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Dan Zangers Chart Pattern 15
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Traders World Magazine 53 methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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FOR A DETAILED WRITEUP ON GOULDENS COURSE INCLUDING CONTENTS, SAMPLE TEXT & FEEDBACK SEE:
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REVISED! Dr. Gouldens advanced technical trading course Behind The Veil
presents powerful trading techniques based upon the deepest
BEHIND THE VEIL scientific and metaphysical principles applied in a different way
than courses in the past. It unveils many mysterious and difficult
AN APPLIED TRADING COURSE USING theories and applications similar in approach to those of W.D.
ADVANCED PRICE/TIME TECHNIQUES TO Gann and shows a tr ader how to use these pr inciples to
successfully analyze and trade the any market on any time frame.
PROJECT FUTURE TURNING POINTS...
The techniques developed by Dr. Goulden will teach traders how to
BY DR. ALEXANDER GOULDEN identify future pivot points following which profitable market
FORECASTING RECORDS moves ensue. All of the timing tools needed to forecast these pivot
points and the geometric tools used to identify price entry and exit
DR. GOULDEN PRODUCED 7 FORECASTS points, and to determine the nature of the ensuing trend are
IN 7 DIFFERENT MARKETS. HIS RESULTS demonstrated in the Course. Based upon a deep level of
WERE IMPRESSIVE, 7 OUT OF 7, metaphysical and cosmological insight, these techniques identify
PRICE LEVELS, TIME TURNING POINTS, AND TRENDS,
YIELDING 3,161 POINTS IN 7 DAYS, WITH though proprietary HARMONIC, ASTRONOMICAL &
7 TRADES, IN 7 DIFFERENT MARKETS! GEOMETRICAL techniques developed by a Cambridge scholar.
W.D. Gann, in his course titled The Basis equal number of time periods, either
of My Forecasting Method said: We use the days, weeks or months.
square of odd and even numbers to get For example, if a stock or commodity made
not only the proof of market movements, a price low of $26, then one would watch for
but the cause. The natural number squares a change in trend at 26-days, 26-weeks or
are 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81, 100, 121, 26-months from the date that this price low
144, 169, 196, 225 and so on to infinity. For originated from. If it made and extreme high
many years, this particular timing technique level at $155, then a change in trend would
eluded any real practical application. be monitored at 155-days, 155-weeks and
There were of course times when simple months from the origin. The range would be
counts of these numbers in either calendar the difference between these two extremes or
or trading days produced a market turning 129-days, weeks or months.
point at a natural squaring of a whole number Michael Jenkins book, The Geometry of
in days, weeks or months, but nothing Stock Market Profits has many stock examples
consistent ever presented itself, thus leaving of this traditionally understood one to one
Ganns profound clue about as valuable as relationship of price expressed as time, but it
doing Fibonacci counts or similar bar counting is difficult to get it to work on other stocks or
methods. markets selected at random.
This quote along with many like It wasnt until, digging through piles of old
statements, such as: When price and time materials and private letters written by Gann,
square change is inevitable. would work I came across one particular private letter
sporadically, with the traditional interpretation that triggered in me the impetus to re-read
of Ganns instructions for squaring some all of Ganns courses in order to uncover the
extreme price high or low as well as the meaning of the ideas that he was claiming
spread or point range between two extremes, in these quotes, of which he never provided
but nothing concrete. any tangible examples. I had also never seen
Gann claimed that squaring a price extreme other author or Gann expert explain these
or a price range was one of the most points, so I became determined to get to the
important and valuable discoveries that bottom of it.
he ever made. In most of his available courses, Gann was being honest in expressing his
Gann teaches this technique as follows: The perspective, but just not willing to hand it over
Squaring of Price with Time means an to students on a silver platter. Also, Gann had
equal number of points balancing an the tendency to scatter pertinent information
Once a number becomes greater than the square of a natural number, it moves into the
next square. For example, the square of 1 is 1, and all numbers greater than 1 are in the
square of 2. The square of 2 = 4, so all numbers greater than 1 and less than or equal to 4 are
in this square. The first number to exceed 4 moves into the square of 3, which = 9.
The diagonal arrangement of these two natural squares, both even and odd not only
The Square of 8 or 64, occurs on October 13th, 2015 and would be anticipated as a future
turning point in this market (S&P500 Index). Each grid or block, if preferred, represents a
corresponding block on the Natural Squares Calculator more commonly known as the Square
of Nine.
Daniel T. Ferrera
institute@sacredscience.com
www.sacredscience.com/Ferrera
800-756-6141 or 951-659-8181
FOR A DETAILED WRITEUP ON THIS COURSE INCLUDING FULL CONTENTS, AND SAMPLE SECTIONS SEE:
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W.D. Gann (William Delbert) : 1878 ~ 1955 : Often credited with being a true visionary
in terms of understanding the 20th century markets and the natural orders of time/price
relationships. Although much of Ganns work remains somewhat mysterious and shaded from
the public, recent works have exposed much more detail to the relationships and theories
applied by W.D. Gann. Gann himself stated the financial markets are driven by the Law
of Vibration. Gann also stated the Rate of Vibration of individual stocks and commodities
determined the up and down of their prices.
Within this article, we will be exploring how the core components of the Law of Vibration as
well as the Rate of Vibration, as identified and applied by W.D. Gann, correlates and applies to
the multifaceted techniques we are exploring.
Much of Ganns work includes the work of Leonardo Fibonacci and expounds on new factors such
as Vibration and Harmony. These concepts in price action as applied to the financial markets
were well beyond their time for the early 1900s when Gann shared this information in a now
famous The Ticker and Investment Digest, 1909 (interviewed by Richard D. Wyckoff). Within
this article, Gann attempts to disclose as much as he dared to without giving away the secrets of
his hard work and study. Here are a few excerpt from this groundbreaking article.
In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes
apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that
there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has
shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of
inactivity.
My interpretation of this statement is that W.D. Gann was attempting to share the knowledge
that while attempting to prove or disprove his theories regarding the Law of Vibration, he
identified multiple different phases within the Law of Vibration as well as a correlation to the
Natural Laws that exist in all things. Very much like Physics theories and concepts like String
Theory, introduced by Albert Einstein, W.D. Ganns concepts and theories crossed the boundaries
of existing knowledge and practice with regards to our understanding of Time/Price relationships.
The relationships he described can only be understood to mean there are periodic or cyclic laws
or forces that are the underlying driving forces of Natural Laws and the Law of Vibration. By
learning to identify these unique dynamic factors, clearly described and attuned by price action
and rotation, one can clearly attempt to identify key pivotal time/price relationships that may,
with a high degree of accuracy, occur in the future.
One could assume that more intimate knowledge of the size and velocity of price rotation within
the chart would assist in determining the Cyclic and Vibrational variances one could rely upon
more heavily. One could also entertain the concept that longer term analysis of price charts,
Daily, Weekly and Monthly, would produce some very clear price targets in both directions given
the level of Vibration the market is exhibiting.
I find these statements and theories to be undeniable. Many of the best traders I have ever
witnessed had an immense amount of intimate knowledge regarding the symbols/markets they
traded and often, by simply attaining a vast amount of experience watching and exploring the
price action of said markets. These individuals were often able to pinpoint key price reversal
areas well in advance of price movements and make seeming impossible trades based on gut
experiences. We can now assume these traders were not lucky, but skilled beyond their wildest
expectations by the simple fact that they had, in some way or capacity, inherently identified
many of Fibonaccis and Ganns concepts and theories, put them into practice and were able to
adhere to trading practices that achieve results.
From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various
stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration.
These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and
their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they
act in accordance with periodic law.
Keeping in step with some of the Fibonacci rules, this one statement by W.D. Gann illustrates
one key factor of all his greatest teachings; be like water. I interpret this statement as a
warning that all markets are volatile and fluctuate in vibration rates at different stages of
price advance and decline. Thus, what was vibrating at one level 15 minutes ago, may not be
vibrating at the same level now. Additionally, the controlling factors, a wide scoping term for the
Law of Nature, Cyclic/Periodical, Harmonic and Inharmonious price activity as well as Fibonacci
time/price symmetry are all in a state of constantly varying activity and vibrational turmoil.
Gann is stating that one has to continually adapt to the constant change in the markets at all
One component of advanced technical analysis I learned many years ago was the concept
of failure to fail and failure to succeed. In short, the action of failure to fail results in a
SUCCESS. The action of failure to succeed results in a FAILURE. Therefore, knowing and
understanding that, as traders, we can adapt to any changing market conditions by using this
results hypothesis allows us to develop a means of quickly determining a proper course of action
with our trading decisions. I believe much of Ganns analysis is based on similar principles from
the simple observations Ive referenced herein.
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be
subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate
cause.
This final statement is very telling in the nature of the all-encompassing structure and simplicity
of the statement itself. W.D. Gann is stating that every action, reaction and price formation
MUST be a result of the universal laws in conjunction with causation and harmony as related
to Ganns theories. In other words, there is no chaos in the markets. They are not random in
nature. There is a direct cause and effect mechanism at play in all aspects of the markets, life,
the universe and nature. This natural universal force, as we may call it, must be similar in
nature to Einsteins String Theory or some of the other Quantum Physics theories that propose
that all things are related to one another and that all opportunities, events and outcomes are
possible at all times.
When one considers this condition as it relates to the financial markets, the Bruce Lee quote
comes to mind in regards that water will find the path of least resistance in almost all cases
and that water adapts and molds itself to the constraints of its environment. Therefore, much
of Ganns trading structures must be based on the concept of identifying the key vibrations and
market turning points in past price action as a key to knowing when and where future potential
price objectives and turning points may occur.
The following examples expand upon our previous analysis by attempting to identify and
visually represent Gann Vibrational analysis in conjunction with our Fibonacci price analysis. By
combining these two somewhat similar, yet unique, methods of analysis, we hope to be able
to present an example of what W.D. Gann might have been seeing as some of the underlying
forces that drive market price activities.
Daily EURUSD (Forex) Chart with Fibonacci Extension values & Gann Vibration indicators applied.
The Gann Vibrations indicators attempt to identify any variance of vibration in the markets by
identifying price rotation in comparison to historical price activity. As W.D. Gann stated, these
www.TradersWorld.com
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The Square
true meaning and mechanics of the Squaring of Price &
Time. It will provide absolute proof that the financial
markets are mathematically controlled and predictable.
Quantitative Analysis of It demonstrates that ALL market movement can be
categorized into only 9 possible binary cases that will exist
Financial Price Structure in any type of vibrational chart resulting in 81 possible
cases, represented in a 9x9 grid called the Universal
BY CATALIN PLAPCIANU Swing Chart, which logically or der s and defines ever y
ALSO AVAILABLE SEPARATELY OUR FULLY
possible variation of market action.
The 1st algorithm identifies all swings as conical
AUTOMATED TRADING INDICATORS IN THE
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4000% ANNUALIZED RETURNS! sequence of tradable price/time turning points.
It was June 8th, 2015, when in my Newsletter I sent to the subscribers this Wheat chart,
following the comment:
Today we will look at a new Market which we are introducing in our Report Service: Wheat.
We think there is a good opportunity for a new uptrend in this Market, even if it may remain
sideways for a while. This simple chart shows something important:
Working with grains often means working with horizontal price lines, and here we have an
example. Because of many factors, we see Wheat is in a very good position in terms of a risk/
reward. The following Chart was published a few weeks ago in our Report Service, and was
not a bad call!
You can see on the current chart how this level was never crossed and we could make
many profitable trades buying near 450:
Lets start with our forecast of Soybeans. This is the 2015 Forecast Model (PFS-Polarity
Factor System):
And following is the Soybeans chart of 2015 till today:
The Forecast model was published in December 2014, in my 2015 Soybeans & Corn
Bulletin.
Our forecast for Corn was similarly accurate since, as you know, they move quite similarly.
Like I said before, we mainly study the price structure and the PFS Forecast. You have
seen how the forecast worked very well, and on our website you can also see how the 2014
Forecast worked properly, giving us the opportunity to know in advance the main trends to
follow: (http://www.sacredscience.com/Prandelli/Prandelli-2014-Grain-PFS-Bulletin-REVIEW.
htm)
However, I think that a forecast alone is not enough to be a good trader, because we dont
make money by just producing a forecast, we make money when we have a good plan to trade
the forecast, and the best thing to do is use price structure. I use many studies to do that, but
the most important, in my opinion, are the Planetary Lines and Geometry. Obviously, I cannot
explain here how I do that in detail, but today I feel I want to share with you a geometry that
900/2=450 this is the second range of the price action of Soybeans, 450-900
450/2=225 this is the third range of the price action of Soybeans, 225-450
Here is the chart with all these divisions:
Up til 1960 the market was under 225, once it moved above it, 225 became the most
important support for the next 9 years. 1973, strong movement above 450, a new era started,
the range of Soybeans became 450-900, and 450 is the most important support area for
the next 35 years! We see some movements above 900, but only during emotional and fast
events.
In about one month the new 2016 S&P500, and Grain Bulletins will be ready, so stay tuned!
Best Regards,
Daniele Prandelli
e-mail: info@iaminwallstreet.com
Courses & Bulletins: http://www.sacredscience.com/Prandelli/PFS-Forecast-Bulletin.htm
Short Term Advisory: www.iaminwallstreet.com
High Probability Trading Techniques - S&P500, Crude Oil, Gold, Corn, Soybeans, FOREX,
Stocks and S&P/ASX 200
DISCLAIMER
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, strategies or indicators presented
by e-mail, e-book, blog or files will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There
is no assurance that the strategies and methods presented in here will be successful for you.
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The examples presented
here are for educational purposes only. The data used is believed to be from reliable sources
but cannot be guaranteed. The methods presented are not solicitations of any order to buy or
sell. The author, publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results,
and will not be liable for any loss, damage or liability directly or indirectly caused by the usage
of this material. There is considerable risk of loss in Futures, Stock and Options trading. You
should only use risk capital in all such endeavors.
PRANDELLIS 2014 SOYBEAN & CORN FORECASTS WERE PERFECT! 95% ACCURACY!
Each Bulletin includes a PFS TIME Forecasting Model giving the swing turning points & push impulses
for the year, combined with specific Key Price Levels determined by his proprietary Planetary Longitude
Lines. Subscription includes ongoing updates of analysis and Key Price Levels thru the year! $195.00
FOR DETAILS & 2014 RESULTS SEE: WWW.SACREDSCIENCE.COM/PRANDELLI/PFS-FORECAST-BULLETIN.HTM
FOR A DETAILED WRITEUP INCLUDING CONTENTS, SAMPLE TEXT & CHARTS, FEEDBACK & MORE SEE:
WWW.SACREDSCIENCE.COM/PRANDELLI/LAWOFCAUSEANDEFFECT.HTM
Kairos, greek for opportune and decisive moment, is Stormchaser Technologies' trading application. Kairos
consists of 5 modules that allow you to search for the opportune and decisive moment to trade. Kairos, the nexus
of ancient knowledge and modern technology, lets you research the cause of cycles hidden in the markets.
Harmony of Discord(HoD)
The HoD module scans multiple time frames to find
potential balance and imbalance which are shown
graphically and in a table. By default only balanced
nodes are shown but it can be configured to show
imbalanced nodes as well. Many times the HoD shows
balance from multiple areas. Using potential turns
that are in balance, in combination with price levels,
confirmation with Gann Angles, or with your
own trading system, can be a powerful way of
detecting low-risk entries.
Fractals
The Fractal Module scans for repeating patterns in the
market. Price/Time patterns are matched based on
Time/Price criteria and Fractals can be detected on
multiple timeframes. Once a match is found for the first 3-
4 vectors, the pattern is often continued. Patterns are
searched in 3-4 months worth of intraday data.
Parameters can be specified to filter the "fit" of the fractal.
CIT stands for change in trend. The CIT Toolbox combines some of the most popular technical
analysis tools from our mobile and web based applications, and makes them available on the
TradingView platform.
But before we discuss whats included in the toolbox, first a few words on why we chose to release
this add-on for TradingView (TV). The reason is simple: TV offers some of the best and most
advanced browser based HTML 5 charts which will run on any browser, no matter what Operating
system youre using. In addition to dozens of indicators, drawing tools and real time market news,
TV also comes with a large and active community of traders with whom you can discuss and
analyze your favorite tickers, and who can be an inspiration for generating new trading ideas. And
the best part is that access is free and universal, and you can subscribe only to the add-on service
you are interested in.
The CIT Toolbox, available from the TV MarketPlace, offers five proprietary indicators which cover
different aspects of technical analysis, but work seamlessly with each other. They all share one
simple goal: to help you avoid analysis paralysis, and to keep you on the right side of the trade
under any market conditions and in any time frame.
CIT Angles are inspired by the pioneering work of W.D. Gann and automate his powerful tool,
making its use effortless for the 21st century trader. Although angles have a lot in common with
moving averages, they offer several advantages: first of all, they give clear support/resistance
levels which can confidently be projected into the future; and second, they are automatically
drawn from swing highs and lows with the help of the built-in swing detection algorithm. In
other words, CIT Angles solve two of the major problems facing analysts trying to find a practical
application for Ganns ideas:
1. they automatically pick the correct step/rise of the angle, in tune with the unique rate of
vibration of the individual ticker, and
Among the other indicators in the Toolbox, they most likely will be the first to signal a CIT. The
daily chart below shows that the CIT Angles on the SP500 signaled a CIT on August 19th, preceding
a 200+ drop in the index, and then caught the next 160+ point upswing (Chart 1)
Chart 1
The second indicator in the CIT Toolbox is CIT Pivots. They are designed to appear only at price
levels that mark swing turning points (as detected by the indicators algorithm). What sets them
apart from other swing indicators is their ability to signal CITs with little or no lag. CIT Pivots
offer an easy way to keep track of higher highs and lower lows, and for detecting and counting
waves. For option traders they provide a convenient tool for choosing strike prices in executing
their favorite option strategies. The appearance of a CIT Pivot along with a CIT Angle is a strong
confirmation that a CIT has taken place (Chart 1) above.
The next tool in the CIT Toolbox is the CIT Bars indicator. CIT Bars are designed to eliminate
noise from random price moves, and to provide a novel visual approach to defining trend. As W.D.
Gann said: The great fundamental rule that you must learn in order to be a success is to follow
the trend of the market. If you cannot determine a definite trend, get out and wait until you can.
Chart 2
The next two tools make visualizing short term market swings even easier.
CIT Trend is designed to change color when short-term CITs are detected. Its goal is to eliminate
subjectivity and emotions from the trading process, and to help you decide when to enter, exit or
Chart 3
In summary, the CIT Toolbox offers a mix of proprietary swing, trend and pattern recognition
indicators designed to give users a complete and unique trading and technical analysis perspective,
applicable to any instrument in any time frame. Combined with the advanced charting, drawing
and social networking capabilities of TradingView, they offer users a stimulating and profitable
experience.
I dont know what happened to me. I had how impulsivity and work are interlinked.
been doing so well I was on fire. Then I How many times have you started the trade
took a couple of losses and a need to get my day with thoughts like these, Okay, its time
money back seized me. I lost control and my to get to work, its trading time its time to
trading rules flew out the window. I wanted make something happen. ? After all, you
to make things happen, but I got creamed have got to be doing something, working, if
and took some drawdowns that I should never you are trading right? You cannot just sit
have been sucked into. I know better than there and expect things to happen. Youve
this, but in the heat of the moment, I cant got to do something to make money.
seem to help myself. Wrong. The very urgency to act, to make
things happen, that probably afforded you
Willpower Is Never Enough success in business or corporate life becomes
Whether its revenge trading, over trading, the destructive basis of chasing trades in the
over confidence, or chasing trades, many brave new world of trading. In your work
traders experience a world of hurt when life before trading, being in charge and in
discipline fails and impulsivity short circuits the control was such a strong way of proving your
rational trading mind. How many times have mettle and of proving yourself a winner that it
you declared, Im going to be a disciplined became ingrained as a habit that you did not
trader and trade my plan? only to be question. When you encountered uncertainty,
ambushed by impulsivity again and again. you forced your will and made things happen.
If you are like most traders with an impulse Many a self-made man or woman owe their
tendency, this has happened more times than success to this notion of work as doing.
you can count. This very bias to act sooner rather than
Why is chasing trades such a difficult later is the basis for chasing the trade. With
behavior to break? You would think that the bias to act already in place, the traders
experiencing the pain of drawdowns would mind is fooled into believing he is seeing solid
be more than enough motivation to stop set-ups where a rational mind would not see
impulsivity in its tracks, but its not. And if set-ups that are worthy of the risk. The bias
willpower alone could stop the bleeding caused to act (chase) produces an over-eager trading
by an impulsive mindset, then the problem mind that sees acceptable trades where a
would have disappeared long ago. But for seasoned trader would see none.
many traders, that is not the case. The successful trading mind has to be
The problem is a complex mixture of both retooled from the success mind that the
biology and psychology. It starts with your trader brought into trading. The mind that
unexamined beliefs about work and action. A produced success in other endeavors ( a bias to
traders notions about work will drive how they act and get things done)is simply not the mind
trade, for better or worse. Lets first examine that produces success in trading. Success in
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on Discipline for Traders
Adrienne Toghraie, Traders Success Coach, writes
articles that are dedicated to those of you who have mere
minutes a day to absord helpful ideas and creative solutions
to nagging problems about discipline in trading.
One of the questions that I ask investors/ Can Give You a Reason to Succeed
traders who come to me for coaching is, I know a number of individuals who gave
What brings you joy in your life? The up successful careers in the markets because
answer to this question should just pop they had no reason to be successful. There
out. After all, successful investors/traders was nothing in their lives that they wanted to
are highly goal oriented, disciplined, and support, to nurture, and to see to completion.
ambitious people. How can you have those
qualities in abundance and not know what Give You the Energy, Enthusiasm
makes you happy? Yet, strangely enough, and Perseverance to Keep Going
a fair number of people cannot answer this Joy is the juice in your veins, the lift in
question. your step, and the air under your wings. Its
Okay, Adrienne, you say, suppose Im what keeps you working on that system and
one of those people who doesnt know what finding the answer to that nagging problem.
brings them joyWhat does that have to do
with making money in the markets? Combats Depression and Pessimism
The answer is that if you do not know what Negative emotional states can cause a
brings you joy, it is very likely that you are trader to miss trading signals and fail to take
not going to be able to sustain a long and advantage of opportunities. Pessimism can
successful career. Why? actually result in depression, and can also
deepen and extend a depression. Depression,
The Things that Bring You Joy: on the other hand can put a rapid end to a
trading career.
Can Sustain You When Things go
Bad Make You a Joy to be Around
When you are having a bad day, when you A spouse who only sees you when you are
have experienced a serious trading loss, when feeling joyless can begin to feel that you are
you are feeling depressed because a close a liability in her life. He or she may need to
friend died, when your son wrecks your car, fill life with the company of those who make
or when you begin to question what life is all life happy and pleasant. After all, dont you
about, you need to have things in your life want to be around people who are happy
that bring you joy. It is important to know and can make you smile and laugh? A good
immediately what they are so that you can and supportive marriage is one of the most
call upon them to remind you that life is still important assets a trader can possibly have.
good, even when some things about life are
going badly.
Contact Information
Contact Name Adrienne Toghraie,
Traders Success Coach
Company TradingOnTarget.com
Website www.Tradingontarget.com
Phone 919-851-8288
Email adtoghraie@gmail.com
Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com
One of the biggest problems we face as traders and investors is knowing when markets are
likely to change direction.
It is well known that the most money is made following trends. However, most trend followers
place stop losses above or below the previous swing or even two swings back. Consequently,
when the trend does change, a vast amount of profits are given back. This can be as much as
half.
This is the case regardless of whether you are holding positions for a few days or several months
and even years.
Hence, the value of being able to identify, in advance, time zones of potential directional change
is immense and can provide a critical edge.
In fact several advantages are created. Having been caught out myself using the two swings
back rule, I set out on a mission.
My journey began back in the 1980s and involved travelling the whole globe. Not only did I meet
with some of the largest fund managers and traders in the world, including a massive player in
the Middle East, I also began firm and long-standing friendships with Nikki Jones and Peter Pich.
Sadly neither Nikki nor Peter are with us today. Nikki owned the collection of the works of WD
Gann and Peter was President of Gannsoft Publishing, the corporation that had developed a very
powerful program called Ganntrader. I went on to work with Peter until his untimely death.
Peter had previously collaborated with Billy Jones, the late husband of Nikki. Were it not for Billy
and Nikki, most of us would not be familiar with the work of W D Gann. Billy acquired the entire
collection from Ganns former business partner, Ed Lambert, back in the 1970s. Several courses
were republished and the word spread. Gann became the phenomenon that we now know it to
be.
Being close to the Jones family, I was confidentially asked to help catalogue the entire vault.
Cody Jones and myself spent the best part of two weeks making discovery after discovery.
Ganns work is now seeking a new home.
From 2002, having gained the support of some investors, we built a team and together we
programmed what I believe to be the most powerful cycle timing system in the world.
The biggest breakthrough came when we created The Crisis Matrix. We listed every major crisis
we could find and placed them on a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet is five feet square by five feet
wide!! The patterns emerging were ones that we had never seen published anywhere before!
We continued to incorporate every type of market timing that we had come upon including
Proportionality
Symmetry
Dynamic symmetry
Static cycles
Dynamic cycles
Seasonality
As well as numerous forecasting techniques.
Another technique came to me after contemplating the subtitle of Ganns novel Tunnel Thru
The Air. This is Looking Back From 1940. We discovered a very accurate forecasting system
by projecting back from the future and this is one of the key techniques programmed into our
system.
As the system is complex and requires some interpretation, we distill this information into The
Market Timing Report.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Ive known Andy for a number of years. Heknows cycles better than anybody Ive ever met! When I saw his
model, I thought thats exactly theway a model should look!
Harry S Dent
NY Times Best Selling Author and Forecaster
+++++++++++++++++++++
The output from this system has been very accurate as The Market Timing Report testifies.
Each month, in advance, we write the key dates down where we expect turns. All but one of the
covers has nailed all the major turning points of the year.
The August edition not only forewarned of the impending US Equity sell-off, it even gave the
date of 18 August as a key cycle date. The rest was history. Using this information our funds
were up 11% during that month. These are just a few of the major successes.
The Market Timing Report is not a stand alone product. It is not the Holy Grail and cannot be
used in isolation.
Focusing on S&P500, Crude Oil, Gold, Dollar Index and EURUSD, it is an excellent tool to fine
tune position and campaign entry and exits when combined with other techniques.
The complexity of the cycle sets involved can be resolved by as shown broken down into
different histogram sets.
The simplest way of explaining this is that wherever there is a histogram spike, a turning
point can be anticipated. The spikes on the lower display are circled in red, as too, are the
corresponding turns. Notice spikes circled into the future. These are times when we can expect
potential trend change.
These would be times when stops should be moved closer or positions partly offloaded, in other
words, profits taken.
For portfolio managers these are occasions when hedging should be increased or profits taken.
Conversely, if no great cycles exist then there is a high probability of the trend remaining intact.
The Market Timing Report enhances probability for traders who use The Commitment of Traders
Reports these can often reveal potential unfolding trends but are inexact in timing.
Results for Murrey Math traders can be greatly improved, too, in the same way as Fibonacci
traders, as mentioned above. You will get a greater feel for which levels will hold.
It goes without saying that this information is vital to all trend followers.
We have found the use of Andrews Pitchforks to work extremely well with The Market Timing
Report. Here is a perfect example:
However, the real question is how to trade such points. This is how we did it.
The time cycle on 5th Dec coincided with the market retesting the upper parallel of the pitchfork.
Our next time target was the 17th Dec and the market traded on the median line (almost
coincident with the .382 retracement) - there is an 80% probability of the market reaching this.
It was a safe stop and reverse with the next time window being the 26th.
The most potent benefit is knowing when an event may be about to occur. Trading INTO a
cycle can be more effective and profitable than trading OUT of the cycle because you are not
trying to pick a top or bottom.
The report also looks at seasonality identifying high probability moves as well as stating
significant daily percentage directional moves.
For example, since 1985, the S&P 500 has been up on the 28th October, on 71.1% of occasions.
This information is valuable. If the market in in an uptrend and there is NO cycle, then the move
has a high probability of continuing up. Conversely, if the market is sitting on support then a
reversal is more likely.
We are offering you a full 28 day No Questions Asked money back guarantee. Just contact us
for a refund within that time.
You can
https://ws227.isrefer.com/go/mtratw/larry/
https://ws227.isrefer.com/go/mtrsatw/larry
We will also be releasing individual annual reports on Wheat, Corn and Soybeans. Please check
the Traders World Site for more information in due course.
Ralph Nelson Elliott left us a great legacy we might have expected or hoped certainly,
in his monograph The Wave Principle I have experienced failures too. Some have
(1938) and it has most undoubtedly stood worked quite well, but then degraded over time
the test of time in its robustness as a tool making them redundant sometime later. The
for price-prediction, especially during the EWP is so dynamic in its predictive qualities
last decade when many other methodologies that there is a human temptation to make
have collapsed. It has its detractors though, bold statements at key intervals but in the
and despite being a strong advocate and heat of the moment, obvious clues get missed.
practitioner of the Elliott Wave principle (EWP) There is one element to the EWP however that
myself, am sympathetic of their dismissive is the key in resolving this issue and that is
remarks. Why is that? Simply put, some big combining Elliotts original concept of Pattern
calls or forecasts have not unfolded in the way Repetition with his less known studies of Ratio
& Proportion.
Figure 1
www.tradersworld.com Nov/Dec/Jan 2016 49
Elliotts Introduction to the applying these to both time and price activity.
Fibonacci Series The common reference used was the golden
Soon after publishing The Wave Principle, ratio, 61.8% or its reciprocal 161.8%. There
Elliott was sent several books, recommendations are scant references of its use but in another
and various articles related to Natural Laws of of his educational bulletins dated August 11,
science & metaphysics by Charles J. Collins, 1941, Elliott described a decennial triangle
director of Investment Council Inc. These unfolding in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages
included works from Professor Arthur Henry that began from the (orthodox) peak in 1928.
Church entitled On The relation of Phyllotaxis The triangle appears as the same structure
to Mechanical Laws and Sir James Hopwood that we know today, consisting of five price-
Jeans The Mysterious Universe. This also swings unfolding into a sideways trading range
led to Elliotts investigation of the Fibonacci enclosed by two narrowing boundary lines
sequence that he referred to in his Educational that form towards an apex. In this article, he
Bulletin dated October 1, 1940 in which he lists the successive waves unfolding to ratios
stated The Basis of the Wave Principle is very of 0.618%, the origin of this formula that we
oldPythagoras in the sixth century B.C., use today - see fig #1.
Fibonacci in the thirteenth century and many C.J. Collins published a supplement to the
other scientists, including Leonardo da Vinci Bank Credit Analyst (Bolton, Tremblay & Co.)
and Marconi, have all shown that they were in 1957 that forecast Primary V could be
aware to some extent of this phenomenon quite sensational, taking the DJIA to 1000 or
Fibonacci was an Italian mathematicianHis more [in the early 1960s] in a wave of great
Summation Series of Dynamic Symmetry speculation. This proved uncannily correct
agrees in every respect with the rhythmic even though it took until 1966 to be fulfilled
count of the Wave Principle. despite this, it is not obvious how Collins
What Elliott read and learnt in the years that measured the advance that turns out to be
followed his receiving those books from Collins the top for cycle wave 3 as quoted in Frosts
ignited his fascination and shaped his theories & Prechters book although we do know that
of the Wave Principle around the concept of the three years later, Bolton used the fib. 161.8%
Fibonacci Summation Series and its inherent (correlative) ratio of the 1949-56 advance
relationship to Ratio & Proportion. to the subsequent low on 1957 to determine
the high to 999 but these men were in
Elliott/Collins/Boltons use of Ratio correspondence together after Elliotts death
& Proportion in January 1948.
Although the Fibonacci summation series As A. Hamilton Bolton stated in his critical
did distil Elliotts concept of Natural Laws appraisal of the Elliott Wave Principle (1960),
governing the progress and regress of his The ratio of 61.8 to 100 and 100 to 161.8
waves, he mainly gave emphasis to the fact became a central part of Elliotts theories
that five waves of trend and three waves of in regard to both TIME and AMPLITUDE.
counter-trend totalling eight are numbers of Thus Elliott pointed out a number of other
the series. Only sometime later did he examine coincidences. For instance the number of
Fibonacci-Price-Ratios (fib-price-ratios or points from 1921 to 1926 (i.e. the first 3 waves)
FPRs), the derivative of the series, and began were 61.8% of the points of the last wave
Figure 2
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So you want to be a trader? Congratulations, you made yourself pull the trigger. Youre in!
Now what?
Hope for the best of course, because I wouldnt have made this trade unless I was going to
be right!
What? Its going the wrong way? Ok, minor price correction. It will turn around soon.
Later Well, if Im going to make any money on this trade I could add to the position and
average in so a small move in my favor would put me in the black. Its done. I Doubled up, or
worse.
How many times have you heard that story? Unfortunately, too many neophyte traders do
exactly that.
The correct way to trade is to plan out your trades in advance; there are only two outcomes, a
profit or a loss. A scratch trade, or break even trade, is a good trade.
First, lets consider loosing trades, failures, bad trades. You will need a stop loss order, and I
prefer to use the phrase protective stop because if filled, that type of order could be a loss or a
profit. When it is first placed, which is at the time you put the trade on, it will create a loss if not
moved in your favor, given the opportunity. By the way, mental stops do not work! So you have
to figure out, at what price, do you place the order? When do you place the order? Exactly what
kind of stop order (there are a few) do you place? How much risk are you taking? How much
money is that? What percent of your capitol are you using? Will I move the stop price under
good and/or bad circumstances? And you could come up with other relevant questions. All of
which and more, need to be thought out in advance.
Now lets talk about good trades, profitable trades. The successes, the ones that prove youre a
financial genius. Again, it is critical that you always think out your strategy in advance. Then get
into the trade and immediately placing orders which will protect you, as well as allow for profit
taking. Do not procrastinate. Document all of your thoughts, probably in a spreadsheet; reasons,
approaches, technical tools that you used, and anything which will help you in the future make
fewer mistakes, and therefore more profitable decisions over time. Now, leave your emotions
behind. Thats the hard part. Theoretically, walk away.
So here we go, the trade is on, and our orders are placed. We sit back and wait. There are only
three things that can happen. The market goes up, down, or sideways. I think we can rule out
sideways because if it happens it doesnt last long and you are not making or losing any money.
Again, lets take the wrong road first. You bought a new long position. So down is bad. You have
your protective stop (i.e. stop loss), sell stop in place, and under normal market conditions
it should be filled at or about the price on the order, or a couple of ticks worse. If you get very
lucky, maybe youll get a better fill. Dont count on it. After all it is a stop market order right?
Not a stop limit which may not get filled at all! Know your orders and how to combine and
place them.
As the price moves the wrong way you start to get stomach problems. You start to think of what
can be done to make things better, whatever that means, and its usually a bad thing. This is
the beginning of the what if thinking process. NO, dont go there. You made a decision when
you put the trade on, what your parameters would be, and what, if anything, you will do under
various situations. So, stick with your game plan and do not change things midstream. Keep
your self-control. If you start to panic midstream, you did not plan things out well enough and
your emotions are starting to take over.
Ok, now prices have moved down to your stop loss, or protective stop and you are stopped
out. What went wrong? Suddenly your stomach feels better and you start regrouping for the next
trade. After all, you know what you are doing, right? And you should not expect all trades to be
profitable, just most of them.
Now: for the good stuff. I think the good trades are actually harder to manage. When you are
having success, greed sets in. You tend to procrastinate, and pat yourself on the back. Things
are great, and you are the worlds best trader, and ignore the trade because you have to go the
bathroom, or get a cold beer. When you come back What The H Happened? That great market
swing was a climatic price swing. In other words: a blow off, a very sharp move in your favor
which you didnt use to MOVE your protective trailing stop market order to lock1[1] in some
profit, which is now a stop profit order, not a stop loss order. Damn, prices reversed 50% of
1 [1]
lock implies that under normal market conditions you should be filled at or close to your designated
price.
www.tradersworld.com Nov/Dec/Jan 2016 55
my profits in minutes and I missed the turn, didnt see it coming. OK, its alright. The trend is
in my favor which will continue, right? So what if its coming back to my original entry price. It
will be OK! Well, now its a loss, and you gave away a very profitable trade at this point. Well
corrections do happen, and the trend, as I perceive it, is still in my favor. Where is my stop
loss order? Oh, I forgot to enter it, because things were going so well, I didnt need it. Now, at
want price, do I put my order? I think you know the end of the story. I hate letting profitable
trades turn into losers.
The Ehrlich Reversal (ER) trading strategies provide trading signals which are structured
for stocks, Futures, FX, and international markets. They have default inputs, but we allow
adjustments to inputs, to conform to short term trader style, or longer term investing
style. Because these signals are designed to trade market turning points they are ideal for
option trading. Our Smart Trailing Stop (STS), is adjustable to accommodate both, short or
long term traders. Larger inputs, will create fewer signals, but frequently reveal longer term
market turning points for investors. While smaller inputs will provide the active trader with
more trading signals and shorter term trades with less overnight exposure. The ER signals
themselves have been developed to catch significant, market tops and bottoms the day they
happen.
Chart #1 shows an ER1 entry the day of the signal. The ER3 entry happened the following day.
Both trades were offset at about the same time and price because inputs were similar but not
exactly the same. Chart #1
If there is a position on and a reversal signal occurs in the opposite direction, we reverse
positions. We even make adjustments for favorable and unfavorable opening gaps. Traders
and investors dont realize as a reversal is happening, that a profound market turn has just
happened until a lot of price movement and or time has passes. I hear, OMG I saw it, and
wondered if it was significant, but didnt do anything about it! all the time. Does that sound
like, Gee I missed the trade?
This exit often happens in minutes. These sharp market swings often take traders and investors
by surprise, and the usual human reaction is to freeze up partially because you are making a
lot of money very fast. You get the feeling that the longer you wait, the more money you will
make. Wrong. Immediate and preplanned actions need to take place. Partially to keep the your
greed from taking over. And partially to objectively capture the market swing. Do you really
think, with several or more positions being effected in different ways, all at once, that you can
do that? Our software can, and does! Trust me after 44+ years in this industry, I have seen a lot!
Its the reason I developed the ER. Been there, done it.
2 [2]
locking implies that under normal market conditions you should be filled at or close to your desig-
nated price.
www.tradersworld.com Nov/Dec/Jan 2016 57
Here is the sequence of events which the Ehrlich Reversal accomplishes:
1. We scan the universe of symbols (many thousands) using filters to find those symbols which
are about to provide our needed trading trigger. Thats right, before it happens. You are provided
the scanner. Those symbols are placed into individual chart analysis windows. And the automated
trading settings are turned on using preferably a Pattern Day Trader designated trading
account. Then we wait.
2. If the expected signal does not develop before the close, nothing happens.
3. If the signal does develop, which it usually does, we enter the trade automatically or you can
select a manual entry. Then our Protective Stop (STS - Smart Trailing Stop) is placed using our
default inputs, or using your personal input preferences. Your personal input preferences would
modestly change a couple factors, but not how the STS generally moves.
A.Some of our trades fail right away and our Protective Stop takes you out with the default
risk which is usually less than 1%, or using your personal risk preferences after you change an
input.
B.Other trades will start to move in your favor and the STS starts to take action moving with
favorable price action immediately beginning to reduce your risk. If our default profit amount
called, Protect Amount, has been reached, our STS immediately locks in your amount.
Or, once our default selected Protect Amount is reached, we lock in that amount. If prices
continue to move favorably, we begin to lock in more profit depending on price movement.
Chart #3 shows an ER3 trade in the Crude Oil futures. chart #3
Since a high percentage of signals provide some initial movement in your favor allowing your
initial Protect Amount to be reached, those trades provide a profit which covers costs, or better.
The idea is dont let a profitable trade turn into a loss. Other trades do better or much better
and eventually hit the STS. Chart #4 shows a short trade in the Forex EURUSD. Chart #4
Because everybodys portfolio size is different as well as youre trading style, you may pick and
choose from those symbols on your Bull or Bear ER Signal Scanner lists. Each day, there should
be several, or many more symbols qualifying. On a very active day there may be many dozen,
we never know.
A special note of introduction from the Editor Larry Jacobs: For the past 18 months I have read
Stan's Daily intra day trading Alerts, seen his notations on the intra day charts that come out
with additional comments discussed in his chat room multiple times a day. I've read his weekly
Blogs, studied his trading videos and spent time in his Chat Room. I have his 3 books. He is a
trading insider from Wall Street like only a special few I have seen before. He is unique. He has
over 50 years of trading experience. There is very little he has not seen.He is a true student of
the game. I believe he is well worth the read below.
My Name is Stan "Ed" Moore & here's why I believe I can help your trading. I have spent over
25 of those years on Wall Street mostly managing a number of trading desks like Gabelli and I
even started my own Brokerage & Money Management firm later, Moore, Grossman & DeRose.
I have handled Billions of $'s over my career Trading & Managing $'s for Institutions & Wealthy
Individuals. I was the inside Partner.
I have spent substantial hard $'s learning & I also directed over $9 Mil in Commissions over
my career to learn from the best of the best on the Street. Cramer came 10 years after me &
bragged he gave away $20 Mil to learn the street's secrets. Very few of you will even begin to
approach that level of knowledge or intelligence I learned & probably Cramer too.We knew all
markets. We were true insiders back then.
I further doubt any of today's mentors served on the Boards of Public Companies like I have.
I doubt any of them ever put up a bid for a NYSE company like I did with Holly Sugar in 1986,
won seats on the Board & sold Holly to a Competitor and that move made $10's of Millions for
our clients. I was truly one of the earliest "Active Investors". I could have continued along those
lines but trading was my passion...and still is.
I wrote the first of my three trading books,"Rhythm Of The Markets", while I was Director of
Technical Research of a NYSE brokerage firm. It was endorsed by some of the biggest names out
there at the time.My second book, "Option Magic," is still a "Big Time" winning option trading
strategy,especially with every week being option expiration. The third "The Definitive Trading
Bible" contains everything you ever wanted to know about trading, but you did not know where
to find the answers.It holds the secrets to untold wealth for those traders wanting to learn most
of the insider secrets still not really known,let alone taught, by anyone else out there.
Lastly, only a true handful of mentors have done great things for traders like you. I have done it
all... I use Fibonacci to read price like I had a GPS on my desk every day. I wrote about this over
25 years ago,and I still think only a handful of traders know anything about it, even mentors
teaching Fibs for more than 40 years. There's a lot more. Please read on.
The MO Nails Tops & Bottoms of Trading ranges.It's "Magic." Did you not know all this time you
REALLY could predict tops & bottoms with uncanny accuracy? You know this greatly reduces risk,
I'm sure. Well welcome to my New Era world of trading.
Please don't get me started on what "Magic" it holds for trends as well. It can also become a
"Leading indicator". It has 5 different divergences. At worst, it's merely coincident. Yes you can
buy higher lows & sell higher highs all the way up & Vice Versa for declines.So it can let you
know when you start or end a trend as well as keep you in there to the very turn when that
trend ends. See Weekly chat below.
Or call & talk to me and I'll send you free the 40 pages on trend trading from my 3rd book. No
one else ever cracked this trading code so mechanically like I have. It's even better since I added
an indicator to pickup when the Algos are in there too.
Prior to 01/02/2015 we were in a multi year trend up trade on the weekly chart. Later on you
can see it work on different time frames equally well.
Starting in January on the Weekly S&P cash Index Chart below the MO showed and said top of
a Trading Range at every rally high. We had a 7-8 month huge trading range. The Daily chart
confirmed the Actual top July 20th with an overbought reading, not Jammed.(You can get the
definitions of both jammed, overbought or oversold).
There was an early warning on June 26th (See Daily chart below) with Oscillator signaling
"Leading Divergence". (This indication works over 80% of the Time alone on the Larger time
frames).See the Charts for even more tops & bottoms of recent ranges it nailed too.
Lastly it might surprise you that I do not use stops as you know it. I use time stops. I also
average into losing option trades to earn even larger profits than you can ever imagine.
However,these setups are a whole different subject, for another time.
Just what more can I tell how I do what I do. Just below is who I was nearly 10 years ago,as told
by a new student after seeing me in live action.
See a his comments. I hope I am at least 10 X's better today. Wait until you see all my recent
training videos.
I still find this hard to believe even today,just how hard It is to succeed in this game, especially
when most traders have no idea what they don't know about their game.
My problem was, I did not know how much I really knew. Once I started writing my third
book(which took over 2 years to write) I started to really understand what is was I knew and
could finally explain it to you. I heard many times in my career you only become good at
something when you write and/or teach the subject. Teaching you these last 25 years has made
me the trader and mentor I am today.
From Charlie C:
"I first met "Ed" at a "technicians conference" in Florida on January 20, 2006. I give you the
date because it was an incredible day in the markets. It's also how Ed made his first impression
on me, and many others as well.
The "trader" hosting the conference had billed this day as one during which he and Ed would
trade live expiration week OEX options. He calls these options "White Lightning." There were
There were endless data and computer glitches. Then suddenly everything was working, and
the S&P's had gapped 5 points higher. Ed explained it was expiration related only. But sadly,
our bullish host decided there would be no trading. He said it was no big deal anyway because
it would likely be a flat market from here. I was crushed. There was a groan in the crowd.
Indeed, it felt like most of us came to see Ed trade options real-time.
That morning there was also news about Iran, and it didn't sound good. The host explained we
don't trade news, that it didn't matter. Audience agreed. He then explained his method for a
few minutes . . .
Ed stood up, and everything changed. In no uncertain terms, he reeled off the news about Iran,
why it was bad, what it meant for the markets, why it wasn't priced in to the markets, and what
would probably happen. This too he explained in no uncertain terms: the markets were priced
for perfection. Since it was options expiration, if the S&P were to break down from current
levels, it would break hard because the professionals would sell it to make sure all the in the
money (ITM)outstanding calls go out worthless. He gave a specific level, that if violated, would
send the market that day into a free-fall.
In front of 200 people that had just heard this would likely be a flat day, this was a lot of
interesting information.
I don't think he wanted to embarrass his host. He said if you put a gun to his head he would
buy puts. Then he outlined the "best" Risk/Reward trade for us to consider doing. Again, no
uncertainty. Sell 75 E-minis, go long 100 OEX at the money(ATM) calls. They were trading
at $1.50. If the market broke down, he'd likely earn $40-$50,000. If the market bounced, he
could make $5-$10,000. And if it stayed where it was for next 2 hours, he'd lose $5000. Given
the news, the latter wasn't even remotely possible.
Notice what's going on here: fundamentals, news, tactics, technicals, money management, risk
control, expectations. All in about 30 seconds. I now know, that's exactly how fast his mind
works.
There was a shift in the room. Everyone was stunned. Who is this guy? It was incredible.
Hands went up. Everyone wanted to know more. I wanted to know more! But our host only
wanted to talk more about his own methods.
January 20, 2006 -- the day the S&P closed down over 24 points from the opening high, in what
was "supposed" to be a flat market. The day you would have made almost $50,000 if you put
on the trade Ed suggested and held it into the close, over $80,000 if you did it at the opening.
If you bought $.40 out of the money(OTM) puts he recommended much earlier, they closed
over $9.00 or 20 X's your money. I thought "Wow, at the very least I could've made 10 X's my
total risk! I wanna start right now!" That was the day I became determined to earn my PhD. in
trading with Ed.
So . . . have I graduated yet? No. Not even close. Has it met my expectations? Ha -- it's
exceeded them by multiples. To trade any other way at this point would seem sophomoric.
Whether you want to be a swing trader, a day trader, or just a better trader, Ed's instruction
will help you succeed. Just one page out of his manual, a single page that took over 2 years to
write, is worth his fee alone. His custom oscillator, a mathematical blend of over 10 different
analysis techniques, is worth his fee alone. His daily instructional alerts and coaching (where else
can you tap 40+ years of experience)? Priceless.
More importantly, he sets up trades well ahead of time to help you earn money while you're
learning. "You can earn while you learn" is the way he puts it.
I've seen his methods ride trends, pocket seemingly endless points from boring range bound
days as well as wild, choppy volatility, all with equal aplomb. He tells when to go for the jugular
and when to stand aside. He doesn't try to impose his will upon the market. He lets the market
tell him what to do. Best of all, he teaches you how to do it too. It doesn't happen overnight.
But when it does amazing!!"
From Charlie C NH (Charlie C's Email address is available upon request.)
Now I spend a considerable amount of time taking as much of the risk out of trades so you can
learn to trade real size for the first time. Imagine what trading 50/100 E's would be worth to you
financially when you are now a 3-5 player.It doesn't happen overnight.
Above Charlie noted a hedged trade long Index calls & Short E's. If this trade was attempted
earlier you could have earned over $80,000. I'm trying to give you all the potential Profit of the
trade setup "with only a fraction of the risk if you are wrong". I am not wrong often.
Flash Forward: Recent comment about Aug 26 2015 wipe out day The man who made a billion
dollars on Black Monday sums up his strategy perfectly in this excellent FOX Business clip
Then and only then do we attempt to take $'s out of both sides of the trade here. We have been
winners on both sides over 60% of the time. Furthermore, NET trading has not experienced any
losing trade setups in the Chat Room doing 13-15 of these news release trades a year since I
started teaching this methodology over 7 years ago. This is still only a fraction of what I teach
but by far the biggest profit generator of NET trading. Now below we have a perfect example.of
what I am talking about.
The recent week ending 10/02/15 we setup a trade long calls and short E's,going into the Friday
Jobs Number. We were long by the Thursday close multiples of 10 slightly ITM calls for $1.30 &
Short 2.5 E's for every 10 calls. Now See the 10/02/15 5 minute chart. Overnight the E's rally
even higher. Now see below my first Email alert Friday before Job numbers come out at 8:30 AM
EDT. My Copy's below
From: EASYRYHTHM@aol.com
To: easyryhthm@aol.com
Sent: 10/2/2015 8:16:21 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Alert Notes Take your Chances read below.Stan M
Fellow Friends,
Goldman forecasts non farm payroll growth of 215 k in September, above consensus
expectations of 200 k by about 0.3 standard deviations of a typical surprise. Noting that August
payrolls were likely distorted downward by seasonal bias last month and may be revised up,
Goldman expects the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1% (and earnings growth to slow).
However, judging by the collapse in September's regional Fed surveys I have read, today's
"most important" payrolls data ever could be a massive miss.
Going in for every 10 long Calls and because we are higher overnight I'm now short 4 E's(
Be alert a negative reaction to the employment data would still be expected to garner interest
from buyers toward 1903 and 1894. In fact, I'd be careful turning too bearish until price begins
to drop and hold below 1894 and Thursday's 1890 intra day low. I'm a buyer of calls or E's
starting at the 1903 area and scaling in.
From: EASYRYHTHM@aol.com Alert #2
To: easyryhthm@aol.com, alertemailstorage@neweratrader.com
Sent: 10/2/2015 8:59:40 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Alert Note Thank You GS. Stan M
At least we know why the E's rallied so much. Thanks GS. We went up against the Big Boys &
won again.
If you only owned 300 calls($40,000)after selling half late Thursday, You could have made nearly
$240,000 on the 120 E's you were short. Our OTM Calls now should open around $.50 Looking to
buy more under there.(They hit $.40 after the opening)
I couldn't have tipped you any better than in the first alert when I went to 10-4 after I saw the
new rally highs & thought possible soft number too.
Good Trading,
Stan
Well the E's Dropped over 40 points in the next 90 minutes. That's $2.000 profit per short E.
The Calls traded as low as $.40 If you added more calls as suggested under $.50 near the lower
lows, these closed at $5.00 by days end. Our $1.35 calls plus our new purchases under $.50
gave us a nearly 8+ times return!!!
If you added 1,000 more calls to your existing long position, you would be only risking 20%
of what you made on the short E's or you could have even used the profits from the sale of
half your calls on Thursday. See Chart 4 below. Either source of funds could have made over
$500.000. This is "parlaying" at a NET best.
Again, NET Trading Scores a huge hit with the short E's & comes back with an even bigger long
call win. NET scores on both sides again. Just think, over 90% of those trading "haven't a clue as
to how to trade news & constantly get beat up".So far we have won big every time. Not many do
this and if they do, they do not teach it.
See Friday's 5 minute Chart. We spent 90 minutes going down over 40 points & 6.5 hours going
up over 60 points.This is a NET Dream Trading Day. Just look at the Oscillator. It got Oversold
near opening and not Jammed. Then it spent most of the Day Jammed/44 telling us to just buy
Looking back,I have tried to retire from mentoring a few times over the last 15 years, but they
keep sucking me back with new and better profit making opportunities than before. I will now die
trading in front of my screen. Once the Indexes went to trading weekly expirations 10 years ago,
we NET Traders died and went to trading heaven.
This is what NET really lives for every Friday..On some Fridays there are times when you can
control an E contract worth over $100.000 for as little as $10-$20. Think about this now.
Imagine long 1000 calls for $20,000 you are controlling $100,000,000 of equity that moves
today over 1%,or $1,000.000. You are short 300 Es that then decline 20 points and you are
$800,000 to $900,000 richer or vice versa long. So putting up only $35,000 lets you have your
cake & eat it too. 90% of the trades are legged to too mitigate any early losses.This trade serves
to reduce the option risk and maximize profits
In addition,theres a whole lot more in New Era that we do on a daily basis. To learn this go to
HTTP://neweratrader,com and sign in for free information and just maybe I will give you a free
30 days of alerts, blogs, or everything I write and chat about. Talk to me.Take your current
trading skills to levels you could only dream about. Make more money in a news trade during
one week than most traders can make in a couple of years See Thoughts above. You can do this
starting with less than $25,000 in capital.
In summary, How would you like to learn how to read the message of the market nearly every
day and be able to earn in only a week,a middle 6 figures with a minimum of risk and with
a modest amount of money,18 times a year just trading prior to key news announcements?
Realistically, early on expect to earn much less. However,just think more about the 2 years down
the road of what you could be earning then.
Hows about playing in the worlds biggest Casino & every time you sit down at the table the
odds are in your favor up to 90%? Try this in Vegas Baby and you will lose your "ASSets."That's
what NET is all about. We do not ever gamble anymore
If for any reason you feel this has been a waste of your time.... Pick up your phone and tell me. I
will send a $25 check to your favorite Charity. However, just on the chance you might like what I
have to say, call me too and let's see if and how I can help you make the money you deserve.
You will be amazed at how inexpensive my mentoring is & how much it can make for you.!! Call
Today!!
As I have previously mentioned, Sepharial and Gann travelled to India in the late 1800s and
early 1900s. Sepharials teacher was Helena Petrovna Blavatsky (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Helena_Blavatsky). Blavatsky was responsible for bringing the spiritual concepts of Hinduism to
the west. She died on 8th May 1891 - just as the astrologer Sepharial predicted,
Ganns TTTTA (The Tunnel Through The Air) was written exactly 36 years and 1 day (9th May
1927) after her death (36 x 4 = 144). There are 36 decants to a circle.
A lot of the authors on Ganns reading list were members of Blavatskys Theosophy Society
founded in New York in November 1875. Blavatsky moved to India in 1880, it is likely that she
suggested Sepharial also travel to India.
The square of nine calculator most are familiar with, has March 21st (or East) on the left, with
the number1 in the middle and the number 2 to the left of 1.
Another chart - the square of four - has 1 in the middle and 2 to the right - so going in the
opposite direction. This is Ganns Master Price and Time Chart. Gann has each box going up in
12 points. For example, box 30 has 360 in it (30 x 12 = 360). This is the chart Gann used for
Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, Wool and Grains.
Hindu astrology ingress charts start at April 14th each year due to the precession of the
Equinoxes. If you start at March 21st, 24 degrees must be deducted off each planet to equal the
Hindu system. Most people make the error of counting from this date as a seasonal pattern,
The square of nine is broken into 16 parts of 22.5 degrees each, (16 x 22.5 = 360). Starting
at April 14th, the correct dates are May 7th, May 30th, June 23rd, July 16th, August 9th,
September 1st, September 24th, October 17th, November 9th, December 1st, December23rd
January 14th, February 5th, February 26th and March 21st. These dates are fixed each year. They
are close to the dates pictured on the chart above because 22.5 degrees is close to 24 degrees.
However, over time the dates will digress further and further apart (1 degree ever 71 years).
The western and eastern Zodiacs have not been the same since around 297AD
The number of each of the 22.5 degrees also adds up to nine. For example, 22.5 is 2+2+5 = 9,
45 is 4+5 =9 (1+2+3+4 +9 = 45 = 9), 67.5 is 6+7+5 = 18 which equals 9, and so forth -
get the picture?
I have printed out 16 Mundane Astrology charts showing the dates when the Sun ingresses into
these 22.5-degree points throughout the year.
I did a chart for Chicago. However, a separate chart would need to be done for each trading
centre. Using the square of nine chart for Wheat, its necessary to look first at Mercury as that is
a significator for grains, as well Virgo, which is ruled by Mercury.
This year Mercury is at 4 degrees Aries, therefore a change in trend would be on April 18th, 4
days or 4 degrees past April 14th.
For a change in trend you can use the fixed days above by adding 4 days to each of them. This
If you have read TTTTA you would notice that Robert Gordon was born under the Astrological
bible sign of Issachar. Issachar is represented by Gemini and its governing planet Mercury. It
means price - and Robert would have to pay the price.
If you look at price, you would take 4 cents a bushel and keep adding 22.5 to give you the price
resistance and support levels. For example, 4 plus 22.5 = 26.5 etc.
Because the wheat price is above $3.60 and below $7.20 we start at 360 degrees. This gives
364, 386.5, 409, 431.5, 454, 476.5, 499, 521.5, 544, 566.5, 589, 611.5, 634, 656. 5,679 and
701.5 degrees However, these levels are only good for one year as Mercury will be in a different
place on April 14th 2016.
(I also discovered that planetary hours have lot to do with the planetary movments into their
own Naksahtras. Naksahtra being the term for lunar mansion in Hindu astrology For example,
Mercury moving into 106:40 degress, 226:40 degrees and 346:40 degrees and it happens to be
a Wednesday.. however, explanation of this must wait for another article.)
Before we go any further it is necessary to outine some history in regard to Wheat prices and
His also kept charts on the production of commodities (bushels produced) with cycles marked on
them. This why he called himself an Economic Forecaster rather than a Financial Astrologer. He
knew how bad most Astrologers are.
March 13th 1848 and February 18th 1859 are two charts I know Gann had for the C.B.O.T.
However, he may also have used April 3rd 1848, which was when the forward cash contract
began trading.
Wheat futures did not start trading until 1877. Cash wheat first traded in 1841 This is the date
Gann started his Permanent Wheat chart table. Starting at 1842 the chart goes up in columns
of 12. For example, the top of column one is the year 1853. 1986 was 144 years (12 x 12) from
1842. This marked a big crash in commodities and wheat. Also 1842 was the year of the Great
Mutation Chart of the Jupiter/Saturn cycle. If we add 24 to 1986 we get to the low in 2010, the
next 12 years is 2022. Half of 12 is 6 years, which gives a low in 2016. A low in prices results
in farmers walking off the land as banks do a big land grab. The table enclosed is from 1842 to
2129 or 288 years, this should see you out.
Below is a Wheat Production and Yield Chart from 1866 to present. This is like the chart Gann
would have drawn by hand.
Back to Financial Astrology and most are familiar with the twelve signs of the zodiac. As I said
above zero degrees starts on April 14th each year - so you have to know the bullish/bearish
planets and bullish/bearish signs as an over view. Break this down into Naksahtras (Lunar
Mansions) or 13 degrees 20 minutes and then into smaller Hindu degrees for short-term trading
which are called Dasas of 3 degrees 20 minutes. These also have Teji and Mandi readings as well.
Aries: - Teji
Taurus: - Teji
Gemini: - Mandi
Cancer: - Mandi
Leo: - Teji
Virgo: -Mandi
Libra: - Mandi
Scorpio: - Teji
Sagittarius: -Teji
Capricorn: -Teji
Aquarius: -Mandi
Pisces: -Mandi
Sun: - Teji
Moon: - Mandi
Mars: -Teji
Mercury: -Mandi
Jupiter: -Mandi
Venus: - Teji
Saturn: -Teji
Rahu: -Teji
Uranus: -Teji
Neptune: -Mandi
Pluto: -Teji
Evidently, if you have the all the Mandi Planets in Mandi signs, the markets will fall. Visa versa,
if you have all the Teji Planets in Teji signs the markets will rise.
So what do we have for April 14th 2015? We have the Sun in Aries (Teji planet in Teji sign),
Moon in Capricorn (Mandi planet in Teji sign), Mars in Aries (Teji planet in Teji sign), Jupiter in
Cancer (Mandi planet in Mandi sign), Venus in Taurus (Teji planet in Teji sign), Saturn in Scorpio
(Teji planet in Teji sign), Rahu in Virgo (Teji planet in Mandi sign), Uranus in Pisces (Teji planet in
Mandi sign), Neptune in Aquarius (Mandi planet in Mandi sign), Pluto in Sagittarius (Teji planet in
Teji sign).
When the Sun goes into Aries, Mars becomes the Significatior; Mars is at 15 degrees Aries in its
own sign. When the Sun goes into Taurus, Venus becomes the Significatior etc.
Remember this is based on the first chart of the year out of 16 charts. These charts are in parts
of three weeks. This is why Gann taught to use just the three-week swing chart. If you do not
have the same understanding of this as I do, the square of nine charts will make your head spin.
You need to study this over time (i.e. a life time).
Sepharial in his book suggested that you track all Mars out to Pluto conjunctions and oppositions.
These were important cycles. Gann had these cycles marked in his Ephemeris.
The fourth house in this chart has Venus opposite Saturn, which means farmers, will suffer with
lower prices and bad crops in the USA. Gann said when the price is in Scorpio it is bearish. This
is 240 to 210 plus the multiplies of 360 added to it - so below 600 it is bearish, Saturn is at 10
degrees Scorpio or 220 degrees - so being below 580 it is weak as well.
On the Square of Nine chart Mercury is at 4 degrees - the number 4 is on the Cardinal cross, so
the numbers above 4 are,15, 34, 61,96,139,190, 249 and 316. These give the degrees of 15
Aries, 4 Taurus, 1 Gemini, 6 Cancer, 19 Leo, 10 Libra, 9 Sagittarius and 16 Aquarius.
These dates are April 19th, April 30th, July 6th, July 23rd, August 16th, November 5th,
December 12th, and March 21st 2016.
The other first Chart of the year is the Hindu Lunar year. This starts with the New Moon on
March 20 2015. It also happens to be a Total Solar Eclipse and the Eclipse is in the second house
of money at 5 degrees
Pisces rules national revenue, taxation, banks, exchanges and trade. The eclipse is in a water
sign and will therefore bring excess rain, damage from floods, a high death rate with the labour
class likely to suffer. Eclipses like this do not give a good start to the year. The eclipse at 5
degrees Pisces is 335 degrees. This is square the ingress chart at 4 degrees Aries where Mercury
is located, and gives the date of October 17th which at 335 degrees, is opposite the zero degrees
ingress chart of April 14th 2015.
When you place the circular overlay at the 335 point it squares the price of 1280 - the all time
high of December wheat futures. The high date of March 13th in 2008 plus 2626 days (which is
the number of days square the high price and opposite the eclipse number of 335 on the square
of nine chart) is October 22nd 2015. Uranus was at 5 degrees Pisces on the 13th March 2008 and
the eclipse falls on this point at the high.
On the 17th October we happen to have Mars conjunct Jupiter at 19/20 Leo, which is 139
Scorpio is the natural ruler of the eighth house and Saturn is there all year, Mars rules the eight
house. This indicated extreme bearishness in this period. 335 lines up with the price numbers of
412, 497, 590 etc. The lowest level December wheat has been since 2008 is 439. This is likely
to be broken and then head back to the 1999 lows of 230. The market is making lower tops and
lower bottoms; this is bearish also, (a basic Gann rule, which some people dont even get.)
On the day count the numbers are at: 7, 20, 41, 70, 107,152, 205, 266 and then 335. These
dates from the solar eclipse on March 20th 2015 are 107 days July 5th, 152 days August 19th,
205 days October 11th, 266 days December 11th and 335 days February 18th 2016.
The main ingress chart needed is the four at the cardinal cross, then the four at the fixed cross.
These are 90 degrees apart and 45 degrees apart. It is necessary to look at the 22.5-degree
ingress charts for the 3-week period you are studying as I explained above.
Because the Lunar New Year is in Pisces and the ascendant is Capricorn - the ruler being Saturn
for Chicago - look at the aspect to Saturn during the year. The Eclipse is in the second house.
This is the money house and Venus, which also rules grain prices, rules the second house. You
must also look at all the New Moon and Full Moon Lunations during the year as well.
If we just look at Mercury aspecting Jupiter (a bearish planet) in the New Year chart we get the
following dates: April 21st, June 27th, July 8th, July 15th, July 30th (which is most important),
August 16th, August 26th, September 10th, September 25th, October 23rd, November 10th,
November 29th, 9th December 9th, December 19th and February 24th 2016 (which is also very
important).
The Hindu year is 2072, which equals 2015 starting on 14th April. The rule for grain is 2072 years
x 2 = 4144 3 = 4141. Divide by 7 = 591.5, the remainder of 5 means it will be a happy year
for grain and the prices will fall.
2015 is the 29th year of the 60 year cycle, which is called Manmatha. The Hindus Yugas go back
millions of years. The last cycle started in 3102 B.C when Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions with other
cycles were close to zero Aries.
It is interesting to note that in TTTTA Gann said he made his greatest discovery on June 19th
1927. The last Jupiter/Saturn at closet to zero Aires was on June 19th 1821. The last one was
on 15 February 1941 at 16 degrees Aries. There were three - August 8th and October 20th 1940
due to retrograde motions. This could be what Gann was referring to in the title looking back
Constellation
Sun Krittika, U. phalguni, Uttarashada
Rohini, Hasta, Shravana
Mars Mrigshira, Chitra, Dhanistha
Ardra, Swati, Satbhisha
Punarvasu, Vishakha, P. bhadrapada
Pushya, Anuradha, U. bhadrapada
Ashlesha, jyestha, Revati
Ketu Magha, Mool, Ashwin
P. phalugni, Purva Ashada, Bharani
This year is likely to be both good and bad. People are likely to enjoy prosperity but with some
uncertainties. This years lord is Venus, this means there will be plenty of sugar, barley, wheat
etc. and prices will fall.
There is a danger of rains, natural calamities and earthquakes especially after September 2015.
Metals will also collapse which will push the $US higher and force the Euro to fall further.
The sixty Samvatsars are divided into three groups. The sak Samvat number is found by
deducting 135 from the current year of 2072, this equals 1937. Number 29, or in the 29th year,
you can find the basis for the start of the Jupiter cycle. 29 divided by 12 = 2.4, so you count the
fraction, which is four. Therefore it is the fourth month from Aquarius, which is Gemini.
Gemini is ruled by mercury, therefore Grains. Sepharial explored a similar idea in his book
Hebrew Astrology, in which the planets ruled for 36 years and 432 years - all numbers related
to 144.
The Hindu years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 are all bad years for business. The sixty-
year cycle started in 1986, which was the crash in commodities. If you take multiplies back of
60 years from 1986 you get 666 a bible number signifying the year of the beast. This is 1260
years ago (also a bible number.) This is time, times and half time as referred to in he Book of
Daniel. Time being 360 is the average of the Sun and Moon together. Hence why there is 360
degrees to a circle (354.36 days + 365.25 days = 719.61 divide by 2 = 360). This also explains
the figure of man as depicted by Leonardo da Vinci, of 144 degrees 5 x 144 = 720.
So the number nine is important. The numbers on the square of nine chart are 9,18, 27, 36, 45,
54, 63, 72, 81, 90, 99,108, 117, 126,135,144,153,162,171,180 etc.. My hand draw chart goes
to 6889. You can convert all these numbers to Hindu Astrological degrees, which are 9 Aries, 18
Aries, 27 Aries, 6 Taurus and so forth.
Mars is at these degrees, on May 12th at 6 degrees Taurus, May 25th at 15 degrees Taurus, June
7th at 24 degrees Taurus, June 21st at 3 degrees Gemini, July 4th at 12 degrees Gemini, and July
17th at 21 degrees Gemini. This is a very important date for this year as it is the square of 81 (9
x 9). The number 81 is on the 315-degree line, (see below.)
The 81-degree line also has the number 315 in line. 81 days from April 14th is July 4th. There is
nothing in the universe but mathematical points, as Gann would say.
You would notice that around the Square of Nine are also hours of the day. Zero degrees is 6:00
AM. 22.5 degrees is 7:30 AM, 45 degrees is 9:00 AM, 67.5 degrees is 10:30 AM, 90 degrees
is 12:00 PM, 112.5 degrees is 1:30 PM, 135 degrees is 3:00 PM, 157.5 degrees is 4:30 PM,
180 degrees is 6:00 PM, 202.5 degrees is 7:30 PM, 225 degrees is 9:00 PM, 247.5 degrees is
10:30 PM, 270 degrees 12:00 AM, 292.5 degrees is 1:30 AM, 315 degrees is 3:00 AM and 337.5
degrees is 4:30 AM.
The only time you can use these times is when sunrise is at 6:00 am, which is April 14th and
October 17th each year. This is the time you would count from sunrise each day if you were going
to use the calculator for day trading. For example, on the first 22.5 of the suns ingress which is
the same as 7:30 AM or May 7th each year I would look at the chart for sunrise in Chicago that
day. Sunrise on that date is at 5:39 AM, this is 21 minutes short of 6:00 am, and so 7:30 AM
becomes 7:09 AM
(7:30 - 21 = 9) on May 7th. Wheat futures start trading at 8:30 AM, which is in between the
22.5 line and the 45-degree line. 8:30 AM minus 5:39 AM is 171 minutes, 171 minutes after
sunrise.
There are 1440 minutes in 24 hours or a day. This is not exact of course, but good enough for
this exercise. Every 22.5 degrees = 90 minutes (16 x 90 = 1440) or a square. So every 90
degrees you have covered 360 minutes or a circle - or on this calculator, from 6:00 AM to 12:00
PM.
The 43-degree is 13 degrees Taurus, which is ruled by Venus, so this is the significatior for 8:30
AM. Venus is at 65 degrees or 5 degree Gemini on this day. 65 is opposite 171 minutes and
square May 7th. At 8:30 we have Gemini rising, and if we look at Mercury (the ruler of grain and
Gemini) it happens to be at 13 degrees Taurus - another line up.
This is how real time and price come together and why Gann took this chart into the pit for day
trading. This line could have longer-term effects, as grains and all commodities continue to keep
falling. The C.R.B index is to get to 180 or lower by the time the cycles finishes. As I said above,
many farmers will be forced off the land by the banks as they make their big land grabs, it is
part of the system of the rich and powerful.
There are 27 lunar Mansions of 13 degrees 20 minutes, 27 x 13:20 = 360 degrees. As you can
see below the degrees overlap normal astrology signs of 30 degrees each. Each 40-degrees
there is a pattern as well because
40 x 9 = 360. This is why the square of nine fits the Hindu system well.
Different planets signs and lunar mansions rule each commodity. In the information above,
where I refer to 43 degrees of the circle, you will see that it is ruled by the Moon, which is
bearish (No.4). The Moon does not hit there until about May 18th 2015. In relation to the
information contained in this article, Mars also hits this point on May 18th 2015. As mentioned
above, Hindus broke the circle into even smaller degrees called Padas of 3 degrees and 20
seconds, of which there are 108. This is equal to the number of Gods Hindus worship, (108 x
3:20 equals 360.) There are four Padas to one Naksahtras.
THE THREE WEEK SWING CHART
Because three weeks is 22 to 23 days which is exactly the 22.5 degrees of a circle, (365.25 / 16
= 22.82 days), you can use the three week swing charts as a guide line as well. For most people
it is easier to simply use the three day-swing chart. Keep it simple.
To understand Gann fully you need to understand the Secret Order which Gann used. This
is what Sepharial called the Secret Progression. It took me twenty-five years to work this out
alone. I may be a little slow but this is why Gann said his secrets are not for sale. You will not
find this information on any website and my knowledge is not for sale.
This also why Ganns family did not receive his secrets - they did not do the work - especially
John Gann who worked with his father for a while. There is no such thing as Gann made easy -
although this is what people would have you believe. Gann is not easy and simple his processes
are complex and hard, otherwise every Strawman could do it (http://www.yourstrawman.com),
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ME7K6P7hlko.
Do your own research, no website is going to help you. If you are serious about studying Gann
you must read all Sepharials books, plus the other publications on Ganns reading list . This is
just a start. Most astrologers (who I call housewife astrologers) cannot afford one of Sepharials
books; let alone the 30 or so.
Across the world, most people teaching Gann are only covering a small fraction of his knowledge.
This includes me.
Take the chance and experience how you can focus on trade situations with a higher probable
outcome; how you can decide for your trades based on numbers, using simple math; how you
can put together clearly defined trading plans; how you can manage risk and position sizing.
A) Activity-Based Trading
The financial markets (stock market, commodities, currencies, and treasuries) are highly
efficient and allow an immediate exchange of assets when the buy- and sell price offered do
match:
You want to buy 10 units of asset-A for $100; if 10-units of asset-A are offered for $100, your
order is immediately filled and you are the proud owner of asset-A, paying $1,000.
Let us go into the real world, picking a snap shot on crude oil futures, where we feel like buying
100-contracts. What is the price we need to offer for getting our order immediately filled?
To answer this question, we need to understand how the exchange for crude oil futures works:
We pick /CL: Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures, traded at the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange).
Taking a snap-shot of the actual offering, we see the following:
Bid: $47.37 x 3; Ask: $47.38 x 4, +$0.51, +1.09% (the price for the crude oil future since
yesterdays close increased by $0.51, which is a 1.09% price increase).
So, you can immediately buy four contracts, when you offer $47.38; however, what would we
need to pay for the remaining 96-contracts, if you wanted your order to be filled right now?
Your 100-contract market order for immediate fill would achieve an average price of $47.42,
consuming the entire offering (Ask Size). If other market participants had a demand for crude oil
futures as well, prices would immediately rise above and beyond the last offer of $47.47.
You might say: Which private investor buys 100-crude oil contracts?
This is for sure a good statement; however, a 100-contract-order is nothing for institutional
investors, who dominate more than 90% of the crude oil futures exchanged: Approximately
300,000 contracts per day.
Thus, if you were able to constantly follow Level-II price information, tracking and tracing the
happening, you would be able to spot and follow changes in supply and demand. Trying to follow
Level-II price change with your own eyes is like going back to the times where traders read price
changes off the tape; however, with the help of an activity-based trading system, we can help
you to spot and follow institutional price changes, real-time and right on your charts:
Graphic-1: Ticker Tape and NeverLossTrading Top-Line 4-hour Crude Oil Futures
Key to success: You only trade when the Odds > 1.5 in your favor, calculated as follows:
Trade Situation-1 on the Chart: (0.75 x 0.9) / (0.25 x 0.8) = 3.0; odds in your favor.
Please check the chart again to notice how at every instance, when the prices reached or
surpassed the dot-price-level, a retracement or reversal took place: Again, this price behavior
is a result of institutional investors shorting or floating supply and thus bettering their inventory
positions. From now on, you can follow these repetitive patterns by using an activity-based
trading system, which helps you to spot changes in supply or demand right from your charts.
In many cases, private investors tend to trade futures in much shorter time frames. Does an
activity-based trading system work there, too?
Let us take a snap shot on a 2-minute chart for crude oil futures:
Again, an activity-based trading system gives you a clearly defined trading plan by portraying
institutional price action on the chart that you can spot and follow: The crowd follows the
leaders, producing a Level-II price change and you are in the position to follow new price
trends and you exit before they end.
What is your take away so far? Activity-based trading systems produce high probability trade
setups, while you only trade when the odds are in your favor, gauging the maximum risk you
can take in a trade.
With a gambling mentality, you would start to risk more when trades do not work, aiming to
quickly make up your losses; however, with a trading mindset, you apply strict rules based on
your chart setups and odds appraisal; calm, calculated, and repetitive, never cutting winners
short and never letting losers rise.
The odds appraisal depends on the strength of your trading system. Commonly, moving
average-based systems (MACD, Bollinger Band, Stochastic..) have an attainment rate of about
55%; high probability-trading starts at a 65% attainment rate and very strong systems produce
above 75% winners; however, the winning percentage alone does not guarantee trading success.
For bringing a directional trade to target, while the price moves in your desired direction, you
need to give your trades an adequate wiggle room, which defines the relation of risk to reward
in a trade.
By the graphic-3, you will have a 10% probability to spot reward/risk setups that have 2-times
the reward to risk or $0.5 risk on an expected $1 reward; however, in 35% of the cases, you
need to give the price a >1.2-times-reward-wiggle-room to come to target; 40% of the time,
you find a 1:1 reward/risk relationship, giving you only in 25% of the cases situations where the
reward is higher than your risk.
Surely, you can go through hundreds of charts; however, you can also use an alert service,
which is helping you to find the specific chart setups you are looking for:
Check out NLT Alerts and click here for a special offerclick.
In the next step, we pair the reward/risk-distribution with the odds calculation for a 55%-, 65%-
, and 75% attainment-rate/probability trading system.
Graphic-4 shows: When using a system with a 55% probability to spot the right direction, in
75% of the trade setups you find, the odds will not be in your favor: Odds-Ratio < 1.5.
This relation drastically changes, when you are using a 65%-probability system, where 80% of
When you are able to trade at a 75% attainment rate, you can really stacker the odds in your
favor by finding 55% trade setups with odds ratios above 2.
We hope, you see the value of what is shared here: In case you remain with a low probability
system (back test it over 100-trades based on clearly set rules), please be aware how you
drastically reduce your productivity rate: returns produced over time.
When we assume the same amount of signals per observed time-unit, and calculate for the three
systems the productivity rate by relating the participation rate with the odds ratio and probability
for success, we come to the following results:
When you are using a higher probability trading system, your productivity rate is 3.4-times
higher when moving from a 55%-system to a 65%-system and 5.25-times higher when moving
to a 75%-system. A 75%-system produces a 54% higher return than a 65%-system.
If you want to experience, how activity-based, high probability trading systems work live,
schedule your personal consulting hour:
C) Money Management
As the next ingredient, we bring money management into your daily routine: Trading is all
about risk containment and risk acceptance. Even so we might make a sound estimation of how
the future price-move shall be, what you have the most control over is the risk you accept in
every trade. In respect to risk containment, day traders have an advantage over swing traders
and long-term investors. As long as day traders do not hold position over major economic
news announcement, their stop is their stop and no additional risk is taken. Swing traders and
Instead of taking a consecutive dollar-risk per trade, we are rather friends of a dynamic
percentage risk.
Let us calculate with a $10,000 account. As a trader, your risk appetite should be between 1%
and 5% per trade: In this case $100 to $500.
Every gain or loss shall dynamically adjust your investment volume, when you are using a
percentage-risk model: Had you gained $1,000, our risk tolerance would be $110 to $550. This
way, you are starting to compound interest and you dynamically increase your gains. In case of
losing $1,000 the risk tolerance per trade is $90 to $450.
Your salt in the soup, you can even use further dynamics by differentiating your risk appetite by
the odds appraisal. To demonstrate what this means, let us take an example of two traders:
Trader-1 takes a constant 3% risk and trades with clearly defined entries and exits.
Trader-2 follows the same concept and accepts an average risk of 3%, adjusted by the odds
appraisal of every chart situation and the probability of the trading system in use.
At a 65%-system, Trader-2 differentiates by the appraised odds and risks between 2.5% and 6%
of his capital per trade, averaging a 3% risk. When using a 75%-system, the risk distribution is
between 2% and 4% per trade, producing an average 3% risk.
The right hand table shows that the dynamically adjusting trader: Trader-2 produces in both
models a higher potential return: +20% when using a 65% system and +9% when using a 75%
system.
Summary:
- Activity-based trading systems produce higher attainment rates by following institutional
money moves.
- Trade with clearly defined entries, exits, and stops, allowing you to appraise every trade
situation.
- Only trade with Odds >1.5; calculated by appraising every trade situation based on (past
With what we shared, we hope that you can increase your odds of winning. Speaking in baseball
terms: You can now calculate, if a trade setup allows you to move from base-to-base or if you
found a setup where you can hit for the fences.
If you like to use a readymade system, which includes all of what was shown here, including a
one-on-one teaching, where we focus on your wants and needs, check the following examples:
In all our NeverLossTrading systems and in TradeColors.com, position sizing models are included
to quickly appraise trade situations. In our latest edition: NLT Trend Catching, we even added a
bar-by-bar trade appraisal in consideration of the expected 1-SPU move (SPU = Speed Unit) and
a stop at the red-horizontal-line drawn on the chart.
Every NLT Trend Catching chart has a SPU-meter on the top-left of the chart, indicating the
expected dollar-move and the percentage-move based on the asset price.
Our trading systems work for all asset classes. To continue with what we had shown before,
please see the below crude oil futures chart:
From the Speedometer bar, we read the following: SPU = $4.18, meaning that the system
calculates an expected price move of $4.18 for crude oil, which would represent a 9.2% price
move. By the trend information being in red, it tells you that crude oil is in an overall down
trend, while it is currently at candle #6 of an up-move with a favorable trade setup, where the
reward is $1.1 to $1 of risk. Without calculating, you read all of what you learned prior from the
top bar off your chart.
In case that a weekly risk of about $4,000 per crude oil futures contract does not fit your risk
tolerance, we can show you how you can still participate in such price moves by considering
related, but different assets, reducing your risk per unit all the way to $50 and you still can
participate in the price move of the commodity, currency or treasury.
Please always consider, we tune all our systems to your wants and needs and today can provide
you with a special offer if you like to sign up for NeverLossTrading Trend Catchingclick and
mention code TWI61 (expires December 15, 2015) to receive your special discount.
In case, you want to start trading with our introductory product: TradeColors.com, you are
always welcome to upgrade later, getting every dollar you spent on tuition for TradeColors.com
acknowledged on the upgrade.
Teaching one-on-one, you are always receiving an executive service at your best available time
and for the assets you are interested to trade or invest in:
If you like to trade stocks, why would you learn about trading live cattle futures; however, if this
is your interest, we tune our sessions accordingly.
Let us pick an NLT Top-Line stock trading example, where at special setups; we focus on 2-SPU
price-moves:
Graph-7: NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart for NFLX (magnified buy-/sell indications)
The 4-Hour NFLX chart shows a SPU measure at the current bar of $3.5, which indicates a
potential return on cash of $3.3%.
You see three buy signals that were confirmed by the next candle surpassing the set price
threshold and we closed the trade either when a 2-SPU price move was concluded or at the 5th
candle, including the trade-initiation-candle.
- Buy> 92.59 was exited at a 2-SPU price move of $3.40 (3.7%-return in one day).
- Buy>95.26 was exited at the 2-SPU goal with profit $4.40 (4.6% in two days).
- Sell<93.57 was exited at candle #5 with a small profit of $0.80 (0.9% in two days).
- Buy>95.19 was exited at the 2-SPU goal with profit of $3.13 (3.3% in two days).
In the above chart, in three out of four trade situations, the rule-based trader was better on,
taking a positive exit at a pre-defined candle-sequence or at a 2-SPU price move: so, in 75% of
the cases you were better on, holding yourself accountable for following clearly defined rules:
make them part of your trading.
Disclaimer
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the
subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in
rendering legal, financial advice, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or
other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be
sought.
Following the rules of the SEC (Security Exchange Commission), we advise all readers that it
should not be assumed that present or future performance of applying NeverLossTrading (a
division of Nobel Living, LLC) would be profitable or equal the performance of our examples.
The reader should recognize that the risk of trading securities, stocks, options, futures can be
substantial. Customers must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal
financial situation before trading. In our teaching of NeverLossTrading, in our books, newsletters,
webinars and our involvement in the Investment Clubs, neither NOBEL Living, LLC, the parent
company of NeverLossTrading, nor any of the speakers, staff or members act as stockbrokers,
broker dealers, or registered investment advisers. We worked out trading concepts we use on a
daily basis and share them through education with our readers, members and clients.
The waves crashing on the beach, the sound of a crackling fire, the birds chirping on a nice
sunny morning. All are beautiful sounds. I would just like to add another to the list. Target
Filled. This sound just fills me with joy.
Hopefully, in this article, I will be able to give the reader some insight on how they can enjoy
hearing the same sound.
Just over a year ago I wrote an article for TradersWorld magazine regarding our EminiScalp
ABL Auto Trade. The information on our website at www.eminiscalp.com, along with the article
as well as previous webinars, resulted in a response by an overwhelming number of eager
traders who were searching for some tidbit of information that could finally put them on the
profitable side of trading.
This current article will briefly review the EminiScalp ABL Auto Trade as well as offer an
example of a simple trading method, a method that has never been tested or traded, to the
best of my knowledge, but referred to only for the sole purpose of illustrating an uncomplicated
approach to trading.
The EminiScalp ABL Auto Trade is designed to look for entries at the extreme areas, the
current high and low. In many markets, the high and low are certainly target areas and new
highs and lows are usually created throughout the trading day.
Many times a trader will watch price move up and assume that price cant go any higher. They
may take a short just because they feel that the move is exhausted. To their dismay, price
continues to rise and the trader gets stopped. This same scenario can also happen when price
moves to the low of the day. Our EminiScalp ABL AutoTrade Strategy is designed to assess a
variety of trading factors when price reaches these areas. When conditions permit, a trade signal
appears. If set for autotrade, the trader is automatically entered into the trade.
A trader has the option of turning the autotrade off. When this happens, the signals will still
appear, but there will be no auto trade entries. The trader has the option of taking these signals
manually if he or she so desires.
An arrow will appear on the bar or candle in which the trade is entered. Once in an ABL trade,
there will be no other ABL entries until the current trade is completed, even if another entry
arrow appears. The trader has the choice of closing the trade right from the screen if he or she
wishes to exit before their trade strategy completes the trade.
What is nice about the EminiScalp ABL is that the trader does not have to know all of the ins
and outs of the instrument he or she is trading. There is no need to review economic numbers,
unemployment data, FOMC, oil inventories, etc. There is no need to check any overnight action
or review Market Profile, or to look at support and resistance levels.
What do you find to be the most difficult aspect of trading? Taking the entry? Staying with your
plan? Exiting a trade early because of emotion? Possibly not knowing where to enter? In talking
with traders over the past years, I find that trading issues encompass a lot of areas.
There are those traders who believe the market is random. Anyone who attempts to trade a random
market is just gambling. As such, it is my belief that the market moves systematically and logically.
Traders may not trade the markets logically, but that does not mean that there is no logic in the market
movement.
If a trader is truly dedicated and has the ability to follow rules and to stay focused, success can certainly
be achieved. There are a variety of ways to read a chart and if the chart is read consistently the same
way, positive results could be achieved. My hypothetical method that I am going to talk about may seem
simplistic, but it is an absolute starting point for those who need a place to begin. What I am going to
introduce may, or may not be profitable, as it is just an example, but if followed, it can be a way to learn
discipline and rule following.
Firstly, let me state that there are trade areas all over the chart. There are trades to be taken
near the high, trades to be taken near the low and trades to be taken at places in between. Of
course, knowing where these areas are is what trading is all about. Even though you may have a
setup at a specific area, it does not necessarily mean that there is a trade event. It all depends
upon where the targets are. If you have tight stops, determining target areas is very important.
Just like traveling, you have a beginning point and a destination. You wouldnt travel south to go
north. You would look for roads and highway access that would point you in the correct direction.
There are times when price may approach the high or low of the day. Any action that requires
Many traders do not have a plan and if they do, it may be too difficult to follow and to adhere to.
So, I am going to throw something out here, what I call a beginners plan. Now, this plan may or
may not be profitable due to a number of variables, which I will attempt to explain. The purpose
of this simple trading plan is not to be profitable, although it certainly could be, but to encourage
focus and discipline, as well as to assist a trader in observing market action within certain trade
areas.
If you took the difference between the current high and low of a particular instrument, and
divided this number by 2, then you draw a horizontal line at this point, and you decided that
you would take a long trade if the price was at least 1 tick above the line, and only if the price
crossed this line from below. If your target was set at 3 ticks and your stop was set at whatever,
and you decided that this was going to be your trading method, then you know what? You have
a plan. Now, you would need to stick to it and trade this plan only. If, down the road, you choose
to add a moving average or a bollinger band, then you are altering your plan and you are not
staying with it. If this method you have devised looks as though it is working for you, then there
would be no need to change anything.
If the price is below the TR and is moving up to it, then plan on a long, only if the following
takes place. The price must move above the TL and when the first bar closes ABOVE the TL, then
prepare for an entry on the close on the very next bar, as long as the close is above the TL. The
same trading entry takes place for going short. As you develop this simple method, you may
want to tweak it a bit, but try and refrain from adding indicators. You want a clean chart whereas
you trade the price, not an indicator.
Lets move forward and set up your trade management. I realize that traders want to squeeze
as much profit from a trade as possible, but without a very good knowledge of how to determine
target areas, this may not be a reality. As much as one would like to get 3 points on a trade, this
just may not happen for a good many trades. A number of years ago I had a trader who came
on board who had purchased a method about one year prior to him contacting me. He explained
that he purchased the previous method because it boasted 2 point targets with 5 tick stops.
In essence, this meant that every time he entered a trade as per the rules of the method, he
expected to realize 2 points. Well, according to him, he was cleaned out within a few months.
I asked him if he had adjusted his target to say 1 point or even 5 ticks, could there have been
a possibility that he would have had more profitable trades. Absolutely, he said, but he was
just following the rules. Rules need to be appropriate for the method. Amending the rules to fit
the method was all that may have been needed in order to make the method profitable. Target
areas vary with every entry and without the knowledge of how to determine target areas, a
trader is certainly at a loss. The way I see it, is if you are not adept in determining target areas,
and if you still insist on trading, it may be a good idea to take smaller and quick profits, and just
do this more times throughout the day.
If you have deep pockets and your emotions do not interfere with your trading, then larger
stops can be considered. But, this scenario is not the norm for most traders. Also, you really do
So, let us return to our simplistic method for some variations on trade management. For this
example, let us select the CL as the market we want to trade. We have our TL on the chart and
we have determined that we want 10 ticks as a target and 6 ticks as a stop. Over a period of 10
trades, we have losses in 9 of them. OOPS!!!, this method is no good. Hey, not so fast. Let us
examine all of these trades to see what had transpired. As you look at all of these trades, you
realize something. Nine out of the ten trades moved at least 5 ticks before the price reversed.
Over a period of a few weeks, you have noticed that this particular scenario is consistent and
that it seems that you can realize a 4 tick profit a high percentage of the time. Actually, this is
not a bad method then. If you had let your frustration overwhelm you early on when you had a
10 point target, this method would have founds its way into the trash barrel.
In my humble opinion, reducing the overload is key to success. I realize that there are traders
who review overnight price action, looks at market profile, review all of the news related to the
particular market, reviews a variety of charts, etc. The list goes on. I am not saying that all of
this information is not pertinent, as it may be for a particular trader. But, if your time is limited
due to a job and family obligations, it may be better to just trade what you see because I believe
that all you have to know is right there on the chart.
Below I have added screen shots of the CL, from this past Columbus Day. Of course, the ABL
does fine with most markets. The purpose of these shots is to illustrate a variety of profit
situations that can be considered.
In the screen shot above, the arrow represents the bar on which the trade was taken. The
black horizontal line represents the current low of the day. Notice how many new lows were
made before the ABL internal conditions decided it was time to go long. From the entry, the
price moved up about 7 ticks before a pullback. If I am not mistaken, the price eventually went
to about 47.47 before the market closed. Now, how many traders would be able to stay in for
The above chart is similar to the previous. The bar closed at 47.17, which was the entry and the
price moved above 47.35. As mentioned previously, unless you are very familiar with determining
targets, your best bet is to take your reasonable profit. Again, there were continued lows until
the ABL decided it was time to enter. Also, dont ever feel that you left money on the table if
you are not part of the complete move. You want to build confidence and reduce the emotion, so
take a set profit or use a trail stop and dont think about what could have been. I had one trader
ask me a while back just how much slippage there is with this method. Firstly, the slippage
is minimal, if at all. Slippage is not a method issue, it is a market issue. Lets look at one more
chart.
Of course, the EminiScalp ABL works just as well for shorts, as well as on a variety of other
markets. Please understand that you will have the occasional stop. But, they can be minimized
by proper and sensible trade management. Although the EminiScalp ABL formula is a bit more
complex than our hypothetical example, it doesnt mean the working with hypothetical methods
such as the TL has no merit. The value is in the simplicity as it encourages a trader to view price
in specific areas rather than have a trader look for entries all over the chart. This helps with the
confidence, focus and discipline.
If, after all of your work, you are still having difficulty with the entries, whether it be emotional
or otherwise, then an auto trade method, such as the EminiScalp ABL may be what is needed.
The only consideration that may have to be addressed is the trade management, which is much
easier than determining entry points.
As I mentioned previously, there are trade opportunities all over the chart, at the extremes as
well as in between. The in between trades require a knowledge of critical areas. If you dont
have this knowledge, it does not mean that you cant profit, because you certainly can. It may
require that you look at trading areas where price is consistently drawn to. Then, look at what
price does at these areas. Start formulating a plan that allows the opportunity for you to take
advantage of what price does. This is not an overnight process. It will take screen time. Being
able to focus on something specific is a great starting point.
If you decide to play around with our hypothetical Trade Line method, keep an eye on the highs
and lows, and see what happens when price reaches them. Once the price reaches one of these
extremes, think EminiScalp ABL, and visualize the arrow popping up and you being entered
into the trade. Watch what price does and then visualize where your profit would be. When you
feel it is time to join the EminiScalp ABL community, contact me. We will be happy to bring you
aboard.
No matter what method you trade, whether it is one you have created or if it is one you
purchased, stay with it and give it a chance. Just try to reduce the clutter, be reasonable with
profit targets, and stay with the plan. It is always uplifting when you hear the NinjaTrader lady
say;
TARGET FILLED.
Email me at info@eminiscalp.com for more information
Back in 1949, investing legend Benjamin Graham eloquently characterized the cyclical nature of
financial markets in his book The Intelligent Investor:
The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified
pessimism.
Today, the emerging field of social media sentiment datasets supports Grahams point of view,
providing a strong empirical foundation for the overreaction bias that is often the driving factor
in cyclical markets. In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social
networking and online communication among market participants for stock market news.
According to many behavioral economics studies, mood can profoundly affect individual
behavior and decision-making. Mood predisposes people toward certain decision-making
processes, and crowd mood can cause events and trends to occur. The ability to find and
quantify the underlying mood trends can enable the informed trader the probability of trade
direction in advance of news events. Positive or negative underlying crowd mood can trigger the
buying, or selling of stocks.
Public sentiment ebbs and flows over time as a function of the general publics disposition and
can be analyzed and quantified as a result. The challenge and objective for this study is to
analyze sentiment and price data for purposes of discovering underlying cycles, in order to make
forecasts and predictions based on historical and current data. The successful analysis of said
data can arm the sophisticated trader with foresight into the progression and turns of the overall
sentiment / mood cycle, and market turns as a result.
Normally, social mood waxes and wanes positively and negatively in the form of dynamic cycles.
Social mood refers to a feeling, emotion or attitude about something, and, of course, it can have
a range of values. Whenever mood is related to corporations or the economy, the character of
events will unfold in the related financial assets.
Sentiment information can be a very useful tool for trading professionals. Historically,
professional traders would listen to the activity on the market floor through a series of
microphones and desktop speakers known as Squawk-Boxes to feel the mood, and anticipate
turns in the markets direction based upon the tone and activity level on the trading floors.
However, due to the advent of electronic and computer trading methodologies, the market floors
have largely moved from people shouting at each other on the market floor, to datacenters with
automated trading strategies and execution platforms. This has rendered the trading desks
At the same time as the markets were moving from human-based to electronic-based trading
activity, social media and internet chatrooms have been undergoing rapid growth. The financial
market conversations which used to happen on the trading floors, are now happening online,
thanks to websites like Twitter, StockTwits and private chatrooms.
Consequently, the team at PsychSignal created a way to mine the data sets from these online
providers, in order to restore the lost connection between the trading floor, markets and traders.
They call their product the Next-Generation robotic Squawk-Box, or SquawkrBOT for short.
The product acts in the same way that Squawk-Boxes used to connect trading pits to trading
floors, but brings the concept to the 21st century by connecting social media datacenters and
trading datacenters to trading floors by complex datamining and language processing algorithms
instead of microphones and speakers.
The PsychSignal SquawkrBOT operates by using a natural language processing engine employing
a linguistic approach, in order to mine raw social mood information related to financial assets.
It does this to learn how the financial trading public feels about specific securities. In this
study, we combine that data, mined from a combination of StockTwits and Twitter data with the
WhenToTrade cyclical pricing analysis tools, in order to decipher and track the dominant cycles
for both live and historical price and sentiment data, going back to 2011. With the pair of tools
working in tandem, we have created the ability to predict and forecast financial market turns in
advance as a result of historical cycle analysis.
The study used sentiment and price cycle discovery algorithms to investigate the current
market conditions, in context to historic data. The objective was to investigate how social media
sentiment can be used to predict financial cycles. In particular, the studys intent was to analyze
how social chatter, pre-processed from PsychSignal, can be used to forecast market turns in Gold
& Silver.
The WhenToTrade cycle algorithms were applied in order to discover the underlying sentiment
and price data cycles, and generate forward-looking cycle predictions based upon those historic
cycle results. The detected cycles are presented as a dominant price cycle (brown line) and
sentiment cycle (yellow line). (See Chart 1)
The algorithms have detected an alignment between both sentiment and price cycles bottoming
out on Aug 27, 2015 with an upward projection through September and October, reaching a
peak by the end of November, which then reverses direction towards the end of the year.
In theory, as with all sentiment vehicles, the scores work as contra-indicators. Thus, extreme
points of bullishness should correspond to market tops, and extreme bearish composite scores
should correspond to market bottoms. This is what we called the hot-spots of maximum
financial risk or opportunity. The sentiment cycles for Gold (and also Silver, please review
the website with all charts) now shows the hot-spot we like to detect of maximum financial
opportunity. We would expect the sentiment to turn during the first half of September and this
should also be reflected in the price of the metals following the sentiment.
Situations like these, where both cycles are in alignment, coupled with our internal alerting
threshold levels can pinpoint important market situations.
However, never trade just a forecast on sentiment alone. You need some more confirmations
before you put money on the line. Therefore, it is important to also analyze the cycles on the
price of the metals. If we can detect an alignment of price an sentiment cycles, we have a valid
signal to enter real trades. This is the classic cycles-within-cycles alignment between price and
sentiment. The following two charts show a more detailed dominant cycle analysis on the price
chart for Gold to confirm the detected sentiment cycle alignment. (See Chart 2)
Another dominant cycle on the weekly chart is also in alignment with the projected cycle low in
the futures.
So we have an alignment of the sentiment cycle with the current price cycles on daily and
weekly timeframe. On top of that, the price cycles are in alignment with the sentiment swings
shown in the beginning of the article.
This is similar to a situation when the music of an orchestra is in tune and vibrates with the
crowd. You know, now it is time to dance. Your feets will click with the beat automatically. In
the financial environment, now the traders finger vibrates with the keyboard to place a trade.
Financial sentiment cycles are like good music you can hear if they are in tune or out of tune.
PsychSignal and WhenToTrade have invented a platform to show if the sound is in or out of
tune.
According to the cycle alignment, the forecast is indicating that a bull cycle for the gold sector
is positioned to start in the beginning of September, 2015. Such cycle alignment on sentiment,
price, daily and weekly charts happening at the same time is usually indicative of a strong signal
with high probability of realization. According to the study, the current cycle position situation
indicates that $GLD is currently at a bear-market bottom, and is likely to see upward price and
sentiment pressure into the November period.
As we deal and follow a real dynamic behavior of cycles, the situation is subject to change
and needs to be updated and reviewed daily. This forecast and the related charts have been
published live in the public forum in our WhenToTrade magazine on August 29th just some days
before the bottom happened in gold. The charts and forecast can be reviewed at the following
link: https://www.whentotrade.com/?p=7624
This article underpins the importance of cyclic research in social sentiment data sets in order to
forecast important market turns. Thus, the combination of state-of-the-art sentiment data from
PsychSignal with the latest cycle analysis and prediction tools from WTT delivers a truly unique
view on financial markets.
Hurst Cycles
For many years I have been using Hurst Cycles to analyze and trade
financial markets, from forex to futures and everything in between. JM Hurst
was an American engineer who published two seminal works in the 1970s:
a book titled The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, and a workshop
course, the Hurst Cyclitec Cycles Course.
In his work he lays the foundation for a theory which describes how the
prices of financial markets are moved by cycles. His work earned him the
reputation of being the father of modern cycle analysis, and his cyclic
principles have stood the test of time: the cycles that Hurst identified in the 1970s are still
beating with the same rhythm today.
In essence Hursts cyclic principles explain how multiple cycles influence price to move
up and down. These cycles are not fixed. The wavelength and amplitude of each cycle varies
constantly (Hursts Principle of Variation), although the relationships between the collection of
cycles which make up the cyclic model are constant.
Using an analysis process described in Hursts Cycles Course we are able to determine
the current phasing of each of the cycles, as well as determine their recent wavelength and
amplitude.
The result of the analysis is then proudly presented on a chart such as this one of the
EURUSD forex pair:
forex pair:
Figure 1: A Hurst Cycles analysis of the EURUSD, presented with Hursts diamonds.
Because cycles are (by definition) the expression of a regularly repeating behavior,
we expect them to repeat what they have done before (with some variation)
At first glance that might not seem very wonderful, but the point is this: because cycles
repeat, if we are able to identify what they did in the past, we have the basis for making
projections into the future.
And so the true benefit of a Hurst cycles analysis is not to simply identify what various
cycles have been doing in the past, but to use that information to help us understand what is
going to happen in the future.
An experienced Hurst analyst is able to look at the chart above and form an idea of what to
expect as we move into the future. But that is a fairly arcane skill, and there is a complex art
to it because we know that cycles constantly vary.
Here is the CML on the same chart of the EURUSD forex pair:
Figure 2: The Composite Model Line superimposed over price of the EURUSD.
Figure 3: The CML indicates that we should not expect a big move down.
First the positive: the chart above shows that price is expected to move down into a trough
of the 40-week cycle in November (the nest-of-lows mentioned earlier), but it is not expected
to be a very strong move down. The CML achieves something that it is very hard for a human
analyst to get right combining the effect of all the cycles.
But why do I describe the projection as dangerous? Perhaps it is just me, but when I see
a line on a chart I have a tendency to attach significance to it. There is something about a
line on a chart that is very black and white, no room for uncertainty. And when it comes to
projecting cycles into the future, uncertainty is very much a part of the process.
Our cycle model is a dynamic model which gives us an indication of what we should expect.
This indication is based upon one very important presumption: that the cycles will continue to
beat with the same rhythm.
But we also know that the cycles will change (Hursts Principle of Variation), and so we are
ironically aware that our projection into the future is inevitably flawed.
And so the best we can do is work with the information that we have, and bear in mind
that it provides an inherently flawed projection. This brings to mind one of the SEC required
disclaimers about the trading of financial markets, which states that past performance is
no guarantee of future profits. This has always struck me as a worrying disclaimer, because
surely we make all of our decisions on the basis of past information? And when considering a
trade, we rely heavily upon the past performance of the trading process we are using.
As a cycle analyst and trader it is a particularly ironic disclaimer. The concept that what
has happened before will happen again is at the core of everything we do and every trade we
The above analysis is largely based on the premise that a 4 year cycle formed a trough in
March of this year. If that turns out to be incorrect, we would need to perform a new analysis,
and put those cycles back into the market, and see what they say then.
If you would like to learn more about Hurst Cycles please take a look at our free educational
material: http://0s4.com/r/HRSTTW
David Hickson has been trading financial markets for over 20 years. He created Sentient Trader
(http://sentienttrader.com), a software application which analyzes any financial market using
the exact process presented by Hurst. David is South African and lives in Italy.
www.tradersworld.com Nov/Dec/Jan 2016 109
We dont see things as they are, we
see things as we are. Anas Nin
By Chaig Haugaard
Starting with the year 2000 we have seen the December corn futures trade lower on October 1st than
they were on May 1st an amazing 75% of the time and on average they have been $0.31/bu lower on
October 1st than they were on May 1st. One cant help but look at that pattern, reflect on the afore mentioned
lab animals versus human test subject results and conclude that perhaps there is a pattern here that we
need to take advantage of. In other words, instead of over thinking this situation maybe we would be better
off to just pick green.
While the evidence is compelling that a seasonal pattern exists for corn one would be ill advised to
blindly sell December corn futures on May 1st and then buy them back on October 1st. Rather, what has
been proven effective is to use technical indicators to target an optimum time to enter this trade. For the
sake of this article we will assume that the best selling opportunities for corn come in the March through
July time period. In this time period we will answer the concerns over number of acres planted, planting
conditions and weather challenges. It is on this time period we will focus in making our trades based on the
combination of seasonal patterns and technical analysis.
To illustrate how this works in practice lets look at the December 2015 corn chart. The first thing that
you will notice is that within the time frame that we designated as the time we wanted to short this market
we had some good opportunities to sell at much better levels than where the market is currently trading.
This was also a classic year from the standpoint that the uncertainty of the too months reared its ugly head
and presented the opportunity we were looking for. In this case, the eastern Corn Belt was too wet and
Using a combination of technical tools to tell us when to enter this seasonal trade has been an effective
approach. As illustrated on the preceding chart I go with a ten day moving average, stochastics and the
MACD. Sales are made when all three indicators are giving a sell signal and we are in the time frame that
has been identified as an optimal seasonal period in which to be selling. The work has been done and it is
time to pull the trigger.
To exit the positions I use the same set of indicators and exit the position when they tell me to. Although
it may seem simplistic, for me the key to success has been to become more like a rat in search of an easy
meal and less of an over analytical human being.
craig_haugaard@hotmail.com
In my search for the ideal moving averages (MA) which most closely reflects the main
market trend, many years ago I uncovered by process of elimination the two MAs which
captured most of the important immediate-term moves in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).
The combo in question is the 5-day and 15-day simple moving average series. Since I
define the immediate-term as 1-3 weeks in duration, it makes sense that the 5-day MA
corresponds to exactly one trading week while the 15-day MA is equivalent to three weeks.
Thus the entire immediate-term time frame is captured in these two simple moving averages.
Whats more, when dealing with moving averages were not just looking at simple trend
lines which answer to the number of days in the moving average itself. For instance, a 5-day
moving average isnt merely the equivalent of a 5-day market trend. Moving averages are
by definition a lagging indicator, but they also represent half-cycles. A 5-day moving average
is capturing not only a 2-week cycle in the stock or market index were following, but it also
reflects a 6-week cycle. Viewed from this perspective, the 5-day/15-day MA combo can be
said to capture the spectrum of cycles from one week to six weeks.
In most cases swing traders should be focused solely on the 15-day moving average to
the exclusion of the 5-day moving average in our stock market overview. The guidelines of
this trading discipline tell us to wait for a 2-day higher close above the 15-day MA (which we
recognize as the dominant immediate-term trend line) before considering purchasing a stock
or ETF. (Other technical factors must be in place before entering a trade aside from a 2-day
higher close above the 15-day MA, but for the purpose of this discussion well ignore them). In
perhaps most instances the 5-day MA can be safely ignored since its not of primary concern
to the dominant market trend.
Following is a recent chart example of the 15-day MA buy signal. After the broad market
decline in August 2015, the Russell 1000 Growth Index (RLG) confirmed an immediate-term
bottom in September by closing two days higher above its 15-day moving average. After this
RLG re-tested the August low but confirmed it by closing above it. From there the RLG rallied
in October and ended up completely recovering its losses from the August selling panic.
After a major market low has been established, its important to watch the 5-day moving
average in conjunction with the 15-day MA. After a panic decline, such as the one that
happened in August 2015, watch for the first 2-day close above the 5-day MA. Unlike the
15-day MA, the 2-day close above the 5-day MA doesnt have to be a higher close. In other
words, as long as price closes two days in succession above the 5-day moving average thats
all that matters.
The following chart example shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in relation to its
5-day and 15-day MAs during the July-October 2015 period. Notice that almost immediately
after the late August sell-off, the Dow closed two days in succession above the 5-day MA to
confirm a preliminary bottom. Not long after this, the Dow confirmed the immediate-term
bottom by closing two days higher above its 15-day MA.
Clif Droke is a recognized authority on moving averages, internal momentum and Kress
Cycles, three valuable tools as applied to the equity market. He is the editor of the Momentum
Strategies Report newsletter, published three times a week since 1997. He has also authored
several books on trading and technical analysis, including his most recent one, Mastering
Moving Averages. For more information visitwww.clifdroke.com
My success story is not unique. I am not the first individual to find a way to know the direction
of stocks or the stock market. A great many have come before me. Here are a few of their
names:
Jessie Livermore, W. D. Gann, E. H. Harriman, Augustus D. Julliard, Richard Ney, Bernard
Baruch, Joseph P. Kennedy, Jim Simons, and Steven A. Cohen.
As I have, each of these men found their own individual way to know the direction of stocks or
the market.
I have found a mathematical way to know why and when certain stocks are at a Top or a
Bottom. August 2014
But that is impossible, right? It is impossible to know when a stock is at a Top or Bottom! If
you are thinking this same thought, history says you are in the company of nearly all stock &
market analysts.
The honest truth all professionals, true professionals know that its not possible. You may
believe that it is but very few pros even care about direction anymore. Its all strategy now.
Directional picks are a dead business .
Tom Sosnoff, founder of Thinkorswim and Tastytrade.com., December 30, 2014
However, recorded history also speaks to the fact that those who issue statements of
impossibility are often proven wrong in the future.
For example, remember when high speed trains, rockets leaving the Earths atmosphere,
heavier-than-air flying machines, horseless carriages, moving pictures, lightbulbs and wireless
communications were said to be impossible?
If it is impossible to know in real time, when a stock is at a top or bottom, then such a feat
cannot be performed at all, not even once, let alone multiple times in a row.
Then how can these Real Time BUY and SELL signals be explained?
Yeah, anyone can put stock price charts here and claim to have known these indicated sell and
buy signals in Real Time. Right?
EXCEPT for this researcher. You see, I deliberately removed the Time Sine Wave Analysis
charts that are located directly beneath these price charts. AND, it is those unique, proprietary
Real Time Charts that constitute the mathematical proof of the statement I made at the
beginning of this article:
I have found a mathematical way to know why and when certain stocks are at a Top
or a Bottom. August 2014
PLUS, I have the Real Time data, minute by minute, generated for these stocks to prove beyond
www.tradersworld.com Nov/Dec/Jan 2016 119
a shadow of a doubt the truth of my opening statement.
The impossible dream sought by the author was not accomplished overnight.
The following has been my personal quest for the past thirty plus years:
If successful such a scientific method could render archaic and obsolete, such technical analysis
tools as oscillators, moving averages, bands, P/E ratios, volume, volatility, stochastics, etc., as
well as reduce or eliminate the use of complex trading straddles and strategies.
No. 1
No. 2
THE LAW of TIME MOTION
All Time motion begins at an Equilibrium, seeks a point of rest, and returns to a Time
Equilibrium from when it began.
Of the Three Laws of Motion cited above, the author has proven Dr. Russells Law of Motion to be
the correct one for Market Time calculations. Rephrased in terms of mathematical Time, it says
A Definition of Equilibrium:
A state in which opposing forces or influences are balanced.
Further, in order to get the correct mathematical ending for Time, there must be the correct
mathematical beginning. This means that where mathematical Time begins, it must begin at a
1:1 Equilibrium. This fact is in perfect harmony with classical physics, which says:
Every action (motion, force, vector etc.,) in one direction is opposed by an equal action in the
opposite direction.
Market Time Value is observed to be present in stock options. The professional and amateur
market enthusiast understands the following fact: Call options with strikes beneath the stock
price, and Put options with strikes above the stock price contain two values: Time and Distance
(intrinsic).
In the interest of brevity, the author states the following fact based on decades of research via
trial and error:
After applying the Laws of Time and Time Motion individually to these two unique values over
many years of testing, only one was proven to meet the scientific standard of REPEATABILITY
and RELIABILITY: TIME Value.
The following graphic is a representative example of where the author finds Stock Time value
used in his calculations. By answering the question that follows, the reader will understand the
basic method for calculating starting Equilibrium Time Values:
Starting at the correct beginning for an individual Time Cycle, here is what Real Time data
reveals:
Well, there is a very big SO WHAT? about the above Time value facts:
These facts graphed in Real Time inform the author as to when and in which direction
the stock must move!
This is accomplished by beginning CALL and PUT Time value at Constant Equilibrium Time
Values at the true starting point. When graphically displayed together in Real Time, The Time
Law and The Time Law of Motion informs the author when and in which direction the stock
must move!
All Time motion begins at a mathematical 1:1 Equilibrium, seeks a point of Rest, and
must go back to a mathematical Equilibrium where it began.
When PUT and Call Time Chart in an expiring Time Cycle chart looks like this:
the author knows the stock price must go down to get CALL and PUT Time to a 1:1 CALL
PUT Time Equilibrium value by Expiration Day, per The Law of Time Motion.
Please note the fact that the July Time Cycle above was expiring in less than 30 days.
When PUT and Call Time Chart in an expiring Time Cycle chart looks like this:
Please note the fact that the September Time Cycle above was expiring in less than 40 days.
To confirm the Time truths revealed in the two graphic illustrations above please review the
section herein titled:
In PART 2 to follow, I will be illustrating and explaining with text and Real Time Charts, the
following:
All stocks with options have only three True Time Cycles.
How these three True Time Cycles interplay with the mathematics of The Time Law and The
Law of Time Motion to cause stock prices to go up and down.
Larry Jacobs
A few weeks back Jim, a newer client, called knowing a few simple tips and tricks to solve
in panicked. He was super frustrated that he computer issues as they come at us. Because
had just upgraded his trading computer to a they will. We cant circumvent that as much
new model and now had a horrible case of as we would like to.
data lag. He wasnt able to trade at all at
this point. He was upset. Wouldnt you be? If you ever come up against a data lag
If youve been in a situation like this before, issue yourself, here is what you need to know:
you know what this does to a perfectly good
day takes it down a notch or two. Traders 1. Whats The Most Common Causes
shouldnt have to deal with data lag. In fact, Of Data Lag?
Im on a mission to call data lag extinct. Really,
Underpowered Processors
it shouldnt happen.
If you have an EZ Trading Computer, I
Jim and I walked through some steps to
assure you all of our machines can process
troubleshooting his issue. Jim look, I dont
real time data. However, lots of traders have
want to overlook anything in solving this
older machines. This might be the source of
quickly for you. Hows your internet speed? I
your issue. Computer hardware has a shelf life
asked him. He assured me his connection was
of five years before it becomes so outdated
high speed. Do me a favor, lets test it really
that it is unable to keep up with advances
quick to we can mark it off our list of possible
in software and data speeds especially for
sources. Much to his surprise, the results
traders. Even computers you could go buy
were not good. In fact, his speeds were yo-
right now off the shelf at your local store, with
yoing up and down to the point that every few
i3 or i5 processors, arent going to get the job
minutes he pretty much had no connection at
done for you.
all. He was surprised. I just assumed because
my computer was working one minute and
Internet Speed
not the next that something was up with the
We often make the mistake of taking our
hardware, Jim responded.
internet speeds for face value. We check a box
We have all done this. We assume the
with our internet provider saying we want a
problem is a big issue and overlook the small
certain speed, and assume that is what is being
stuff. Granted, sometimes its a bigger issue.
delivered to us at all times. This most often just
This wasnt the case for Jim. He was panicked,
isnt the case. If you live in a neighborhood or
couldnt trade and immediately started
area that has lots of users on your providers
thinking his whole setup was broken. Even a
lines, its likely that your connection might ebb
small kink in the chain can cause issues that
and flow depending on how many other users
cost us time and money.
are logged on. Be persistent with contacting
Thats why there is so much value in
your internet provider if you are experiencing
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Seasonality
MACD
Stochastics
Moving Averages
Trailing Stops
Fibonacci Retracements & Extensions
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