v CH PSaM STRATE Gite Ss To: Interested Parties From: Brad Chism Re: Survey of Jackson, MS Democratic Primary Date: 3/8/2017 Earlier this week our firm conducted a survey of the likely Democratic primary electorate in Jackson, Mississippi. This document is a summary of our findings. Survey Methodology. We used IVR technology to survey likely voters. Our sample is limited to voter households with land lines. The sample size is 528 respondents with a margin of error of 4.25%. We have weighted the results to reflect the 2013 Municipal Primary turnout demographics: 22% white, 71% African American, and the balance of other ethnicities. We weighted results by Ward to reflect the actual 2013 Primary turnout. Our weighting for age group responses also reflects 2013 Primary turnout. Key Findings Incumbent Tony Yatber is highly unpopular and is in last place among those we polled. His support is in single digits, and he has a net favorability rating of -39%. A runoff election is almost a certainty. There are three viable candidates at this stage: Graham, ‘Lumumba and Horhn. Paving streets, completing water/sewer systems, and reducing crime are the top issues on voters’ minds. 86% of respondents place one of these three issues as theit top priority. Paving streets leads the pack, with 43% listing this as the top priority for the next mayor. Antar Lumumba has the highest favorability of any of the candidates. Note that he has a net negative favorability rating with white respondents (30% favorable-44% unfavorable), but very popular with African-Americans (64-10%). Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Difference Crudup 16.1% 15.3% 08% Graham 48.9% 16.2% 32.7% Horhn 42.6% 20.3% 22.3% Lumumba 59.1% 13.4% 45.7% Yarber 19.0% 58.2% 39.2% ‘The mayoral election is currently a three-way race. Lumumba leads the field with 31%, followed by Graham with 23% and Horhn nine points behind. Lumumba leads among African- Americans; Graham leads with whites. Graham leads in Wards 1 and 3; Lumumba leads everywhereelse. The top three overall are also the top three in every ward. While Horhn trails Graham by almost ten points, he remains a serious candidate because of his name recognition and potential fundraising ability. His path to the runoff will require siphoning support from Graham, Lumumba and Crudup. The two other candidates we tested in this survey remain too far behind to make a serious bid, barring some large turn of events. Candidate Support Ronnie Crudup, Jr. 9.3% Robert Graham 23.2% ‘John Horhn 13.5% ‘Antar Lumumba 30.5% ‘Tony Yarber 7A% Undecided 165% Lumumba maintains a strong lead in either runoff scenario, In a hypothetical match up with John Horhn, Lumumba captures the support of 52% of respondents, with Horhn at 28%. Against Graham, Lumumba receives 48% to Graham’s 34%. ‘More than one third of voters in Ward 1 are undecided. This will have major implications for who makes the runoff. Robert Graham currently holds a sizable lead here, but Hothn has an ‘opportunity to pick up support. Itis unlikely that Lumumba will gain much ground here, though he is poised to outperform his 2014 showing in this section of the city. Our Perspective We believe this race is Antar Lumumba’s race to lose. We disagree with the conventional narrative that says that Lumumba will make it to the runoff but then lose because of his negatives. Lumumba not only has the highest favorability numbers of any of the candidates, he also has the lowest negatives. Lumumba will win no popularity contest among white voters in Northeast Jackson, but he has an opportunity to win—and win decisively—in five of the city’s seven wards, and compete in a sixth. Lumumba’s current numbers in this poll are very close to the final tallies of 2014, where he received 31% of the vote in the initial race and 46% in the runoff. Even when one drills down to the ward level, the survey numbers are very close to earlier election results—in 2014, Lumumba received 13% of the vote in Ward 1 in the special, and 27% in the runoff; we have him, at 11% in the primary and 24% /28% in the runoff (depending on his opponent). The question becomes whether these numbers represent his floor for 2017 or his ceiling. Undecided voters are currently split on the frontrunner, with 28% viewing him favorably to 29% viewing him unfavorably. While John Horhn cannot be counted out of the race, he has an uphill battle in surpassing Robert Graham for the number two spot in the runoff. He will need to take support from both Graham and Lumumba, and his efforts cannot just be focused on his current constituents in NorthJackson—he currently garners only 16% of the vote in Ward 2, where 81% of voters in his senate district live. That is because Graham also represents a large share of this ward as a County Supervisor, and Lumumba’s father represented the ward when on the City Council. Hence, Hothn hhas no geographic advantage over his opponents, and will need to draw voters from all over the city to make it to a runoff. Barring a sizable communications expenditure by Horhn, the race is likely to come down to Graham and Lumumba. In this scenario, Graham will probably win by a 2-to-1 margin in Northeast Jackson, which he currently represents on the Hinds County Board of Supervisors. But he will struggle in the rest of the city. If Graham can take that margin in Ward 1, win a majority in Ward 7, and keep the race close Wards 2 and 3, he has an opportunity to beat Lumumba. However, he is still at a steep disadvantage—in a hypothetical runoff, Graham only garners 34% of the vote and would need to get almost nine in ten Undecideds to win. Even in Ward 1, Graham leads Lumumba by only 48% 24% in the runoff. Factors That Could Change the Race ‘We are still seven weeks from the general election and have no indication of the top three candidates’ war chests or the quality of their field organizations. Out comments above are based on the assumptions that none of them has a massive advantage in either money or field capability. If there is general parity, we believe Lumumba will prevail. In addition to the campaign finance and field effort dynamics, we offer these four factors that could change the order of candidate finish. 1. White voters are generally less forgiving than African Ameticans when it comes to personal or financial scandals or accusations of public corruption. Attacks on candidates who need a large white voter percentage to win could change the dynamics of the race. 2. If Horhn, Graham, and the other candidates focus their attacks on Lumumba it is possible to damage his candidacy enough to cause hit to lose the runoff. At this point, however, it seems just as likely that those jockeying for second place will turn on each other in order to secure a spot in the runoff, writing off “safe” Lumumba districts and spending time and resources fighting over Wards 1, 2, and 7. 3. If Mayor Yarber has significant campaign resources and decides to use this to attack candidates, he could have an impact in deciding the two candidates in the runoff—although he won’t be one of them, 4. Council Races in Ward 6 and 7 should generate more interest down ballot than in the 2013 election. A quality field campaign could increase a Mayoral candidate's vote share by 2% or more with a heavy presence in these areas. This survey was conducted internally at our costs with no compensation from any candidate or independent expenditure committee. For more information call Brad Chism at 601.918.4563