Daily Economic Calendar

July 13, 2010

RDQ=RDQ Economics C=Consensus R=Range L=Last
NFIB small business optimism (June) 7:30am which does not support a picture of a substantial slowing in
C=NA L=92.2 global economic activity (and is completely inconsistent
Firms planning to increase employment with a double-dip). Over the three months ending June,
C=NA L=1% Chinese exports have risen 86.9% at an annual rate.

International trade deficit (May) 8:30am

Germany Exports (year-over-year)
RDQ=$40.8b C=$39.0b R=$37.0b to $41.5b L=$40.3b China Exports (year-over-year)
Exports Brazil Exports (year-over-year)
Japan Exports (year-over-year)
C=NA L=-0.7% 60 60
Imports
C=NA L=-0.4% 40 40
The softening in trade volumes in April (real exports fell
2.5% in April and real imports declined 1.5%) was not 20 20

corroborated by global data on exports and imports—we

0 0
look for a rebound in May, although nominal imports may
have been held back by a price-related decline in oil imports -20 -20
as imported petroleum prices fell 5.0% in the month. We
expect that the nominal trade deficit widened to $40.8 billion -40 -40
in May from $40.3 billion in April.
-60 -60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: Bbk, Haver, MDIC, JMoF/JTA
Exports of Goods and Services
three-month annualized change, %

ISM Manufacturing New Exports Treasury budget deficit (June) 2:00pm

40
three-month average, %
65
RDQ=$69.0b C=$69.0b R=$62.0b to $103.0b L=$94.3b
Based on Daily Treasury Statements, the Treasury should
60 report a budget deficit of around $69 billion in June, about
20
$25 billion less than the deficit reported for June 2009.
55 Although outlays increased versus the year-ago period, both
0
corporate and personal tax receipts rose significant on higher
50
income. On our forecast, the Treasury budget deficit would
-20
45
be reported at $1 trillion for the first nine months of the 2010
fiscal year.
-40
40

-60 35
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management /Haver Analytics

TRADE INCONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL SLOWING

The release of U.S. international trade data is lagged relative
to many other countries. For example, Germany and Japan
(among other countries) have already released May trade
data and June trade figures are available for China and
Brazil. Export growth in European, Asian, and Latin
American countries remained fairly robust in May and June,

John Ryding Conrad DeQuadros

ryding@rdqeconomics.com dequadros@rdqeconomics.com
(212) 584-3881 (212) 584-3882

The information herein has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Copyright 2010 RDQ Economics LLC.
All rights reserved. Unauthorized duplication, distribution or public display is strictly prohibited.