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ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO.

11
ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

The European Social Model:


Lessons for Developing
Countries

Assar Lindbeck

May 2002

Asian Development Bank


ERD Working Paper No. 11

THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL:


LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Assar Lindbeck

May 2002

Assar Lindbeck is a Professor of International Economics at the Institute for International Economic Studies,
Stockholm University. The author acknowledges Jakob Svensson and Peter Svedberg for useful comments
on a draft of the paper, and Christina Lönnblad for improving the language. This paper was delivered as
a keynote speech at the Conference on Poverty, Growth, and the Role of Institutions, 10-12 October 2001,
Asian Development Bank.

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ERD Working Paper No. 11
THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL: LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Asian Development Bank


P.O. Box 789
0980 Manila
Philippines

2002 by Asian Development Bank


May 2002
ISSN 1655-5252

The views expressed in this paper


are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the Asian Development Bank.

14
Foreword

The ERD Working Paper Series is a forum for ongoing and recently
completed research and policy studies undertaken in the Asian Development Bank
or on its behalf. The Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication meant
to stimulate discussion and elicit feedback. Papers published under this Series
could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals
or chapters in books.

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THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL: LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Contents

Abstract vii

I. General Lessons 1

II. Childhood 4

III. Income and Job Security during Working Age 5

IV. Sick-pay Insurance and Health Care 7

V. Pensions and Old Age Care 9

VI. Conclusion 11

References 12

16
Abstract

Developing countries, in particular the least developed ones, probably


have more to learn from social policies in Europe during the early 20th century
than from the elaborate welfare-state arrangements after World War II. In
addition to macroeconomic growth and stability, the main ambitions must be
to fight human deprivation, including illiteracy, malnutrition, and poor access
to water and sanitation; in some cases, also weak, incompetent, and/or corrupt
governments. It is also important that informal systems in the fields of transfers
and social services are not destroyed when developing countries embark on more
formal systems in these fields in the future. The European experience also warns
against the creation of social systems that are so generous that disincentives,
moral hazard, and receding social norms seriously distort the national economy,
including the labor market

17
I. GENERAL LESSONS

I
n the early 20th century, many European countries still relied heavily on the family both for
income protection and personal (“human”) services, such as child care and care for the elderly,
and, to some extent, also for health care. Civil society, including so-called “friendly societies”,
also contributed to income insurance, for instance in connection with sickness, old age, and
unemployment (the latter often with the help of union-run insurance systems). Occupational
pensions also played an important part for government employees. Besides this, government-created
social arrangements consisted mainly of selective poverty relief (social assistance) and basic services
in the fields of elementary education and health. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries,
legislation was, however, also introduced for work injury compensation and basic, though quite
modest (lump-sum or means-tested) pensions. In some countries, mainly on the European continent,
the government was also involved in the organization of occupational pensions in the private
sector, primarily in the case of large industrial firms.
Comprehensive systems for income maintenance—in the case of childbirth, single
motherhood, unemployment, sickness, old age, etc.—were not introduced in Western Europe
(henceforth “Europe”) until the first decades after World War II, however. Secondary and tertiary
mass education and comprehensive health care for the entire population were built up at about
the same time. It is thus only from the 1960s and 1970s that it makes sense to talk about a “welfare
state” in Europe. In other words, Europe was already quite rich, as compared to most contemporary
developing countries, when elaborate welfare-state arrangements were created.
Since welfare-state arrangements differ among European countries, talking about a common
“European social model” is somewhat misleading. Naturally, this observation constitutes the
background to the habit among scholars to classify European countries in terms of different “welfare
regimes.” The most important difference among countries probably concerns the relative role of the
state, the family, and the market for the provision of income protection and social services. Countries
also differ in terms of the relative roles of “universal” benefits tied to citizenship, occupational
benefits tied to work, and selective means-tested income support. There is also a considerable
difference in the generosity of benefits and welfare services.
As a result of the far-reaching social reforms after World War II, the social arrangements
in Europe are today clearly more comprehensive than in other parts of the world. The achievements
of these arrangements are well known: high-income security for the individual over the life cycle,

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considerably mitigated poverty, and ample provision of various types of social services. The
weaknesses of these social arrangements are also well known today. It turned out that some of
these arrangements were not very financially robust to various types of shocks, for instance, in
terms of demography, productivity growth, and macroeconomic disturbances. The architects of the
welfare state also neglected, or at least underestimated, undesirable behavior adjustments in
response to changes in economic incentives, as a result of explicit and implicit marginal tax wedges
and “moral hazard” in connection with various benefit systems.
What, then, are the general lessons for developing countries of social policies in Europe?
These countries, in particular the least developed ones, probably have more to learn from social
policies in Europe during the early 20th century than from the elaborate welfare-state arrangements
after World War II. The reason is, of course, that economic resources, socioeconomic structures,
and informal welfare arrangements in the earlier period were more similar to the situation in
today’s developing countries than contemporary conditions. In most developing countries, trying
to imitate contemporary welfare-state arrangements in Europe would be a serious mistake. In
particular, this would be the case for transfer payments designed to provide protection against
income losses for the population as a whole, since such protection is very expensive and also requires
a highly developed administration. Instead, it is reasonable to give priority to the creation of an
environment conducive to entrepreneurship, long-term economic growth, basic health and primary
and (at least in some developing countries) secondary education—as was the case in Europe a
century ago. The “fine tuning” of welfare-state arrangements in Europe today are often far from
what is needed in developing countries. We have also learned how important macroeconomic stability
is for social conditions. In addition to macroeconomic growth and stability, the main ambitions
must be to fight human deprivation, including illiteracy, malnutrition, poor access to water and
sanitation, and, in some cases, also weak, incompetent, and/or corrupt governments.
It is also important to look at social policies in a broad context, and then identify the
interaction among different types of economic and social variables. Myrdal (1944, appendix 3)
often emphasized processes of “cumulative causation”, with vicious circles among various poverty-
creating forces: malnutrition damaging health, which in turn results in social exclusion and reduces
the possibilities of acquiring education, which further lowers productivity and political influence,
which goes back to square one by exacerbating malnutrition and social exclusion, etc. Dynamic
processes of this type are well understood today among professional observers of poverty in deve-
loping countries. It is equally important to understand such processes when we try to turn vicious
circles into virtuous ones.
There are, of course, other important similarities among developing countries than their
poverty. Most of these countries are also rural, and they have a young population. It is, however,
also important to emphasize their differences in terms of socioeconomic conditions, administrative
capacities, the role of informal welfare arrangements and economic and social policies. Presumably,
the most important difference is the level of development and the degree of “modernization” which,
to a considerable extent, is a result of the governments’ past emphasis on, or neglect of, long-term

2
Section I
General Lessons

economic growth. For instance, governments and ethnic and social groups in some developing
countries, not least in Africa, have clearly been more engaged in power struggles and rent seeking
than in growth enhancing policies. In several South East Asian countries, by contrast, it is fair to
say that concern for economic growth has indeed dominated, also over issues of income security. As
we know, this has been reflected in a heavy emphasis on capital formation. Some of these countries
have, however, also succeeded in combining fast economic growth with a fairly even distribution of
income and wealth, thanks to early land reform and widespread elementary education. The emphasis
on economic growth also shows up in the composition of infrastructure investment, which has been
heavily concentrated on production-oriented structures such as harbors and roads and railways,
rather than facilities directly servicing households, such as housing, sanitation and the environment
in cities and the countryside. This emphasis on growth, of course, reflects an understanding among
policymakers that mass poverty can never be replaced by mass affluence without sustained economic
growth during many decades.
This said, we should not forget that some social arrangements, not just spending on primary
education, might be conducive to long-term economic growth, the most important examples perhaps
being policies improving the nutrition status and the general health conditions of the poor, in
particular children. Safety nets and systems for income protection may also, up to a point, be
conducive to economic efficiency, since they may enhance political and social stability (Alesina and
Rodrik 1994). But, in particular, we have learned over the years that highly selective social policies
can make a big difference in the living conditions among the poorest sections of a society, also at a
given level of per capita GDP (Sen 1983).
I argued above that it is mainly the European experience of social policies before World
War II, and even before World War I, that should be of interest for social policies in today’s developing
countries. For the more affluent ones, however, there are also lessons to be learned from the
contemporary experience of social policies in developed countries. For other developing countries,
the European experience after World War II is probably of interest mainly for contemporary
discussions of social policies far ahead in the future. The latter observation is of some importance
since it often takes a long time before social policy arrangements are in place and functioning
properly. An extreme example is funded social insurance systems, including so-called provident
funds à la Malaysia and Singapore, since such systems mature very slowly. However, the most
important message of the paper for developing countries is probably to avoid destroying existing
informal systems. Empirical research suggests that these risks are real (Townsend 1994, Udry
1994).
I will organize my discussion as a “sightseeing tour” in the welfare landscape, following the
individual from the womb (and hence not just from the cradle) to the tomb.1

1 For a more detailed account of the role of welfare state arrangements over the individual’s life cycle, though
without discussion of the lessons for developing countries, see Lindbeck (2002).

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II. CHILDHOOD

Before World War II, the family and other relatives were in charge of most child care in
Europe, though high- and middle-class families also hired helpers (usually girls) in the market.
The main example of government intervention was mandatory and subsidized primary education.
After World War II, three additional government interventions were launched, or greatly expanded:
prenatal care, income transfers (or tax deductions) to families with children and, in some countries,
also subsidized child care outside the family either in institutions (kindergarten) or in the homes of
others (family daycare).
It is generally agreed that the sharp drop in birth rates during the last two decades threatens
the financial viability of various welfare-state arrangements in the long run. An obvious policy
response would be to stimulate child bearing by redistributing income to families with children, in
particular those with many children. Somewhat surprisingly, this has, so far, not occurred to any
large extent, perhaps because families with children are today a highly heterogeneous minority
among voters.
There are, however, at least two arguments for more interventionist policy measures in the
case of families with children. First, there is a second-best argument to subsidize child care outside
the family, because of the existence of distortionary taxes favoring tax-free household work at the
expense of taxed work in the labor market. Indeed, government policies in the Nordic countries
have recently followed this second-best route through strong subsidies of child care outside the
family, which is one important explanation for the high labor force participation of women in these
countries.
The other argument for government intervention in the lives of families with small children
is, of course, that schooling has important implications for economic efficiency and the future
distribution of factor income. It is controversial whether the same argument is relevant for child
care of preschool children. In the case of poor families with little education, in particular families
with severe social problems, it is, however, widely believed that child care outside the family enhances
human capital formation and hence the future factor income of such children. This, of course, is
the traditional “head-start” argument.
Is any of this relevant for developing countries? The fertility problem is, of course, usually
the reverse of the European one; about 40 per cent of the population in many developing countries
are children. It is, however, hazardous (to say the least) to use this observation as an argument for
turning the policy recommendation for Europe upside down for developing countries, hence
recommending redistributions of income to the disadvantage of families with (many) children! We
probably have to rely on traditional birth control policies and compulsory education to convince
families in developing countries to restrict their number of children.
As in Europe before World War II, it is natural to expect that child care in developing
countries, for a long time to come, will be pursued by the family and other relatives—combined
with privately hired helpers in the case of high- and middle-class families. The most urgent policy

4
Section III
Income and Job Security during Working Age

interventions in child raising in developing countries must be improved nutrition, fights against
infective diseases for pregnant woman and small children, and primary education. The relevant
methods are commonplace: information about high-nutrition food intake, subsidies of such food for
the poorest section of the population, obstetric care, clean water, sanitation, immunization, and
subsidized compulsory primary education. Indeed, studies in medicine and bio-demography have
shown the importance of these factors for the physical and intellectual development of children
(Behrman 1993, Scrimshaw 1996, United Nations 1997). In particular, the interaction between
infectious diseases and malnutrition for children has turned out to be highly damaging; deficiencies
in these respects are even transmitted to grandchildren. Usually, such policies are not very expensive
as compared to many other types of government spending, for example infrastructure investment
and military spending. It is also an area where technical and economic assistance from the outside
world may be particularly useful. The head-start argument for child care outside the biological
family is probably relevant mainly for orphans and street children in developing countries.
What about education? In the poorest developing countries, there are both efficiency and
distributional reasons to concentrate educational resources on primary schooling, as was the case
in Europe during the first decades of the 20th century. There is, however, also an emerging
consensus that a number of developing countries, for instance in Southeast Asia and Latin America,
have reached a level of development where it is appropriate to allocate more resources to secondary
and tertiary education. European experiences during the 20th century suggest that it then makes
sense to put a strong emphasis on a combination of theoretical and vocational training—along the
lines of the apprenticeship systems in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. These countries have
been successful both in creating a skillful labor force, at least in manufacturing, and in keeping
down the level of youth unemployment.

III. INCOME AND JOB SECURITY DURING WORKING AGE

Only very few policy interventions directly designed to enhance income security and job
security existed in Europe before the 1930s; modest unemployment benefits and limited public
works programs during depressions being the main exceptions. Two reasonable explanations are
perhaps that the main beneficiaries of such policies had little political power and that macroeconomic
theories for rationalizing such policies did not exist before the “Keynesian revolution.”
By contrast, macroeconomic policies have dominated the political agenda in Europe after
World War II. Such policies were also quite successful for a while in the sense that the macroeconomic
performance in Europe was excellent from the economic recovery during the early 1950s to the
mid-1970s. The subsequent situation may be characterized as a continuation of good income security
combined with dismal employment performance and hence, deteriorating job security for part of
the labor force. An appropriate policy package to improve employment performance would have to
include not only measures strengthening the attractiveness of outsiders in the labor market and

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activating their job search, but also measures reducing the market powers of insiders (Lindbeck
1996).
What are the lessons, if any, for developing countries from the experience of employment
policies and income protection in Europe? In most developing countries, unemployment benefits
hardly exist, simply because some 60-80 percent of the population are in informal sectors (largely
agriculture). In some of the more affluent developing countries, certain unemployment benefits do
exist, but these are usually neither comprehensive nor generous. In some of the most advanced
developing countries, including some countries in East Asia, there is, however, a quite detailed
labor market legislation, including both minimum wages and job security legislation. But the
implementation of the laws is usually weak or even nonexistent, which is, of course, a disadvantage
for employees who would keep their jobs also with stricter implementation. However, poor imple-
mentation is an advantage for workers who would not have been hired if minimum wages and job
security legislation had been strictly enforced.
As a result of all this, European-type insider-outsider division has largely been avoided in
developing countries, and highly persistent unemployment after negative macroeconomic shocks
do not seem to be prevalent. There is, instead, often considerable segmentation between privileged
employees in the public sector, and in some cases also in large firms, on the one hand, and less
privileged employees in smaller firms, on the other hand.
Moreover, some of the more affluent developing countries seem to be strongly exposed to
negative macroeconomic shocks. This problem can probably be mitigated to some extent by floating
exchange rates or, in some case, by membership in a large monetary union where the country’s
trade is concentrated. Another macroeconomic problem is that both financial institutions and
production firms have often neglected their balance sheets, which appears in low equity capital
and much short-term borrowing (often also in the form of uncovered loans in foreign currencies).
I understand this to have been an important factor behind the financial crisis in East Asia in the
late 1990s. Tougher authorities in the field of financial inspection are thus called for. In view of
the severe social problems in connection with recurring macroeconomic crises in developing countries,
the first, and perhaps most important, line of defense for job and income security must be good
macroeconomic institutions, well-consolidated firms, and a reasonably good macroeconomic policy,
including an appropriate exchange rate system.
Sooner or later, the population in developing countries will certainly demand a second line
of defense, in the form of income protection. It is well known that systems of unemployment insurance
do not easily spontaneously emerge via voluntary market transactions due to problems of adverse
selection. Either the state or unions must intervene to create comprehensive unemployment benefit
systems. It is then, of course, important to realize that the generosity and the duration for the
benefits must be kept within certain bounds to mitigate moral hazard problems.
In countries with a particularly low per capita income and quite a small formal production
sector, ethical considerations probably point to a safety net solution, rather than comprehensive
unemployment insurance, designed to provide income protection in proportion to previous income.

6
Section IV
Sick-pay Insurance and Health Care

The purpose would be to secure elementary entitlements such as food, shelter, clothing, and basic
health. Such safety nets could, of course, operate by quite different methods: public work programs;
subsidized work in the private sector for unemployed workers; needs-based cash transfers (“social
assistance” or “welfare”) to poor people in general; selective transfers in kind (food programs such
as food stamps); or subsidies to basic consumption. Administrative feasibility, including the precision
of targeting, is presumably a crucial aspect in the choice of method.
The administrative difficulties in running such programs in developing countries are
accentuated by the problem of knowing when the family is able and willing to provide income
security to its members and when this is not the case. There may be some experiences from Southern
Europe, for example Italy, on how to handle, or not handle, safety nets in societies with weak
government administration and frequent cohabitation of parents and adult children.
Moreover, considering the dominating role of agriculture in most developing countries,
crop insurance programs are often more important than unemployment insurance. Local, so-called
“micro- and area-based”, protection for small farmers is another example of income protection
programs that should perhaps be relied on to a larger extent today and in the near future.

IV. SICK-PAY INSURANCE AND HEALTH CARE

In Europe before World War II, personal savings, support from relatives and friends, and
individual insurance schemes dominated as methods for mitigating economic setbacks in connection
with health problems. Mandatory sick-pay insurance, usually administrated by government
agencies, is basically a post World War II phenomenon. Since these systems are quite generous
today, with replacement rates often in the interval of 70-100 percent, governments in Europe
have no doubt succeeded in reallocating income to periods when the individual is temporarily sick,
and hence to protect consumption during such periods. In a considerable part of Europe, sick-pay
benefits, like unemployment benefits, are, however, tied to previous earnings, which favors
individuals with stable employment. This means that the insider-outsider division of the labor
market is transmitted to periods of bad health.
In several European countries, the sick-pay insurance systems have recently run into serious
financial difficulties. One reason is moral hazard, for instance, when an individual calls sick when
feeling tired on a Monday morning. The consequences of moral hazard may be accentuated by
receding social norms against exploiting the systems, when individuals observe that others do this.
To the extent that these factors explain the rising costs of sick-pay insurance, more waiting days,
coinsurance, and stricter administration of the benefit system would be rational policy responses.
In some countries, including Sweden, higher costs for sick-pay insurance are, however,
more related to long-term than to short-term sick leave. “Double work” by women is probably a
reason, since they still do the bulk of household work, including child care in the home,
simultaneously with work in the labor market. In this sense, women have paid a high psychological

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price for their increased labor market participation. There is also some speculation in the general
discussion to the effect that reorganization of work, with increased requirements of efficiency and
individual responsibility, has contributed to the stress at work.
If these are important explanations, the problems might be mitigated both by improvements
in the work environment and by a greater responsibility for household work, including child care,
among men. The first may be achieved by experience-rated insurance fees for firms (higher fees
for firms with many sick days). It is more difficult to design policies that shift household work from
women to men, since this would require that the government intervene in the lives of families.
Such policies, however, already exist to some extent in Denmark and Sweden, since men are
offered nontransferable rights to stay at home to take care of small children, without much loss of
income.
What about developing countries? In most of these, sick leave is basically financed as in
Europe during the first decades of the 20th century, i.e., via relatives and civil society. In countries
with more formal systems of health insurance, i.e., mainly the most affluent among developing
countries, these systems are usually highly fragmented, with separate arrangements for different
industries, professions and firms. If more elaborate sick-pay insurances are created in developing
countries in the future, the European experience illustrates the importance of watching out for
moral hazard and changes in social norms. For that reason, it is important to keep the generosity
of the system within bounds, and make the administrative controls tight, not least to prevent
physicians from being overly generous in certifying the needs for sick leave.
What, then, is the experience of health care services in Europe? In general terms, the basic
problem is how to combine insurance, incentives, and freedom of choice. All health care systems
are today exposed to serious cost problems, since the “third party pays.” Insurance schemes, in
particular when based on cost-plus financing, tend to generate particularly rapid increases in
costs, which is strikingly illustrated by the experience in Germany and the United States. Canada
has succeeded better in containing costs in its health care insurance systems by relying on fixed
budgets for health providers and price control of services. Tax-financed health services of the UK
National Health Service (NHS) type have typically been better at containing health care costs.
But this has been achieved by strict rationing, i.e., queues and waiting lists (which also is a problem
in Canada), and high stress levels at work for the personnel.
Are there any lessons for developing countries from health care in developed countries?
Most well informed observers probably agree that it makes sense for developing countries to
emphasize fights against infectious diseases and malnutrition, not least for pregnant women and
small children. This may mean that comprehensive treatments of heart disease, cancer, and other
ailments characteristic of a rich and aging population, would have to be postponed. Concretely,
this means information and subsidies in the field of sanitation and primary health care and probably
also information about the importance of a healthy life style, including less smoking. The
surveillance of public and private health care units, with very uneven qualities, is also of potential
importance. In a somewhat longer perspective, there are also strong cases for mandatory health

8
Section V
Pensions and Old-age Care

insurance for “catastrophic health care”, co-payments, and the mobilization of more resources for
health care in the private sector. In many countries, it is also important to increase the salaries of
doctors and nurses.
Apart from this, it is important to allow and stimulate experimentation, which requires
considerable freedom of entry of nongovernment health providers—for nonprofit as well as profit
organizations. I then assume that it is better to allow decentralized experimentation, rather than
keep existing systems intact or, as often occurs, have the government conduct full scale experiments
for a whole country. It is also important to avoid destroying whatever nongovernment networks
exist via families and civil society.2

V. PENSIONS AND OLD-AGE CARE

While mandatory pension systems in Europe have been instrumental for providing income
security for the elderly, governments have played a much more modest role in the field of care for
the elderly. As we know, both fields encounter serious problems today. To the extent that
contemporary, and projected future, financial problems of the pension systems are caused by low
birth rates in the past, conceivable remedies would be to boost nativity (with considerable time lag
before the size of the labor force is influenced) and encourage the immigration of young individuals
of working age. Unfortunately, it is not obvious that governments can do much about birth rates
(except perhaps provide good child care outside the family), and there may be “social limits” to
immigration because of the risks of ethnical tensions in the countries of immigration. To the extent
that financial problems for pension systems are related to a higher longevity of individuals after
retirement, raising the statutory pension age and removing subsidies to early retirement are instead
natural remedies. But to avoid heavy unemployment among the elderly in connection with later
retirement, it is also important to allow greater flexibility in relative wages (for workers of different
ages) and increase the possibilities for retirees to individually choose the length of their work week.
It is today also increasingly understood in Europe that the “pay-as-you-go” (PAYGO) pension
systems create disincentive problems for work via implicit tax wedges. The reason is, of course, that
the link between the contributions and the subsequent pension benefits for the individual is usually
quite weak. An obvious way of mitigating this incentive problem is to tighten the link, hence
making the pension systems more actuarial, or “quasi-actuarial” (since the return on mandatory
pension saving would be lower than the return in financial markets). There is also a case for a
partial shift to a funded pension system. The individual then would be able to enjoy a more diversified
portfolio of pension claims than in either a pure PAYGO system, where the (risky) return depends
on the growth rate of the tax base, or a pure funded system where the (risky) return depends on

2 The role of such networks in developing countries is still an “under-researched” field.

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developments in financial markets. The reason is, of course, that these two types of returns are not
fully correlated, in particular if the pension funds invest in international capital markets.
What is the relevance of all this for the financing of retirement in developing countries? In
most such countries, informal systems, in particular via relatives, are likely to dominate for a long
time to come. Sooner or later, there will, however, be a strong ethical case for government intervention
to mitigate poverty among the elderly—an application of the safety net idea to the retirement
period. A basic pension in the form of a lump sum payment, equal for all elderly, or means-tested
pension benefits, are then obvious alternatives. This corresponds to the World Bank’s (1993)
recommendation for a “universal first-tier pension.” An additional advantage of such a system, in
principle, is that it is rather equitable if financed by tax payments that increase with income. But
in many developing countries, only a few percent of the population pay income taxes, or can be
exposed to payroll taxes, which, of course, means that the financing would be a serious administrative
obstacle.
In the long run, the expanding middle class will, however, hardly be satisfied with either a
basic pension or means-tested pension benefits. This group is likely to ask for income protection in
some proportion to previous income, as in today’s developed countries, partly in response to a
gradually reduced importance of transfers within families. As we know, some developing countries
have already started to build up mandatory pension systems of this type: funded systems in Chile
and Malaysia and some other countries in Latin American; while Korea, Philippines, and Thailand
have chosen social security systems. Advocates of mandatory, funded pension systems in deve-
loped countries have often referred to the importance of boosting aggregate national saving, which
is easiest if a funded system is created “from scratch.” While the argument for such a boost may be
important for some developing countries, it hardly has much strength in developing countries with
high national saving rates, such as some countries in East Asia.
In the future, when comprehensive pension systems probably will exist in today’s developing
countries, the same financial problems as in today’s developed countries are likely to occur. Falling
fertility and increased longevity seem to be inevitable developments in the modern world, and
even the fastest growing countries will sooner or later experience slower productivity growth. In
the few developing countries where formal pension systems already exist, the pension age is usually
quite low (relative to life expectancy). Thus, there is great room for defending, or improving, the
financial position of these systems by raising the retirement age, for instance, from 55 to 67 or
even 70. Some developing countries may also find it easier than many countries in Europe to
accommodate the elderly in the labor market, since they have had arrangements for work for the
elderly for a long time, and since relative wages are often more flexible than in Europe. It remains
to be seen whether these conditions will prevail.
Contemporary financial and organizational problems in the field of old-age care in developed
countries are related to the demographic factors of the same type as those that have created problems
for the pension system. The organizational difficulties are instead rather similar to the problems of
health care: it is difficult to combine solidarity-oriented financing with production efficiency and

10
Section VI
Conclusion

freedom of choice. Old-age care is also hurt by Baumol’s Law (Baumol 1967), which explains why
costs and prices tend to increase particularly fast in the case of labor intensive services like human
care. Another issue concerns the freedom of choice of services for the elderly. Such freedom is, in
principle, easy to bring about in the case of service in the elderly’s homes—shopping, cooking,
cleaning etc.—like in child care and care for the elderly. Service checks (vouchers) are an obvious
tool. Vouchers are less useful in the case of institutionalized old-age care, since the needs for
medical care vary enormously among patients. Still it would certainly be possible to offer considerable
freedom of choice of service institution for the elderly.
It will take some time before most developing countries encounter similar problems, not
only because the population is still young, but also because the family is likely to supply care
services to the elderly for a long time to come. But it may be a good idea at least to start thinking,
and perhaps also experimenting, with alternative systems of care for the elderly before there is an
acute need to expand formal systems in this field. In the long run, it is not likely that family
members and other relatives can be relied on to service the elderly any more in today’s developing
countries than in Europe.

VI. CONCLUSION

The experiences of social policies during the first decades of the 20th century in Europe
underline the important role of informal systems for income security and personal services at low
levels of economic development. It is crucial, however, that informal systems are not destroyed
when developing countries embark on more formal systems in these fields in the future. I have
also emphasized that the European experience warns against the creation of social systems that
are so generous that disincentives, moral hazard, and receding social norms seriously distort the
national economy, including the labor market. These risks seem to be particularly important in the
case of unemployment benefits, support to single mothers, sick leave, disability pensions and early
retirement. If disincentives and moral hazard undermine the financial viability of government-
operated systems, and these would therefore have to be cut back, many individuals may suddenly
find themselves without both types of social systems.

11
ERD Working Paper No. 11
THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL: LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

REFERENCES

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of Economics May:465-90.
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American Economic Review 57:415-26.
Behrman, J. R., 1993. “The Economic Rationale for Investing in Nutrition in Developing Countries.”
World Development 21:1749-71.
Lindbeck, A., 1996. “The West European Employment Problems.” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv
December:3-31.
———, 2002. “Improving the Performance of the European Social Model.” Paper presented at a
Conference at the IESE Business School, Barcelona, 27 November 2001.
Myrdal, G., 1944. An American Dilemma. Carnegie Foundation, New York.
Scrimshaw, N. S., 1996. “Nutrition and Health from Womb to Tomb.” Nutrition Today 31:55-67.
Sen, A., 1983. “Development: Which Way Now?” The Economic Journal December:745-62.
Townsend, R. M., 1994. “Risk and Insurance in Village India.” Econometrica 62(39):539-91.
Udry, C., 1994. “Risk and Insurance in Rural Credit Markets: An Empirical Investigation in Northern
Nigeria.” Review of Economic Studies 61:495-526.
United Nations, 1997. Subcommittee on Nutrition. Geneva.
World Bank, 1993. Averting the Old Age Crisis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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the World Economy —John Malcolm Dowling, Jr., November 1984
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No. 13 Credit Rationing, Rural Savings, and Financial Advantage
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15
on Developing Countries of Asia —Hiroshi Kakazu, June 1990
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No. 35 Agricultural Price Policy in Nepal Policies
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—Brien K. Parkinson, January 1993 No. 7 Sustainable Development Environment
No. 3 Rural Institutional Finance in Bangladesh and Poverty Nexus
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—A.H.M.N. Chowdhury and Marcelia C. Garcia, No. 8 Intermediate Services and Economic
November 1993 Development: The Malaysian Example
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16
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No. 1 Estimates of the Total External Debt of —Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1987
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—I.P. David, September 1984 —Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1988
No. 2 Multivariate Statistical and Graphical No. 11 Changing Pattern of Financial Flows to Asian
Classification Techniques Applied and Pacific Developing Countries
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—I.P. David and D.S. Maligalig, March 1985 No. 12 The State of Agricultural Statistics in
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—I.P. David, December 1985 No. 15 A Survey of the External Debt Situation
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Developing Countries s: 1989-1992
—I.P. David and Jungsoo Lee, March 1986 —Min Tang, June 1991
No. 7 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the No. 16 Recent Trends and Prospects of External Debt
South Pacific Developing Member Countries. Situation and Financial Flows to Asian
Part I: Existing National Accounts and Pacific Developing Countries
of SPDMCs–Analysis of Methodology —Min Tang and Aludia Pardo, June 1992
and Application of SNA Concepts No. 17 Purchasing Power Parity in Asian Developing
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986 Countries: A Co-Integration Test
No. 8 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South —Min Tang and Ronald Q. Butiong, April 1994
Pacific Developing Member Countries. No. 18 Capital Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing
Part II: Factors Affecting Intercountry Countries: Recent Trends and Future Prospects
Comparability of Per Capita GNP —Min Tang and James Villafuerte, October 1995
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
No. 9 Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1985

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1. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through September 1988


Financial Development: Overview September 1985 18. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Industries in the
2. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Industrial Development of the Philippines
Financial Development: Bangladesh July 1986 April 1989
3. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through 19. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Financial Development: Sri Lanka April 1987 Industries in Industrial Development: The Experience
4. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through of Selected Asian Countries
Financial Development: India December 1987 January 1990
5. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure 20. National Accounts of Vanuatu, 1983-1987
in Selected Countries: Overview January 1988 January 1990
6. Study of Selected Industries: A Brief Report 21. National Accounts of Western Samoa, 1984-1986
April 1988 February 1990
7. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure 22. Human Resource Policy and Economic
in Selected Countries: Bangladesh June 1988 Development: Selected Country Studies
8. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure July 1990
in Selected Countries: India June 1988 23. Export Finance: Some Asian Examples
9. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure September 1990
in Selected Countries: Indonesia June 1988 24. National Accounts of the Cook Islands, 1982-1986
10. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure September 1990
in Selected Countries: Nepal June 1988 25. Framework for the Economic and Financial Appraisal
11. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure of Urban Development Sector Projects January 1994
in Selected Countries: Pakistan June 1988 26. Framework and Criteria for the Appraisal
12. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure and Socioeconomic Justification of Education Projects
in Selected Countries: Philippines June 1988 January 1994
13. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure 27. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects
in Selected Countries: Thailand June 1988 February 1997
14. Towards Regional Cooperation in South Asia: 28. Investing in Asia
ADB/EWC Symposium on Regional Cooperation 1997
in South Asia February 1988 29. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis
15. Evaluating Rice Market Intervention Policies: of Telecommunication Projects
Some Asian Examples April 1988 1998
16. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through 30. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis
Financial Development: Nepal November 1988 of Water Supply Projects
17. Foreign Trade Barriers and Export Growth 1999

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1. Informal Finance: Some Findings from Asia Vol. 3: Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam
Prabhu Ghate et. al., 1992 $50.00 (hardbound)
$15.00 (paperback) 8. Financial Sector Development in Asia
2. Mongolia: A Centrally Planned Economy Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995
in Transition $50.00 (hardbound)
Asian Development Bank, 1992 9. Financial Sector Development in Asia: Country Studies
$15.00 (paperback) Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995
3. Rural Poverty in Asia, Priority Issues and Policy $55.00 (hardbound)
Options 10. Fiscal Management and Economic Reform
Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1994 in the People’s Republic of China
$25.00 (paperback) Christine P.W. Wong, Christopher Heady,
4. Growth Triangles in Asia: A New Approach and Wing T. Woo, 1995
to Regional Economic Cooperation $15.00 (paperback)
Edited by Myo Thant, Min Tang, and Hiroshi Kakazu 11. Current Issues in Economic Development:
1st ed., 1994 $36.00 (hardbound) An Asian Perspective
Revised ed., 1998 $55.00 (hardbound) Edited by M.G. Quibria and J. Malcolm Dowling, 1996
5. Urban Poverty in Asia: A Survey of Critical Issues $50.00 (hardbound)
Edited by Ernesto Pernia, 1994 12. The Bangladesh Economy in Transition
$18.00 (paperback) Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1997
6. Critical Issues in Asian Development: $20.00 (hardbound)
Theories, Experiences, and Policies 13. The Global Trading System and Developing Asia
Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1995 Edited by Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria,
$15.00 (paperback) and Narhari Rao, 1997
$36.00 (hardbound) $55.00 (hardbound)
7. From Centrally Planned to Market Economies: 14. Rising to the Challenge in Asia: A Study of Financial
The Asian Approach Markets
Edited by Pradumna B. Rana and Naved Hamid, 1995 Asian Development Bank, 1999
Vol. 1: Overview Vol. 1 $20.00 (paperback)
$36.00 (hardbound) Vol. 2 $15.00 (paperback)
Vol. 2: People’s Republic of China and Mongolia Vol. 3 $25.00 (paperback)
$50.00 (hardbound) Vols. 4-12 $20.00 (paperback)

SERIALS
(Co-published with Oxford University Press; Available commercially through Oxford University Press
Offices, Associated Companies, and Agents)
1. Asian Development Outlook (ADO; annual)
$36.00 (paperback)

2. Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries (KI; annual)


$35.00 (paperback)

JOURNAL
(Published in-house; Available commercially through ADB Office of External Relations)
1. Asian Development Review (ADR; semiannual)
$5.00 per issue; $8.00 per year (2 issues)

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