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ARNE POHLMAN OLGA COSCODAN ANGELA BOUZANIS
Chief Economist Economist Economist
ARMANDO CICCARELLI CARL KELLY CECILIA SIMKIEVICH
Head of Research Economist Economist
RICARDO ACEVES TERESA KERSTING MIRIAM DOWD
Senior Economist Economist Editor
RICARD TORN DIRINA MANELLARI
Senior Economist Economist
FOCUSECONOMICS Spain April 2015
Spain
Outlook improves
Spain
The Spanish economy expanded for the first time in five years last year,
driven mainly by a recovery in domestic demand. Renewed consumer
confidence and an improving labor market are expected to carry 2014s
momentum into this year. In addition, low energy prices should boost
private consumption and the countrys current account. However, some
risks to Spains outlook still remain. The country is facing multiple
elections in 2015, and general elections are due before year-end. On 22
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages March, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), led by Susana Daz,
2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 was re-elected in Andalucas regional vote. While the outcome was rather
Population (million): 46.7 46.4 46.1 unsurprising, the result signaled a potential change in Spains political
GDP (EUR bn): 1,060 1,083 1,190
landscape as the traditionally-dominant PSOE and the Peoples Party
GDP per capita (EUR): 22,692 23,351 25,831
GDP growth (%): -1.3 2.0 2.0 (PP) lost 18% of the vote to emerging parties.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -8.8 -4.5 -2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP): 81.9 100.5 100.8
Inflation (%): 2.3 0.1 1.3 Growth prospects for the Spanish economy continue to improve.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 0.3 0.5 FocusEconomics panelists raised their forecast for the third month in a
row and see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage
points from last months forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy
also growing 2.3%.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of working-day adjusted The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.8% in 2015 and 2.7%
industrial production index.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations. in 2016, while the government expects the economy to grow 2.0% in 2015.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.3%
in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months forecast. In 2016,
panelists expect the economy to also increase 2.3%.
As a result of the monthly figure, the moving three-month sum of permits totaled
0 5,000 7,481 in January, which represented a 4.9% decrease over the same period
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
last year. The figure followed the 11.2% contraction tallied in December. The
Note: Monthly construction permits and three-month sum in thousands. current number of permits represents a mere fraction of the 268,266 permits
Source: Ministry of Public Works and Spanish Board of Architects.
that were granted during the JulySeptember 2006 peak.
Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Sector
Population (million) 46.6 46.7 46.8 46.6 46.5 46.4 46.3 46.2 46.1 45.9
GDP per capita (EUR) 23,214 23,005 22,563 22,510 22,759 23,230 24,063 24,904 25,818 26,772
GDP (EUR bn) 1,081 1,075 1,055 1,049 1,058 1,078 1,114 1,150 1,189 1,230
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 0.2 -0.5 -1.9 -0.6 0.9 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 0.0 -0.6 -2.1 -1.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -0.5 -2.7 -4.2 -2.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 0.2 -2.0 -3.0 -2.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.5 -0.3 -3.7 -2.9 0.1 - - - - -
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -4.9 -6.3 -8.1 -3.8 3.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 9.4 7.4 1.2 4.3 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.9 -0.8 -6.3 -0.5 7.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.8 -1.5 -6.6 -1.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -1.8 -5.8 -7.0 -3.9 0.9 - - - - -
Housing Permits (thousands) 91.7 78.3 44.2 34.3 34.9 - - - - -
Home Prices (annual variation in %) -3.5 -6.8 -10.0 -4.2 -0.3 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 19.9 21.4 24.8 26.1 24.4 22.6 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -9.4 -10.3 -6.8 -5.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 60.1 69.2 84.4 92.1 98.1 101.3 102.0 101.4 101.1 99.9
Monetary and Financial Sector
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.0 - - - - -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 2.9 2.4 3.0 0.3 -1.1 - - - - -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5
Producer Prices (annual variation in %, aop) 3.7 6.9 3.8 0.6 -1.3 - - - - -
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.39 0.76 1.54
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 1.01 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.62 1.00 1.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 5.45 5.27 5.26 4.12 1.61 1.49 2.13 2.63 2.77 3.28
Stock Market (variation of IBEX 35 in %) -17.4 -13.1 -4.7 21.4 3.7 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.34 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.04 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.20
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.9 -3.2 -0.3 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -42.4 -34.0 -3.0 15.1 1.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 5.4 7.5
Trade Balance (EUR bn) -52.0 -46.0 -31.0 -16.0 -24.0 - - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Housing Permits (thousands) 9.6 7.3 - - - - - - - -
Home Prices (annual variation in %) -2.6 -0.3 - - - - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 23.7 23.7 23.7 22.8 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.1 20.6 20.0
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %, aop) -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.17 1.61 1.27 1.36 1.44 1.49 1.69 1.82 1.98 2.13
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.26 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 2.5 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 2.5 6.9 -0.2 1.1 1.9 2.8 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.4
Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 - -
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 2.7 1.9 0.3 5.3 4.2 - -
Housing Permits (thousands) 3.1 4.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.9 3.5 - -
Markit PMI Composite (50-threshold) 55.2 55.7 56.9 55.3 55.5 53.8 54.3 56.9 56.0 -
Inflation (HICP, annual variation in %) 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.12 -
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 1.7 4.8 - - -
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
6 4
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016
Banco BPI 2.2 2.1
Bankia 2.7 2.6
3 2 BBVA Research 2.7 2.7
Berenberg 2.3 2.3
BNP Paribas 1.9 1.8
0 0 CEPREDE 2.0 2.2
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5 2.5
Commerzbank 2.3 2.3
-3 -2 Credit Agricole 1.7 1.9
Spain Spain Credit Suisse 2.5 2.5
Euro area
World
Euro area DekaBank 2.4 2.2
World
-6 -4 Deutsche Bank 2.5 2.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 DIW Berlin 2.3 2.1
DZ Bank 2.2 2.2
3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts EIU 2.5 2.0
Frontier Strategy Group 1.6 1.6
3 3 FUNCAS 3.0 2.8
Goldman Sachs 2.2 2.1
ING 2.5 2.1
Instituto Flores de Lemus 2.7 2.5
2 2 JPMorgan 2.8 3.0
La Caixa 2.5 2.3
Lloyds TSB 2.4 2.2
Nomura 2.2 1.4
1 1 Nordea 2.2 2.3
Oxford Economics 2.5 2.5
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Raiffeisen Research 2.0 2.2
Minimum Minimum Santander 2.6 2.6
0 0 Scotiabank 2.0 2.2
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
UBS 2.4 2.3
Unicredit 2.4 2.2
5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 1.6 1.4
40%
Maximum 3.0 3.0
Median 2.4 2.2
Consensus 2.3 2.3
30%
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.1
60 days ago 2.0 2.1
20%
90 days ago 1.8 2.0
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Jan. 2015) 2.0 1.8
10%
European Commission (Feb. 2015) 2.3 2.5
Central Bank (Mar. 2015) 2.8 2.7
0%
< 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 > 3.2
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.
Spain
Euro area
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015
2
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical 1
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 2015 2016
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10
Spain
Euro area
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015
2015 2016
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 3
12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
History
30 days ago 2.0 2.8 22.9 21.5 20
60 days ago 2.2 2.8 23.0 21.7
90 days ago 2.1 2.9 23.0 21.7
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015
26
2015 2016
24
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 20
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
16 Unemployment, % of active population.
17 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
50
30
2000 2005 2010 2015
105
2015 2016
104
103
Spain
Germany
0
2000 2005 2010 2015
26 | Current Account | % of GDP 27 | Curr Account | Q1 12-Q4 16 | % of GDP Current Account Balance | % of GDP
10%
0%
< -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 > 1.6
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data
are from the Bank of Spain (BdE, Banco de Espaa). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
26 Current account balance as % of GDP.
27 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.
28 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
29 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
30 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration
of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger
number of panelists.
Fact Sheet
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2013)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 40.7 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 107 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 71.6
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 25.6 Net Exports
Agriculture
80 90
Energy (2012)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,547 Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 6,029
Industry
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 280
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 243 40 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 29.3
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,301 20 Services 0 Private
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 312 Consumption
Airports: 150
Railways (km): 15,293
Roadways (km): 683,175 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Barcelona, Valencia, Algeciras
16.7%
France
11.5%
LatAm LatAm
Germany China
5.4% 7.6%
10.9%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Italy 5.6% Italy
6.7%
7.6%
Mineral
Highly developed infrastructure Large fiscal deficit and public Fuels
Mineral
Tourist potential debt
6.5%
Fuels
Exports 21.5% Imports
Close ties with Latin America High structural unemployment
Ongoing external rebalancing High levels of household debt
process Excess of unsold and unfinished Manufact.
housing stock Manufact.
Products
61.9%
Products
70.2%
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a
monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total
global output:
G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France,
Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.
Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Spain.
Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro
area member.
Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro
area members.
MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and
Yemen.
Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,
Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and
Vietnam.
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puero Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Additional Countries: Switzerland and South Africa.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation
and exchange rates.
BRIC (4 countries): Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Goldman Sachs in
November 2001 and has since been widely adopted in investment and finance.
COPYRIGHT NOTE
Copyright 2015 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or
redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights
reserved under International Copyright Conventions.
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e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
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DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Euro Area (Forecast) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (Information Providers) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the
Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from
the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the
use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the
exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific
investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation
of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and
the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.
SAVE TIME Get just the information you need, all in one place.
ANALYZE TRENDS Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have
evolved over time.
ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country
or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects.
INDICATORS INCLUDED
REAL SECTOR EXTERNAL SECTOR MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR
GDP per capita Current Account Money
Economic Growth Trade Balance Inflation Rate
Consumption Exports Policy Interest Rate
Investment Imports Exchange Rate
Industrial Production International Reserves
Unemployment Rate External Debt
Fiscal Balance
Public Debt
CENTRAL AMERICA | Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
& CARIBBEAN | Trinidad & Tobago
EASTERN EUROPE| Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine
EURO AREA | Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain
LATIN AMERICA| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela
MAJOR ECONOMIES | G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone,
Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland
MIDDLE EAST| Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab
& NORTH AFRICA| Emirates, Yemen; South Africa
FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657, 08010, Barcelona, Spain | +34 932 651 040 | subscribers@focus-economics.com | www.focus-economics.com