Name: Julia Williamson Period: 3

Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction

Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states
Candidate (Party) Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep) Gary Johnson (Lib)
Popular Vote Count 630,000 1,152,000 180,000
Pop. Vote % 35% 64% 1%

Congressional Election Predictions

Copy and paste as many tables as you need
MO, District 3 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)
Popular Vote % 39% 60%
Popular Vote Count 177,450 273,000

MO, District 4 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)

Popular Vote % 40% 59%
Popular Vote Count 143,200 211,220

MO, District 5 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)

Popular Vote % 62% 37%
Popular Vote Count 254,200 151,700

MO, District 6 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)

Popular Vote % 40% 58%
Popular Vote Count 120,000 174,000

MO, District 7 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)

Popular Vote % 35.5% 64%
Popular Vote Count 124,250 224,000

MO, District 8 Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep)

Popular Vote % 34% 63%
Popular Vote Count 101,660 188,370

Directions
Respond to the Election Prediction prompts in cohesive paragraphs.
 Include an Introduction to the assignment, your predictions and your strategy for
approaching the predictions
Include a Conclusion that looks at the implications of this prediction for future elections
All claims should be supported by data or analysis from credible sources.
Make sure to provide proper in-text citations for the demographic data and quotations
you use.
You may combine districts or use one district as exemplifying traits of another, but be
sure to discuss similarities and difference between them,.

Prompts

1. Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the
presidential election. Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional
elections.

2. Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain
how the candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional
races. This may also be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.

3. Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different
demographic groups. Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results
in the past. How do you expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your
state this year?

4. Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state.
Describe the most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain
how this difference will influence voting patterns.
 Crystal Ball Essay

Missouri is a conservative state that tends to safely vote Republican by a notable margin

in most elections. Out of eight districts, only two are majority Democrat. For my final prediction,

I had to incorporate specific demographics, key issues, and data on voter turnout within all my

districts in order to effectively calculate the outcome of this election. I started my prediction by

observing the demographics of past district elections to estimate a percentage of votes for Hillary

Clinton and Donald Trump. Then, I compared the population versus voter turnout to the past

election results in order to calculate the amount of votes each candidate will receive,

corresponding to the percentage I predicted. Finally, I corroborated the past state election results

and turnout to find my official estimate for not only my districts, Missouri 3-8, but for all 8 total.

Overall, I predict that Donald Trump would win the election in Missouri, beating Hillary 64% to

35%.

Two demographics factors that will influence voting in Missouri are age and race.

Regarding age, older people tend to be more conservative and participate more than younger

demographic groups (Edwards 315). Racially, whites make up 82.81% of Missouris population

and they participate far more as a group than many minority races (Data Access). In 2012, for

instance, whites had a voter turnout of 63.60%, while hispanics had a turnout of 45%. The

exception to this rule is black people, who had a higher voting turnout at 64.7%, with 1.1% more

participation than white people in Missouri (Data Access).

Two important issues in the election that could influence Missouris districts are abortion

and gun control. Considering Missouri is a majority-conservative state, one might assume that

the majority of citizens have pro-life stances. However, one poll shows that the state is 54% of

Missouri residents are pro-choice (Abortion). This statistic should be taken with a grain of salt,
however, since the results may be skewed, due to means of data collecting (it was unclear on the

website). That being said, the issue is polarizing, and can easily divide the 6 Republican

controlled districts from the 2 Democrat ones. The other issue is gun control, which is on the

radar of some prominent Missouri politicians, specifically in districts 3 and 8. Representatives

Luetkemeyer (D3) and Smith (D8), a devout NRA member, have gun control as a prominent part

of their agendas and platforms ("Missouri's").Since Clinton takes a pro-choice stance, and Trump

takes a pro-life stance on the topic, Trump will most likely have the majority of support of

Missouri voters on the issue. The same goes for gun control, where Trump will have the support

of the masses over Clinton, who holds the traditional Democrat views. This principle, where the

Republican candidate has more ideological similarities to Missouri voters also applies to the

congressional Districts 3-8, excluding D5, the sole Democrat-controlled district of the ones I was

assigned.

Older generations and younger generations have shifted in Missouris voter turnout over

the course of the past few years. Two interesting trends with voter turnout from older and

younger voters is that older people have much higher turnout percentages than young people in

any given election, and that young people barely vote in congressional elections. For the sake of

the numbers, Ill take the youngest voting group, ages 18-24, and the oldest demographic, ages

65 and over. Comparing the younger group to the older: In 2012, the vote turnout percentages

between the two groups were 42.50% to 72.20, and in 2008 it was 55.20% to 79.3% (Voting).

Even in the POTUS election, there is a wide margin between the two demographics.

Furthermore, comparing the midterm elections widens the turnout margins. In 2014, the

percentages were 14.50% to 50.20%, and in 2010 they were 19.30% to 54.70% (Voting).

Interestingly enough, this data shows that turnout for the elderly in congressional elections drops
near the turnout of the younger generations in POTUS elections, while the younger group drops

drastically to less than a 1/5 voter rate (Voting).

While districts 3-8 have extremely similar demographics, district 5 is the only exception.

Comparing districts 3 and 5, D3 has a white population making up 92.91% of the population,

with a black people at a miniscule 3.37% of the district ("My Congressional). In contrast, D5s

populations is made up of 68.47% white people, with 21.87% black people ("My

Congressional). This demographic data is most likely the reason why D5 is the only Democrat-

controlled district: the black population is much larger here than in the more conservative

districts. Considering this, D5 is most likely to be the only district out of D3-D8 that votes

Clinton in the presidential election.

While Missouri is a safe state, its voter demographic trends both conform and reject the

norm. For instance, the elderly population participates far more than the younger population. In

addition, the majority of the states districts are Republican-controlled, so they will most likely

vote Trump in the upcoming election. The main situation in my districts that differs is in D5, the

Democrat-controlled district, where black people voted slightly more than the white majority. As

a result, Hillary Clinton will most likely receive the majority of votes knowing shes the favored

candidate among minorities in the US. My predictions show that Trump will clobber Clinton in

Missouri, because of its white majority, political participation among the elderly, and its

Republican controlled districts.

Works Cited

"Abortion Poll Results for Missouri Voters." ISideWith. Web. 31 Oct. 2016.

Data Access and Dissemination Systems (DADS). "American FactFinder." U.S. Census Bureau.
 Web. 01 Nov. 2016.

Edwards, George, et al. Government in America. 14th ed., Longman, 2009.

"Missouri's Congressional Districts." Wikipedia. Web. 31 Oct. 2016.

"My Congressional District." My Congressional District. Web. 01 Nov. 2016.

"Voting and Registration." US Census Bureau, Data Integration Division. Web. 01 Nov.

2016.