Caution: Please note that your copy/access to our website is for your exclusive use only.

Any attempt to share your access to our website or forwarding your copy to a
non-subscriber will disqualify your membership and we will be compelled to stop your supply and forfeit your subscription thereafter without any refund to you.

T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.14 Monday, 6 12 February 2017 Pgs.20 Rs.18

Markets await rate cut Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &

By Sanjay R. Bhatia Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
to get a view of the stock market and the
The markets moved higher in the absence of any negative cues in
happenings which many may not be aware of.
the Budget. Sustained and broad based buying support was
witnessed as the Nifty inched closer to the 8800 mark. The markets displayed no signs of weakness, though profit
booking and selling pressure were witnessed at higher levels. The breadth of the market was positive amidst higher
volumes, which is a positive sign for the markets. The FIIs were net buyers in the cash as well as the derivative segments.
Moreover, domestic institutions continued to remain net buyers and were seen supporting the markets regularly. Crude
oil prices continued to hover around the $53.50-$57 mark on the back of high inventory data. The global markets
remained nervous due to Donald Trumps immigration policy, while the US Federal Reserve maintained a status quo on
interest rates till the next meeting to be held in March. The domestic markets are now hoping for a rate cut after the
Union Budget in the forthcoming RBI committee meeting to be held on 7-8 February.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions
Believe it or not!
helped the markets move higher. The Stochastic, MACD, RSI
CCL Products recommended at Rs.272.95 as
and KST are all placed above their respective averages on
SW on 16 January 2017 zoomed to Rs.321.50
the daily and weekly charts. The Nifty is placed above its
50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. These fetching 18% returns in just three weeks!
positive technical conditions would lead to regular buying Arrow Textiles recommended at Rs.41.70 in TT
support. However, the prevailing negative technical on 9 January 2017 zoomed to Rs.51.30 fetching
conditions still hold good. The Stochastic is placed in the 23% returns in just one month!
overbought zone on the daily and weekly charts. Further, Intense Technologies recommended at
the RSI is also placed in the overbought zone on the daily Rs.117.40 as SW on 12 December 2017 zoomed
charts. The Death Cross breakdown on the Nifty holds to Rs.217 fetching 85% returns in less than two
valid, as the Niftys 50-day SMA is placed below Niftys 100- months!
day SMA and 200-day SMA. These negative technical Goldiam International recommended at
conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of profit Rs.63.6 as EE on 5 December 2016 zoomed to
booking and selling pressure especially at higher levels. The Rs.89.05 fetching 40% returns in just two
ADX line is placed above the -DI line and is also placed months!
above the 36 level on the daily charts. The +DI line is placed Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company
above the ADX line and DI line and above 38, indicating recommended at Rs.45.15 as SB on 5 December
that buyers have an upper hand but it has also come off its 2016 zoomed to Rs.60.4 fetching 34% returns in
recent highs, indicating that buyers are also booking profits. just two months!
The market sentiment remains positive. The Nifty has (EE Expert Eye; SB Stock Buzz; SW Stock
managed to sustain above the 8673 level and it is important Watch; TT Tower Talk)
that it continues to sustain above it for Nifty to test the This happens only in Money Times!
8807 resistance level. The 8460 and 8300 levels are Now in its 26th Year
important support levels. In case the Nifty fails to hold the

A Time Communications Publication 1

8300 mark, then increased selling pressure is
likely. The markets will now eye the RBI policy
meet and await a rate cut. Any disappointment
could lead to profit booking and selling
pressure. In the meanwhile, the markets would
take cues from forthcoming RBI policy, Rupee
dollar exchange, global markets and crude
prices.
Technically, on the upside BSE Sensex faces
resistance at the 28257, 28478, 28872 and
29078 levels while it seeks support at the
28100, 27650, 27131, 26730, 26397, and 25900
levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are
placed at 8737, 8807 and 8969 levels. The
Nifty's support is placed at 8673, 8600, 8510,
8460, 8300, 8250, and 8200 levels.

BAZAR.COM
Remonetising Bharat
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has begun remonetizing India and the Union Budget 2017-18 was an indication of this.
Sandwiched between the demonetisation announced on 8 November 2016 and State Polls of mid-February and March
2017, it was a tight rope walk for the FM. After the demonetisation pain, it was time for the aam aadmi to gain and that
is what came in small and medium doses. FM stuck to the simple principle of creating gains and presented the most
decisive budget of the NaMo government.
The simple formula of GDP = C (consumer spending) + I (investments and capital formulation) + G (government
spending) + E (exports and imports) was applied. He knew well that the pain that of the currency swap will not be
healed till the economy takes off and the kick start will be though government spending. In the formula, G thus became
the centrifugal force, which the FM chose to leverage tax buoyancy and the Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) revenues
to pump this prime spending.
Rural Bharat and agriculture remain the key focus areas. The budget proposed various initiatives that promise to
improve farmers income and productivity like higher investment in irrigation, higher coverage under crop insurance, a
fund to develop dairies, wider access to credit and expansion of agri-markets by de-notifying fruits and vegetables.
Agri: Agri boost initiatives include:
Agri credit raised to Rs.10 lakh crore
Incentives offered to entrepreneurs setting up mini labs for soil testing
Coverage under Fasal Bima Yojana raised to 40% in 2017-18 and to 50% in 2018-19
60 days interest waiver on loans to farmers
Bring farmers closer to agro-processing units for better LIVE MARKET DAILY
pricing realisation (Nifty, Bank Nifty & Live Market Calls)
Model law on contract-farming is underway
Identifies intra-day Trading Opportunities and also
Corpus of long-term irrigation fund raised to Rs.40000 provides positional calls for a day or two depending
crore
on the range of the target.
Expansion of national agriculture market (e-NAM) to
585 APMCs.
Available daily by SMS or on Live Chat
Last but not the least, the government continues to Subscription Rate: Rs.4000 per month & Rs.36000 p.a.
pursue doubling of farmers income in 5 years as Contact us on 022-22616970 for a FREE 2-Day Trial.
announced in last years budget.
Rural: Rural thrust comes with allocation of Rs.48000 crore to MNREG (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme) for 2017-18. MNREGA should create productive assets to improve farm productivity and incomes.
This single measure will contribute greatly to drought-proofing of gram panchayats, said Jaitley.

A Time Communications Publication 2

 Rural roads under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana are constructed at a pace of 130 kms/day (73 kms/day over
2011-14). The central government has apportioned Rs.19000 crore, which along with the state governments
contribution adds up to Rs.27000 crore for 2017-18.
Rural houses under Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana aims to complete 1 crore houses by 2019 for the homeless and
those staying in kuchha houses.
Rural Electrification Programme aims at achieving 100% village electrification by 1 May 2018. A sum of Rs.4814
crore is allocated under Deendayal Upadhyay Gram Jyoti Yojana.
Rural Livelihood Mission, Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramia), safe drinking water, imparting vocational skills etc. are
some of the programmes initiated for farmers and the rural population.
A total allocation of Rs.187223 crore (24% higher than the previous year) is expected to kick-start the spending. This, in
turn, may propel the wings of consumer spending which in turn shall compel the private sector to embark on capex and
enhance capacities.
Realty: Affordable housing segment derives maximum advantage with industry labeled as infrastructure. Ease of foreign
funding, ease of domestic loans, government support of finance to such home seekers may change the rules of the
housing sector. This is an industry which can fuel the growth engine of the Indian economy.
Infrastructure: This sector gets priority in re-starting stalled projects and gearing up road connectivity, sea-ports, rail
connectivity and airports. Power and telecom connect becomes a must if India wants to go digital.
The market behaviour a day prior to the budget presentation indicated liquidation of longs and creation of shorts. A
continuous six day fall prior to the budget saw erosions of nearly 3-4%. With nothing untoward coming in the budget
and the FM firing on future growth cylinders, saw a sharp climb of nearly 500 Sensex and 150 Nifty points. The sectors
that warrant immediate attention and can fetch multibagger returns are power, road construction, banks, NBFCs,
pharma, defence, oil & gas, auto and realty.
You may take this advice with a pinch of salt if the BJP is upset in State polls. Loss of UP, Punjab and Goa may spark
mayhem in the markets. The budget will be just a historical document in such a scenario. So, let the budget tailwinds
cool and let the political headwinds blow. Keep an eye on the political equations that develop from hereon.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Supply Zone for profit booking
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV Last week, the
Last Close 28240 Up 27479 Up 27155 Up 26411 Sensex opened
at 27866.80,
attained a low at 27590.10 and moved to a high of 28299.92 before it finally closed the week at 28240.52 and thereby
showed a net rise of 358 points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily
The 61.8% retracement has been crossed. The next retracement levels of the fall from 29077 to 25717 are placed at
28356 and 28698 respectively.
RSI is in the overbought zone and exhaustion on the daily chart could happen at the current level or at the higher
retracement level of 28356 or at 28698.
Weekly
Expect the Sensex to move towards the 78.6% retracement of the fall from 29077 to 25717. The 78.6% and 88.6%
retracements are placed at 28356 and 28698.
Wave (d) could be in place and retrace to 78.6% or to 88.6%. The supply zone is 29162-30024, which is the peak zone
on the weekly historical chart. The peak was at 30024 and in the same week the low was 29162. Therefore, the supply
zone is 29162-30024.
Weekly support is at 28043-27787-27500.
Yearly Levels for 2017
Last Close Level 1 Level 2 Center Point Level 3 Level 4 The yearly open-close logic is as follows: If the
27238 16472 23054 26066 29637 36220 Sensex is above the open (26711) and also above

A Time Communications Publication 3

the last years close (26626), then the yearly uptrend will stay. Trade long with a stop loss as the current years low or
the previous years close (whichever is lower). In the current situation, the lowest is the current years low of 26447,
which remains a stop loss alert for the 2017 uptrend.
If the Sensex remains above the center point, then the Yearly Level 3 of 29637 could be attained. A minimum upside for
the year 2017 could be 29637 while the maximum possible could be 36220. Similarly, if the Sensex sustains below
26066, then the minimum lower level for 2017 could be 23054 (Level 2) and the maximum possible lower level could be
16472. The levels will be focused by the movements of the Sensex.
Broadly, till the uptrend from 25753 is intact, the bias would be to move towards 29637 with the high top and higher
bottom formation within the swing from 25753.
Generally it is said that when the market is moving up all talks of upper levels surface and vice versa. As long as a higher
top and higher bottom formation remains of the swing, it is prudent to talk of higher levels as long as the Dow Theory
concept holds.
From the band angle, we had mentioned that the two-year high/low of 30024/22494 could be critical in 2017. A
sideways volatility and consolidation between the two-year high/low is expected, which means consolidation,
correction and sideways volatility.
Considering the fact that the markets witnessed a breakout in the year 2013 followed by a follow-up rally in 2014, the
year 2015-2016 can be considered as a correction with sideways volatility for consolidation to eventually give way to
the next breakout above the peak of 30024 in 2017 or in 2018. The priority bias is for a correction and sideways
volatility to take place in 2017 unless a decisive breakout is witnessed immediately within the first six months of 2017.
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Up
3-Day trend - Up
8-Day trend - Up
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up
Monthly chart:
1-Month trend - Up
3-Month trend - Up
8-Month trend - Up
Quarterly chart:
1-Quarter trend - Up
3-Quarter trend - Up
8-Quarter trend -Up
Yearly chart:
1-Year trend - Up
Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
A running commentary of intra-day trading
3-Year trend -Up recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss on
8-Year trend - Up your mobile every trading day of the moth along with pre-
BSE Mid-Cap Index market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
Trend based on RoC Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
Weekly chart: moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up

A Time Communications Publication 4

The BSE Mid-Cap index is all set to test back the peak of 13713 from the current level of 13285. As long as 11448 is not
violated, the objective may remains to accumulate at lower levels and in corrections. Supply and profits booking
pressure could be witnessed at 13500-13715.
On a breakout and close above 13714, a rally towards 14700 may be witnessed.
BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up
The BSE Small Cap index made a peak in 2008 at 14239. The same is not yet crossed. This shows the long-term under
performance of BSE Small Cap index.
The potential to scale up in BSE Small Cap index can be significant if a sustained breakout and close above the peak of
14239 is witnessed in time to come.
For near-term to short-term, the BSE Small Cap index is likely to test -14239 the peak of 2008. Profit booking pressure
could be seen as it tries to hit the peak.
Therefore, a sustained breakout above 14239 is essential for the medium-to-long-term henceforth. Near-term weakness
is below 11500.
Strategy for the week
The low registered last week was 27590 and it closed at 28240. We had suggested the levels of 27608-27236 for buying
last week. Traders who managed to implement at 27608 or below had the opportunity to benefit.
A weaker opening and correction to 28043-27787 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 27500. Traders already long
can revise up the stop loss of 27500. Supply zone of 28631-29077 and 29162-30024 can be used to book profits. Profit
booking at the supply zone is suggested as sustainability of momentum on the upside can be an issue.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS

Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with
whatever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above
then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change
from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
NMDC 148.30 143.0 144.2 147.1 151.2 158.2 72.5 145.0 06-01-17
INDRAPRASTHA GAS 967.45 933.1 940.1 960.4 987.7 1035.2 70.2 944.8 09-12-16
SAIL (STEEL AUTHORIT 65.55 62.8 63.2 65.2 67.6 72.0 69.2 61.2 06-01-17
VAKRANGEE LIMITED 309.60 303.1 303.8 308.9 314.7 325.6 68.4 302.4 13-01-17
VESUVIUS INDIA 1240.00 1190.0 1206.7 1223.3 1256.7 1306.7 67.9 1196.3 30-12-16

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS

Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever
high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to
cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from
Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
BHARTI INFRATEL 299.75 197.6 270.1 312.8 342.5 355.6 29.43 340.16 27-01-17
BLUE DART EXPRESS 4320.00 4041.7 4248.7 4384.3 4455.7 4520.0 32.48 4438.00 03-02-17
ALEMBIC PHARMA 557.30 513.9 543.5 559.2 573.1 575.0 35.06 581.81 16-12-16

A Time Communications Publication 5

 ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES 887.00 802.3 860.3 891.7 918.3 923.0 36.20 908.25 23-12-16
GLAXO SMITHKLINE PHA 2699.00 2567.3 2656.3 2702.7 2745.3 2749.0 37.46 2722.50 03-02-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Last Supply Supply Supply Demand Monthly

Scrip Strong Above
Close Point Point Point Point RS
GUJ.ALKALIES & CHEM. 369.95 374.44 376.12 377.81 383.25 345.9 55.31

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
VIJAYA BANK 66.65 63.32 61.17 59.03 52.10 99.6 78.79
SUN TV NETWORK 683.85 632.91 612.50 592.09 526.00 978.9 64.53
ZEE LEARN 48.45 48.29 47.82 47.36 45.85 56.2 63.83
INDIAN BANK 289.10 283.60 281.00 278.40 270.00 327.6 63.81
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIE 131.40 128.72 127.53 126.33 122.45 149.0 59.46
TRENT 250.75 248.61 245.40 242.19 231.80 303.0 57.94
GRUH FINANCE 355.10 351.59 349.05 346.51 338.30 394.6 54.58
NATCO PHARMA 722.00 709.41 701.50 693.59 668.00 843.4 50.65

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a
possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Last Weak Supply RS-

Scrip BSE Code Demand Point Trigger Supply point Strength
Close below point
NETWORK 18 FINCAP 532798 37.25 35.90 37.60 34.90 39.3 42.0 86.74
CINEMAX INDIA 532807 84.55 82.25 85.95 77.05 91.5 100.4 75.29
MAX INDIA LTD 539981 147.40 141.55 149.70 139.00 156.3 167.0 66.5
ASHFL 539017 67.00 65.10 70.00 60.00 76.2 86.2 61.57
TRIVENI TURBINE 533655 125.15 119.50 125.90 118.35 130.6 138.1 57.89
UNITY INFRAPROJECTS 532746 9.25 8.86 9.80 8.51 10.6 11.9 57.36
IVRCL INFRASTRUCTURE 530773 5.11 4.75 5.25 4.61 5.7 6.3 53.65
WONDERLA 538268 376.15 370.80 381.00 358.00 395.2 418.2 51.61
RAJ TELEVISION NETWO 532826 66.05 61.55 72.00 58.80 80.2 93.4 50.24

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value(volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.

TOWER TALK
The share of Sintex Industries may rise substantially on account of wealth creation due to the impending demerger
of the Companys business coupled with softening of interest rates and higher allocation for Swachh Bharat Abhiyan.
VST Tillers Tractors and Shakti Pumps stand to benefit from the populist budget which projects to double
farmers' income by 2022.

A Time Communications Publication 6

 InterGlobe Aviations Q3 PAT fell 26% due to a surge in fuel charges. Stay away from this counter as oil prices are
set to rise further.
Although Bajaj Auto posted 5% lower PAT for Q3 on lower sales due to demonetisation, a recovery is around the
corner. Hold.
As indicated in the previous issues of Money Times, IOC posted a healthy rise of 31% in Q3 PAT. The stock is still a
good buy.
ICICI Banks Q3 PAT fell 19%. With NPAs on the rise, it is prudent to stay away from this counter.
The government is committed to supply power to all villages in the country by 2018. An electrifying opportunity to
invest in Power Finance Corporation and Rural Electrification Corporation at the current rock bottom share
prices.
With a rise in disposal income on account of income tax reduced from 10% to 5% for the lower income group, FMGC
major Marico is set to rise.
Customs duty on import of LNG is reduced from 5% to 2.5%. A big positive for the industry, especially for Petronet
LNG.
Vijaya Banks innovative retail banking has resulted in excellent Q3 results and the trend is likely to continue. It is a
good buy at the current rate.
Zydus Wellness (a Cadila associate) is tipped for excellent results going forward. Investors need not worry about
the tepid Q2 results.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals PAT doubled in Q2 and is poised for further gains going forward. Buy this underpriced
share before it gets out of hand.
Reliance Infrastructure and Power Mech Projects are set to gain ground given the potential of the industry.
Cineline India, which is into realty and entertainment industries, has shown signs of a recovery. The stock may
soon regain its Rs.100+ glory.
Force Motors may gain momentum as the budget was silent on imposition of additional burden on large sized
emission related automobile companies.
Britannia Industries is faring extremely well. So buy BBTC formerly Bombay Burmah Trading Company Ltd, which
holds around 50.5% stake.
The budget proposes to educate and increase agricultural credit to farmers. Coromandel International and
Monsanto India are good buys.
The Finance Minister has proposed to allot Rs.5473 crore for developing solar parks. Ujaas Energy is an excellent
buy for the long-term.
Indiabulls Housing Finance and Dewan Housing Finance Corporation are likely to notch an EPS of Rs.80 (FV:
Rs.2) and Rs.40 (FV: Rs.10) in FY18 as both companies are big beneficiaries of the Budget proposals. These housing
finance stocks could appreciate by over 40% going forward.
A fund manager strongly recommends Rico Auto Industries for a price target of Rs.100 in the medium-term as the
ongoing capex will be EPS accretive.
Jindal Worldwide is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.30 in FY17. The stock is poised to touch Rs.300 on a forward P/E of
10x.
An Ahmedabad broker recommends SP Apparels for a price target of Rs.500. Going by the ongoing capex, the
Company is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.35-40 in FY18.
The higher allocation and thrust on agriculture is highly beneficial for Sakuma Exports, which focuses mainly on
agricultural exports. The stock has the potential to cross Rs.100 as the Company is set to notch an EPS of Rs.22 in
FY17 and Rs.27 in FY18.
SNL Bearings (SNL), promoted by NRB Bearings (NRB), recently posted its Q3 numbers with an EPS of Rs.20 on
annualized basis. The Company has consistently delivered good results. The NRB share trades at a P/E of 21.06x
whereas the SNL share trades at just 14.17x. The stock could easily double from its current level.
Amarjothi Spinning Mills, which holds the top position in speciality mlange yarn segment, posted excellent Q3
results. With a likely EPS of Rs.25 for FY17, the stock trades cheap at a P/E of 6x. Anil Kumar Goel known for his
value picks has recently bought around 3% stake in the Company.

A Time Communications Publication 7

 Akshar Chem (India) has delivered excellent results quarter after quarter. Watch the stock zoom to the 4 digit
mark soon.
Sugar stocks are back in vogue due to the rising prices and short supply. Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries
holds a lot of inventory at lower prices. The stock could easily appreciate by 50%.
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Ajmera Realty Infra, Bhansali Engineering Polymers, Indraprastha
Medical Corporation, Makers Laboratories, Orient Abrasives, Pudumjee Paper Products and Tamil Nadu
Petro Products.

BEST BET
Sanofi India Ltd
(BSE Code: 500674) (CMP: Rs.4079.90) (FV: Rs.10)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Sanofi India Ltd (SIL) was incorporated in May 1956 as Hoechst Fedco Pharma Pvt Ltd. Over the years, its name was
changed to Hoechst Pharmaceuticals Pvt Ltd, Hoechst India Ltd, Hoechst Marion Roussel Ltd and Aventis Pharma Ltd.
Sanofi, a leading pharmaceutical company, along with its 100% subsidiary - Hoechst GmbH, are the major shareholders
of SIL which together hold 60.4% of its paid-up share capital.
SILs portfolio includes pharmaceuticals and consumer healthcare products. Within pharmaceuticals, the Company has a
strong presence in diabetes and has built a strong and balanced portfolio with oral and insulin products. It has state-of-
the-art manufacturing facilities at Ankleshwar in Gujarat (chemistry and pharmaceuticals) and Verna Industrial Park in
Goa (pharmaceuticals). Its facility at Medchal in Hyderabad (insulin) is operated by its 100% subsidiary, Shanta Biotech,
and production is likely to start in H2CY17.
Sanofi is a global health care leader that develops and distributes therapeutic solutions worldwide. It offers a wide
variety of therapeutic solutions across Diabetes, Cardiovascular diseases, Anti-Infectives, Central Nervous System,
Consumer healthcare, Nutraceuticals, Anti-histamines, etc. Its four products viz. Lantus, Combiflam, Clexane and
Allegra feature in the list of top 100 pharmaceutical brands.
In the hospital space, SIL supports the IHOP (In Hospitals Protocols) initiative, which aims at developing a common
treatment protocol for diabetes management within hospitals. In the Oral portfolio space, it supported the South Asian
Federation of Endocrine Societies (SAFES) in developing a South Asian consensus on safe and smart use of
sulphonylureas, which was published in the Indian Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism.
SIL has a diversified portfolio in Cardio-metabolism, Central Nervous System, Intensive Care, Consumer Healthcare,
Gastrointestinal Disorders, Anti-Infectives, Bone & Joint, Respiratory, etc. Having gained the trust and confidence of
physicians and patients, many of its brands are leaders in their respective categories.
SIL manufactures ~90% of its medicines marketed in India indigenously in line with the governments 'Make in India
initiative. Its products are least affected by USFDA issues. The Company has developed an affordable, high quality,
indigenous reusable insulin injection pen - AllStar, which received worldwide recognition for innovation and cost
effectiveness.
Opportunities and Threats: The industry will continue to grow
Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
given the rising affordability among the fast growing middle-class
group coupled with improving medical infrastructure and rising Particulars CY14 CY15 CY16E CY17P
insurance penetration. The hospital segment, in particular, is Sales 2042 2245 2510 2768
expected to grow significantly with the continuing expansion of Expenditure 1639 1734 1952 2095
corporate hospitals groups especially in the metros. PBDT 403 510 558 673
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has released a list of Net Profit 264 322 354 414
National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) whose prices are EPS (in Rs.) 115 140 154 180
regulated by the government. During FY16, 106 new molecules
were added and 70 molecules were deleted from the earlier list announced in 2011, because of which the pricing
pressures shall continue.
The industry has to mandatorily follow the Unified Code of Pharmaceutical Medical Practices (UCPMP), a voluntary code
promulgated by the Department of Pharmaceuticals in 2015 to implement ethical marketing practices. SIL already
follows strict guidelines with regard to ethical dealings with Healthcare professionals in the overall interest of the
industry and for the benefit of its patients.

A Time Communications Publication 8

Conclusion: At the CMP of Rs.4079.90, the stock trades at a P/E at 26.4x on CY16E and 22.6x on CY17P earnings. Given
the bright future outlook of this leading global pharmaceutical company, the stock looks quite attractive at the current
valuations. We have a Buy on this stock with a price target of Rs.5400 (30x to CY17E earnings) within a year.

GURU SPEAK
Markets to remain bullish
Interest rate cut is a must
Amid all the speculation and commotion about the Union Budget likely to be populist on account of the elections in five
states in February and March 2017, the Guru Speak column once again came out with its bold and strong conviction
that the forthcoming budget will prove to be A path-breaking budget in the last issue released
in Mumbai on Saturday, 28 January 2017. Speculation was rife about individual tax limit
exemption to increase by at least Rs.50000 from Rs.2.50 lakh to Rs.3 lakh, reduction in
corporate tax, tweaking Long-Term Capital Gains and several goodies here and there to please
the voter classes but nothing of this sort happened.
Believe it or not, the market was quite tense right from 11 am when FM Arun Jaitley started
reading the budget proposal in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday, 1 February 2107. There was
By G. S. Roongta practically no fluctuation in stock prices during his two and a half hour speech. Perhaps for the
first time, the market did not witness any wide fluctuation beyond 25 to 50 Sensex points
throughout the budget speech. But no sooner the budget speech ended, several analysts rushed to enquire if there was
any change capital gains on long-term investment and after realizing that there was no change, the market started rising
without looking back. This clearly means that speculators had short positions on fears of long-term capital gains tax
being either abolished or enhanced to two or three years holding period to qualify for exemption.
The market witnessed a smart rally on Wednesday, 1 February 2017, after several years rising steeply by over 500
points in an intra-day rally as against a fall of 200 points last year on the budget day. The Sensex, however, ended with a
clear sweep of 485.68 points at 28141.64 while the CNX Nifty rose 155 points at 8716.40 thus surpassing several Nifty
resistance levels between 8400 and 8680 or Sensex at 28K at last.
The BSE Sensex, which gained 847 points week
before last ending Friday, 27 January 2017, to Mid-caps or Mad-caps?
close at 27882.46 followed by the Niftys rise by 2017 will be watershed year in the history of stock
292 points at 8642, dismissed all fears of market as it takes off from a weak closure of 2016.
demonetisation and the propaganda and
Leading the charge will be the Mid-caps that are
processions carried out by opposition parties led
by Congress and Mamata Banerji. Narendra Modi likely to outperform the large-caps or index stocks.
has once again proved his strength, Another forecast made by Mr. G.S. Roongta.
foresightedness and strong conviction in his fight
against black money v/s growth.
To encash this opportunity, Money Times will launch
Roongtas Mid-cap Twins comprising two mid-cap
Going back to the history of union budgets
presented by several finance ministers right recommendation every month beginning with 1st
from 1950 till 2017, there are hardly 3 or 4 August 2016.
budgets which proved to be a Dream Budgets, Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000
path-breaking or revolutionary (i) Led by Mr. half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually, Roongtas Mid-
Manmohan Singh in 1992; (ii) Mr. P. cap Twins will be available both as print edition or
Chidambaram on 22 July 1996; and now by (iii) online delivery.
Mr. Arun Jaitley on 1 February 2017. Rest of the
Latest edition of Mid-Cap Twins was released on
budgets were just considered as routine
twinkling the tax rates and duties here and there. 1st February 2017
In India, the budget is considered to be most Please book your subscription
important event that decides economic
yardsticks for the year unlike other countries where it is considered as routine just like how a Board of Directors adopt
the Annual Report. This is why the Indian stock markets give so much importance to the budget, which decides the
future course of economy whether it is headed north or south.

A Time Communications Publication 9

The fine print of the budget is already available. So lets analyze the impact of several proposals going forward.
Taxation: The tax rate reduced from 10% to 5% in the first slab will be applicable to all tax payers. However, higher tax
slabs will get higher benefit of Rs.12875 including cess has been imposed 10% extra surcharge. Reduction of tax for any
establishment or smaller firm with annual turnover below Rs.50 crore will pay maximum tax of 25% instead of 30%.
Since almost 96% of corporate tax filing returns come from this category, it is a big boost for small & medium sized
(SME) companies as they benefit by 5% on tax outgo.
Cash Transactions: The finance minister has curbed cash payment above Rs.3 lakh to drive cashless payments. This will
curb black money entering the number two business by paying cash without it coming into the ambit of recorded
business transactions in the books. This will help control black money or doing business out of the books of accounts.
Donations to political parties: This is a big step to bring political parties into the Tax net by restricting donations
above Rs.2000 by cash. Every political party will have one account to receive donations by cheque, electronic mode or
any other mode, the details of which will have to be provided to the Election Commission.
Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB): The budget has phased out the FIPB as the FM feels that there is no
need of FIPB permission to attract foreign money by way of loans, debt or through any other instruments because FDI
covers almost all sectors. This will provide ease in doing business without wasting time and energy to seek FIPB
permission first and is a big boost for doing business through overseas units.
Merger of public sector:
Oil Companies: In order to compete with giant overseas oil companies, the government has decided to merge HPCL,
BPCL, MRPL, ONGC and Indian Oil into one entity so as to get fair deals and competitive rates to purchase crude oil and
other products which are imported almost 80%.
Relief to Medium Tax Payers: Those with turnover between Rs.51 lakh-2 crore, the presumptive tax of 8% of turnover
has been reduced to 6% with restriction on non-cash transaction business only while entities having cash business will
not be eligible.
Relief to Home Buyers: The finance minister has announced Varishta Pension Bima Yojna (VPBY), a modified version
that was floated in FY2015 with guaranteed returns of 8% for 10 years.
Affordable Housing: In line with the Houses for all by 2022 mission, the government increased allocations under
Pradhan Mantri Awast Yojna targeting to construct one crore houses by 2019 increasing the ambit of projects which
would be eligible for tax exemptions under the scheme. This will not only provide a boost to real estate developers and
builders who are facing the heat of recession in their business but also the cement and steel industries, which are
saddled with demand recession.
Tax Holidays to New Business/Start Ups: Eligible start-ups can now avail of three year tax holidays in a block of seven
years instead of five years. The profit-linked deduction available to start-ups for three years out of five years is being
changed to three years out of seven years. The enlarged window for availing tax benefits will give start-ups more time to
reach the stage of earning profits before exercising their options for exemption. However, a condition has been imposed
of holding 51% stake and/or voting rights for the start-up for carrying forward the losses of such entities to be relaxed.
Boost for local Manufacturers: For the Make in India programme to succeeds, the government has initiated a
proposal a concession and changes in indirect taxes for local industries covered under several sectors like IT Hardware,
Capital Goods, Defence Production, Textiles, Minerals, Chemicals, Newsprint and aircraft manufacturing companies.
The Sensex closed higher despite being in the red throughout the session on Friday, 3 February 2017 as if the budget
rally is over. Post budget session on both the days has given this impression, while technical analysts had once again
started giving higher targets of Nifty at 9200.
The market remained range bound closing at 28241 followed by Nifty at 8741 at the week end.
According to me the market is being suppressed deliberately by operators to garner good stocks at lower level because
the budget has ruled out of any populist measures as suspected by political parties and others in the wake of advancing
it by a month for this purpose. The Opposition is now perplexed going forward since the budget proposals are not meant
for the rich but only the poor, kisans, rural public and for villagers.
The FM who seemed determined to give reliefs in Corporate tax has restrained himself from being called friendly of the
rich.
Higher allocations for roads, rural electrification transport, rural development, agriculture, crop insurance, liberal loans
to kisans for crop and cultivation means that the budget is meant for the downtrodden, which will have a long-term
benefit like demonetisation. So next week, it is expected that the RBI will reduce interest rate definitely because it is
flush with huge idle cash for disbursement. And unless interest rates are reduced, there will not be much off-take of

A Time Communications Publication 10

funds by corporates and the business class. So interest rate cut is a must this time. Besides, the corporate performance in
the 3rd quarter has been excellent and above analysts expectations despite the slowdown due to demonetisation fears.
Thirdly, 4th quarter is supposed to be the best quarter for higher production and higher consumption with plenty of
cash crops available as raw materials.
Hence I feel bullish sentiment will prevail this week too with high volatility because fresh buying either by FIIs, mutual
funds, or through retail participation. Bulls will prefer profit booking at higher levels, of course.

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd

(BSE Code: 500830) (CMP: Rs.901.10) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.1025+)
Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd (Colgate) is engaged in the business of personal care and oral care. It offers various
personal care products such as soaps, cosmetics and toilet preparations. In the Personal Care segment, it offers
Palmolive's Foaming Hand Wash range in two variants. In the Oral Care segment, it offers toothpastes, toothbrushes,
toothpowder, whitening products and mouthwash. In the toothpaste category, it offers Colgate Total Charcoal Deep
Clean Toothpaste, Colgate Active Salt Neem Toothpaste and Colgate Sensitive Pro-Relief (CSPR) Enamel Repair
Toothpaste. In the toothbrush category, it offers the Colgate 360 degree Toothbrush range, which includes 360 degree
Charcoal Gold, 360 degree Whole Mouth Clean, 360 degree Visible White, 360 degree Floss-Tip and Colgate Zig-Zag
Black Toothbrush.
Colgates net sales declined 8.8% Y-o-Y [estimated (est.)
+7.5%] to Rs.865 crore due to a calculated volume decline of For the busy investor
12% (est. +2%). EBITDA fell 10.3% Y-o-Y (est. +3.9%) to
Rs.214 crore, mainly due to a decline in sales. PAT adjusted
Fresh One Up Trend Daily
for tax reversals last year dropped 14.2% Y-o-Y (est. +3.5% Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who
YoY). are keen to focus and gain from a single stock
every trading day.
Market share in the toothpaste category shrunk 30 bps Q-o-
Q to 55.4%, but rose 40 bps in the toothbrush category to With just one daily recommendation selected from
47% (a multi-decadal high). After a sharp dip in toothpaste stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the
market share in the March 2016 quarter, the decline was same day or carry over the trade if the target is not
restricted to 30 bps, providing some stability over the past met. Our review over the next 4 days will provide
three quarters. However, if we take Y-o-Y market share into new exit levels while the stock is still in an uptrend.
account, it indicates that toothpaste industry volumes are
This low risk, high return product is available for
also likely to have declined ~9% Y-o-Y. This is likely due to
online subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
the temporary liquidity crunch post demonetisation (despite
proactive measures taken by the Company) and the Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
categorys high rural sales proportion. The management, moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
however, expects a gradual pick-up as liquidity improves.
Gross margin continued to expand strongly to 63.5% (+70 bps Y-o-Y v/s est. +30 bps). Advertising & Promotion (A&P)
expenses declined 150 bps Y-o-Y to 9.6% after three quarters of high ad-spend. However, these gains were offset by a
sharp rise in other expenses (+210 bps) and staff costs (+60 bps). EBITDA margin contracted 50 bp Y-o-Y (est. -80bp) to
24.5%, mainly due to a decline in sales.
Valuation: In our view, Colgates oral care category has high growth potential. The Company has strong moats in the
form of distribution, category development, brand strength, R&D and concentrated focus on oral care, which has helped
it to consistently ward off competition. Its long-term earnings potential as well as its balance sheet is strong. Post results,
we recommend this stock with a price target of Rs.1025.
Technical Outlook: The Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd stock looks good on the daily chart for medium-term
investment. It has formed a downward channel pattern and above Rs.940, it will lead to a strong rally to Rs.1000. The
stock trades above all moving averages like the 200 DMA weekly. Start accumulating at this level Rs.901.10 and on dips
to Rs.866 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible price target of Rs.1025+ in the next 12 months.
******

A Time Communications Publication 11

Indian Bank
(BSE Code: 532814) (CMP: Rs.289.10) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.350+)
Indian Bank offers deposits, loans and services. Its segments include Treasury, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, Retail
Banking and Other Banking Operations. It offers products under various categories such as agriculture, corporates,
personal/individual, business, professional self-employed, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) cards, education,
Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), property and technology. Its deposits include savings bank (SB) accounts such as SB Vikas
Khata, SB Platinum, SB Power, SB Silver and SB Gold; current accounts, which include Premium Current Account and IB
i-Freedom Current
Account; term deposits,
which include fixed
deposit, re-investment
plan, insured recurring
deposit, variable
recurring deposit and
facility deposit; and NRI
accounts, which include
Non-Resident Ordinary
Account. It also offers
services such as premium
services, insurance
services and e-payment of
indirect taxes.
Indian Bank has
approximately 70
specialized branches
across the country. In
Q3FY17, its domestic
gross advances declined
0.1% Y-o-Y and 0.3% Q-o-
Q to Rs.1.26 lakh crore.
Consequently, the
domestic loan mix stood
at - Retail segment: 52.1%
(+8.2% Y-o-Y); Corporate
and Commercial segment:
47.9% (de-growth 7% Y-
o-Y). Its overseas business
contributes ~4% of the
total advances. The Bank
intends to primarily focus
on the SME and Retail
segment to push the loan
book growth. The
management has revised
its loan growth guidance
downwards to 2-3% in
FY17E from ~10%.
During the quarter, global
deposits grew 5.2% Y-o-Y
and 3.1% Q-o-Q to
Rs.1,83,600 crore driven
by growth in domestic
deposits (5.9% Y-o-Y and
3.4% Q-o-Q) to

A Time Communications Publication 12

Rs.1,78,200 crore. The growth was largely driven by an increase in CASA base (33.5% Y-o-Y, 19.3% Q-o-Q) due to the
impact of demonetisation taking the CASA ratio to 38.7% from 33.6% in Q2FY17. Despite the slowdown in the credit
growth, net interest income grew steadily by 12.2% Y-o-Y at Rs.1,250 crore on the back of margin expansion. NIM (net
interest margin) increased by 22 bps Y-o-Y to 2.52% on account of low cost of deposits. Cost of deposits declined by 77
bps Y-o-Y to 5.93% led by strong growth in the CASA base and gradual shedding of term deposits. Yield on advances
dropped relatively lesser by 32 bps Y-o-Y to 9.13%.
Asset quality deteriorated with GNPA (gross non-performing asset) rising by 41 bps Q-o-Q to 7.69% and NNPA (net non-
performing asset) rising by 14 bps Q-o-Q to 4.76%. Absolute GNPA rose by 5.3% Q-o-Q to Rs.9680 crore and NNPA rose
by 2.5% Q-o-Q to Rs.6000 crore. During the quarter, the slippages to GNPA remained at elevated levels at Rs.930 crore
v/s Rs.950 crore in Q2FY17. Stressed assets (Gross NPAs + Restructured Standard Advances) rose by 0.1% Q-o-Q to
Rs.15620 crore (12.41% of the total Gross Advances).
Operating profit grew 33.2% Y-o-Y to Rs.1020 crore on account of high other income (34.7% Y-o-Y) led by trading gains
and well contained operating expenses which grew only 4.5% Y-o-Y. PAT jumped by almost eight-fold to Rs.370 crore on
account of lower provisioning (-24.8% Y-o-Y).
The Bank has shown healthy operating performance. The rising trend in the CASA base supported by demonetisation
has helped its margin to expand.
Technical Outlook: The Indian Bank stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It is moving
in a strong uptrend and any correction should be used to accumulate the stock. The stock has broken out of the trading
range and trades above its 200 DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.289.10 and on dips to Rs.265 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.350+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan

L&T Infotech Ltd: Solution provider!

(BSE Code: 540005) (CMP: Rs.685.95) (FV: Re.1)
Incorporated in 1996, Mumbai-based L&T Infotech Ltd (LTIL), a subsidiary of Larsen & Toubro (L&T), is an IT solutions
and services company. It is the sixth largest IT Company in India in terms of export revenues and among the top 20 IT
service providers in the world. It offers an extensive range of IT services to diverse industries around the world. Its
services include application development, maintenance and outsourcing, enterprise solutions, infrastructure
management services, testing, digital solutions and platform-based solutions.
LTIL launched its IPO in July 2016 and raised Rs.1200 crore through an Offer for Sale (OFS). The Companys competitive
strengths include strong domain focus enabling Business-to-IT Connect, strong parentage and brand equity, established
long-term relationships with clients, extensive portfolio of IT services and solutions, increased focus on emerging
technologies, proven track record of established processes and executing large, end-to-end, mission critical projects and
strong management culture.
The IT outsourcing business is expected to face new challenges like wage hikes and curb in workers visas in USA
besides disruptions like IoT, Automation and Virtual Reality. Hence, consolidation may emerge resulting in the marriage
of smaller companies to gain size and scale to sustain the challenging environment. Private equity owned domestic IT
companies with similar business models like Mphasis Ltd (majority owned by Blackstone) and Hexaware Technologies
(Baring Asia owns 71% stake) may join with LTIL to take on biggies like TCS and Infosys. The stock has the potential to
appreciate 50% with limited downside within a year as LTIL is expected to achieve a turnover of Rs.7200 crore with PAT
of over Rs.950 crore.
*****

Kushal Tradelink Ltd: Discarded paper!

(BSE Code: 536170) (CMP: Rs.529.30) (FV: Rs.2)
Incorporated in 2000, Gujarat-based Kushal Tradelink Ltd (KTL) is a paper trading company and a leading wholesaler in
Ahmedabad. With a client base of over 600+ customers, it is among the major Paper and Paper products players in the
State. It operates as an intermediary in the paper products supply chain wherein it purchases materials such as kraft

A Time Communications Publication 13

paper, duplex boards etc. from individual paper mills and supplies them to customers in the packing segment post
customization.
KTL raised Rs.28 crore in 2013 through its IPO priced at Rs.35/share to purchase and set up a corporate house to meet
its long-term working capital requirement and for general corporate purposes. It is hard to digest that a mere trading
company, which raised Rs.28 crore three years back on the BSE-SME Exchange, now boasts of a market cap of over
Rs.6279.26 crore with a P/E of over 106.5x whereas stocks of well-established and consistent dividend-paying paper
manufacturing companies like Ruchira Papers and Balkrishna Paper Mills of the renowned Poddar group trade at 10.3x
and 5.8x respectively! We feel that operators are heavily involved in this counter and hence advise investors not to get
swayed by the bonus issue offered by the Company recently. Book profits and exit immediately.

SMART PICKS
Budget sets bullish trend for 2017
By Rohan Nalawade
In our previous article headlined Bulls in full control we had rightly advised to buy on dips strategy till 8740, which
was almost achieved last week and our stock recommendations like State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and Reliance
Industries performed well.
As per WD Gann price cycle theory, 6 February 2017 since 5 February is a Sunday, is an important Gann date. The
market is now set for a new high in 2017 and the Nifty may achieve 9300-9600 levels. With 8625 as a major support
level, Nifty may rise to 8800-8920 levels shortly. Bank Nifty is seen supporting the market for new highs and the mid-
caps, too, are warming up.
As far as the budget is concerned, we were positive on sectors like infrastructure, roads, railways, construction,
agriculture, banks, etc and were proven right as the budget presented on 1 February 2017, had various benefits for these
sectors. Further, tax benefits were announced for start-ups and individual tax rate was also reduced from 10% to 5% for
income between Rs.2.5-5 lakh. Overall, the budget was good and productive. Stocks related to banks, mines,
infrastructure and agro products will rise this year.
Among stocks,
Buy BSE Ltd, which got listed with good volumes at Rs.1089 last week, for good returns in the long-term.
Buy Mahindra Finance above Rs.290 for a price target of Rs.320.
Buy IFCI above Rs.30 for a price target of Rs.36-40.
Buy L&T Finance at Rs.101 for a price target of Rs.119-135.
Buy Ashok Leyland above Rs.92 for a price target of Rs.110.
Hold State Bank of India recommended earlier at Rs.250 for a price target of Rs.288.
Hold ICICI Bank recommended earlier at Rs.257 for a price target of Rs.310.
Hold Ambuja Cement recommended earlier at Rs.230 for a price target of Rs.250-265.

MARKET REVIEW
Sensex crosses 28K psychological mark
By Devendra A Singh
The BSE Sensex advanced 358.06 points to close at 28,240.52 and the NSE Nifty closed at 8,740.95 gaining 99.70 points
for the week ending Friday, 3 February 2017.
On the macro economic front, Indias Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surged to 50.4 in January 2017
from 49.6 in December 2016.
In Budget 2017-18, on Wednesday, 1 February 2017, FM Arun Jaitley proposed to phase out the Foreign Investment
Promotion Board (FIPB). Indias FDI policy is also likely to see further easing in FY18. A total liberalisation of the FDI
policy is on the anvil and the announcement will come in due course of time. The FM also unveiled a string of measures
for Ease of Doing Business and announced an allocation of Rs.396,135 crore for the infrastructure sector.

A Time Communications Publication 14

Jaitley disclosed fiscal deficit target for FY17 at 3.2% of GDP. FY17 budget deficit target was set at 3.5% of GDP. FY17
revenue deficit target was at 2% of GDP. FY18 divestment target was set at Rs.72,500 crore.
Moodys rating agency also expressed concern over the
budgeting of lesser capital Rs.10,000 crore for infusion into
public sector banks in 2017-18, which it said is a credit
negative. The government has budgeted for a lower fiscal
deficit at 3.2% of GDP next fiscal and 3% in 2018-19. Moodys
expects the government to achieve its targets based on
achievable budget assumptions as it demonstrated its
commitment to fiscal prudence. Please also note that spending
commitments are significant and structural hurdles to rapid
increases in revenue collection are apparent.
The government hopes to collect over Rs.19.06 lakh crore from
taxes next fiscal. Of this, Rs.9.80 lakh crore are estimated to
come from direct taxes and Rs.9.26 lakh crore from indirect
taxes.
In a report titled Budget continues gradual fiscal consolidation,
targeted public investment, Moodys said the budget provides
modest economic support to low-income households, benefits
the infrastructure sector with a boost in public spending and is
generally supportive for businesses with lower tax rates for
micro enterprises and MSMEs.
The merger of the previously separate Railway Budget and
Union Budget and removal of the designation of Plan and non-
Plan spending should improve Budget transparency and
support the effectiveness of spending and revenue planning,
moving forward, Moodys said.
The fiscal deficit target, it said, implies gradual medium-term
fiscal consolidation, driven largely by higher nominal GDP
growth and bolstered by improvements in revenue collection.
High and sustainable nominal GDP growth will depend on the recovery of the private investment cycle, which in turn
will be contingent on the successful implementation of current and future reforms, the agency added.
Uncertainty surrounding the final impact of demonetisation and the pending goods and services tax (GST) on state
revenues combined with increases in total expenditure for government employees, point to a risk of fiscal slippage,
Moodys said.
On the Rs.10,000 crore capital infusion plan in PSU banks, Moodys said at a time when capital level remains precarious
and market access to external capital difficult, this is a credit negative for public sector banks.
The Rs.25,000-crore allocation for fuel subsidies is sufficient based on current oil prices. This is credit positive for state-
owned oil and gas companies as it implies that the government will not ask them to share the burden. The authorities
are also mulling a merger of state-owned oil companies that would ultimately be an overall positive, it said.
The planned increase in public infrastructure spending is credit positive for companies in this sector. It could also help
address infrastructure constraints and support future private investments, it said.
Moreover, the Budget is positive overall for business. It has halved income tax rates for lower-income individuals and
lowered the tax rate for micro, and small- and medium-sized enterprises to 25% from 30%, Moodys said.
On the global front, UK manufacturing PMI was reported at 55.9 in January 2017 compared with 56.1 in December 2016.
Further, Eurozone manufacturing PMI was reported at 55.2 in January 2017 - the highest since 2011.
Chinas official manufacturing purchasing managers index dipped to 51.3 in January 2017 from 51.4 in the previous
month.

A Time Communications Publication 15

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its monetary
policy steady and maintained its What TF+ subscribers say:
optimistic price forecasts. The BOJ Think Investment Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS
maintained a pledge to guide short-term
interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
government bond yield to around 0%. column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
Key index ended lower on Monday, 30 Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
January 2017 on modest selling. The sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
Sensex was down 32.90 points (-0.12%) returns against their peers in the short-to-medium term.
to close at 27,849.56.
Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to our
Key index tumbled on Tuesday, 31
subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11 January
January 2017 on extended sell-off in
2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in 112
equities ahead of Budget. The Sensex
plunged 193.60 points (-0.70%) to close
stocks, 26 triggered the stop loss while 18 are still open. Of these 18,
at 27,655.96. 12 are in big green while 6 are in nominal red.
Key index advanced on Wednesday, 1 If you want to earn like this,
February 2017 on a positive Union subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today.
Budget 2017-2018. The Sensex surged
485.68 points (+1.76%) to close at For more details, contact Money Times on
28,141.64. 022-22616970/4805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Key index was up on Thursday, 2 Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
February 2017. The Sensex gains 84.97 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
points (+0.30%) to close at 28,226.61.
Key index settled higher on Friday, 3 February 2017. The Sensex was up 13.91 points (+0.05%) to close at 28,240.52.
For future events, national & global macro-economic figures will surely dictate global market movements and influence
investors sentiment in the near future.
The Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI) sixth bi-monthly monetary policy meet is scheduled on 8 February 2017.
Further, the Election Commissions (EC) released poll schedule. Elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and
Manipur are to be held between 4 February and 8 March 2017, with the counting of votes scheduled for 11 March 2017.
On the inflation data, the government is scheduled to release data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for January
2017 and the combined consumer price indices (CPI) for urban and rural India for January 2017 by mid- February 2017.
On Asian front, Chinas other macro-economic figures for January 2017 are scheduled to be revealed in the coming week
of February 2017.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd: For sure shot gains

(BSE Code: 500110) (CMP: Rs.338.65) (FV: Rs.10)
This stock was recommended earlier at Rs.198.45 on 4 July 2016 and again at Rs.258.55 on 28 November 2016. We
recommend this stock once again on account of its improving fundamentals.
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL) is a subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) with IOC holding 51.89%
stake. It is the largest refinery in South India with a total installed capacity of 11.5 MMTPA. It has two refineries in Tamil
Nadu a 10.5 MMTPA Manali Refinery in Chennai and 1 MMTPA Cauvery Basin Refinery near Nagapattinam.
CPCLs products include LPG, Motor Spirit (MS 150 ppm sulphurnonmetro), Motor Spirit (MS 50 ppm sulphurmetro),
Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO), High Speed Diesel (HSD 350 ppm sulphurnonmetro), High Speed Diesel (HSD 150 ppm
sulphur, metro), Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), Furnace Oil, LSHS and Light Diesel Oil (LDO). Its speciality products
include Naphtha (nonfertiliser), Bitumen VG 10, Bitumen VG 30, Extractslight, Extractsheavy, LVI Spindle, Lube base
oil SN 400, Lube base oil SN 150, Lube base oil SN 850, Lube base oil SN 500. CPCL products are used by many industries
like fertilizer, power, and petrochemicals besides catering to oil marketing companies (OMCs), roadways, railways and
airlines requirement for transportation of fuel and cooking fuel.

A Time Communications Publication 16

Its Wax plant has an installed capacity of 30,000 TPA, which is designed to produce paraffin wax for the manufacture of
candle wax, waterproof formulations and match wax. A Propylene plant was commissioned in 1988 with an initial
capacity of 17,000 TPA to supply petrochemical feedstock to neighbouring downstream industries. In 2004, the unit was
revamped to enhance the propylene production capacity to 30,000 TPA. The Company also supplies LABFS to a
downstream unit to manufacture Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB).
For FY16, CPCL posted consolidated net profit of Rs.790 crore as against a net loss of Rs.33 crore in FY15 on 38% lower
sales of Rs.26284 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.50.3 and a dividend of 40% was paid. In Q3FY17, its standalone net profit
skyrocketed 757% to Rs.291 crore on 43% higher sales of Rs.7267 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.19.6 as against Re.0.9 in
Q3FY16. During 9MFY17, its standalone net profit soared 70% to Rs.859 crore on 4% higher sales of Rs.20864 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.57.7.
CPCL posted GRM of $5.27/bbl in FY16 as against $1.97 in FY15 and $5.81/bbl in 9MFY17 as against $5.36 in 9MFY16.
FY16 crude throughput was 9.644 MMTPA as against 10.624 MMTPA in FY15. During the year, it incurred capex of
Rs.1272 crore the highest in the last decade.
With an equity capital of Rs.149 crore and reserves of Rs.2254 crore, its share book value works out to Rs.161 as at 31
March 2016. The value of its gross block including capital WIP of Rs.1652 crore is Rs.10142 crore. With debts of Rs.3560
crore and cash and loans given etc. of Rs.438 crore, its net DER works out to 1.1:1 due to the ongoing capex.
Naftiran Intertrade, a Swiss subsidiary of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), holds 15.4% in its equity capital. NIOC is
a key contractor to Iran's Energy Sector. IOC holds 51.9% stake
in CPCLs equity, FIIs hold 11.4%, DIs hold 10% and PCBs hold Seminars on Financial Literacy
1.9%, which leaves 9.4% stake with the investing public.
Stock Market
CPCLs Rs.3110 crore residue upgradation project will be Place Date Time Venue
mechanically completed by FY17 and will enhance distillate
Kalyan, 18/02/17 5.30 p.m. Venue to be finalized
yield by 6-7%. This project will boost CPCLs GRM of $1.5 to
Mumbai
$2/bbl. Its mounded bullet storage projects of Rs.280 crore will
Chandrashekhar Thakur: CDSL BO Protection Fund.
also be completed by March 2017. The Company has also
Tel: 9820389051; csthakur@cdslindia.com;
decided to replace its 30inch old crude oil pipeline between th
BSE Building, 16 Floor, Dalal Street, Fort,
Chennai port and its Manali refinery. To boost operations, it is
Mumbai - 400001
setting up a new 42inch crude oil pipeline that will be bigger,
better and safer with thickness of 12.5 mm. This project of Rs.257 crore is likely to be completed by March 2017.
These projects will be completed over the next few years and add to CPCLs distillate yield and reduce its demurrage
cost resulting in higher margins. The Company is also preparing a feasibility report for a proposed 9 MMTPA brownfield
refinery at an undisclosed sum.
To comply with the central governments B5-IV quality fuel policy, CPCL will commission a new 1.8 MMTPA Diesel Hyro
De-Sulphurisation (DHDS) plant by March 2017. This will enable the Company to produce diesel with less than 10 ppm
(parts per million) of sulphur, which would be a cleaner fuel. This plant is likely to be commissioned by September 2019.
CPCL has stated that the Nelson complexity index of its Manali refinery would rise from 7.98 to 9.24 on setting up this
project, which will be one of the highest amongst Indian refineries and will enable it to earn a higher GRM.
CPCLs improvement in complexity and better GRM would lead to higher profitability. On completing the projects,
operational efficiencies will kick in that will boost refining margins to over $6/bbl in FY17 and further to $6.5-6.8/bbl in
FY18. Moreover, with the rising profitability on its small equity capital, the Company may surprise shareholders with a
liberal bonus in its current Golden Jubilee year.
CPCL is likely to post an EPS of Rs.80 in FY17. At the CMP of Rs.338.65, the stock trades at a forward P/E of just 4.2x. A
reasonable P/E of 6.5x will take its share price to Rs.520 thereby fetching 53.5% returns in the medium-term. The
stocks 52-week high/low is Rs.360/138.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Acknit Industries Ltd Nahar Poly Films recommended on 26-12-16
(BSE Code: 530043) (CMP: Rs.120.80) (FV: Rs.10) at Rs.59 shot up to Rs.66.40 and in same
Incorporated in 1990, Acknit Industries Ltd (Acknit) (formerly Known as issue Aro Granite Industries recommended at
Acknit Knitting Ltd) is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of Rs.68 shot up to Rs.78.70 during the week.

A Time Communications Publication 17

industrial gloves and garments. The Company is ISO 9001:2008 certified and operates three manufacturing divisions
near Kolkata
(i) Seamless Gloves Acknit manufactures seamless gloves made of 100% Cotton, Poly/Cotton, Nylon, Kevlar, HPPE and
other special cut resistant blended yarns etc, for cut lever 1 to 5. It has 3 coating facilities that produce PU Coating,
Nitrile Coating and Latex Coated Gloves.
(ii) Industrial Leather Products Acknit owns a fully integrated set up backed by its own tanning facilities for
manufacturing leather gloves as well as special types of leather gloves of Kevlar / HPPE / Glass Yarns with leather
stitched on the palm and at the back of the finger tips. It has become one of the fastest growing and leading exporters
from India within a short span of time.
(iii) Industrial Garments Acknit manufactures various Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
types of industrial garments made of Cotton, Particulars Q2FY17 Q2FY16 H1FY17 H1FY16 FY16
Poly/Cotton, high visibility fabric with 3m reflective Sales 10.47 8.73 20.49 16.3 33.45
tape, heat resistant, Nomex and T-Shirts of all types. All PBT 1.1 0.56 2.01 0.89 2.37
its units are of international standards with
Tax 0.4 0.19 0.7 0.27 0.92
sophisticated machinery and state-of-the-art facilities
PAT 0.7 0.37 1.31 0.62 1.45
that have adequate production capacity to meet the
growing market demands. Its products are EPS (in Rs.) 1.31 0.69 2.44 1.15 2.7
manufactured as per CE norms and are well approved by overseas customers. Acknit is a recognized export house and
over 90% of its production is exported to European countries regularly.
With an equity capital of Rs.2.76 crore and reserves of around Rs.26.92 crore, its share book value works out to
Rs.117.76 and its price:book value ratio stands at just 1x, which is quite attractive. The promoters hold 46.39% of the
equity capital, which leaves 53.61% stake with the investing public.
During Q2FY17, Acknit posted lower sales of Rs.39.91 crore with PAT of Rs.0.94 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.71. During
H1FY17, its net profit declined to Rs.1.3 crore from Rs.1.35 crore in H1FY16 on higher sales of Rs.75.04 crore fetching an
EPS of Rs.5.17. It paid a dividend of 15% for FY16.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 10.2x. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.98. On the upper side, it
could zoom to Rs.150-155 in the medium-term.
*******

Rapicut Carbides Ltd

(BSE Code: 500360) (CMP: Rs.75.90) (FV: Rs.10)
This stock was recommended earlier at Rs.65 on 5 December 2016. We recommend it once again as we are still bullish on
the stock.
Incorporated in 1977, Ankleshwar-based Rapicut Carbides Ltd (RCL) manufactures and sells tungsten and tungsten
carbide (TC) products. It manufactures a wide range of TC products viz. Tungsten Carbide Tips, Tungsten Carbide
Inserts, Wire Drawing Nibs, Bar and Tube drawing Pellets, Tungsten Carbide Rings, Flats, Bushes, Jute Eyelets, Solid
Carbide Cutters and a wide range of Tool Room products. Its marquee clients include Lupin, Greaves Cotton, Godrej
Industries, Tata Steel, SAIL, Electro Steel Castings, Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
Bharat Heavy Electricals, NLC India etc. Particulars Q2FY17 Q2FY16 6MFY17 6MFY16 FY16
RCL is diversifying its product-mix by adding other Sales 39.91 42.44 75.04 74.91 160.77
powder metallurgical products like indexable PBT 1.43 1.52 2.07 2.02 4.9
inserts and more value added products. It plans to Tax 0.5 0.51 0.77 0.67 1.87
manufacture extrusion rods, coupling sleeves, PAT 0.94 1.02 1.3 1.35 3.03
adaptors and cross bits that are used mainly in EPS (in Rs.) 3.71 4.03 5.17 5.37 12.02
underground tunneling work. It also plans to
manufacture cold heading dies for the ball bearing and fastener industry.
RCL has an equity capital of Rs.5.37 crore supported by reserves of Rs.14.06 crore. The promoters hold 36.93% of the
equity capital, which leaves 63.07% stake with the investing public.
During Q2FY17, its PAT soared 89% to Rs.0.7 crore on higher sales of Rs.10.47 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.31. During
H1FY17, its PAT zoomed 111% to Rs.1.31 crore from Rs.0.62 crore in H1FY16 on 26% higher sales of Rs.20.49 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.2.44. RCL is a regular dividend-paying company and it paid 12% dividend for FY16.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 19.1x.

A Time Communications Publication 18

We expect the Company to post strong operational numbers for Q3FY17. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of
Rs.60. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.105-110 in the medium-term and further to Rs.140+ in the long-term.

Editorial & Business Office:

Goa Mansion (Gr. Floor), 58 Dr. S.B. Path (Goa St.), Near GPO, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Phone: 022-2265 4805, 2261 6970.
Editor & Publisher: R.N. GUPTA
Asst. Editor & Associate Publisher: NEHAR SAKARIA
CHENNAI: T.A.S. Venkatasubba Rao (Phone: 044-24917241, Mobile: 9444024664)
JAIPUR: Satram Das (Phone: 0141-2636341)
BANGALORE: V. Raghurama Reddy (Mobile: 9591763126 / 9379559166)
DELHI: P. K. Vasudevan (Mobile: 9810513247)
All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be copied or reproduced without the written permission of the publisher. Any
infringement of this condition will be liable to prosecution.
Printed & Published by R.N. Gupta for the proprietors Time Communications (India) Ltd. and printed by him at Inquilab Offset Printers Ltd. 156,
DJ Dadajee Road, Tardeo, Mumbai - 400072. Registration No.: 63312/91, Post Regn. No. MCS/006/2015-17

Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.

A Time Communications Publication 19

 Subscription Form
Please fill in the subscription coupon in CAPITAL LETTERS only and send it to:
The Subscription Manager
Time Communications (India) Ltd.
Goa Mansion (Gr. Flr.), 58, Dr. S.B. Path (Goa St.), Near G.P.O., Fort, Mumbai 400 001.
Tel. Nos.: 022-22654805, 22616970, Email: moneytimes.support@gmail.com, Website: www.moneytimes.in
I wish to subscribe to:
FUNDAMENTAL PRODUCTS TECHNICAL PRODUCTS
MEDIUM-TO-LONG-TERM: PRE-MARKET DAILY:
Money Times (Post/Courier/Online) Nifty & Bank Nifty 1 mnth = Rs.3500, 1 yr = Rs.30000
1 yr = Rs.900, 2 yrs = Rs.1700, Nifty Options 1 mnth = Rs.1500, 1 yr = Rs.12000
3 yrs = Rs.2400 LIVE MARKET DAILY:
Early Bird Gains (Courier/Online) Nifty, Bank Nifty & Live Market Calls (Cash & Futures)
6 mnths = Rs.4000, 1 yr = Rs.7000, 1 mnth = Rs.4000, 1 yr = Rs.36000
2 yrs = Rs.12000, 3 yrs = Rs.15000 FRESH ONE UP TREND DATA
Panchratna (Courier/Online) Fresh One Up Trend Daily
1 qtr = Rs.2500, 2 qtrs = Rs.4000, 1 mnth = Rs.2500, 1 yr = Rs.25000
1 yr = Rs.7000 Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
Mid-Cap Twins (Courier/Online) 1 mnth = Rs.2000, 1 yr = Rs.18000
1 Mnth = Rs.2000, 6 Mnths = Rs.11000 Fresh One Up Trend (Mnthly/Qtrly/Yrly) 1 yr= Rs.17000
1 yr = Rs.20000 Fresh One Up Trend /Down Trend Futures Daily
Beat the Street 6 (Courier/Online) 1 mnth = Rs.4000, 1 yr = Rs.36000
1 qtr = Rs.2000, 2 qtrs = Rs.3500, PROFITRAK TRENDS
3 qtrs = Rs.5000, 1 yr = Rs.6500 Profitrak Daily
SHORT-TERM (1 wk 3 mnths): 1 mnth = Rs.2500, 3 mnths = Rs.7000
Techno Funda Plus (Courier/Online) 6 mnths = Rs.13000, 1 yr = Rs.20000
1 mnth = Rs.2500, 3 mnths = Rs.6000, Profitrak Weekly 1 mnth = Rs.1500, 1 yr = Rs.12000
6 mnths = Rs.11000, 1 yr = Rs.18000 Profitrak Short-Term Gains 1 yr = Rs.8000
INVESTMENT RELATED: Profitrak Medium-Term Gains 1 yr = Rs.8000
Portfolio Advisory Service (One-to-One/Email) Profitrak Winners Long-Term Gains 1 yr = Rs.6000
Up to 15 stocks = Rs.1500 POWER OF RS 1 yr = Rs.3100
(Above 15 stocks, Rs.100 per additional stock)
(For courier delivery, add Rs.40 per issue or Rs.2080 p.a. to the subscription amount as courier charges)

a) I am enclosing Demand Draft/Cheque No. ________________ payable at par in Mumbai favouring

Time Communications (India) Ltd. dated _____________ on _____________________________ at Branch
______________________________________ for Rs. _____________.
b) I have deposited Cash or electronically transferred Rs._____________ via RTGS/NEFT to:
Time Communications (India) Ltd. State Bank of India C/A 10043795661, Fort Market Branch, Fort, Mumbai -
400 001 (IFSC: SBIN0005347) or
Time Communications India Limited ICICI Bank C/A 623505381145, Fort Branch, Mumbai - 400 001
(IFSC: ICIC0006235) and have advised you about Transfer No. _______________________ by e-mail / phone.
c) I am aware that investment in equities is risky and stock performance is unpredictable and can result in losses
in spite of all analysis and projections.
Name:
Address:

City: Pin:

Tel No Mob
Email:
Are you a Investor, Trader, Broker/Sub-Broker, Investment Advisor, Banker

Date & Place: ___________________________________ Signature: ______________________

A Time Communications Publication 20