Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Revenue forecast
COGS
t, tax rate
Capex
This value is fixed based on historical value. See "Depreciation estimate" tab
t = 30.7%
COGS 535.405
% of revenue 29.6%
Operating expenses
Research and development 345.927
EBITDA 255.99
EBIT 74.79
EBIT*(1-t) 51.82947
Capex 136.8
NWC 516.574
FCFF 82.90347
0.00
PV of FCFF 82.90347
FCFF 4830.3287163259
563.6625764435 591.0077020017
29.6% 29.6%
1339.1282840527 1404.0938017159
70.4% 70.4%
345.927 345.927
685.1194625748 718.3568611701
36.0% 36.0%
19.305 19.305
1050.3514625748 1083.5888611701
288.7768214779 320.5049405458
159.9 159.9
128.8768214779 160.6049405458
89.3116372842 111.2992237982
121.5221082915 127.41754547
656.9021086624 688.7705906081
140.3281086624 31.8684819457
-12.6385796696 111.9131963825
1.00 2.00
-12.067984611 102.0361948407
FY 2018E FY 2019E
(1 April 2018- 31 March 2019) (1 April 2019- 31 March 2020)
2091.3867369849 2124.8489247766
4.8% 1.6%
619.5302179459 629.442701433
29.6% 29.6%
1471.856519039 1495.4062233436
70.4% 70.4%
345.927 345.927
753.02535188 765.0737575101
36.0% 36.0%
19.305 19.305
1118.25735188 1130.3057575101
353.599167159 365.1004658336
159.9 159.9
193.699167159 205.2004658336
134.2335228412 142.2039228227
133.5668206147 135.7038897445
722.0112236589 733.5634032375
33.2406330509 11.5521795785
127.3260691756 154.8478534996
3.00 4.00
110.8477196963 128.7215019479
FY 2020E
Terminal
(1 April 2020- 31 March 2021)
2158.8465075731 2193.388052
1.6% 1.6%
639.5137846559 649.7460052
29.6% 29.6%
1519.3327229171 1543.642046
70.4% 70.4%
345.927 345.927
777.3149376302 789.7519766
36.0% 36.0%
19.305 19.305
1142.5469376302 1154.983977
376.7857852869 388.6580699
159.9 159.9
216.8857852869 228.7580699
150.3018492038 158.5293424
137.8751519805 140.0811544
745.3004176893 757.2252244
11.7370144518 11.92480668
160.5896827716 166.4233813
5.00 5.00
127.4676638688 4290.420151
USD Mln FY 2015
(1 April 2015- 31 March 2016)
Revenue 16137.5
% growth
COGS 4780.4
% of revenue 29.6%
Operating expenses
Research and development 3088.6
EBITDA 2285.6
EBIT 667.8
EBIT*(1-t) 462.8
Capex 1221.4
0.0
NWC 4612.3
FCFF 740.2
0.00
PV of FCFF 740.2
FCFF 43127.9
5032.7 5276.9
29.6% 29.6%
11956.5 12536.6
70.4% 70.4%
3088.6 3088.6
6117.1 6413.9
36.0% 36.0%
172.4 172.4
9378.1 9674.9
2578.4 2861.7
1427.7 1427.7
1150.7 1434.0
797.4 993.7
1085.0 1137.7
0.0 0.0
5865.2 6149.7
1252.9 284.5
-112.8 999.2
1.00 2.00
-107.7 911.0
FY 2018E FY 2019E
(1 April 2018- 31 March 2019) (1 April 2019- 31 March 2020)
18673.1 18971.9
4.8% 1.6%
5531.5 5620.0
29.6% 29.6%
13141.6 13351.8
70.4% 70.4%
3088.6 3088.6
6723.4 6831.0
36.0% 36.0%
172.4 172.4
9984.4 10092.0
3157.1 3259.8
1427.7 1427.7
1729.5 1832.1
1198.5 1269.7
1192.6 1211.6
0.0 0.0
6446.5 6549.7
296.8 103.1
1136.8 1382.6
3.00 4.00
989.7 1149.3
FY 2020E
Terminal
(1 April 2020- 31 March 2021)
19275.4 19583.8
1.6% 1.6%
5709.9 5801.3
29.6% 29.6%
13565.5 13782.5
70.4% 70.4%
3088.6 3088.6
6940.3 7051.4
36.0% 36.0%
172.4 172.4
10201.3 10312.4
3364.2 3470.2
1427.7 1427.7
1936.5 2042.5
1342.0 1415.4
1231.0 1250.7
0.0 0.0
6654.5 6760.9
104.8 106.5
1433.8 1485.9
5.00 5.00
1138.1 38307.3
1000.0
Historical Capex & Depreciation
Year Sales Capex Capex (% of Sales)
FY2010 1419.4 148.9 10.5%
FY2011 1508.9 1255.2 83.2%
FY2012 1557.3 266.7 17.1%
FY2013 1691.7 99.4 5.9%
FY2014 1777.8 101.6 5.7%
FY2015 1807.4 136.8 7.6%
Capex forecast
159.9
Year CA CL WC Change in WC Sales
2012 1231.4 633.8 597.6
2013 1592.5 802.8 789.7 192.1 1691.7
2014 1520.072 1016.824 503.248 -286.452 1777.8
2015 1373.787 857.213 516.574 13.326 1807.4
Forecast
47%
28%
29%
35%
Type Oncology GI Cardiovascu
CNS Others
2016 5.00% 5.00% 5% 10.40% 4.40%
2017 4.00% 4.45% 5% 9.90% 4.40%
2018 4% 4.45% 5% 9.40% 4.40%
2019 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2020 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
terminal 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Healthcare
9.26%
8.76%
8.2600%
2%
2%
2%
Revenue streams
Ethical drugs
Year CNS GI Oncology Cardiovascu
Others Healthcare Others
FY2015 65.3045 490.8063 458.6312 392.9177 241.0404 80.1 78.6
FY2016 72.09617 515.3466 481.5627 412.5636 251.6462 87.51726 82.0584
FY2017 79.23369 538.2795 500.8252 433.1917 262.7186 95.183772 85.669
FY2018 86.68165 562.2329 520.8583 454.8513 274.2782 103.045952 89.4384
FY2019 88.06856 571.2287 529.192 462.1289 278.6667 104.694687 90.8694
FY2020 89.47766 580.3683 537.6591 469.523 283.1254 106.369802 92.3233
Terminal 90.9093 589.6542 546.2616 477.0354 287.6554 108.071719 93.8005
Total
1807.4
1902.791
1995.102
2091.387
2124.849
2158.847
2193.388
Equity Market value Debt 1 Debt 2
FY12 834.4 1080.4
FY13 3863.1 970.1 25% 1225.8 32%
FY14 4738.8 799.5 17% 1073.2 23%
FY15 4058.9 870.4 21% 955.7 24%
D/E 18%
4.73%
471.3 111.3 96.4 834.4
463.3 241.3 110.1 970.1
419.4 210 70.1 799.5
179.8 360 102.1 870.4
Oncology
Drug Sales
Velcade 162
Leuprorelin 124.4
Adcetris 27.6
Ninlaro 4
Vectibix 18.4
Total (from major drugs) 336.4
Remainder proportion 0.278177
Total contribution 458.6312