Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
FORECAST MODEL
Uganda
National
Meteorological
Authority
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ACCRA is a consortium initiative of Oxfam GB, Overseas Development Institute (ODI),Care International, Save the Children
UK and World Vision International. ACCRA is active in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda and World Vision leads ACCRA
in Uganda. Funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Climate Development and
Knowledge Network (CDKN).
2014
INTRODUC TION AND BACKGROUND
Four out of five people in Uganda depend on agriculture connections, printing materials, lack of defined distribution
for income and food security. Therefore, any threat to procedures as well as a non-existent dissemination budget,
agricultural production degrades Ugandas socio-economic the information seldom reached the end users especially
status and puts 80% of the population at risk of poverty the rural communities.
and hunger.
Because of the untimely delivery and the incomprehensible
Climate change is already affecting millions of people all messages of the forecast, many farmers have lost faith in
over the world. Particularly rural populations are plagued scientific meteorology services and rely almost fully on
by erratic seasons and increased frequency of droughts, their experience and indigenous knowledge for farming
floods, and other climate related hazards. These have led decision making. Research carried out by UNMA and
to failed harvests, food insecurity, insufficient food-intake ACCRA shows that even if they receive the scientific
for children and adults, and low household incomes. Lack forecast, a large proportion of the rural population still
of knowledge and information on weather and climate relies on the traditional methods of forecasting. Farmers
information exacerbate these impacts. Because of changed report that although some of these methods are no
weather patterns, farmers who rely only on indigenous longer accurate due to disappearance of certain insects,
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weather forecasting methods find it difficult to predict birds and plants and although the accuracy is very low
when to plant due to changes in the parameters used to (10%) they continue to have more confidence in the old
forecast. Even when they do, they cannot determine the familiar methods. Therefore there is a great need for the
amount of rains or the cessation period due to changes in provision of accurate scientific seasonal weather forecast
climate. Consequently, farmers lose their crops caused by including climate change adaption strategies to farmers
unpredictable climate and weather conditions. in rural communities.
Due to logistical challenges, developing countries often To increase farmers resilience and adaptive capacity
experience difficulties in distributing information to to climate change related impacts and disasters and
farmers on weather and climate conditions. In Uganda, strengthen early warning, UNMA with support from the
the seasonal climate forecasts issued by the Uganda Africa Climate Change resilience Alliance (ACCRA) - have
National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) have been introduced a simplified easily understandable seasonal
bulky, written in technical language using complicated weather forecast that is translated into local languages
terminology and only published in English, which is not with sector specific advisories.
widely spoken by the rural population. Furthermore, the
forecasts were only disseminated through email from The initiative started in 2012 and this booklet is about the
UNMA to other Government ministries, departments and experiences and lessons learned during the first two years.
Local Governments. However, due to unreliable internet
T H E W E AT H E R F O R E C A S T M O D E L
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Technical
weather
forecast
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Press release Ugandan National
Technical Expert
Meeting
Translation
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Dissemination
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User feedback surveys
THE PROCESS
In the beginning of a new season, climate and weather stakeholders from different ministries and departments, civil
society organisations, research institutions and private enterprises - representing various sectors including agriculture,
health, disaster management, water, environment, energy and wild life - meet to discuss and simplify, and to work
out advisories for the seasonal forecast. At the half day meeting participants go through the forecast for every district
in Uganda and develop advisory messages to compliment the climate predictions. In the end of the meeting the
simplified district forecasts with explanatory notes, the advisories and last seasons performance are collected into a
single document.
A press release is issued by the Minister of Water and Environment immediately after the national technical expert
meeting and published in the national newspaper the New Vision.
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STEP 4 T R A N S L AT I O N
The forecasts are translated into local languages by specialised translators who have been trained in meteorology
terminology. The translators work with UNMAs communications department to clarify any uncertain issues. The
translations takes three to four days in total and the various versions are produced in electronic text soft copies and pre-
recorded audio CDs.
STEP 5 DISSEMINATION
The forecasts are disseminated by various actors such as the Government, ACCRA consortium members and other networks,
and civil society organisations using distribution channels like the internet, local FM radio stations, primary and secondary
schools, churches, mosques, markets, community and regional meetings, print media and mobile phones.
To assess utilisation and impact, UNMA and ACCRA have conducted rural community feedback surveys at least once per
year. The feedback results have assisted drafting a national dissemination strategy. The feedback surveys are yet to be
extended to other users beyond rural community. Future plans include institutionalising the feedback mechanism as
part of UNMA M&E and reporting system.
I M PA C T O F T H E W E AT H E R F O R E C A S T M O D E L
E M P O W E R I N G W O M E N T H R O U G H A CC E S S TO I N F O R M AT I O N
Women are typically more involved in agricultural work out to not be the most appropriate tool for communicating
than men. Whereas men supervise the process, sell the to women. First of all, many women either do not own
produce and manage the household economy, women radios or they do not have time to listen to them due to
cultivate the gardens, buy seeds, plant, weed, harvest and their busy schedule working in the garden and performing
process the produce. All of which are directly affected by domestic chores. Secondly, since men own the radios
weather conditions. Therefore, to ensure sustained impact, they often move around with them or they control which
it is very important to specifically target women when programmes to listen to based on their personal interests,
disseminating seasonal climate information. which are mostly political debates, football matches or
news. Therefore there is a need to open up communication
For example, using FM radio stations as a channel to channels specifically designed to reach women.
disseminate the seasonal forecasts and advisories turned
Research carried out by UNMA and ACCRA staff in selected Traditionally, we predicted the weather by looking for
implementation areas indicated that men and women signs; strong winds and dust followed by leaves drying
have different preferences when it comes to receiving off meant the dry season was about to begin whereas
information. Through gender disaggregated group appearance of mist, frogs and changes in the sky indicated
discussions, women and men were facilitated to discuss the arrival of the rainy season. But the seasons are no
and agree on the best way of disseminating the seasonal longer predictable. Everybody in this area has noticed
forecast. During the discussions women proposed local climate change; the rain delays and as a consequence the
community groups, markets and churches. These are level of agricultural production has decreased. It is very
traditional gathering places for women and by using them important for us to know the scientific forecast so that we
as channels of communication, valuable information will can plan accordingly. If the forecast predicts drought then
not risk getting lost. Men, on the other hand, still prefer we can store food and prepare our gardens early.
radios, newspapers and local council meetings as main
platforms for obtaining new information. I receive the information at community meetings from
FAPAD (Facilitation for Peace and Development, a civil
This shows that knowledge and information delivery society organisation) and the forecasts are also posted at
channels need to be analysed in relation to community and the sub-county headquarter. I have planted eucalyptus
household power balances in order to reach all population trees to prevent flooding around the house and raised the
groups. Based on the results of the focus groups discussions, veranda to prevent rain water from getting inside the hut. I
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the dissemination strategy for the seasonal forecasts has have grown cassava, invested in poultry, and fast maturing
been modified to accommodate the different needs of the crops. I did it because the forecasts predicted enough rain
community groups - hereunder women and people living and because cassava is resistant. We have also dug drainage
in remote places in particular. channels in the garden to prevent the crop from drowning.
Despite the success of the simplified seasonal climate Uganda does not have adequate weather equipment. Most
forecast, there are still challenges that need to be addressed districts have weather stations but many of them are not
before the model can achieve its potential impact. functional and those that are, lack staff to record and report
the data. This makes it difficult for UNMA and other weather
Traditional forecasting is still being used but instead of distributors to collect and distribute accurate weather
discouraging it, there is a need to organise the traditional information.
forecasters and give them a forum to use their methods
and compare them with the scientific information to find To ensure that the right information reach the right
convergences and dis-convergences. This will support local people, it is necessary to set up a dissemination strategy
confidence in the scientific data and encourage traditional using government structures, civil society networks, and
forecasters to use it in their work. In districts where there has private sector agents. To make dissemination effective and
been a focused effort on explaining the scientific forecast sustainable as possible, it should be coordinated and owned
and the advisories to the farmers, the implementation rate by the central government. This implies that government
has been considerably higher and as a direct result, less staff at all levels and representatives from other sectors
farmers are exposed to food insecurity. should be trained in the importance for weather and climate
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information and the linkage with development. Financing of
Another challenge concerns the accuracy of the weather these processes should be integrated in central and local
information. Like many other developing countries, governments plans and budgets.
For sustainability, dissemination should be done through There is a need to have focal persons in the
existing government structures, civil society networks, districts who are charged with dissemination and
community groups and private sector agencies. monitoring the access and use of the seasonal
For better financing, different sectors and departments forecasts. The focal persons should be responsible
of Government need to include budget allocation for for forwarding the forecasts to the relevant district
dissemination and follow up of the use of the seasonal departments and to the lower levels of government.
forecasts. FM radio stations should be provided with
Different actors in Government, CSOs and Private accurate information and they should quote the
sector need to be trained by UNMA on the importance source to create accountability. Likewise, Local
of the weather and climate information, linking the FM radio stations should be included in UNMAs
costs and benefits to development. This will interest seasonal forecast emailing list.
them to disseminate and evaluate the performance of Media staff should be trained on weather and
the seasonal forecasts for rural communities. climate issues to understand the importance of
Policy makers should be involved to increase financing accurate weather forecasting.
to UNMA for efficient and effective delivery. Diversified dissemination channels help to reach
The seasonal climate forecast should be translated into more categories of people: internet, local FM radio
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all languages. In total, Uganda has 54 local languages stations, primary and secondary schools, churches,
but the current funding only allows translation into mosques, markets, community and regional
12 languages. By increasing the number of languages meetings, print media and mobile phones.
and by deepening the area specific advisories, more The seasonal forecast information should be
farmers and particularly women will be able to access disseminated on time so that farmers are able
and benefit from the information. to use it for planning and decision making on
farming and other activities.
CONTACT
Deus Bamanya
Acting Director Uganda National Meteorological Authority