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CLIMATESCIENCE

AsTemperaturesRise,EmpiresFall:Heat
andHumanBehavior
Peoplereallydobehaveworseinhotweatherandwholenationsdotoo
ByVeroniqueGreenwood Aug.02,2013

Thesummermonths,whentemperaturessoarand Thesun
pedestriansflocktotheshadysideofthestreet,
NASA/GettyImages
whenevenbreathingseemstoleaveyousticky,is
whenviolentcrimespeak.Itsawellknownpattern,
andpsychologistshavepublishedvastraftsofpapersinvestigatingwhether
theheat,ratherthananyotherfactor,likedaylength,orthekidsbeingout
ofschool,mightberesponsible.Thoughaclearcausaleffectremainselusive,theresearchhasfoundthatheat
doesappeartoboostaggression,asanyonewhosstoodinaswelteringsubwaystationwithabunchofsurly
lookingfellowcommuterscanattest.

Thelinkbetweenenvironmentandhumanbehaviorcanbewritmuchlargertoo.Fordecades,archaeologists
andhistorianshaveuncoveredevidencethatextremeweathereventsthatcausecropfailurescanleadtounrest,
uprisings,anddownfallsfromBabylontodynasticChinatomoderndayAfricausuallyinconcertwithother
factors.Andinrecentyears,thanksperhapstotheloomingspecterofclimatechange,researchintothe
connectionbetweenclimatefluctuationandconflicthassnowballed,withpapersoftenlookingatoneparticular
geographicarea,oroneparticularweatherevent.

Thatworkhasbeenbothilluminatingandincomplete.Canyoureallycomparetheeffectsofadroughtin
EthiopiatoafloodinBangladeshtoahurricaneinNewOrleanswiththeirradicallydifferentcultures,
populationsandeconomiesmuchlessmakeanyconnectiontothepersontopersonlevelofthepsychology
literatureabouthowwebehavewhenwerehot?Whatwouldbehelpfulwouldbeasortofgrandunifiedtheory
ofenvironmentandbehavior,somethingthatholdstrueacrosseverylocation,scale,andtime,withtheonly
constantbeingus.Now,agroupofresearchersattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,mayhavedeveloped
one.Afterreanalyzingdatafrom60existingstudiesusinganewstatisticalmethod,theyreportedinthisweeks
Sciencethattheyhavefoundaconsistentstatisticalyardstick,awaytolinkaparticulardegreeoffluctuation
fromaveragetemperatureorrainfalltoaparticularpercentagepointchangeinhumanconflictatthesubway
levelandthenationalorevenregionallevel.

(MORE:InfectiousDiseasesCouldBecomeMoreCommoninaWarmerWorld)

Thebodyofknowledgeonhumanaggressionbroughttogetherundertheumbrellaofthisstudyisimmense,and
variedthestudieshailfromdisciplinesasdiverseasarchaeology,psychology,andeconomics,andeachhasits
ownmeasuresofeverythingfromstreetviolencetoseverityofcivilwar.SowhenSolomonHsiang,aprofessor
ofpublicpolicy,MarshallBurke,agraduatestudentofagricultureandresourceeconomics,andEdwardMiguel,
aprofessorofeconomics,firstbegantoconsiderthepossibilityoflookingforageneraltrend18monthsago,
theyknewthatwhatevermethodtheyusedtoreanalyzethedatawouldhavetomakesuchthings
comparable.Thatwasourmaingoal,Burkesays.Canwebringtogetherresultsfromallthesedifferent
disciplinesthathadnotbeenaggregatedbeforeandputthemonacommonfooting?
http://science.time.com/2013/08/02/astemperaturesriseempiresfallheatandhumanbehavior/print/ 1/3
3/15/2017 AsTemperaturesRise,EmpiresFall:HeatandHumanBehavior|TIME.com
disciplinesthathadnotbeenaggregatedbeforeandputthemonacommonfooting?

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Thetaskwasnoteasy,alittlelikecollectingseveraldozenpoliticalsciencepapersthatlookathowdifferent
governmentsindifferentcountrieswereturnedoutofofficebycoup,collapseorelectionandtryingto
understandthemallwithanewandcommondenominator.Weessentiallyhadtoredolike20studies,Hsiang
says.DatasuggestingthatChinesedynastiesfellduringdroughtintothehoppertoberecalculated.Dataon
whetheraggressioninbaseballislinkedtotemperature,analysesofthousandsofyearsofclimaterecords
correlatedwithconflictditto.Overall,theyreanalyzed45datasetsusedacross60studies,workbymorethan
190scientists.

Whattheysawwasthatforeachstandarddeviationtowardswarmertemperaturesormoreorlessrainfall,
conflictroseapredictableamount.Forclashesbetweenindividualsorsmallgroupsthingslikeviolentcrimeor
gangwarstheincreasewasabout4%forlargeconflicts,thenumberwas14%.Whethersimilarmechanisms
wereatworkinallofthesecircumstanceswasnotclearfromthenewstudyandwasnotevenspecifically
addressedthescalesatwhichtheconflictsplayoutaresimplytoodifferenttosuggestanythingdefinitive.Butin
somecases,theymaybeginfromasimilarpointsource.Hsiangcitesalaboratorystudyfindingthatinahot
simulatorroom,policemenaremorelikelytofiretheirgunswhenassaulted.

(MORE:AntarcticaMeltedinthePastandItsPoisedtoMeltAgain)

Youcanimagine,alotoflargerscaleconflictsemergebecausetheressomekindofdisputeandthestatehas
policeofficerstryingtomaintainordernearariotoraprotest,andthenthingsescalatebecausesomeonemakes
averysmallmistakeandfiresagun,hesays.Sotheenvironmentmightbeaffectinghowsmallscaleconflicts
escalateintolargerconflicts.

Noteveryoneagreeswiththeteamsconclusions.HalvardBuhaug,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatthe
NorwegianUniversityofScienceandTechnology,applaudsthestudysgoalofunitingtheliterature,butsays
thathebelievesthattheresmoretobelearnedfrompayingattentiontothelargescaledirectionofclimate
changethantostandarddeviations.Healsonotesthatevenwiththeolddatanewlyreanalyzed,athirdofthe
studiesinvolvingcivilwardontsupporttheideathatclimatewasinvolved.Ithinktheyconcludeagainsttheir
ownevidencewhentheylookatcivilconflictandclimate,hesays.

(MORE:ASmallerThanPredictedDeadZoneisStillToxicFortheGulf)

ThepapersauthorsandBuhaugdoagreethatthenextimportantstepistolookmorecloselyatthemechanisms
atworkateachoftheselevels.Weneedtofocusonsomeofthosepotentiallyimportantintermediatefactors.
Itcouldbegrowthintheagriculturalsector,orcropsyields,Buhaugsays.Weneedtofocusmoreonhow
climatefluctuationsimpacteconomicgrowth,whichcouldbeanotherintermediatefactor.Andthentheresthe
blackboxthatwehaventreallymanagedtodomuchwith:howmigrationmightworkasanintermediatefactor.

Goingforward,theauthorshopethatotherresearcherswillstartincludinginformationaboutstandard
deviationandpercentchangemoreregularlyintheiranalysesofclimateandconflict,sothemagnitudeoftheir
resultscanbecomparedwiththoseinotherstudies.Therestofus,swelteringthroughlatesummer,will
continuetolookaheadtoourwarmingfuture,hopingthatweandthepeopleandnationsarounduscankeep
ourcool.

(MOREONTHISSTUDY:HotterWorldMeansHotterTemperatures)
http://science.time.com/2013/08/02/astemperaturesriseempiresfallheatandhumanbehavior/print/ 2/3
3/15/2017 AsTemperaturesRise,EmpiresFall:HeatandHumanBehavior|TIME.com

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http://science.time.com/2013/08/02/astemperaturesriseempiresfallheatandhumanbehavior/print/ 3/3