Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Chapter 13
Operations As a Competitive
Weapon
Operations Strategy
Project Management Process Strategy
Process Analysis
Process Performance and Quality
Constraint Management
Process Layout Supply Chain Strategy
Lean Systems Location
Inventory Management
Forecasting
Sales and Operations Planning
Resource Planning
Scheduling
Horizontal Trend
Seasonal Cyclical
regression Y = a + bX
equation
{ Actual
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = Y-intercept of the line
value b = slope of the line
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
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Linear Regression
Example 13.1
The following are sales and advertising data for the past 5 months for
brass door hinges. The marketing manager says that next month the
company will spend $1,750 on advertising for the product. Use linear
regression to develop an equation and a forecast for this product.
250
Y = 8.135 + 109.229X
200
a = 8.135
150 b = 109.229X
r = 0.98
100 r2 = 0.96
syx= 15.603
50
| | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
430
Patient arrivals
410
390
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
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Example 13.2
Solution continued
Week
2007 Pearson Education
Application 13.1
80 Trend-adjusted
forecast
70
60
Patient arrivals
50
Actual blood
40 test requests
30
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
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Forecast for Medanalysis Using the
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Model
thousand
thousand
To make forecasts for periods beyond the next period, multiply the trend
estimate by the number of additional periods, and add the result to the
current
2007 average
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2007 Pearson Education
Seasonal Patterns
Seasonal patterns are regularly repeated upward
or downward movements in demand measured in
periods of less than one year.
An easy way to account for seasonal effects is to use one
of the techniques already described but to limit the data in
the time series to those time periods in the same season.
Demand has been increasing by an average of 400 customers each year. The forecast
demand is found by extending that trend, and projecting an annual demand in year 5 of 2,200
+ 400 = 2,600 customers.
2007 Pearson Education
Example 13.5 OM Explorer Solution
[ |Et | / Dt ](100)
MAPE = n
Tracking signal: A measure that indicates
whether a method of forecasting is accurately
predicting actual changes in demand.
CFE
Tracking signal =
MAD
2007 Pearson Education
Calculating Forecast Error
Example 13.6
The following table shows the actual sales of
upholstered chairs for a furniture manufacturer and
the forecasts made for each of the last eight months.
Calculate CFE, MSE, MAD, and MAPE for this product.
Absolute
Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
t Dt Ft Et Et2 |Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
1 200 225 -25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total 15 5275 195 81.3%
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Example 13.6 Forecast Error Measures
Cumulative forecast error (bias): CFE = 15
15
Average forecast error (mean bias): E= = 1.875
8
5275
Mean squared error: MSE = = 659.4
8
195
Mean absolute deviation: MAD = = 24.4
8
81.3%
Mean absolute percent error: MAPE = = 10.2%
8
CFE -15
Tracking signal = = = -0.6148
MAD 24.4
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2007 Pearson Education
Forecast Error Ranges
Forecasts stated as a single value can be less useful because they
do not indicate the range of likely errors. A better approach can be
to provide the manager with a forecasted value and an error range.
% of area of normal probability distribution within control limits of the tracking signal
+0.5
0
0.5 CFE
1.0 Tracking signal =
MAD
Control limit
1.5
| | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25
2007 Pearson Education Observation number
OM Solver Output for Medical Clinic Patient Arrivals
250
225
Year 2
200
175
Visibility rating
150
125
100
75
50 Year 1
25
0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
22 25 28 31 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 14 27 30
July August
Date
2007 Pearson Education