SOCIETY AND EDUCATION IN THE WORLD OF 2040

Society and Education in the World of 2040

Benjamin Kahn

Western Oregon University, Masters of Education, Information Technology Program

Society and Education in the World of 2040

Abstract

This report offers a speculative look at the world in 2040 and imagines how emerging

information technology will change the way people live, work, and learn. The influence of major

advancements in Artificial Intelligence and the spread of the Internet of Things and Big Data are

discussed, and the resulting impacts on the economy and individual privacy are considered. In

this broader context, we look at how the education industry will be reshaped in these new

societal and economic conditions and how the types of learning outcomes schools seek must

adapt to prepare students to thrive in the hyperconnected and digitally intelligent world of 2040.

Finally, the reader is asked to consider how cultural and societal values must change when

technology is challenging assumptions about what it means to be human what constitutes a

valuable contribution to society.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, virtual reality, augmented reality, Internet of Things, Big

Data, ambient computing

Society and Education in the World of 2040

In the world of 2040, nearly everyone and everything is connected to the worldwide

network. Not only will the sum of the world's knowledge be available to those who know how to

seek it, but situational, timely, personalized data will also be fed to individuals proactively,

discretely, and constantly. Human intelligence will be digitally augmented in work, school, and

play. A lower percentage of Americans will be actively engaged in the traditional workforce than

at any time in the past, but many will pursue lifelong learning, entrepreneurship, activism,

service, or the arts. Others will languish, unable or unwilling to navigate the digital, connected,

distraction-filled, fast-moving world of cyber-citizenship or completely immersed in online

fantasy worlds.

Literal Office Drones

The largest shifts in society will come from the systematic and relentless replacement of

knowledge and service workers with Artificial Intelligence (AI). (Stevens 2016) If the early 21st-

century economy was defined by globalization and automation of the manufacturing industry

with robotics, the late 30s and early 40s will be the era when mid-level service and knowledge

economy jobs disappear en masse. Many of the same companies who dominated the consumer

digital information revolution of the early 21st century will control this technology: Google,

Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft will all compete fiercely for this nascent mega-

business. Chinese competitors such as Baidu will also play a significant role internationally.

Google, whose search engine has previously been the most disruptive information

technology in world history, will have long since completed its transformation into an AI

first company. (Lewis-Kraus 2016) The other major players will not be far behind. The big

firms will methodically buy-out smaller companies that produce breakthroughs in artificial

intelligence, machine learning, or robotics; Google has gobbled up at least 14 AI companies in

Society and Education in the World of 2040

recent years, including the well-known acquisition of the machine learning startup DeepMind.

(Kelly, 2016, p. 36)

Rather than posing an existential threat to humanity directly as a discrete machine

animated by a charismatic (yet potentially homicidal) humanlike consciousness, AI in 2040

looks more like Amazon Web Servicescheap, reliable, industrial-grade digital smartness

running behind everything, and almost invisible except when it blinks off... Youll simply plug

into the grid and get AI as if it was electricity. (Kelly 2016, 32) AI wont make war on

humanity. It will simply be much faster, cheaper, and more reliable at performing routine

knowledge and service tasks than any human could ever hope to be, making many people

obsolete by the economic standard in which society has traditionally judged their worth.

Infinite Data

The Internet of Things (IoT), in which all ordinary products become connected, will be

fully mature by 2040. Anything consumers can buy, and any household or industrial equipment

like sewer pipes or trash cans, will collect a steady stream of data. Even human bodies will

join the network. (Regalado 2014)

The virtual world will likewise be a font of rich data. Social norms will have changed,

and regulations protecting individual privacy will have long since been rolled back. It will be

understood that permission to access, exploit, and sell your data to the highest bidder is the price

of admission to the network, with few legal roadblocks standing in the way of providers

making use of data in whatever ways they see fit. (Finley 2017)

Meanwhile, tens of billions of users will knowingly share data on social media. Ultra-fast

Internet access will reach the most remote areas on the planet using technology developed by

powerhouses such as Facebook and Google. (Brodkin 2015) There will be more sharing, more
Society and Education in the World of 2040

disclosure, more transparency. I would sum it up like this: Vanity trumps privacy. (Kelly 2016,

204)

Privacy will be a thing of the past, valued less than social interaction, security,

convenience, efficiency, health, access, and profit.

Machine Learning

The confluence of fully realized Big Data and AI, and the systematic analysis of

unstructured data, will define the world of 2040. Day-to-day activities commuting, getting a

coffee from Starbucks, banking will be fully automated as AI learns the skills to do more and

more jobs. (Rotman 2015) Experiential, concierge service with a human touch will come with a

premium price tag whose purchase signifies conspicuous consumption, just as when nighttime

electrical lighting was new and scarce, it was the poor who burned common candles. Later, when

electricity became easily accessible and practically free, our preference flipped and candles at

dinner became a sign of luxury. (Kelly 2016, 67)

Fields such as research, healthcare, finance, and education will be revolutionized as

digital intelligence provides huge amounts of data, along with the statistical tools to crunch

these numbers and offers a whole new way of understanding the world. (Anderson 2008)

At the same time, humanity will face increasingly tough social, economic, and

environmental problems. While automation will displace those engaged in work that is fixed,

middle-skill, routine and repetitive, skills like judgement, flexibility, creativity, social

intelligence, and abstract thinking will be in high demand. (Stevens 2016, 369) The best and

brightest of humanity will need to work closely with AI as a kind of bionic-software (Khosla,

Do We Need Doctors or Algorithms? 2012) to problem-solve against pandemics like climate

change, food security, disease, and income inequality. (Knight 2016)

Society and Education in the World of 2040

21st Century Skills

Initiatives to remake the core curriculum of primary and secondary schools for the digital

age will be complete by 2040. Learning objectives will be less focused on retaining information

and rote recitation, and instead, will aim to prepare students to participate in a world where

constant connectivity and persistent data have completed the process of changing how we

remember. (Estes 2011) The problem learners are preparing for isnt that they dont have

enough information; its deciding what data out of a nearly infinite set to look at, and what to do

with it.

From a young age, we will place great emphasis on teaching foundational 21st-century

skills like collaboration, skilled communication, digital literacy, innovation, self-direction, and

creative, real-world problem-solving. (SRI International n.d.) As children move into adolescence

and adulthood, they will put these meta-skills to use as they face the need to rapidly adapt to new

information, stay up to date with constantly emerging professional technologies, and grow

accustomed to a fast-moving social and professional landscape. The core mission of education

will be to teach humans how to use their unique skills to succeed in a hyperconnected and

digitally intelligent world. Collaborating across cultures and with AI resources effectively will be

crucial to solving complex problems such as climate change, which involves so many variables

pollution, transportation, economics, etc. that its impossible for any one expert to have all

of the solutions, or even understand all of the issues. (Trafton 2009)

New Education Paradigms

Education will not be immune to the automation that changes society and culture. As U.S.

government funding for education has steadily dropped while costs rise (Mortenson, 2012;

Leachman & Mai, 2014) automation will be deployed to defray the costs of administrative bloat.
Society and Education in the World of 2040

AI and Big Data will also be present in the classroom. We will learn the effectiveness of

active and self-directed pedagogies, using project-based and experiential learning to teach

collaboration and creative problem-solving. The best teachers will produce innovative learning

content that can be consumed by any student, anytime, anywhere, but in schools, in-class lectures

will be a thing of the past. Most teachers will transition away from traditional classroom roles

into the role of facilitator, mediator, and coach. Learning analytics fed into mobile, gamified,

social learning systems will allow personalized and adaptive education as students progress

through competency-based, fixed learning, variable time programs that have replaced todays

fixed time, variable learning systems. (Khosla, Will We Need Teachers or Algorithms? 2012)

Learning will be much more flexible as physical presence in the classroom and face-to-face

access to experts will be an optional luxury. Many students will work with software tutors,

collaborate with peers, and hold regular meetings with learning coaches through virtual

telepresence. Virtual reality (VR) simulations will allow students to get hands-on, situational

training and experience and real-time feedback on performance before they go into the field.

(Kelly 2016, 217)

As the lines between formal and informal learning disappear and education becomes

credentialing and skills based rather than degree based, adults will find themselves moving in

and out of instructional programs frequently. Lifelong learning will become necessary to

maintain economic and professional relevance.

Home Life and Society

AI, IoT, and VR/AR will be equally transformative in our home lives, where it will be

applied to make our relationships to services, culture, and entertainment more efficient,

personalized, and adaptive. The concept of ownership will be de-emphasized as we see new
Society and Education in the World of 2040

ways of accessing anything and everything as a service. Purchasing living space, transportation,

food, entertainment, education, technology devices, and more is not a one-time event; its an

ongoing relationship. (Kelly 2016, 111) Autonomous transportation and distribution networks

will move goods and food to market or straight to subscribers homes. If you do want to enter a

store, youll need an account before youre granted access, and you wont check out with a clerk

youll simply walk in, get what you need, and leave, as ambient systems record the

transaction.

Meanwhile, computing built into everything around us and into our own bodies will

change the way we access technology from intentional to second-natured to instinctive. It will

respond to our voices, gestures, habits, and even our mood. When we have leisure time, well be

able to access highly social and immersive virtual worlds catering to all kinds of interests and

tastes.

In the past, the man has been first. In the future, the system must be first.

From a sociological standpoint, perhaps the dominance of AI and Big Data is simply the

logical conclusion of Western Enlightenment-era emphasis on rationality, meritocracy, and above

all, efficiency. Thinkers have noted the parallels between Silicon Valleys thirst for inhuman

productivity and the Industrial-era Scientific Management Theory of Frederick Taylor, which

sought to purge human inefficiency from the manufacturing process by recording, breaking

down, standardizing, and tightly regulating each task performed by a worker. As the digital

scholar Nicholas Carr put it, the Googleplex is the Internets High Church, and the religion

practiced inside is Taylorism. (Carr 2008, 62) Amazon, whose Alexa AI service is already

available in speakers, appliances, wearables, home appliances, and mobile devices, and will

continue to see rapid adoption, has been similarly taken to task for the human cost of its
Society and Education in the World of 2040

efficiency-obsessed corporate culture. (Head 2014) The companies who will produce the most

valued and transformational technologies of 2040 sell process, efficiency, and reliability. A major

source of strife in 2040 will be caused by technology eliminating the livelihoods of many

people, even as they produce great wealth for others. (Rotman 2015) Solutions such as a

universal basic income, shortened-work week, and major wealth redistribution will be

implemented in many countries with varying degrees of success.

Conclusion

The World of 2040 will be remade by information technology like AI, Big Data, and

VR/AR. Artificial intelligence will drive seismic changes in the economy and culture, with the

accompanying strain on social cohesion. Data will drive almost all processes omnipresent

sensors will constantly collect endless quantities of information, and the intelligent cloud-

powered software needed to decode it will be widely available. The resulting algorithmic

intelligence will be embedded everywhere our cities, homes, schools, workplaces, and even

our bodies and in any device or service you can imagine.

In 2040, we will face major decisions about what it means to be authentically and freely

human in a world where so much is accomplished automatically behind the scenes. We will need

to re-evaluate what kinds of contributions are valuable, and how society can nurture and support

the development of the human experience for its own sake. It will be all too easy for too many to

be devalued because cant make money for owners of capital as well as machines can. As

Western society gets closer than ever to achieving its dream of total rationality and efficiency,

humankind in 2040 will need to decide if its going to leave billions of people behind. Perhaps

they can be distracted with immersive VR entertainment and social networks. But instead, I hope
Society and Education in the World of 2040

we will find new ways to celebrate and encourage humans to do what they do best when

supported and encouraged connect, create, and make meaning together.

Society and Education in the World of 2040

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