11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

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Explaining Donald Trump's Shock Election Win

Five factors behind Americas staggering decision

By Anthony J. Gaughan, The Conversation on November 9, 2016 Valo en espaol

Credit: Getty Images

ThefollowingessayisreprintedwithpermissionfromTheConversation,an
onlinepublicationcoveringthelatestresearch.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/explainingdonaldtrumpsshockelectionwin/ 1/11
11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

ApopulistwavethatbeganwithBrexitinJunereachedtheUnitedStatesin
stunningfashiononTuesdaynight.InoneofthebiggestupsetsinAmerican
politicalhistory,DonaldTrumpwonatrulyhistoricvictoryintheU.S.presidential
election.

Trumpsremarkablydecisivewinstunnedmostpoliticalpundits,myselfincluded.
Throughoutthecampaign,Trumpseemedtohaveapollingceilingofabout44
percentandheconsistentlyhadthehighestunfavorabilityratingofanymajor
partynomineeinhistory.Accordingly,monthsagoIpredictedthatClintonwould
easilybeatTrump.

Then,atthebeginningofOctober,theuproaroverTrumpslewdandoffensive
remarksontheAccessHollywoodvideotape,combinedwiththeescalating
numberofwomenwhoaccusedTrumpofsexualassault,seemedtofinishoffhis
campaign.RightupuntilTuesdayafternoon,therefore,acomfortablevictoryfor
Clintonseemedlikeaforegoneconclusion.

ButIwasdeadwrong.Trumpwonasweepingvictoryinthepresidentialrace.His
nightbeganwithcriticalvictoriesinFlorida,NorthCarolinaandOhio,threestates
essentialtohispathto270electoralvotes.Asthenightworeon,Clintonsblue
wallcollapsedamidaredtidethatsweptacrossthecountryfromtheAtlantic
coasttotheRockyMountains.ThebluestatesofPennsylvania,Michigan,
WisconsinandIowafelltoTrumplikedominoes.Theelectionreturnsmadeclear
thatTrumpwouldcarryover300electoralvotes,morethanenoughtowinthe
presidency.

Itsextremelyearlytodrawconclusionsaboutthe2016electionresults,buthere
arefivefactorsthatatleastpartiallyexplainwhathappened.

1. SILENT TRUMP VOTE

TherereallywasasilentTrumpvotethatthepollsfailedtopickupon.The
nationwidepollingaveragegaveClintonabouta3pointleadoverall,andthe
statebystatepollsindicatedthatshewouldwinatleast300electoralvotes.

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11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

Butthepollswereaswrongasthepundits.Problemswiththepolls
methodologieswillundoubtedlybeidentifiedinthedaysandweeksahead.

ItseemsequallyreasonabletoconcludethatmanyTrumpvoterskepttheir
intentionstothemselvesandrefusedtocooperatewiththepollsters.

TheextraordinaryroleofFBIDirectorJamesComeyinthepresidentialcampaign
cannotbeunderestimatedeither.TwoweeksagoClintonseemedonthevergeof
winningadoubledigitvictory.ButComeysOct.28lettertoCongress,which
announcedthattheFBIwasreopeningitsinvestigationintoClintonsState
Departmentemails,changedthemomentumoftherace.Clintonretookthe
pollingleadattheendoflastweek,butthefinalpollsmaskedthelastingdamage
thattheComeyletterhaddonetohercampaign.

Whatevertheultimateexplanationforthepollsfailuretopredicttheelections
outcome,thefutureofthepollingindustryisinquestionafterTuesday.Trumps
astoundingvictorydemonstratedthatthepollssimplycannotbetrusted.

2. CELEBRITY BEAT ORGANIZATION

AlongstandingassumptionofpoliticalcampaignsisthatafirstrateGetoutthe
Voteorganizationisindispensable.Theconventionalwisdomin2016thusheld
thatTrumpslackofagrassrootsorganizationwasahugeliabilityforhis
campaign.

Butasitturnedout,hedidntneedanorganization.Trumphasbeeninthepublic
eyeforover30years,whichmeantthatheenteredtheracewithnearly100
percentnamerecognition.Trumpslongstandingstatusasacelebrityenabledhim
togarnerrelentlessmediaattentionfromthemomentheenteredtherace.One
studyfoundthatbyMay2016TrumphadreceivedtheequivalentofUS$3billion
infreeadvertisingfromthemediacoveragehiscampaigncommanded.Trump
seemedtointuitivelyunderstandthatthecontroversialthingshesaidonthe
campaigntrailcapturedthevotersattentioninawaythatseriouspolicyspeeches
nevercould.

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11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

Mostimportantofall,hehadhighlymotivatedvoters.Trumpspopulistrhetoric
andopencontemptforcivilityandbasicstandardsofdecencyenabledhimto
connectwiththeRepublicanbaselikenocandidatesinceRonaldReagan.Trump
didntplaybythenormalrulesofpolitics,andhisvoterslovedhimforit.

Trumpsvictorywouldseemtoheraldaneweraofcelebritypoliticians.He
showedthatacharismaticmediasavvyoutsiderhassignificantadvantagesover
traditionalpoliticiansandconventionalpoliticalorganizationsintheinternetage.
Inthefuture,wemayseemanymoreunconventionalpoliticiansintheTrump
mold.

3. POPULIST REVOLT AGAINST IMMIGRATION

AND TRADE

Itwilltakedaystosortthroughthedatatofigureoutwhatissuesresonatedmostly
deeplywithTrumpsbase.

Butimmigrationandtradeseemvirtuallycertaintobeatthetopofthelist.Trump
bethiswholecampaignontheideathatpopularhostilitytoliberalimmigration
andfreetradepolicieswouldpropelhimtotheWhiteHouse.

Fromthebeginningtotheendofhiscampaign,hereturnedtimeandagainto
thosetwocornerstoneissues.Inhisannouncementspeech,hepromisedtobuilda
wallontheMexicanborderanddeport11millionunauthorizedimmigrants.He
alsopledgedtotearupfreetradeagreementsandbringbackmanufacturingjobs.
Fromdayone,hemadexenophobicandnationalisticpoliciesthecenterpieceof
hiscampaign.

CriticsrightfullycondemnedhisviciousattacksonMexicansandMuslims,but
Trumpclearlyunderstoodthathostilitytowardimmigrationandglobalizationran
deepamongacriticalmassofAmericanvoters.

HisdecisiontofocusonimmigrationandtradepaidoffinspadesonElectionDay.
ItsnocoincidencethatTrumpdidexceptionallywellinthetraditionallyblue
statesofWisconsin,MichiganandPennsylvania,allofwhichhavelarge

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11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

populationsofwhiteworkingclassvoters.PreviousRepublicannomineessuchas
JohnMcCain,whoembracedgenerousimmigrationpolicies,andMittRomney,
whoadvocatedfreetrade,nevermanagedtoconnectwithbluecollarvotersinthe
GreatLakesregion.

ButTrumpsantiimmigrationandprotectionisttradepoliciesgavehimaunique
openingwithwhiteworkingclassvoters,andhemadethemostofit.

4. OUTSIDERS AGAINST INSIDERS

TrumpwillbethefirstpresidentwithoutelectiveofficeexperiencesinceDwight
Eisenhowerinthe1950s.Eisenhower,however,servedassupremeallied
commanderinEuropeduringWorldWarIIandhadunrivaledexpertiseinforeign
affairs.

SohowdidTrumpmakehislackofgovernmentexperienceanassetinthe
campaign?

Theanswerlayintheintenseandwidespreadpublichostilitytothepolitical,
mediaandbusinessestablishmentsthatleadthecountry.Trustininstitutionsisat
analltimelowandamajorityofAmericansbelievethecountryisheadedin
thewrongdirection..Theangryandvolatilepublicmoodmade2016theultimate
changeelection.
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Amidsuchapotentantiestablishmentspirit,Trumpsvulgar,intemperateand
unorthodoxstylestruckvotersasfarmoregenuinethanthehighlycautiousand
controlledHillaryClinton.AsthebrashandunpredictableTrumppositioned
himselfasanagentofchange,Clintonseemedliketheestablishmentscandidate,
animpressionthatprovedfataltohercampaign.Indeed,TrumpusedClintons
deepexperienceintheWhiteHouse,SenateandStateDepartmentagainstherby
citingitasevidencethatsherepresentedthestatusquo.

Ironically,BillClintonwontheWhiteHouse24yearsagousingasimilaranti
establishmentstrategy.Inthe1992election,hesuccessfullydepictedincumbent
PresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushasanoutoftouchelitist.EightyearslaterBushs

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11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

son,GeorgeW.Bush,employedthesametactictodefeatVicePresidentAlGore.
Andin2008BarackObamasuccessfullyranasanoutsideragainstJohnMcCain.

TrumpisthusthefourthconsecutivepresidenttowintheWhiteHousebyrunning
asanoutsidercandidate.Thatisalessonthatfuturepresidentialcandidates
forgetattheirperil.

5. A M E R I C A , T H E D I V I D E D

Aboveall,the2016electionmadeclearthatAmericaisanationdeeplydivided
alongracial,cultural,genderandclasslines.

Undernormalcircumstances,onewouldexpectthenewpresidenttoattemptto
rallythenationbehindamessageofunity.

ButTrumpwillnotbeanormalpresident.HewontheWhiteHousebywaging
oneofthemostdivisiveandpolarizingcampaignsinAmericanpoliticalhistory.It
isentirelypossiblethathemaychoosetogovernusingthesamestrategyofdivide
andconquer.

Inanycase,Trumpwillsoonbethemostpowerfulpersonintheworld.Hewill
enterofficeonJan.20withRepublicanmajoritiesintheHouseandSenate,which
meansRepublicanswilldictatethenationspolicyagendaandcontrolSupreme
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Courtappointmentsforthenextfouryears.Itseemshighlylikelythereforethat
Nov.8,2016willgodowninthehistorybooksasamajorturningpointin
Americanhistory.

The2016electiondefiedtheconventionalwisdomfromstarttofinish.Itis
probablyasafebetthattheTrumppresidencywillbejustasunpredictable.

ThisarticlewasoriginallypublishedonTheConversation.Readtheoriginal
article.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/explainingdonaldtrumpsshockelectionwin/ 6/11
11/22/2016 ExplainingDonaldTrump'sShockElectionWinScientificAmerican

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Anthony J. Gaughan
Anthony J. Gaughan is a professor of law at Drake University.

The Conversation

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