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3D Printer Wars:

An Industry
Primer
Black Arbs: Research
09/12/2013
1
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Concept (3)
The Process Explained (4)
The Market Ecosystem (5)
3d Printing Applications (6)
Industries using 3d Printing Applications (7)
Organizations utilizing 3d Printing (8)
3d Printing Methods (9-13)
Market Size (14)
Market Share (15)
3d Printing Industry in Context (16)
Conclusion (17)

Table of Contents 2
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To create 3-dimensional objects using an additive


process. This process builds the object by stacking
individual layers. Layers are thinly sliced horizontal
cross sections composed of various powders, metals,
plastics and alloys.

Concept 3
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1. It begins with a digital computer aided design (CAD)


file created in software or scanned using input from
3d scanner(s). The software then formats the
design into the object layers to be sent to the
printer.
2. A 3d printer then constructs the object by stacking
the previously designed object layers. This is called
additive manufacturing. Compare that to
traditional subtractive processes including, cutting,
drilling, milling or machining.

The Process Explained 4


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Manufacturers include: 3d Systems Corp (DDD), Stratasys


(SSYS), Organovo (ONVO), ARCAM AB (AMAVF), Ex One
(XONE) et al.
Software Producers: Dassault Systemes SA (DASTY),
Parametric Technology (PMTC), Autodesk (ADSK), Trimble
Navigation (TRMB)
3d Scanners/Metrology: Align Technologies (ALGN), 3m
(MMM), GE (GE), Faro (FARO)
Print and Deliver Services: Shapeways, Ponoko
Collective Design/Model Repositories: ThingVerse, 3D Parts
Database, 3D Warehouse

Market Ecosystem 5
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Rapid Prototyping: fast design and construction of


objects used for R&D purposes. Ex. Car Companies,
Aerospace Industry
Rapid Manufacturing: direct manufacturing of
finished goods.
Retail Customization: retail users can upload or input
personal goods via internet for single or limited
production runs
Medical: development of medical uses in dental care,
prosthetics, bio printed tissues, and organ R&D.

3d Printing Applications 6
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Aerospace/Defense
Architecture/Geo
Arts/Entertainment
Automotive
Consumer
Culinary
Education
Energy
Healthcare
Hobbyist
Jewelry

Industries using 3d
Printing Applications 7
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NASA Boeing
GE Xerox
Nike UPS
Ford Harvard
Mattel North Carolina State
MIT Pfizer
European Union Knight Cancer Institute
Southampton University United Therapeutics
(U.K.) University of Oxford
NYU Deloitte
U.S. Army Et al

Organizations utilizing 3d
Printing 8
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Stereolithography (SLA) Invented by 3d systems


founder Charles Hull in 1986.
SLA works by concentrating a beam of ultraviolet light
focused on surface of a Vat.
Vat is filled with liquid photocurable photopolymer
(resin).
UV laser beam draws out the 3d model layer by layer,
hardening the slice as light hits the resin.

3d Printing Methods 9
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Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) Invented by


Stratasys founder Scott Crump, late 1980s.
Object is produced by an extrusion nozzle extruding
small beads of melted thermoplastic material to form
layers that harden immediately.
Most FDM printers print with ABS plastic, ex. Legos
which uses type PLA (Polylactic acid) which is
biodegradable.
FDM and Fused Deposition Modeling are trademarked
terms.

3d Printing Methods 10
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Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) RepRap process


similar to FDM but slightly different to avoid
trademark issues.
Material is fed via filament from a spool of the material.
Via filament FFF is able to construct the object

3d Printing Methods 11
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Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) Process developed


by Carl Deckard et al in the 1980s.
Uses powdered materials: polystyrene, ceramics, glass,
nylon, steel, titanium, aluminum, silver.
When a laser hits the powder it is fused at that point
(sintered). All un-sintered powder remains available for
the next print job.

3d Printing Methods 12
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Selective Laser Melting (SLM) similar to SLS but


fully melts the powder instead of fusing via a lower
temp
Electron Beam Melting (EBM) uses an electron
beam instead of the UV laser used in SLS process.
Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM) layers of
adhesive coated paper, plastic, or metal laminates are
successively glued together and cut to shape with a
knife or laser cutter.

3d Printing Methods -
Variations 13
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Wohlers, an industry consulting group, has estimated global revenues will approach $6 billion by 2017 and
10.8 billion by 2021. Here I have backed out the global growth rates based on publicly available excerpts
from their extensive report.

3d Printing Industry Global Revenue Estimates


$12.00 35.0%
10.81
30.0%
$10.00 9.19

7.81 25.0%
$8.00
6.64
20.0%
Billions

$6.00 5.64
4.80 15.0%
4.08
$4.00 3.47
2.76 10.0%
2.20
$2.00 1.70
5.0%

$0.00 0.0%
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E

Global Revenue (lhs) Growth (rhs)

Market Size 14
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Using Wohlers estimated total industry revenue in 2012 of $2.2 billion dollars, we can back out an estimated market
share for some of the well known publicly traded manufacturers.

3d Printer Market Share est.

DDD
16%

SSYS DDD
10%
SSYS
XONE
1% XONE
Arcam
Arcam
Others 1% Others
72%

Market Share 15
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In 2011 the World Bank estimated global GDP at $70.4 Of the ~$12 trillion in GDP contributed by global
trillion. Of this global manufacturing contributed almost manufacturing only ~$1.7 billion came from additive/3d
$12 trillion. printing or 0.014%!

$ Contribution to Global GDP $ Contribution to Global


Manufacturing GDP
% of Total Global GDP (in Billions)

100%
90% $11,963.1 $1.7
100%

% of Total Global GDP (in Billions)


80%
70% 80%
60% GDP Total Global
50% Manufacturing 60% 3d Global
$58,408.3 Manufacturing
40% GDP All Other $11,961.4
30% Industries 40% GDP Global
20% Manufacturing ex. 3d
10% 20%
0%
0%
2011
2011

3d Printing Industry in
Context 16
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The industry has existed for almost 30 years but recent advances in technology have led to rapid
innovation in retail, commercial, and medical applications that have the industry poised to almost
triple by 2017 (Wohlers).
Two firms dominate the industry based on sales 3d Systems (16% market share), Stratasys (10%).
But there are many other firms contributing to the 3d printing ecosystem that may or may not be
public, and may or may not be exclusive to the 3d printing industry.
Currently manufacturers are looking to find ways to integrate additive manufacturing in their
production process as they have found significant cost reductions in prototyping, industrial design,
custom orders, and some direct production of finished goods.
The industry is in its infancy and has immense potential for growth on an absolute and relative basis.
As a percentage of global manufacturing GDP, 3d printing contributed a paltry 0.014% in 2011. As
new applications are discovered and old processes refined a hypothetical increase to 1% of global
manufacturing GDP would grow the market to $119 billion or 70x larger than it was in 2011.
3d printing has the manufacturing sectors support due to its actualized and unrealized potential to
reduce production and time costs; to innovate, customize, and prototype; to create previously
impossible design structures, and this presents a tailwind to a secular growth opportunity similar to
the pc revolution.
Perhaps the greatest commercial opportunity lies within the healthcare sector. Currently researchers
at universities, firms, and public institutions are collaborating to develop 3d printers capable of
replicating the native structure and processes of cells and eventually organs. The potential in this
area to improve the human condition cannot be overstated.

Wrap-up 17
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Brian Christopher
BCR@BlackArbs.com
BlackArbs.com
617.642.9211

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