HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

01 March, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 STRATEGY FOR THE DAY

GBPINR MAR FUT. SELL BELOW 83.30 SL 83.60 TGT 82.90

MAJOR CURRENCY CURRENCY VIEW POINT

RUPEE RESILIENT TO STRONGER DOLLAR

Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Indian rupee continue to outperform against major currency. The
Close
USDINR 66.69 66.71 -0.017 -0.03% local currency strengthen again American dollar even the dollar
DXY INDX 101.33 101.12 0.210 0.21% index surged against basket of six currencies.
EURUSD 1.058 1.058 0.001 0.06% Rupee closed at 66.69, up 0.03% from its previous close of 66.71.
GBPUSD 1.239 1.238 0.001 0.05% The 10-year bond yield rose to 6.871% compared to its Monday's
USDJPY 112.900 112.770 0.130 0.12% close of 6.879%.
DG USDINR 66.903 66.961 -0.058 -0.09% Indias economic growth beat the estimates, had almost no impact
of demonetisation shock clampdown in November. The surprising
GLOBAL INDICES resilience in growth masks job and revenue losses at small
companies, which employ as much as 40% of the countrys workers
Prev. and are the secret to Indias growth, according to some economists
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close and lobby groups. Gross domestic product will probably grow 7.1%
SGX NIFTY 8926.0 8911.5 15 0.16% in the year through March after a 7.9% expansion the previous
NIFTY 8879.6 8896.7 -17 -0.19% year, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement. While thats the
SENSEX 28743.3 28812.9 -70 -0.24% slowest pace since 2014, its faster than the 6.8% median estimate
HANG-SENG 23819.8 23740.7 79 0.33% in a Bloomberg survey. GDP expanded 7% in October-December,
NIKKEI 19222.6 19119.0 104 0.54%
compared with 6.1% in the survey and the previous quarters
SHANGHAI 3252.4 3241.7 11 0.33%
revised 7.4%.
S&P INDEX 2363.6 2369.8 -6 -0.26%
The one month non- deliverable forward last quoted at 66.99 from
DOW JONES 20812.2 20837.4 -25 -0.12%
yesterdays 66.92 suggesting flat to positive start at domestic
NASDAQ 5825.4 5861.9 -36 -0.62%
FTSE 7263.4 7253.0 10 0.14% bourses.
CAC 4858.6 4845.2 13 0.28% Technically, spot USDINR is forming lower highs and lows indicating
DAX 11834.4 11822.7 12 0.10% bearish view with the immediate support at 66.32 and 66.07. The
bias remains bearish till it closes above 67.27.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Dollar Erases Gains Against Yen After Trump says Historic Tax Reform

The dollar erased its earlier gains today as U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a key policy speech to the
Congress, leaving a jittery market devoid of any details on his economic stimulus in the early part of his speech.
My economic team is developing historic tax reform that will reduce the tax rate on our companies so they can
compete and thrive anywhere and with anyone, President Trump says in his first address to a joint session of
Congress. He also added, I am sending the Congress a budget that rebuilds the military, eliminates the Defense
sequester, and calls for one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history,. Trump to Ask
Congress for $1t in Infrastructure Investment.
The USDJPY eased to around 112.80 from the day's high of 113.375 yen hit earlier on hopes the Federal Reserve may
raise interest rates this month.
ICE Dollar index last quoted at 101.33 after touching high of 101.57 early today. The buck is in consolidation of
101.76 to 100.41.

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Technical Observations

USDINR forming lower top lower

bottom on daily scale indicating
continuation of bearish trend.
The formation of doji candlestick
after two bearish candle indicating
indecisiveness among traders.
Momentum oscillators given positive
cross over and about to exit
oversold zone suggesting short term
bounce.
The recent price action suggesting
continuation of bearish trend with
downside 66.32 and 66.07.
The outlook remains bearish till pair
surpasses 67.27 on closing basis.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View

USDINR MAR17 66.93 66.96 66.77 66.85 66.89 67.00 67.08 67.12 Short Buildup
EURINR MAR17 71.05 71.04 70.77 70.85 70.95 71.14 71.22 71.32 Short Covering
GBPINR MAR17 83.29 83.31 82.95 83.08 83.18 83.41 83.54 83.64 Short Covering
JPYINR MAR17 59.70 59.66 59.36 59.45 59.57 59.78 59.87 59.99 Short Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.10 66.79 68.27 66.65 68.86 66.07 66.82 67.13 67.69 67.51 67.28
EURINR 71.19 70.28 73.35 70.28 77.01 70.28 70.65 71.52 71.68 72.41 73.75
GBPINR 84.00 83.04 86.27 82.64 100.49 80.89 83.22 83.66 83.76 83.75 86.83
JPYINR 59.50 58.83 60.49 58.40 68.11 57.25 59.33 59.32 59.04 60.47 62.64

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.75 66.82 66.69 66.69 -0.02 -- -- -- --
USDINR MAR. FUT. 67.00 67.04 66.92 66.93 -0.04 1653383 13324 548692 -220121
SPOT EURINR 70.66 70.78 70.58 70.69 0.08 -- -- -- --
EURINR MAR. FUT. 70.96 71.12 70.94 71.05 0.05 73925 -1011 44582 5482
SPOT GBPINR 82.93 83.09 82.84 82.90 0.10 -- -- -- --
GBPINR MAR. FUT. 83.22 83.43 83.20 83.29 0.07 42381 -1671 50685 -8865
SPOT JPYINR 59.24 59.49 59.24 59.43 0.00 -- -- -- --
JPYINR MAR. FUT. 59.56 59.74 59.53 59.70 -0.02 14650 636 17210 -5536

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/28/2017 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Jan -- 62942 43254

02/28/2017 17:30 IN GVA YoY 4Q 6.0% 6.6% 6.7%
02/28/2017 17:30 IN GDP YoY 4Q 6.1% 7.0% 7.4%
02/28/2017 17:30 IN GDP Annual Estimate YoY 2017 6.8% 7.1% 7.9%
02/28/2017 19:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%
02/28/2017 19:00 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q S 1.3% 1.2% 1.30%
02/28/2017 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 53.0 57.4 50.3

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

03/01/2017 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Mfg Feb -- 50.4

03/01/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb F 55.5 55.5
03/01/2017 15:00 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Feb 55.8 55.9
03/01/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 24-Feb 68.7k 67.9k
03/01/2017 19:00 US PCE Deflator YoY Jan 2.00% 1.60%
03/01/2017 19:00 US PCE Core YoY Jan 1.80% 1.70%
03/01/2017 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb F 54.5 54.3
03/01/2017 20:30 US ISM Manufacturing Feb 55.6 56

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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Any position in Instruments NO

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]