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Author(s): William R. Kinney, Jr.
Source: The Accounting Review, Vol. 61, No. 2 (Apr., 1986), pp. 338-350
Published by: American Accounting Association
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EDUCATION RESEARCH
Frank H. Selto, Editor
The generic approach focuses attention for things make a difference?"' Clearly,
on the essence of scientific inquiry in ac- the accounting for items affecting tax pay-
counting. Many of the problems faced by ments makes a difference in our individ-
accounting experimenters who can man- ual and collective lives. But does the ac-
ipulate some (but not all) of the levels of counting for, say, depreciation in internal
variables to be studied are similar to those or external reports affect decisions within
faced by "passive observers" of the levels a business firm or affect stock prices? If
of all variables as set by Nature.2 Thus, it does, then the size of the effect and why
the generic approach may help to avoid it occurs are important follow-up ques-
premature specialization [Boulding, tions. Additionally, the accounting re-
1956, p. 199]. searcher must separate the underlying
Section I presents a definition of empir- economic event (or state) from the account-
ical accounting research and theory, hy- ing report of the event. Thus, while a fi-
pothesis, and fact. It also defines "depen- nance researcher may be concerned only
dent," "independent," and prior and with firm characteristics, the accounting
contemporaneous influence variables. researcher must also be concerned with
Section II discusses alternative means for the costs and benefits of alternative ac-
separating the effects of prior and con- counting reports of those characteristics.4
temporaneous influence variables from In essence, empirical research involves
the independent variable(s), and in Section theory, hypothesis, andfact. "Facts" are
III the interrelationships among signifi- states or events that are observable in the
cance, power, and research design are real world. A "theory" offers a tentative
explored. Section IV gives a summary and explanation of the relationship between
conclusions. or among groups of facts in general. "Hy-
potheses" are predictions (or assertions)
I. A FRAMEWORK
FOREMPIRICAL
about the "facts" that will occur in a par-
RESEARCH IN ACCOUNTING
ticular instance assuming that the theory
Research is a purposive activity and its is valid. Finally, observing "facts" con-
purpose is to allow us to understand, pre- sistent with the prediction or assertion
dict, or control some aspect of the envi-
ronment. Research will be defined here 2 The problems are not identical. For example, while
as the development and testing of new experimenters have the advantage of being able to specify
the values of some variables, they also face the risk of
theories of 'how the world works' or refu- choosing values that are too close together (or too far
tation of widely held existing theories. apart) to allow precise estimates of treatment effects or to
For accounting research, the theories con- allow generalization of conclusions to the real world.
3 Within this definition, relevant questions for
cern how the world works with respect to
auditing include, "Does how precisely we audit and
accounting practices. Watts and Zimmer- report the state of a firm make a difference?" and,
man [1984, p.1], state: "The objective of "How can audits of a given precision be conducted ef-
accounting theory is to explain and predict ficiently?" The first auditing question is related to the
accounting question through the concept of materiality.
accounting practice." This positive, how- Parallel questions involving the design of accounting
the-world-is approach is in contrast with systems also could be developed.
the more traditional normative view that 4Accounting professors may conduct research in
finance, economics, behavioral science, or statistics. If
accounting "theory" is concerned with the accounting question is not addressed, however, the
what accounting practices ought to be. accounting professor may face the disadvantage of being
Empirical accounting research (broadly undertrained relative to other researchers. Also, he or she
ignores a comparative advantage in the knowledge of
considered) addressesthe question: "Does accounting institutions and the sometimes subtle role of
how we as a firm or as a society account information.
likely negligible effect, but others will re- DISENTANGLINGTHE EFFECTS FROM VS
quire attention. AND ZS FROMTHE EFFECT OF X
To be more specific, let Y denote the
For simplicity, assume that X is mea-
"dependent" variable to be understood,
suredat only two levels. Eitherthe observed
explained, or predicted. Variables caus-
Yis from the "control" group that receives
ing Y(or at least related to Y) can be clas-
no "treatment" or from the treatment
sified into three broad groups as follows:
group that receives the treatment. Alter-
X=the "independent" variable that natively, the two groups could simply be
the proposed theory states should different on some relevant dimension
effect Y, (e.g., to test theories about accelerated
Vs = prior-influence (prior-to-study depreciation, the control group might be
period) factors that may affect Y, defined as those firms that use straight-
and line and the treatment group as those that
Zs= contemporaneous factors (other use accelerated).
than X) that may affect Y.6 Also for simplicity, assume that there is
a singleprior-influencefactor Vthat effects
That is, Y=f(X, V,, V2, . ..,ZIZ2, ... Yand Vhas the same effect on Ywhether
A common Yfor addressingan account- the subject is from the control or treat-
ing question is the change in a firm's stock ment group. Furthermore, there are no
price. Others are a manager's act or deci- contemporaneous Zs that affect Y and
sion. A common X is a change or differ- the model determining Y is:
ence in accounting method, whether by Yij=Bo+BX,+B2Vj+ ej,, (1)
management's choice or by a regulatory
where Yij is the value of the dependent
directive. Prevalent Vs are the firm's prior
variable for the "j"th subject in the "i"th
period state variablessuch as profitability,
leverage, liquidity, and size. For tests of treatment, Bo is the intercept for the con-
trol group, Xi is an indicator variable
theories about decision-making behavior
(zero for the control group and one for
of particular human subjects, relevant
Vs often include the subject's personality treatment), Bo+ B1 is the intercept for the
treatment group (that is, B1is the effect of
traits, mathematical ability, education,
treatment), B2is the regression coefficient
training, age, firm association, and exper-
relating Vto Y, and eij is a random error
ience.
term. The eij term will include the effects
The most common Z factor in account-
of other Vs and Zs that are here assumed
ing research studies involving stock prices
to be negligible and randomly distributed
is the market return (Rm). Another com-
between the two groups, and eijis assumed
mon group of Zs for external reporting
to have expectation zero and be uncorre-
and managerial performance studies is
lated with either X or V.
the unexpected portion of contemporan-
For the simple model of equation 1, a
eous accounting measures for other firms
plot of the expected values of Y given V
or other divisions. Finally, since the ac-
for both groups will be parallel lines with
counting researcher is concerned with the
possibly different intercepts. The differ-
effect of accounting reports, Zs may be
ence in intercepts is the effect of the treat-
underlying characteristics of the "true
ment (B1). Figure 1 shows the components
state" of the firm at the time of the study
as measured by contemporaneous nonac- 6 Some Zs may be expectations,at the time of the
counting reports about the firm. study,of still futurevaluesof X, Y, V, and otherZs.
FIGURE 1
Y VALUES GROUPSUNDERANOVA, ANCOVA, ANDMATCHING
FORNONEQUIVALENT
I ~~~~~~~~~~~~Y=00+
X+02V
X
ANOVA ;
/- | andMatching
~~~NCOVA V
~~~~~~~~~~I I
lI _~~~~~~ I I
I I
V. V Vs
Matches
of equation 1 along with ellipsesthat ap- may assign to the treatmentgroup, say,
proximatethe locus of membersof the those with high values of V and to the
two groups. controlgroupthose withlow V. In analy-
An experimentermay ignore V and zingresults,the effect of the high Vvalues
may randomlyassignsubjectsto groups. (i.e., B2VJ) will be mixed with the treat-
On average,the groupswill be equivalent ment effect. An experimentermay rule
on V. For small samples,however,there out the possible effect of V by random
is nontrivialrisk that such a procedure assignmentof subjects measuredon V
It is often difficult to predict which will be the proposed theory implies a large effect
the greater problem. 10 on Yand/or the researcheris clever in de-
Equation 1 and Figure I present a very signing a plan to disentangle the effects of
simple situation even for a single V. For the Vsand Zs. For example, usingANOVA
example, the YI Vrelationship may differ (no matching) in a single test with target
depending on whether X is at level zero or ac=.05, 03=.1, and D=6/a=.5, the re-
one. Furthermore, the occurrence of a quired sample size is 70 for each of the two
given level of Vat time t-1 may have a di- groups. If the researcher has a theory
rect effect on Y at time t but may also yielding a larger 6 that would increase D
affect the level of X at time t which, in to .75, then the sample would be 32 each,
turn, affects Y at t. Thus, there may be and if D is 1.0 then the sample size is 18
two paths by which V affects Y. A com- per group. Alternatively, for D=.5 and
plete approach would include a model of holding 6 constant, if matching is used
the "selection" process by which V affects and the Y., Y, correlation is .25 then
X as well as the direct effects of X and V the required sample is approximately 57
on Y."1 pairs."3 If the Yo, Y1 correlation is .5
(implying a reduction in aof about 18 per-
III. ALPHA, BETA, SAMPLE SIZE
cent), then the required sample is 36 pairs.
AND RESEARCH DESIGN
The four factors and their implications
Planning researchto disentangle X, Vs, for accounting research will be discussed
and Zs involves four related factors. throughtwo subtopics.These are: 1) power,
These are alpha (ce),beta (@),sample size, and 2) prejudice against the null hypoth-
and what will be called the "research de- esis.
sign" factor (denoted D). In a given situa-
tion, setting any three of them sets the Power
fourth. The statistical factors of a (the Consider a researcherwho has a theory
probability of a type I error or incorrectly that the treatment effect (B1) is positive,
rejectinga true null hypothesis of no treat- and who therefore is interested in testing
ment effect), f3(the probability of a type the (null) hypothesis that the true effect
II error or not rejecting the null hypothe- of treatment is less than or equal to zero
sis when, in fact, there is a treatment against the alternative that the true effect
effect), and sample size are well known.
The research design factor is the ratio of '0 ANCOVA will usually be less biased, however (see
two subfactors. Its numerator is the hy- Cook and Campbell [1979, pp. 177-182], and Cochran
[1983, pp. 127-128]).
pothesized magnitude of the (X) treat- " See Cochran's comments on R. A. Fisher's advice to
ment effect (denoted 6), and its de- "Make your theories elaborate. " According to Cochran,
nominator is the standard deviation of Fisher meant that when "constructing a causal hypoth-
esis one should envisage as many different consequences
the residuals in the equation used to esti- of its truth as possible, and plan observational studies to
mate B1 (denoted a). Thus, D = 6/a. The discover whether each of these consequences is found to
numerator depends on the researcher's hold" [Rosenbaum, 1984, p. 43]. This advice is consis-
tent with Boulding's exhortation to develop and test
theory, and the denominator depends on theories that are at the level of the real world.
how the researcher disentangles the Vs 12 The required sample size is:
is greaterthan zero. Assume that a sample tive hypothesis is greater than .5, and
of treatment subjects has been matched power is less than .5. Even if Ho is false
or "paired" on V with control subjects. (i.e., B = 6). and thus the researcher's
Also, based on an assessment of the ap- theory of a positive treatment effect is
propriatesignificance level for the issue at correct, the researcherhas a less than even
hand, the researcherhas set a at .05, and chance of rejecting it!
the researcher has a research design in Suppose that the researcher in panel b
mind. observes a test statistic that is almost sig-
What the researcher may not consider nificant, and the sample estimate of the
at the planning stage is the magnitude of treatment effect is equal to 5. He or she
the hypothesized effect (i.e., a particular then decides to take a follow-up sample.
6 for the alternative hypothesis) and the The follow-up sample is also likely to in-
allowable 3 for that 6. 14 A 6 may not be dicate nonrejection due to its small size
considered since most theories suggest [Tversky and Kahneman, 1971, p. 107].
only the direction of an effect and not its The real culprit, of course, is the low
magnitude, and f3 is not considered be- power of the test. If the low power is anti-
cause no particular 6 is specified. The re- cipated at the planning stage, an attempt
searcher may proceed to testing with little can be made to mitigate its negative effects
consideration of whether the planned test or else abort the project. In general, power
has an adequate chance to reject the null can be increased by 1) increasing the sam-
hypothesis even if it is false. ple size, or 2) increasing the design factor
To illustrate, consider the sampling dis- D by developing better theories (yielding
tributions in Figure 2. For both panels of larger 6) or by making better use of agiven
Figure 2, the left-hand distribution is for sample size and theory by careful atten-
the mean of the paired differences if the tion to the Vs and Zs (yielding smaller a).
null hypothesis (B1=0) is true, and the As a practical matter, improved design
right-hand distribution applies if the par- is often the only alternative in accounting
ticular alternative (B1= 6) is true. Also for research since the size of samples in ac-
both panels, k is the point that yields counting frequently is effectively fixed.
a =.05 or five percent of the area to the For experiments, the pool of available au-
right of the point under the left-hand dis- ditors, accountants, financial statement
tribution (i.e., Ho). In panel a, the re- users, and even students is effectively lim-
search design and sample size yield a ited to fairly small numbers. Subjects' time
sampling distribution with a large area is not free, and the supply is not inexhaust-
(1 - 3)to the right of k under the alterna- ible. For passive observation, the number
tive hypothesis. Thus, there is high proba- of firms for which particular accounting
bility of rejecting Ho when the alternative and other required economic data are
hypothesis is true. In other words, the available may be relatively small. Thus,
power of the test (1 - f) is high. accounting researchers need to be aware
In Figure 2, panel b, 6 is the same as in of a variety of analytical techniques appli-
panel a, but the sampling distributions
4 See Tversky and Kahneman [19711. This is in
are much flatter due either to small sam- contrast to classical or normal distribution theory-based
ple sizes or a large standard deviation due audit sampling where, in addition to setting a to control
to remaining effects of Vsand Zs. Rather the risk of incorrect rejection, the auditor sets i to con-
than the relatively high power test of trol the risk of incorrect acceptance and sets 6 based on
"intolerable" error (materiality). The auditor then
panel a, the researcher faces a low power selects an estimator and calculates the minimum sample
test. At a(=.05, 13for the simple alterna- size subject to the target a, j, and 6.
FIGuRE2
SAMPLINGDIsRIuBUTIONSOF d * FORHIGH AND Low POWER TESTS
a. HighPower I I
OI _ _ _ _ _
Rt
b. LowPower
l~~~~~~~~~~~ l.0
l l~~~~~~~~
RejectHo~ Reec
I
l~~~~~~~~~~~~~Rc Ho
lY~o)M l
jlal
In fact, it may be unreasonableto expect results against the null are "signifi-
that a particulartheory based on account- cant." Especially interesting or in-
ing methods will yield a true differential novative results may be submitted
effect that is very large relative to the vari- on higher than .05 significance (or
ance of Y. How things are accounted for alternatively, the probability at
simply can't be expected to explain a large which the results are significant are
portion of stock price variability or man- reported), but rarely does an editor
agerial or investor behavior. Under some see results with significance levels
conditions, the sample size required to above .15. This prejudice need not
yield reasonable power exceeds the size of exist if not rejecting the null gives
the known population! reasonable credibility to the null."7
A researcher can get some protection 2. Ancillary hypotheses will be ele-
by making a tentative calculation of power vated in the exposition of results.
before investing in expensive data collec- Secondary hypotheses that are sig-
tion or in experimentation. For example, nificant ex post will receive more
passive observers of accounting changes attention than other secondary hy-
and stock returns may be able to make potheses and perhaps the primary
reasonable estimates of the standard devi- hypotheses. Suggestions will be
ation of return residuals and might make made that these results warrant
power estimates for various levels of 6. 16 further study, when in fact one
If the estimated power is inadequate even would expect about one in ten non-
for the maximum 6 that might reasonably sense relationships to be significant
exist, then the research can be redesigned at the .10 level.
or aborted. Experimenters are perhaps 3. Alternative operationalization of
more familiar with prospective power cal- variables or their functional form
culations and frequently use a pilot sam- will be conducted only if "prelimi-
ple to assist with the sample size and re- nary" results are insignificant. The
search design development. extent to which this search activity is
justified is open to debate since
Prejudice Against the Null Hypothesis most theories don't imply a single
A theory usually specifies the direction measurement or functional form.
of the treatment effect and a researcher 4. The search for errors will be asym-
generally sets out to reject hypotheses metric. Outliers that impede re-
based on the assumptionthat the treatment jection of the null hypothesis will
effect is zero or in the opposite direction tend to receive more diligent atten-
from what the theory predicts. The focus tion than those that favor rejecting
on rejecting the null hypothesis is the the null. If significant results are
source of a number of "biases" against
the null that may lead to dysfunctional 16 The choice of 6 is somewhat arbitrary, but in plan-
consequences. Greenwald [1975] lists ning it is useful to consider reasonable or plausible values
for the true treatment effect of X. Alternatively, one
eight such consequences; four that seem might choose the smallest effect that informed persons
most important for accounting research- would agree is empirically "important" and therefore
ers are discussed in order to be better able worth knowing about if it exists, or the largest amount
that one could reasonably expect.
to avoid them. " In classical statistics, not rejecting the null is not
equivalent to accepting the null. However, non-rejection
1. A paper will not be submitted for by a reasonably powerful test or series of tests does
publication consideration unless the increase one's subjective degree of belief in the null.
obtained on the first analysis of a are considered? Are there better ways to
problem, the neophyte researcher account for the effects of Vs and Zs?
may not consider a search for out- What are other Vsand Zs that might have
liers or for other violations of sta- important effects?
tistical assumptions underlying the The same approach can be applied by
analysis. Nonrejection may lead one the student to his or her own dissertation
to consider such explanations and proposal. While the basic development of
to search for programming errors a research proposal is the responsibility of
and data coding errors. the student, there is much to warrantearly
faculty discussion of planned dissertation
V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
research. That is, the faculty can evaluate
In this paper we have stressed consider- a proposal by considering the reasonable-
ation of planning for Vsand Zs to be able ness of the theory and the adequacy of
to isolate the effect of X as a potential ex- control of potential Vs and Zs. The
planation of differences in Y. This consid- faculty should be asked: Is the magnitude
eration may allow increased power in tests of the hypothesized effect plausible? Are
and may allow more to be learned from a all importantcompetingexplanationslisted
given sample. Planning for Vs and Zs can and adequately dealt with in the plan?
reduce the risk of not rejecting the null Will the proposed tests likely uncover evi-
hypothesis when it is false. Such planning dence of a difference equal to 6 if it exists?
may also allow a basis to argue that non- Will nonrejection lend credibility to the
rejection of the null hypothesis may sup- null?
port acceptance of the null. That is, if the Faculty approval of planned disserta-
treatment has an important effect, then it tion research reduces the student's risk by
should be revealedby the test. Thus, some- 1) ruling out potential topics that have
thing may be learned whether results are little chance of successful completion, 2)
statistically significant or not. This should gathering the right data on the first at-
increase the objectivity of the researcher, tempt, 3) eliminatingoutcome dependence
since the work is valuable whatever the (thus reducing moral hazard for the stu-
empirical results. dent), and 4) reducing the temptation of
There are at least two ways in which the the student (and faculty) to pursue num-
approach discussed in this paper can be erous tangents that may come to light as
useful to Ph.D. students. One is in evalu- the research progresses.
ating the researchdesign of others, and the
other is in planning the student's disserta- 1 In planning research or evaluating the research of
tion. 18 Students must evaluate the work others, a useful practice is to give early attention to the
of others whether in published articles, purpose of the research through preparation of a three-
short-paragraph abstract, synopsis, or working model of
working papers, or accounting research the research. The first paragraph answers the question
workshops. A student applying the ap- "What is the problem?" The second asks, "Why is it an
proach to the work of others might try to important problem?" and the third, "How will it be
solved?" Alternatively, the questions might be: "What
answer the following questions: What is are you (or the researcher) trying to find out?",
the Y and what is the X? What Vs and Zs "Why?", and "How will it be done?"
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