HYDROLOGIC CHANGES ASSOCIATED

WITH THE
LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE
IN THE
SAN LORENZO AND PESCADERO DRAINAGE BASINS

San Lorenzo
Drainage

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Open File Report 91-567

This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial
standards (or with the North American Stratigraphic Code). Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for
descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Hydrologic Changes Associated with the Loma Prieta Earthquake

in the
San Lorenzo and Pescadero Drainage Basins

by
Stuart Rojstaczer1
&
Stephen Wolf2

Open-File Report 91-567

This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial
standards (or with the North American Stratigraphic Code). Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for
descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

1 Presently at Department of Geology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706

2 U.S. Geological Survey, M.S. 988, 345 Middlefield Rd., Menlo Park, CA 94025
 CONTENTS

Abstract 1
Introduction 2
Description of study area 4
Streamflow response to Loma Prieta 4
Groundwater response 12
Possible causes of response 15
A simple diffusional model of hydrologic response 17
Conclusions 18
Acknowledgments 19
References cited 20

n
 FIGURES
1. Map showing location of study area in relation to San Andreas fault, the Loma
Prieta epicenter, and the northern portion of the Loma Prieta rupture
zone 3
2-8. Graphs showing:
2. Hydrograph of San Lorenzo Park from 7/84-7/90 and accompanying
record of daily precipitation 5
3. Strearnflow response to the Loma Prieta earthquake (10/17/89) at Big
Trees, Pescadero and San Lorenzo Park; and at Bear, Boulder and
Zayante 6
4. Comparison of mean daily streamflow over the time periods 7/88-7/89
and 7/89-7/90 at Big Trees, Pescadero and San Lorenzo Park 8,9
5. Base flow as a function of time at the gaging stations 10
6. Total annual flow vs. precipitation at the six stations 10
7. Major ion stream chemistry as a function of time and streamflow at San
Lorenzo Park and Big Trees 11,12
8. Water table elevation as a function of precipitation over the time period
1976-1990 in a well on the eastern edge of the Pescadero basin 13
9. Map showing impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on wells in the Pescadero
headwaters and San Lorenzo headwaters areas 14,15

TABLES
1. Mean annual base flow 7/1/88 - 7/1/89 in relation to drainage area at the 6 gaging
stations 5

m
 ABSTRACT
The Loma Prieta earthquake (10/17/89, M 7.1) caused significant changes in the
hydrology of the San Lorenzo and Pescadero drainage basins. Streamflow increased at
most gaging stations within 15 minutes after the earthquake. Ionic concentrations and the
calcite saturation index of the stream water also increased. Streamflow and solute
concentrations decayed significantly over a period of several months following the
earthquake. Groundwater levels in the highlands portions of the basins were locally
lowered by as much as 21 m within weeks to months after the earthquake. The spatial and
temporal character of the hydrologic response suggests that the earthquake increased rock
permeability and temporarily enhanced groundwater flow rates in the region.
 INTRODUCTION
Hydrologic changes associated with moderate and large earthquakes have long been
recognized (Carnegie Institution, 1908; La Rocque, 1941). While some changes are
associated with the dilatational waves generated by earthquakes and are ephemeral (Eaton
and Takasaki, 1959; Cooper and others, 1965; Liu and others, 1989), other changes persist
in nature and have less obvious explanations. Post-seismic increases in spring flow and
streamflow followed such events as the Arvin-Tehachapi earthquake (M 7.1) of 1952
(Briggs and Troxel, 1955), the Borah Peak earthquake (M 7.0) of 1983 (Whitehead and
others, 1985), and the Matsushiro earthquake swarm of 1968 (Nur, 1974); the increases
lasted from months to years. Post-seismic changes in groundwater level have also been
observed (Waller, 1966; Bell and Katzer, 1987); these changes are often too large to be
explained by the static compression or extension induced by the earthquake (Bower and
Heaton, 1978).
A variety of mechanisms have been postulated to explain these long term changes in
groundwater level and rate of surface discharge. Some studies suggested that these
phenomena are intimately related to the earthquake cycle. They have been attributed to the
expulsion of over-pressured fluids in the seismpgenic zone (Sibson, 1981) and to the
collapse of a broad network of pre-earthquake induced dilatant fractures (Nur, 1974).
Other studies have suggested that these near surface changes strictly reflect near surface
processes. Streamflow and spring flow changes have been attributed to elastic
compression of confined aquifers (Wood and others, 1985). Changes of water level in
wells may be due to seismically induced ground failure near the borehole (Bredehoeft and
others, 1965). Streamflow and groundwater changes have also been related to permeability
changes in near surface materials (Waller, 1966; Bell and Katzer, 1987).
If near surface changes in hydrology are directly related to the state of mid-crustal
pore fluids or pre-earthquake instabilities, then hydrologic monitoring in areas of active
seismicity may provide information on the role of fluids in earthquake generation.
Hydrologic monitoring may also be used as an aid in earthquake prediction. If, on the
other hand, the hydrologic changes reflect only shallow processes, then hydrologic
monitoring tells us little about earthquake generation; however, it provides insight in the
rheologic response of shallow earth materials to earthquakes.
The Loma Prieta earthquake (10/17/89, M 7.1) provides a unique opportunity to
examine hydrologic changes associated with earthquakes. Long term changes in both
surface discharge and groundwater levels were observed in the region after the earthquake.
Minor changes were also noted in response to the Lake Elsman earthquake (M 5.2,8/8/89),
an event which has been described as a foreshock to the Loma Prieta earthquake (Lisowski
and others, 1990). Many of the changes were well documented and their possible origins
can be examined in some detail. In this paper we examine surface water and groundwater
response of the Pescadero and San Lorenzo drainage basins to the Loma Prieta earthquake.
The Pescadero drainage basin is well outside the Loma Prieta rupture zone; most of the San
Lorenzo drainage is a minimum of 10 km outside of the rupture zone (Figure 1). While
other nearby drainage basins were effected by the Loma Prieta earthquake, the San Lorenzo
and Pescadero drainage basins are particularly worthy of examination because the post-
seismic response of the groundwater system in portions of their recharge areas can be
partially quantified The San Lorenzo drainage basin is also worth examining because
unlike other basins in the region, it contains numerous gaging stations that monitor
streamflow (Markham and others, 1988). In this report, we examine the character of the
streamflow response. We also examine the spatial and temporal response of groundwater
levels in portions of the recharge areas of these basins. Finally, we attempt to relate the
 San Jose

15'-

Pacific Ocean

30'

Figure 1. Location of study area in relation to San Andreas fault, the Loma
Prieta epicenter (triangle), and the northern portion of the Loma Prieta rupture
zone (heavy dashed line). Stream gaging stations (circles) are: a - Big Trees, b
- Zayante, c - Boulder, d - Bear, e - San Lorenzo Park, f - Pescadero.
observed surface and subsurface hydrologic changes to extensive permeability changes
within the basins.
DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA
The San Lorenzo and Pescadero drainage basins define a region greater than 600
km2 in area and are located west of the ruptured segment of the San Andreas fault
associated with the Loma Prieta earthquake (Figure 1). The basins are mountainous with
slopes commonly exceeding 30 percent Elevation increases to over 900 m along the
boundary of the basins closest to the San Andreas fault Stream gradients range from
0.003 to 0.2 m/m with the steepest gradients occurring along small low-order tributaries in
the extreme upper portions of the drainage basins (Nolan and others, 1984). These small
channels are only slightly incised into the surrounding hillslopes, and bedrock exposures
are common along such channels. Low order channels usually contain relatively thin
deposits of alluvium over the underlying bedrock. Larger intermediate order channels in
the middle portions of the watersheds are typically V-shaped and narrow and are incised
into the surrounding landscape more than the lower order channels. The channels contain
varying amounts of bedrock and characteristically have beds composed of sandy alluvium
or boulders surrounded by sandy alluvium. Mean annual rainfall ranges from about 500
mm near the coast to about 1500 mm in the higher elevations (Rantz, 1971). Rainfall is
generally absent from May through September, although fog is common during these
months.
Bedrock in the study area consists predominantly of Tertiary marine sandstone,
mudstpne, shale, as well as some interbedded volcanic units (Clark, 1981). In the high
elevations of the basins, the San Lorenzo sandstone, Vaqueros sandstone, and the Lambert
shale are the most common bedrock formations and aquifers. These formations are heavily
fractured at the surface and the degree to which they are permeable is highly variable and
dependent on the degree to which they are fractured at depth (Johnson, 1980; Akers and
Jackson, 1977). Stratigraphically beneath the Tertiary marine rocks are Cretaceous granitic
and metasedimentary rocks which crop out along the southeastern margin of the San
Lorenzo drainage basin. As with the Tertiary rocks, permeability in the Cretaceous units is
variable and highly dependent on the degree of fracturing present
The region contains many extensive zones of structural weakness, both in the near
surface and at depth. In the highlands, many ancient and active landslides can be found in
the Tertiary formations (Hector, 1976). In addition to the San Andreas fault, major active
faults in the basins include the San Gregorio, Butano and perhaps parts of the Zayante
(Clark, 1981). Most folds and faults in the area follow the grain of the San Andreas fault
and trend northwest-southeast
STREAMFLOW RESPONSE TO LOMA PRIETA
Steam flow has been monitored in the region by the U.S. Geological Survey since
the 1930's. The stream gaging stations shown in Figure 1 have all been operating for at
least 13 years. Regulation and diversion of these rivers and their tributaries is minor
upstream of all of the gaging stations (Markham and others, 1988). Mean annual base
flow in water year 1989 (7/1/88 - 7/1/89) at the six gaging stations ranged from 20-500 Vs
with the amount of base flow generally proportional to the drainage area associated with
each gaging station (Table 1). The hydrograph shown in Figure 2 from the San Lorenzo
Park station is indicative of the seasonal character of the response at all of the gaging sites.
During the dry summer months, streamflow is generally governed by the contribution of
groundwater. In the winter months, streamflow is greatly augmented by rainfall-induced
Table 1. Mean annual base flow 7/1/88 - 7/1/89 in relation to drainage area at
the 6 gaging stations.

Station Bear Big Boulder Pescadero San Lorenzo Zayante

Trees Park
Base flow 20 400 40 100 20 20
(1/s)
Area
(km2) 41 271 29 118 16 28

100000 T 40

LOMA PR I ETA
A
-32 O
'c?T 10000-
LAKE ELSMAN
LLJ O
O 1000 -=
DC
<
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CO 100
Q

1
7/84 7/85 7/86 7/87 7/88 7/89 7/90

Figure 2. Hydrograph of San Lorenzo Park from 7/84-7/90 and

accompanying record of daily precipitation (gray line).
 BIG TREES PESCADERO SANLOREN.P. Q PRECIP.

10000 -i

LU
O 1000 r
CC
<
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100 -

-89 09-25-89 10-19-89 11-12-89 12-06-89 12-30-89

BEAR BOULDER ZAYANTE D PRECIP.

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t
LLJ
O 100 -
CC
<

, ... . .^J. ......

09-01-89 09-25-89 10-19-89 11-12-89 12-06-89 12-30-89

Figure 3. Streamflow response to the Loma Prieta earthquake (10/17/89) at

(a) Big Trees, Pescaderp and San Lorenzo Park; (b) Bear, Boulder and
Zayante. Streamfiow is in terms of a daily mean. Precipitation is in terms of a
daily total.
runoff and interflow. The effects of the Loma Prieta earthquake can be seen as a rapid rise
in water level during late October 1989 superimposed on the general seasonal pattern.
In all drainage areas monitored, there is an increase in streamflow associated with
the earthquake, indicating the greatly enhanced contribution of groundwater to the streams
(Figure 3). Except for the Bear Creek station, streamflow increases were observed at the
first sampling following the earthquake (within about 15 minutes of the earthquake) at all
stations which were not temporarily disabled by the ground motion. At Bear Creek,
streamflow increases were preceded by a post-seismic decrease which persisted for 22
hours. The San Lorenzo Park station was not recording for a period of 70 hours following
the earthquake. Streamflow increases were monotonic for several days following the
earthquake, but were masked by rain which began on October 21. Peak increases due to
the earthquake were generally an order of magnitude greater than pre-quake streamflow. At
Big Trees and Boulder Creek, streamflow increases were more modest, indicating that the
magnitude of the response was not spatially uniform. There is no coherent relation
between the magnitude of streamflow increases and proximity to the rupture area.
Although there were large increases in streamflow due to the earthquake, the long
term post-seismic response indicates that these increases were generally short-lived. We
estimate the longer term effects of the earthquake on streamflow by comparing the base
flow over the period following the earthquake with the base flow of the previous year.
Base flow for each year was estimated by straight line hydrograph separation. The excess
base flow produced by the earthquake was determined by calculating the difference
between the post-earthquake base flow and the base flow one year prior at the same station.
This base flow was adjusted by subtracting or adding any differences between the base
flow on 10/17/88 relative to the base flow on 10/17/89. In determining excess base flow,
we make the assumption that, independent of the earthquake, streamflow would not vary
greatly because the seasonal character and annual amount of precipitation for both years
was very similar (72 cm for 1988 and 76 cm for 1989). For all but the station at Boulder
Creek, the difference between base flow on 10/17/88 and 10/17/89 was less than 10% of
the amount of the excess peak base flow.
The flow at three of the stations from 7/1/88 to 7/1/90 is shown in Figure 4. The
inferred excess flow produced by the earthquake is shown in Figure 5. Excess base flow
decays rapidly at all but the Boulder Creek station. After 45 days excess base flow is
roughly 1/2 that of peak flow. After 150 days, excess flow is difficult to identify in the
records.
The increases in base flow were generally small in comparison to the total annual
flow for the year. Figure 6 shows the relation between precipitation and total annual flow
at all of the stations for five years of similar total annual rainfall during the previous decade
(1984,1987,1988,1989 and 1990). Despite the presence of increased base flow, total
streamflow in 1989 decreased at 3 of the stations relative to the previous year. At 2 other
stations streamflow increases in 1989 were very small. Only San Lorenzo Park station
showed a significant change in total annual flow with an increase of roughly 1 billion liters.
This amount of increase is equal to approximately the total amount of inferred earthquake
related base flow at this station during this time period. The lack of a significant increase in
total flow at most stations indicates that the earthquake did not greatly enhance the surface
water supply in this region. For example, the amount of inferred earthquake induced base
flow is about 20% of the total annual flow at Big Trees.
Stream chemistry at two of the stream gaging stations in the San Lorenzo drainage
basin (Big Trees and San Lorenzo Park) has been monitored on a biannual basis. The data
shown in Figure 7 indicates that at both sites the water chemistry is dominated by calcium
 100000 -a

LU 10000-:
O
DC
<
O
CO
0 1000-

I 'I 'I 'I

1-Jul 13-Sep 26-Nov 8-Feb 23-Apr 7-Jul

Figure 4a. Comparison of mean daily streamflow over the time periods 7/88-
7/89 and 7/89-7/90 at Big Trees.

10000 ..

t 1000-.
LU
O
DC
<
100 -.
O
CO
Q

I I ' I I
1-Jul 13-Sep 26-Nov 8-Feb 23-Apr 7-Jul

Figure 4b. Comparison of mean daily streamflow over the time periods 7/88-
7/89 and 7/89-7/90 at Pescadero.

8
 1000-=

LLJ 100-
O
tr
<
i
o
CO
Q 10-

~ 88-89 89-90

1 I I I I II
1-Jul 13-Sep 26-Nov 8-Feb 23-Apr 7-Jul

Figure 4c. Comparison of mean daily streamflow over the time periods 7/88-
7/89 and 7/89-7/90 at San Lorenzo Park.

and bicarbonate. Hardness and overall ionic concentrations are slightly higher at the San
Lorenzo Park gaging station. The differences in water quality between the two sites have
been attributed to the geology of the southwestern portion of the San Lorenzo drainage
basin (Sylvester and Covay, 1978). The biannual analyses of major ions at the two sites
prior to the earthquake suggests that overall concentrations are slightly inversely related to
stream discharge rates. The inverse dependence has also been noted in other streams in the
region and is likely due to the influence of surface runoff and interflow during winter
storms (Steele, 1968; Sylvester and Covay, 1978). The waters are slightly oversaturated
with respect to calcite (pre-quake saturation index was QA at both sites). Stream chemistry
at these stations is similar to the chemistry of groundwater samples which tap the Vaqueros
sandstone and Lambert shale in the highlands of the Soquel-Aptos drainage basin, the
neighboring drainage basin to the east (Johnson, 1980).
In response to the earthquake, stream chemistry increased markedly in terms of its
overall ionic strength, but the overall proportions of the major ions was nearly the same as
under pre-quake conditions. The increase in bicarbonate and calcium caused the calcite
saturation index to increase to 0.8. Water temperature in early November 1989 was 7
degrees C at both stations, nearly 4 degrees cooler than any previous measurement either in
spring or fall. By April 1990, the stream chemistry had begun to approach pre-quake
conditions at both locations. The changes in temperature and chemistry suggest that the
additional water caused by the earthquake was derived from groundwater from the
surrounding highlands. The source rock of the groundwater likely contributed to
streamflow before the earthquake, but to a smaller degree.

9
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Figure 7a. Major Ion stream chemistry as a function of time and streamflow at
San Lorenzo Park.

The response of the region is similar, but much larger in extent and magnitude to
the Lake Elsman earthquake of August 8,1989. The earlier earthquake produced a two-
fold increase in flow at the San Lorenzo Park and Pescadero stations. At the other stations,
changes were too small to be detected. The Lake Elsman earthquake of June 27,1988 (M
5.0) did not cause a detectable change at any of the gaging stations.
Anecdotal reports suggest that in two ungaged streams in basins neighboring the
basins of this study, large increases in streamflow preceded the Loma Prieta earthquake by
roughly one hour (D. Friend, personal communication; K. Tarkuchi, personal
communication). Streamflow is monitored at the stations examined in this report at 15
minute intervals, and pre-quake increases are not detectable in the data. Any precursory
changes in streamflow which occurred in ungaged streams were local in extent and not
representative of the hydrologic response of the region.

11
 HHC03 i a Mg D DISCHARGE
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Figure 7b. Major ion stream chemistry as a function of time and streamfiow at
Big Trees.

GROUNDWATER RESPONSE
Groundwater flow in the basins is predominantly controlled by fracture orientation
and density. Groundwater is derived from local precipitation and moves downward
through fracture networks (Akers and Jackson, 1977). A study of groundwater flow in the
neighboring Soquel-Aptos drainage basin indicated that 90% of all groundwater discharges
into local streams and springs (Essaid, 1990). Very little basin derived groundwater flows
directly into the ocean. Because the climate and geometry of the basins in this study are
similar to that of the Soquel-Aptos basin, it is likely that almost all groundwater flow in the
San Lorenzo and Pescadero basins discharges into local streams and springs.
There were numerous anecdotal reports of earthquake related changes in water level
and water quality of wells in the study area as well as reports of changes in spring flow.
Exact measurements of pre-quake water levels are generally not available in the region.
One well which taps an unconfined aquifer located in the eastern headwaters of the
Pescadero Creek, has been monitored weekly since 1976 and is shown in Figure 8
(location of the well is shown in Figure 9a). The hydrograph has a strong semi-annual

12
cycle. The amplitude of the semi-annual cycle is highly dependent on the amount of
rainfall, but is on the order of 5 m during years of near average rainfall. While the effects
of drought have had an influence on the hydrograph, the earthquake caused the water level
to drop 4 meters within several weeks following the earthquake.

E 690 r-50
LOMAPRIETA E
7 45
680-

640
1976 1981 1991

Figure 8. Water table elevation as a function of precipitation over the time

period 1976-1990 in a well on the eastern edge of the Pescadero basin. Well is
the northern most well in the map of Figure 9a.

Although changes in water level in the recharge areas of these basins are generally
difficult to quantify, we infer that similar drops in water level occurred in a significant
portion of the basin highlands. There are numerous wells which either went dry or
underwent a significant reduction in their capacity to pump water within several weeks after
the earthquake. We focus our attention on measured and inferred groundwater level
changes in two areas of the Santa Cruz mountains. One area which includes the well noted
above, is shown in Figure 9a. This area is located along the crest of the Santa Cruz
mountains and straddles the border of the Pescadero drainage basin. The other area near
the headwaters of the San Lorenzo River is shown in Figure 9b. These areas were selected
due to their well density and the level of cooperation on the part of the landowners. The
wells shown in Figure 9 are used by single homes and range in depth from 40 to 140 m.
Of the wells shown in Figure 9a, roughly one-half suffered a reduced capacity to
deliver water for home uses or were completely dry by January 1990. In general, the wells
which were most effected were in the southern portion of the area (where elevation is
highest). In most of the wells which were adversely affected (wells which either went dry
or no longer provided enough water for home use), changes were noted within several
weeks after the earthquake. In other affected wells, the changes were gradual and wells

13
which became dry did so over a period of 2-3 months. It is difficult to quantitatively relate
the adverse impact of the wells to a water table decline. Wells in the region which were not
adversely affected generally have water levels which arc in excess of 7 m above the well
bottom. If these conditions existed prior to the earthquake in the impacted wells, then the
water table declines produced by the earthquake would be on this order or greater.

Figure 9a. Impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on wells in the Pescadero
headwaters. Symbols indicate that the well went dry (circle), the well
developed a reduced ability to yield water for supply (square), or the well was
unaffected (triangle). Elevation contours (light lines) are in meters. Dashed line
is boundary of drainage basin.

In the San Lorenzo headwaters area (Figure 9b), wells that are adversely affected
were generally confined to two ridge tops. Wells along the northeast edge of the area and
wells located near the valley floor were not adversely impacted. Although no extensive
pre-quake water level records exist for this area, there is limited anecdotal information on
pre-quake levels in some wells. In one well which became dry, the water level was 21 m
above the bottom on 10/11/89. In another well which became dry, the water level was 40
m above the bottom during 2/89. In two wells whose water levels began to be monitored
after October 17, water levels dropped over 20 m within a period of weeks to months
following the earthquake. Subsequent measurements in the region of unaffected and
impacted (but not dry) wells over the time period 1/90-7/90 indicated that water levels
declined gradually in many wells (on the order of 1.5 m/month or less). The rates of
decline during 1990 are too gradual to be uniquely identified as being due to the Loma
Prieta earthquake. They may also be due to the effects of drought in the region. The water

14
level data suggest that the impact of the earthquake on groundwater levels in this area had
either greatly diminished or had essentially disappeared after several months following the
earthquake.

-16'

km 71

Figure 9b. Impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on wells in the San Lorenzo
headwaters. Symbols indicate that the well went dry (circle), the well
developed a reduced ability to yield water for supply (square), or the well was
unaffected (triangle). Elevation contours (light lines) are in meters. Dashed line
is boundary of drainage basin.

POSSIBLE CAUSES OF RESPONSE

The observed hydrologic changes (temporary excess streamflow, dropping water
table, changes in stream chemistry) are likely due to a common cause. The mechanism
responsible produced changes which were spatially non-uniform. Streamflow increases
ranged from a factor of 4 to 24 above pre-earthquake conditions and generally decayed
rapidly. Water table drops in the areas examined were common but patch-like in extent.
The stream chemistry changes indicate that the difference in the excess water was ionic

15
strength, not ionic composition. The mechanism which most likely explains the post-
seismic hydrologic observations is a permeability increase caused by seismically induced
fractures and microfractures.
It is difficult to ascribe the observed hydrologic changes to processes occurring at
mid-crustal depths. Transport of overpressured fluids from the mid-crust to the surface
would require highly permeable vertical pathways at great depth. Strearnflow increased at
most of the monitoring stations within 15 minutes of the earthquake, indicating that any
pore-pressure propagation due to a mid-crustal source would have to travel at a rate on the
order of 10 m/s. Assuming that pore-pressure propagation was a diffusive process, the
hydraulic diffusivity of the pathway would have to be impossibly high to allow for such
rapid rates of pore-pressure propagation. If, for example, expulsion of over-pressured
fluids at depths of 5 km were responsible for the response of the streams (a rise to peak
flow within several days of the earthquake), then the hydraulic diffusivity, c, of the
pathway would be on the order of 1 x 106 cm2/s. This value for hydraulic diffusivity is
orders of magnitude above that which has been inferred or observed in the crust (Brace,
1980; 1984). The mechanism of transport of overpressured fluids is also incompatible
with the water table drops observed in the area or the cooler temperature of the stream
water.
Collapse of near surface dilatant fractures or squeezing of near surface pore fluids
due to static compression induced by the earthquake are also unlikely mechanisms. They
run counter to the water table drops seen in the area. They also require an unrealistic
amount of pore volume collapse to account for the amount of excess stream discharge. For
example, consider the 1 billion liters of earthquake related excess discharge at San Lorenzo
Park. If we assume that this excess fluid has its source area in the near surface (to a depth
of 200 m below the water table), then there would have to be compressional strains on the
order of 3 x 10'3 in this region to account for the excess discharge. This amount of
shortening is at least an order of magnitude greater than that which can be inferred from
geodetic measurements of the displacements caused by the earthquake (Lisowski and
others, 1990).
A mechanism which accounts for both excess discharge and a lowered water table
is a wide scale increase in near-surface permeability in the study area. If the fracture
networks which control groundwater flow in the region were enhanced due to the
earthquake, groundwater flow rates would initially increase in proportion to the
permeability increase. The water table would drop because the groundwater system would
be effectively drained by the increased discharge. Areas of high elevation would be most
susceptible to water table drops because they would tend to have the highest water table
elevations prior to the earthquake.
The increased fractures and microfractures in the groundwater system would also
be expected to temporarily alter the chemistry of the groundwater. They would tend to
expose previously near-stagnant water in small pores to enhanced groundwater flow paths.
This near-stagnant pore water, because it has had a great deal of time to interact with rock-
mineral surfaces, would have a relatively high concentration of solutes. As a result of the
generation of new flow paths a greater proportion of high solute concentration water would
be expected to enter the major groundwater flow paths and the ionic strength of the exiting
groundwater would be increased.
To account for the initial surge in discharge, the fracturing would have to effectively
increase the permeability in portions of the aquifers and aquitards in the highlands by
roughly an order of magnitude. Streamflow would decay rapidly because the hydraulic

16
gradient which drives fluid flow would decay as the water table dropped. The fall in water
table height would be expected to decline at a rate similar to the decline of streamflow.
The relatively shallow depth of the water table in the highlands portions of the
region suggests that permeability increases and concomitant water table drops are
temporary in nature. If they were permanent, the numerous historic and prehistoric
earthquakes in the region would likely lower the water table to great depths. Between
earthquakes, the fracture networks likely heal and the water table partly recovers to its pre-
earthquake level. We propose that permeability in this region is a time dependent
parameter, increasing during times of seismicity and relaxing during inter-seismic periods.
The temporal nature of permeability in response to shear strain in the region would be
consistent with time dependent variability in permeability in laboratory samples subjected to
shear (Kranz and Blacic, 1984). In the laboratory work of Kranz and Blacic the cracks
were sealed by silica cementation. Because the base flow is oversaturated with respect to
calcite, we speculate that calcite cementation would be a likely mechanism for fracture
healing and concomitant permeability reduction. The time constant for this inferred
process, however, is not identifiable in this analysis of the data.
A SIMPLE DIFFUSIONAL MODEL OF HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
In order to examine the theoretical response of streamflow and groundwater levels
to permeability changes, we employ a very simple diffusional model of groundwater flow
along a hillside. Prior to the earthquake, the water table increases linearly with distance
from the stream at a rate of 0.1 m/m and flow rates in the groundwater system are constant.
Pre-quake groundwater flow rates can be estimated from the ratio of base flow to area
given in Table 1 and are on the order of 1 x 10 ^cm/s for all the drainage areas. Employing
Darcy's law and assuming the aforementioned water table gradient of 0. 1, yields a bulk
pre-quake permeability for the drainage basins of 10 milliDarcies. This permeability
estimate is obtained by assuming that the gradient of hydraulic head can be approximated
by the gradient of the water table.
Assuming that the earthquake increases permeability by an order of magnitude, the
gradient of the water table will decline and the groundwater flow rate into the stream will
initially increase by an order of magnitude. The governing equations and boundary
conditions for this simple model are:

h(x,0)=w((L-abs(x))/L) (Ib)
h(L,t)=h(-L,t)=0 (Ic)
where h is the hydraulic head, x is the horizontal distance, c is the hydraulic diffusivity, t is
time, w is the maximum height of the water table relative to the stream and L is the
maximum length of the groundwater flow path. Solution of equation 1 and use of Darcy's
law yields the groundwater flux, v, into the stream as a function of time, t:
oo

v = [4kpgwAiL]Z [(-l)n/(2n+l)]exp[-(2n+l)27c2ct/(4L2)] (2)

n=0

where k is the permeability, p is the fluid density, g is gravity and jo. is the fluid viscosity.

17
 The fit of the model to the excess flow data is shown in Figure 6. The fit is based
upon a value for the hydraulic diffusivity, c, of 3700 cmfysec, and a value for L of 2000 m.
The model is able to mimic the magnitude and decay characteristics of the streamflow.
However, the model is unable to mimic the magnitude of the groundwater response. The
model would indicate that water table drops in the high elevation regions would be 180 m
rather than the observed drops of tens of meters. This discrepancy may reflect the
inappropriateness of the assumed length scale, L. It also indicates that this model is too
simplistic to provide for more than a first order description of the hydrologic response.
CONCLUSIONS
This study has focused on the groundwater and surface water response of two
basins to the Loma Prieta earthquake. Because streamflow in the San Lorenzo River is
monitored extensively, and because the Santa Cruz mountains contain numerous land
owners who utilize groundwater supplies, the hydrologic response can be examined in
some detail. The signature of the hydrologic response is one which is consistent with
earthquake enhanced groundwater flow paths.
The enhancement of groundwater flow paths may also be responsible for
hydrologic changes seen in response to other earthquakes. This mechanism may explain
why the general response of streams to earthquakes is one of increased flow. Because
streams are usually the exit area for groundwater flow, any enhanced groundwater motion
would be readily detected in the base flow signature of the stream. For order of magnitude
increases in permeability to produce identifiable streamflow response, base flow must be a
significant contributor to the stream. In addition, the permeability increases must either be
areally extensive or occur in key locations.
The hydrologic response suggests that the shallow materials in the highlands areas
of these basins are in a state of incipient failure. Dynamic or static shear strains produced
by both the Loma Prieta and Lake Elsman earthquake are large enough to generate new
cracks and microfractures in the upper 200-300 m of the crust. The fractures generated
must be able to form a new continuous flow path or enhance an old continuous flow path.
The weak nature of the near surface is evident by the numerous active and ancient
landslides in the area. It can also be inferred from the pervasive control fracture
permeability had on the pre-earthquake state of groundwater flow in the region. This area
has been subjected to repeated earthquakes and it is likely that seismic events, both historic
and prehistoric, have had a large impact on the geologic evolution of permeability and
groundwater flow paths in the region.

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 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank the members of the South Skyline Homeowners Association for their
cooperation. Robert Coiling of the Santa Cruz Rood Control and Water Conservation
District provided the stream chemistry data. The precipitation data was collected by the
Santa Clara Valley Water District. John Hem, K. Michael Nolan and Arthur Lachenbruch
provided helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this manuscript

19
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