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FOCUS Win Thornton, SPE, Is vice president of decommissioning, slobal projects organization, at BP. Hehas more than 35 years of experience in offshore construction and decommissioning projects working. snoperator for BE, Chevron, and Oxys ‘contractor from Brown & Root and WorleyParsons; anda consultant for Winmar and TST. Thornton holds a BS degree from the Georgia Institute of Technology and an MS degree from the University of Houston. His recent work Includes offshore decommissioning and reuse projects in the Gulf of ‘Mexico, west Africa, California, Alaska, southeast Asia, and South America, Thornton hat the environmentally sound and cost effective disposal of obsolete platforms sugh placement in state-sanctioned Rigs to Reefs" progr member of the PT Editorial Committee, — Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. IPTC 16845 Environmental Liabilities in the Oll and Gas Industry and Life-Cycle Management by Lian Zhao, Integrated Environments, eta. smpioned OTC 24461 Advances in Autonomous Deepwater inspection by 0, McLeod, SPE 161556 Axis of Success: A Unique Professional Plug-and-Abandonment Project ina Populated Town Area, by Hazem Abdelsalam, ADCO, eta 102 DECOMMISSIONING AND ABANDONMENT Industry perceives decommissioning projects as more risky and uncertain than capi- tal projects, Several recent decommissioning projects delivered in an immature mar kKetplace seem to support this view. What can be done to change this perception and ‘enable delivery of safe and cost-effective decommissioning projects? Thave always been a fan of this quote from Irving Fisher: “Risk varies inverse- ly with knowledge.” believe it can provide insight into a strategy that ean improve the detivery of decommissioning projects. What can be done around decommission- ing projects to gather knowledge of the asset to facilitate better planning and delivery and reduce the risk and uncertainty associated with decommissioning? The select ed papers and additional reading listed here illustrate the use of knowledge to plan decommissioning more effectively and to understand the risks associated with select ed end states. The following are afew thoughts on the use of knowledge to reduce tisk and uncertainty in decommissioning: > Decommissioning differs from a capital project in that we know (or think we know) what the asset looks like. The critical uncertainty isthe condition of that asset at end of life. What diagnostic information do we gather routinely over the life cycle that can provide clarity on the condition ofthat asset for decommissioning? Perhaps we need a key performance indicator analogous to front-end loading in capital projects that addresses the quality of our decommissioning and condition knowledge ofthat asset Identify the responsible party in an organization for gathering, distilling, and "using asset knowledge for decommissioning. Asset information comes from various sourees over the life cycle ofthe asset but needs a decommissioning. set of eyes to identify and manage these risks. An analogy could be how \wo typically view and manage regulatory or asset-integrity information. ‘This is an accountability that spans the life cyele ofthe asset through to decommissioning, > When planning the actual decommissioning work, identify and perform diagnostic work in cooperation with the supply chain as part of your market engagement strategy. Itis better to know the condition of what needs plugging and decommissioning than to find out halfway in."The lunknowns become planned work activities instead of risks. This optimally isa ‘cooperative effort between the owner and contractor to identify and manage uncertainties ofthe project, not just a set of contractual terms and conditions Share detailed experience, case studies, and lessons learned through professional forums such as SPE. 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A species sensitiv- ity distribution is applied to each stressor to identify a PNEC, and PEC/PNEC ratios lewlated for the individual stresso Identified as relatingto drill cuttings (eg toxicity of chemicals and oxygen deple tion). This allows the model to combine and compare the contributions of differ tent stressors to the overall risk, known as the potentially affected fraction (PAF) The level o°5% PAF isa gencrally accept ed risk level, and as sueh, the EIF value is taken as the spatial extent over which the multistressor PAP exceeds 5%. The model has been developed to calculate the dispersion and deposition fn the seabed of drilling mud and cut tings as well asthe dispersion of chem cals in the free-water masses and has been validated in the fleld, The calcula- tions are based on a Lagrangian, or “par. ticle.” approach combined with a near: field plume model and the application of external current fields for time- and depth-resolved currents. Application The data set comprises 4 years of single-point current data (1989-92) for the Murchison location at eight depth bands through the water column. The data set is repeated in the model to pro- duce currents spanning the period from 1980 to 2001. Wind-driven forcing of the sueface currents is nat included in the modeled currents, and the cuttings de position in water depths of 156 m is not Platform North 2A wr expected to be affected by the shallow surface conditions, The model takes into account the thermocline and halocline. (For a detailed discussion of the Murch son mud and cuttings discharges, please see the complete paper.) Oil Composition. A variety of differ: ‘ent oil types have been used throughout the Murchison drilling program. Within each type, there might be several possi- ble formulations. There are no definitive records available to identify what was used, Therefore, assumptions have been made about the general type of oil used on the basis of the years when drilling took place (le. diese-based, low-toxicity oil, and synthetic oil). Each of these ge nerie types is composed of a variety of specific oil components. Typically, these can be categorized into groups with sim- ilar properties, including aliphatic oil benzene and alkylated benzene (ben: zene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX)], naphthalenes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAI Results Re-Creating the Extant Pile Within the Model. Predicted Sedimentation Lev- ls. Predicted deposition thickness of the drill cuttings and drilling mud over an area of approximately 8%8 km around the release point is showin in Fig. 3. This indicates that the majority ofthe cuttings deposits are clase to the discharge point while a smaller proportion distributes lover a wide area to a low thickness. The greatest accumulation of cuttings is be ‘heath and slightly to the southeast of the release point, reflecting the prevalling currents inthe area, il Concentrations in the Sedi ment. Concentrations are predicted at the end ofthe discharge period, and then a number of years subsequently (1, 2, 5,10, and 20 years). Its possible to view teach hydrocarbon type separately in the model, and it caa be seen that overall, after 20 years, the concentrations of oil are still dominated by aliphatic cearbons, which are an order of magni tude higher in concentration than PAHs. ‘The model predicts that BTEX and naph- thalenes degrade relatively quickly, and that hydrocarbons in the thinner areas of deposition degrade much more quickly than those in the deposits of several cen: timeters or more. Mass of Oil Lost From Pile Over Time, The amount of oil loss from the pile (ie., from all the deposition with in an @XB-km area around the dis chatge point) is seen to begin ata rate of 119 ta over the first year after discharg es ceased, dropping rapidly over time to less than 5 t/a at Year 20 and beyond. The high initial rates could reflect the rela tively high biodegradation rates of BTEX and naphthalene and the fact that most oil reduction appeats to take plaee in the thinner areas of deposition, ‘Area of Seabed With an Oil Con centration Above 50 mg/kg. Because a gradually reducing footprint remains on the seabed, the arca multiplied by the du- ration (footprint persistence) will in crease slowly over time. To understand whether this might, at some point in the future, reach the OSPAR criterion, the trend was translated into a power rela- tionship with time and then predicted into the future. It was calculated that the forecast of footprintxpersistence over time would not the 500 km?xyears criterion, even project- ing over thousands of years. Environmental Risktothe Seabed. ‘The modeling predicts that, at the end of the simulation (Le., the end of 2019), areas where the risk is greater than 5% are predicted to be contained within ap proximately 1 to 2 km of the well. 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