Sie sind auf Seite 1von 16

CONSENSUS FORECAST

Spain April 2015


SPAIN 2
CALENDAR 13
NOTES 15

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015


FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015
NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015

Contributors
ARNE POHLMAN OLGA COSCODAN ANGELA BOUZANIS
Chief Economist Economist Economist
ARMANDO CICCARELLI CARL KELLY CECILIA SIMKIEVICH
Head of Research Economist Economist
RICARDO ACEVES TERESA KERSTING MIRIAM DOWD
Senior Economist Economist Editor
RICARD TORN DIRINA MANELLARI
Senior Economist Economist
FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Spain
Outlook improves
Spain

The Spanish economy expanded for the first time in five years last year,
driven mainly by a recovery in domestic demand. Renewed consumer
confidence and an improving labor market are expected to carry 2014s
momentum into this year. In addition, low energy prices should boost
private consumption and the countrys current account. However, some
risks to Spains outlook still remain. The country is facing multiple
elections in 2015, and general elections are due before year-end. On 22
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages March, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), led by Susana Daz,
2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 was re-elected in Andalucas regional vote. While the outcome was rather
Population (million): 46.7 46.4 46.1 unsurprising, the result signaled a potential change in Spains political
GDP (EUR bn): 1,060 1,083 1,190
landscape as the traditionally-dominant PSOE and the Peoples Party
GDP per capita (EUR): 22,692 23,351 25,831
GDP growth (%): -1.3 2.0 2.0 (PP) lost 18% of the vote to emerging parties.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -8.8 -4.5 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP): 81.9 100.5 100.8
Inflation (%): 2.3 0.1 1.3 Growth prospects for the Spanish economy continue to improve.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 0.3 0.5 FocusEconomics panelists raised their forecast for the third month in a
row and see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage
points from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy
also growing 2.3%.

Harmonized consumer prices fell 0.7% in March in annual terms


(February: -1.2% year-on-year), marking the ninth consecutive month of
decline. Panelists foresee harmonized consumer prices falling 0.5% in
2015, which is unchanged from last months estimate. In 2016, the panel
foresees harmonized inflation of 1.1%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rises in January


Angela Bouzanis
Economist In January, industrial production rose 0.4% over the same month of the
previous year in working-day adjusted terms, which was above the revised
zero growth tallied in December (previously reported: -0.9% year-on-year).
The print mainly reflected a rebound in energy production and an increase in
Industrial Production | variation in %
the production of capital and intermediate goods, which was partly offset by
5.0
Year-on-year sharp contraction in the production of consumer goods.
Annual average

Annual average variation of industrial production inched down from


0.0
Decembers 1.3% to 1.2% in January, thereby reaching the lowest print in
% seven months.
-5.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production
expanding 1.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
-10.0 months forecast. For 2016, the panel sees industrial output growth at 2.9%.
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of working-day adjusted The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.8% in 2015 and 2.7%
industrial production index.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations. in 2016, while the government expects the economy to grow 2.0% in 2015.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.3%
in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months forecast. In 2016,
panelists expect the economy to also increase 2.3%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |2


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

REAL SECTOR | Retail sales moderate in January


Retail Sales | variation in %
In January, retail sales rose 4.2% over the same month last year, which was
6.0
below Decembers 5.3% increase. Decembers print had marked the highest
rate since March 2007. The result was mainly a moderation in the sales of
household goods and of food at general shops. On a working-day adjusted
0.0
basis, retail sales expanded 4.2% over the same month last year in January
%
(December: +6.5% yoy).
-6.0
Annual average growth in retail sales increased from the previous months
Year-on-year
0.9% to 1.3% in January, which marked the highest level since February 2008.
Annual average
-12.0
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales. expanding 2.7% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.
forecast. For 2016, the panel sees private consumption growth at 2.1%.

REAL SECTOR | Housing permits hit six-month high in January


Housing Permits
In January, the Spanish Board of Architects (Colegio de Arquitectos Tecnicos)
6,000 20,000
Monthly permits (left scale)
granted 3,466 new construction permits, according to data published by
3-month sum (right scale) the Ministry of Public Works (Ministerio de Fomento). The figure was well
above the 1,866 permits approved in December and marked the most permits
4,000 15,000
granted since July 2014. On an annual basis, permits expanded a strong
39.0%. The print contrasted the 35.3% drop recorded in the previous month
2,000 10,000
and represented the largest increase since September 2006.

As a result of the monthly figure, the moving three-month sum of permits totaled
0 5,000 7,481 in January, which represented a 4.9% decrease over the same period
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
last year. The figure followed the 11.2% contraction tallied in December. The
Note: Monthly construction permits and three-month sum in thousands. current number of permits represents a mere fraction of the 268,266 permits
Source: Ministry of Public Works and Spanish Board of Architects.
that were granted during the JulySeptember 2006 peak.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |3


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Sector
Population (million) 46.6 46.7 46.8 46.6 46.5 46.4 46.3 46.2 46.1 45.9
GDP per capita (EUR) 23,214 23,005 22,563 22,510 22,759 23,230 24,063 24,904 25,818 26,772
GDP (EUR bn) 1,081 1,075 1,055 1,049 1,058 1,078 1,114 1,150 1,189 1,230
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 0.2 -0.5 -1.9 -0.6 0.9 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -1.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -0.5 -2.7 -4.2 -2.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.2 -2.0 -3.0 -2.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.5 -0.3 -3.7 -2.9 0.1 - - - - -
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -4.9 -6.3 -8.1 -3.8 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.4 7.4 1.2 4.3 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.9 -0.8 -6.3 -0.5 7.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.8 -1.5 -6.6 -1.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -1.8 -5.8 -7.0 -3.9 0.9 - - - - -
Housing Permits (thousands) 91.7 78.3 44.2 34.3 34.9 - - - - -
Home Prices (annual variation in %) -3.5 -6.8 -10.0 -4.2 -0.3 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 19.9 21.4 24.8 26.1 24.4 22.6 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -9.4 -10.3 -6.8 -5.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 60.1 69.2 84.4 92.1 98.1 101.3 102.0 101.4 101.1 99.9
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.0 - - - - -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.9 2.4 3.0 0.3 -1.1 - - - - -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5
Producer Prices (annual variation in %, aop) 3.7 6.9 3.8 0.6 -1.3 - - - - -
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.54
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 5.45 5.27 5.26 4.12 1.61 1.49 2.13 2.63 2.77 3.28
Stock Market (variation of IBEX 35 in %) -17.4 -13.1 -4.7 21.4 3.7 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -3.2 -0.3 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -42.4 -34.0 -3.0 15.1 1.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 5.4 7.5
Trade Balance (EUR bn) -52.0 -46.0 -31.0 -16.0 -24.0 - - - - -

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Housing Permits (thousands) 9.6 7.3 - - - - - - - -
Home Prices (annual variation in %) -2.6 -0.3 - - - - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 23.7 23.7 23.7 22.8 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.1 20.6 20.0
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.17 1.61 1.27 1.36 1.44 1.49 1.69 1.82 1.98 2.13
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 2.5 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.5 6.9 -0.2 1.1 1.9 2.8 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.4

Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 - -
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 2.7 1.9 0.3 5.3 4.2 - -
Housing Permits (thousands) 3.1 4.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 3.5 - -
Markit PMI Composite (50-threshold) 55.2 55.7 56.9 55.3 55.5 53.8 54.3 56.9 56.0 -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.7 4.8 - - -

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |4


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

6 4
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016
Banco BPI 2.2 2.1
Bankia 2.7 2.6
3 2 BBVA Research 2.7 2.7
Berenberg 2.3 2.3
BNP Paribas 1.9 1.8
0 0 CEPREDE 2.0 2.2
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.5
Commerzbank 2.3 2.3
-3 -2 Credit Agricole 1.7 1.9
Spain Spain Credit Suisse 2.5 2.5
Euro area
World
Euro area DekaBank 2.4 2.2
World
-6 -4 Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 DIW Berlin 2.3 2.1
DZ Bank 2.2 2.2
3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts EIU 2.5 2.0
Frontier Strategy Group 1.6 1.6
3 3 FUNCAS 3.0 2.8
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.1
ING 2.5 2.1
Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.7 2.5
2 2 JPMorgan 2.8 3.0
La Caixa 2.5 2.3
Lloyds TSB 2.4 2.2
Nomura 2.2 1.4
1 1 Nordea 2.2 2.3
Oxford Economics 2.5 2.5
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Raiffeisen Research 2.0 2.2
Minimum Minimum Santander 2.6 2.6
0 0 Scotiabank 2.0 2.2
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
UBS 2.4 2.3
Unicredit 2.4 2.2
5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.4
40%
Maximum 3.0 3.0
Median 2.4 2.2
Consensus 2.3 2.3
30%
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.1
60 days ago 2.0 2.1
20%
90 days ago 1.8 2.0
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Jan. 2015) 2.0 1.8
10%
European Commission (Feb. 2015) 2.3 2.5
Central Bank (Mar. 2015) 2.8 2.7
0%
< 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 > 3.2

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |5


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %


Consumption Investment
6
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016
Banco BPI 2.5 2.0 3.0 3.5 4
Bankia - - 5.0 5.4
BBVA Research 2.5 1.7 5.2 6.2 2
Berenberg 2.5 1.7 4.0 3.8
BNP Paribas 2.4 1.8 4.2 5.0
0
CEPREDE 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.6
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.3 2.4 5.3 5.3
Commerzbank - - - - -2
Spain
Credit Agricole 1.5 1.5 3.7 3.8
Euro area
Credit Suisse - - - - -4
DekaBank - - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015
Deutsche Bank 3.0 2.1 4.8 3.5
DIW Berlin - - - -
DZ Bank 3.1 2.2 3.2 1.9 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
EIU 3.1 2.1 3.5 3.2
Frontier Strategy Group 2.6 1.8 - - 3.0
FUNCAS 3.5 2.9 6.6 5.6 2015 2016
Goldman Sachs - - - - 2.5
ING 3.1 2.0 4.0 4.5
Instituto Flores de Lemus 3.0 2.8 3.4 4.3
2.0
JPMorgan - - - -
La Caixa 2.6 1.6 4.6 4.2
Lloyds TSB - - - - 1.5
Nomura 2.6 1.0 3.0 0.7
Nordea - - - - 1.0
Oxford Economics 3.0 2.7 4.0 3.5
Raiffeisen Research - - - -
0.5
Santander 3.1 2.6 4.6 3.7 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Scotiabank - - - -
UBS 2.8 2.7 4.4 3.9
Unicredit - - - -
8 | Investment | variation in %
Summary
Minimum 1.5 1.0 3.0 0.7
10
Maximum 3.5 2.9 6.6 6.2
Median 2.8 2.1 4.0 3.9
Consensus 2.7 2.1 4.2 4.0
History
0
30 days ago 2.5 2.0 3.7 3.8
60 days ago 2.3 2.0 3.3 3.4
90 days ago 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.3
-10

Spain
Euro area

-20
2000 2005 2010 2015

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

2
Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical 1
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 2015 2016
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |6


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Exports and Imports 10 | Exports | variation in %


Exports Imports 20
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016
Banco BPI 5.8 5.5 6.0 5.5 10
Bankia 5.6 5.4 7.9 7.9
BBVA Research 6.1 7.2 6.8 7.1
Berenberg - - - - 0
BNP Paribas - - - -
CEPREDE 6.1 6.2 5.0 6.4
Citigroup Global Mkts 5.3 5.7 6.9 7.0 -10
Commerzbank - - - - Spain
Credit Agricole 5.2 4.1 6.0 3.8 Euro area
Credit Suisse - - - - -20
DekaBank - - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015

Deutsche Bank 5.2 6.1 5.4 5.4


DIW Berlin - - - -
DZ Bank 3.5 3.5 3.8 2.6 11 | Exports | evolution of fcst
EIU 4.9 5.2 6.2 5.9
Frontier Strategy Group 5.0 5.5 4.1 3.5 5.5
FUNCAS 5.2 5.5 7.3 6.7 2015 2016
Goldman Sachs - - - - 5.3
ING - - - -
Instituto Flores de Lemus 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.2
5.1
JPMorgan - - - -
La Caixa 5.2 6.0 5.5 4.9
Lloyds TSB - - - - 4.9
Nomura 5.4 5.2 3.5 1.7
Nordea - - - - 4.7
Oxford Economics 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.9
Raiffeisen Research - - - -
4.5
Santander 4.9 4.5 5.7 4.7 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Scotiabank - - - -
UBS 5.2 4.2 4.8 4.2
Unicredit - - - -
Summary 12 | Imports | variation in %
Minimum 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.7 20
Maximum 6.1 7.2 7.9 7.9
Median 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.9
Consensus 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.1 10
History
30 days ago 5.4 5.2 5.9 4.7
60 days ago 5.3 4.9 5.8 4.5 0
90 days ago 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.4

-10
Spain
Euro area
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

2015 2016

Notes and sources 4

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 3
12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |7


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 14 | Industry | variation in %


Industry Unemployment 10
variation in % % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016
Banco BPI - - - -
Bankia 1.5 - 22.5 20.6 0
BBVA Research - - 22.5 20.9
Berenberg 1.7 2.4 22.4 20.4
BNP Paribas - - 22.9 22.3
CEPREDE 2.4 2.9 23.1 21.6 -10
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 22.5 20.8
Commerzbank - - - - Spain
Credit Agricole - - 22.7 20.9 Euro area
Credit Suisse - - 22.7 21.0 -20
DekaBank - - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015

Deutsche Bank - - 22.5 20.8


DIW Berlin - - 22.4 20.8
DZ Bank - - - - 15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
EIU 2.1 2.2 22.9 21.4
Frontier Strategy Group 1.3 1.8 23.0 22.0 3.5
FUNCAS 1.8 2.9 22.3 20.4 2015 2016
Goldman Sachs - - - -
ING - - 21.4 17.9 3.0
Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.0 3.8 23.0 -
JPMorgan - - - -
La Caixa 2.4 2.8 22.7 21.5 2.5
Lloyds TSB - - - -
Nomura - - 23.4 22.6
Nordea - - - - 2.0

Oxford Economics 3.0 4.4 22.4 20.9


Raiffeisen Research - - - -
1.5
Santander - - 22.7 20.3
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Scotiabank - - - -
UBS 1.3 3.2 22.7 20.7
Unicredit - - - -
Summary 16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Minimum 1.3 1.8 21.4 17.9 30
Maximum 3.0 4.4 23.4 22.6 Spain
Median 1.9 2.9 22.7 20.9 Euro area
Consensus 1.9 2.9 22.6 20.9 25

History
30 days ago 2.0 2.8 22.9 21.5 20
60 days ago 2.2 2.8 23.0 21.7
90 days ago 2.1 2.9 23.0 21.7
15

10

5
2000 2005 2010 2015

17 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

26
2015 2016

24

Notes and sources 22

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
16 Unemployment, % of active population.
17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |8


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 18 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP


Fiscal Balance Public Debt 5
% of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016
Banco BPI - - - - 0
Bankia - - - -
BBVA Research -4.2 -2.8 100.3 99.3
Berenberg -4.4 -2.9 97.8 98.4 -5
BNP Paribas -4.8 -3.9 101.0 103.0
CEPREDE -4.9 -3.8 105.5 106.6
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.4 -3.2 100.0 100.2 -10
Commerzbank - - - - Spain
Credit Agricole -5.1 -3.9 102.6 104.5 Euro area
Credit Suisse -4.8 -3.7 101.5 102.5 -15
DekaBank -4.6 -3.8 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015

Deutsche Bank -4.5 -3.7 101.5 102.0


DIW Berlin - - - -
DZ Bank -4.6 -3.8 101.5 103.0 19 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts
EIU -4.4 -3.1 99.8 100.5
Frontier Strategy Group - - - - -3.0
FUNCAS -4.4 -3.3 100.6 102.0
2015 2016
Goldman Sachs -4.4 -3.0 - -
ING -4.6 -3.5 102.0 102.0 -3.5
Instituto Flores de Lemus - - - -
JPMorgan - - - -
La Caixa -4.8 -3.3 100.6 99.8 -4.0
Lloyds TSB - - - -
Nomura -4.4 -3.5 101.9 103.1
Nordea -4.5 -3.7 - - -4.5

Oxford Economics -4.3 -3.3 103.5 105.6


Raiffeisen Research -4.3 -3.4 101.0 101.9
-5.0
Santander -4.2 -2.8 100.3 100.2
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Scotiabank - - - -
UBS -4.6 -3.5 101.0 101.8
Unicredit -4.5 -3.3 101.6 102.4
Summary 20 | Public Debt | % of GDP
Minimum -5.1 -3.9 97.8 98.4 110
Maximum -4.2 -2.8 105.5 106.6 Spain
Median -4.5 -3.5 101.0 102.0 Euro area
Consensus -4.5 -3.4 101.3 102.0 90
History
30 days ago -4.6 -3.5 101.5 102.3
60 days ago -4.6 -3.5 101.5 102.5 70
90 days ago -4.6 -3.6 101.7 103.2

50

30
2000 2005 2010 2015

21 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

105

2015 2016

104

103

Notes and sources


102
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from Eurostat. Forecasts
are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
18 General government balance as % of GDP.
19 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 101
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
20 Public debt as % of GDP.
21 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |9


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield

Inflation and 10-Year Bond Yield 22 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %


Prices (HICP) 10-Year Bond 6
variation in % Yield in %
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016
Banco BPI 0.8 1.8 1.52 2.33 4
Bankia -0.6 1.1 1.85 2.25
BBVA Research -0.4 1.4 - -
Berenberg 0.1 1.5 - - 2
BNP Paribas -0.5 0.7 - -
CEPREDE -0.7 1.6 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.4 0.8 0.95 - 0
Commerzbank -0.7 0.5 - - Spain
Credit Agricole -0.5 0.7 2.25 2.85 Euro area
Credit Suisse -0.7 1.1 - - -2
DekaBank -0.6 0.9 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015

Deutsche Bank -0.6 1.5 - -


DIW Berlin -0.3 1.0 - -
DZ Bank -0.6 0.7 - - 23 | Inflation | evol. of forecasts
EIU -0.8 1.3 1.20 -
Frontier Strategy Group - - - - 1.5
FUNCAS -0.5 0.8 1.79 2.26
Goldman Sachs -0.7 1.1 - - 1.0
ING -1.2 0.6 1.30 2.05
Instituto Flores de Lemus -0.4 0.9 - -
0.5
JPMorgan - - - -
La Caixa -0.1 1.9 0.90 1.80
Lloyds TSB -0.9 1.0 - - 0.0
Nomura -0.5 0.2 - -
Nordea -0.7 1.3 - - -0.5
Oxford Economics -0.9 1.0 1.24 1.37
2015 2016
Raiffeisen Research -0.3 1.9 1.10 -
-1.0
Santander -0.8 0.8 2.27 -
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Scotiabank -0.3 0.9 - -
UBS -0.3 1.4 - -
Unicredit -0.5 0.8 - -
Summary 24 | 10-year Bond Yield | 2000-2019
Minimum -1.2 0.2 0.90 1.37 6
Maximum 0.8 1.9 2.27 2.85
Median -0.5 1.0 1.30 2.25
Consensus -0.5 1.1 1.49 2.13
History 4
30 days ago -0.5 1.0 1.78 2.25
60 days ago -0.5 1.0 2.02 2.55
90 days ago 0.2 0.8 2.33 2.86
2

Spain
Germany

0
2000 2005 2010 2015

25 | 10-year Bond Yield | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources


3
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from
the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica), the Bank of Spain (BdE, Banco de Espaa)
and the European Central Bank (ECB). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus 2
Forecast. 2015 2016
22 Inflation, annual average variation of harmonized index of consumer price index (HICP) in %. Source: INE.
23 Inflation, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
24 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop). Source: BdE, ECB.
25 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

External Sector | Current Account Balance

26 | Current Account | % of GDP 27 | Curr Account | Q1 12-Q4 16 | % of GDP Current Account Balance | % of GDP

4 2 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016


Spain
Banco BPI - -
Euro area
Bankia 0.8 0.7
0 BBVA Research 0.9 1.0
0 Berenberg 0.1 0.1
BNP Paribas - -
-4 CEPREDE 0.5 0.3
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 0.3
-2 Commerzbank - -
-8 Credit Agricole 0.5 0.5
Credit Suisse 0.2 0.3
DekaBank 0.7 0.9
-12 -4 Deutsche Bank 0.7 0.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
DIW Berlin - -
DZ Bank 1.0 1.2
28 | Current Account 2015 | evol. of fcst 29 | Current Account 2016 | evol. of fcst EIU 0.2 -0.4
Frontier Strategy Group - -
6 6
Maximum Maximum
FUNCAS 0.8 0.5
Consensus Consensus Goldman Sachs 0.0 0.0
Minimum Minimum ING - -
4 4
Instituto Flores de Lemus - -
JPMorgan - -
La Caixa 0.6 0.6
2 2
Lloyds TSB - -
Nomura - -
Nordea 0.6 0.5
0 0
Oxford Economics 0.3 0.0
Raiffeisen Research 0.0 -0.1
Santander 0.8 0.2
-2 -2
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Scotiabank 0.6 0.5
UBS 0.1 0.2
Unicredit 0.5 0.8
30 | Current Account 2015 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 0.0 -0.4
40%
Maximum 1.0 1.2
Median 0.5 0.5
Consensus 0.5 0.4
30%
History
30 days ago 0.7 0.7
60 days ago 0.8 0.7
20%
90 days ago 0.6 0.5

10%

0%
< -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 > 1.6

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data
are from the Bank of Spain (BdE, Banco de Espaa). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
26 Current account balance as % of GDP.
27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.
28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration
of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger
number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11


FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015

Fact Sheet

General Data Spain in the Region


Official name: Kingdom of Spain Population | %-share in Euro area GDP | %-share in Euro area
Capital: Madrid (6.4m)
Other cities: Barcelona (5.4m)
Valencia (2.5m) Spain Spain
14.0% 10.2%
Area (km2): 505,370 Other Other
Population (million, 2014 est.): 46.5 19.3% 19.1%

Population density (per km2, 2014): 92.0


Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.8 Netherlands
5.1%
Germany
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.5 Germany 28.1%
24.3% Netherlands
Illiteracy rate (%, 2010): 2.3 6.3%

Language: Spanish, Catalan, Italy


18.0%
Italy
15.6%
Galician and Basque
Measures: Metric system France
19.2%
France
20.7%
Time: GMT to GMT+1

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2013)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 40.7 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 107 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 71.6
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 25.6 Net Exports
Agriculture
80 90

Energy (2012)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,547 Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 6,029
Industry
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 280
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 243 40 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 29.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,301 20 Services 0 Private
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 312 Consumption

Transportation (2013) 0 -30

Airports: 150
Railways (km): 15,293
Roadways (km): 683,175 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Barcelona, Valencia, Algeciras

Political Data Other EU- Other EU-


27 27
President: Mariano Rajoy Brey 21.1% 19.3%

Last elections: 20 November 2011 Other


38.3%
Other
37.4%
Next elections: Before 20 December 2015 Exports Imports
Germany
Central Bank Governor: Luis Mara Linde de Castro France
11.9%

16.7%

France
11.5%
LatAm LatAm
Germany China
5.4% 7.6%
10.9%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Italy 5.6% Italy
6.7%
7.6%

Agency Rating Outlook


Moodys: Baa2 Positive
S&P: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable

Other Food Other


Strengths Weaknesses Food
15.0%
8.3%
10.7% 5.9%


Mineral
Highly developed infrastructure Large fiscal deficit and public Fuels

Mineral
Tourist potential debt
6.5%
Fuels
Exports 21.5% Imports
Close ties with Latin America High structural unemployment
Ongoing external rebalancing High levels of household debt

process Excess of unsold and unfinished Manufact.
housing stock Manufact.
Products
61.9%
Products
70.2%

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12


FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
Economic Release Calendar
April 2015

Date Country Event


31 March Euro area February Unemployment
31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)
31 March Ireland Q4 2014 National Accounts
31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)
31 March Spain January Balance of Payments
31 March Spain February Retail Sales
1 April Greece April Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)
1 April Ireland March Investec Manufacturing PMI
1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
1 April Netherlands March NEVI Manufacturing PMI
1 April Spain March Markit Manufacturing PMI
3 April Ireland March Investec Services PMI
7 April Cyprus March Consumer Prices
7 April Spain March Markit Services PMI
8 April Ireland March Consumer Confidence (**)
9 April Germany February Industrial Production
9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade
9 April Greece February Industrial Production
10 April Finland February Industrial Production
10 April France February Industrial Production
10 April Ireland February Industrial Production (**)
10 April Spain February Industrial Production
13 April Italy February Industrial Production
14 April Euro area February Industrial Production
14 April Italy March Consumer Prices
14 April Spain March Consumer Prices
15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting
15 April Finland February Balance of Payments
15 April Finland February Trend Indicator of Output
15 April France March Consumer Prices
17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices
17 April Austria March Consumer Prices
20 April Cyprus January Industrial Production
20 April Portugal April Leading Indicators
20 April Portugal March Industrial Production
22 April Netherlands April Consumer Confidence
23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April France April Business Confidence
23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence
24 April Austria February Industrial Production
24 April Belgium April Leading Indicators (*)
24 April Belgium February Industrial Production
24 April Germany April Business Confidence
24 April Netherlands April Business Confidence

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13


FOCUSECONOMICS April 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event


28 April France April Consumer Confidence
29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment
29 April Austria April Consumer Confidence
29 April Austria March Unemployment
29 April Austria April Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI
29 April Belgium April Consumer Prices
29 April Belgium Q4 2014 National Accounts
29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)
29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence
29 April Italy April Business Confidence
29 April Spain March Retail Sales
30 April Euro area March Unemployment
30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April Austria Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)
30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April Spain February Balance of Payments
30 April Spain February Housing Permits
30 April Spain Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)
1 May Greece May Markit Manufacturing PMI (*)
1 May Ireland April Investec Manufacturing PMI
1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
1 May Netherlands April NEVI Manufacturing PMI
4 May Spain April Markit Manufacturing PMI

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14


FOCUSECONOMICS

Notes and Statements


Notes April 2015

PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a
monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total
global output:

G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France,
Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.
Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Spain.
Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro
area member.
Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro
area members.
MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and
Yemen.
Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,
Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and
Vietnam.
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation
and exchange rates.

BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in
November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.

COPYRIGHT NOTE
Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or
redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights
reserved under International Copyright Conventions.

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Euro Area is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics.


Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L.
Gran Via 657
E-08010 Barcelona
Spain
tel: +34 932 651 040
fax: +34 932 650 804
e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Euro Area (Forecast) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (Information Providers) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the
Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from
the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the
use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the
exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific
investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation
of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and
the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 15


FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,600 unique indicators in
95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus
Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in
the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions.

WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS


REDUCE RISK Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts.

SAVE TIME Get just the information you need, all in one place.

OPTIMIZE RESEARCH Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of


leading economists.

ANALYZE TRENDS Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have
evolved over time.

ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country
or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects.

INDICATORS INCLUDED
REAL SECTOR EXTERNAL SECTOR MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR
GDP per capita Current Account Money
Economic Growth Trade Balance Inflation Rate
Consumption Exports Policy Interest Rate
Investment Imports Exchange Rate
Industrial Production International Reserves
Unemployment Rate External Debt
Fiscal Balance
Public Debt

REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED


ASIA PACIFIC | Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand,
Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand

CENTRAL AMERICA | Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
& CARIBBEAN | Trinidad & Tobago

EASTERN EUROPE| Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine

EURO AREA | Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain

LATIN AMERICA| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela

MAJOR ECONOMIES | G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone,
Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland

MIDDLE EAST| Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab
& NORTH AFRICA| Emirates, Yemen; South Africa

NORDIC ECONOMIES| Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden

FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657, 08010, Barcelona, Spain | +34 932 651 040 | subscribers@focus-economics.com | www.focus-economics.com

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen