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Basic Principles

Tel : 6790-4843

Email : emstse@ntu.edu.sg

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Accelerated Testing (15 hours)

- Statistical aspect of reliability.

- Exponential distribution.

- Weibull distribution.

- Normal and lognormal distribution, gamma distribution.

- Reliability planning, Confidence interval.

- Application of multiple censored data analysis.

- Statistical modeling of accelerated stress testing and degradation process.

- Potential pitfall of accelerated life testing from reliability statistics perspective.

- Reliability of Systems.

- Acceleration Lift Test and Acceleration Degradation Test.

- Burn-In Tests.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basic Principles

Introduction

Basics of Probability

The quality of a product

The meaning of quality

Product specification Performance characteristics

Statistical analysis

Performance statistics vs. product specification

The reliability of a product

The meaning of reliability

Practical reliability definitions

Probability distributions

Instantaneous failure rate

Hazard rate function

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 3

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basic Principles

Introduction

The reliability of engineering systems has become an important

factor during their planning, design, and operation.

The factors include high acquisition cost, increasing number of

reliability-related lawsuits, complex and sophisticated systems,

competition, public pressures, and the past well-publicized

system failures.

Over the past 60 years, many new advances have been made in

the field of reliability that help to produce reliable systems.

The importance of quality in business and industry has increased

to a level greater than ever before.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basic Principles

Introduction

Factors such as growing demand from customers for better

quality, the global economy, and the complexity and

sophistication of products have played an instrumental role in

increasing this importance.

The cost of quality control accounts for roughly 710% of the

total sales revenue of manufacturers.

Today, the industrial sector is faced with many quality-related

challenges. Some of these are the rising cost of quality, the

Internet economy, an alarming rate of increase in customer

quality-related requirements, and the need for improvements in

methods and practices associated with quality-related activities.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 5

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basic Principles

Basics of Probability

Types of Events

Independent Events

These are events that are not related in any way.

Occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not

affect the probability of occurrence of another event.

Mutually Exclusive Events

These are events that cannot happen at the same time.

The occurrence of one event prohibits the other event.

Simultaneous Events

Events which happen at the same time.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 6

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basics of Probability

Simultaneous Events Product Rule

Let A and B be independent events which are non-mutually

exclusive.

Let PA (PB) be the probability that event A (B) occurs.

events A and B; shaded region

denotes probability of simultaneous

occurrence of both events.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basics of Probability

Occurrence of at least one of several events

In general, for N independent events, occurrence of at least one

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basics of Probability

Rare Events Approximation

In general, the probability of simultaneous events is very

small.

For N independent non-exclusive events, we may

approximate the probability of occurrence of at least

one of several events as

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basics of Probability

Binomial Distribution (BD)

A discrete probability distribution

Applies to situations where n independent trials are made

and there are only 2 possible outcomes to each trial.

Example: When a coin is tossed 10 times, BD could be used to

calculate the probability of getting heads 4x or tails 6x.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Basics of Probability

Binomial Distribution (BD)

In reliability context, R typically denotes the probability of

survival (reliability) and F denotes the probability of failure.

trials

etc.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Introduction

Basics of Probability

The meaning of quality

Product specification Performance characteristics

Statistical analysis

Performance statistics vs. product specification

The meaning of reliability

Practical reliability definitions

Probability distributions

Instantaneous failure rate

Hazard rate function

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 12

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Major concern in the manufactured products

and the services.

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Quality of a Product

Continuous characteristics (Objective)

Can take any value within a given range; can be established by

independent measurement

Example: Urban fuel consumption of a typical car can be any value

between 10-15 km/litre.

Discrete characteristics (Subjective)

Reserved for less tangible features; decision varies from customer to

customer

Example: Visual appeal of a car (5) Excellent; (4) Good; (3) Satisfactory;

(2) Unsatisfactory; (1) Repulsive

Binary characteristics

Can either take the value of 0 or 1

Example: This model of the car has a built-in GPS while another model

does not have.

Need not be subjective (Example: Ability/inability of the car to start the

first time).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Quality of a Product

Product specifications

Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product

performance.

Specifications of an engineering product are made in terms of a set of

target values for a selected set of continuous characteristics.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Quality of a Product

Random effects

Continuous characteristics are the most useful for quantifying product

Components of a system/product, manufacturing processes, operating

conditions cannot be exactly the same.

Random variations in the input parameters would of course affect the

performance targets.

Besides target values, it is a norm to also specify the tolerance limits of

the target values.

Example: The resistance of a resistor is specified in terms of a target value

(e.g. 10 k) and a tolerance limit (5 %).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Quality of a Product

Statistical Analysis

Sampling process for knowing the actual random variation in a

given performance characteristic in relation to its target value

and tolerance limit.

Mathematical process involving the calculation of the mean,

standard deviation, probability, probability density function

(pdf) and confidence interval of a given performance

characteristic.

(a measure of spread of pdf)

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Quality of a Product

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Quality of a Product

Gaussian Probability Density Function:

Also known as normal PDF

Most commonly adopted

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Quality of a Product

XT and are the target and tolerance for the product

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 27

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Quality of a Product

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=1

= 0.25

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Introduction

Basics of Probability

The quality of a product

The meaning of quality

Product specification Performance characteristics

Statistical analysis

Performance statistics vs. product specification

The meaning of reliability

Practical reliability definitions

Probability distributions

Instantaneous failure rate

Hazard rate function

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability of a Product

Becomes important only after the product has been tested and the

performance characteristics satisfy all the specifications, i.e.

{ xT } and { }, i.e. after the product has been placed in service.

Meaning of reliability

The reliability R of a product can thus be defined as the

probability that it continues to meet the specifications, over a

given period, subject to given environmental conditions.

The unreliability F of a product is the probability that the

product fails to meet the specifications.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Some Notes..

Quality and Reliability are related but are different..

Quality is a concern during manufacturing.

Reliability is a concern during operation, i.e. ability of the

product to retain its quality over time.

Time t is always the variable of interest in product reliability

A product can only have high quality if it also has high reliability

(high quality during manufacturing is of no use if it is lost

quickly).

A product with high reliability need not have high quality (it

may be merely maintaining low quality over a long period of

time).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Mean-time-to-failure (MTTF)

Mean failure rate ()

Mean-time-between-failures (MBTF)

Mean down time (MDT)

Mean failure rate ()

Availability, Unavailability

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 37

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Two types of failures:

1. Sudden failure (no indicators): Stress exceeds strength .

2. Degradation (gradual wear out): degradation indicator such as

crack growth, change of resistance, corrosion,

This is ideal for Condition-Based Maintenance

Failure prediction:

1. Analysis of field data at normal conditions

2. Accelerated life testing

3. Accelerated degradation testing

4. other testing

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Types of Products/Systems :

Repairable and Non-Repairable

Non-repairable systems: satellites, ICs

Repairable systems: autos, appliances

With R

epairs

Reliability

N o R ep

airs

Time

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Characteristics

Non-Repairable Systems:

TTF Time To Failure

Reliability=Availability

Failure Rate -- F(t)

MTTF (Mean Time To Failure)

MTFF (Mean Time To First Failure)

MRL (Mean Residual Life)

Repairable Systems:

Availability .No Reliability Functions

Failure Rate and Repair Rate

MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure)

MTTR (Mean Time To Repair)

MRL (Mean Residual Life --- Economic Justification)

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability is a time dependent characteristic. It is bound

between 0 and 1.

It can only be determined after an elapsed time but

can be predicted at any time.

It is the probability that a product or service will

operate properly for a specified period of time (design

life) under the design operating conditions without

failure.

Formal definition of reliability (BS4778) : The ability of

an item to perform a required function under stated

conditions for a stated period of time.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Non-Repairable System

Reliability Function

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Mean Time To Failure (MTTF):

It is the average time that elapses until a failure occurs.

It does not provide information about the distribution of

the TTF, hence we need to estimate the variance of the TTF.

In many situations such as the case of medical devices or

implants, we are interested in the time to first failure (mean

time to first failure and its standard deviation). This can be

estimated through numerical simulation or approximated

for simple distributions.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Non-Repairable Systems

Failure Rate and Hazard Rate

Failure Rate (FITs : failures in 109 hours):

The failure rate in a time interval [ ] is the probability

that a failure per unit time occurs in the interval given

that no failure has occurred prior to the beginning of the

interval. It could be constant, decreasing, increasing

Hazard Rate:

It is the limit of the failure rate as the length of the

interval approaches zero.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Mean Residual Life (MRL):

It is the expected remaining life, T-t, given that the

product, component, or a system has survived to time t.

=

=

1

=

()

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

operational at any random time t.

that the system is available for use in a given

interval (0,T).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF): It is the average time

between successive failures (TBF Time Between Failure).

To Calculate the availability, need to determine the time to

failure distribution and the repair time distribution.

Both are used to obtain the availability,

Steady-state availability

Average availability

Mission availability

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 50

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Measurement

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Cumulative Distribution Function -- cdf

Failure density function -- f(t)

Failure Distribution Function -- F(t)

Reliability Function R(t)

Hazard Rate h(t)

Failure Rate h(t)

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 56

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Probability Density Function (pdf) Histogram :

Continuous curve of probability versus

measureable values

the continuous random variable values.

Area under the curve of distribution is Convert to probability by

given by normalizing to the total

= sample or population size

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

= =

The probability of a value falling between any two values x1 and x2 is the area

bounded by this interval, i.e.

< < = ()

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 58

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

The theoretical population models used to describe

device lifetimes are known as Lifetime Distribution

Models.

possible unit lifetimes for all of the units that could be

manufactured based on a particular design and choice of

materials and manufacturing process.

collection of failure times observed for a randomly

selected group of n units.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 59

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

A lifetime distribution model (or sometimes called the failure

distribution model) can be any probability density function (or pdf)

f(t) defined over the range of time from t=0,,.

The corresponding cumulative distribution function (cdf) -- F(t)

gives the probability that a randomly selected unit will fail by time t.

The figure in next slide shows the relationship between f(t) and F(t)

and gives three descriptions of F(t).

Note that the pdf f(t) has only non-negative values and eventually

either becomes 0 as t increases, or decreases towards 0.

t, i.e. f(t).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

2. F(t) = the probability that a single randomly chosen new unit will

fail by time t.

3. F(t) = the proportion of the entire population that fails by time t.

It is also called the Unreliability or Failure Distribution Function.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 61

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

The cdf F(t) is monotonically increasing and goes from 0 to 1 as t

approaches infinity. In other words, the total area under the f(t)

curve is always 1.

The cumulative distribution function or cdf, F(t), gives the

probability that a measured value will fall between - and t, i.e.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 62

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

T=Failure time, random variable because we do not

know when an item will fail

Probability density function of failure time, fT(t) or f(t).

Units: # of failures per unit time

Reliability function, R(t) = probability that the item

will work properly at time t

Failure Distribution Function, F(t) = probability that

the item will fail by time t

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Notation

Probability density function, fT(t) or f(t)

T random variable (in this case it is the

component life)

t value that the random variable assumes

f(t)=fT(t)=limt0 P(t<T t+ t)/ t

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

Reliability is defined as the probability that an item is

functioning at one particular time.

Hence, one way to represent reliability is to show the

probability of product survival at different time.

This leads to Survivor Function S(t) or Reliability

Function R(t) given as

S(t) = R(t)=P[T > t ] t > 0.

they are good to start with.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

There are two interpretations of the survivor

function.

First, S(t) is the probability that an individual item

is functioning at time t.

Second, if there is a large population of items with

identically distributed lifetimes, S(t) is the

expected fraction of the population that is

functioning at time t.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Function Estimation

Reliability indicates the probability for functioning

correctly without failure until time .

When samples from the same population are tested

under the same conditions, if the cumulative number of

failures occurring till time is denoted as (),

then the Reliability , is given by

()

=

Failure Distribution Function (Unreliability) : ()

()

=

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 67

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

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Reliability Function

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Reliability Function

Probability of Failure : = = =

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

Since a unit either fails, or survives, and one of

these two mutually exclusive alternatives

must occur, we have

R(t) = 1 - F(t), F(t) = 1 - R(t), R(t) + F(t) =1

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

The survivor function

is useful for comparing

the survival patterns

of several populations

of items.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

1.0

0.9

Conditional S(t)

0.8

0.7

S(t)

S(t)

0.6

0.5

function, ST/Ta(t), is the

survivor function of an 0.3

0 2 4 6 8 10

functioning at time a:

P{T t and T a ] P[T t ] S ( t )

ST / T a ( t ) ta

P[T a ] P[T a ] S (a )

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

The conditional survivor function is useful for

comparing the survival experience of a group of items

that has survived to time a.

Examples include manufactured items surviving a

burn-in test and cancer patients surviving 5 years after

diagnosis and treatment.

The conditional survivor function is of particular

interest to actuaries. For example, if a 43-year-old

woman is purchasing a 1-year term life insurance

policy, an estimate of S T/T43(44) is required to

determine an appropriate premium for the policy.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Function

F (t ) P(T t )

R(t ) P(T t )

FT (t ) 1 R(t )

() ()

= =

=

Relationship of f(t), F(t) and R(t)

=

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

Another way to represent product reliability is to look at

its failure rate, or hazard rate. The rate is a function of

time, and it is expressed as hazard function.

The hazard function or failure rate, h(t), is the most

popular representations for reliability due to its intuitive

interpretation as the amount of risk associated with an

item at time t.

A second reason for its popularity is its usefulness in

comparing the way risks change over time for several

populations of items by plotting their hazard functions

on a single axis.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

The hazard function goes by several aliases:

in reliability it is also known as the hazard rate or failure rate;

in actuarial science it is known as the force of mortality or

force of decrement.

probability per unit time that a failure occurs in the time interval

given that no failure has occurred prior to t1,

1 (2 ) ( + )

= =

2 1 (1 ) ()

approaches zero.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

( + ) 1

= lim = ()

0 () ()

f (t ) f (t ) dF (t ) / dt

h(t )

S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )

All hazard functions must satisfy two conditions:

= 0 0

0

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

Example: A distribution with survivor function given as

( t ) k

S( t ) e t 0

Find its hazard function. ()

= =

Solution:

Differentiating the survivor function with respect to t and

negating, the probability density function is

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

For the hazard function, if =1, we have the

plot of the function for different values of .

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Hazard Function

Generally, three type of hazard functions can be found in products:

Increasing hazard function (IFR)

Decreasing hazard function (DFR)

Bathtub-shaped hazard function

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Hazard Function

The units on a hazard function or failure rate (hazard

rate) are typically given as failures per unit time.

Manufactured items are often so reliable that to avoid

hazard functions such as h(t) = 0.00000128 failures per

hour, the units are changed so that the hazard function

may be expressed as h(t) = 1.28 failures per 106 hours.

Another way to avoid writing too many leading zeroes

is to change the units to years, where 1 year equals

8760 hours.

Still another way is to use FIT (failure in time): 1 failure

in 109 hours or 1 failure per trillion device for 1000

hours

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

FIT :

Failure in Time or

Failure in Trillion for 1000 Hours

-- Failure in billion hours

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Another lifetime distribution representation is the

Cumulative Hazard Function H(t) defined as

= 0

0.

integrated hazard function. All cumulative hazard

functions must satisfy three conditions:

= = is non-decreasing

Carlo simulation

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

f (t ) f (t ) f (t )

h(t )

S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )

f (t ) 1

H (t ) h(t )dt dt d ( F (t ))

1 F (t ) 1 F (t )

H (t ) ln[1 F (t )] ln(S (t ))

For small F (t ) :

= 0

H (t ) F (t )

= = ()

= 1 = 1 ()

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

= 0

= = ()

= 1 = 1 ()

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 90

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

The average hazard rate between time t1 and t2 is

t2

AHR(t1 , t 2 )

t1

t 2 t1 t 2 t1 t 2 t1

the interval.

If F(t2)-F(t1) is small (less than 0.1), then

F (t 2 ) F (t1 )

AHR(t1 , t 2 )

t 2 t1

Multiply by 109 for units in FIT

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

An importance special case when t1=0, then

H (t ) F (t )

AHR(t )

t t

failing per unit time over the specified interval.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Example a manufacturer of a particular IC device claims that

the devices hazard function is as follow with t measured in units

of hours.

7 0.8

h( t ) 1.8 10 t

From the hazard function, we have the FIT rate for this

population of components is 180 FITs at 1 hr and is 0.1136 FITs

at 10,000 hrs. The average hazard rate to 10,000 hrs is

H ( 10 ,000 )

10 ,000

0.568 FITs

0.2 x10 ,000

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Summary

R(t ) S (t ) f (t ) f (t ) f (t )

h(t )

F (t ) 1 S (t ) S (t ) R(t ) 1 F (t )

dF (t ) H (t ) ln[S (t )] ln[ R(t )]

f (t )

dt

= 0

= = ()

= 1 = 1 ()

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 94

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Example

f ( x) ax, 0 x 10

valid density function, (b) determine the

mean and variance of the distribution, and

(c) derive expressions for the reliability and

hazard functions.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Example (contd)

Solution

For the density function to be valid, the area under

the curve must equal one. Thus,

10 a 2 10

a( x)dx 1 ( x ) 0 a 1 / 50

0 2

The mean and variance of this distribution are

x 10 1

E ( x) x dx (10)3 6.667

0 50 150

10 1

V ( x) E ( x ) x 3dx (6.667) 2 5.55

2 2

0 50

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Example (contd)

10 1 x2

R( x) d 1 , 0 x 10

x 50 100

1

x

f ( x) 50 2x

h( x ) , 0 x 10

R( x) x 2

100 x 2

1

100

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Example

Given the hazard function

h( x) c, x 0

Determine the reliability function and the

probability density function

x

Solution cd

cx

R( x) e 0

e ,x0

The reliability function is

The probability density function is

cx

f ( x) h( x) R( x) ce ,x 0

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 98

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Looking for a single number to represent the

reliability data instead of a distribution

Moments and fractiles contain less information than

a lifetime distribution representation, but they are

often useful ways to represent the distribution of a

random lifetime.

Examples of these performance measures include

the mean time to failure, E(T), the median time, t0.5

and the 95th percentile of a distribution, t0.95.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

The most common measure associated with a

distribution is its mean, or first moment,

integration by parts and is based on the

assumption that

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Another value associated with a distribution is its

variance, or second moment about the mean,

deviation to measure the dispersion of a distribution

is that these quantities depend on the scale (for

example, hours or minutes) of measurement used.

One way to overcome this scale problem is to consider

the coefficient of variation

which is dimensionless.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Fractiles/Percentiles

Fractiles of a distribution are the times to which a

specified proportion of the items survives. The

definition of the pth fractile of a distribution, tp (often

called the pth quantile or 100pth percentile) satisfies

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

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Q:The exponential distribution has survivor function,

t

S (t ) e

Find the mean and variance of the distribution.

survivor function from 0 to infinity

E T S (t )dt

1

0

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 104

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Since the probability density function is

t

f (t ) S ' (t ) e for t 0

t

the second moment is 2

ET 2 2

f (t )dt

0 2

using integration by parts twice. Hence, the variance is

V T E T

2

ET

2 2

2

2

1

2

1

2

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Finally the pth fractile of the distribution, , is found by solving

1 = for

1

= log(1 )

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EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

The mean life function, which provides a measure of the average

time of operation to failure, is given by:

= = =

0

This is the expected or average time-to-failure and is denoted as

the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure).

MTTF is an index of reliability performance.

MTTF does not give any information on the failure distribution of

the component/device/system when dealing with most lifetime

distributions.

Vastly different distributions can have identical means, it is

unwise to use the MTTF as the sole measure of the reliability of a

component.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

By definition = = =

0 0 0

From individual

Experimental Data

1 n

MTTF ti

n i 1

1

2

Which distribution ,

R(t)

2 or 1, is better ?

1

Time t

0

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Median Life

Median life, , is the value of the random variable (TTF) that has exactly one-

half of the area under the pdf to its left and one-half to its right. It represents the

centroid of the distribution. The median is obtained by solving the following

equation for . (For individual data, the median is the midpoint value.)

= .

The modal life (or mode), is

the most likely observed failure time with

value that satisfies:

()

= =

<

For a continuous distribution, the mode is that value of that corresponds to the

maximum probability density (the value at which the pdf has its maximum value,

or the peak of the curve).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Median Life

Median life, , is the value of the random variable (TTF) that has exactly one-

half of the area under the pdf to its left and one-half to its right. It represents

the centroid of the distribution. The median is obtained by solving the following

equation for . (For individual data, the median is the midpoint value.)

= .

The modal life (or mode), , is the value of that satisfies:

()

=

the maximum probability density (the value at which the pdf has its maximum

value, or the peak of the curve).

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 112

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Semiconductor

Devices are

typical Non-

Repairable

systems

Failure rates are often used as an index for reliability. A failure rate indicates

how often a failure occurs per unit time, and failure-rate values generally

change over time as shown in the graph:

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICE LIFE STAGES

Early failure stage:

- failures occur at a high rate following the initial

operation

- failure rate declines rapidly over time:

potential failures that could not be screened in

fabrication fail in a short time if stress such as

temperature or voltage is applied, as:

- micro particles collecting on the wafer

- material defects

- photolithography defects

- oxide damage during the fabrication process, etc.

Expectations: memory devices: 1-5 PPM, ASICS,

microprocessors: less than 20 PPM,

consumer devices: below 2-300 PPM

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 115

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICE LIFE STAGES

Random failure stage:

- After early failures are eliminated, the failure rate drops to an

extremely low value.

- Some failures randomly occurring after a long time, the failure

rate never decreases to zero.

- FR is almost constant because the failures occur sporadically.

Expectations: memory devices: 1-5 FITs, microprocessors: 5-20

FITs, ASICs: 20-30 FITs, consumer: below 100 FITs.

- failures occur with increasing frequency over time and are

caused by age-related wear and fatigue, as:

- electronic metal migration

- oxide film destruction (TDDB)

- transistor wear out due to hot carrier damage.

Expectations:

consumer: 10 yrs or less, special applications: up to 50-100 yrs.

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 116

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Exponential Distribution

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Distribution

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Distribution

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Distribution

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Reliability Distribution

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Plotting Position

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Plotting Position

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Plotting Position

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Work Example 4

The reliability of 1000 non-repairable components was

measured over a time interval of 50 000 hours. At the beginning

of the test, all components were working to specifications. The

cumulative number of failures as a function of time is given in

the table.

(a). Find reliability R and unreliability F as a function of time.

(b). Decide whether the data follows a Weibull distribution.

(c). Estimate the values of To, and .

(d). Find the probability of survival to 10 000 hours.

(e). Find an equation for the instantaneous hazard rate (t).

Is (t) decreasing, increasing or constant with time?

(f). Estimate the mean time to failure MTTF.

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

To = 0

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

2 - Statistical Framework for Reliability Planning 135

EE6602 Quality & reliability Engineering

Failure rates for components are often so small that units of failures per hour

would not be appropriate. Typical scales most often used for failure rate are:

%/K (Percent per thousand hours) : one percent per thousand hours

would mean an expected rate of 1 fail for each 100 units operating 1000 hour.

PPM/K (Parts per Million per thousand hours) : one PPM/K means

1 fail is expected out of 1 million components operating for 1000hrs.

PPM/K = FIT (Failure In Time) (another way to remember: Failure In

Trillion components operating for 1000 hours)

Failure Per Hour %/K FIT Failures per hour X 105 = %/K

0.00001 1.0 10,000 Failures per hour X 109 = FIT

0.000001 0.1 1,000 %/K X 104 = FIT

0.0000001 0.01 100

0.00000001 0.001 10

0.000000001 0.0001 1

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