Reduction
 U S COMMUTER RAIL SYSTEMS
25 Major U S Commuter Rail Systems,105 Lines
9 Legacy Systems started from 1827 to 1915: most electric
( Caltrain origins in 1863)
17 New Start Systems after 2015
Now Mix of Electric & Diesel Many started with Coal/Steam
Use same Power as Inter-City Parent
No U S commuter line ever converted from diesel to electric
Either started as electric or switched from steam to electric.
Electric Infrastructure too costly
Caltrain would be the first in U S to convert from Diesel to
Electric
 Caltrain Electrification Evolution
1992 Morrison 1999 Rapid Rail 2004 EIR 2009 EIR 2014 EIR 2014 EIR Update
KnudsonStudy Plan
Route & San Fran-Gilroy Downtown SF San Fran Gilroy S F - S J Tamien S Fran-S J Tamien S Fran-S J Tamien
Miles 77 Miles Gilroy 79 Miles 77 Miles 50 Miles 50 Miles 50 Miles
Rolling $213 Million $228 Million $374Million $ 440 Million $524-573 Million $662 Million
Stock
Fixed $83 Million $608 Million $457 Million $785 Million $950-958 Million $1.318 Billion
Facilities
Total $296 Million $836 Million $831 Million $1.22 Billion $1.47-1.53 Billion $ 1.98 Billion

Result No Action Board Approved, Funds Shortage Funds Shortage, Delayed Awaiting Funds
But Short of Stale EIR
Funds
 Caltrain Electrification Cost Estimate History
Per Cent of 1992 Estimate
1800
COST PER EMU INFRASTRUCTURE COST PER MILE 1603
1600
TOTAL COST PER MILE INFLATION INDEX
Per Cent of 1992 Estimate

1400
1189
1200
1042
978
1000
789
800 653
600 456
351
400 279 284
153 169
163 197
200 100 118 135
88.6 123

0
1992, M-K Study 1999 Rapid Rail 2004 EIR 2009 EIR 2014 EIR 2016 UPDATE
Year and Study

Infrastructure costs (up by 942%) about 9 times as much as

EMU costs and inflation (up by 97 %) since 1992
 Caltrain Electrification Cost Estimate History
Per Cent of 2004 Estimate
Rolling Stock Fixed Facilities Total Cost Inflation

350

300
288
250
Cost -% o f2004

238
200 209
Estimated

171 180 177

150 147 147
133 125 127
117
114
100 101 100
88
74
50 57 61
35.6
18.2
0
1992 M & K STUDY 1999 RAPID RAIL 2004 EIR 2009 EIR 2014 EIR 2016 UPDATE
STUDY
Estimate Year

Infrastructure costs (up by138 %) rose

more than EMU costs (up by77%) and
Inflation (up by 27%) since 2004
 Expert Opinions on Cost Overruns
Willie Brown: Speaker of California
Assembly 15 Years, San Francisco Mayor 8
years
Public Projects:
First budget is just a down payment
Strategy is start project early
Hard to stop as people learn real costs
Many multiples of initial price told
citizens
Bent Flyvbjerg: Oxford Professor,
World Expert on Megaproject Estimates
Nine out of ten rail projects go over
budget. Average 44.7%
Accuracy is constant over 30 year Study
period
Examples:
- Tunnel under English Channel 80%
- BART extension to SFO, Estimate: $1.2
billion, Actual 1.6 billion
- Boston Big Dig 220%
 Infrastructure vs Rolling Stock Cost Overruns
Rail Infrastructure Construction EMU/Rolling Stock Manufacturing
Challenging cost estimating Costs known from experience
Field work, outside, weather
Factory, inside work
Mostly manual labor
Machines, production lines
Each project new & different
Mostly similar products
Day to day planning and work
Structured & 0rganized
Uncertainties, Change orders
Work around train schedules Mostly Predictable
Productivity controls costs
Cost growth much higher than
inflation
Manufacturing Overruns less
Construction Overruns Common frequent
Caltrain Modernization Project
Replace old Gallery Cars &
Locomotives With EMUs
Caltrain Modernization Project
Replace old Gallery Cars &
Locomotives. Keep new Baby Bullets Add new EMU trains
ELECTRIFICATION
UNCERTAINTIES
HSR Service on Caltrain Corridor: not until 2029 -30 or never
Blended System is only conceptual, no details
$675 million Prop1A funds for Caltrain Electrification violate
Prop 1A & could disappear
Uncertainty of PG&E/other power for Caltrain & HSR
44.7 Percent Infrastructure cost overrun very possible
 Project Cost Comparisons: EMU vs Tier 4
EMU Trains 2016 estimates in $millions Tier 4 Trains Costs in $millions
Electrification
Construction & Capital Co $697
Other Fixed Costs 105 14 Tier 4 Locomotives @ $7Mil = $98
Management Oversight 142 70 Bilevel Psgr Cars @ $4mil = 280
Misc. 98
Contingency 276 Total Rolling Stock $374
Sub Total 1,318
Management Oversight ?? 31
Rolling Stock Misc. 13
96 EMU @ $5.75 Mil $551
Management Oversight 62 Contingency 19
Misc 10 Total $441
Contingency 39
Sub Total $662 Total Tier 4 Savings $1,539 Million
Total Project $1,980
 TIER 4 DIESEL ALTERNATIVE
Only involves rolling stock changes
No EIR required, saves costs and certification delays
No ugly overhead wires, tree removal, visual impacts
Saves $1.5 Billion, fund other upgrades, level boarding
No construction disruptions or delays
Improved service & benefits start sooner: 2018, not 2021
No need to tear down & rebuild electrical infrastructure for HSR
Achieves most benefits of electrification
Can benefit all passengers including Baby Bullets and Gilroy
 Caltrain SFSJ Local/Limited Rolling Stock
Alternatives, Trip Times Minutes &Capital Costs
Trip Element - Current Baby Bullet Tier 4 Diesel EMUs, 6 Tier 4 Train EMU Train
Minutes Gallery car Bombardier 5 Car Trains, Car Trains + Level +Level
1 door set Cars-2 Door 2 door sets 2 door Boarding Boarding
per side sets per side per side Sets/side
Accelerate 57.0 57.0 34.9 27.1 34.9 27.1
Cruise @ 79 mph 4.2 4.2 13.8 19.0 13.8 19.0
Decelerate 12.3 12.3 14.4 14.6 14.4 14.6
Dwell 20.6 13.1 13.1 10.9 8.1 5.9
Total Minutes 94 86.6 (21 Stops) 76.2 71.6 71.2 66.6
Minutes Saved 0 7.4 17.8 22.4 22.8 27.4
Estimated Cost $440 Million $ 2 Billion $441 Milln $2.223 Billn
Electrification cost to $1.56Billion $1.56 Billion
save 4.6 Minutes SF-SJ. More than
Average trip 22.8 miles 4.5 times Tier 4
Average Passenger Tier 4
saves 2.2 minutes/trip.
 MetrolinkTier 4 Diesels

Metrolink ordered 20 Tier 4 @ $6 million

each
Long term plan is 40
First delivery: January 29, 2016
Revenue service begins in 2017
4700 horsepower vs 3200 for Caltrain
Locomotives being replaced
Horsepower to weight ratio 45 % higher
than present Caltrain.
Reduces emissions up to 85 % vs Caltrain
Tier 0
Max Speed 125 mph 8 -12 % fuel savings,
less noise
 BART will use diesel DMUs on Antioch Extension
BART has 104 electrified miles
Planned ten mile extension from Pittsburg
to Antioch. Evaluated alternatives:
Electrification project cost: $1,365 million
DMU Project Cost: $525 million
DMUs save 60%: $840 million
Will use 8 Stadler DMUs @ $7.5 million
DMU delivery started June, 2016
Revenue service starts in 2018
Passengers change trains at Pittsburg
JPB Approved Electrification Contracts
EMUs
EMU: 16 six car Trains: $551
million: Stadler only bidder. No
competition
$5.7 million per EMU
Delivery: 2017 - 2019
limited notice to proceed
Full notice depends on funding
Facilities/Construction $697 million
Balfour Beatty
Company has problems &
delays constructing
Denver to airport rail line.
Crossing gates dont work
Paying penalties for delay
Caltrain Electrification Spending and Commitments
Spent as of December 2016 $147 million
Contract Commitments
16 six car EMU trains $551 million
Facilities Construction $697 million
Total Spent plus Contracted $1.395 billion

What if expected $675 million HSR funding goes away?

What are contract cancellation penalties?
Who pays?
 CEQA ISSUES
Project Purpose to Electrify is pretext to ignore diesel alternatives
Violates CEQA Intent to consider reasonable alternatives
Accommodate future (?)Blended System (undefined concept)
Preferred Alternative is EMU Electrification
An EIR need not consider an alternative whose effect cannot be
reasonably ascertained and whose implementation is remote and
speculative (court decision 1979 89Cal. App.3rd 274)
Question: Shouldnt this be particularly applicable to the
Preferred (Electrification with EMUs) Alternative?
Key updated cost & other data deferred to Final EIR. Too late for
Public Comment
 ELECTRIFICATIN
TREE IMPACTS
From EIR Appendix F Page
14
PCC Cities Highlighted
Tree by Tree Details in
Appendix F, Attachment A-3
For
Burlingame
Atherton
Menlo Park
Palo Alto
Electrification Disadvantages vs Modern Diesel
$ 1.3 billion for Infrastructure: overhead wires, sub stations etc.- Avoided with diesel
Removes or prunes over 5800 trees
Visual impact of ugly poles & wires
Baby Bullets not electrified until useful life ends: 2028 -2033
SJ-Gilroy keeps diesel (forever?) Electric wires too costly.Passengers change trains
Uncertain HSR funding; now delayed, may not happen
Construction disruption 2 4 years. Repeat if HSR comes later
(26 access points and 30 + staging areas involving most corridor cities)
Relocate/Rebuild Part of Caltrain Infrastructure for future grade separations & HSR
Examples: Menlo Park Ravenswood & Palo Alto Changes
Need to modify CEMOF (Maintenance Facility) to maintain both EMUs and Diesel
Blended System HSR speeds 110 mph next to most boarding platforms - very dangerous
No integrated Caltrain/HSR Blended System implementation plan
More Electrification uncertainties
 Dwell Time Comparisons
30+ year old Caltrain Gallery cars being
replaced
Only One set of doors per side
Average Dwell Time 1.05 Minutes Per
Stop
EMUs
Two sets of doors per side
Dwell time: 37.5 seconds per stop
Tier 4 new cars would have Two door sets/side
and 37.5 seconds dwell time (like Baby Bullets)
Advantages of Tier 4 Diesel Locomotives
Still Modernizes Caltrain and Sooner
Saves $1.5 billion electrification cost
Excellent Plan B if HSR $675 million disappears
Leaves $875 million for Bullets & Gilroy, level boarding & a few grade separations
Eliminates risk of 44% construction cost overruns
Avoids cutting down of up to 1,000 trees & pruning back up to 3200 more
No corridor eyesore of overhead wires and supports
Avoids 2 4 years construction disruption to neighborhoods and traffic
Avoids taking portions of 66 properties from owners
HSR can always come later if justified
 ECONOMIC VIABILITY
EIR has NO cost/benefit analysis or, payback analysis
Electrification costs an estimated $1.56 billion more than Tier 4
Energy costs are claimed as major Electrification savings
Caltrain FY 2017 fuel budget is $15.6 million
Estimate Electrification saves 2/3 or $10.4 million per year.
(Still need 1/3 for Baby Bullets & Gilroy not electrified)
Assume Electrification saves all $10.4 million and electricity is free
Payback = $1,560 million/$10.4million/year = 150 years
(assuming free electricity and no interest)
Is this good use of Taxpayers dollars ?