University of Bath

Department of Economics
ES10003 Introduction to Statistics
Fall 2013
Thanos Mergoupis

Part 1.2: Introduction to probability

Problems

Multiple choice questions

Select the answer that you think is most appropriate.

1. The probability that a throw of a fair six-sided die is less than 3, is equal to 1/3.

A. True, as calculated using the classical probability approach.

B. True, as calculated using the empirical frequency probability approach.
C. True, as calculated using the subjective probability approach.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.

2. When rolling two fair six-sided dice, the probability that the sum of the two rolls is
8:

A. Is equal to 1/9.
B. Is greater than the probability that the sum of the two rolls is 7.
C. Is equal to the probability that the sum of the two rolls is 5.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.

3. A hat contains two blue, two red, two yellow, and two green marbles that cannot be
distinguished by touching them. Without looking you draw marbles repeatedly and
then replace them back into the hat. The probability that you draw two consecutive red
marbles:

A. Is less than the probability of drawing first a blue marble and then a green marble.
B. Is less than the probability of drawing first a yellow and then a blue marble.
C. Is less than the probability of drawing first a green and then a yellow marble.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.

4. Consider drawing two cards without replacement from a deck of 52 cards. The
probability that you draw two aces is:

1
 7
A.
221
1
B.
169
1
C.
221
D. The same as drawing two spades.
E. None of the above

5. There is a random draw of one card from a 52 card deck. You are told that the card
is red. The probability that it is a King is:

A. The same as the probability it is the Ace of Hearts.

1
B.
13
1
C.
26
3
D.
52
E. None of the above

6. Between 0 and 999 there is/are:

A. One number with 3 sevens in it.

B. 27 numbers with exactly 2 sevens in them.
C. 271 numbers with at least one 7 in them.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.

7. If two events are mutually exclusive and none of them is the empty set, then:

A. One event must be complement of the other.

B. The two events must be collectively exhaustive.
C. The two events cannot be stochastically independent.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above

8. In a remote town, the probability that a person has an internet connection at home is
34%. The probability that a person has access to the internet at work is 40%. The
probability that a person has internet connection at home, given that this person has
internet access at work, is 55%. Then:

A. The probability that a person has internet access at work, given that s/he has
internet connection at home is 73%.

2
B. The probability that a person has no access to internet at all, that is no internet
connection at home, and no internet access at work, is 33%.
C. More than 50% of the population has access in exactly one place: either work or at
home.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above

Exercises

Exercises 1-4: NCT 3.9, 3.13, 3.17, 3.31.

5. A committee of 1 man and 1 woman is to be chosen from a group of 5 men and 8

women. How many possible committees can be chosen?

6. How many different 6-place licence plates are possible if the first 3 places are to be
occupied by letters and the final 3 by numbers?

7. Albert has 10 DVDs that he is going to put on his shelf. Of these, 4 are
documentaries, 3 from TV shows, and 3 action/adventure films. He wants to arrange
them so that all DVDs of the same genre are together on the shelf. How many different
arrangements of DVDs are possible?

8. How many different letter arrangements can be formed using the letters
PEPPER?

9. In how many different ways can 3 white, 4 red, and 4 black balls be arranged in a
row if same coloured balls are indistinguishable from each other?

10. In the common poker game called five card stud, five cards are initially dealt to
each player. The order in which the cards arrive does not matter. But the individual
cards matter. How many different sets of five cards (called hands) are they possible
from a deck of 52 cards?

11. From a group of 5 men and 7 women, how many different groups of 5 can be
formed that consist of 2 men and 3 women?

12. An urn contains 10 white, 5 yellow, and 10 black marbles. A marble is chosen at
random from the urn, and it is noted that it is not black. What is the probability that it
is yellow?

Exercises 13-21: NCT 3.34, 3.35, 3.40, 3.42, 3.50, 3.94(a)-(d), 3.83, 3.109, 3.116.

22. Emma and Josh have just gotten engaged. What is the probability that they have
different blood types? Assume that blood types for both men and women are
distributed in the general population according to the following proportions:

Blood type Proportion

A 40%

3
 B 10%
AB 5%
O 45%

23. In a certain third world nation, statistics show that only two out of ten children
born in the early 1980s reached the age of twenty-one. If the same mortality rate is
operative over the next generation, how many children does a woman need to bear if
she wants to have at least 75% probability that at least one of her offspring survives to
age twenty-one?