Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430

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Waste Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/wasman

Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landll

in Brazil
Gustavo Ferreira Simes a,, Ccero Antnio Antunes Catapreta b,1
a
Department of Transportation Engineering and Geotechnics, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos, 6627, School of Engineering, Building 1, Room 3609,
30270-901 Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
b
Urban Cleansing Authority, Waste Treatment and Final Disposal Department, Rodovia BR 040, km 531, Bairro Jardim Filadla, 31950-650 Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Settlement evaluation in sanitary landlls is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-
Received 2 February 2012 varying properties and inuencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load
Accepted 3 October 2012 application and creep, and physicalchemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposi-
Available online 22 November 2012
tion. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landlls are reported in the
literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years
Keywords: in Belo Horizonte experimental landll. Different sets of eld data were used to calibrate three long-term
Landll
settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the cal-
Municipal solid waste
Settlement
ibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual eld data. During the monitoring
Monitoring period of 6 years, signicant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of
Settlement models the experimental landll. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic
and rheological models signicantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in
the calibration. The best ts were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year eld data were
used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger
times and with larger nal settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
As pointed out by many authors, landlls remain an essential part
of waste management systems and in many countries they are the
only economic way of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal.
Given the signicant settlements that must be expected over
long periods of time, the need to reuse landll sites after closure
has provided a strong incentive for the development and validation
of methods for predicting long-term settlements of waste lls.
MSW deposited in landlls is subjected to large long-term
strains in the order of 2550% of the landll initial height (Ember-
ton and Parker, 1987; Edgers et al., 1992; Wall and Zeiss, 1995;
Ling et al., 1998; Qian et al., 2002). This volume reduction is caused
by the decomposition of organic solids and also by physical creep
of the MSW (Sowers, 1973; Park and Lee, 2002).
Mechanisms governing the settlement of MSW landlls are
many and complex and less understood than those occurring in in-
ert soils. This is a result of waste particles deformability, heteroge-
neity of the material, particles of varied size, and the loss of solids
Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 31 3409 1792; fax: +55 31 3409 1831.
E-mail addresses: gustavo@etg.ufmg.br (G.F. Simes), cicerocatapreta@yahoo.
com.br (C.A.A. Catapreta).
1
Tel./fax: +55 31 3277 9808.
due to biodegradation (Sowers, 1973; Gabr et al., 2000). Liu et al.
(2006) mention that landll settlement can be attributed to both
mechanical compression and biological decomposition of solids.
Settlements in landlls include three stages: initial, primary
and secondary compression (El-Fadel and Khoury, 2000; Swati
and Joseph, 2008). Initial compression refers to settlements occur-
ring instantaneously when external loads are applied, and it is gen-
erally associated with the immediate compression of void spaces
and particles due to superimposed loads. Primary compression is
attributed to drainage of uids (liquids and gases).
The settlement of a landll continues after the primary com-
pression due to mechanical creep and mass loss within the landll,
as a result of physico-chemical and biochemical decomposition,
which continue until the waste is fully stabilized (Sowers, 1973).
According to Edil et al. (1990) and Simes and Campos (2002),
the identication of settlement mechanisms in MSW landlls is
important for the interpretation of geomechanical behavior, prop-
osition of long-term settlement models and carrying out long-term
simulations.
In addition to increasing storage capacity, usually waste com-
pression may decrease the inclination of landll slopes, contribut-
ing to stability and allowing vertical expansions.
However, settlement occurrence is undesirable regarding land-
lls maintenance, since it may lead to surface ponding and accu-

0956-053X/$ - see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2012.10.001
 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430
Notation
DH settlement (m)
a primary compressibility parameter (kPa1)
b secondary compressibility parameter (kPa1)
k/b rate of secondary compression (day1)
Dr compressive stress (kPa)
H initial height of MSW landll (m)
t time (day)
S settlement (m)
qo initial rate of settlement (m day1)
Sult nal settlement (m)
e deformation (%)
C 0C compression ratio (primary mechanical compression)
r0 initial vertical stress (kPa)
Dr change in vertical stress (kPa)
mulation of rainwater on the top of the landll, development of
cracks and failure of the cover, damages of the leachate and gas
drainage systems and safety issues (Bjarngard and Edgers, 1990;
Edgers et al., 1992; Ling et al., 1998; Singh, 2005; McDougall,
2011). On the other hand, settlement occurrence can also be indic-
ative of slope failures or, in more common situations, modication
of the landll surface conguration, causing changes in the surface
drainage systems.
Prediction of settlements in MSW landll is difcult because of
the wide range of inuencing factors. McDougall (2011) discusses
comprehensively the main factors inuencing landll settlements.
These include: waste composition; initial unit weight, void ratio
and moisture content; landll dimensions; compaction methods;
lling sequence; waste pre-treatment (incineration, composting,
MBT and others); leachate levels, uctuations and recirculation;
temperature; existence of gas collection and extraction systems;
characteristics of the nal cover; and climate.
Several approaches and models for estimating landll settle-
ment have been proposed. These models, summarized by Liu
et al. (2006) and McDougall (2011), can be divided into the fol-
lowing categories: (i) single-stage time-dependent models, such
as rheological and regression models; (ii) multiple-stage time-
dependent models, which also uses rheological elements and
mathematical functions; and (iii) the so called more fundamental
models, as mentioned by McDougall (2011), which integrate
mechanical, biodegradation and physico-chemical related phe-
nomena. Some of these models are described by White et al.
(2004), McDougall (2007), Hettiarachchi et al. (2007a,b, 2009),
Gourc et al. (2010), Babu Sivakumar et al. (2010a,b) and Liu
et al. (2011).
As mentioned by Marques et al. (2003), different approaches
address at least one of the three important mechanisms of MSW
compression: (i) immediate response to applied loading; (ii)
time-dependent mechanical creep, and (iii) waste biological
decomposition. The models proposed by Simes and Campos
(2002), Marques et al. (2003) and Chen et al. (2010) incorporate
separate expressions to explicitly account for the three mecha-
nisms of MSW compression.
In this work, three long-term settlement prediction models pre-
sented in the literature were used to evaluate the Belo Horizonte
Experimental Sanitary Landll behavior and the long-term settle-
ment prediction. The models selected are included in the rst
two categories mentioned above: rheological and hyperbolic
models (single-stage) and composite (multiple-stage).The models
were calibrated with different sets of eld data (1, 3 and 6 years).
421
b coefcient of mechanical creep (secondary compres-
sion) (kPa1)
c rate constant for mechanical creep (secondary compres-
sion) (day1)
EDG total amount of strain that can occur due to biological
decomposition
d rate constant for biological decomposition (day1)
t00 time since placement of the waste in the landll (day)
t0 time since application of the stress increment (day)
D deviation
Y tted values
Y eld values
n number of data
The study is completed with the simulation by using the three
long-term settlement models, whose results were compared with
the eld data obtained at the experimental landll, allowing the
identication of the more suitable model to represent the actual
data. The parameters were also compared with literature results.
As pointed out by McDougall (2011), time-dependent models,
which can be used easily, have not yet been proven successful in
the a priori prediction of either the magnitude or the timing of nal
settlement. On the other hand, the more complex models demand
a large volume of information regarding physical, chemical and
biological properties of waste associated with site information,
such as management practices and climate, which may not be
available at the early stages of planning and design. Therefore,
one of the objectives of this work is to provide parameters of the
simple models that could be used in similar conditions during
the early stages of planning and design of landlls.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Experimental landll
The experimental landll is located at BR 040 Solid Waste Treat-
ment Facility, in the city of Belo Horizonte (19550 S, 43560 W),
State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. It covers an area of about
5.26  103 m2, with a total initial height of 3.8 m (3.2 m of waste
and 0.60 m of nal cover). About 8.6  103 Mg (tons) of MSW
corresponding to 11.55  103 m3 were disposed in the experi-
mental landll.
The climate of the region of Belo Horizonte can be described as
tropical on high altitude, with dry winters and humid summers
(Kopen Cwa). Fig. 1 shows daily precipitation and average tem-
perature registered at the experimental landll site over the rst
6 years of monitoring.
The construction of the experimental landll was carried out
between June 2004 and May 2005. The initial earthworks involved
the removal of the existent vegetation layer and leveling of the
area, to enable the liner and leachate collection system installation.
The liner was composed of a support layer, constituted of 0.40 m
compacted silty-clay soil, a 4.0 mm thick synthetic exible asphal-
tic membrane, and a protection layer, constituted of 0.30 m com-
pacted silty-clay soil. The leachate collection system, composed
of gravel-lled trenches, was constructed above the liner.
The MSW disposal in the experimental landll took 1 month,
from May to June 2005 and involved a series of controlled
422 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430

30

20

Precipitation (mm)
10

Temperature (C)
Temperature

120 0
100
80
Precipitation
60
40
20
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Time (days)

Fig. 1. Daily precipitation and average temperature over the rst 6 years (initial date: June 6, 2005).

Table 1 The experimental landll was divided into six cells, which were
Final settings obtained for each cell. lled with the same type of waste, but subjected to different com-
Cell Number of compactor Average slope of Average bulk waste
paction conditions. The eld compaction energy (number of com-
equipment passes working face (V:H) density (kN m3) pactor equipment passes) and slope of working face were varied
1 5 1:2 7.3
in order to obtain different initial density for each cell. Table 1
2 3 1:3 5.8 shows the nal settings obtained for each cell.
3 5 1:3 8.1 The design and construction of this experimental landll were
4 7 1:3 8.2 carried out aiming at the uniformity of waste composition. The
5 5 1:5 8.1
average bulk gravimetric composition of MSW disposed in all
6 5 1:4 8.0
experimental landll cells was: organic matter: 62%; paper and
cardboard: 10%; plastics: 11%; metals: 2%; glasses: 3%; construc-
operational procedures. The lling procedures consisted of spread- tion and demolition wastes: 3%; rubber, foam and ceramics: 1%;
ing the wastes in thin layers (0.50 m) on the working face of the wood, textiles and leather: 4%; and others: 5%. Based on Tchoba-
landll and compaction with Track-Type Tractors with blade, with noglous et al. (1993), the methodology for obtaining gravimetric
a weight of 17 Mg (tons). A 10 cm thick intermediate cover was composition consisted in quartering, sampling, segregation in cat-
placed at the end of each day during the lling. The nal cover egories and weighting. Initial moisture content and volatile solids
was constructed using two congurations. The rst one was made contents were determined with a methodology similar to the one
of a 60 cm compacted clayey soil with 108 m s1 saturated perme- proposed by Machado et al. (2009). The initial average moisture
ability and the second with 40 cm of the same material over a 20 cm content was 60% on a wet weight basis and the initial average vol-
of coarse construction and demolition waste layer. The daily waste atile solids content was 45%. The variation of the average leachate
densities were obtained through topographical measurements car- level inside the experimental landll measured in six piezometers,
ried out at the end of each day and the weight of wastes disposed which can be related to the change in moisture content, as well as
was obtained at the Belo Horizonte Sanitary Landll weighting the leachate collected over the rst 6 years of the experimental
facility. landll monitoring are presented in Fig. 2.

4
Leachate level
Collected leachate (m3.day-1)

2
Leachate level (m)

Base of the landfill

4 0

Collected leachate

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Time (days)

Fig. 2. Collected leachate and average leachate level inside the experimental landll over time (initial date: June 6, 2005).
 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430 423

Fig. 3. Experimental landll.

2.2. Settlement measurements
Immediately after the nal cover construction, 18 settlement
plates were installed, three on each cell. Fig. 3 shows the experi-
mental landll, indicating the six cells and the installed settlement
plates (SP 01SP 18).
These settlement plates were constituted of a concrete block
with a steel rod and were installed between the waste surface
and the nal cover. The settlements were measured using a con-
ventional total station with optical prism, with an accuracy of
about 1.5 mm.
The settlement analysis was performed using the average set-
tlements observed for each group of three plates installed on each
cell. To validate the use of these average values, the Tukeys Test
was carried out. As described by Larsen and Marx (1986), this test
is a multiple comparison procedure, generally used in conjunction
with ANOVA, which enables to determine which means among a
set of means differ from the rest. A description of the procedure
used can be found in Catapreta (2008).
The settlement monitoring started immediately after capping of
the experimental landll. In the present work, eld data of a period
of approximately 6 years, from June 2005 to May 2011, were used.
424 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430

Experimental Sanitary Landll behavior and the long-term settle-

ment prediction. The models selected in order to represent two
of the categories previously mentioned are described as follows.

2.3.1. Rheological model

The rheological model (Edil et al., 1990) is composed of two ele-
ments: a Hookean element (of constant a) connected in series with
a Kelvin element (dened as an Hookean element, of constant b,
connected in parallel with a Newtonian element, of viscosity k/b),
as shown in Fig. 4.
After a stress increment, that can be originated by the weight of
the waste or by loads applied on the surface, the rst Hookean ele-
ment is compressed immediately, similar to the primary compres-
sion in soils. The compression of the Kelvin element is delayed by
the dashpot, in a similar way to the secondary compression under
constant effective stress in soils. The load is then gradually trans-
ferred for the second Hookean element. After a certain time, the
Fig. 4. Rheological model.
whole effective stress will be supported by the two Hookean ele-
ments. This physical model can be represented by the following
mathematical expression:


DHt H  Dr  a b 1  ek=bt 1
where DH is the settlement (m); a the primary compressibility
parameter (kPa1); b the secondary compressibility parameter
(kPa1); k/b the rate of secondary compression (day1); Dr the
compressive stress (kPa); H the initial height of MSW landll (m);
and t is the time (day).

2.3.2. Hyperbolic function

The hyperbolic model was proposed by Ling et al. (1998), and it
is represented by the following expression.
t
S 1
2
qo St
ult

Fig. 5. Composite compressibility model.

Table 2
Taking into account the geotechnical properties and the homoge- Selected settlements and strains measured.
neity of the soil underneath the experimental landll, associated
Cell Average settlement (m) Average strain (%)
with the low stresses induced by the experimental landll, the
long-term foundation settlements were not considered. Year 1 Year 3 Year 6 Year 1 Year 3 Year 6
1 0.34 0.59 0.88 11 19 28
2 0.35 0.62 0.96 11 19 30
2.3. Long-term settlement prediction models evaluated 3 0.39 0.65 0.98 12 20 31
4 0.43 0.72 1.09 13 22 34
5 0.40 0.68 1.05 13 21 33
Three long-term settlement prediction models discussed in the
6 0.38 0.64 0.97 12 20 30
literature were investigated to evaluate the Belo Horizonte

Time (days)
1 10 100 1000 10000
0%

5%

10%
Strain (%)

15%

20%
Cell 1
Cell 2
25%
Cell 3
Cell 4
30% Cell 5
Cell 6
35%

Fig. 6. Strains measured over time.

 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430 425

Table 3
Parameters for rheological model.

Cell 1 Year 3 Years 6 Years

4 3 1 3 1 4 3 1 3 1
D  10 k/b  10 (day ) b  10 (kPa ) D  10 k/b  10 (day ) b  10 (kPa ) D  104 k/b  103 (day1) b  103 (kPa1)
1 2.5 9.17 9.44 11.1 3.29 14.83 25.6 1.51 21.1
2 3.4 11.54 11.34 15.5 3.32 18.89 35.4 1.21 30.7
3 3.5 13.41 9.22 21.2 4.46 13.65 50.7 1.62 20.3
4 4.4 14.12 9.83 26.7 4.44 14.73 65.6 1.46 23.2
5 4.1 12.94 9.57 22.5 4.25 14.37 58.4 1.41 22.9
6 4.3 11.41 9.31 17.3 4.09 13.85 43.2 1.57 20.5

Table 4
Parameters for hyperbolic model.

Cell 1 Year 3 Years 6 Years

D  104 qo  103 (m day1) Sult (m) D  104 qo  103 m day1 Sult (m) D  104 qo  103 m day1 Sult (m)
1 2.4 3.90 0.47 6.5 2.33 0.71 17.3 1.49 1.02
2 3.0 4.95 0.43 9.7 2.43 0.71 27.2 1.32 1.22
3 3.2 6.81 0.47 11.8 3.55 0.68 35.6 1.80 1.05
4 3.5 7.91 0.50 15.0 3.88 0.75 48.8 1.82 1.24
5 3.6 6.78 0.49 12.8 3.51 0.73 44.0 1.68 1.22
6 4.0 5.54 0.48 9.9 3.16 0.70 30.0 1.71 1.06

where S is the settlement (m); t the time (day); qo the initial rate of For each cell settlement data, the best parameters of each model
settlement (m day1); Sult is the nal settlement (m). were achieved through an interactive approximation procedure
using common functions of an electronic spreadsheet. The devia-
2.3.3. Composite compressibility model tions (D) dened as the average of the square differences be-
The composite biological model (Marques et al., 2003) incorpo- tween the tted and eld data (Eq. (5)) were minimized
rates three mechanisms for one-dimensional compression of (Simes and Catapreta, 2010).
MSW: instantaneous response to loading from overlying layers,
mechanical creep associated with the stresses from self-weight RY  Y2
D 4
and the weight of overlying layers and biological decomposition. n
Based on the classication presented by McDougall (2011), the
where Y is the tted values; Y the eld values; and n is the number
model can be included in the multiple-stage time-dependent cate-
of data.
gory, and may not be considered a biodegradation model.
With the calibration parameters obtained after 1 and 3 years, sim-
The mechanisms of this model can be represented by three rheo-
ulations for 6 years were performed. The results were compared with
logical components, as shown in Fig. 5. The rst two are a Hookean
element connected in series with a Kelvin element representing pri-
mary and secondary compression respectively, as described above Table 5
for the rheological model. In series with these rst two elements, a Parameters for composite model.
third body is intended to represent secondary biological-degradation Cell 1 Year
induced volume change and which consists of a nite compression
D  104 b  103 kPa1 c  103 EDG  103 d
element connected in parallel with a Newtonian dashpot element. (day1) (day1)
Analytically, the model can be expressed as:
1 2.3 9.12 8.02 6.97 0.102
 
0
00

DH ro Dr 2 3.0 10.54 9.50 10.78 0.152
e C 0c  log Dr  b  1  ect EDG  1  edt 3 2.9 8.49 11.28 12.23 0.304
H r0 4 3.2 8.81 11.18 17.36 0.357
3 5 3.3 8.80 10.72 13.28 0.409
6 3.8 8.73 9.63 10.82 0.223
where e is the deformation (%); H the height (m); DH the settlement Cell 3 Years
(m); C 0C compression ratioprimary mechanical compression; r0
D  104 b  103 kPa1 c  103 (day1) EDG  103 d(day1)
the initial vertical stress (kPa); Dr the change in vertical stress (kPa);
b the coefcient of mechanical creep (secondary compression) (kPa1); 1 1.8 21.23 0.63 63.54 0.016
2 2.1 33.60 0.48 64.84 0.021
c the rate constant for mechanical creep (secondary compression) 3 2.3 25.76 0.40 84.29 0.021
(day1); EDG the total amount of strain that can occur due to biological 4 2.3 31.86 0.34 91.71 0.023
decomposition; d the rate constant for biological decomposition 5 2.6 29.40 0.36 86.84 0.020
(day1); t00 the time since placement of waste in the landll (day); t0 6 3.0 21.42 0.52 79.58 0.018
is the time since application of the stress increment (day). Cell 6 Years
D  104 b  103 kPa1 c  103 (day1) EDG  103 d(day1)
2.4. Calibration of settlement models 1 3.6 26.62 0.44 68.50 0.0147
2 2.8 69.95 0.19 71.14 0.0179
The calibration of settlements models was accomplished con- 3 3.5 44.63 0.20 90.18 0.0187
sidering the eld data observed during the 6 years of monitoring 4 4.7 64.42 0.16 95.29 0.0211
5 5.5 58.42 0.16 89.70 0.0195
data (Simes and Catapreta, 2011) and were divided into three
6 3.7 40.15 0.23 86.97 0.0159
periods corresponding to 1, 3 and 6 years of monitoring.
426 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430

Table 6 similar patterns. Table 2 shows the average settlements and strains
Comparison of composite models parameters. observed for each cell at the end of the rst, third and sixth year of
Parameter Marques et al. (2003) This study monitoring. Despite the different initial bulk densities, the strains
1
b (kPa ) 5.27  10 4
26.62  10369.95  103 were similar, with an average value of 31%, after 6 years of
c (day1) 1.79  103 0.16  1030.44  103 monitoring.
EDG 0.159 0.0690.095 The Tukeys tests indicated that the settlements observed in the
d (day1) 1.14  103 14.66  10321.06  103 sets of three plates installed on each cell could be represented ade-
quately by the average value.

eld data for the same period. The parameters obtained with 6-year
eld data were used in another simulation, for a period of 10 years.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Settlement measurements
Fig. 6 shows the curves of average strains measured for each cell
over time. As it can be observed, the settlement plates showed
3.2. Calibration of the models
The parameters of the models and deviations (D) obtained by 1,
3 and 6 years of eld data are shown in Tables 35.
The compressibility parameters obtained with the calibration of
the rheological model were similar to the ones mentioned in the
literature (Park et al., 2002). The smallest secondary compression
rates (k/b) were observed for 6 years of eld data calibration, with
average value of to 1.46  103 day1, while the largest average va-
lue was 12.10  103 day1, for 1 year of eld data calibration.

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)

15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(a) Cell 1 (b) Cell 2

Time (days) Time (days)
1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)
Strain (%)

15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(c) Cell 3 (d) Cell 4

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)
Strain (%)

15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(e) Cell 5 (f) Cell 6

Fig. 7. Settlement prediction over 6 years based upon calibration of the models for eld data from 1 year.
 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430 427

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)
15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(a) Cell 1 (b) Cell 2

Time (days) Time (days)
1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)
15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(c) Cell 3 (d) Cell 4

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10% 10%
Strain (%)
Strain (%)

15% 15%

20% 20%
Rheological Rheological
25% Hyperbolic 25% Hyperbolic

Composite Composite
30% 30%
Field Data Field Data

35% 35%

(e) Cell 5 (f) Cell 6

Fig. 8. Settlement prediction over 6 years based upon calibration of the models for eld data from 3 years.

Table 7 Table 8
Strain prediction for the end of the sixth year based upon calibration of the models for Strain prediction for the end of the sixth year based upon calibration of the models for
eld data from 1 year. eld data from 3 years.

Cell Strain (%) Cell Strain (%)

Field Rheological Hyperbolic Composite Field Rheological Hyperbolic Composite
data model model model data model model model
1 28 11 14 11 1 28 17 19 25
2 30 11 13 11 2 30 18 19 27
3 31 12 14 12 3 31 18 20 28
4 34 13 15 13 4 34 19 21 31
5 33 13 15 13 5 33 19 21 29
6 30 12 14 12 6 30 18 20 26

Regarding the hyperbolic model, the initial settlement rates
(qo) observed were similar to the values observed by Ling et al.
(1998).
For the composite model, large differences of calibrated param-
eters were observed between the calibrations of 1, 3 and 6 years of
eld data. A comparison of the results obtained in this study, con-
sidering the values obtained with the calibration from data of
6 years, and the average results of Marques et al. (2003) is showed
in Table 6. The differences observed are probably due to the scale
and characteristics of the landlls studied.
428 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10%
10%

15%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)
15%
20%
20%
Rheological 25% Rheological
25% Hyperbolic Hyperbolic
30%
Composite Composite
30% 35%
Field Data Field Data

35% 40%

(a) Cell 1 (b) Cell 2

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5%
5%
10%
10%
15%
15%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)
20%

20% 25%

30%
25% Rheological Rheological
Hyperbolic 35% Hyperbolic
30%
Composite 40% Composite
35% Field Data Field Data
45%

40% 50%

(c) Cell 3 (d) Cell 4

Time (days) Time (days)

1 10 100 1000 10000 1 10 100 1000 10000
0% 0%

5% 5%

10%
10%
15%
15%
Strain (%)

Strain (%)

20%
20%
25%
Rheological 25% Rheological
30%
Hyperbolic Hyperbolic
30%
35%
Composite Composite

40% Field Data 35% Field Data

45% 40%

(e) Cell 5 (f) Cell 6

Fig. 9. Settlement prediction over 10 years based upon calibration of the models for eld data from 6 years.

With respect to the deviations, the average values observed for and 8). The parameters obtained by 6-year eld data calibration
rheological and hyperbolic models augmented with the increase of were used to predict the long-term strains for a period of 10 years
the number of eld data used in the calibration, suggesting the lim- (Fig. 9 and Table 9).
itations of these models by considering the characteristics of this
experimental landll. The composite model showed the lowest
deviations, demonstrating a good t of the model results to the Table 9
eld data in all the calibrations. It should also be considered that Strain prediction for the end of the tenth year based upon calibration of the models
for eld data from 6 years.
composite is a two stage model with two more tting parameters
than the other models used, what probably makes it more Cell Strain (%)
accurate. Rheological model Hyperbolic model Composite model
1 25 27 32
3.3. Settlement prediction 2 28 30 40
3 26 28 38
The parameters obtained with the calibration using 1 and 3- 4 30 33 47
5 29 32 43
year eld data were used to predict the long-term strains and com-
6 26 28 38
pare with 6-year eld monitoring data (Figs. 7 and 8 and Tables 7
 G.F. Simes, C.A.A. Catapreta / Waste Management 33 (2013) 420430
It can be observed in Fig. 7 that all the models signicantly
underestimate the settlement at year six, considering the calibra-
tion with 1 year of eld data. When using eld data from 3 and
6 years (Figs. 8 and 9), the results of rheological and hyperbolic
continue underestimating the settlements and the results of com-
posite model showed a good agreement with eld data.
The results conrmed that the longer the period used in the cal-
ibration, the larger and closer to eld data are the long-term
strains. The use of parameters obtained with the calibration of
short periods underestimated the long-term settlements, even
with small deviations obtained in calibration. As pointed out by
Chen et al. (2010), it is quite difcult to reliably predict post-
closure compression and ultimate settlement of landlls using
short-term settlement data.
The composite model results showed a tendency towards sta-
bilization at larger times and with larger nal settlements, when
compared to the other models studied. Considering the presence
of slowly degradable organic wastes, it is expected that complete
stabilization of the landll takes place only in the long-term.
4. Conclusions
The results conrmed that settlement prediction in sanitary
landlls is complex, what can be attributed to the heterogeneity
of the wastes and the complex mechanisms involved in the
process.
Limitations of the models considered in this study were veried,
suggesting that long-term settlement prediction in MSW Landll
may not be restricted to the use of a single model. The use and
comparison of different models should be considered and applied
to dene nal settlements ranges, mainly during the early stages
of planning and design.
For a monitoring period of 6 years, the results observed in the
experimental landll indicated signicant vertical strains of up to
31%.
The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by
the hyperbolic and rheological models signicantly underestimate
the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibra-
tion. These models also suggest that the landll would be reaching
the nal phase of stabilization in earlier stages, which is different
from the results obtained by the composite model and observed
in the eld.
The best ts were obtained with the composite model, except
when 1 year eld data were used in the calibration. The results
indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger -
nal settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological
models.
The results conrmed that the longer the periods of settlement
data used in the calibration, the larger and closer to eld data the
long-term settlements predictions. As pointed out by Chen et al.
(2010), it is quite difcult to reliably predict post-closure compres-
sion and ultimate settlement of a landll site using short-term
settlement data. This fact was also observed in the present study,
in which the use of parameters obtained with the calibration of
the models using short-term settlement data underestimated the
long-term settlements, even with the good ts and small devia-
tions observed in calibration, as those observed for the composite
model.
Acknowledgements
The authors are especially thankful to the Urban Cleansing
Authority of Belo Horizonte (SLU-PBH) for their assistance and
cooperation in this study; the National Council for Scientic and
Technological Development (CNPq) and the Foundation for
429
Research Support of the State of Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) for the
continuous nancial support.
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