Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2015-2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
BUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM
FORWARD LOOKING
STATEMENTS
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated
limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic
our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated
anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, with the financial condition of the airline industry and rail industry, political instability
prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and and force majeure), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products
services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity and services; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution; doing
or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses;
orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers
our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory and suppliers; human resources), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and
environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking access to capital markets, retirement benefit plan risk, exposure to credit risk, certain
statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain
such as may, will, expect, intend, anticipate, plan, foresee, believe, customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related
continue, maintain or align, the negative of these terms, variations of them or to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values
similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties
assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, section in Other in the MD&A the Corporations financial report for the fiscal year ended
which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may
results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance
on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statement
additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are
statements made in this presentation refer to the respective Guidance and forward- subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities
looking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or
Transportation sections in the Managements Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) in the revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future
Corporations financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014. events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are
expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Global 5000, Global 6000, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 40, Learjet 45, Learjet
70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Challenger 350, Challenger 650, Bombardier, Bombardier Business Aircraft, Bombardier Vision and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or
Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
INTRODUCTION
Bombardier Business Aircraft is pleased to present its 2015 Chinas growth decelerated while Russia ended the year on
edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast, debuting at the brink of recession due to falling oil prices and significant
the European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition economic restrictions imposed by the western world.
in Geneva. The forecast provides an in-depth look at how
six primary market drivers (wealth creation, globalization of Last year the industry reached 601 aircraft deliveries,
trade, emerging markets, new aircraft programs, replacement a 6% increase from 2013. Demand for long range business
demand and accessibility) will shape the future of business travel continued to grow, though at a slower pace, which
aviation over the next 10 years. resulted in a total of 200 deliveries for Large category
aircraft. Medium category aircraft had 212 total deliveries,
This analysis focuses specifically on aircraft categories in a modest recovery expected to accelerate as world GDP
which Bombardier competes: Light, Medium and Large, as growth improves in upcoming years. Light category deliveries
well as major world regions. amounted to 189 aircraft, less than half the level of deliveries
seen when the market peaked in 2008.
2014 ACHIEVEMENTS
204 13%
DELIVERIES INCREASE
34% 10
DELIVERY CONSECUTIVE
TH
VERSUS 2013 MARKET SHARE YEAR AS A LEADER1
PROGRAM MILESTONES
600
AND COUNTING
500
AND COUNTING
600
AND COUNTING
1
Delivery unit leader in those segments where Bombardier competes. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 6
BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
MARKET DRIVERS
Drivers have a positive relationship
with the business aircraft market
Expansion of economic Expansion of trade from Growth of the worlds Introduction of new Demand generated Alternatives to full
activity in the world, interregional partners developing markets and and technologically from the retirement business jet ownership
measured by Gross to a globally connected the convergence advanced aircraft of aircraft
Domestic Product economy of business jet adoption models into the
towards mature market industry
levels
The evolution of these drivers will shape the outlook of the industry
WORLD
ECONOMY 18.5 27.3 37.4 49.3 65.2 72.3
($ trillion)
Growth in the business jet fleet has followed growth of the world economy
5
15
5%
15
3%
EMERGING AVERAGE
WORLD GDP
ECONOMIES GDP
GROWTH
2%
.3
3%
72
GDP
GROWTH
AVERAGE
2014 WORLD GDP
MATURE ECONOMIES
2%
.3
trillion)
72
GDP
GROWTH
2014
MATURE ECONOMIES
($ trillion)
In production: 34
DRIVERS
stimulates demand and replacement purchase decisions
*
Learjet 85 program on pause
2,050
REPLACEMENT DEMAND ACCESSIBILITY
2,050
Full ownership
Full ownership
mulative
Cumulative Branded Fractional
siness jet business jet charter
Branded Fractional
ownership
charter ownership
tirements 699
retirements 699
The outlook for the long-term drivers of business jet demand remains strong
10
TOTAL
YEARS
$137B
51%
3,400 $91B 3,100
38%
34% 34% 2,500
28%
$39B
15%
FORECAST
BY $267 9,000
AIRCRAFT Billion Deliveries
SIZE
CATEGORY
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 13
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Light category
3,400
TYPICAL
PURCHASE PRICE
- - 11,085
$9-20 M 3,100 + 1,085
8,770
- 7,755
1
Cabin volume of 8.5 m3 to 19.8 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 14
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Medium category
-
TYPICAL 3,100
PURCHASE PRICE
- - 7,755
$20-42 M 3,100
+ 690
- 7,755
5,345
CABIN VOLUME1 + 690
1
Cabin volume of 19.8 m3 to 42.5 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 15
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Large category
TYPICAL
PURCHASE PRICE
-
$50-72 M 2,500 4,070
3,100
- - 7,755
50
+ +
690
CABIN VOLUME1
=
CAGR
5,345
>1,500 ft 3
1,620 9.6%
CAGR =
3.8%
RANGE
>5,000 NM
2014 Fleet Deliveries + Retirements - 2024 Fleet =
2014 Fleet Deliveries + Retirements - 2024 Fleet =
1
Cabin volume > 42.5 m3 BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 16
FORECAST
BY REGION
NORTH AMERICA
TOTAL 2015-2024:
9,000
DELIVERIES 3,900 EUROPE
1,525 GREATER
CIS CHINA
510
875
North America, Europe, China and Latin America will be the largest markets
for business aircraft over the next 10 years
FORECAST BY REGION
$23.3
NORTH AMERICA $18.1
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
$23.3
KEY FACTS $18.1
$23.3aviation
Birthplace of business
$18.1
Largest market for business aircraft
2014 2024 2014 2024
2015-2024
2014
OUTLOOK
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
Average economic growth
of 2.6% per year FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
Fleet compound
CAGR annual LIGHT
growth rate of 2% LIGHT
2% MEDIUM LARGE
2%
Will remain the largest market
for business aircraft 12,715 2,060
12,715 2,060
Forecasted
10,090 to receive 3,900 deliveries 10,090 53%
53%
valued at $96 billion $39B $
$33B 41%
Light and Medium category aircraft $24B
34% 1,140 $24B
account for over 80% of deliveries 25%
29%
700 25%
18%
2014 2024
2014 2024
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
1,525 CAGR
$50 1.8% 7%
$22.3
KEY FACTS $18.6
Second largest$22.3
market
for$18.6
business jet deliveries
2014 2024 2014 2024
2015-2024 OUTLOOK $ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
2014 2024
Average economic growth
of 1.8% per year FORECAST BY CATEGORY
Fleet compound annual CAGR
CAGR LIGHT
growth rate of 7% LIGHT
7% MEDIUM LARGE
Will remain 7the
%
second largest market
for business jet deliveries $31B
2,850
2,850
Forecasted to receive 1,525 deliveries 62%
1,435
1,435
valued at $50 billion
500 560 500
Medium and Large category aircraft 33% $14B 465 37% 33% $
account for almost 70% of deliveries 28% 30%
$5B $5B
10% 10%
2014 2024
2014 2024
For the purposes of this forecast, Europe includes the EU27 plus
Albania, Andorra, Bosnia, Croatia, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, and Switzerland.
European fleet and deliveries are adjusted to exclude deliveries to
CIS-based owners that register their aircraft in Europe. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 19
6.5%
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
875 CAGR
$33 6.5% 13%
$16.7
KEY FACTS $8.9
Exceedingly fast$16.7
fleet growth over
the$8.9
last 10 years at more than 20%
per year 2014 2024 2014 2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
2015-2024
2014 OUTLOOK
2024
90 90
$1B 10% $1B 10%
3%
2014 2024 3%
2014 2024
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
850 CAGR
$24 3.3% 3%
$7.9
KEY FACTS $5.7
$7.9
Relatively mature market
for$5.7
business aviation
Brazil and Mexico account 2014 2024 2014 2024
for 60%
2014 of the regional
2024 fleet $ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
510 CAGR
$16 2.4% 6%
$2.8
KEY FACTS $2.2
$2.8
Business aviation in CIS began
$2.2
in the early 1990s
Fleet has grown by nearly 7% 2014 2024 2014 2024
per year
2014 since the early 1990s
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
400 CAGR
$15 4% 7%
$4.9
KEY FACTS $3.3
$4.9market
Remains a promising
for$3.3
business aviation
Long distances between cities and 2014 2024 2014 2024
difficult
2014 ground transportation
2024 justify $ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
the need for business aviation
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
2015-2024 OUTLOOK CAGR
CAGR LIGHT
Average economic growth LIGHT
7% MEDIUM LARGE
of 4.0% per7year
%
For the purposes of this forecast, the Middle East region also
includes Turkey. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024 23
2.5%
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
355 CAGR
$14 2.5% 6%
$13.8
KEY FACTS $10.8
$13.8
Geographic position necessitates
$10.8
the need for long range aircraft
2014 2024 2014 2024
2015-2024 OUTLOOK $ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
2014 2024
Average economic growth
of 2.5% per year FORECAST BY CATEGORY
Fleet compound annual CAGR
CAGR LIGHT
growth rate of 6% LIGHT
6% MEDIUM LARGE
Forecasted 6to
%
receive 355 deliveries $11B
valued at $14 billion 79%
720 205
720account
Large category aircraft
405
405 58%
for close to 60% of deliveries
80 70 80
22% $2B 20% 22%
$1B 14% $1B
7% 7%
2014 2024
2014 2024
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
310 CAGR
$12 7% 12%
$5.1
KEY FACTS $2.6
$5.1 its regional
Continues to develop
$2.6aviation market
business
Infrastructure and regulatory 2014 2024 2014 2024
environment
2014 continue
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
to slowly improve
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
2015-2024 OUTLOOK CAGR
CAGR LIGHT
Average economic growth LIGHT
12% MEDIUM LARGE
of 7% per year
12% $9B
Fleet compound annual growth 75%
455
rate of 12% 455 160
150
150 52%
Forecasted to receive 310 deliveries
valued at $12 billion
Large category aircraft account 70 80 70
for over 50% of deliveries
23% $2B 25% 23%
$1B 17%
$1B
8% 8%
2014 2024
2014 2024
2014 2024
CAGR CAGR
275 CAGR
$7 4.8% 5%
$3.5
KEY FACTS $2.2
$3.5
Important market for business aircraft
$2.2
deliveries
Fleet size has more than doubled 2014 2024 2014 2024
in the past 10 years
2014 2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010) Units
RESOURCES
Ascend
Asian Sky Group
B&CA Business & Commercial
Aviation Magazine
GAMA General Aviation
Manufacturers Association
IBAC International Business
Aviation Council
IHS Global Insight World Economic
Outlook, January 2015
JETNET
NEXA Advisors
27