Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Robert Briggs
The future of prediction: speculating on William Gibsons
meta-science-fiction
Ever since famed science fiction (SF) author Ursula Le Guin insisted that
SF is not about the future but rather about the present, critics of SF nar-
ratives have largely rejected the genres popularly held associations with the
function of prediction. Recent celebration of ex-cyberpunk William
Gibsons Pattern Recognition as artistically ambitious SF, notwithstanding
its present-day setting, thus appears to mark the inevitable conclusion to
Le Guins claims for the allegorical function of future-based fictions. Taken
together, these events or trajectories may provide an opportunity to explore
the question of the place of prediction not only in contemporary SF and
SF studies, but also in what Bruce Sterling has called our truly science-fic-
tional world. For in a string of largely unremarked upon novels Gibson
published throughout the 1990s, the function of prediction seems dis-
placed from the level of narration and onto particular objects and charac-
ters appearing within the novels diegetic world. The narratives thus take
on a strange kind of metafictional quality, speculating on the very activity
of prediction that is sometimes imagined to define the work of SF. Exam-
ining Gibsons Bridge stories with a metafictional eye to how they
imagine the future of prediction, therefore, may enable us to pursue a
speculative engagement with cultural discourses on futurity thereby
reconsidering not only routine denunciations of SFs predictive sheen
but also the worldly uses of SFs visions of the future.
Keywords
Cyberpunk; metafiction; futurity
It sometimes seems that science fiction (SF) studies, almost from the
moment of its inception, has been intent on erasing or denying SFs
popularly assumed function of prediction. Indeed, the entire enterprise
of SF studies seems increasingly devoted to rejecting the common-
sense view that SFs relations to and with the future can be character-
ised as the work of prediction. Famed SF author Ursula Le Guin put the
point most directly with her insistence in the introduction to The Left
Hand of Darkness that SF is not predictive; it is descriptive.2 But
more recently, the 100th issue of Science Fiction Studies (SFS) has
brought the point home. In that issue, William Gibsons Pattern Recog-
nition (2003) is treated to sustained and detailed discussion in not just
one, but three full-length articles despite the fact that the novel is the
first of Gibsons to be set in the present.3 The issues Editorial Intro-
duction seeks to account for this heightened attention via the theme of
the collapsed future one of the few remaining relations to the
future apparently available to SF. Thus, following a recap of the
history of SFS touching on the establishment of a breed of genre cri-
ticism that would be historical, international, and theoretical;4 on Le
Guins claim to the allegorical function of SF and thus to the legitimacy
of the genre for the historical moment;5 and on the rise of postmo-
dernism, cyberpunk, and technoculture the Editorial Introduction
arrives at the question of how to engage with the future, including
the futures of SF and of SFS:
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Idoru (1996), and All Tomorrows Parties (1999)11 is set in the not-too-
distant future, and arguably features tighter plotting, better characters, and
so on. Also true to Sterlings prediction, however, those novels seem to have
failed to capture the critical imagination, for today there seems to be very
little scholarly attention devoted to the books our most influential SF
artist wrote and released in the period separating Mona Lisa Overdrive
and Pattern Recognition.12 The lack of critical fanfare might indeed be
attributed to a nagging feeling that Gibsons nineties work lacked Neuro-
mancers visionary intensity that for all its flash and burn, theres
nothing particularly trailblazing about it, as one reviewer of Virtual
Light has put it.13 Pattern Recognitions recent reception as artistically
ambitious SF, despite its present-day setting, thus does little to alleviate
this suspicion and indeed goes a long way towards confirming Sterlings
declaration that in the nineties the cyberpunk writers are not even them-
selves anymore.
From the divided but complementary stand-points of Sterling in
1990 and SFS in 2006, it would be easy to imagine Gibsons Bridge
trilogy as an unwelcome detour or a wrong-turn along the path of SFs
artistic aspirations to write a truly mind-blowing story. On that view,
Pattern Recognitions vision of a futureless present might understandably
(if unexpectedly) be thought to mark Gibsons return to the proper
work of SF. But what does such a thought suggest about SFs generic speci-
ficity, and in particular about its apparently ambivalent, incidental relation
to the question of prediction? For the term prediction has served (for
better or worse) as the name for some difference as imaginary or con-
tested as it may be between SF specifically and literature generally.
Not only has the term helped, albeit inconsistently so, frame the popular
or non-specialist reception of SF, but the prediction/allegory dichotomy
helped shape the understandings of SF that circulated in the early critical
literature, at least up to the mid-1980s and even later.14 Indeed (and iro-
nically), prediction continues to serve that role in SF studies ongoing
negation or denial of any predictive dimension to SF underscoring
precisely the possibility of SF-as-predictive at the same time as it concedes,
by force of opposition, that the notion continues to exert some influence
over popular and even specialist thinking about the genre.
While the term prediction itself undoubtedly obscures the many
differences between a whole range of possible relations to the future (pre-
diction, futurity, prophecy, extrapolation, anticipation, premonition, plan,
prognosis, and preparation), it thus remains the privileged marker of SFs
relations to and with the future as distinct from its relations to and with
the present.15 If Pattern Recognitions collapsed future can be read as the
apogee of SF studies compulsion to deny SFs predictive potential, there-
fore, that reading, by seemingly erasing a marker of SFs generic specificity,
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thereby throws the novels precedents in the form of the Bridge trilogy,
to be sure, but perhaps even the entire history of SF into disarray. To that
extent, the novels publication and reception present an opportunity to
pursue a different kind of SF studies, in the guise of an alternative
history a chance, that is, to conduct a thought-experiment in relation
to the textual, critical, and social history that has (or would) come, in one
way or another, to condition the event, that is (or will be), Pattern Recog-
nition. For example: what if we were never entirely able to reduce SFs pre-
dictive impulse? What if, moreover, such an eventuality had already been
predicted not just once, but many times over, throughout the history
both of SF and of SF studies?
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and unregulated capital infiltrate every social space, obliterating all possibi-
lities for resistance and all alternatives to the cultural logic of late capital-
ism.18 No doubt, from the point of view of DatAmerica and the
Sunflower Corporation, the faceless, soulless sponsors of this ultra-urban
vision, the construction plans present an ideal, even idyllic vision of late-
capitalist desire.19 From the point of view of the novels dispossessed,
however most notably the flesh-and-blood people who have built for
themselves a minimal yet self-subsistent existence on the earthquake-
ruined San Francisco Bay Bridge the glasses present a dystopian future
that threatens to destroy the alternative economies and communities, the
sites of resistance and contestation, which have arisen in the margins of
the officially sanctioned cityscape. Of course, in the world of Virtual
Light, this projected city has not yet arrived, and thus it remains only
one possible future. But that future already has its antecedents in spaces
that feature in the novels present: notably, Century City II, a seemingly
hermetic, self-sufficient high-rise for the mega-rich; and Container City,
a shopping mall you have to pay to get into. In this manner, the future
depicted by the glasses offers an extrapolated vision of the novels
present, and Virtual Light, as a quasi-dystopian narrative about the
violent events which unfold around this vision, offers the chance to con-
sider the economic and political forces at play in attempts to engineer
change in the name of a prospective social order. Gibsons novel appears
to speculate, therefore, on the very activity of prediction that is sometimes
attributed to (and more regularly denied of) the work of SF at the same
time that it offers an extrapolation from and critical reading of certain
socio-historical trajectories.
If Virtual Light arguably lacks the radical images of futurity depicted
by the Sprawl trilogy, that is, that novel nevertheless remains within the
orbit of prediction by virtue of its metafictional force. And in the novels
sequels Idoru and All Tomorrows Parties the question of prediction
arises again, albeit this time in a rather different form. A central character
in those novels is Colin Laney, a man who owing to a slight concen-
tration-deficit, mutated via exposure to the experimental drug 5-SB and
developed through training in a specialist research technique possesses
a peculiar knack with data-collection architectures (Idoru, p. 25).20 Not
just an extremely good researcher, Laney is a cybernetic waterwitch,
an intuitive fisher of patterns of information (Idoru, p. 25), the kind of
patterns that enable him to identify nodal points, which seem to form
when something [is] about to change (Idoru, p. 250). It is this rare
ability to locate key data in apparently random wastes of incidental infor-
mation (Idoru, p. 38) that gets him a job at Slitscan, a reality program-
ming and celebrity gossip empire that thrives on creating and then
destroying celebrity lives. But it is that same ability which also lands
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is not at all its capacity to keep the future alive, even in imagination.
On the contrary, its deepest vocation is over and over again to
demonstrate and to dramatize our incapacity to imagine the
future, to body forth, through apparently full representations
which prove on closer inspection to be structurally and constitutively
impoverished, the atrophy in our time of what Marcuse has called the
utopian imagination, the imagination of otherness and radical differ-
ence; to succeed by failure, and to serve as unwitting and even unwill-
ing vehicles for a meditation, which, setting forth for the unknown,
finds itself irrevocably mired in the all-too-familiar, and thereby
becomes unexpectedly transformed into a contemplation of our
own absolute limits.28
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Throughout the Sixties and Seventies, the impact of SFs last desig-
nated movement, the New Wave, brought a new concern for lit-
erary craftsmanship to SF. Many of the cyberpunks write a quite
accomplished and graceful prose; they are in love with style, and
are (some say) fashion-conscious to a fault. But, like the punks of
77, they prize their garage-band esthetic. They love to grapple
with the raw core of SF: its ideas. This links them strongly to the
classic SF tradition. Some critics opine that cyberpunk is
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Has it occurred to you that you wouldnt even be here right now if
Lucius fucking Warbaby hadnt taken up rollerblading last month?
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Hows that?
He wrecked his knee. Warbaby wrecks his knee, cant drive, you wind
up here. Think about it. What does that tell you about late-stage
capitalism? (pp. 259260)
The answer, of course, is very little at all. As it turns out, the vision of the
future offered by the glasses fails to come to pass, but the events responsible
for foiling the dream of unregulated capital are unable to be traced back to
anything more auspicious than an accident, being attributable neither to
the deliberate (or contradictory) machinations of the late-capitalist
system nor even to any purposeful resistance to that system. If the future
is unimaginable, therefore, it is also underivable.50
In view of a seemingly nave theory of SF-as-predictive, that is, the
Bridge trilogy foregrounds as the experiences of Laney and Rydell,
respectively, suggest an attention to the socio-political uses of prediction,
extrapolation, and visions of the future. Accordingly, prediction is signifi-
cant in the Bridge trilogy by virtue of the way it is called upon for practical
more often than not, commercial ends. The Virtual Light glasses are
an obvious example, and in that case seemingly bound to some grand
design. However, the vast bulk of the narrative is driven not by the
future presented by those glasses but like Poes purloined letter by
the almost mundane circumstances which befall the glasses themselves.
The glasses are stolen by Chevette from the courier simply because
he was an asshole and she just didnt like him (VL, p. 41). This
almost arbitrary action brings into play a number of violent characters
who are bent on getting the glasses back. What is on the glasses makes
little difference in terms of the initial events that unfold, and even when
the vision they contain is made known, Rydell at least is unfazed: So
whats the problem?, he asks; they wanna do that, let em (p. 260). To
be sure, there are people who would object to the fact that this sort of
plan even exists (p. 261) notably, a group of hackers who go by the
name of The Republic of Desire but that is precisely what enables
Rydell to recruit those hackers for the purpose of achieving his own,
more modest goal of saving his and Chevettes skins.
That is not to say that there is not something disturbing about the way
that global capital seems always to stake a large claim bordering on the
monopolistic in the dividends of prediction. There can be no doubt
that the vision offered by the Virtual Light glasses serves the interests of
the multinationals and the monopolisation of capital at the expense of the
alternative economies of the Bridge community and the Republic of
Desire. Theres the business of real estate, for instance, as Loveless tells
Rydell; the people who know where to buy, the people whove seen
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where the footprints of the towers fall . . . theyll get it all (VL, p. 262). Simi-
larly, it is the giant corporation DatAmerica less a power than a territory
. . . a law unto itself (Idoru, p. 55) that first identifies, cultivates and
exploits Laneys special abilities, after which Slitscan is only too happy to
capitalise on that dubious investment, turning a profit out of Laneys predic-
tive talents. Nevertheless, the mobilisation of such vision for the furthering
of corporate interests amounts to but one worldly use of the forms and
practices of prediction. Accordingly, and with regard at least to the narra-
tives logic of character action, the dream of unregulated capital projected
by the VL glasses founders not so much on the dilemmas involved in its
emergence some internal contradiction which evinces our constitutional
inability to imagine Utopia or Dystopia as such, as Jameson might have it51
as on that visions irrepressible appropriability. Gibsons DIY cyberpunk
mantra the street finds its own uses for things52 applies just as much to
the forms and techniques of prediction, in other words, as to the fantastic
technologies which populate the imagined worlds of our future.
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Notes
1 Editorial Introduction, Science Fiction Studies 33.100 (2006), pp. 385 388,
p. 387.
2 Ursula Le Guin, Introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness in Susan Wood
(ed.), The Language of the Night: Essays on Fantasy and Science Fiction
(New York: G.P. Putnams Sons, 1979), pp. 155 159, p. 156. Originally
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published in Ursula Le Guin, The Left Hand of Darkness (New York: Ace,
1969).
3 William Gibson, Pattern Recognition (London: Viking, 2003).
4 Editorial Introduction, p. 385.
5 Ibid., p. 386.
6 Ibid., p. 388.
7 William Gibson, Spook Country (London: Viking, 2007).
8 Bruce Sterling, Cyberpunk in the Nineties, n.p. http://www.streettech.com/
bcp/BCPtext/Manifestos/CPInThe90s.html (accessed October 23, 2012).
First published in Interzone: Science Fiction and Fantasy, 38 (June 1990),
pp. 39 41.
9 William Gibson, Mona Lisa Overdrive (London: Grafton, 1989).
10 Sterling, Cyberpunk in the Nineties, n.p.
11 William Gibson, Virtual Light (London: Penguin, 1993); William Gibson,
Idoru (London: Viking, 1996); and William Gibson, All Tomorrows Parties
(London: Penguin, 2000). Hereafter, all references to these texts cited paren-
thetically in the text, using VL, Idoru, and ATP, respectively.
12 Notable exceptions here are Ross Farnell, Posthuman topologies: William
Gibsons Architexture in Virtual Light and Idoru Science Fiction Studies,
25 (1998), pp. 459 480; Graham Murphy, Post/humanity and the intersti-
tial: a glorification of possibility in Gibsons Bridge sequence Science Fiction
Sudies, 30 (2003), pp. 72 90; and Tama Leaver, The Infinite Plasticity
of the Digital: Posthuman Possibilities, Embodiment and Technology in
William Gibsons Interstitial Trilogy, Reconstruction, 4 (Summer 2004),
n.p. http://reconstruction.eserver.org/043/leaver.htm (accessed October 23,
2012). Farnell and Murphy both note the lack of critical material dedicated
to Gibsons 1990s output and do their bit towards cultivating scholarly reflec-
tion on the Bridge novels.
13 Lance Olsen, Virtual Light, Postmodern Culture, 4.2 (1994), n.p.
14 See, for instance, the interview with Bruce Sterling, originally published in
Interzone (Spring 1986), in which he is asked, Do you think that SF, far
from being a vision of the future, is a reflection of the present?. Sterling
responded with vehemence to the implication that SF can be reduced to the
status of allegory, seeing that move as part of an ongoing attempt to reduce
SF to a sub-branch of mainstream literature (cited in Tom Shippey, Semiotic
Ghosts and Ghostliness in the Work of Bruce Sterling in Tom Shippey and
George Slusser (ed.), Fiction 2000: Cyberpunk and the Future of Narrative
[London: University of Georgia Press, 1992], pp. 208 220, p. 219).
15 It is worth noting here that Le Guins insistence in 1969 that science fiction is
not predictive was not made in the name of distinguishing between prediction
and the work, say, of extrapolation or of imagining the future. Indeed, she
explicitly argued that science fiction isnt about the future (Introduction to
The Left Hand of Darkness, p. 158), and in this sense prediction stood
(and still stands) in for everything that might if the thought could ever be
entertained make SF in some way about the future, rather than simply
and purely about the present.
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The Centre for Future Studies explores the geography of time. We scan
the horizon to identify the contours of change and their likely conse-
quences, five to fifty years ahead. We aim to give our clients a strategic
advantage by mapping the critical pathways to the future. (http://www.
futurestudies.co.uk [accessed October 23, 2012])
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42 In doing so, Jameson rather surprisingly, if only on occasion, ignores the role
that the material processes of commercial publishing may play in shaping the
form of particular novels. For instance, Jameson argues that the merit of SF is
to dramatize on the level of plot itself the contradiction between the generic
demand for a future history without closure and the narrative demand for
completion, even if that ending is ingeniously organized around the structural
repression of endings as such (p. 148). Thus, he writes, Asimov has consist-
ently refused to complete or terminate his Foundation series (p. 148). And so
on Jamesons account and against his usual attention to the material
dynamics of culture the non-completion of Asimovs SF series is attributable
to the authors aesthetic insight rather than to the commercial logic of serial-
isation and its concomitant economies of labour, marketing and demand.
43 Sterling, Preface, p. xi.
44 Jameson, Progress vs Utopia, p. 156.
45 Sterling, Preface, pp. x xi.
46 Jameson, Progress vs Utopia, p. 153.
47 Sterling, Preface, p. x.
48 Sterling, Cyberpunk in the Nineties, n.p.
49 Jameson, Progress vs Utopia, p. 148.
50 Pattern Recognition throws this point into further relief in an exchange between
Cayce and Hubertus Bigend, a media strategist who contracts Cayce from time
to time for her predictive talents. How do you think we look . . . to the
future?, he asks Cayce, to which he himself responds:
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59 More transparently than much other SF, this book [LeGuins Lathe of Heaven]
is about its own processes of production. Jameson, Progress vs Utopia,
p. 157.
60 Jameson, Progress vs Utopia, p. 153.
61 Im thinking here of Adornos account of the culture industry and its puta-
tively deleterious effects on the consumers of popular culture, in The
Culture Industry Revisited in Robert Ashley (ed.), The Study of Popular
Fiction: A Source Book (Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press,
1989), pp. 52 59. Of course, the outrageousness of Torrances description
also serves to question the sincerity of that kind of criticism, such as
Adornos, which refuses to distinguish between the potential aesthetic value
of popular cultural forms and the intellectual and political competencies of
those who avail themselves of such cultural forms.
62 For readings of the Bridge sequence in terms of the production of new poten-
tialities and the emergence of new forms of existence, see Murphys discussion
of Gibsons glorification of possibility (Murphy, Post/humanity and the
interstitial) and Leavers argument that the trilogy facilitates a range of post-
human possibilities and outcomes which only become good or bad
depending on the specific circumstances of their deployment (Leaver, The
Infinite Plasticity of the Digital, n.p.). See also Frederik Pohls modest pro-
posal for the study of SF, where he identifies (among other things) some of the
ways in which SFs images of the future have led not just to developments in
scientific research, but also to real-world events, including an attempt to insti-
tute a new form of domestic arrangement (line marriage) first depicted in
Robert A. Heinleins The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress (New York: Orb, 1966).
Frederik Pohl, The study of science fiction: a modest proposal Science
Fiction Studies, 24 (1997), pp. 11 16, p. 15.
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