Sales Forecast

Sales Dollars In Millions

Customers Yhis Year Next Year

Big Guy $25.80 =1+TRIANINV(RAND(),-0.03,0.02,0.08)
Littile Guy $5.20 =NORMINV(RAND(),C6,0.15*C6)
Zero-OneGuy $2.00 =2*BINOMINV(RAND(),1,0.6)
Total Sales SimTable =SUM(C5:C7) =SUM(D5:D7)
0 33 6.5250583581
0.002008 33 5.9739042748
0.0040161 33 8.2293694764
0.0060241 33 6.3078021308
0.0080321 33 7.4253606842
0.0100402 33 7.4331335971
0.0120482 33 7.3353152967
0.0140562 33 6.4465111925
0.0160643 33 8.2512340467
0.0180723 33 7.3447012476
0.0200803 33 5.0996577509
0.0220884 33 8.2058256405
0.0240964 33 5.3978250125
0.0261044 33 8.4269618427
0.0281124 33 5.1362042668
0.0301205 33 8.226741226
0.0321285 33 6.63550117
0.0341365 33 5.9336294984
0.0361446 33 7.1645801668
0.0381526 33 5.6723286998
0.0401606 33 7.9536996288
0.0421687 33 8.7737182623
0.0441767 33 7.4856645571
0.0461847 33 6.7198239921
0.0481928 33 8.2801878693
0.0502008 33 7.7967987358
0.0522088 33 9.3291475183
0.0542169 33 6.6243312669
0.0562249 33 7.0224458183
0.0582329 33 5.1440910167
0.060241 33 6.1227699411
0.062249 33 5.5783562272
0.064257 33 7.3617352683
0.0662651 33 6.9130579441
0.0682731 33 7.8974755406
0.0702811 33 7.938497676
0.0722892 33 6.9423301833
0.0742972 $33.00 5.8954279052
0.0763052 33 7.1308873929
0.0783133 33 6.1262384653
0.0803213 33 5.3503470705
0.0823293 33 8.339681097
0.0843373 33 8.0996979029
0.0863454 33 9.8855901831
0.0883534 33 7.1270255308
0.0903614 33 5.2386598474
0.0923695 33 8.3059531561
0.0943775 33 7.3775375909
0.0963855 33 8.9581137891
0.0983936 33 5.8297239959
0.1004016 33 6.2456192816
0.1024096 33 8.6651196331
0.1044177 33 8.7184812832
0.1064257 33 9.6684391382
0.1084337 33 7.5154503659
0.1104418 33 6.3641798493
0.1124498 33 8.0961485246
0.1144578 33 6.4580754664
0.1164659 33 8.1917416152
0.1184739 33 8.1981267086
0.1204819 33 7.1952124218
0.12249 33 8.096849199
0.124498 33 7.9287558569
0.126506 33 9.0922943549
0.1285141 33 6.6545867197
0.1305221 33 5.9060800559
0.1325301 33 8.3739129325
0.1345382 33 6.3279376777
0.1365462 33 5.3223915153
0.1385542 33 7.3299201412
0.1405622 33 8.9691746689
0.1425703 33 7.5433704777
0.1445783 33 7.4332994826
0.1465863 33 7.815702871
0.1485944 33 8.5426432019
0.1506024 $33.00 8.5345334506
0.1526104 33 8.9821397633
0.1546185 33 7.0712861719
0.1566265 33 8.5923558932
0.1586345 33 7.5544049893
0.1606426 33 8.4762917209
0.1626506 33 8.7287068514
0.1646586 33 7.6137721965
0.1666667 33 9.4968765799
0.1686747 33 7.5746140443
0.1706827 33 8.741099802
0.1726908 33 8.4480427411
0.1746988 33 7.8543943259
0.1767068 33 6.1657266261
0.1787149 33 6.7839007013
0.1807229 33 6.2844187078
0.1827309 33 7.9580905318
0.184739 33 9.1039813327
0.186747 33 6.9727324104
0.188755 33 6.5361727362
0.1907631 33 7.711171084
0.1927711 33 8.0939569348
0.1947791 33 6.4583725398
0.1967871 33 6.8662834118
0.1987952 33 8.59283795
0.2008032 33 6.0670769039
0.2028112 33 7.8745573913
0.2048193 33 6.206647831
0.2068273 33 5.8998790894
0.2088353 33 8.9858221223
0.2108434 33 5.6157497492
0.2128514 33 4.6120896003
0.2148594 33 6.965651013
0.2168675 33 5.6985997426
0.2188755 33 8.6602130718
0.2208835 33 8.5860106418
0.2228916 33 8.065608959
0.2248996 33 7.9369260086
0.2269076 $33.00 5.9289095229
0.2289157 33 9.4457123676
0.2309237 33 5.8692146119
0.2329317 33 7.0616371889
0.2349398 33 8.4939594496
0.2369478 33 8.1319060744
0.2389558 33 7.7944129974
0.2409639 33 7.7244444251
0.2429719 33 5.9215046564
0.2449799 33 5.7616807585
0.246988 33 8.0387358915
0.248996 33 8.330884954
0.251004 33 8.6412811113
0.253012 33 6.4802781166
0.2550201 33 7.2496698897
0.2570281 33 6.4355904268
0.2590361 33 7.545343291
0.2610442 33 8.844152842
0.2630522 33 8.5427920072
0.2650602 33 7.8872418799
0.2670683 33 6.5617337166
0.2690763 33 6.8372622359
0.2710843 33 9.1897349908
0.2730924 33 6.0096309336
0.2751004 33 5.7133603256
0.2771084 33 7.4200896663
0.2791165 33 8.8841474232
0.2811245 33 7.5561591369
0.2831325 33 6.431095053
0.2851406 33 6.5651906036
0.2871486 33 7.0745420528
0.2891566 33 8.7509610299
0.2911647 33 7.3353758471
0.2931727 33 6.5331740562
0.2951807 33 6.4835665666
0.2971888 33 8.589476254
0.2991968 33 7.0520070915
0.3012048 33 8.326984929
0.3032129 $33.00 5.7041121831
0.3052209 33 7.3844614913
0.3072289 33 9.2942447591
0.3092369 33 6.0383504989
0.311245 33 5.7898901599
0.313253 33 6.9107828862
0.315261 33 7.2106977029
0.3172691 33 6.660723727
0.3192771 33 9.7427549797
0.3212851 33 8.8733649655
0.3232932 33 9.131099016
0.3253012 33 6.4462741894
0.3273092 33 5.4987735673
0.3293173 33 6.2065487286
0.3313253 33 7.6006246472
0.3333333 33 7.6076734907
0.3353414 33 9.6303361206
0.3373494 33 8.6625548229
0.3393574 33 5.8633539287
0.3413655 33 8.1346759582
0.3433735 33 9.3711855842
0.3453815 33 7.6990913436
0.3473896 33 8.9056173219
0.3493976 33 9.3581812788
0.3514056 33 7.376438439
0.3534137 33 9.3113334258
0.3554217 33 7.2468876893
0.3574297 33 6.3483660665
0.3594378 33 8.6605167243
0.3614458 33 7.3702959689
0.3634538 33 6.149873311
0.3654618 33 8.6722611021
0.3674699 33 8.4277711327
0.3694779 33 8.4086681815
0.3714859 33 9.4887636075
0.373494 33 5.5593159279
0.375502 33 7.5453362677
0.37751 33 9.0800993861
0.3795181 $33.00 8.6406660781
0.3815261 33 8.0916573394
0.3835341 33 5.126059724
0.3855422 33 8.2213918717
0.3875502 33 9.9660254245
0.3895582 33 5.966053758
0.3915663 33 8.1181259814
0.3935743 33 9.0917707073
0.3955823 33 7.9435295113
0.3975904 33 8.4134667309
0.3995984 33 8.5412690279
0.4016064 33 7.5113607732
0.4036145 33 6.7977733333
0.4056225 33 7.1180212714
0.4076305 33 9.4159691378
0.4096386 33 5.4699844987
0.4116466 33 8.7855758286
0.4136546 33 8.8633605923
0.4156627 33 5.2762633205
0.4176707 33 7.759608135
0.4196787 33 9.3460263263
0.4216867 33 8.1342928536
0.4236948 33 8.3201875904
0.4257028 33 8.0344738991
0.4277108 33 8.0270370197
0.4297189 33 7.6623438255
0.4317269 33 9.702055974
0.4337349 33 8.9734909047
 0.435743 33 6.8346607324
0.437751 33 7.5010419802
0.439759 33 6.6300877622
0.4417671 33 8.2920406288
0.4437751 33 5.7065496543
0.4457831 33 8.6014412045
0.4477912 33 6.5634346287
0.4497992 33 8.0699687594
0.4518072 33 8.2104140954
0.4538153 33 8.6388096639
0.4558233 $33.00 7.9282192235
0.4578313 33 6.4990891334
0.4598394 33 8.896985887
0.4618474 33 5.1715449774
0.4638554 33 8.1749206395
0.4658635 33 9.0051226344
0.4678715 33 9.2300072281
0.4698795 33 6.3045975778
0.4718876 33 7.853202789
0.4738956 33 7.2571000024
0.4759036 33 7.3976189545
0.4779116 33 7.9093505751
0.4799197 33 5.4997273222
0.4819277 33 5.845217853
0.4839357 33 7.6710431774
0.4859438 33 9.8162444498
0.4879518 33 6.9816373317
0.4899598 33 9.0410855442
0.4919679 33 7.1360005184
0.4939759 33 8.731310221
0.4959839 33 7.6198809281
0.497992 33 7.2416237482
0.5 33 8.6980872835
0.502008 33 7.0156850602
0.5040161 33 5.4023231838
0.5060241 33 5.7304595859
0.5080321 33 5.147924126
0.5100402 33 7.0009234658
0.5120482 33 8.670725879
0.5140562 33 8.2594152276
0.5160643 33 8.1546568113
0.5180723 33 5.9079907665
0.5200803 33 4.9777035631
0.5220884 33 7.2898942178
0.5240964 33 6.4536931772
0.5261044 33 4.8711431767
0.5281124 33 7.3011482723
0.5301205 33 6.0518833579
0.5321285 $33.00 8.2244704018
0.5341365 33 7.9020235127
0.5361446 33 8.2557421853
0.5381526 33 6.1856131027
0.5401606 33 7.9445532741
0.5421687 33 8.7836110162
0.5441767 33 9.1141569604
0.5461847 33 9.2890256307
0.5481928 33 5.4813747391
0.5502008 33 9.0507124088
0.5522088 33 7.7829654676
0.5542169 33 6.2507185743
0.5562249 33 8.6516756824
0.5582329 33 7.1603247679
0.560241 33 6.3461275549
0.562249 33 6.3828814691
0.564257 33 6.1277639079
0.5662651 33 8.3471431766
0.5682731 33 7.6697703029
0.5702811 33 7.6085035002
0.5722892 33 7.0604572984
0.5742972 33 9.4689530995
0.5763052 33 6.490818267
0.5783133 33 8.7330782788
0.5803213 33 9.0148757152
0.5823293 33 8.2117253073
0.5843373 33 8.3103543237
0.5863454 33 8.0526158578
0.5883534 33 6.0467718408
0.5903614 33 7.102500871
0.5923695 33 8.7043546368
0.5943775 33 8.0687311526
0.5963855 33 7.2853344477
0.5983936 33 8.3439285476
0.6004016 33 6.9427227656
0.6024096 33 7.7885965225
0.6044177 33 4.7863319601
0.6064257 33 6.2508707557
0.6084337 $33.00 9.2785969741
0.6104418 33 7.0596009552
0.6124498 33 8.0784960938
0.6144578 33 8.5680282509
0.6164659 33 7.1160325676
0.6184739 33 7.960968141
0.6204819 33 8.7677716965
0.62249 33 5.2004650442
0.624498 33 8.0142407563
0.626506 33 7.6706478177
0.6285141 33 5.9025060526
0.6305221 33 6.9716824028
0.6325301 33 7.6087648555
0.6345382 33 9.218876776
0.6365462 33 8.9708337069
0.6385542 33 7.7028669036
0.6405622 33 8.9180383258
0.6425703 33 5.699390277
0.6445783 33 8.9949041051
0.6465863 33 5.9620510229
0.6485944 33 7.0222647501
0.6506024 33 6.9004119534
0.6526104 33 8.7872175988
0.6546185 33 6.4938267999
0.6566265 33 8.764346927
0.6586345 33 7.7504281118
0.6606426 33 6.9730679638
0.6626506 33 8.3296739933
0.6646586 33 8.4766567761
0.6666667 33 8.0657031716
0.6686747 33 8.4229455892
0.6706827 33 6.5273771152
0.6726908 33 8.9024696799
0.6746988 33 7.8929721946
0.6767068 33 7.6086671203
0.6787149 33 9.8509092118
0.6807229 33 7.8104470758
0.6827309 33 7.1758284855
0.684739 $33.00 6.3708133143
0.686747 33 7.9748974559
0.688755 33 8.0388941483
0.6907631 33 6.6182421492
0.6927711 33 6.3283265467
0.6947791 33 8.4700393712
0.6967871 33 6.0974337923
0.6987952 33 7.2690435658
0.7008032 33 7.8497316709
0.7028112 33 6.8856786509
0.7048193 33 4.8277158354
0.7068273 33 7.3284963419
0.7088353 33 6.2758900261
0.7108434 33 7.9082235268
0.7128514 33 7.8725571945
0.7148594 33 9.071454879
0.7168675 33 8.0727048135
0.7188755 33 6.3042481084
0.7208835 33 7.4594110166
0.7228916 33 8.4168354859
0.7248996 33 8.1525862215
0.7269076 33 7.6802224557
0.7289157 33 9.6480860359
0.7309237 33 5.133288891
0.7329317 33 7.0221142278
0.7349398 33 9.789381324
0.7369478 33 7.8485207763
0.7389558 33 5.3558723449
0.7409639 33 8.9467822213
0.7429719 33 9.2119174104
0.7449799 33 5.7835181025
0.746988 33 6.6043271701
0.748996 33 6.7271931166
0.751004 33 6.9211450997
0.753012 33 8.3340961235
0.7550201 33 8.6993208069
0.7570281 33 8.3097019606
0.7590361 33 7.2904282672
0.7610442 $33.00 7.0263807205
0.7630522 33 7.0296001381
0.7650602 33 7.3032224925
0.7670683 33 9.1232426705
0.7690763 33 8.3861206572
0.7710843 33 6.9727038815
0.7730924 33 8.1198625584
0.7751004 33 9.5084791823
0.7771084 33 5.8409859025
0.7791165 33 8.4593449063
0.7811245 33 5.513026446
0.7831325 33 7.3107875727
0.7851406 33 9.2624030436
0.7871486 33 8.0972428959
0.7891566 33 7.5743108285
0.7911647 33 6.9040596071
0.7931727 33 7.1270722519
0.7951807 33 8.5058432014
0.7971888 33 5.5090304546
0.7991968 33 9.2540395445
0.8012048 33 8.2448239192
0.8032129 33 6.6283755173
0.8052209 33 8.0187705526
0.8072289 33 8.3934121674
0.8092369 33 5.5244929647
0.811245 33 5.0514502828
0.813253 33 8.858996778
0.815261 33 7.7141661571
0.8172691 33 8.0474622497
0.8192771 33 8.8238466114
0.8212851 33 7.354391893
0.8232932 33 7.7495753926
0.8253012 33 9.4105650015
0.8273092 33 7.8948994611
0.8293173 33 7.6036616039
0.8313253 33 6.1687088677
0.8333333 33 4.9394796719
0.8353414 33 5.8359388961
0.8373494 $33.00 9.444555828
0.8393574 33 7.9177493367
0.8413655 33 8.807858498
0.8433735 33 6.9170214278
0.8453815 33 6.6827108894
0.8473896 33 6.6482131355
0.8493976 33 8.2212937161
0.8514056 33 7.1600385804
0.8534137 33 8.0130139682
0.8554217 33 7.4879823998
0.8574297 33 8.0013761605
0.8594378 33 7.7004397422
0.8614458 33 5.7513668006
0.8634538 33 5.7656498181
0.8654618 33 7.9671066446
0.8674699 33 6.8513952764
0.8694779 33 6.2987040386
0.8714859 33 7.9691911624
0.873494 33 8.6691855671
0.875502 33 7.7931424514
0.87751 33 7.3550629623
0.8795181 33 9.5536469846
0.8815261 33 6.8379595129
0.8835341 33 10.1229710519
0.8855422 33 8.6703420663
0.8875502 33 8.9708998299
0.8895582 33 4.9827839029
0.8915663 33 5.7706894437
0.8935743 33 8.3549018567
0.8955823 33 6.6643727244
0.8975904 33 6.6595510749
0.8995984 33 4.0117334009
0.9016064 33 7.3633848203
0.9036145 33 5.884284682
0.9056225 33 7.8406299343
0.9076305 33 8.156415839
0.9096386 33 7.6374013253
0.9116466 33 7.3302688823
0.9136546 $33.00 9.3180515952
0.9156627 33 7.0674937704
0.9176707 33 6.5109606415
0.9196787 33 7.2856847538
0.9216867 33 9.2755734835
0.9236948 33 6.4781769233
0.9257028 33 8.7257471662
0.9277108 33 9.3934019017
0.9297189 33 7.6806544164
0.9317269 33 7.6728970388
0.9337349 33 9.3976449024
0.935743 33 6.6873736231
0.937751 33 8.1940250229
0.939759 33 7.3601409246
0.9417671 33 7.5149551239
0.9437751 33 6.4383245597
0.9457831 33 6.1878270369
0.9477912 33 5.8246729476
0.9497992 33 9.9149666837
0.9518072 33 5.7774515048
0.9538153 33 8.522148338
0.9558233 33 8.0434594017
0.9578313 33 7.1420561957
0.9598394 33 5.6248427573
0.9618474 33 6.893479119
0.9638554 33 9.1629502774
0.9658635 33 6.9106519473
0.9678715 33 8.7357734562
0.9698795 33 6.6741076755
0.9718876 33 7.1685255911
0.9738956 33 8.4217658579
0.9759036 33 8.7762801163
0.9779116 33 7.4111548042
0.9799197 33 9.4566566855
0.9819277 33 6.7411505136
0.9839357 33 7.7898274523
0.9859438 33 5.7730333662
0.9879518 33 9.0572955326
0.9899598 $33.00 8.7365248451
0.9919679 33 7.3741535342
0.9939759 33 7.5280886333
0.9959839 33 8.5532482818
0.997992 33 7.2340347521
1 33 8.9468098023
 The Year After
=1+TRIANINV(RAND(),-0.03,0.02,0.08)
=NORMINV(RAND(),D6,0.15*D6)
=2*BINOMINV(RAND(),1,0.85)
=SUM(E5:E7) Sample mean
7.71621049 Sample STD
7.0764370823 25th Percentile
6.9227387347 50th Percentile
8.6010301239 75th Percentile
9.4096815492
9.9815407354
9.6170000417 95% Interval Exected
8.3990268045 LCL
8.2447254054 UCL
9.2469698714 (UCL-LCL)/2
7.5691880774
8.8799052219 95% Interval Actual
4.8799082517 LCL
7.9648411763 UCL
4.9043348906
7.4496535969
8.4698480876
7.3554249491
7.5969855669
7.0164087124
8.4675312602
9.1665328076
7.8289008811
4.0698997538
8.3982347229
6.8556660188
7.6084787259
7.8685595616
7.1345681465
8.0163639219
8.5014534319
7.7104268468
7.190644402
8.0317245784
8.345012633
7.2530699979
8.7022781799
7.1631121714
6.6582327856
6.6930693082
6.8273747811
5.1917811413
8.252099377
10.5016023782
8.3086411137
6.7034762414
8.8279616591
6.1369866754
7.4079135106
6.8299336536
5.2493399655
8.510287273
9.5160996027
9.543271007
7.237865025
6.856980826
5.9452878323
7.4928923175
8.3073191985
8.0611625119
9.6052544876
7.773709427
7.9002496525
8.3045372084
8.1056964394
5.2379227063
8.6411632316
7.2356318445
7.6945396352
9.2771187658
8.6174807168
9.0497754549
9.7728939126
9.1926371361
7.8473536137
9.0669157702
7.0862797937
7.0412807274
7.6108682712
7.8173721669
7.1429303103
8.2874742224
6.9496693982
10.2777495084
5.2486777136
7.8951000861
8.9527392351
7.0329162215
8.2121842806
6.6728395994
4.3122029777
8.8496802537
9.1863579396
6.0328723967
8.4567193914
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Next Year The Year After
=AVERAGE(D8:D507) =AVERAGE(E8:E507)
=STDEV(D8:D507) =STDEV(E8:E507)
=PERCENTILE(D8:D507,0.25) =PERCENTILE(E8:E507,0.25)
=PERCENTILE(D8:D507,0.5) =PERCENTILE(E8:E507,0.5)
=PERCENTILE(D8:D507,0.75) =PERCENTILE(E8:E507,0.75)

=H8-2*(H9/SQRT(500))
=H8+2*(H9/SQRT(500))
=(H17-H16)/2

=H8-2*(H9*SQRT(1+(1/500)))
=H8+2*(H9*SQRT(1+(1/500)))