Patricia Marie S.

Jingco March 3, 2017

Reaction Memo 2 POS133.3 B

Uncertainty: Internal and External

In Coping with Strategic Uncertainty: The Role of Institutions and Soft Balancing in
Southeast Asias Post-Cold War Strategy, (2008) Yuen Foong Khong argues that uncertainty
had been, and still is, the main driving force that causes member states of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to cooperate. I agree with this provided that we highlight
two distinct types of uncertainties: internal and external. I consider internal uncertainty as the
relevance and clout of ASEAN itself especially among member states while external
uncertainty would be the regions relationship with nations outside of it. Khong claims that
ASEANs relevance remains to be the greatest uncertainty faced by the organization while
China is still the greatest source of external uncertainty. To this I agree again, but would like
to point out that more often than not, it is threats external from the region that make ASEAN
states cooperate rather than internal threats. Hence, the presence of external uncertainty has
driven the cohesion of ASEAN together thereby reducing internal uncertainty. As external
threats to the region escalate, member states feel more compelled to work with each other to
secure their security and autonomy. Thus, sadly, it seems that ASEANs greatest uncertainty,
its relevance, has mostly been affected by uncertainties from external actors. ASEAN
relevance becomes even more doubtful when we hardly care about each other internally.

While China is still the greatest source of uncertainty externally, it seems that the
United States can also begin to be a source of uncertainty as of late. Although no major move
has been done by its new administration to shift US-SEA economic or military agreements
yet, its foreign policy and attempts to close its borders can cause uncertainties, even
economic wise as Southeast Asian migrant workers would be affected. In uncertainties today,
Khongs conclusion that ASEAN is more effective in cooperating to shape its desired
regional security environment than its desired economic environment seems to hold true. Due
to new uncertainties from Western nations foreign policies, ASEAN may soon become more
relevant again. If only we could do the same without help from trouble outside.

Work Cited:

Khong, Y.F. (2008). Coping with Strategic Uncertainty: The Role of Institutions and Soft
Balancing in Southeast Asias Post-Cold War Strategy. In Rethinking Security in East Asia:
Identity, Power, and Efficiency. Stanford: Stanford University Press.