Texas Housing Insights

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT
JAMES P. GAINES LUIS B. TORRES

CHIEF ECONOMIST WAYNE DAY RESEARCH ECONOMIST
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
WESLEY MILLER
TR
TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH ASSISTANT 2 1 2 0
F E B R U A R Y 2 017
Contents
About this Report .............................................................................................................. 3
December 2016 Summary ................................................................................................. 4
Supply .............................................................................................................................. 6
Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator ............................................................ 7
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ................................................................................... 7
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ............................................................ 8
Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ........................................................... 8
Housing Starts .................................................................................................................................. 9
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ....................................................................... 9
Vacant Developed Lots ................................................................................................................... 10
Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 10
Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 11
Border Metros Months of Inventory .............................................................................................. 11
Demand .......................................................................................................................... 12
Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................. 12
Major Metros Housing Sales .......................................................................................................... 12
Border Metros Housing Sales ......................................................................................................... 13
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield ............................................................................ 13
Texas Homes Days on Market ........................................................................................................ 14
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market .............................................................................. 14
Border Metros Existing Homes Days on Market ............................................................................ 15
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................... 15
Border Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................. 16
Prices ............................................................................................................................. 16
United States Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ........................................................... 16
Texas Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ........................................................................ 17
Major Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ......................................................................... 17
Border Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ........................................................................ 18
Major Metros New Home Average Sales Price .............................................................................. 18
Border Metros New Home Average Sales Price ............................................................................. 19

United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................ 19
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ........................................................................ 20
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price .......................................................................... 20
Border Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ......................................................................... 21
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................................... 21
Border Metros New Home Median Sales Price .............................................................................. 22
Texas Home Average Price Per Square Foot .................................................................................. 22
Major Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ........................................................ 23
Border Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ....................................................... 23
Major Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ............................................................. 24
Border Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ........................................................... 24
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ................................................................................... 25
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ......................................................... 25
Border Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ....................................................... 26
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot .............................................................. 26
Border Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ............................................................ 27
Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ....................................................................................... 27
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ............................................................ 28
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ................................................................. 28

2

About this Report
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern
trends in the Texas housing markets.
This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you
find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
info@recenter.tamu.edu.
Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wayne Day, and Wesley Miller
Data current as of January 30, 2017
2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
3

December 2016 Summary
The Texas economy expanded in December as energy and housing markets advanced, and the
outlook on overall economic conditions in Texas increased from November. Total nonfarm
employment expanded 1.8 percent year-over-year, compared to 1.4 percent growth nationally.
Employment growth was spurred by the service-providing sector where educational and health,
leisure and hospitality, and government service jobs realized most of the gains. Demand for
housing weathered rising mortgage rates. Housing prices further appreciated as strong demand
overtook modest supply increases. Months of inventory and days on the market remained
relatively low. Total building permits increased over the month and year. Nevertheless, the
coincident and leading indexes suggest a slowdown in residential construction. With interest rates
expected to rise in 2017, sales in the short-term may pull back, but home prices are expected to
keep increasing.
Supply
The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), which signals future directional changes
in the residential construction business cycle of single- and multifamily housing, declined in
December. The RCLI was negatively affected by a monthly decline in housing starts. The Texas
Residential Business Cycle (Coincident) Index, the measure of current construction activity, also
declined as inflation-adjusted residential construction values continued a slide begun in May 2016.
The RCLI indicates slower growth in future residential construction while the coincident index
registered a slowdown in current activity already underway. Housing starts decreased 13.2 percent
seasonally adjusted year-over-year in December continuing a negative trend that started in late-
summer 2016.
Housing starts are positively related with construction permits and lag their movements by some
months. Single-family housing construction permits statewide increased during December both on
an annual and monthly basis. Austin continued to grow at an accelerated rate after reaching a
trough in mid-2015. Dallas maintained an upward trend and grew 10.5 percent seasonally adjusted
year-over-year. Fort Worth and San Antonio ended 2016 with a consistent climb in housing
construction permits that occurred throughout the year. Houston continued its slow recovery,
closing the year with slightly fewer housing construction permits relative to 2015. Despite slow
growth, Houston still led the nation in the number of single-family permits issued monthly at
2,568; Dallas-Fort Worth (2,327) and Austin (1,144) ranked second and sixth nationally. In the
fourth quarter, the supply of vacant developed lots increased in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio
for homes with a sales price over $200,000. The overall supply of lots continued to lag behind the
demand for new housing.
Months of Inventory of Texas houses for sale settled at 3.6 months (seasonally adjusted),
indicating continued strong housing demand and tight supply. The nation rested at 4.3 months,
suggesting constrained supply may persist nationally (around 6.5 months of inventory is considered
4
a balanced housing market). Overall, supply has been restricted due to limited lot inventory and
construction labor shortages.
Demand
In December, total housing sales in Texas returned to more muted levels after a strong November.
Sales grew just 0.6 percent year-over-year (seasonally adjusted). Nationally, total housing sales
contracted marginally at 0.1 percent year-over-year. The major metros in Texas trended back to
modest sales levels. Year-over-year growth rates were 3.9 percent for Austin, negative 4.7 percent
for Dallas, negative 1.4 percent for Fort Worth, 3 percent for Houston, and 8.4 percent for San
Antonio. In November, homebuyers may have expedited purchases prior to interest rate increases;
therefore, sales normally occurring in December could have been pulled into the prior month.
Employment and income growth, as well as consumer confidence, contributed to increased Texas
housing sales. Consumer confidence favored the economys sustained post-election surge and tax
relief expectations.
Interest rates rose in December as inflation and inflation expectations increased due to possible
future federal government policy changes. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
increased 43 basis points to a 4.20 percent average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, reaching
a peak not seen since April 2014. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield also moved to its highest
point since 2014, rising from 2.14 in November to 2.49 percent in December.
The number of days that existing and new homes were on the market during December remained
low at 53 and 92 days (seasonally adjusted), respectively, reflecting constrained supply and
continued strong demand. This stability was reflected in the existing home markets for the Texas
Triangle metros, while the new home markets exhibited slightly more volatility. The number of
days on the market for new homes increased year-over-year by 15.8 percent in Fort Worth (85) and
3.1 percent in Houston (99), and decreased by 7.3 percent in San Antonio (83). The markets in
Austin (105) and Dallas (79) were relatively constant in year-over-year calculations.
Prices
Overall, sales prices have risen steadily in Texas since late 2011. Existing home prices increased
through December in the state and major metros. The average and median sales price of an
existing home in Fort Worth increased by 10 percent and 13 percent seasonally adjusted year-over-
year, respectively. The average sales price in Austin, Dallas, and Houston grew more than 5 percent
over the same period. San Antonio lagged with year-over-year growth settling just above 0.5
percent. Similarly, new home sales performed better in Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth than San
Antonio and Houston. Average sales prices on new homes in Fort Worth surged 21 percent year-
over-year, while Dallas gains were more modest at 8 percent. Austin was the house price
appreciation leader through December 2016 with existing home prices remaining well above the
other major metros. Austin clearly leads the major metros in terms of price per square foot for
both new and existing homes. The average new and existing homes in Austin are $50 and $30 more
per square foot, respectively, than houses in other major Texas metros. Nonenergy employment
5
growth and a strong services sector caused Dallas-Fort Worth to register strong price appreciation
in December. Existing home prices in Houston continued to recover following the energy sector
decline while new home prices are still lagging.
The difference between the initial listing price to the actual sales price for new homes fell at the
start of 2014 and flattened out as the demand for new homes eased. The gap between new and
existing home sales-to-price ratio has converged at 0.96.
Since 2011, new home prices have exceeded existing home prices by 47 percent and 37 percent
based on median and average sales prices, respectively. This price differential results primarily
because of increases in home size for newer homes and the significant increases in construction
and land costs for new homes. The average price per square foot for a new home in Texas was
approximately 19 percent more than for an existing home.
6

Supply

Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
Texas Coincident Index
100
United States Coincident Index
90 Texas Leading Index
80
70
60
50
40
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Single-Family Housing Construction Permits
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
United States Texas
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

7

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
120
Austin-Round Rock
110
Dallas-Plano-Irving
100
Fort Worth-Arlington
90
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
80
San Antonio-New Braunfels
70
60
50
40
30
20
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Fort Worth is missing data for Somervell County.

Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
100
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16


8

Housing Starts
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
United States Texas
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
Texas
Austin-Round Rock
100
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16

Note: Inflation adjusted. Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
Source: Dodge Analytics

9

Vacant Developed Lots
(Index 1Q2003=100)
250
225
Austin Dallas
200
Houston San Antonio
175
150
125
100
75
50
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16

Source: Metrostudy

Months of Inventory
(Months)
11
10
United States Texas
9
3
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing
homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

10

Major Metros Months of Inventory
(Months)
9
8 Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
7 Fort Worth-Arlington
6 San Antonio-New Braunfels
1
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Border Metros Months of Inventory
(Months)
17.0
16.0 Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
15.0
Laredo
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16


11

Demand
Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110
United States Texas
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes;
new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Major Metros Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
130
125 Austin-Round Rock
120 Dallas-Plano-Irving
115 Fort Worth-Arlington
110 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
105 San Antonio-New Braunfels
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended.
12

Border Metros Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
130
El Paso
120
Laredo
110
100
90
80
70
60
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended.

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield

(Percent)
7.00
Mortgage Bond
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

13

Texas Homes Days on Market
(Days)
110
Existing Home Days on Market
New Home Days on Market
100
90
80
70
60
50
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes.

Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market
(Days)
105
Austin-Round Rock
95 Dallas-Plano-Irving
85 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
75
65
55
45
35
25
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


14

Border Metros Existing Homes Days on Market
(Days)

160
Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso
150
Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Mar-15
May-15
Mar-16
May-16


Major Metros New Homes Days on Market
(Days)
120
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
110
100
90
80
70
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


15

Border Metros New Homes Days on Market
(Days)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Mar-15
May-15
Mar-16
May-16


Prices
United States Existing and New Home Average Sales Price
($)
380,000
Existing Home Average Sales Price
360,000
New Home Average Sales Price
340,000
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Texas Existing and New Home Average Sales Price
($)
350,000
Existing Home Average Sales Price
330,000
New Home Average Sales Price
310,000
290,000
270,000
250,000
230,000
210,000
190,000
170,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-15
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
May-15
Mar-16
May-16
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price
($)
375,000 Austin-Round Rock
350,000 Dallas-Plano-Irving
325,000 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
300,000
275,000
250,000
225,000
200,000
175,000
150,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


17

Border Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price
($)
180,000
El Paso
170,000 Laredo
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros New Home Average Sales Price
($)
440,000
Austin-Round Rock
420,000
Dallas-Plano-Irving
400,000
380,000
360,000
340,000
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


18

Border Metros New Home Average Sales Price

($)
220,000
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
El Paso
140,000 Laredo
130,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price
($)
320,000
Existing Home Median Sales Price
300,000
New Home Median Sales Price
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

19

Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price
($)
310,000
Existing Home Median Sales Price
290,000
New Home Median Sales Price
270,000
250,000
230,000
210,000
190,000
170,000
150,000
130,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-16
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Mar-15
May-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price
($)
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


20

Border Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price
($)
170,000
160,000 El Paso
150,000 Laredo
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price
($)
370,000
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
330,000 Fort Worth-Arlington
290,000
250,000
210,000
170,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


21

Border Metros New Home Median Sales Price
($)
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Texas Home Average Price Per Square Foot
($)
135
Existing Home Average Price PSF
130
New Home Average Price PSF
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


22

Major Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot
($)
170
Austin-Round Rock
160
Dallas-Plano-Irving
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


Border Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot
($)
100
95
El Paso
90
Laredo
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


23

Major Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot
($)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


Border Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot
($)
125
120
El Paso
115
Laredo
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


24

Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot
($)
125
Existing Home Median Price PSF
120
New Home Median Price PSF
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Mar-15
May-15
Mar-16
May-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot
($)
150
Austin-Round Rock
140
Dallas-Plano-Irving
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


25

Border Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot
($)
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot
($)
145
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
135
125
115
105
95
85
75
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Mar-11
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
May-14
Mar-15
May-15
Mar-16
May-16


26

Border Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot
($)
110 Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
105
Laredo
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16


Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio
(%)
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
0.93
New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
0.92
0.91
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


27

Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio
(%)
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94 Austin-Round Rock
0.93 Dallas-Plano-Irving
0.92 Fort Worth-Arlington

0.91
0.90
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio
(%)
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
Austin-Round Rock
0.95
Dallas-Plano-Irving
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16


28

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL
Texas A&M University http://recenter.tamu.edu
2115 TAMU 979-845-2031
College Station, TX 77843-2115
DIRECTOR
GARY W. MALER
ADVISORY COMMITTEE
RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN

Port Lavaca Fort Worth
MARIO A. ARRIAGA TED NELSON
Conroe Houston
ALVIN COLLINS DOUG ROBERTS
Andrews Austin
JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS C. CLARK WELDER
Austin San Antonio
BESA MARTIN BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO
Boerne Temple

Texas Housing Insights

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TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT

JAMES P. GAINES LUIS B. TORRES

Data current as of January 30, 2017

2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

90 Texas Leading Index

0.92 Fort Worth-Arlington

RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN

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