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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality and Reliability Engineering

Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning


Basic Principles

A/P Tse Man Siu


Tel : 6790-4843
Email : emstse@ntu.edu.sg

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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality and Reliability Engineering

Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning and


Accelerated Testing (15 hours)

- Product Quality and Reliability,


- Statistical aspect of reliability.
- Exponential distribution.
- Weibull distribution.
- Normal and lognormal distribution, gamma distribution.
- Reliability planning, Confidence interval.
- Application of multiple censored data analysis.
- Statistical modeling of accelerated stress testing and degradation process.
- Potential pitfall of accelerated life testing from reliability statistics perspective.
- Reliability of Systems.
- Acceleration Lift Test and Acceleration Degradation Test.
- Burn-In Tests.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning


Basic Principles

Introduction
Basics of Probability
The quality of a product
The meaning of quality
Product specification Performance characteristics
Statistical analysis
Performance statistics vs. product specification
The reliability of a product
The meaning of reliability
Practical reliability definitions
Probability distributions
Instantaneous failure rate
Hazard rate function
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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning


Basic Principles

Introduction
The reliability of engineering systems has become an important
factor during their planning, design, and operation.
The factors include high acquisition cost, increasing number of
reliability-related lawsuits, complex and sophisticated systems,
competition, public pressures, and the past well-publicized
system failures.
Over the past 60 years, many new advances have been made in
the field of reliability that help to produce reliable systems.
The importance of quality in business and industry has increased
to a level greater than ever before.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning


Basic Principles

Introduction
Factors such as growing demand from customers for better
quality, the global economy, and the complexity and
sophistication of products have played an instrumental role in
increasing this importance.
The cost of quality control accounts for roughly 710% of the
total sales revenue of manufacturers.
Today, the industrial sector is faced with many quality-related
challenges. Some of these are the rising cost of quality, the
Internet economy, an alarming rate of increase in customer
quality-related requirements, and the need for improvements in
methods and practices associated with quality-related activities.
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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning


Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Types of Events
Independent Events
These are events that are not related in any way.
Occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of occurrence of another event.
Mutually Exclusive Events
These are events that cannot happen at the same time.
The occurrence of one event prohibits the other event.
Simultaneous Events
Events which happen at the same time.
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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Simultaneous Events Product Rule
Let A and B be independent events which are non-mutually
exclusive.
Let PA (PB) be the probability that event A (B) occurs.

Venn diagram for 2 independent


events A and B; shaded region
denotes probability of simultaneous
occurrence of both events.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Occurrence of at least one of several events

Note: For mutually exclusive events, PA OR B = PA + PB, since PA x PB = 0


In general, for N independent events, occurrence of at least one

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Rare Events Approximation
In general, the probability of simultaneous events is very
small.
For N independent non-exclusive events, we may
approximate the probability of occurrence of at least
one of several events as

Example: If PA = PB = 0.1, PAPB = 0.01;

which gives only a 5% error.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Binomial Distribution (BD)
A discrete probability distribution
Applies to situations where n independent trials are made
and there are only 2 possible outcomes to each trial.
Example: When a coin is tossed 10 times, BD could be used to
calculate the probability of getting heads 4x or tails 6x.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Basics of Probability
Binomial Distribution (BD)
In reliability context, R typically denotes the probability of
survival (reliability) and F denotes the probability of failure.

The 1st term Rn represents the probability of n survivals in n


trials

The 2nd term nR n 1F - Probability of n 1 survivals in n trials

The jth term nCjRn jFj Probability of n j survivals in n trials


etc.

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Introduction
Basics of Probability

The quality of a product


The meaning of quality
Product specification Performance characteristics
Statistical analysis
Performance statistics vs. product specification

The reliability of a product


The meaning of reliability
Practical reliability definitions
Probability distributions
Instantaneous failure rate
Hazard rate function
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Quality & Reliability


Major concern in the manufactured products
and the services.

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Quality of a Product
Continuous characteristics (Objective)
Can take any value within a given range; can be established by
independent measurement
Example: Urban fuel consumption of a typical car can be any value
between 10-15 km/litre.
Discrete characteristics (Subjective)
Reserved for less tangible features; decision varies from customer to
customer
Example: Visual appeal of a car (5) Excellent; (4) Good; (3) Satisfactory;
(2) Unsatisfactory; (1) Repulsive
Binary characteristics
Can either take the value of 0 or 1
Example: This model of the car has a built-in GPS while another model
does not have.
Need not be subjective (Example: Ability/inability of the car to start the
first time).

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Quality of a Product
Product specifications
Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product
performance.
Specifications of an engineering product are made in terms of a set of
target values for a selected set of continuous characteristics.

Typical performance targets of a family car:

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Quality of a Product
Random effects
Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product
Components of a system/product, manufacturing processes, operating
conditions cannot be exactly the same.
Random variations in the input parameters would of course affect the
performance targets.
Besides target values, it is a norm to also specify the tolerance limits of
the target values.
Example: The resistance of a resistor is specified in terms of a target value
(e.g. 10 k) and a tolerance limit (5 %).

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Simplistic View of Quality Assurance

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Quality of a Product
Statistical Analysis
Sampling process for knowing the actual random variation in a
given performance characteristic in relation to its target value
and tolerance limit.
Mathematical process involving the calculation of the mean,
standard deviation, probability, probability density function
(pdf) and confidence interval of a given performance
characteristic.

Mean: Standard Deviation:


(a measure of spread of pdf)

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Quality of a Product

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Quality of a Product
Gaussian Probability Density Function:
Also known as normal PDF
Most commonly adopted

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Standard Normal Distribution

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Standard Normal Distribution

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Standard Normal Distribution

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Quality of a Product

and are the test (sampled) mean and SD value


XT and are the target and tolerance for the product
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Quality of a Product

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=1

= 0.25

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EE6602 Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning Basic Principles

Introduction
Basics of Probability
The quality of a product
The meaning of quality
Product specification Performance characteristics
Statistical analysis
Performance statistics vs. product specification

The reliability of a product


The meaning of reliability
Practical reliability definitions
Probability distributions
Instantaneous failure rate
Hazard rate function

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Reliability of a Product
Becomes important only after the product has been tested and the
performance characteristics satisfy all the specifications, i.e.
{ xT } and { }, i.e. after the product has been placed in service.
Meaning of reliability
The reliability R of a product can thus be defined as the
probability that it continues to meet the specifications, over a
given period, subject to given environmental conditions.
The unreliability F of a product is the probability that the
product fails to meet the specifications.

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Some Notes..
Quality and Reliability are related but are different..
Quality is a concern during manufacturing.
Reliability is a concern during operation, i.e. ability of the
product to retain its quality over time.
Time t is always the variable of interest in product reliability
A product can only have high quality if it also has high reliability
(high quality during manufacturing is of no use if it is lost
quickly).
A product with high reliability need not have high quality (it
may be merely maintaining low quality over a long period of
time).

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Mean-time-to-failure (MTTF)
Mean failure rate ()

Mean-time-between-failures (MBTF)
Mean down time (MDT)
Mean failure rate ()
Availability, Unavailability
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Failure: Types and Prediction


Two types of failures:
1. Sudden failure (no indicators): Stress exceeds strength .
2. Degradation (gradual wear out): degradation indicator such as
crack growth, change of resistance, corrosion,
This is ideal for Condition-Based Maintenance

Failure prediction:
1. Analysis of field data at normal conditions
2. Accelerated life testing
3. Accelerated degradation testing
4. other testing

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Types of Products/Systems :
Repairable and Non-Repairable
Non-repairable systems: satellites, ICs
Repairable systems: autos, appliances

Maximum Reliability level

With R
epairs
Reliability

N o R ep
airs

Time

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Reliability Characteristics
Non-Repairable Systems:
TTF Time To Failure
Reliability=Availability
Failure Rate -- F(t)
MTTF (Mean Time To Failure)
MTFF (Mean Time To First Failure)
MRL (Mean Residual Life)
Repairable Systems:
Availability .No Reliability Functions
Failure Rate and Repair Rate
MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure)
MTTR (Mean Time To Repair)
MRL (Mean Residual Life --- Economic Justification)

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Non-Repairable Systems or Devices


Reliability is a time dependent characteristic. It is bound
between 0 and 1.
It can only be determined after an elapsed time but
can be predicted at any time.
It is the probability that a product or service will
operate properly for a specified period of time (design
life) under the design operating conditions without
failure.
Formal definition of reliability (BS4778) : The ability of
an item to perform a required function under stated
conditions for a stated period of time.

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Non-Repairable System
Reliability Function

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Reliability of System or Product

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Reliability of System or Product

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Non-Repairable Systems -- MTTF and MTFF


Mean Time To Failure (MTTF):
It is the average time that elapses until a failure occurs.
It does not provide information about the distribution of
the TTF, hence we need to estimate the variance of the TTF.

Mean Time To First Failure (MTFF):


In many situations such as the case of medical devices or
implants, we are interested in the time to first failure (mean
time to first failure and its standard deviation). This can be
estimated through numerical simulation or approximated
for simple distributions.

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Non-Repairable Systems
Failure Rate and Hazard Rate
Failure Rate (FITs : failures in 109 hours):
The failure rate in a time interval [ ] is the probability
that a failure per unit time occurs in the interval given
that no failure has occurred prior to the beginning of the
interval. It could be constant, decreasing, increasing

Hazard Rate:
It is the limit of the failure rate as the length of the
interval approaches zero.

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Non-Repairable Systems --- MRL


Mean Residual Life (MRL):
It is the expected remaining life, T-t, given that the
product, component, or a system has survived to time t.

=
=

1
=
()

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Repairable Systems --- Availability

Availability is used for repairable systems

It is the probability that the system is


operational at any random time t.

It can also be specified as a proportion of time


that the system is available for use in a given
interval (0,T).

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Repairable Systems --- MTBF and MTTR


Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF): It is the average time
between successive failures (TBF Time Between Failure).

Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) : It is the average repair time.


To Calculate the availability, need to determine the time to
failure distribution and the repair time distribution.
Both are used to obtain the availability,
Steady-state availability
Average availability
Mission availability

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Repairable Systems --- MTBF and MTTR

Steady State Availability

Bound by 1 and no lower value limit.


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Reliability of System or Product

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Reliability of System or Product

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Reliability of System or Product

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Reliability of System or Product

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Reliability Distribution and


Measurement

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Probability density function -- pdf


Cumulative Distribution Function -- cdf
Failure density function -- f(t)
Failure Distribution Function -- F(t)
Reliability Function R(t)
Hazard Rate h(t)
Failure Rate h(t)
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Distribution Function and Probability Density Function


Probability Density Function (pdf) Histogram :

showing frequency of the


Continuous curve of probability versus
measureable values
the continuous random variable values.
Area under the curve of distribution is Convert to probability by
given by normalizing to the total
= sample or population size

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Probability Density Function (pdf) Cumulative Density Function (cdf)


= =

The probability of a value falling between any two values x1 and x2 is the area
bounded by this interval, i.e.
< < = ()

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Lifetime Distribution Models


The theoretical population models used to describe
device lifetimes are known as Lifetime Distribution
Models.

The population is generally considered to be all of the


possible unit lifetimes for all of the units that could be
manufactured based on a particular design and choice of
materials and manufacturing process.

A random sample of size n from this population is the


collection of failure times observed for a randomly
selected group of n units.
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Lifetime Distribution Models


A lifetime distribution model (or sometimes called the failure
distribution model) can be any probability density function (or pdf)
f(t) defined over the range of time from t=0,,.
The corresponding cumulative distribution function (cdf) -- F(t)
gives the probability that a randomly selected unit will fail by time t.

The figure in next slide shows the relationship between f(t) and F(t)
and gives three descriptions of F(t).

Note that the pdf f(t) has only non-negative values and eventually
either becomes 0 as t increases, or decreases towards 0.

In reliability since we are usual discussing time we will change x to


t, i.e. f(t).

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Lifetime Distribution Models

1. F(t) = the area under the pdf f(t) to the left of t.


2. F(t) = the probability that a single randomly chosen new unit will
fail by time t.
3. F(t) = the proportion of the entire population that fails by time t.
It is also called the Unreliability or Failure Distribution Function.
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Reliability Function
The cdf F(t) is monotonically increasing and goes from 0 to 1 as t
approaches infinity. In other words, the total area under the f(t)
curve is always 1.
The cumulative distribution function or cdf, F(t), gives the
probability that a measured value will fall between - and t, i.e.

Cumulative Distribution Function


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Reliability Function

Assumption: New item -- device/unit/system


T=Failure time, random variable because we do not
know when an item will fail
Probability density function of failure time, fT(t) or f(t).
Units: # of failures per unit time
Reliability function, R(t) = probability that the item
will work properly at time t
Failure Distribution Function, F(t) = probability that
the item will fail by time t

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Notation
Probability density function, fT(t) or f(t)
T random variable (in this case it is the
component life)
t value that the random variable assumes
f(t)=fT(t)=limt0 P(t<T t+ t)/ t

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Reliability Function
Reliability is defined as the probability that an item is
functioning at one particular time.
Hence, one way to represent reliability is to show the
probability of product survival at different time.
This leads to Survivor Function S(t) or Reliability
Function R(t) given as
S(t) = R(t)=P[T > t ] t > 0.

It is assumed that S(t)=1 for all t<0, implying that


they are good to start with.

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Reliability Function
There are two interpretations of the survivor
function.
First, S(t) is the probability that an individual item
is functioning at time t.
Second, if there is a large population of items with
identically distributed lifetimes, S(t) is the
expected fraction of the population that is
functioning at time t.

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Reliability Function and Failure Distribution


Function Estimation
Reliability indicates the probability for functioning
correctly without failure until time .
When samples from the same population are tested
under the same conditions, if the cumulative number of
failures occurring till time is denoted as (),
then the Reliability , is given by
()
=

Failure Distribution Function (Unreliability) : ()
()
=

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Reliability Function

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Reliability Function

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Reliability Function


Probability of Failure : = = =

Probability of Success (or Survival) : = = ( = )

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Reliability Function
Since a unit either fails, or survives, and one of
these two mutually exclusive alternatives
must occur, we have
R(t) = 1 - F(t), F(t) = 1 - R(t), R(t) + F(t) =1

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Reliability Function
The survivor function
is useful for comparing
the survival patterns
of several populations
of items.

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Conditional Reliability Function

1.0

0.9

Conditional S(t)
0.8

0.7
S(t)

S(t)
0.6

0.5

The conditional survivor 0.4


function, ST/Ta(t), is the
survivor function of an 0.3
0 2 4 6 8 10

item given that it has been Time to Failure

functioning at time a:
P{T t and T a ] P[T t ] S ( t )
ST / T a ( t ) ta
P[T a ] P[T a ] S (a )

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Reliability Function
The conditional survivor function is useful for
comparing the survival experience of a group of items
that has survived to time a.
Examples include manufactured items surviving a
burn-in test and cancer patients surviving 5 years after
diagnosis and treatment.
The conditional survivor function is of particular
interest to actuaries. For example, if a 43-year-old
woman is purchasing a 1-year term life insurance
policy, an estimate of S T/T43(44) is required to
determine an appropriate premium for the policy.

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Reliability Function
F (t ) P(T t )
R(t ) P(T t )
FT (t ) 1 R(t )
() ()
= =


=
Relationship of f(t), F(t) and R(t)

=

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Hazard Function
Another way to represent product reliability is to look at
its failure rate, or hazard rate. The rate is a function of
time, and it is expressed as hazard function.
The hazard function or failure rate, h(t), is the most
popular representations for reliability due to its intuitive
interpretation as the amount of risk associated with an
item at time t.
A second reason for its popularity is its usefulness in
comparing the way risks change over time for several
populations of items by plotting their hazard functions
on a single axis.

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Hazard Function
The hazard function goes by several aliases:
in reliability it is also known as the hazard rate or failure rate;
in actuarial science it is known as the force of mortality or
force of decrement.

Failure Rate (FR) in a time interval [t1, t2] is defined as the


probability per unit time that a failure occurs in the time interval
given that no failure has occurred prior to t1,
1 (2 ) ( + )
= =
2 1 (1 ) ()

Hazard rate h(t) is defined as the limit of the failure rate as t


approaches zero.

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Hazard Function
( + ) 1
= lim = ()
0 () ()

f (t ) f (t ) dF (t ) / dt
h(t )
S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )
All hazard functions must satisfy two conditions:

= 0 0
0

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Hazard Function
Example: A distribution with survivor function given as
( t ) k
S( t ) e t 0
Find its hazard function. ()
= =

Solution:
Differentiating the survivor function with respect to t and
negating, the probability density function is

and the hazard function is

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Hazard Function
For the hazard function, if =1, we have the
plot of the function for different values of .

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Hazard Function
Generally, three type of hazard functions can be found in products:
Increasing hazard function (IFR)
Decreasing hazard function (DFR)
Bathtub-shaped hazard function

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Hazard Function
The units on a hazard function or failure rate (hazard
rate) are typically given as failures per unit time.
Manufactured items are often so reliable that to avoid
hazard functions such as h(t) = 0.00000128 failures per
hour, the units are changed so that the hazard function
may be expressed as h(t) = 1.28 failures per 106 hours.
Another way to avoid writing too many leading zeroes
is to change the units to years, where 1 year equals
8760 hours.
Still another way is to use FIT (failure in time): 1 failure
in 109 hours or 1 failure per trillion device for 1000
hours

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Failure Rate Units for electronic devices

FIT :
Failure in Time or
Failure in Trillion for 1000 Hours
-- Failure in billion hours

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Cumulative Hazard Function


Another lifetime distribution representation is the
Cumulative Hazard Function H(t) defined as

= 0
0.

The cumulative hazard function is also known as the


integrated hazard function. All cumulative hazard
functions must satisfy three conditions:
= = is non-decreasing

The cumulative hazard function is valuable for Monte


Carlo simulation

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Cumulative Hazard Function


f (t ) f (t ) f (t )
h(t )
S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )
f (t ) 1
H (t ) h(t )dt dt d ( F (t ))
1 F (t ) 1 F (t )

H (t ) ln[1 F (t )] ln(S (t ))

For small F (t ) :
= 0

H (t ) F (t )
= = ()

= 1 = 1 ()

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Relationships among reliability functions


= 0
= = ()
= 1 = 1 ()
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Average Hazard Function


The average hazard rate between time t1 and t2 is
t2

h(t )dt H (t 2 ) H (t1 ) ln R(t1 ) ln R(t 2 )


AHR(t1 , t 2 )
t1

t 2 t1 t 2 t1 t 2 t1

and can be viewed as a typical hazard rate value over


the interval.
If F(t2)-F(t1) is small (less than 0.1), then
F (t 2 ) F (t1 )
AHR(t1 , t 2 )
t 2 t1

If t in hrs, units are fail percentage per hour


Multiply by 109 for units in FIT

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Average Hazard Function


An importance special case when t1=0, then
H (t ) F (t )
AHR(t )
t t

AHR can be interpreted as the approximate fraction


failing per unit time over the specified interval.

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Average Hazard Function


Example a manufacturer of a particular IC device claims that
the devices hazard function is as follow with t measured in units
of hours.
7 0.8
h( t ) 1.8 10 t

From the hazard function, we have the FIT rate for this
population of components is 180 FITs at 1 hr and is 0.1136 FITs
at 10,000 hrs. The average hazard rate to 10,000 hrs is

1.8 x10 7 t 0.2


H ( 10 ,000 )
10 ,000
0.568 FITs
0.2 x10 ,000

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Summary
R(t ) S (t ) f (t ) f (t ) f (t )
h(t )
F (t ) 1 S (t ) S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )
dF (t ) H (t ) ln[S (t )] ln[ R(t )]
f (t )
dt

= 0

= = ()

= 1 = 1 ()
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Example

Given the density function


f ( x) ax, 0 x 10

(a) Determine the value of a that makes f(x) a


valid density function, (b) determine the
mean and variance of the distribution, and
(c) derive expressions for the reliability and
hazard functions.

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Example (contd)
Solution
For the density function to be valid, the area under
the curve must equal one. Thus,
10 a 2 10
a( x)dx 1 ( x ) 0 a 1 / 50
0 2
The mean and variance of this distribution are
x 10 1
E ( x) x dx (10)3 6.667
0 50 150
10 1
V ( x) E ( x ) x 3dx (6.667) 2 5.55
2 2

0 50

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Example (contd)

The reliability function is


10 1 x2
R( x) d 1 , 0 x 10
x 50 100

The hazard function is


1
x
f ( x) 50 2x
h( x ) , 0 x 10
R( x) x 2
100 x 2
1
100

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Example
Given the hazard function
h( x) c, x 0
Determine the reliability function and the
probability density function
x
Solution cd
cx
R( x) e 0
e ,x0
The reliability function is
The probability density function is
cx
f ( x) h( x) R( x) ce ,x 0
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Moments, Percentiles and Fractiles


Looking for a single number to represent the
reliability data instead of a distribution
Moments and fractiles contain less information than
a lifetime distribution representation, but they are
often useful ways to represent the distribution of a
random lifetime.
Examples of these performance measures include
the mean time to failure, E(T), the median time, t0.5
and the 95th percentile of a distribution, t0.95.

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Moments and Fractiles


The most common measure associated with a
distribution is its mean, or first moment,

where the last equality is proved using


integration by parts and is based on the
assumption that

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Moments and Fractiles


Another value associated with a distribution is its
variance, or second moment about the mean,

One drawback of using the variance or standard


deviation to measure the dispersion of a distribution
is that these quantities depend on the scale (for
example, hours or minutes) of measurement used.
One way to overcome this scale problem is to consider
the coefficient of variation
which is dimensionless.

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Moments and Fractiles


Fractiles/Percentiles
Fractiles of a distribution are the times to which a
specified proportion of the items survives. The
definition of the pth fractile of a distribution, tp (often
called the pth quantile or 100pth percentile) satisfies

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Moments and Fractiles (example)


Q:The exponential distribution has survivor function,
t
S (t ) e
Find the mean and variance of the distribution.

Ans: The mean can be found by integrating the


survivor function from 0 to infinity

E T S (t )dt
1
0

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Moments and Fractiles (example)


Since the probability density function is
t
f (t ) S ' (t ) e for t 0

t
the second moment is 2
ET 2 2
f (t )dt
0 2
using integration by parts twice. Hence, the variance is

V T E T
2
ET
2 2

2
2

1
2

1
2

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Moments and Fractiles (example)


Finally the pth fractile of the distribution, , is found by solving

1 = for

1
= log(1 )

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Moments and Fractiles (example)

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Mean Life Function or Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)


The mean life function, which provides a measure of the average
time of operation to failure, is given by:

= = =
0
This is the expected or average time-to-failure and is denoted as
the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure).
MTTF is an index of reliability performance.
MTTF does not give any information on the failure distribution of
the component/device/system when dealing with most lifetime
distributions.
Vastly different distributions can have identical means, it is
unwise to use the MTTF as the sole measure of the reliability of a
component.

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Mean Life Function or Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)



By definition = = =
0 0 0
From individual
Experimental Data
1 n
MTTF ti
n i 1

1
2
Which distribution ,
R(t)

2 or 1, is better ?
1
Time t
0

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Medium Life and Modal Life


Median Life
Median life, , is the value of the random variable (TTF) that has exactly one-
half of the area under the pdf to its left and one-half to its right. It represents the
centroid of the distribution. The median is obtained by solving the following
equation for . (For individual data, the median is the midpoint value.)

= .

Modal Life (or Mode)


The modal life (or mode), is
the most likely observed failure time with
value that satisfies:
()
= =
<
For a continuous distribution, the mode is that value of that corresponds to the
maximum probability density (the value at which the pdf has its maximum value,
or the peak of the curve).

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Medium Life and Modal Life


Median Life
Median life, , is the value of the random variable (TTF) that has exactly one-
half of the area under the pdf to its left and one-half to its right. It represents
the centroid of the distribution. The median is obtained by solving the following
equation for . (For individual data, the median is the midpoint value.)

= .

Modal Life (or Mode)


The modal life (or mode), , is the value of that satisfies:
()
=

For a continuous distribution, the mode is that value of that corresponds to


the maximum probability density (the value at which the pdf has its maximum
value, or the peak of the curve).

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Early Failure Region --- Burn-In Failure region


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Semiconductor Devices - Bathtube Failure Curve

Semiconductor
Devices are
typical Non-
Repairable
systems

Failure rates are often used as an index for reliability. A failure rate indicates
how often a failure occurs per unit time, and failure-rate values generally
change over time as shown in the graph:

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SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICE LIFE STAGES
Early failure stage:
- failures occur at a high rate following the initial
operation
- failure rate declines rapidly over time:
potential failures that could not be screened in
fabrication fail in a short time if stress such as
temperature or voltage is applied, as:
- micro particles collecting on the wafer
- material defects
- photolithography defects
- oxide damage during the fabrication process, etc.
Expectations: memory devices: 1-5 PPM, ASICS,
microprocessors: less than 20 PPM,
consumer devices: below 2-300 PPM
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SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICE LIFE STAGES
Random failure stage:
- After early failures are eliminated, the failure rate drops to an
extremely low value.
- Some failures randomly occurring after a long time, the failure
rate never decreases to zero.
- FR is almost constant because the failures occur sporadically.
Expectations: memory devices: 1-5 FITs, microprocessors: 5-20
FITs, ASICs: 20-30 FITs, consumer: below 100 FITs.

Wear-out failure stage:


- failures occur with increasing frequency over time and are
caused by age-related wear and fatigue, as:
- electronic metal migration
- oxide film destruction (TDDB)
- transistor wear out due to hot carrier damage.
Expectations:
consumer: 10 yrs or less, special applications: up to 50-100 yrs.
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Exponential Distribution

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Reliability Distribution

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Reliability Distribution

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Work Example 2 --- Lognormal Probability Plot

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Work Example 2 --- Lognormal Probability Plot

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Work Example 2 --- Lognormal Probability Plot

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Reliability Distribution

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Reliability Distribution

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Work Example 3 --- Weibull Distribution

Plotting Position

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Work Example 3 --- Weibull Distribution

Plotting Position

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Work Example 3 --- Weibull Distribution


Plotting Position

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Work Example 3 --- Weibull Distribution

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Work Example 4
The reliability of 1000 non-repairable components was
measured over a time interval of 50 000 hours. At the beginning
of the test, all components were working to specifications. The
cumulative number of failures as a function of time is given in
the table.
(a). Find reliability R and unreliability F as a function of time.
(b). Decide whether the data follows a Weibull distribution.
(c). Estimate the values of To, and .
(d). Find the probability of survival to 10 000 hours.
(e). Find an equation for the instantaneous hazard rate (t).
Is (t) decreasing, increasing or constant with time?
(f). Estimate the mean time to failure MTTF.

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Work Example 4 --- Solution

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Work Example 4 --- Solution

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Work Example 4 --- Solution

To = 0

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Work Example 4 --- Solution

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Work Example 4 --- Solution

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Summary of Equations of Reliability

Note : f(t) or p(t) for failure (probability) density function


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Units for measuring Failure Rate


Failure rates for components are often so small that units of failures per hour
would not be appropriate. Typical scales most often used for failure rate are:
%/K (Percent per thousand hours) : one percent per thousand hours
would mean an expected rate of 1 fail for each 100 units operating 1000 hour.
PPM/K (Parts per Million per thousand hours) : one PPM/K means
1 fail is expected out of 1 million components operating for 1000hrs.
PPM/K = FIT (Failure In Time) (another way to remember: Failure In
Trillion components operating for 1000 hours)

Failure Per Hour %/K FIT Failures per hour X 105 = %/K
0.00001 1.0 10,000 Failures per hour X 109 = FIT
0.000001 0.1 1,000 %/K X 104 = FIT
0.0000001 0.01 100
0.00000001 0.001 10
0.000000001 0.0001 1

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