INTRODUCTION:

Since Artificial Intelligence was introduced in early 1970s. The goal of AI scientists
has always been to develop computer programs that can think and solve
problems at the level compatible to human experts. An expert system is usually a
program which performs complex data processing similar to evaluation made by
a human expert.

Meaning of Expert System:

An expert system is a set of programs that manipulate encoded knowledge to
solve problems in a specialized domain that normally requires human expertise.
An expert system knowledge is obtained from expert resources and coded in a
form suitable for the system. The expert knowledge must be obtained from
specialists or other sources of expertise, such as texts, journal articles and data
bases. This type of knowledge usually requires much training and experience in
some specialized field such as medicine, system configuration or engineering
design. Once a sufficient body of expert knowledge has been acquired, it must be
encoded in some form, loaded into a knowdge base, then tested, and refined
continually throughout the life of the system.

Definition:
Prof. Edward from Stanford University, a famous researcher on ES defines ES as:
"an intelligent computer programme that uses knowledge and reasoning
procedures to solve difficult problems that need certain expertise to solve the
problems."

A computer system which emulates the decision making ability of a human

expert.

EXPERT SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS

An ES is usually designed to have these characteristics:

1. The Highest Level of Expertise:

This characteristic is most useful. This expertise in an ES is comes from the
knowledge and problem solving steps provided by the best experts in their
own domains. This will lead towards efficiency, accuracy and imaginative
problem solving.

2. Right on Time Reaction:

An Expert System must function and interact in a very reasonable period of
time with the user. The total time must be less than the time taken by an
expert to solve the same problem.

3. Accepting Incorrect Reasoning:

This type of application is used when the information used for the solution
is unclear, vague or cannot be obtained and not in a domain that is very
clear.

4. Good Reliability:
 The expert system must be reliable and it must be improbable for the
system to make a mistake.

5. Easily Understood:
The Expert System must be able to explain the reasoning steps during the
execution or the inference process for the user to better understand what is
happening. An ES must be able to explain why such actions are taken the
same way an expert would explain the decision he made.

6. Flexible :
Due to the large amount knowledge possessed by an ES, it is important for
the ES to have an efficient mechanism to administer the compilation of the
existing knowledge in it.

7. Symbolic Reasoning:
The Expert system represents knowledge in symbolic terms by using one
set of symbols that represents all the concepts of the problem in the
specific domain. All the symbols, when combined or paired, will
demonstrate a relationship between the problems. When this relationship is
represented in a programme they are called structured symbols.
For example:
Statement : Ahmad has a fever
Rule : IF a person has a fever, THEN take Panadol
Conclusion : Ahmad takes Panadol

8. Heuristic Reasoning
An expert does efficient problem solving by relating to experience as the
basis of reasoning. If the problem encountered is new, then the expert
combines the knowledge and experience to solve the problem.

9. Making Mistakes
Since most of the knowledge in the ES database was input by humans it is
subject to human error. This might happen due to the rules, facts, or steps
not being considered or being wrongly input during the process of acquiring
of knowledge.

10. Expanding with Tolerable Difficulties:

The problems that an ES needs to solve must be complex and difficult but
at a tolerable level. However, the problem must not be too easy.

11. Focus Expertise:

Most experts are skillful and knowledgeable in their own field only. The ES
must be made to focus on a specific domain and not mix up the knowledge
of two experts from different domains.

Components of Expert Systems

Knowledge Base
 Interface Engine

User Interface

A. KNOWLEDGE BASE:

Where the information is stored in the expert system in the form of facts and
rules (basically a series of IF statements). This is where the programmer writes
the code for the expert system. It contains domain-specific and high-quality
knowledge. Knowledge is required to exhibit intelligence. The success of any ES
majorly depends upon the collection of highly accurate and precise knowledge.

Components of Knowledge Base

Factual and heuristic knowledge

The knowledge base of an ES is a store of both, factual and heuristic knowledge.

Factual Knowledge It is the information widely accepted by the

Knowledge Engineers and scholars in the task domain.

Heuristic Knowledge It is about practice, accurate judgement, ones

ability of evaluation, and guessing.

Knowledge representation
It is the method used to organize and formalize the knowledge in the knowledge
base. It is in the form of IT-THEN-ELSE rules.

Knowledge Acquisition
The success of any expert system majorly depends on the quality, completeness,
and accuracy of the information stored in the knowledge base.

The knowledge base is formed by readings from various experts, scholars, and
the Knowledge Engineers. He acquires information from subject expert by
recording, interviewing, and observing him at work, etc. He then categorizes and
organizes the information in a meaningful way, in the form of IF-THEN-ELSE rules,
to be used by interference machine. The knowledge engineer also monitors the
development of the ES.

B. Interface Engine

In case of knowledge-based ES, the Interface Engine acquires and manipulates

the knowledge from the knowledge base to arrive at a particular solution. This is
invisible part of the expert system. It is the main processing element of ES.
Interface Engine do the following:

Adds new knowledge into the knowledge base if required.

Resolves rules conflict when multiple rules are applicable to a particular

case.

To recommend a solution, the interface engine uses the following strategies

Forward Chaining

Backward Chaining

Forward Chaining
It is a strategy of an expert system to answer the question, What can happen
next?

Here, the interface engine follows the chain of conditions and derivations and
finally deduces the outcome. It considers all the facts and rules, and sorts them
before concluding to a solution.

This strategy is followed for working on conclusion, result, or effect. For example,
prediction of share market status as an effect of changes in interest rates.

Backward Chaining
With this strategy, an expert system finds out the answer to the question, Why
this happened?

On the basis of what has already happened, the interface engine tries to find out
which conditions could have happened in the past for this result. This strategy is
followed for finding out cause or reason. For example, diagnosis of blood cancer
in humans.

C. User Interface

User interface provides interaction between user of the ES and the ES itself. It is
generally Natural Language Processing so as to be used by the user. The user of
the ES need not be necessarily an expert in Artificial Intelligence.

It explains how the ES has arrived at a particular recommendation. The

explanation may appear in the following forms

Natural language displayed on screen.

Verbal narrations in natural language.

Listing of rule numbers displayed on the screen.

The user interface makes it easy to trace the credibility of the deductions.

Developing an Expert System

There are ten basic steps in developing any expert system

1. Identify the Problem and Need:

Like many computer programs, expert systems are, in a sense a solution looking
for a problem. To justify the creation of expert systems, there must be a real
problem to solve or need to meet. For that reason, your first step in developing
an expert system should be to examine your situation and clearly decide what
the problem is or why such a system may be helpful. In attempting to achieve
results, we often run into problems: time problems, productivity problems, or
people problems.

2. Determine the Suitability of the problem:

Once the problem is clearly identified, you can then examine it in more detail to
see if it is right for an expert system solution.

3. Consider the Alternatives:

Although your problem may fit the criterion for an expert system, don't overlook
what might be simpler or equally as satisfactory alternative solutions. For
example, certain kinds of employee performance problems might be corrected by
training. Another solution is providing all employees with the information they
need in a written manual or job aid. A non-computers solution may be not only
the best solution, but also the simplest and least expensive

Consider other software alternatives. A data base management system (DBMS)

software package might better fit the problem than an expert system, by letting
you store a significant amount of information and access it conveniently. The
ability of the computer to reason may not be necessary.

Finally, dont overlook a conventional software solution. A straightforward

algorithmic solution might be better than a symbolic or AI solution. Having now
looked at the alternatives, you can make your final decision. If an expert system
is your choice, then you can begin the next steps.

4. Compute the ROI

If your choice is an expert system, your next step is to determine whether or not
it is economically feasible. You must compute the Return On your Investment
(ROI) by performing a cost / benefit analysis. Developing an expert system is not
a simple job. It is going to cost a considerable amount not only in the purchase of
software but in the hours it will take to create the system. Personnel must be
available to do the work, and even the simplest of expert
systems will take months to develop and cost a lot of money. Can the time and
expense be justified ? is the problem to be solved bad enough or important
enough to make the investment.

5. Select a Development Tool:

An expert system development tool is a software package that allows you to
enter an experts knowledge into the computer without having to program. Most
expert system development tools are rule based. Some tools permit the
implementation of frames and semantic networks, but they are usually more
expensive and generally operate on larger computers.
6. Perform the Knowledge Engineering
At this point in the development process, you are finally ready to do some real
creative work. Development of an expert system begins with knowledge
engineering: that is, acquiring the knowledge. As you know, knowledge comes in
many forms. It can be standard textbook knowledge that you can dig out of
books, articles, and other references quickly and easily. this knowledge is
important, but it is usually not the best kind of knowledge for an expert system.
the real knowledge will come from individuals who are experts in the subject.

7. Design the System

using the knowledge you have acquired and the tool you have selected, you can
now begin the design of the expert system. First, you will need to create an
outline, a hierarchal flow chart, a matrix, decision table, or other format that will
help you organize and understand the knowledge using these aids, you will
convert the knowledge in to IF-THEN rules. It is best to follow the specific
procedures recommended by the software tool you are using. once the basic
design is complete, you can begin using the tool to create a prototype of one
segment of the system. Translate a portion of the knowledge into rules and test
the newly created segment.
your job here is to test the concept before going ahead with the entire program.

8. Complete the Development

once you have satisfied yourself that the system is going to work satisfactorily
you can begin to expand the prototype into the final system. The best way to go
about this is to expand the prototype one segment at a time.

9. Test and Debug the system

After the expert system has been developed, you will need to spend some time to
testing and debugging it. No expert system will be perfect the first time, and a
considerable amount of work will be required to validate it. User feedback will
show you where to make final changes, corrections, and additions to achieve the
desired performance.

10. Maintain the System

An important part of expert system development is ongoing maintenance,
updating the system with new knowledge, removing knowledge that is no longer
applicable, and otherwise fine tuning the system to keep it fully current and
applicable to the problem.

Expert System Advantages

ES usage provides many advantages. Some of the advantages are:

(a) Consistency: One of the advantages of an ES is that the results given are
consistent. This might be due to the fact that there are no elements such as
exhaustion and emotions as experienced by humans.

(b) Hazardous Working Environment: Through an ES, we can avoid exposing

ourselves to a toxic or radioactive environment. An ES can take over the place of
an expert to handle problems in a high-risk area such as a nuclear power plant.

(c) Ability to Solve Complex and Difficult Problems: A very difficult problem
encountered by an organisation, if not taken seriously, can cause an adverse
impact such as losses or cancellation of a business deal. Sometimes, the
problems need to be attended to quickly. The problems can become more
complicated when individuals or experts involved in solving them are absent or
cannot be contacted. Thus, an ES serves as an alternative to experts.

(d) Combination of Knowledge and Expertise from Various Sources:

As discussed earlier, one of the important components in an ES is the knowledge
base. This component contains the accumulated knowledge and acquired or
transferred expertise from many experts. Thus, an ES is sometimes more superior
than an expert because its knowledge and expertise have come from many
sources.
(e) Training Tool for Trainees: An ES can be used by trainees to learn about
the knowledge-based system. Trainee who uses an ES would be able to observe
how an expert solves a problem.

Disadvantages and Weaknesses of Expert System

(a) Not Widely Used: ES is not widely used in business firms or organisations.
Due to limited usage, firms are still in doubt about the capability and, most
definitely, the high cost involved in investing in an ES.

(b) Difficult to Use: Using an ES is very difficult and learning and mastering it
requires a long time. This discourages managers from using ES. In one aspect,
developing an ES that is user-friendly is the biggest challenge for ES developer.

(c) Limited Scope: This is the most obvious weakness in an ES; its scope is very
limited to its field only. In the development aspect, the ES built is best developed
because of its high accuracy. However, usage-wise decision makers face
constantly changing problems which involve different fields that are inter- related.

(d) Probable Decision Error: The main source of the knowledge is experts.
Humans make mistakes. If the experts input wrong information into the Expert
system, this will have a negative impact on the results produced.

(e) Difficult to Maintain: The information in ES must be constantly updated to

solve new problems. Every new problem that occurs needs new knowledge and
expertise. This means that there must be an on-going relationship between the
domain experts and the ES developer. This situation requires the domain experts
update the source of knowledge and expertise to suit the current situation.

(f) Costly Development: The cost to consult a group of experts is not cheap,
what if ES was built traditionally without involving the use of an Expert System
shell? On the other hand, programming cost is high because the artificial
intelligence technique is difficult to master and needs a very skilful programmer.

(g) Legal and Ethical Dilemma: We must be responsible for our actions and
decisions. An expert has to take responsibility for the information he or she
provides. The difficult question here is who should shoulder the responsibility if a
decision suggested by ES results in a negative outcome.