Series 170

79
77
72
81 Date Jan-09 Forecast of SerieFitted
Dec-08
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09 Values 77
75.187265236
76.409196501
76.720257718 79
80
83
85
80
74
67 May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 79.729381249
82.60540679
82.364805516
77.83573804
73.796031946
71.28959764
70
65
60
80
79
76 Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10 68.17271595
66.55699256
69.098797082
72.798372193
76.535911587
75.604777396
72
74
71 May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10 73.796031946
74.181415534
74.128324964
72.134394171
71.694637402
72.672640981
72
74
73
71
70 Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11 73.494749537
72.010451913
71.447414514
71.918253704
71.594023256
69.283722236 Series 1
68
64
63
59 May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11 67.986294088
67.64339247
66.525419839
63.086609335
61.929333342
62.614143959
65
60
57
59 Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12 61.836961679
59.492283852
58.097378584
57.962089087
59.682805227
60.979590949
68
67
65
64 May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12 63.289059224
66.637542768
67.792570694
65.565454496
65.143230881
66.763273981
68
70
85
80
82
75 Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13 70.200157316
73.125932235
76.639095154
80.34224496
80.464079234
77.21602675
76
77
80
79
78
89
160 May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13 76.391872266
77.953351917
79.323643466
79.323045137
81.830775793
86.377343173
90
94
101
122
134
140 Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14 91.868436921
96.798903518
106.05861878
119.19318971
130.64325306
135.59283028
138
148
149
139
138
141 May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14 140.29898871
144.46516347
145.46891805
141.41811641
138.32120561
137.67567798
134
130
126
121
115 Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15 136.09200173
129.14783286
123.98227813
121.83354517
116.83130875
107.08611093
94
95
101
66
89
106 May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15 101.85582969
95.681452918
89.587565384
88.370829972
89.371073865
94.549872003
100
96
94
90
88
104 140 Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16 99.724772216
96.179192228
92.46135996
93.5440223
96.30346491
95.931307712
102
96
95
94
95 May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16 97.282206268
98.573270811
96.937040337
93.57640481
92.955805735
93.795484726
93
90
88
94
90 Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17 92.826719755
90.657951953 93.389017946
90.601790617
89.86551964
92.443874189
92.826719755
May-17
Jun-17 90.429979709
92.124266428
Jul-17 90.719537275
Aug-17
Sep-17 92.7646306
Jan-18 90.492753032
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Mar-18 92.060543729
92.764881112
90.735026186
90.496707258
92.049608824
92.767160855
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18

Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast
Date Monthly Quarterly Annual
Apr-2017 90.66
May-2017 90.43
Jun-2017 92.12 273.21
Jul-2017 92.76
Aug-2017 90.72
Sep-2017 90.49 273.98
Oct-2017 92.06
Nov-2017 92.76
Dec-2017 90.74 275.56 822.75
Jan-2018 90.50
Feb-2018 92.05
Mar-2018 92.77 275.31
Avg 91.51 274.52 822.75
Max 92.77 275.56 822.75
Min 90.43 273.21 822.75

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 3.17%
The data has a standard deviation of 23.12
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 96.82%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 3.17% Mean
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 1,680.66 Standard Deviation
R-Square 96.82%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Average
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
Dec-2008 79.00 79.00 0.99
Jan-2009 77.00 77.00 0.99
Feb-2009 70.00 75.19 74.75 86.65 1.01 0.86
Mar-2009 72.00 76.41 75.38 86.65 1.01 0.87
Apr-2009 81.00 76.72 77.38 86.65 0.99 0.89
May-2009 80.00 79.73 80.63 86.65 0.99 0.93
Jun-2009 83.00 82.61 82.13 86.65 1.01 0.95
Jul-2009 85.00 82.36 81.25 86.65 1.01 0.94
Aug-2009 80.00 77.84 78.50 86.65 0.99 0.91
Sep-2009 74.00 73.80 74.63 86.65 0.99 0.86
Oct-2009 67.00 71.29 70.88 86.65 1.01 0.82
Nov-2009 70.00 68.17 67.25 86.65 1.01 0.78
Dec-2009 65.00 66.56 67.13 86.65 0.99 0.77
Jan-2010 60.00 69.10 69.88 86.65 0.99 0.81
Feb-2010 80.00 72.80 72.38 86.65 1.01 0.84
Mar-2010 79.00 76.54 75.50 86.65 1.01 0.87
Apr-2010 76.00 75.60 76.25 86.65 0.99 0.88
May-2010 74.00 73.80 74.63 86.65 0.99 0.86
Jun-2010 72.00 74.18 73.75 86.65 1.01 0.85
Jul-2010 74.00 74.13 73.13 86.65 1.01 0.84
Aug-2010 74.00 72.13 72.75 86.65 0.99 0.84
Sep-2010 71.00 71.69 72.50 86.65 0.99 0.84
Oct-2010 72.00 72.67 72.25 86.65 1.01 0.83
Nov-2010 72.00 73.49 72.50 86.65 1.01 0.84
Dec-2010 74.00 72.01 72.63 86.65 0.99 0.84
Jan-2011 73.00 71.45 72.25 86.65 0.99 0.83
Feb-2011 71.00 71.92 71.50 86.65 1.01 0.83
Mar-2011 70.00 71.59 70.63 86.65 1.01 0.82
Apr-2011 70.00 69.28 69.88 86.65 0.99 0.81
May-2011 70.00 67.99 68.75 86.65 0.99 0.79
Jun-2011 68.00 67.64 67.25 86.65 1.01 0.78
Jul-2011 64.00 66.53 65.63 86.65 1.01 0.76
Aug-2011 64.00 63.09 63.63 86.65 0.99 0.73
Sep-2011 63.00 61.93 62.63 86.65 0.99 0.72
Oct-2011 59.00 62.61 62.25 86.65 1.01 0.72
Nov-2011 65.00 61.84 61.00 86.65 1.01 0.70
Dec-2011 60.00 59.49 60.00 86.65 0.99 0.69
Jan-2012 57.00 58.10 58.75 86.65 0.99 0.68
Feb-2012 57.00 57.96 57.63 86.65 1.01 0.67
Mar-2012 57.00 59.68 58.88 86.65 1.01 0.68
Apr-2012 59.00 60.98 61.50 86.65 0.99 0.71
May-2012 68.00 63.29 64.00 86.65 0.99 0.74
Jun-2012 67.00 66.64 66.25 86.65 1.01 0.76
Jul-2012 67.00 67.79 66.88 86.65 1.01 0.77
Aug-2012 67.00 65.57 66.13 86.65 0.99 0.76
Sep-2012 65.00 65.14 65.88 86.65 0.99 0.76
Oct-2012 64.00 66.76 66.38 86.65 1.01 0.77
Nov-2012 68.00 70.20 69.25 86.65 1.01 0.80
Dec-2012 70.00 73.13 73.75 86.65 0.99 0.85
Jan-2013 85.00 76.64 77.50 86.65 0.99 0.89
Feb-2013 80.00 80.34 79.88 86.65 1.01 0.92
Mar-2013 82.00 80.46 79.38 86.65 1.01 0.92
Apr-2013 75.00 77.22 77.88 86.65 0.99 0.90
May-2013 76.00 76.39 77.25 86.65 0.99 0.89
Jun-2013 77.00 77.95 77.50 86.65 1.01 0.89
Jul-2013 80.00 79.32 78.25 86.65 1.01 0.90
Aug-2013 79.00 79.32 80.00 86.65 0.99 0.92
Sep-2013 78.00 81.83 82.75 86.65 0.99 0.95
Oct-2013 89.00 86.38 85.88 86.65 1.01 0.99
Nov-2013 90.00 91.87 90.63 86.65 1.01 1.05
Dec-2013 94.00 96.80 97.63 86.65 0.99 1.13
Jan-2014 101.00 106.06 107.25 86.65 0.99 1.24
Feb-2014 122.00 119.19 118.50 86.65 1.01 1.37
Mar-2014 134.00 130.64 128.88 86.65 1.01 1.49
Apr-2014 140.00 135.59 136.75 86.65 0.99 1.58
May-2014 138.00 140.30 141.88 86.65 0.99 1.64
Jun-2014 148.00 144.47 143.63 86.65 1.01 1.66
Jul-2014 149.00 145.47 143.50 86.65 1.01 1.66
Aug-2014 139.00 141.42 142.63 86.65 0.99 1.65
Sep-2014 138.00 138.32 139.88 86.65 0.99 1.61
Oct-2014 141.00 137.68 136.88 86.65 1.01 1.58
Nov-2014 134.00 136.09 134.25 86.65 1.01 1.55
Dec-2014 130.00 129.15 130.25 86.65 0.99 1.50
Jan-2015 126.00 123.98 125.38 86.65 0.99 1.45
Feb-2015 121.00 121.83 121.13 86.65 1.01 1.40
Mar-2015 115.00 116.83 115.25 86.65 1.01 1.33
Apr-2015 115.00 107.09 108.00 86.65 0.99 1.25
May-2015 94.00 101.86 103.00 86.65 0.99 1.19
Jun-2015 95.00 95.68 95.13 86.65 1.01 1.10
Jul-2015 101.00 89.59 88.38 86.65 1.01 1.02
Aug-2015 66.00 88.37 89.13 86.65 0.99 1.03
Sep-2015 89.00 89.37 90.38 86.65 0.99 1.04
Oct-2015 106.00 94.55 94.00 86.65 1.01 1.08
Nov-2015 100.00 99.72 98.38 86.65 1.01 1.14
Dec-2015 96.00 96.18 97.00 86.65 0.99 1.12
Jan-2016 94.00 92.46 93.50 86.65 0.99 1.08
Feb-2016 90.00 93.54 93.00 86.65 1.01 1.07
Mar-2016 88.00 96.30 95.00 86.65 1.01 1.10
Apr-2016 104.00 95.93 96.75 86.65 0.99 1.12
May-2016 102.00 97.28 98.38 86.65 0.99 1.14
Jun-2016 96.00 98.57 98.00 86.65 1.01 1.13
Jul-2016 95.00 96.94 95.63 86.65 1.01 1.10
Aug-2016 94.00 93.58 94.38 86.65 0.99 1.09
Sep-2016 93.00 92.96 94.00 86.65 0.99 1.08
Oct-2016 95.00 93.80 93.25 86.65 1.01 1.08
Nov-2016 93.00 93.39 92.13 86.65 1.01 1.06
Dec-2016 90.00 90.60 91.38 86.65 0.99 1.05
Jan-2017 88.00 89.87 90.88 86.65 0.99 1.05
Feb-2017 94.00 92.44 86.65 1.01 1.06
Mar-2017 90.00 92.83 86.65 1.01 1.06
Apr-2017 90.66 86.65 0.99 1.06
May-2017 90.43 86.65 0.99 1.06
Jun-2017 92.12 86.65 1.01 1.06
Jul-2017 92.76 86.65 1.01 1.06
Aug-2017 90.72 86.65 0.99 1.06
Sep-2017 90.49 86.65 0.99 1.06
Oct-2017 92.06 86.65 1.01 1.06
Nov-2017 92.76 86.65 1.01 1.06
Dec-2017 90.74 86.65 0.99 1.06
Jan-2018 90.50 86.65 0.99 1.06
Feb-2018 92.05 86.65 1.01 1.06
Mar-2018 92.77 86.65 1.01 1.06

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Overall Data.xlsx]Nov16-Mar17'!$M$1:$M$100
Time scale for data Monthly
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 3/21/2017 9:29 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
ov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18
Value
86.53
23.12