Ilydrological Aspects of Alpine and High Mountain Areas (Proceedings of the

Exeter Symposium, July 1982). IAHS Publ. no. 138.

Recession characterization of small mountain

basins, derivation of master recession curves
and optimization of recession parameters

LUIS S, PEREIRA
High Institute of Agronomy, Technical
University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda,
1399 Lisboa Codex, Portugal
HANS M, KELLER ..
Eidg. Anstalt fur das forstliche Versuchswesen,
CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

ABSTRACT This paper deals with methods of obtaining

master recession curves (MRC) of small mountain basins
and of estimating the parameters of compound recession
laws. MRC correspond to average recession conditions.
They are derived by: (a) analysing all observed depletion
curves; (b) adjusting their segments with a simple
recession law; (c) grouping these segments according to
their parameters; (d) characterizing these groups with
the mean values of the recession parameters, and (e)
representing the MRC by the sequence of these calculated
recession segments. Utilizing a weighted least-squares
method for solving nonlinear equations, the optimization
of recession parameters includes: (a) computerized
estimation of the initial set of parameters; (b) a
procedure to check the parameter values, (c) use of
particular techniques to improve calculation. A brief
analysis of results shows that in 95% of the cases the
variance of residuals was < 1.0 I s - .

INTRODUCTION
Recession flow is best described by an exponential

Q t = Q Q exp (-at) (1)

or by a hyperbolic function

Q t = Q 0 /(l + a t ) 2 (2)

where QQ is the initial discharge, a is the recession coefficient

and Q t is the discharge at time t. Equation (1) corresponds to deep
aquifer depletion while equation (2) describes the recession
phenomena for shallow aquifers.
The recession flow from a basin corresponds to the release of
water from different reservoirs, each with specific storage and
discharge characteristics. It cannot be described entirely by these
equations. In general it is necessary to use a complex equation,
like
243
244 L.S.Pereira S H.M.Keller
=
2t 2o e x p ( - a t) + Q0 e x p ( - a t ) + QQ e x p ( - a t) (3)
1 ^ 3
where each term represents a different flow component.

THE MASTER RECESSION CURVE

A recession curve represents the response of a given basin
integrating the existing conditions of recharge, storage and
discharge. For small basins and shallow aquifers the variation of
recession conditions is important and is mainly related to the
antecedent recharge conditions, while in large basins and deep
aquifers this variation is smaller and essentially related to long-
term fluctuations of rainfall.
The characteristic response of a basin is represented by the
master recession curve (MRC) that corresponds to the average
recession conditions during a given period.
In a small mountain basin, the recession conditions are mainly
influenced by the antecedent recharge conditions. It is therefore
necessary to consider an MRC for each season, where rainfall and
vapotranspiration regimes are followed by specific recession
conditions. The MRC represents the most frequent depletion
situation. This is why this curve is utilized to formulate models
of streamflow, for forecasting, for estimating groundwater or to
study the influence of man or vegetation on water regime and water
balance.

The derivation of the master recession curve

A large number of methods for obtaining these MRC have been
developed: the correlation method, the tabulating method, the strip
method (Toebes & Ouryvaev, 1970), the method of plotting with
arbitrary origin (Trainer & Watkins, 1974) , the method of
simultaneous adjustments (Snyder, 1962) , the method of ordination of
discharges (Fdrer, 1973) or the simple calculation of the mean
recession coefficients (Farvolden, 1971).
In general, these methods are slow and it is difficult to estimate
their accuracy. Also they are not well adapted to computer use. A
new method has therefore been developed for characterizing the
recession of several small mountain basins in the Swiss Pre-Alps
(Pereira, 1977) listed in another symposium paper (Pereira & Keller,
1982) which overcomes these difficulties.

The recession segments method for derivation of the master recession

curve
Basic assumptions :
(a) A n MRC must describe average conditions o f a complete flow
recession unaffected by precipitation.
(b) The method concerns the decreasing flow rates at fixed time
intervals A t . In general it is applied to daily streamflow.
(c) The MRC must include all the main flow components - direct
flow, subsurface flow and baseflow.
(d) The MRC is the integral result o f various different reservoirs
 Recession characterization 245

r e l e a s i n g water a t s u c c e s s i v e l y lower r a t e s . Therefore i t can be

r e p r e s e n t e d by a s e t of r e c e s s i o n segments, each followed by a n o t h e r
w i t h lower r e c e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t .

Description of the method

(a) According t o the c o n d i t i o n s of r e c h a r g e ( p r e c i p i t a t i o n ) , of
s t o r a g e (shallow and deep l a y e r s and a q u i f e r s ) and of d i s c h a r g e
(flow and v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n r e g i m e s ) , t h e seasons have t o be chosen
on the b a s i s of s i m i l a r r e c e s s i o n b e h a v i o u r . In Pre-Alp a r e a s , we
d i s t i n g u i s h t h e spring-summer p e r i o d and the autumn season and during
the w i n t e r the snow accumulation and the snowmelt s e a s o n s .
(b) Using a semi-log p l o t of a l l d a i l y flow hydrographs ( P e r e i r a ,
1975a) of a given time p e r i o d , we can choose a l l t h e d e p l e t i o n curves
t o be used i n the MRC. These p l o t s ( F i g . l ) have t o be observed
t o g e t h e r with the m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a i n o r d e r t o exclude a l l
i n t e r v a l s a f f e c t e d by p r e c i p i t a t i o n .
(c) The same hydrographs ( F i g . l ) are then u t i l i z e d t o s e l e c t , for
each chosen d e p l e t i o n c u r v e , t h e time i n t e r v a l s t h a t can be d e s c r i b e d
by a simple r e c e s s i o n c u r v e .

Q (l/s/km')
1000
* Mean daily discharge
Recession segments
266 Number of day in the year
? Indicates days w i t h precipitation

100

10

FIG.l Example using hydrographs of mean daily flow for

the choice of recessions and of the recession segments,
246 L.S.Pereira & H.M.Keller

(d) Each of t h e s e time i n t e r v a l s corresponds t o a r e c e s s i o n

segment t h a t must be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i t s i n i t i a l flow Q and i t s
r e c e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t a as w e l l as by some parameters of the
s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of i t s v a r i a t i o n ( P e r e i r a , 1975b), such as
the c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n C v .
(e) P l o t t i n g , for each season, a a g a i n s t QQ on semi-log paper
(Fig.2) , an a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a and Q i s made
and abnormal d a t a are excluded.

Q0
(l/s/km 2 )

1000-

^ | | | 1 1
500- | , | |
400- ' I I 1 89 x '

300-
I l l 88 x 1
200- 1 9! x149 1

I l l x7b 136.

*146 '33>
X 141

1b0x
100- l I ! f7 mx ' ^ |
80- I | I
I I , 65x 137 J 1
157X
60- 90 K X ,52 1
X135 . 1
40- |
158
151 |y
,
4
X66 |
,ff] I
30-
I
1 q 7 x 106 1
13

A
27x
20-
I r -j 29
Segment used for the caiculation of at and Q 0 j

981 93
24 x
" 3 8 rJ l A Segment used for the calculation of a, only
Coordinates of a\ and Q 0 i
10- 96
139* 1 i The groupes of recession segments
155*x
3 1 1
-,/ I i i 1 1 1 I I I ! 1 1 1 "
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 a
FIG.2 Example of the relation between the parameters a
and Q of the regression segments.

f) Observing this plot (Fig.2) we select a set of classes of a

and Q
*o values This can be done according to the manner of
grouping of the points (a, Q Q ) and to the position of the
corresponding recession segments in the daily flow hydrographs
(Fig.l). As an alternative, we can calculate
m
Aa = (a amxn
. )/ I
, L^
(k = 0,1,2,...,m) (4)
k=0
where a and a , are the observed extreme values of a and m is
the number of classes (5 to 7 ) , and we can then estimate the limits
i

of the class intervals a, by the relation

k
a, = (2k + l)Aa (5)
k
in which k increases with a.
(g) Each class interval i, with size n;, is characterized by the
 Recession characterization 247

mean ^values
n n.
i
i
S.l =j =1l ' (i = 1,2, ..., m)
(j = 1,2, ..., n )
(6)

n,-l
/n (7)
50i = I Q0
j=l i,3

The weights are WH J = Cv.; J/N. ., functions of the coefficients of

variation of each individual recession segment, as stated under (d),
and of the size Nj_ j of these segments.
(h) Each class interval corresponds to a calculated recession
segment; thus, if i increases when Q 0 and a decrease, these
segments follow the equations

Q t = Q 0 . exp(-cLt) (8)

with Q > Qt > Q

i i+1
T h e r e f o r e , the MRC i s c o n s t i t u t e d by m segments, each following the
e q u a t i o n ( 8 ) . The MRC can hence be expressed as

Q t = Q 0 .exp { - 5 ( t - t _ 1 ) } (9)

with t. S> t > t. _-, , after calculating the time limits of the class
intervals from tj_ = t _-, + At. , with

At = (In Q 0 , - In Qo i + 1 >/i (10)

Equation (9) gives all the values of the MRC, expressed as daily
discharges, from Q0- , the mean value of the first class, to Qm-;n,
the mean value of the minimum discharge of any segment included in
the m classes.
(i) In order to ensure that the recession segments corresponding
to each class interval are statistically different, the calculations
to characterize these classes, mentioned under (g), can be completed
with the estimation of the variance and, thus, with t-tests of
differences between the calculated mean values. Therefore, if
necessary, the limits of each class can be modified to improve the
accuracy of the method.

Brief analysis of the application of the method This method was

applied to obtain the MRC of eleven Pre-Alp basins (Pereira, 1977,
1978a). The recession segments have been calculated through the
exponential (equation 1) and the hyperbolic (equation 2) models,
that we compared. For each basin three seasons were considered:
the spring-summer season (after snowmelt until August), the autumn
season (from August to the beginning of snow accumulation) and the
growing season, which contains the whole period without the
influence of snow. The method was also applied to a high-mountain
basin, Varunash, in the southern Swiss Alps near Bernina, where only
the growing season was considered.
248 L.S.Pereira S H.M.Keller

An e x a m p l e of r e s u l t s ( p a r a m e t e r s Q 0 J and cL o f e q u a t i o n (9)
c o n c e r n i n g t h e autumn MRC o f some b a s i n s of A l p t a l (Schwyz) i s g i v e n
i n Table 1.

TABLE 1 Parameters of MRC (equation 9) and their confidence

intervals for some Flysch basins in Alptal (Schwyz)

Basins Spring-Summer Autumn

163.7034.56 0.8379+0.0561 183.35+53.07 1.0237+0.1612

59.15+ 5.85 0.5133+0.0477 66.46+17.27 0.51320.0403
31.96+ 5.66 0.2856+0.0114 35.52+ 3.69 0.2990+0.0161
20.78+ 4.56 0.2022+0.0153 29.48+ 2.47 0.1960+0.0055
15.11+. 5.70 O.0987+0.0223 16.48+ 3.43 0.1311+0.0102
9.14+ 1.19 0.0522+0.0070 9.44+ 0.89 0.0634+0.0053
7.49+ 0.91 0.0387+0.0050

116 .29 + 23.60 0.4997+0.0334 144.86+39.43 0.7863+0.0562

58.29+12.16 0.3594+0.0164 38.88+ 7.74 0.3323+0.0264
29.55+ 4.33 0.1320+0.0248 19.54+ 2.87 0.1011+0.0116
18.16+ 2.59 0.0751+0.0103 11.75+ 3.07 0.0316+0.0043

92.76+18.06 0.4820+0.0418 83.97+15.94 0.5809+0.0789

39.13+ 6.04 0.2121+0.0087 46.63+ 8.92 0.2515+0.0309
29.47+ 8.26 0.1452+0.0145 29.16+ 7.56 0.1670+0.0147
10.62+ 4.50 0.0897+0.0205 20.74+ 3.01 0.0986+0.0068
13.23+ 1.39 0.0513+0.0053

From t h e r e s u l t s o f a p p l y i n g t h e m e t h o d t o f i t t h e MRC a s s t a t e d
above i t i s c o n c l u d e d :
(a) S t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s h a v e shown t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f n o r m a l
d i s t r i b u t i o n i n s i d e each c l a s s i n t e r v a l had t o be a c c e p t e d .
(b) The t - t e s t f o r d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n mean v a l u e s o f s u b s e q u e n t
c l a s s e s h a v e shown t h a t t h e a v e r a g e v a l u e s o f a w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y
d i f f e r e n t (Table 2 ) .
(c) The same t e s t s when a p p l i e d t o t h e mean v a l u e s o f Q 0
p r e s e n t e d d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s ( T a b l e 2 ) . The v a r i a b i l i t y o f r e c h a r g e
c o n d i t i o n s i n f l u e n c e s t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of t h e Q0 v a l u e s .
(d) The a s s u m p t i o n o f d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e s e g m e n t s t h a t
d e s c r i b e t h e MRC ( e q u a t i o n 9) was a c c e p t e d b e c a u s e o f t h e main
i n f l u e n c e o f a on t h e s h a p e o f t h e c u r v e s .

OPTIMIZATION OF THE RECESSION PARAMETERS USING THE WEIGHTED LEAST-

SQUARES METHOD

An MRC being a complete recession curve, is described by a complex

exponential or hyperbolic function, with two or three terms. The
 Recession character!zation 249

TABLE 2 t-test for differences between means of a and 0o of

subsequent class intervals (per cent of values in each probability
class)

Parameter and Classes of probability P

P40.1 0.KP41 .0 1.0<P45.0 5.0<P415.0 15. .0<P

a(autumn) 91.1 6.7 2.2 - -

a(summer) 86.0 7.0 7.0 - -
a(growing
season) 93.6 2.1 4.3 - -

QQ(autumn) 28.9 22.2 24.5 13.3 11. .1

Q (summer) 18.6 39.4 14.0 14.0 14. .O
Q0(growing
season) 44.7 36.2 10.6 8 .5
'

e x p o n e n t i a l model (3) can be e x p r e s s e d

N
(11)
Qt = I Qn exp(-akt)
k=l
Each pair of Q 0 and a k characterizes a flow component. Therefore,
the calculation of these parameters is connected with the hydrograph
separation techniques. Many methods have been developed (Dickinson
et al., 1967) that give solutions to both questions. We can
mention the classical methods of Barnes (1939) and of Langbein (1940),
utilized and modified by many authors. In general these methods
are of little value to separate more than two components, even if
numerical techniques are used (Singh & Stall, 1971). Graphical
solutions (Kovacs, 1975) are the most common for problems with three
flow components.
To overcome the most common difficulties, and to permit the use
of computer facilities, Pereira (1977) developed a new least-squares
approach in order to obtain the recession parameters that
characterize recession in small mountain basins.

The least-squares method of solving complex exponential recession

equations
We can give to equation (11) the general form

Qi f (t; QQ1, Q,O N ' <<1 I e.i (12)

wi t h i = 1 , 2, T h i s i s a system of n e q u a t i o n s and 2N
unknown parameters, where discharge Q^ is a function of time tj_, e^
being the residuals. The system can be solved by the least-squares
method if some conditions are accepted.
250 L.S.Pereira S H.M.Keller

The use of weights The f i r s t c o n d i t i o n i s t h a t the r e s i d u a l s

must be normally d i s t r i b u t e d . The shape of the r e c e s s i o n c u r v e ,
with the d i s c h a r g e s d e c r e a s i n g e x p o n e n t i a l l y suggested the use of
weights.
The choice of weights w. . was e x p e r i m e n t a l . They a r e :

w - 1.0
1,1
w. . = W
+ 0.2 (i = 2, 3, .. , 5)
1,1 i~l, i-1

w. . = W
+ 2.0 (i = 6, 7, .. , 30)
1,1 i-1, i-1

w. . = w.
i-1
+ 1.0 (i = 31, 32, .. ,50)
1,1 1-1,
w. . = w. + 0.5 (i = 51, 52, . .)
1,1 1-1, i-1

The v a l u e s of w- , can be d i f f e r e n t for o t h e r d a t a in o r d e r to

o b t a i n the most adequate r e s i d u a l s d i s t r i b u t i o n .

The linearization technique The second c o n d i t i o n for using the

l e a s t - s q u a r e s methods i s the l i n e a r i t y of the e q u a t i o n s (12). Given

y, = f (x. lf ... , x. , , fi , . . . , 9 ) + e. (13)

J
i 1,1 i,h 1 m i

y. = f (X. , 0) + e. (14)
J
i l l
we can linearize after developing the function f in a Taylor's
series

m 9f(X if 0)
f (Xi, 0) = f (X, 0 Q ) + I (15)
j
j=l -1 ti=e
J o
when 0 is the vector for an initial estimate of the unknown
coefficients 6-s. With brief notations, the equation (15) can be
written
m
f, = f. + y z. . B. (i6)
1,:i
i o i -ti D
and, therefore, system (14) takes the linear form
m
y. = f. + y z. . 3. + e. (17)
1 Ol .^ O 1,1 O 1 1
j=l
The unknown quantities are now Bj constituting the vector B Q
An iterative process gives new estimations of the 0 vector
through the successive values of the B vector,

The iterative solutions The vector 0 is constituted by the

parameters of equation (12), after some transformations in order to
limit the variation of the parameters during the iterative process.
 Recession characterization 251

Then, b e c a u s e Q m u s t a l w a y s b e p o s i t i v e , s e t t i n g QQ = to , we c a n
c a l c u l a t e OJ = + Z Q O . The r e c e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t is transformed to
K = e x p ( - a ) , which i s s u b m i t t e d t o t h e c o n d i t i o n 0 < K < 1; and
s e t t i n g K = 1 / ( 1 + 2 ) , we t h e r e f o r e c a l c u l a t e = + / ( 1 - K ) / K .
To o b t a i n 9 we s e t 6^ = C M , 9 = to , . . . , 9 m _^ = E,^ and 0 m = to, .
Then e q u a t i o n (12) i s r e p l a c e d b y

Q, = f (t. ; 6n , . . . , 0 ) + E. (18)
1
i 1 m i
which is identical to equation (13) . Its solution is given by
equation ( 1 7 ) , which i s , utilizing weighted least squares,

(z' w z )~ J Z ' W (Y -" F (19)

o o o o
w h e r e ZQ i s t h e n x m m a t r i x o f t h e p a r t i a l d e r i v a t i v e s , W i s t h e
n x m m a t r i x o f w e i g h t s and (Y - F ) i s a column m a t r i x , w i t h
d i m e n s i o n n , c o n s t i t u t e d by t h e d i f f e r e n c e s ( r e s i d u a l s ) b e t w e e n t h e
d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s y . and i t s e s t i m a t i o n s f.. The e l e m e n t s b.
i o i o i
o f B a r e t h e e s t i m a t i o n s o f t h e 8 . , e l e m e n t s of B^.
o o 1
The f i r s t e s t i m a t e o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s QA i s r e p l a c e d by a new o n e :
0-, = 0 + B . S u c c e s s i v e i t e r a t i o n s improve t h e s e e s t i m a t e s . Thus,
f o r t h e i t e r a t i o n 1 ( 1 = 1,2 . . . , I m a x ) we h a v e

i = i-i + (z
I-i w
Vi r l Vi W{Y
- F i-i' (20)

The calculation finishes when results converge. As criteria for

convergence we can use the comparison between variances of the
residuals for successive iterations

1 < (ol ,/a*) < 1 + y (21)

1-1 I
where
n 2
Y. - f (X. , 0 ) /(n-m) (22)
1 1 I
i=l

=
and Y being a chosen quantity, in this case Y 0.05.

The first estimate of the recession parameters The first

important question to be solved was the estimate of the initial set
of values 0 9-;, i.e. of parameters Q 0 , and a^. To do this the
normal graphical method has been transformed into a numerical
calculation (Fig.3):
(a) estimation o f the time interval T, , beginning at t = 0 , and
ending when discharge Q- is considered to be baseflow;
(b) adjustment o f the exponential equation to discharges Q, , with
t > T b , and calculation o f Q Q and a^;
(c) calculation of Q* = Q t - Q Q exp(-0U t ) ;
(d) estimation o f the time interval T^, beginning at t = 0 and
ending when Q is considered to be subsurface flow;
(e) adjustment o f the set of values Q. , for T, -^ t < T, and
Q ^ Qmin' with chosen Qmj_n' and calculation of Q 0 2 and 012 ;
(f) calculation o f Q" = Q, - Q 0 exp(-a2 t) ,-
252 L.S.Pereira S H.M.Keller
Discharge Weight
(]/s/km 2 l (units)

QS. = 9 6 . 4 5 ;

> - - _

n ! ! ! ! ! r_ j

10
! { i j

11 12 13 14 Time (days)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
H- Th

FIG.3 Example of a first estimate of the parameters QQ

and a of the compound recession curve, exponential
equation.

(g)
a adjustment
J of t h e s e t of v a l u e s Q , f o r t < T, and Q >,x Q . ,
*T h t mm '
and c a l c u l a t i o n of QQ-, and 0 3 ;
(h) t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of Q 0 , and (X- i n t o (1)^ and j_, r e s p e c t i v e l y ,
and d e t e r m i n a t i o n of t h e v e c t o r 0 Q as i n d i c a t e d above.
The r e s u l t s of t h i s e s t i m a t i o n procedure can l e a d t o r e l a t i v e l y
high v a r i a n c e s of r e s i d u a l s . In t h i s case a p a r t i c u l a r i t e r a t i v e
p r o c e s s of c o r r e c t i o n of Q_ and Q i s enough t o reduce t h i s
v a r i a n c e and improve t h e v e c t o r ^ ( P e r e i r a , 1978b).

Particular calculation techniques to improve convergence

(a) To s e l e c t a new s c a l e , t h e m a t r i x A = z'w Z h a s been
transformed i n t o a s c a l e d m a t r i x A* and t h e v e c t o r B of t h e s o l u t i o n
has been transformed i n t o a s c a l e d v e c t o r B*, as proposed by
Marquardt (1963).
(b) In o r d e r t o improve c a l c u l a t i o n s with t h e m a t r i x Z, because
of t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between a b s o l u t e v a l u e s of i t s columns, t h e
Tne
elements of each column have been modified: z*. . = z. */Z-\
v a l u e s of . were chosen i n such a way t h a t a b e c t e r equilxbrium
between columns was o b t a i n e d .
(c) I n a model w i t h s i x unknown p a r a m e t e r s t h e convergence was
b e t t e r when i n i t i a l l y two parameters were f i x e d . Only a f t e r t h i s
s t e p were a l l p a r a m e t e r s submitted t o t h e convergence p r o c e s s .
Together w i t h t h i s p r o c e s s , a c o n t r o l of t h e v a l u e s of t h e
d e t e r m i n a n t was imposed i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t overflow ( P e r e i r a , 1978b)
 Recession characterization 253

(d) Because the g r a d i e n t method can be s u b j e c t to divergence

during the c a l c u l a t i o n , t h e h a l v i n g method (Draper & Smith,1966) was
adopted t o modify t h e ^ v e c t o r By. The procedure c o n s i s t s of s e a r c h i n g
for the v e c t o r B y = B- [ /2 u , with u = 1,2, . . . , U m a x , t h a t g i v e s , i n
a p a r t i c u l a r i t e r a t i v e c a l c u l a t i o n , the minimum value t o t h e
v a r i a n c e of t h e r e s i d u a l s ; t h u s , t h i s v e c t o r B u r e p l a c e s Bj and t h e
normal i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s runs a g a i n .

Final comments on the application of the optimization techniques

The weighted l e a s t - s q u a r e s method was a p p l i e d t o the d e r i v e d MRC (68)
for t h e twelve b a s i n s , as mentioned b e f o r e , and t o the o t h e r 34
complete r e c e s s i o n curves of t h e same b a s i n s , i n a t o t a l of 102 s e t s
of d a t a ( P e r e i r a , 1 9 7 7 , 1978b). The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d for the autumn
season are p r e s e n t e d i n F i g . 4 .

FIG.4 The MRC, with equation Q = QQ e al + QQ2 e a2t

+ QQ e~a3t, for eleven Swiss Pre-Alp basins (autumn
season).

Table 3 summarizes the r e s u l t s of a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s method:

the v a r i a n c e of r e s i d u a l s i s very low, which shows a very good
accuracy of c a l c u l a t i o n ; the r e l a t i v e v a r i a t i o n of the extreme
v a l u e s , both h i g h e r and lower, a l s o i n d i c a t e s the adequacy of the
model of e q u a t i o n (3) for d e s c r i b i n g an MRC for small mountain
basins.
254 L.S.Pereira & H.M.Keller

TABLE 3 Results of the application of least-squares method to

solve exponential recession equations with three terms (number of
cases in each class)

Variance of residuals a2 (1 s l
)

a2<o.io o.io<a240.3o o.30<a24i.oo i.oo<a2

Number of 61 24 12 5
cases
Relative variation of the extreme values V_

Vrg41% l%<Vra45% 5%<Vra

Number of Higher 94 8
cases
Lower 63 39

CONCLUSIONS
(a) The u s e o f t h e r e c e s s i o n s e g m e n t s method f o r d e r i v a t i o n o f
the master r e c e s s i o n curves i s very useful for the study of recession
i n small mountain b a s i n s : i t i s a d a p t e d t o c o m p u t e r u s e and i t
makes e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e MRC d e r i v a t i o n p o s s i b l e .
(b) S t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s p r o g r a m s t o g e t h e r w i t h t h i s d e r i v a t i o n
m e t h o d make i t p o s s i b l e t o c h o o s e t h e r e c e s s i o n model t o be u s e d
(equation 1 or 2). For the Pre-Alp b a s i n s , s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s
h a s a l w a y s shown p r e f e r e n c e f o r t h e e x p o n e n t i a l m o d e l , w h i c h i s t h e
o n l y one p r e s e n t e d h e r e ( e q u a t i o n 9 ) .
(c) The w e i g h t e d l e a s t - s q u a r e s m e t h o d g i v e s a v e r y good a c c u r a c y
o f c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e r e c e s s i o n e q u a t i o n (3) f o r
d e s c r i b i n g t h e MRC f o r t h e P r e - A l p b a s i n s ( a l s o f o r s n o w m e l t r u n o f f ) .
(d) The d e s c r i p t i o n o f an MRC t h r o u g h t h i s r e c e s s i o n model g i v e s
a good p h y s i c a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f o u t f l o w from b a s i n s a s shown i n a
s t u d y on t h e v a r i a t i o n o f t h e r e c e s s i o n p a r a m e t e r s s u b m i t t e d t o t h i s
symposium ( P e r e i r a & K e l l e r , 1 9 8 2 ) .

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