RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17 11 FEB 2017

CESC
NEUTRAL
INDUSTRY POWER Stable business; restructuring trigger
CMP (As on 10 Feb 2017) Rs 842 CESCs 3QFY17 result was ahead of our estimates 468/sh for SA business and negative Rs 16/sh for
Target Price Rs 822 led by Ind-AS adjustment on contribution from Spencers). Valuation upsides are limited post the
Nifty 8,794
customers (Rs 410mn) and higher merchant sales recent run-up. Downgrade to NEUTRAL.
(35 MUs vs. 7 MUs QoQ). These gains were partly
Sensex 28,334 Highlights of the quarter
negated by the WBERC order disallowing recovery
KEY STOCK DATA of a negative bid on its captive mine. Consequently, Chandrapur plant had signed a 200MW PPA with
PAT at Rs 1.5bn grew marginally by 5% YoY. The Noida Power in 2QFY17, which is still awaiting
Bloomberg CESC IN
Chandrapur plant already has a PPA for ~370MW regulatory approval. Supplies under both the existing
No. of Shares (mn) 133 PPAs (Noida Power and Tangedco) have commenced
and another PPA of 200MW with Noida Power is
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 112/1,669 awaiting regulatory approval, thereby improving its in 3QFY17.
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 303 prospects going ahead. Chandrapur plant operated at 29% PLF and is
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) We continue to remain constructive on CESC, given expected to be profitable in 2HFY18E as supplies
52 Week high / low Rs 849/405 its rock solid power business. Despite the negative begin for both the current and proposed PPAs.
WBERC order, the standalone business would Haldia plant operated at 76.7% PLF.
3M 6M 12M
generate steady cash flows of over Rs 11bn in
Absolute (%) 41.5 34.3 91.4 FY17E. Further cash flows would accrue from the
Spencer continues to witness an improvement in
performance. Average sales grew 5.6% YoY to Rs
Relative (%) 38.6 32.3 72.2 Haldia plant. The cash drain at the Chandrapur
1,714/sqft/month and store-level EBITDA grew 24%
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
plant would be arrested in FY18E, as it signs a PPA
YoY to Rs 108/sq ft/month.
for the balance capacity. With losses easing in
Promoters 49.93
Spencers (36% YoY growth in store EBITDA), the Near-term view: Steady earnings, coupled with the
FIs & Local MFs 20.18 mgmt is exploring value unlocking through an IPO. trigger of value unlocking in Spencers is likely to bear
FIIs 21.76 We increase our SOTP based TP to Rs 822/sh (Rs well on the stock.
Public & Others 8.13 Financial Summary - Standalone
Source : BSE Year Ending March (Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 16,200 15,830 2 20,160 (20) 61,888 64,931 70,856 73,379 76,643
EBITDA 4,110 3,880 6 5,330 (23) 15,489 15,983 18,535 18,620 19,381
Pawan Parakh, CFA
APAT 1,520 1,450 5 2,420 (37) 6,977 7,070 7,971 8,457 8,880
pawan.parakh@hdfcsec.com
Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.4 10.9 5 18.2 (37) 52.4 53.1 59.8 63.5 66.7
+91-22-6171-7314
P/E (x) 16.1 15.9 14.1 13.3 12.6
Ashutosh Mehta, ACA EV/EBITDA(x) 11.1 10.6 9.3 9.0 8.4
ashutosh.mehta@hdfcsec.com RoE 9.2 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.8
+91-22-3078-8241 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>
 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Quarterly Financials Snapshot - Standalone

(Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%)
Net Sales 16,200 15,830 2 20,160 (20)
Cost of power purchased 6,600 5,400 6,950
Confluence of higher
Cost of fuel 2,550 3,480 3,660
merchant sales (35 MUs vs. 7
Employee Expense 1,930 1,840 2,000
MUs QoQ) and the WBERC
Other Operating Expenses 1,010 1,230 2,220
order disallowing a recovery
EBITDA 4,110 3,880 6 5,330 (23)
of negative bid on CERCs
Interest Cost 1,080 1,080 1,180
captive mine, resulted in
Depreciation 980 890 990
APAT growth of 5% YoY
Other Income (incl E/o items) 300 340 320 0
PBT 2,350 2,250 4 3,480 (32)
Tax 830 800 1,060
Reported PAT 1,520 1,450 5 2,420 (37)
E/o (adj for tax) 0 0 0
APAT 1,520 1,450 5 2,420 (37)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis - Standalone

(Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (bps) 2QFY17 QoQ (bps)
A sharp drop in generation Power Cost as % of Net Sales 40.7 34.1 663 34.5 627
from Budge Budge and Fuel Cost as % of Net Sales 15.7 22.0 -624 18.2 -241
Southern plants led to lower Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales 11.9 11.6 29 9.9 199
fuel costs Other operating expenses as % of Net Sales 6.2 7.8 -154 11.0 -478
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.4 24.5 86 26.4 -107
Net Profit Margin (%) 9.4 9.2 22 12.0 -262
Tax Rate (%) 35.3 35.6 -24 30.5 486
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Operational Parameters Snapshot: Standalone

1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Overall PLF declined to 47.1% Total generation (MUs) 2,074 1,976 1,598 1,340 1,911 1,717 1,170
in 3QFY17 led by lower -Budge Budge 1,602 1,502 1,387 1,302 1,570 1,553 1,073
generation in Budge Budge -Southern 295 257 112 0 168 41 24
-Titagarh 177 217 99 38 173 123 73
and Southern plants
PLF 84.4 79.5 64.3 53.9 76.9 69.1 47.1
-Budge Budge 97.8 90.7 83.8 78.6 94.8 93.8 64.8
-Southern 56.3 48.5 21.1 0.0 31.7 7.7 4.5
-Titagarh 60.0 72.8 33.2 12.7 58.0 41.2 24.5
Total Sales (MUs) 2,562 2,566 2,239 2,039 2,782 2,654 2,090
T&D Loss 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
Power purchase (MUs) 1,016 1,125 1,047 1,043 1,409 1,398 1,290
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FSL Financials: Snapshot

(Rs mn) 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Sales 7,469 7,925 8,178 8,525 8,935 8,844 8,854
Personnel Expenses 4,997 5,342 5,579 5,804 5,817 5,950 5,901
Operating Expenses 1,576 1,599 1,594 1,776 1,926 1,768 1,882
EBITDA 897 984 1,005 945 1,192 1,126 1,072
Depreciation 172 183 160 147 163 160 156
Interest 142 130 124 130 132 103 99
Other Income 45 9 21 19 19 -2 14
Profit before tax 628 681 742 688 916 861 831
Tax 63 61 70 95 183 148 134
Minority Interest 2 1 2 0 0 1 -2
Net profit 564 619 671 592 734 713 700
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Units Generation And PLF Revenue And EBITDA Margin Trajectory

Generation (mn units) PLF - RHS Revenue EBITDA Margin - RHS
3,000 120.0 25,000 Rs mn 35%
2,500 100.0 30%
20,000
2,000 80.0 25%
15,000 20%
1,500 60.0
10,000 15%
1,000 40.0
10%
500 20.0 5,000
5%
0 0.0 0 0%

1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17

1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Spencers Average Store Sales & EBITDA Spencers Same Store Sales & EBITDA
Average sales (Rs/Sqft/ mth) Same store sales (Rs/Sqft/ mth)
Store EBITDA (Rs/sqft/mth) - RHS Same store EBITDA (Rs/sqft pm)
Spencers continues to show 140 2,000 140

improvement in performance, 120 120

1,500
1,500
thereby reducing the 100 100
requirement for loss funding 1,000 80 80
1,000
from CESC 60 60

40 500 40
500
20 20
0 0
0 0

1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Key Changes In Estimates

Previous estimates Revised estimates Change (% / bps)
FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
PAT (Rs mn) 7,162 7,544 7,927 7,971 8,457 8,880 11.3% 12.1% 12.0%
Core RoE (%) 16.7% 16.8% 16.8% 19.3% 19.3% 19.3% 250 247 245
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

CESC: SOTP Valuation

Business Valuation basis Value Rs/sh
Distribution (Regulated) 1.5x of regulated equity of Sept-18 41,566 468
Improvement in Chandrapur
Haldia 1.5x of invested equity capital 11,500 129
and Spencer could provide
substantial upsides to our Chandrapur 0.25x invested equity capital 12,300 46
SOTP over the next year Surya Vidyut 1x P/B of FY18E 1,553 12
Power business Total 66,919 655

Spencers 2x annual cash loss -1,057 -16

Mall P/B 2,875 22
Firstsource Solutions CMP and 25% holdco discount 10,456 100
Non Power business Total 12,274 106

C&CE (ex-AAD) 8,086 61

Target Price 87,278 822
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Valuations
MCap CMP TP EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company Rating
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
NTPC Ltd 1,417 172 BUY 201 12.2 13.5 15.9 14.1 12.7 10.8 11.6 10.8 9.7 10.9 11.3 12.2
PGCIL 1,046 200 BUY 231 14.6 17.2 19.6 13.7 11.6 10.2 9.5 8.4 7.5 16.7 17.3 17.5
CESC Ltd 107 806 NEU 822 59.8 63.5 66.7 13.5 12.7 12.1 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.9 8.9 8.8
JSW Energy Ltd 103 63 NEU 59 3.8 4.1 5.1 16.6 15.3 12.2 7.1 7.3 6.8 7.1 7.6 9.1
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Income Statement - Standalone Balance Sheet - Standalone

(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Revenues 61,888 64,931 70,856 73,379 76,643 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 12.3 4.9 9.1 3.6 4.4 Share Capital 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332
Material Expenses 36,659 38,757 41,252 43,071 44,957 Reserves 79,467 85,024 90,663 96,646 102,929
Employee Expenses 6,941 7,488 7,927 8,367 8,806 Total Shareholders Funds 80,799 86,356 91,995 97,978 104,261
SG&A Expenses 2,800 2,703 3,141 3,320 3,499 Long Term Debt 60,420 55,646 56,527 57,408 58,290
Total Expenses 46,400 48,948 52,321 54,759 57,263 Short Term Debt 11,411 14,590 14,590 14,590 14,590
EBITDA 15,489 15,983 18,535 18,620 19,381 Total Debt 71,831 70,236 71,117 71,998 72,879
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.0 24.6 26.2 25.4 25.3 Net Deferred Taxes - - - - -
EBITDA Growth (%) 8.1 3.2 16.0 0.5 4.1 Long Term Provisions &
22,677 25,848 27,448 29,048 30,648
Depreciation 3,431 3,692 3,879 4,043 4,208 Others
EBIT 12,058 12,291 14,656 14,577 15,173 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 175,307 182,439 190,560 199,024 207,788
Other Income (Including EO APPLICATION OF FUNDS
848 1,231 1,256 1,281 1,306
Items) Net Block 92,338 96,966 100,087 103,044 105,836
Interest 4,079 4,532 4,525 4,582 4,639 CWIP 2,617 1,960 1,960 1,960 1,960
PBT 8,827 8,990 11,387 11,276 11,840 Investments 49,366 53,515 58,015 58,015 58,015
Tax (Incl Deferred) 1,850 1,920 3,416 2,819 2,960 Total Non-current Assets
RPAT 6,977 7,070 7,971 8,457 8,880 Inventories 144,321 152,442 160,063 163,019 165,811
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Debtors 4,055 3,165 4,659 4,825 5,040
- - - - -
Tax) Other Current Assets 13,817 9,678 15,530 16,083 16,799
APAT 6,977 7,070 7,971 8,457 8,880 Cash & equivalents 14,699 14,610 17,153 17,444 17,819
APAT Growth (%) 7.0 1.3 12.7 6.1 5.0 Total Current Assets 12,287 13,366 11,597 16,752 22,268
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 52.4 53.1 59.8 63.5 66.7 Creditors 44,858 40,820 48,939 55,103 61,925
EPS Growth (%) 0.9 1.3 12.7 6.1 5.0 Other Current Liabilities &
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research 10,314 8,414 14,559 15,078 15,749
Provns
Total Current Liabilities 3,558 2,409 3,882 4,021 4,200
Net Current Assets 13,873 10,822 18,442 19,099 19,948
TOTAL APPLICATION OF
30,985 29,998 30,497 36,005 41,977
FUNDS
Total Non-current Assets 175,307 182,439 190,560 199,024 207,788
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Cash Flow Statement - Standalone Key Ratios - Standalone

(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Reported PBT 8,827 8,990 11,387 11,276 11,840 PROFITABILITY %
Non-operating & EO items (848) (1,231) (1,256) (1,281) (1,306) GPM 40.8 40.3 41.8 41.3 41.3
Interest Expenses 4,079 4,532 4,525 4,582 4,639 EBITDA margin 25.0 24.6 26.2 25.4 25.3
Depreciation 3,431 3,692 3,879 4,043 4,208 APAT margin 11.3 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6
Working capital change (9,206) 5,237 (669) 1,247 1,144 RoE 9.2 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.8
Tax Paid (1,850) (1,920) (3,416) (2,819) (2,960) Core RoCE (RoIC) 9.0 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.0
Other operating items 5,451 675 - - - RoCE 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1
OPERATING CASH FLOW (a) 9,884 19,975 14,450 17,049 17,565 EFFICIENCY
Capex (8,748) (8,257) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) Tax Rate (%) 21.0 21.4 30.0 25.0 25.0
Free Cash Flow 1,136 11,718 7,450 10,049 10,565 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Investments (6,118) (4,149) (4,500) - - Inventory (days) 23.9 17.8 24.0 24.0 24.0
Non-operating Income 848 1,231 1,256 1,281 1,306 Debtors (days) 81.5 54.4 80.0 80.0 80.0
INVESTING CASH FLOW (b) (14,018) (11,175) (10,244) (5,719) (5,694) Other Current Assets (days) 86.7 82.1 88.4 86.8 84.9
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 14,045 (1,595) 881 881 881 Payables (days) 60.8 47.3 75.0 75.0 75.0
Interest (4,079) (4,532) (4,525) (4,582) (4,639) Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 21.0 13.5 20.0 20.0 20.0
FCFE 11,103 5,592 3,806 6,348 6,807 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 110.3 93.5 97.4 95.8 93.9
Share Capital Issuance 76 - - - - Debt/EBITDA (x) 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.9 3.8
Dividend (1,436) (1,596) (2,331) (2,474) (2,597) Net D/E (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
FINANCING CASH FLOW (c) 8,607 (7,722) (5,975) (6,174) (6,355) Interest Coverage (x) 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.3
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 4,473 1,079 (1,770) 5,155 5,516 PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
Closing Cash & Equivalents 12,287 13,366 11,597 16,752 22,268 EPS 52.4 53.1 59.8 63.5 66.7
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research CEPS 78.1 80.8 88.9 93.8 98.2
Dividend 9.0 10.0 15.0 15.9 16.7
Book Value 606.5 648.2 690.6 735.5 782.6
VALUATION
P/E (x) 16.1 15.9 14.1 13.3 12.6
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 10.6 9.3 9.0 8.4
EV/Revenues (x) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1
OCF/EV (%) 5.8 11.8 8.4 10.2 10.8
FCF/EV (%) 0.7 6.9 4.3 6.0 6.5
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 9.9 5.0 3.4 5.7 6.1
Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.0
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
CESC TP 12-Apr-16 491 BUY 637
900
20-May-16 552 BUY 637
800 11-Jul-16 610 BUY 685
700 13-Dec-16 623 BUY 721
11-Feb-17 842 NEU 822
600

500
Rating Definitions
400
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Apr-16
Sep-15

Feb-16

Sep-16

Feb-17
Jun-16
Jul-15

Jul-16
Mar-16
Dec-15

Dec-16
Oct-15

Oct-16
Aug-15

Aug-16
Nov-15

Jan-16

Nov-16

Jan-17
May-16

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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 CESC : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Disclosure:
We, Pawan Parakh, CFA & Ashutosh Mehta, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No

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Institutional Equities
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Board : +91-22-6171 7330
www.hdfcsec.com
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