IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

1. American Middle east challenges; All sides ack progress towards eliminating Iran
cap to achieve a nuc breakout, which would enable it to begin wpns production
within a yr.
2. Backgr of the deal; Brief conversation b/w President Obama and the Sultan
Qaboos bin Said Al Said of Oman where the later convinced the former that a
deal can be reached on the nuc crises if the Iranian are allowed to keep the
honour.
3. Initiation of Iranian talks despite stiff US internal dispute had three reasons:
a. Preventing an Iranian breakout though a worthy goal, is not what pol and
pundits would nec regard as an outright victory. On the contrary Iran probably
already possesses a know how to build a bomb. It is far from easy to
negotiate the circumstances by which a cty in Irans posn cannot, as opposed
to will not, produce a bomb.
b. Second reason is that sanctions regimes have attracted almost a cult fol
defined by a tendency to exaggerate their success and potential. Many
academic studies have shown that the success rate of sanctions is ltd.
c. Third reason for the impasse in US middle east policy stems from the
complexity of the regions inc sectarian politics.
4. Prior to the deal, Iran ws branded as an Axis of evil by the US President and
most notably Israel.
5. Indeed when USA wanted to station msls in eastern Europe states apparently
against Russia, it was justifies as def against Iranian Nuc threat.
6. Historic deal was signed in Vienna on July 14, 2015 when P5+1 reached an
agreement with Iran capping its nuc progm in return for Irans access to billions of
dollars of its frozen assets.
7. Negotiations were spread over a pd of 20 months.
8. Under the deal Iran must dismantle its nuc progm to secure relief from sanctions
that have nearly crippled its eco. Dismantling encompasses:-
a. Centrifuges will keep running though in lesser qty uranium can still be
enriched, though at lower level.
b. In a compromise, Iran agreed to continuation of UN arms embargo on the cty
upto five yrs and ballistic msl restrictions upto eight yrs.
c. In return Iran would have access to upto $100 billions in assets that have
been frozen overseas.
d. Iran can also sell oil, bringing down crude oil prizes.
9. Effs of deal within USA; A contentious fight with President Obama with a
republican led congress and more rocky relations with Israel whose ldrs opposed
the agreement.
10. Nuc agreement reduces the possibility of more US mil actions in the middle east.
11. Israel PM Netanyahu called the deal as a stunning historic mistake and warned
that his cty would not be bound by it.
12. KSA sp the deal but emphasized the imp of a strict inspections regime and the
ability to re-impose sanctions if req.
13. Obama took office in 2009.
14. Obama challenged the critics against deal that there were only two alternatives
aval; either it is resolved diplomatically or through force.
15. Under the agreement, Iran gets intl recognition for its enrichment of Uranium for
civ purposes.
16. Tech parameters of the deal are:-
a. Iran will no longer keep 20% uranium in a form that can be dev for a bomb.
b. Present 5% Uranium will also sharply reduce.
c. Nuc facilities will be kept under an extensive and tightly defined sys of
inspectors (excl mil sites).
17. Adv to Pak due to the deal are:-
a. End of sanctions against Iran would enable the Iran-Pak pipline proj to go
ahead, which would benefit Pak greatly.
b. Creating enabling envmt (security) for const of western alignment of CPEC .
c. A possible war b/w US and Iran would have been catastrophe and could have
drawn Pak into the conflict against its wishes.
d. Create condns for expansion of trade, commerce, and cultural interaction. Isb
will have to adopt a bal policy in middle east and will have to maint a high pri
relation with KSA.
e. According to foreign policy, Pak needs to add as much as electricity in next 10
yrs as it has produced in last 60 yrs. Iran has offered 3000 MW of elec to Pak
in addn to 1100 MW that was already signed by the previous Govt.
18. Under the nuc deal, Iran has agreed for all intents and purposes to forgo for the
next next 10 to 15 yrs any advancement work that might be interpreted as
pursuing a nuc wpns, will be achieved through tight intrusive UN inspections and
surv regime under IAEA.
19. Nuc bearings on Iran:-
a. Lenghten the time for breakout for Iran to make an atomic bomb to one yr.
b. Iran stockpile of low enriched Uranium will be reduced by 98 % for 15 yrs,
probably by transferring it to Russia.
c. Its Centrifuges will keep spinning though enriching Uranium upto max 5060
from previously 19000.
d. Its stockpile of present cap of making ten bomb will reduce by 98% (i.e 300
kgs, ref:Wikipedia).
20. US President had said that he would veto any rejection by US congress that has
to review the accord within 60 days, though Congress can veto the President as
well by 2/3 majority but it appears that his opponents might not get this much sp.
21. UK foreign Secy, Mr Philip Hammod.
22. Adv to Iran due to the deal:
a. Iran eco potential will open up all sorts of opportunities not only for Iran but
also for the region and beyond.
b. Iran will get access to its frozen funds of $100 Billions.
 c. There will be potential for investment in varied projs in Iranwith its people free
at last from perpetual sense of siege since the revolution in 1979.
d. Iran will take its place in community of nations and might even play a
constructive role in a region torn apart for all sorts of reasons.
23. Israel with its Arab neighbours, except for Shiite dominated Syria, Israel happily
coexist. Egypt, Jordan, KSA and the Gulf Sheikhdoms have no problems with
Israel and Israel has none with them.
24. The mortal enemies to Israel are Shiite Iran and Alawite Syria (the only Sunni
entity hostile to Israel is Hamas).
25. Libya was the last frontier that the west and conservative Islam were able to
jointly destroy.
26. Our Arab friends are not getting it. Threatening them is not Bashar ul Asad, it is
not Hezbullah. It is not even Iran. What threatens them is the rise of Islamic state.
27. Iran problems with the IAEA and the world powers began in 2002, when it was
discovered that Iran is secretly enriching Uranium at a plant in Natanz and has
estb a hy water reactor at Aarak.
28. Once Iran failed to respond to suspend its enrichment progm because of six
major world power demand, UNSC imposed sanctions and the US and European
tighten the nose by slapping sanctions.
29. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, came to power in 2013.
30. Same yr in 2013, P5+1 lifted few sanctions on Iran in response to Iran agreeing
to suspend it wpn related activity and enrichment progm.
31. Broad contours are:-
a. Cty agreed to reduce the centrifuges to 6014 from 19000 being done at
Natanz and Fordow.
b. Top ceiling of enrichment not to exceed 3.67%.
c. Irans cap of making a Uranium and plutonium bomb reduced to one yr from
three months.
32. Iran main concern now is acquiring nuc technology and dev a nuc infrastructure
with the cty not nec interested in manufacture of wpns.
33. KSA and Israel are strongly opposed to the deal.
34. A/m ctys fear that once the sanctions are lifted from Iran, its power will inc. Its
eco and geo pol sit will considerably improve, altering the bal of power in the
region.
35. Moreover, the deal will empower moderates reduce the power of the clergy and
inc President Rouhnai auth.
36. As a consequence, relations b.w Iran and USA will improve and they will
cooperate in dealing with Taliban, ISIS and other militant gps.
37. Repercussions for Pak:-
a. Once the attn of anti nuc deal lobbies in the USA and the west is lifted from
Iran, it could turn towards Pak especially in the context of Fissile material cut
off treaty. Even though two cases are diff with Iran being a member of NPT
and India, Pak and Israel are outside NPT.
 b. Certain lobbies in the west have never reconciled to the reality of Pak
becoming a nuc state.
38. If Iran violates any aspect, the sanctions will be re imposed.
39. Minister of Foreign affairs of Iran; Mr Javed Zarif
40. Initial talks (b/w Iran and P5+1) prior to 2 April 2015 are also called as
Lausanne Accord.