Sie sind auf Seite 1von 16

Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

sign in

homeeconomymarketscompaniesUK worldsportfootball opinionculture lifestylefashion environment techmoneytravel

Eurozone crisisProject Syndicate economists

Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game

Anatole Kaletsky says Greece has shown its best cards too early and may have missed prized opportunity to end self-
destructive austerity imposed on Europe by Germany

New Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has played his hand badly against the troika Photograph: Petros
Giannakouris/AP

Project Syndicate and Anatole Kaletsky


Monday 9 February 2015 14.36GMT

SharesComments
1,072 312

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal. What
makes such a deal seem impossible is not the principled opposition of the two governments Greece has demanded a
debt reduction, while Germany has insisted that not a euro of debt can be written off but something more
fundamental: while Greece is obviously the weaker party in this conflict, it has far more at stake.

Game theory suggests that some of the most unpredictable conflicts are between a weak, but determined, combatant
and a strong opponent with much less commitment. In these scenarios, the most stable outcome tends to be a draw in
which both sides are partly satisfied.

In the Greek-German confrontation, it is easy, at least in theory, to design such a positive-sum game. All we must do is
ignore political rhetoric and focus on the economic outcomes that the protagonists really want.

Germany is determined to resist any debt write-offs. For German voters, this objective matters much more than the
details of Greek structural reforms. Greece, for its part, is determined to gain relief from the punitive and counter-
productive austerity imposed on it, at Germanys insistence, by the troika (the European commission, the European
Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund). For Greek voters, this objective matters much more than detailed
calculations about the net present value of national debt in 30 years.

A deal should be easily negotiable if both sides concentrate on their top priorities, while compromising on their
secondary aims. Unfortunately, human fallibility seems to be working against such a rational solution.

Yanis Varoufakis, Greeces new finance minister, is a professor of mathematical economics who specialises in game
theory. But his negotiating technique unpredictable oscillations between aggressiveness and weakness is the
opposite of what game theory would dictate. Varoufakiss idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand
a ransom for not pulling the trigger.

Advertisement

German and European Union policymakers are calling his bluff. As a result, the two sides have become stuck in a
passive-aggressive standoff that has made serious negotiation impossible.

There was nothing inevitable about this outcome. Just last month, the European Central Banks president, Mario
Draghi, provided a textbook example of how these negotiations could, and should, have progressed, when he
outmanoeuvred German opposition to the monetary stimulus that Europe clearly needed.

Draghi spent months before the ECBs 22 January announcement that it would launch quantitative easing (QE) in
intense public debate with the Germans over which point of principle they chose as a red line the point beyond
which no deal would be possible. Germanys red line was debt mutualisation: there must be no sharing of losses if any

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

eurozone country should default.

Draghi let Germany win on this issue, which he viewed as economically irrelevant. But, crucially, he was careful not to
back down until the last possible moment. By focusing the QE debate on risk-sharing, Draghi managed to distract
Germany from an infinitely more important issue: the enormous size of the QE programme, which completely defied
the German taboo against monetary financing of government debts. By conceding at the right time on an issue of no
importance, Draghi achieved an enormous breakthrough that really mattered to the ECB.

Had Varoufakis adopted an equivalent strategy for Greece, he would have stuck doggedly to his demand for debt
cancellation until the last moment, then backed down on this principle in exchange for major concessions on
austerity and structural reforms. Or he could have adopted a less aggressive strategy: Concede from the start the
German principle that debts are sacrosanct and then show that austerity could be eased without any reduction in the
face value of Greek debt. But, instead of consistently pursuing either strategy, Varoufakis veered between defiance and
conciliation, losing credibility both ways.

Greece started the negotiation by insisting on debt reduction as its red line. But, instead of sticking to this position and
turning a debate over debt forgiveness into a Draghi-style diversionary tactic, Greece abandoned this demand within
days. Then came the pointless provocation of refusing talks with the troika, despite the fact that the three institutions
are all much more sympathetic to Greek demands than the German government.

Finally, Varoufakis rejected any extension of the troika programme. This created an unnecessary new deadline of 28
February for the withdrawal of ECB funding and consequent collapse of the Greek banking system.

Greeces idealistic new leaders seem to believe that they can overpower bureaucratic opposition without the usual
compromises and obfuscations, simply by brandishing their democratic mandate. But the primacy of bureaucracy over
democracy is a core principle that EU institutions will never compromise.

The upshot is that Greece is back where it started in the poker contest with Germany and Europe. The new government
has shown its best cards too early and has no credibility left if it wants to try bluffing.

So what will happen next? The most likely outcome is that Syriza will soon admit defeat, like every other eurozone
government supposedly elected on a reform mandate, and revert to a troika-style programme, sweetened only by
dropping the name troika. Another possibility, while Greek banks are still open for business, might be for the
government to unilaterally implement some of its radical plans on wages and public spending, defying protests from
Brussels, Frankfurt, and Berlin.

If Greece tries such unilateral defiance, the ECB will almost certainly vote to stop its emergency funding to the Greek
banking system after the troika programme expires on 28 February. As this self-inflicted deadline approaches, the
Greek government will probably back down, just as Ireland and Cyprus capitulated when faced with similar threats.

Such last-minute capitulation could mean resignation for the new Greek government and its replacement by EU-
approved technocrats, as in the constitutional putsch against Italys Silvio Berlusconi in 2012. In a less extreme
scenario, Varoufakis might be replaced as finance minister, while the rest of the government survives. The only other
possibility, if and when Greek banks start collapsing, would be an exit from the euro.

Whatever form the surrender takes, Greece will not be the only loser. Proponents of democracy and economic
expansion have missed their best chance to outmanoeuvre Germany and end the self-destructive austerity that
Germany has imposed on Europe.

Anatole Kaletsky is chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking and the author of
Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

Project Syndicate, 2015

Eurozone crisis Banking Economics Euro Currencies More


More

related content
Eurozone crisis live: Greece confident as debt swap deal closes
8 Mar 2012 497
Eurozone debt crisis live: Juncker cancels eurozone Greece meeting
14 Feb 2012 705
European debt crisis pitches Germany against Greece
10 Feb 2012 236
Papandreou
22 Jun 2011 survives confidence vote on handling of Greece debt crisis
Greece faces new debt crisis amid fears of default
14 Apr 2011
Debt crisis: The EU is waterboarding Greece
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen
7 May 2010 57

Project Syndicate economists

Analysis / The central banks and their bottom line


2d

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

Has an 2015
11 Feb accidental currency war erupted?
A call to antimicrobial arms
Project Syndicate and Jim ONeill
10 Feb 2015
The global economy: reasons to be cheerful
Jim O'Neill
5 Feb 2015
A Greek morality tale: why we need a global debt restructuring framework
Joseph E Stiglitz
4 Feb 2015
Loose monetary policy has not solved the world's economic problems
Nouriel Roubini
1 Feb 2015

More Project Syndicate economists

comments (312)
This discussion is closed for comments.

OrderOrder
by byOldestThreadsThreads
Collapsed

1 2 3 4 5

MickGJ
9 Feb 2015 15:42

But his negotiating technique unpredictable oscillations between aggressiveness and weakness is the opposite of 7
what game theory would dictate. 8

it would be a pretty good strategy if you were dealing on the side in Greek bonds, though.
Yields oscillating between 10 and 20% depending on whether Syriza are being aggressive or conciliatory? I hate to cast
aspersions but if you had known in advance what Varoufakis or Tsipiras were going to say next you could have doubled
or quadrupled your money since the elections.

Just sayin'.

Report Daniel Vladimiro


9 Feb 2015 15:50

It's a catch 22 1
2
Report mark1965
9 Feb 2015 15:53

Britain will be alright if Greece decides on a marble backed currency. 5


6
Report Midpoint

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

9 Feb 2015 15:58

I wish the people of Greece the very best, especially the younger generations that have done nothing to have their lives
17
ruined, but: 18

Greek Govt: Give us major concessions or there will be consequences


EU: No.
Greek Govt: We have a democratic mandate and our people are suffering
EU: No.
Greek Govt: Make concessions or we'll leave the Euro!
EU: Ok.See you around.
Greek Govt: You'll be sorry if we go!
EU: We're willing to take the risk. Also, it will be less boring and annoying after you've left.

And then?

MickGJ Midpoint
Report
And then? 22
23

Greek Govt: So that's it then?


EU: Yup
Greek Govt: This is your last chance
EU: Fine
Greek Govt: OK, we're leaving now.
EU:Bye
Greek Govt: We're heading for the door.
EU: Whatever
Greek Govt: Opening the door.
EU: Uh-huh
Greek Govt: This is it now. We're actually outside the door.
EU: Dum-de-dum
Greek Govt: As soon as this door closes it's over. You know that? Hello? I've got my handle on the door and I'm closing
it now...call me!
Report MickReid
9 Feb 2015 15:59

"Proponents of democracy and economic expansion have missed their best chance to outmanoeuvre Germany" 22
23
People talk as if democracy is some infallible concept, and not just the least-bad system we have yet developed. By all
accounts the German public are against giving any debt relief - and Merkel has a democratic mandate to represent the
German people - we could go around in circles for hours debating the inherent contradictions of the "proponents of
democracy".

Report
MorphaToo MickReid
So now you understand why monetary union without political federation was a really stupid idea. 2
3
Report
DaveRogers MorphaToo
So now you understand why monetary union without political federation was a really stupid idea. 0

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

1
Not according to the Graun

Fred Bloggs MickReid


Report
By all accounts the German public are against giving any debt relief 1
2
And of paying off their wartime debt to Greece.
Report chrystophylax
9 Feb 2015 16:00

Any cards Greece has are owned by others. 17


18
Greece should do what it should have done back in 2010:
1) get out of the eurozone
2) radically restructure its economy
3) clamp down on corruption and tax evasion

Had it done so then it would have save itself five years of misery and be well on the way to recovery.

Report
pebkac7291 chrystophylax
That may be so, but the EU didn't want them to leave in 2010 because it would have lead to contagion and possibly 5
collapse of the Euro itself. They now believe that they have put in place enough defences against that (taking banks' 6
debt onto the ECB balance sheet, ESM, etc.), but they were quite content to see Greece go to ruin while they
constructed them.

Report
chrystophylax pebkac7291
You may be right, but the EU has still screwed itself: 8
9
If it lets Greece off the hook, Syriza will claim victory and this will encourage other radical parties like elsewhere like
Podemos creating more pressure on Eurozone banks who've lent money to other massively indebted economies.

If it lets Greece leave the Eurozone it proves that exit from the the Eurozone (and thus the EU) is possible. This shatters
the one-way ratchet motion of the European Project juggernaut.

Report
pebkac7291 chrystophylax
I know there is Spain and Portugal and so on, but Greece is pretty unique really. They should compromise, which 3
means, in my view, the EU actually giving some ground. They should have considered the bond swap proposal more 4
seriously. It would have been an almightly fudge, but so what's new? At least Greece could have reduced their surplus to
something more reasonable and would have had a chance to rebuild itself. No-one apart from the die-hard anti-
europeans really wants a Grexit, not even the Greek people.

Show 12 more replies


Report
prefec2
9 Feb 2015 16:02

As a German, I hope that Greece achieves its main goal writing off their debt and be able to end corruption in Greece 15
16
and increase the ability to tax the rich. The latter might even help the rest of the EU, as we might be able to improve the
fairness in paying taxes in other countries too.

SpursSupporter prefec2
Report
be able to end corruption in Greece and increase the ability to tax the rich 7
8

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

If they achieve their main goal why would you expect them to end corruption and be able to tax the rich etc. Achieving
this goal will signal that things can carry on as they were.

BrazilR SpursSupporter
Report
You've hit the nail on the head there, despite being a Spurs supporter! Clearly, Germany wants to ensure that genuine 9
reforms occur in Greece to avoid the situation where Germany is permanently subsidising an unreformed Greek state. 10

ruffidea BrazilR
Report
You don't seem to have understood the significance of Syriza smashing the 40 year domination of Greek politics by 5
Pasok and New Democracy. Both of these parties enjoyed a cosy situation where they and their rich friends alternately 6
sucked the country dry whilst allowing these same parasites to avoid paying tax. Syriza has never been a part of this and
have been brought to power on a wave of anti-rich bastard sentiment, which they fully endorse. If they were to become
complacent in not going after the people generally seen as having caused the debt problems of Greece, they will lose
popular support and they know it.

Show 6 more replies


Report
pebkac7291
9 Feb 2015 16:03

Or he could have adopted a less aggressive strategy: Concede from the start the German principle that debts are 6
sacrosanct and then show that austerity could be eased without any reduction in the face value of Greek debt. 7

Did Varoufakis not do just that? He offerred to swap Greece's outstanding debt with alternative bonds, including growth-
linked bonds. These would have had the same nominal value.

KatieL pebkac7291
Report
If that were in any way a good offer, he wouldn't need to convince the Germans. Because he could just sell them to 6
investors and use the money to pay off the other debts. 7

That he can't do that tells you that the new bonds are NOT the same value as the old ones.

pebkac7291 KatieL
Report
Interesting point, and I obviously don't know the details of the offer, but I'm not sure it's so easy just to offload 300bn or1
so on a decades-long timescale onto private investors who may not have the right requirements in terms of long term 2
risk to take it up.

I think just about everyone agrees now that the Greek national debt cannot be paid off on the current terms. It is growing
faster than the country is able to, and the country is in a very bad state with huge unemployment and so on. So the
current debt is a fiction. Replacing it with a non-fiction is painful to the holders of the debt because it crystalises their
losses and possibly encourages other countries (Italy, Spain etc) to follow suit. On the other hand it may enable Greece
to get back on its feat, whereas if the Euro blows up then it will probably be much worse for everyone, despite all the
"make my day" posturing we see now. So really they should find some compromise, and this one didn't sound that
outrageous to me.

pebkac7291 KatieL
Report
(My original point was that the article appears to be wrong. Whether or not the offer is good, it does at least appear to be1
an offer, and one of the form that the article was saying didn't exist.) 2

Report flabergasted
9 Feb 2015 16:12

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

I see one major Ooops in this thinking. You assume that the Greek position is Rhetoric. What if it is the bare truth and 16
what if they are not going to step away from it? 17

You didn't even consider that Tsipras could go one step further with his goals and hold a referendum on backing down or
holding fast even if the cost is exiting the Euro. Giving Tsipras and Varoufakis absolute legitimacy to carry on as they
are.

You assume a climb down, capitulation or breakdown of government. Yes that might have happened if it was New
Democracy where most of the MP's fear the loss of the Euro, not so much Syriza or their partners.

I do, however, thank you for one statement.

But the primacy of bureaucracy over democracy is a core principle that EU institutions will never compromise

Thank you for that, it is something I have known for more than a decade but something the Guardian dances around like
a Tart round an Army Camp. Nice to have it very clearly stated. I wonder how you will make this a good case for the UK
to stay in the EU????
Seaandshells flabergasted
Report
Well said. 3
4
kizbot flabergasted
Report
Contributor
ah.. i posted further down before seeing this. spot on. 2
3
Report jolyonwagg1
9 Feb 2015 16:12

"Varoufakiss idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger. German
10
and European Union policy makers are calling his bluff" < Yes I think Greece as painted itself into a corner. All the 11
threatening rhetoric, the rest of Europe may just end up saying OK go, the door is over there, leave the euro. We have
tired of your tantrums and games.

Report
RISClives jolyonwagg1
So what? In ten years time there won't be a euro, anyway... 9
10
Report
themanxman RISClives
your being rather generous with your timescale,i'd give the EURO ten weeks after the greeks get out of the 5
undemocratic EUSSR. 6

Report
RISClives themanxman
I'm being prudent... LOL 2
3
In fact, the greeks have been kicked out of the Euro last week, when the ECB ceassed securing lioquidity to greek
banks.

Show 4 more replies


Report
RISClives
9 Feb 2015 16:25

Anatole Kaletski forgets that Mrio Draghi is a Goldie, and therefore tells Merkel how its goona be, not the other way 1
around. Sure, is a finer customer than Varoufakis.. but the greek simply doen't have the leverage and has to 2

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

compensate with agressiveness...

Report 60022Mallard
9 Feb 2015 16:30

Good to see the protests in Vienna today. 3


4
With freedom of movement etc. perhaps the protesters could move to Greece and offer their solidarity right at the heart
of the matter. It would at least be warmer.

All doubtlessly true left wingers to a person (nearly typed "man"), expecting to live beyond their means at someone
else's expense, just like Greece!

Report 60022Mallard
9 Feb 2015 16:36

Until Greece exits the Euro the same situation will keep repeating itself as Greek productivity lags that of Germany, 5
which underpins the Euro. 6

Perhaps Mrs Merkel should offer that Germany leaves the Euro along with anyone else who wishes to go with them.
France would automatically be excluded as it has no hope of living in a strong currency group. 14 years on from the Euro
has shown that for them, steadily slipping down the slippery slope to Club Med membership!

Report FourtyTwo
9 Feb 2015 16:39

I think that many commentators like the idea of a poker game, a stand-off, a duel, a David vs Goliath. Has it occurred to14
you that Varoufakis was not really the Maverick (Hollywood poker player) you are portraying but that he was actually 15
sincere? His proposal on the bond swap has been around for months before he was elected FinMin and that is exactly
what he proposed. When this offer was met with the completely intransigent stance that Germany took from the start and
refuses to relax until now, then the Greek government was left with no other choice than all out confrontation because
their mandate did not allow them the full about face that Germany demands and Germany knew that all along.

And no, you will not get a Papademos-type puppet government this time mein herren unless you invade or instigate
some coup that the whole world will watch. Syriza has the support of 72% of the Greek people and will continue to have
it even with the drachma. Germany will have to kick out Greece from the EZ with a bang, not a whimper, and take full
responsibility for it. And despite still having some money in the bank I say BRING IT ON! Let's get this ugly thing over
with. Let each side suffer the consequences.

carpediem1 FourtyTwo
Report
The bond swap was meant with the response it warranted, it was a stupid idea and an attempt to hide a breach of 9
contract, a default as something creative. 10

FourtyTwo carpediem1
Report
V claims that it would be beneficial for everybody and I believe him. Okay then, stick to "the contract" and be prepared to6
lose everything. When you want it all you may end up getting nothing, or even less. 7

Report GCharlie
9 Feb 2015 16:42

Greece can't and never will be able to repay it's debt mountain. 3

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

4
My guess is what Syriza would really like is a repayment moratorium of (say) five years while they 'try to sort out there
economy', start collecting taxes etc.

Of course they won't succeed, then they'll default on the debt. Probably not long before a further election which they'll
win on the basis that they've just stuck one in Germany's and the troika's eye which the electorate will love. And on into a
brave new world they'll wend their merry way!

MickGJ GCharlie
Report
Greece can't and never will be able to repay it's debt mountain. 7
8
No-one's gong to repay anyone's debt mountain: it's about restoring credit worthiness, not repaying debt. Once debt is
down to a reasonable proportion of GDP it ceases to be an issue. The Greek economy returned to growth last year--until
Syriza stepped in there was a reasonable chance that growth would carry a lot of the burden of reducing the GDP/debt
ration.
God alone knows what will happen now.

KatieL GCharlie
Report
"My guess is what Syriza would really like is a repayment moratorium of (say) five years while they 'try to sort out there 2
economy', start collecting taxes etc." 3

Well, that's kind of what the previous governments said as well.

Dimitris Esi MickGJ


Report
"reasonable proportion of GDP" 3
4

Show 4 more replies


Report
carpediem1
9 Feb 2015 16:48

Austerity has proven to be the savoir of the Europe just as it has in the U.S. because actually austerity simply translates 3
into living within your means, of managing a sustainable and rational budget of income vs expenditure. 4

catburglar carpediem1
Report
I have read that software is getting to the point where is can be keyworded to produce automatic responses -- the old 5
"David Broder" foreign policy text-writing software was an example. Now I see we have it in economics! 6

JD9999 carpediem1
Report
This is uneducated nonsense, you understand? 3
4
annamarinja carpediem1
Report
Oh yes, Dickensian arrangement: the super-rich teaching the hard-working poor how to dress modestly. 5
6
Show 3 more replies
Report
catburglar
9 Feb 2015 16:50

Reducing this complex political bargain with many more players than just the Greek government v. EU/EMU et al is one 3
of the tender-minded conceits of applying economic analysis to places it doesn't belong. Characterizing Varoufakis's 4
position as holding a gun to his own head is averting one's eyes from reality: the loans can't be paid back under Troika
policy -- the gun has been held to Greece's head for years now. They have little to lose.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

Varoufakis's flexibility has a larger audience -- the publics within the EMU who are watching to see if it is an organization
designed to produce mutual benefit or if it is a slave auction.

As ever, it is amusing to read certain projection from an economist in an essentially uncertain situation.

MickGJ catburglar
Report
the loans can't be paid back under Troika policy 6
7
Troika policy doesn't demand repayment in full: just an ongoing normalisation of the situation until Greece can borrow on
its own account again.
Panagiotis Atmatzidis MickGJ
Report
Good Evening, 4
5
I didn't see any normalisation occurring the last 6 years in Greece. If anything things got worst: The debt went from 128%
to 180% of GDP. Add to that the humanitarian crisis. I wouldn't define that as a "normalisation". Looks more like a water-
boarding.

Report nursinggardener
9 Feb 2015 16:53

It is between a rock and a hard place. Greece though has almost nothing left to lose Germany though has a lot more to 3
lose. If Germany give way then up comes Spain and makes demands but if they stay hard and intransigent then Greece4
can default and the Euro is in dissarray or could collapse. Whichever way it goes it is sure to end badly there is no way
to kick the can down the road this time though this has usually been the way in the past.

Report nursinggardener
MickGJ
It is between a rock and a hard place. Greece though has almost nothing left to lose Germany though has a lot more to 6
lose. 7

In poker terms Greece is "short-stacked". They have very little left to lose because they have very little.
Germany has more to lose, but also a lot more on top of that. Were Greece to go "all in" Germany could match the bet
and still have plenty of chips left to continue the game. Probably with Greece's few remaining chips added to the pile--it's
not that hard to spot a bluff when it's your opponent's only option.

Report MickGJ
kizbot
Contributor
that depends on how much theyre actually bluffing. 2
3
Report MickGJ
hugin1
Germany has more to lose, but also a lot more on top of that. Were Greece to go "all in" Germany could match the bet 0
and still have plenty of chips left to continue the game. Probably with Greece's few remaining chips added to the pile--it's
1
not that hard to spot a bluff when it's your opponent's only option.

Politics doesn't work like poker. In politics all chips are in the pile from the beginning. Germany have an enormous stack
of chips in the pile, Greece very few. No more chips will be added in the course of play. Germany is interested in playing
it safe.... the opposite of going all in. They will certainly not get the whole stack, but they will make sure they don't lose
the whole stack either. OTOH, Greece can gain from going all in.

Show 1 more reply


Report
duke_widin

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

9 Feb 2015 16:54

Austerity in Germany seems to have worked differently, the financial year 14/15 brought biggest export figures ever, a 7
government in the plus with its budget and the biggest tax collection ever ..... 8
perhaps that's why the put the benefits up in Germany so people have more to spend and companies pay more taxes

kimdriver duke_widin
Report
If you run a trade surplus, domestic austerity is possible because you are effectively consuming the external stimulus 11
exercised by your trading partners. Their governments and private sectors go into debt, and yours' goes into surplus. 12

duke_widin kimdriver
Report
true, but economy is not a science 2
3
andr3wuk duke_widin
Report
...and at the same time, austerity in weaker European nations is killing their economies, making the Euro weaker, 4
making German exports stronger, making Germany richer. Why on earth would Germany ease up on its insistence of 5
austerity in the rest of Europe? It benefits them hugely.

Show 7 more replies


Report
loftylighthouse
9 Feb 2015 16:57

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by our community standards. Replies may also be
deleted. For more detail see our FAQs.
Daniel Alexander Jost
9 Feb 2015 16:58

This is a very sober but nevertheless accurate assessment of the current situation. Bravo! Syriza must not prevail. 4
5
Report JD9999
9 Feb 2015 17:03

The only other possibility, if and when Greek banks start collapsing, would be an exit from the euro. 3
4
That would not be a loss for Greece but a win. Greece is disserved by the euro.

Report
RegLaCrisp JD9999
So why don't they (politicians or the Greek people) want to leave the euro? 4
5
Report RegLaCrisp
JD9999
I imagine some Greek politicians do want to leave the euro. As for the public, I assume it is because they don't 2
understand the relationship between the structure of the euro monetary union and their current economic predicament, 3
i.e., they don't understand that the eurozone itself is a root cause of the depression.

Report RegLaCrisp
BrazilR
Presumably because they remember the drachma, a very weak currency that spent its entire life devaluing. Did result in2
the cheap holiday to Greece for the rest of Europe though.... 3

Show 14 more replies


Report
RISClives

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

9 Feb 2015 17:13

Who is the culprit? Varoufakis or Stephen Green? Who is to blame? 1


2
annamarinja RISClives
Report
Have you ever heard about Vampire Squid? 0
1
Report Alexandra_Aleshina
9 Feb 2015 17:14

Germany has set a very high standard for all EU countries, and refuses to make concessions to countries that are 4
unable to withstand such harsh standard. I do not think it could lead to something good. 5

Report
andyholmes Alexandra_Aleshina
"Germany has set a very high standard for all EU countries, and refuses to make concessions to countries that are 6
unable to withstand such harsh standard." 7

In actual fact, without a fiscal union, the standards were far too lax.

This was an EU political construct, to give the illusion of fiscal independence within a currency union. Germany wanted
stricter conditions, which would have avoided much of this happening in the first place.

It's the member states that took full advantage of those extremely lax standards, who are in trouble now.

Report Celi77
9 Feb 2015 17:23

"Varoufakiss idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger." SPOT6
ON! 7

Report Celi77
MickGJ
To be fair, he is standing on a very expensive carpet. 9
10
Report
pebkac7291 MickGJ
To be fair, he is standing on a very expensive carpet. 4
5
Haha. Or another way of saying it: "That's a rather nice currency you have there Angela. It would be a terrible shame if it
were to accidentally catch fire."

Report
GordonGecko Celi77
"Varoufakiss idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger." 1
2
Well, it worked in 'Blazing Saddles'...

Report
1 2 3 4 5

View more comments

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

popular

in business across the guardian

Live
1 / Greek bailout: US urges Athens to agree a deal - as it happened
2
Analysis / Will Greece's creditors choose to ease up on austerity?
3
UK employment rate hits highest level since records began
4
Greece to seek loan extension under pressure from eurozone
5
Rolls-Royce to make off-road vehicle (but don't call it an SUV)
6
Explosion at Exxon refinery in California spews ash and bursts windows
7
Analysis / UK unemployment figures: what the economists say
8
Analysis / Unemployment is down but the rise in earnings is only due to bonuses
9
Greece set to apply for loan extension as pressure for deal mounts as it happened
10
Monsoon chief executive John Browett to step down

Advertisement

More stories from around the web Promoted content by Outbrain


This Is What 500 Years of Female Optical Illusions - Dance Style Valentines Day Gift Guide
Portraits in Under 3 Minutes Looks Goodnet Shopping Blitz Blog
Like [VIDEO]
Goodnet

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]
Greece is playing to lose the debt crisis poker game | Business | The Guardian

San Francisco For Families The Best Of The East Bay, Beautiful Code?
AFAR Oakland/Berkeley Oren Ellenbogen's Blog
AFAR

Recommended by

back to top

UK worldsportfootball opinionculture lifestylefashion environment techmoneytravel

economyeurozone crisis
about us
membership contact us
jobs complaints & corrections
dating terms & conditions
masterclasses privacy policy
subscribe cookie policy
all topics securedrop
all contributors
2015 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Allrightsreserved.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[18.02.2015 22:18:27]

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen